Teddy Covers
Big Ticket: Minny
Jets-Chargers Over
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
5* Lock - Minnesota
2* Jets/Chargers Over
Gregg Price
5* Jets - We are going with the Jets here. We know the line isn't 9, I put this out as soon as the line came out because I knew the sharp money was going on the Jets. No one is taking this team seriously. We had the Jets last week, and knew it wouldn't be hard to beat Cinci. Well these Chargers aren't Cinci, they are good. I think SD's only weakness is there lack of running game. But come playoff time you need a running game. And it won't be as easy for Sanchez this week, he is going to have to do more. You know what else hurts SD? Good old Norv Turner, reminds me a lot of Marty Schottenheimer, great regular season coach but can't get it done in the playoffs. We are going to ride the Jets D in this game. Grab the points.
Joe Gaffney
8 Unit NFL GOY
The Jets got a couple of breaks to close out the regular season by facing teams that had nothing to play for. Their luck will run out on Sunday against one of the best teams in the NFL. The Chargers go into the playoffs as one of them dangerous teams in the group. They are white hot right now and haven't even peaked yet. Look for Chargers to not only cover the spread, but to win by 2 touchdowns or more.
HOWIE FEINER
5,000 Dime GOY
DALLAS/MINNESOTA Under
Pointwise Phone Service
3* DALLAS, DALLAS/MINNY UNDER
2* SAN DIEGO
Special K
5* Vikings
5* Jets
STREET ROSENTHAL
*300 Minn Vikings -2.5
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - Minnesota Vikings
My Best Bet last Saturday was Dallas and part of the reason why was because I thought the Eagles were simply a bad team, one that the Cowboys had trounced a week earlier and I thought a repeat performance was on the docket. And, as you saw, that's exactly what happened as the Pokes, who won the regular season finale 24-0, scored 27 unanswered points in the second quarter en route to a 34-14 blowout.
How ironic that the Cowboys, coming off a win over the Eagles, now carry a four-game winning streak into a road game with an NFC North squad. Don't tell me that you don't recall the exact same scenario played out earlier this season. Remember? The 'Boys followed their road upset of the Birds in Philly with a trip to Lambeau and got upset themselves the next week by the Packers 17-7.
A couple of things play into my choice of Minnesota in this contest. First, the oddsmakers - and betting public - are giving the Cowboys way too much credit for consecutive routs of the Eagles, who as I've told you repeatedly, simply aren't any good. And let's back-up a moment. Three weeks ago they shutout the Redskins 17-0. Big deal. And the 24-17 win at New Orleans against the then-unbeaten Saints, who were crippled injury-wise both defensively and at running back, should have been expected with the benefit of hindsight.
Listen, I was on New Orleans against Dallas that day and obviously lost. But keep in mind what the Cowboys had done the previous two weeks before meeting the Saints. They were outplayed at home in a 20-17 loss to San Diego in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. And a week earlier they blew a 10-0 early lead in a 31-24 loss to the Giants on the road.
It's great to take a hot team in the playoffs, but you've still got to consider the body of work they compiled in the season's latter stages. And pricing Dallas as such a competitive dog means Minnesota is an undervalued favorite in my book.
You know how I loved backing the Vikings this season, especially at home where they were 8-0 SU, winning on average 33-16, outgaining their opponents 426-273 in total yards. That's a 153-yard differential per game.
Sure, Minny struggled down the stretch, but starting with the second half of the Monday night loss at Chicago through the regular season home finale blowout of the Giants, look at the numbers Brett Favre put up: 46-for-62....601 yards....6 TDs.
Unlike the Eagles, the Vikings have a strong ground game to complement Favre. And their offensive line protection, although spotty at times, is far superior to anything Philadelphia was able to bring to the table this entire season.
These teams shared four common opponents this year: Green Bay, Seattle, Carolina and the Giants. The Vikings went 4-1 both SU and ATS against that quartet, winning on average 31-18. On the other hand, Dallas went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS against them with a three-point average margin of victory (24-21).
This has been a series dominated by the Vikings over the years as they've won and covered five of the last six meetings. And although Tony Romo and the Cowboys have exorcised some late-season and playoff demons in recent weeks, it's still worth noting that Dallas is 2-10 SU (3-9 ATS) in its last 12 postseason highway outings, including 1-6 SU and ATS when coming off a win such as last week's versus Philly. Plus, Wade Phillips is 0-3 SU and ATS when catching points in the playoffs.
This game's price - which has been -3 practically all week - represents value for Minnesota backers like myself because I feel the Vikings should be laying at least 4 1/2 points in this contest, if not 6. But again, the oddsmakers have overreacted - as has the public - to the Cowboys' back-to-back routs of the Eagles. And, in this case, that's okay because that gives me exceptional value backing a team that's 8-0 at home, that's coming off a much-needed bye week that was preceded by a 44-7 rout of the Giants a week earlier.
Oh, and by the way, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Dallas lost both games against the Giants this season, 33-31 at home and 31-24 on the road. And in those two games, Eli Manning passed for 571 yards and four touchdowns. My money is on Favre having a big day against the Dallas "D," unlike Philly's Donovan McNabb, who didn't have the ground support or protection the past two Sundays needed to be successful.
Strategy:
Absolutely you go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point if your price is -3 or -3 1/2. And if you're somehow stuck with -4 - which there is no reason you should be, or 3 1/2 for that matter - go ahead and buy down in that case, too, on Minnesota.
John Fina
SD Chargers
GAMEDAY SPORTS
5* SAN DIEGO -7
Kelso
50 Units Chargers (-7) over NY Jets
This is a game that features a high-octane passing team with blue-chip talent facing a team that starts a rookie quarterback and because of it lives and dies by the run. My analysis says San Diego and quarterback Philip Rivers, and his outstanding receiving corps, will put the Chargers on the lead and then keep the pedal to the metal and make the Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez beat them. I just don’t think a rookie playing in the biggest game of his career—and one the road, to boot—is up to the task. Much has been made of the fact San Diego has not been overly effective in stopping the run this season and will be vulnerable against the Jets 1-2 punch of tailbacks Thomas Jones and Shonn Green. That’s a hard argument for me to buy, since the Chargers come into this game standing 11-0 in their last 11 games and in those wins have certainly faced running games far more potent than that of the Jets. Passing trumps running in this one.
Brandon Lang
75 DIME - NEW YORK JETS - (IF LINE IS 7 YOU BUY THE 1/2, AND GET 7 1/2. VALUE IN THE UNDERDOG) - I said it last week and I will say it this week.
You give me the # 1 defense in the NFL and the # 1 rush offense in the NFL, and I will gladly take the points anywhere on planet earth.
I know the Chargers are great, and have been great, but fact of the matter is the strength of this Jets team is their offensive line while the weakness of San Diego is their defensive line.
The Jets will attack the Chargers the same way they attacked the Bengals both offensively and defensively.
Establish the run, get Sanchez in very manageable 3rd downs and keep the chains moving.
New York faced what I felt was a better all around defense in the Bengals last week, and their offensive gameplan was brilliant and I credit offensive coordinator Schottenheimer for his play calling.
I see much of the same here.
It is very hard to blowout a team that brings the # 1 defense and # 1 run game in the NFL as long as they play error free football, and if the Jets win the turnover battle, they do have a chance to shock the world.
Now if you don't turn the ball over in 10 degree weather against the 5th best overall defense in Cincinnati, I just don't see you turning it over in 75 degree weather in sunny San Diego against the 16th ranked defense.
Do the Chargers scare me? Absolutely, but again I didn't see anything from the Jets last week against Cincy that leads me to believe Sanchez is going to play this game like a deer caught in the headlights.
In fact, he came of age last week in Cincy. He looked very comfortable, but folks any QB would feel comfortable when you have a rush attack like the Jets.
Once Rex Ryan and his staff stop asking Sanchez to win games, and started having him manage games, this team became dangerous, very dangerous.
People can say Indy rested players but it was a 15-10 game 3rd quarter when they sat their starters, and Jets ball so I don't want to hear that.
This team is playing with a lot of confidence and catching more than a TD is value I can't pass up today.
FREE SELECTION - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
WAYNE ROOT
DALLAS COWBOYS vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3
The Minnesota Vikings will host the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday at the Metrodome in possibly the most popular playoff meeting thus far in the postseason. On one side, you have the legend QB Brett Farve who signed with the Vikings while turning a rushing team into one of the most balanced offenses in the league. The Vikings at many times this season have appeared to be the most complete team in the league, but a few lackluster performances down the stretch has left some doubts on what was such a promising season. The Vikings are in search for their first NFC Championship in over 30 years, but before they have a chance at a Championship they must defend their home turf against the most hated team in America.
The Dallas Cowboys ended all the critics talk of the postseason drought last week as they beat the Eagles for the 2nd straight week in a row to score their first postseason victory since 1996. The Cowboys are suddenly playing extremely well on the defensive side of the ball and also getting help from the offense along the way. The Cowboys now seem to have momentum on their side, something that has been missing for nearly two decades. Still, the Cowboys have a lot of support considered by one of the largest fan bases in sports. For most of those fans, the Cowboys rise to glory has been long overdue. However, a loss to the Vikings this Sunday would make the wait even longer.
The Vikings offense has been a lethal threat to all defenses this season. The primary objective initially was to feed the ball to the sensational running threat of Adrian Peterson and then work the pass in as holes opened in the defense. However, Peterson has not had the incredible season that most would have expected yet has still been effective enough to rack up over 1,300 rushing yards. However as a result, Farve has thrown a lot more passes and WR Sidney Rice has emerged as a star in the passing offense. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings come out and try to establish their offense this week. The Cowboys defensive front has been very strong and just asks Donovan McNabb how well they are playing. Still, even with the Cowboys strong pass rush teams have been able to run the ball. On that note, expect Peterson to set the tone early and depending on their success running the football will decide which pace of offense the Vikings establish.
Expect the Vikings run game to not be as successful early on when emotions are up from kickoff and they will likely turn to Farve rather quickly. I’m sure the Vikings passing attack will have their ups and downs. However, it could be a lot more struggles if the Dallas pass rush continues to dominate. The way the Vikings will get the offense involved is when they go back to the running game with Peterson later. Once the Dallas defense is worn down a bit, Peterson can have a step advantage in the holes and that is where they will find the offensive sparks. It will be up to Farve and the passing game to capitalize on those sparks. One thing is for sure that neither passing team can afford to turnover the ball as this will expectedly be a close game.
The Cowboys offense will surely allow Marion Barber and Felix Jones to have plenty of carries. Both backs have the ability to cause damage, but Jones is appearing to be the star in the making. After busting out a few big plays against the Eagles in the first meeting, Jones rushed for 148 yards and a score on just 16 carries in last week’s win. QB Tony Romo completed 66% throwing for 244 yards and 2 scores. WR Miles Austin was yet again the favorite target catching 7 balls for 82 yards and a touchdown. However, keep an eye on WR Roy Williams. When Williams makes a few grabs it really opens the door for the rest of the receivers. The Cowboys numbers on offense has been pretty solid and they should be able to score some points again. The question is will the Vikings have their way on the offensive side of the ball as they have many times this season or will the Cowboys defense continue to impress?
WAR'S ANSWER IS THAT THE OFFENSIVE BALANCE THAT THE VIKINGS HAVE AND WITH FARVE'S PLAYOFF LEADERSHIP....THE VIKINGS WILL PREVAIL. THIS IS WAR'S VEGAS LEGEND TAKING MINNESOTA.
NEW YORK JETS vs. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -7
The New York Jets opportunity to just reach the postseason was considered a big long shot, but they closed out the year winning 5 of their last 6 games while getting help from some of the other teams around the league as well. The Jets backed up their underdog efforts last week with an impressive outing against the Cincinnati Bengals 24-14. The Jets finally are getting tremendous help from their defense and they are proving that they can play with the top teams in the league. However, the Jets will try to tackle the San Diego Chargers this weekend, who are the hottest team in the NFL in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs.
San Diego won 11 games as the hottest team in the league to close out the year earning them a first round bye last week. The well rested Chargers will now attempt to pick up where they left off. The San Diego offense has proven to be unstoppable this season with QB Phillip Rivers under center. Rivers threw for 4,254 yards with 28 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions this season. Those are very solid numbers especially if you consider the lack of run game throughout the year meaning defenses knew the pass was coming but still could not stop it.
The reason it’s hard to stop the Chargers passing attack outside of Rivers dangerous accuracy lies in the receivers. WR Vincent Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates possibly the most lethal duo combination in any passing game. The two have combined for 2,300 plus yards and 17 touchdowns. Jackson is a big wide receiver that has dominated cornerback this year and Gates provides excellent support underneath. Those combinations in the passing game have been deadly, but now they must get the momentum rolling after a week off and also against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
The Jets lead the NFL in pass defense holding opponents to a lucrative low 154 yards per game through the air. The entire Jets defense has been even more impressive holding teams to just less than 9 points per game during their last 7 outings. However, the secondary may not have the height advantage to take the ball away from Jackson if he gets a few throws down the field. Jackson single handedly beat the Cowboys, who also have a disadvantage in size in their secondary, late in the regular season and the Jets can not afford to yield any similar results. For the most part, their pass defense has been very solid but will likely need to force a turnover or two quickly before the Chargers will change their attack. If they can keep San Diego out of the end zone early it will be vital to their success. The offense may put more on the arm of Mark Sanchez this week. Sanchez has been used very little considering the offense has ridden running back Thomas Jones over the past few weeks.
However, points will have to be scored in this game as I do not think the Jets running game can absolutely control the game start to finish. They will have to get help from Sanchez who completed 12 of 15 for 182 yards last week against the Bengals. If Sanchez can repeat on those numbers and produce some points then they will have a shot at the upset. Thomas Jones has been the workhouse over the past few weeks and they will give him the ball often again. Jones needs a few solid runs out of the gate to set the tone for the offense so that they can try to give him the ball 20 plus times. However, as stated before Sanchez and the passing offense will have to give support at some time in this game. If the Jets can not score at least 20 points they will not win.
WAR HAS MADE THE SAN DIEGO CHARGERS HIS BILLIONAIRES PLAY
Boston Blackie
Dallas Cowboys +2.5