Savannah Sports
4* Green Bay +135 (ML)
3* New England -3.5
2* Kansas -4.5
NHL PRO PICKS
Ottawa +120
Anaheim +230
Dallas +112
Triple Threat Sports
3* Arizona/Green Bay OVER
First off, throw out what Green Bay's defense did to the Matt Leinart and Brian St Pierre led offenses last week. It will be a different story with Kurt Warner at the helm. Consider that Warner has made 12 career playoff start and is 9-3 to the Over in those starts, with an 8-1 mark to the Over in non Super Bowls. His teams have averaged 31.1 points per game in those nine non Super Bowls, and that includes an 11 point effort against the amazingly talented Tampa Bay defense of 1999. Last season all four Arizona playoff games went Over the total, with the Cardinals scoring 30 and 32 points in their two home games. Now look at the injury reports for both teams for this game. No less than seven defensive backs are listed as OUT, Doubtful or Questionable for this one, and giving Warner and his talented counterpart Aaron Rodgers depleted secondaries to pick on is an Over formula. Finally, Ken Whisenhunt and Mike McCarthy are a combined 6-0 to the Over as playoff coaches. Looks to us like one of these teams (our feeling is Arizona, that is our BONUS SIDE PLAY) wins this 30-27, making the Over the play.
3* Cal Poly (-) over Cal Davis
Lots of edges for Cal Poly here, not the least of which is that three significant contributors for UC Davis either will definitely miss the game or may miss the game, and if they do play minutes (and likely effectiveness) will be limited. Even with those three (Silva, Payne, Medlock) on the court our Power Ratings on this one showed Cal Polu -6, a sizable difference from the actual number. Speaking of size, Cal Poly has more of it, and enjoys a +2.7 average rebounds per game advantage in this game. Finally, free throws are always key, but especially for what it is expected to be (judging by the small line) a close game, and Cal Poly is hitting 76% from the charity stripe at home this season as opposed to the 65% conversion rate of UC-Davis. Lay the small number here.
SIXTH SENSE
3% NEW ENGLAND –3.5
3% GREEN BAY +2.5 (Given out Monday night) up to GB –1 is ok
NEW ENGLAND -3.5 Baltimore 43
Baltimore is a sexy pick this week but not sure they are good enough to get the job done. They struggled to win at Oakland last week and that game figures to be much easier than at New England this week. Baltimore is running the ball well, averaging 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr and is above average throwing the ball at 6.3yps against 6.1yps. Overall, on offense, they average 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. The NE offense is better overall. They don’t rush the ball as well but they average 7.4yps against 6.0yps. Overall, they average 6.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Baltimore’s defense has improved. They allow just 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr and 5.9yps against 6.2yps. Overall, they allow 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. New England allows 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. But, they allow just 17 points per game against teams that average 21 points per game so their defense doesn’t allow a lot of points. Numbers favor NE by three points and predict about 43 points. Baltimore qualifies in a negative playoff situation, which is 42-15-4 and plays against them here. Baltimore was just 1-6 SU against playoff teams this year and their only win was against SD early in the season when SD was banged up. They lost at GB against a similar team that can throw the ball. NE is 8-0 SU at home this year, including a 27-21 over Baltimore earlier this year. Number is short enough along with a solid situation in their favor. NEW ENGLAND 27 BALTIMORE 16
ARIZONA PK Green Bay 47.5
Packers easily defeated Arizona last week but not much can be read into that game. GB approached that game differently than Arizona and neither team really had anything to play for. But, GB is better across the board in this game. They average 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr. Arizona averages 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr. GB averages 6.9yps against 6.4yps. Arizona averages 6.6yps against 6.5yps. GB averages 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Arizona averages 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Clearly, GB is better at each spot on offense. On defense, GB leads the league against the rush, allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr. Arizona struggles against the rush, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr. GB allows just 5.6yps against 5.8yps, while Arizona allows 5.8yps against 5.9yps. Overall, on defense, GB allows just 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl, while Arizona allows 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Numbers favor GB by one point and predict about 48 points. GB does qualify in a negative playoff situation, which is 60-21-4 but they also qualify in a fundamental playoff rushing situation, which is 56-22-3. The Packers played Arizona in the preseason (week three), where the starters usually play into the third quarter. In that game, minus Boldin, GB led at halftime 38-10. There is a good chance Boldin will miss this game as well. Again, it’s hard to read too much into that preseason game or last weeks game because Arizona kept it very vanilla. But, the body of work over the course of the season does favor GB, as do the numbers and their recent play. Some people think Arizona can turn it on in the playoffs like they did last year but this isn’t the same team. Last year they threw the ball better, averaging 7.1yps against 6.2yps and overall at 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense was about the same (although they were better against the rush than the pass compared to this year) at 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. So, clearly the offense is not nearly as explosive as last year. GB’s offense, with Jermichael Finley, is extremely explosive. You will have to outscore the Packers to win in the playoffs. They will score 30 points per game that they play during the playoffs so a team will have to score more than 30 points. There are plenty of teams in the NFC playoffs that can score a lot of points so this is possible but I don’t think Arizona is one of those teams. GREEN BAY 30 ARIZONA 21
Lenny Del Genio
NEP -3.5 vs BAL
This is the only Wild Card game that is not an immediate rematch from Week 17. The Baltimore Ravens are an easy team to figure out. They went 8-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS vs. non-playoff teams and 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS vs. playoff teams. When you consider one of those losses and two of those non-covers to non-playoff teams came against Pittsburgh, the dichotomy becomes even more eye opening. Six of their wins came against Cleveland (twice), Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago and Oakland. New England too was an easy team to figure out. They were 8-0 SU at home and 2-6 SU on the road, with one of those wins coming in London. The Patriots are both a playoff team and playing at home this week. Bad news for the Ravens, who are 0-5 SU all-time vs. New England, losing the three all-time meetings here in Foxboro 71-7. The Pats average margin of victory here at home is 18.3 PPG. All of the wins, with the exception of the MNF opener vs. Buffalo, came by six points or greater. Baltimore was just 3-5 SU on the road. They are 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS as a road dog of a field goal or more. QB Joe Flacco experienced a bit of a "sophomore slump," averaging just 173 YPG over the last five weeks and his last four games saw just 4 TD passes vs. four interceptions. The Wes Welker injury is being overblown - at least for this week. Take New England.
GBP / ARI Over 47.5
This should easily be the highest scoring game of Wild Card weekend. Green Bay is averaging 28 PPG this year, 30 PPG on the road. Arizona had scored 30+ points in three of four games with QB Warner under center before the finale, which they treated as a meaningless game. Green Bay is 15-2 Over since '92 when entering a game on a four-game ATS win streak. The Pack is 15-6 Over on the conference road during the McCarthy era and a perfect 6 for 6 Over after BB games where they scored 17+ in the first half. Note that Arizona went Over the total in three of their four playoff games last year. The team is 5-1 Over in the Wisenhunt era after scoring 14 pts or less in their previous game. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that they are also 14-7 Over coming off an Under in his tenure. Cardinals win a shootout. Over Green Bay/Arizona is our #1 Wild Card Total.
ARI PK vs GBP
Everyone and their mother is picking the Packers as the upset de jour of the weekend, so we might as well take the contrarian point of view and take advantage of a curious line move. Note that under HC Wisenhunt, the Cards are a perfect 6-0 straight up revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 points or more. They have also gone 14-7 ATS when favored by or getting less than three points. While it is tough to argue against how hot Green Bay has been down the stretch, note that several systems suggest this will be their demise. We start with a familiar one that you probably have seen us use down the stretch. Teams playing with revenge over the last 10 NFL seasons are 65-28 ATS if both they and their opponent have a win percentage between .600 and .750. Make our team the underdog and the system goes to 41-14 ATS, 74.5%. If the game is being played in the 2nd half of the season and the line is between +3 and -3, we are looking at 27-4 ATS! If our revenger scored less than 14 points in the initial meeting, that number jumps to 22-3 ATS! We've got more. Over the last five seasons, teams facing a conference opponent and are off a game where they failed to cover the number by 28 or more points are 28-8 ATS. Back to the matchups, the Green Bay defense has struggled when facing veteran QB's like Favre and Roethlisberger, the latter of whom they allowed to throw for 500+ yards on the road earlier in the year. The injury to Charles Woodson is big even if he does play because Arizona is deep enough at WR to offset the injury to Anquan Boldin, who oh by the way did not play for the start of last year's playoff run. Arizona is 18-6 SU their last 24 home games, covering 8 of the last 12 and they are 14-7 ATS L21 games overall. Take Arizona.
James Patrick Sports
5* Pot of Gold Game of the Year
Packers vs. Cardinals
Packers HC Mike McCarthy has Green Bay on a (7-1) run to end the regular season with the only loss a last second miracle to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Pack is (3-1) ATS as underdogs this season and Wild Card Game underdogs of (+1- +3) points are a solid (24-16-2) ATS since 1978 and (7-2) ATS the past three seasons. The Cardinals are on the short end here offensively, defensively and in special teams and Super Bowl losers are just (10-18-2) ATS in the next seasons playoffs. Green Bay is (4-1) ATS the past (5) meetings in this series and the Packers boast a (22-9-1) ATS record against the NFC. Arizona was beat up last week and are injured at Cornerback,Defensive End and Wide-Receiver but the biggest concern for Red Bird Fans will be a shaken Arizona defensive unit. Aaron Rodgers leads a potent Packers offensive unit and with DC Dom Capers calling the signals on "D" this could be an early exit for the Cards. The Pack is Back! 5* Pot of Gold Green Bay Packers
Nelly
Northwestern + over Michigan
Michigan has won back-to-back games in the Big Ten but the Wolverines are a difficult team to trust. This is a team that was getting pummeled at Penn State last Thursday, down double-digits most of the way, until an incredible flurry of points led to an improbable win. Northwestern played out of the conference on Thursday and got back in the win column. The Wildcats are 0-2 in conference play however, making this an absolutely critical game. These teams have played very close games in recent years with the last three meetings all being decided late including overtime in the most recent match-up. The road team is on a 11-5 ATS run in this series and Michigan only has one home ATS win on the season while Northwestern has been a profitable 7-3 on the year including 4-0 in true road games. Look for the Wildcats to be a serious upset threat in this match-up.
Tom Freese
10* SUPER SYSTEM SIDE WINNER
Arizona is 9-0 ATS their last 9 games as underdogs and they are 4-0
ATS their four Playoff Games. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in January and they are 11-5 ATS off a straight up loss by more than 14 points. Green Bay is in a 29-9 ATS Play Against Super System that says on road favorites or a pick if they lost their last game by 14 or more points as an underdog if they have a win percentage of 60% to 75% or higher on the season. 10* PLAY ON ARIZONA +
10* NO BRAINER UNDERDOG WINNER
NBA double digit favorites are 35-61-2 ATS this year. The Lakers are 31-51 ATS at home when playing a team with a win percentage 40% to 49%. los Angeles is 48-72 ATS at home after allowing 100 or more points in two straight games. Milwaukee is 10-2 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this year and they are 12-5 ATS their last 17 games off a straight up win. The Bucks are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 7-0-1 ATS their last meetings with the Lakers. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON MILWAUKEE +
Columbus is 6-0 UNDER when playing their third game in four days and they are 6-1 UNDER vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jackets are 5-0 UNDER when their opponent allowed two or less goals in their last game and they are 7-2 UNDER their last 9 games overall. Dallas is 9-3 UNDER their last 12 games off a win and they are 13-6-1 UNDER their last 20 games when playing their fourth game in six days. The Stars are 9-4-1 UNDER their last 14 meetings with the Blue Jackets including going 4-1-1 UNDER at Columbus. 10* PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Tom Stryker
4* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year
4* ARIZONA (+) over Green Bay
San Diego and Green Bay have been two of the hottest NFL teams in the second half of the regular season. That fact is noted. However, there is absolutely no way I can lay points with the Packers on the road in this game. Arizona was last year's NFC representative in the Super Bowl and the Cardinals will be primed to make a statement here.
If you're going to fade the Redbirds at home when they're coming off a straight up loss, you better have a darn good reason. Quietly, Arizona is a spotless 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in its own backyard checking in off a blemish. Going against a host in the NFL Wild Card round can be hazardous to your wallet too. Since the NFL developed the new post season format in 1990, Wild Card hosts are a respectable 54-14 SU and 45-30-3 ATS overall including a stunning 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS if they check in off a straight up loss as a favorite.
Since hosting Baltimore back on December 7th, Green Bay has been doing a lot of traveling. This will be the Packers fourth road game in a five-week span and the Cheeseheads could easily be fatigued. Honestly, this isn't the best technical spot for the Pack either. According to my NFL database, playoff road favorites have been poor investments notching a soft 8-18 ATS record including just 3-14 ATS in this role holding a won/loss percentage of .710 or less.
Since 1990, NFL Wild Card guests checking in with momentum off two or more straight up wins have struggled something fierce posting a dismal 9-26 SU and 12-21-2 ATS record including a stunning 7-24 SU and 9-20-2 ATS in this role matched up against a non-division opponent. That doesn't bode well for Green Bay either.
Yesterday, there were two NFL teams (Cincinnati and Philadelphia) seeking right back revenge and they both failed. Today, there is one left. The Packers got the best of the Redbirds last Sunday and, because of their dominance in that game and in the second half of the regular season, they've actually moved to the favorite. This number is wrong. Grab all the points you can here. Take Arizona.
Keith Fredrick
Ravens at Patriots
Pick: Patriots -3.5
Patriots are hearing about how they cannot win without Wes Welker, and this team thrives on being challenged, so I expect them to play very well here. That is the emotional factor, the rest of the play comes down to numbers. Start with 37-16 and 28-3, the scores of the last two Patriot games in the Wild Card round. Then throw in 35-7, 20-10, 31-14, 27-17, 59-0, 27-21, 26-10 - those being the scores of the last seven home games the Pats have played. Then add in that, except for a game against Cleveland, Baltimore is 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS on the road of late. Finally, Patriots fit a 71% playoff days rest system, one that also fits the Cardinals. Lay it.
C-Star Sports
5000 Units New England Minus the points over Baltimore
50 units New England/Baltimore UNDER THE TOTAL
DB Sports Consultants
15* Green Bay -2.5
5* Baltimore +3.5
SEABASS
400* AZ Under
100* AZ
50* Balt
Bobby Flanagan
3* Packers/Cardinals Under 48
You may look at this game first glance and think about the offenses and the points they can put up but I am looking at it from a different angle. I think it's going to be a defensive game.
In most cases the playoffs usually bring out the best of both teams defensively. They tend to be lower scoring than each teams normal offensive outputs in the regular season. This game features the Packers number one defense against the run in the NFL and the Cardinals defense that bends but doesn't always break in the red zone.
I'm backing the under here because I feel the Packers and Cardinals are both going to try to get their running games going. You don't win in January unless you can run the ball. If the Cardinals want a shot to win this game they can't rely totally on an aging Kurt Warner and an offensive line who has been struggling protecting him.
The Packers offensive line has showed us they are vulnerable at protecting Rodgers and that can't completely rely on him either. They know they need to get the run going because they have been outgained on the ground in four of their five losses this year.
I think it's going to be more of a controlled and conservative attack from both teams who look to try to grind it out against one another and we'll play the under.
3* Montana State -12
Eastern Washington is bad when they play winning programs. At 9-6 Montana is a threat this afternoon because EWU is 4-11-1 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record. Montana State is on a 7-1 ATS run dating back to last year against conference opponents and should show no fear against the Eagles today.
It's a back to back road game with 1 day in between for rest for Eastern Washington which is never easy for any college team. They are 0-2 in back to back road games this year losing 91-34 to BYU and 94-52 to Gonzaga. The margin of defeat shouldn't be that bad tonight but I still think Montana State pours it on them and covers this number.
This is a nice scheduling setup for Montana State in their second back to back home game to take advantage of a road weary Eastern Washington team in their second game in a short road set.
3G SPORTS
NFL PLAYOFFS:
10* Oddsmaker Mistake Game of the Month: ARIZONA +3
4* Baltimore +3.5
COLLEGE HOOPS:
4* Kansas -5
ICEMAN HOCKEY:
passing
10* Oddsmaker Mistake Game of the Month
Play Selected Point Spread: +3
This comes down to a couple of fundament questions: Who do you trust more, Kurt Warner at home or Aaron Rodgers on the road in his 1st playoff game? I’ll take Warner, the guy who’s played in three Super Bowls and knows how to win close games, over Rodgers, who is a playoff newbie, who has won just three games by six points or less, and who has just ONE fourth-quarter come-from-behind win in his two-year career (and that win was gift-wrapped by Jay Cutler in Week 1 of this season)
Which coach do you trust more, Arizona’s Ken Whisenhunt or Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy who looks dazed on the sidelines half the time? I’ll take Whisenhunt (who guided the Cardinals to the Super Bowl last year in his first playoff appearance as a head man) over McCarthy (whose first postseason appearance ended with an overtime loss to the Giants as an eight-point home favorite in the NFC title game two years ago). Who would you rather put your money on, the Cardinals at home (where just three weeks ago they manhandled Brett Favre and the Vikings, the same Brett Favre and the Vikings who crushed Green Bay twice this season) or the Packers on the road (Green Bay doesn’t have a single quality road victory this year, beating up on the Rams, Browns, Lions and Bears before last week’s totally meaningless win over the Cardinals while losing at Minnesota and at Pittsburgh, as well as at then-winless Tampa Bay). Look, people, I know the betting public is infatuated with the Packers in this game, but the Cardinals aren’t chumps. They came within 90 seconds of winning the Super Bowl last year and finished with a 4-0 ATS mark in the playoffs (going 2-0 SU and ATS at home). Their defense is better this year than last, and they have ALL the postseason experience and veterans going against the youngest team in the NFL. ARIZONA will be ready this evening!!