Matt Fargo
NFL GOY - Chicago
Teddy Covers
Seahawks / Bears Over
Jets
Jimmy Boyd
5* Chicago Bears -10
4* NY Jets +9
David Malinsky
4* NY JETS over NEW ENGLAND
Rarely have we ever seen the result of a single game have the line impact that the 45-3 Monday night rout the Patriots had over the Jets on week #13, not all that long ago, as we see here. That game sat on New England -3.5 for most of the week, before closing at -4, a price that has now more than doubled. Has anything happened since then to also generate the gap? No. While the Patriots did close out strong, the Jets have won at Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, and nearly won at Chicago as well. So we do not hesitate to accept the market generosity in a game that does not bring physical matchups anywhere near what this line suggests.
New England is not an easy team to rate because of the nature of a truly historic season. The Patriots set an all-time NFL record by only turning the ball over 10 times, and their +28 in TO differential was the third best over the past 50 seasons. When something happens that extreme it is naturally going to skew other statistics, like the fact that their opponents actually ended up with more first downs (348-335) and more total yards (5,864-5,820). We have to put an * next to those, but what is meaningful is that in terms of yards per play it was only a 5.9 to 5.6 New England advantage, a tie for #8 in that category. It was precision, not necessarily prowess. In truth they get an absolute A for their offensive precision, with Tom Brady running a sophisticated scheme in which there are not a lot of risks taken. We do not give the defense anywhere near that grade, however. We credit that group with being every bit as much lucky as good, and in allowing 63.5 percent pass completions at 7.1 per attempt, and 1,728 rushing yards at 4.2, it was an average group kept from further statistical exposure by favorable bounces.
The Jet defensive numbers are in an entirely different league, and while they were embarrassed by Brady in that Monday night debacle, they also own a pair of outright wins over the Patriots the past two seasons in which the results were entirely different. They are not going to be intimidated in any way, and if anything the fact that they could corral Peyton Manning and the Colts with far fewer blitzes than usual last week sets up the game plan here play it straight, rely on Darrelle Reavis and Antonio Cromartie to handle their guys one-on-one, and force New England to beat them with personnel, rather than Brady making the right reads in a gambling defense that has to allow a hole or two. The Patriot receivers are good, not great, and the RB's just average, getting much more out of tactics than talent. The flip side to this equation can also fit, with the Jet offense having an outstanding second half at Indianapolis to grow in confidence. When the counting was done they had 70 offensive plays to just 54 for the Colts, with LaDanian Tomlinson (82 rushing yards) and Shonn Greene (70) both effective overland, and Mark Sanchez able to play within himself. The pieces are in place for a dink-and-dunk attack that can control the ball for long stretches against a defense that is vulnerable to just that.
That all leaves us with a unique bottom line. Rarely do we ever see a price this high when the underdog has a roster that is every bit that of what the favorite brings, with the Jets clearly better at running the football, and at defending both the run and the pass. It shows how much the Patriot turnover differential has become an accepted reality in the marketplace, rather than a pendulum that has gone to an extreme, and a confident team that has won three road playoff games over the past two seasons brings the swagger to be in the hunt all the way in this one.
Jim Feist
Chicago Over
Ben Burns
10* Jets / Patriots Under
I'm playing on New England and New York to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Jets to go 'under' the total last week and I feel that this will prove to be an excellent spot to do so again. True, both regular season meetings did finish above the total. However, those games still averaged "only" 45 points; neither game had an O/U line this high. Yes, the Jets were a profitable 'over' team during the regular season. However, we saw what they did in the playoffs last week, a 17-16 victory over the Colts. Note that they ran the ball 38 times, which helped to chew up the clock. They've averaged 39.3 rushing attempts over their last three games. Naturally, in an effort to limit the amount of time Brady spends on the field, they'll be doing their best to establish the ground game once again. Yes, the Patriots were a profitable 'over' team this season - and everyone knows that they have a potent offense. Check out what the defense has done recently though. Over their last two games, the Pats allowed a mere 10 combined points. Belichick wasn't happy with the defense last in last season's playoff loss (vs. Baltimore) and I feel this unit has improved significantly since then. The fact that they held four of their last five opponents to seven points or less tends to support that. (Last season, the Pats gave up 34 points in their reg. season finale alone.) While they've had a dangerous offense for years, last year's loss notwithstanding, the Pats have been primarily an 'under' team in the postseason. The UNDER is 17-7-1 their last 25 playoff games. With a pair of excellent defenses and a generously high O/U line, I expect those stats to improve on Sunday afternoon.
10* Bears
I'm playing on CHICAGO. While I successfully rode the Saints last year, I had the Seahawks in last weekend's upset win. I also had them when they beat the Rams the previous week, in order to even qualify for the playoffs. Therefore, I'm not shocked that they knocked off the defending champs and made it this far. Give the Hawks credit, they came to win and they played hard the entire way. I expect their "magical run" to hit a brick wall on Sunday afternoon though. As pointed out each of the last two weeks (and several times throughout the year) the Hawks are an entirely different team when they play at Seattle. They've got very passionate fans and that helps give them a strong homefield advantage. Additionally, being on the West Coast, they get to catch most teams after they traveled from a large distance. Last week, I noted that playing on the West Coast, on a short week" (Seatte/NO was played on Saturday) was going to be difficult for the Saints. This week, however, the Hawks are on the road. As noted, the road has not been kind to them. They were 2-6 SU/ATS away from Seattle this season. They're now an awful 7-17 ATS (5-19 SU) away from Seattle, the past few seasons. This week, while they have had an extra day's worth of rest (due to playing on Saturday last week) they're up against a very well-rested Chicago team AND they're playing an EARLY game in the Eastern Time Zone. Keep in mind that 1pm EST = 10am PST. Looking at the Hawks' last three road games and we find that they lost by scores of 38-15, 40-21 and 34-19. In fact, ALL six of their road losses came by double-digits. Their other three road losses came by scores of 31-14, 20-3 and 33-3. Those three were against some pretty mediocre (at best) competition too, as they came vs. Denver, St. Louis and Oakland - three teams which failed to make the playoffs. One of Seattle's road wins came at Arizona, one of the weaker teams in the league. The other came right here at Chicago, a 23-20 victory back on 10/17. While some may think that result gives Seattle an advantage, the Hawks know first hand that regular season success against an opponent doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot, during the playoffs. After all, Seattle was blown out by New Orleans during the regular season. Note that the Bears have won seven of their last 10, when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting, incl. 2-0 SU/ATS their last two in that situation this season. Even with the earlier win here and last week's upset, the Seahawks are still just 3-5 SU/ATS against teams with a winning record. They're now an awful 6-15-1 ATS (4-18 SU) their last 22 against winning teams. The Bears have quietly played very well down the stretch. They were 7-2 since the beginning of November. One loss came vs. the Patriots and the other loss came at Green Bay, when the Bears had clinched the division the Packers were in a "must win" spot. The Seahawks can already hang their heads high. No matter what happens here, they've over-achieved and will be heroes to most their home fans. On the other hand, anything less than victory will be considered a major disappointment in Chicago. I expect the Bears to deliver that victory for the home fans, doing so in convincing fashion.
8* Seahawks / Bears Under
I'm playing on Chicago and Seattle to finish UNDER the total. With the home fans cheering them on, the Seahawks managed to put up 41 points against the defending champs last week. That suited me just fine, as I had a play on Seattle. However, I don't expect the Seahawks to get even half that many here. For the season, Seattle averaged a mere 16.7 points per game away from Seattle. For the season, Chicago allowed only 17.9 points per game. While the Bears were involved in a few high-scoring games late in the season, their games still averaged less than 39 combined points. Last week's high-scoring game between Seattle and New Orleans has worked in our favor, as its one of the factors providing us with a generously high O/U line here. Note that its risen from its opener, providing additional value. Note that these teams met each of the last two regular seasons and those games each had O/U lines of 37.5. Note that Chicago has seen the UNDER go 7-3 its last 10 home games with an O/U line in the 38.5 to 42 range. Yes, this season's earlier meeting did finish above the total, a 23-20 Seattle victory. However, it wasn't like the teams put up huge yards. (They had 307 and 353, respectively.) The fact that the Seahawks won the earlier meeting is also significant. Lovie Smith's Bears have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they were in the 'revenge' role. While the Bears had already clinched the division, the fact that they lost their reg. season finale (10-3 vs. GB) is also worth mentioning. That's because they've seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they were off a divisional loss. With this number having climbed and with the Bears' defense "rising to the occasion," I expect those stats to improve on Sunday afternoon.
PPP
5% Chicago Bears
3% New York Jets
Mike Lineback
Teaser: Bears/Pats
Tom Stryker
Bears-10
DOUBLE DRAGON
BEARS -10
PATRIOTS -8.5
LARRY NESS
27 CLUB - Chicago Bears
CHUCK O'BRIEN
50 DIME New England Patriots
15 DIME Chicago Bears
Brett Atkins
40 Dime Seattle Seahawks
Stephen Nover
25 Dime New England
15 Dime Chicago
Anthony Redd
20 Dime Creighton
20 Dime Akron
20 Dime Iowa
Valley Sports
3* Chicago -10
3* NY Jets/New England Under 45
2* Chicago/Seattle Over 41
2* NY Jets +8½
Insider Sports Report
4* North Carolina -5½
3* Chicago -10
3* New England -9
Al Demarco
15 Dime Teaser Patriots & Over
Fairway Jay
20* Bears
Rob Rosenhaus
250* Seattle Seahawks +10
Ben Burns
10* Wright St
9* Denver/ San Antonio Under 211.5
7* NY Rangers
Wayne Root
No limit: Chicago
Billionaire: New England
The Prez
4* Seahawks/Bears Over
4* Jets/Patriots Under
Jim Feist
20* Seahawks/Bears Over
Brandon Lang
25 Dime Jets / Patriots Under 23 1st Half
Don Wallace
4* Bears -10
4* Patriots -9
BIG AL
5* W Virginia