Larry Ness
10* TV Game of the Month - W.Virginia -2.5
No. 8 Purdue lost its last game 70-67 at Minnesota on Thursday. That snapped the team's 10-game winning streak this season and its 10-game road winning streak which went back into last year. West Va comes in unranked at 11-4, off a year in which Bob Huggins led his alma mater to a 31-win season and back to the Final 4 for the first time since 1959 and the days of Jerry West. Gone from that team is a trio of frontcourt players, Butler (17.2-6.6), Ebanks (12.0-8.1) and Smith (6.6-4.1). This year's team is not as strong up front but there is enough talent there to make the Mountaineers an NCAA team again this season. The 6-8 Jones (13.9-6.8) is the best of the group, joined by the 6-7 Flowers (8.7-6.3), the 6-9 Kilicki (6.9-3.8) and the 6-8 Jennings (2.4-2.7). The backcourt has been better than expected. Huggins expected solid play from Bryant (12.3-3.1-3.6) and Mazzulla (5.3-3.5 APG) but I doubt he counted on Mitchell, a JUCO transfer who averaged just 3.7 PPG for his Final 4 team last year, to be leading the team with a 17.4 PPG average! Getting back to Purdue, the Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel (former Big 10 p-o-y) to an injury in the preseason and while they've played well this year, Purdue relies too much on the 6-10 Johnson (20.1-8.5) and guard Moore (17.9-5.9-3.3). A perfect example of that was on Thursday, as Johnson had a terrific game vs the Gophers (29 points / 11 rebounds) but Moore went 2-of-14 from the floor. Purdue's got solid depth but only Johnson and Moore are 'stars.' Also working against Purdue here is West Va's memory of last year's 77-62 Purdue win in West Lafayette last January 1. Let me turn it over to coach Huggins. "It was noon last year and it was so cold, so snowy, and so ugly in West Lafayette," Huggins told the school's official website. "All of our guys from (former Mountaineer forward) Da'Sean (Butler) on down said it was the greatest crowd the most enthusiastic and the most intimidating crowd that they ever played against. They never sat down and they were beating the hell out of us and they still never sat down." West Va was 11-0 at the time of last year's game (ranked 6th) and the loss prevented the team from opening 12-0 for the first time since 1957-58. The Mountaineers are 45-8 at home since Huggins returned to his alma mater and they "want this one!" Expect them to get it!
Executive
250% Seattle +10
250% New England -9
KELSO
100 Units Bears
10 Units Patriots
Hot Shot Sports
Minnesota
Butler
Rainman
10* Bears
3* New England
1* Bears Under
1* New England Under
Five Star Sports
3* Seattle + 10
3* NY Jets + 9.5
3* St Johns - 1.5
3* California + 8.5
3* Washington Under 149
Tim Trushel
New York Jets
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Bears
15 Dime Bears-Seahawks Over
Bears
Yep, one week after cashing in big with Seattle in its shocking upset of the Saints – I had a 50 Dime winner on the Seahawks plus the points, a 15 Dime first-half winner and a 5 Dime money-line winner – I’m reversing field and fading Pete Carroll’s team. Why? Because the way I see, after so many factors lined up in Seattle’s favor a week ago, I see only three reasons to support the Seahawks today: 1) They’re riding a wave of momentum after last week’s stunning upset; 2) they beat the Bears in Chicago earlier this season; and 3) you never know which Jay Cutler will show up for the Bears.
I can’t attack the latter point – I’ve stopped trying to figure out the enigma that is Cutler – but I can poke holes in the first two points. First off, last week was a perfect-storm type of situation for the Seahawks (playing in front of one of the best crowds in all of football; facing a dome team outdoors in the cold, one that had never won a road playoff game, one that was minus its top two running backs and one that was playing its fourth road game in six weeks and doing so on a short schedule; rallying around the “nobody believes in us” mantra). Seattle laid it all on the line in that game, both physically and emotionally – it truly was their Super Bowl – and I just don’t see any way they match that intensity today, especially playing on foreign turf.
As for Seattle’s 23-20 upset win at Soldier Field on Oct. 17, it was a legit victory. The Seahawks outgained the Bears 353-307 and the defense sacked Cutler six times. However, Seattle was also coming off a bye week (this time, Chicago is the team that’s had two weeks to prepare). Also, the Bears did a much better job in pass protection over the second half of the season, when they went 7-2 down the stretch (only losses at the Packers and vs. the Patriots).
The Seahawks followed up the Bears win with a Week 6 home victory over the Cardinals (22-10). It was the only time they won back-to-back games this season until they beat the Rams to get into the playoffs in the season finale, then upset the New Orleans last week. And since the winner has covered the pointspread in each of Seattle’s 17 games this year, that means the Seahawks haven’t had a three-game SU or ATS winning streak all season.
The last time Seattle won three in a row? When they had a five-game winning streak in the second half of the 2007 season. The last time Seattle covered three straight games? December 2008 (and it was favored in one of those contests). Melning the Seahawks have played 34 straight games without a 3-0 ATS streak.
Finally, as I pointed out last week, the Seahawks have had a very unique season in that they either win outright or they get their doors blown off. Including last week’s victory, they’re now 8-9 on the season. Six of their wins were outright upsets (the other two came as a favorite against the crappy Panthers and Cardinals at home). The nine losses? All by 15 points or more, including road losses at Denver (31-14), St. Louis (20-3), Oakland (33-3), New Orleans (34-19), San Francisco (40-21) and Tampa Bay (38-15).
So if that trends hold form, either the Seahawks will win this game outright or lose by at least two touchdowns. As noted already, I just don’t think Seattle, which is 16-35-1 ATS in its last 52 road games, has what it takes to win back-to-back games as a double-digit underdog or pull off three straight upsets (remember, they were a three-point home ‘dog against St. Louis in the season finale).
Because of Seattle’s win in Chicago earlier this season and its win over New Orleans last week, the element of surprise is out the window. The Bears, who ended the regular season a 6-2-1 ATS run and beat the likes of the Jets and Eagles, will NOT take the Seahawks lightly. And as long as Cutler plays smart, Chicago will roll by at least 17 points.
Bears-Seahawks Over
Don’t like the fact this total has skyrocketed from an opening number of 40 all the way up to 43. But the movement is justified when you look at both the history between these teams and also the way both these squads have been trending over the total lately.
Each of the last five Seahawks-Bears clashes have hurdled the total, including a 27-24 overtime playoff game in Chicago exactly four years ago. The scores of the other four contests: 37-6, 30-23, 25-19 and 23-20. So all five have at least reached 43 points.
Seattle easily cleared the total in last week’s 41-36 win over the Saints, making the over 9-1 in their last 10 games (including 4-0 “over” on the road). The combined point totals in those nine “overs” were as follows: 48, 54, 53, 66, 45, 61, 52, 53 and 77. Additionally, the Seahawks are on high-scoring runs of 12-3-1 as an underdog, 36-17 as a road underdog, 39-17 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points, 4-0 in the playoffs, 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog, 8-1 in NFC games, 6-0 against winning teams and 6-1 on grass.
Chicago played a tight defensive game at Green Bay to end the season (the Packers won 10-3), but prior to that the Bears played five straight “overs” with final scores of 31-26 (home), 24-20, 36-7 (home), 40-14 and 38-34 (home). Those latter three games (against the Patriots, Vikings and Jets, respectively)? All were played in freezing cold and snow. Chicago also is on “over” runs of 21-10 as a home chalk, 4-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 in playoff home games, 4-0 as a playoff favorite and 8-1 in January.
Look for this one to end up in the 34-17 range.
Wayne Root
Pinnacle - W Virginia
ALATEX
15* Georgia Tech
10* St Johns
10* Detroit University
Jim Feist
20* Bears Over
20* LA Clippers
Joe D'Amico
3* Bears -11.5
2* Jets +10.5
Mike Neri
4* Chicago
3* New England
Blazer
4* New England
3* Chicago
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Mississippi St
3 Units Butler
Scott Spreitzer
10* Minnesota
6* Butler
Greg Roberts
4* Chicago Bears -10
2* Detroit University
2* Wright St
Power Play Wins
Patriots
The Real Animal
4* Jets +9
4* Jets Over 44