DOUBLE DRAGON
VIKINGS -PK (-130)
JETS +7.5 (-125)
MustWinSports
5 DIME MINNESOTA
ATS LOCK CLUB
8 Units SD -7 (playoff lock of year)
4 Units Dall +3
NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Dallas +3
3* N.Y. Jets +7
3* Villanova -6
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Minnesota
Jeff Benton
60 Dime: NEW YORK JETS
Simply put, this is a terrible, terrible matchup for the San Diego Chargers. How can I say that about the hottest team in the NFL, one that is riding an 11-game winning streak? How can I say that when the Jets have to come all the way across the country and play in a hostile environment for the second straight week with a rookie quarterback? Because it’s true. Check the numbers.
The New York Jets had THE best rushing attack in the NFL in the regular season, averaging 172.2 yards per game (4.5 yards per carry), and they were right on that average last week (171 yards) in their 24-14 rout of the Bengals. What’s the Chargers’ Achilles heel on defense? Stopping the run. San Diego allows opposing backs to gain 117.6 ypg on the ground, which isn’t THAT bad … but the fact they allow 4.4 yards per carry is horrible. I know what you’re thinking: “Well, the Chargers will just commit extra defenders to the run and force Mark Sanchez to beat them.” You don’t think that was the Bengals game plan last week? You don’t think that’s been the game plan for every defense pretty much all season? Hasn’t worked out to well, has it? In fact, The Jets are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games, and they’ve outrushed all seven opponents by yard margins of 107, 137, 186, 76, 16, 248 and 72.
Now flip things around. It’s no secret that the Chargers, despite the presence of future Hall-of-Famer LaDainian Tomlinson, can’t run a lick. Their 88.9 rushing ypg (3.3 ypc) ranks 31st out of the 32 teams in the league. San Diego’s offensive hopes now rely solely on the right arm of Philip Rivers. Make no mistake: Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game are deadly. However, they haven’t faced a pass defense as strong as the Jets, who were #1 in the NFL defending the pass (giving up a paltry 150.4 yards per game through the air and just EIGHT passing TDs all year!).
So let’s sum it up: The Jets run the ball better than any team in the league, and San Diego’s defense struggles to stop the run. Meanwhile, the Chargers can’t run the football and like to chuck it all over the field, but New York has the best pass defense (and the #1 shutdown cornerback in Darrelle Revis) in the league.
Thus I ask you: How in the world is New York catching a touchdown today? And in some spots MORE than a touchdown? My best guess is it has everything to do with Sanchez. Well, the kid proved last week that he’s a cool customer. No, he wasn’t asked to do too much (and he won’t be today, either), but he did make some very strong throws (in brutal weather conditions). Most importantly, he didn’t make any mistakes. In fact, you know how many interceptions Sanchez has thrown in his last three games? As many as you and me: Zero. If he continues that streak today, not only will the Jets cover this ridiculous pointspread, I promise you they’ll win this game outright!
A few final points to make: As noted above, the Jets are on a roll, winning three straight and six of seven (both SU and ATS). While that pales in comparison to San Diego’s 11-game winning streak, note that the Chargers prevailed by more than seven points just once in their last five games. In fact, the Chargers needed a 53-yard field goal in the waning seconds to beat the Bengals 27-24 at home three weeks ago – the same Bengals that New York just pummeled each of the last two weeks by scores of 37-0 (home) and 24-14 (road).
Also, San Diego has played 12 playoff games since 1993. Do you know how many of those 12 games the Chargers have won by more than six points? ONE! In fact, one of those 12 playoff games was in January 2005, when New York went to San Diego and stunned the Bolts 20-17 in overtime. Guess what the pointspread was that day? Chargers minus-7!
Bottom line, guys: This number is ludicrous. In fact, I made the Chargers a 4½-point favorite last Sunday when this matchup was set, and I thought that might’ve been a little high. And even though both favorites won and covered easily yesterday, that actually works in our favor, because odds are one of this week's three big favorites will not cover.
Fact is, the Jets are playing with a perfect mixture of confidence and cockiness right now; they match up extremely well against the finesse Chargers; and they’ve got a ton of trends pointing in their favor (they’ve won and cashed in four straight road games, and they’re on additional ATS runs 7-2 as an underdog, 9-3 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 in January and 4-1 against San Diego).
Even though it wouldn’t shock me in the least, I’m going to stop short of calling for an outright upset.
Prediction: San Diego 23, New York 20
Matt Fargo
10* Minnesota Vikings
9* New York Jets
KIKKI SPORTS
2* Lock Game of the Month
Villanova
ANTHONY REDD
25-Dime - Jets-Chargers Under
10-Dime - Providence
10-Dime - Saint Louis
Jack Clayton
3* COWBOYS / VIKINGS OVER
TEDDY JUNE
*10 MINN/DAL UNDER
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy 2010 AFC Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR New York Jets +9
The Jets have the kind of team that can cool off the San Diego Chargers. They have the #1 overall defense and the #1 passing defense in the league. They have the #1 running game to keep Philip Rivers on the sidelines for the majority of the game. The Jets are overflowing with confidence right now, which is a reflection of their head coach. They truely believe they can win the Super Bowl this season. Mark Sanchez has gone 3 straight games without throwing an interception, and their playoff lives were at stake in all 3 contests. Teams know they are going to run the ball, but they cannot stop it. The Jets rushed for 202 yards, 257 yards and 171 yards in their last 3 games, respectively. Sanchez went 12-of-15 for 182 yards against the Bengals last week, taking advantage of wide open receivers as the Bengals did everything they could to try and stop the run. The Chargers have had some time to cool off with their bye week, and the last thing a team wants is a bye when they are on a winning streak like the one San Diego is on right now. This will be a factor Sunday. The Jets are 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take New York and the points. (This is still a 6* Play at +7, a 5* Play at +6.5 or less)
5* Wiseguy Cowboys/Vikings NFC Divisional Round "BLOOD BATH" Dallas +3
It's safe to say that the Dallas Cowboys are playing better than any other team in the league right now. This Dallas defense has shut down 2 of the best offenses in the league the over the last 4 weeks. Dallas has faced the Saints, Redskins and the Eagles twice in the last 4 weeks, giving up a total of just 31 combined points in those 4 contests for an average of 7.75 points/game. Their pass rush is dominant with Ware and Spencer coming off the edge, and Jay Ratliff has been a beast inside. Their secondary isn't allowing receivers to run loose, either. Their offense is hitting on all cylinders, with Tony Romo throwing for 228 or more yards in each of his last 7 games. They also have their running game going, rushing for 108 or more yards in 5 straight contests. This team doesn't have a weakness right now. The Vikings certainly have a weakness in their secondary, which Romo will exploit. Minnesota allows 218 passing yards/game this season and opposing QB's are completing 63.7% of their passes. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Dallas has had the better run defense here at the end of the season as well. The Cowboys haven't allowed more than 73 rushing yards in any of their last 5 games, while the Vikings have allowed 105 or more rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 contests. All statistical categories favor the Cowboys, and they really have all the momentum and a ton of confidence heading into this one. Take the Cowboys and the points.
Fantasy Gametime Sports
1000* Minnesota Vikings
ATS Financial
Dall/Minn Over 45.5
Dr. Bob
NY Jets (+7) 18 SAN DIEGO 21
If Mark Sanchez continues to avoid interceptions then the Jets may end up being Super Bowl champions this season. This New York team reminds me a lot of the Ravens team that won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. All Dilfer had to do was avoid turnovers and let his rushing attack and great defense do the rest - and that's all Sanchez has to do too. Sanchez threw 20 interceptions in his first 13 games of the season, but has thrown zero picks in each of the last 3 games. Sanchez can even afford to throw an interception and still win this game given how good the Jets' defense is.
New York's defense is the best in the NFL by far, allowing just 4.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. However, the defense is even better than those numbers suggest, as the Jets' pass defense is the best I have ever seen in the games in which veteran cornerback Lito Sheppard was healthy and playing opposite of the NFL's best CB Darrelle Revis. Sheppard started only 3 games through week 11 (weeks 1, 2 and 6) and returned to the lineup for good in week 12. The Jets' pass defense has been incredible in those 10 games, allowing just 3.7 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average team. Even if I take out their week 17 domination of the Bengals (0 pass yards on 22 pass plays), the Jets' pass defense is still a mind blowing 2.2 yppp better than average - the best I have ever seen in the NFL. Mediocre and bad quarterbacks had no chance to throw against the Jets, but even very good quarterbacks were held in check. Houston's very good pass attack managed just 4.1 yards per pass play in week 1 and the Jets limited Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 4.6 yppp in week 2. Only Peyton Manning's 192 pass yards on 21 pass plays in week 16 blemished the Jets' incredible record, but the Jets were still 2.1 yppp better than average against those 3 great quarterbacks (5.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.5 yppp against an average defense)
San Diego's Philip Rivers had perhaps the best season of any quarterback, averaging 8.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback, but my math model projects a modest 6.0 yppp for Rivers in this game. The Chargers' rushing attack is terrible (3.5 ypr against teams that would allow 4.5 ypr to an average team) and my math model predicts just 3.3 ypr for San Diego in this game, so Rivers will have to play exceptionally well to move the ball on the Jets.
With the defense playing so well, Jets' coach Rex Ryan decided to rely on that defense and a good rushing attack while asking his rookie quarterback to take less chances in the passing game. That strategy should continue to work given San Diego's sub-par run defense (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense) and the Chargers' pass defense is just average, so I see no reason why the Jets can't continue to control the ball with their good rushing attack and play action passes. Sanchez threw the ball only 15 times last week, but he averaged 12.1 yards per pass play and has actually been better than average throwing the ball since top receiver Jerricho Cotchery returned from injury in week 8 after missing most of 3 games. Braylon Edwards was acquired in a trade with Cleveland while Cotchery was out and Sanchez has averaged 6.5 yppp with both receivers available to throw to (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback). I'm not assuming that Sanchez will continue to avoid interceptions as he's done in his last 3 games, but he should have a decent game against a mediocre Chargers' defense.
My math model projects the Jets to out-gain the Chargers 321 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 276 yards at 4.9 yppl in this game with the Chargers having a projected 0.5 turnover advantage. Overall, the math picks this game even despite 4.3 points of home field advantage. San Diego does apply to a 37-8 ATS playoff situation and that angle will keep me from making the Jets a Best Bet in this game. However, the line value favoring New York is more significant than the situation favoring the Chargers and I'll consider the Jets a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I'll lean with the Under at 41 points or higher.
Dallas (+2.5) 24 MINNESOTA 25
Dallas is playing the best football in the NFC since free safety Ken Hamlin returned from injury to solidify the defense in week 14. It was week 14 that the Cowboys ended a 2 game losing streak with an upset road win against the unbeaten Saints and Dallas is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS since then.
The Cowboys' pass defense was horrible without Hamlin keeping teams from going deep against them (they allowed 6.9 yards per pass play in 4 games without him), but Dallas rates at 0.9 yppp better than average with Hamlin in the lineup and their run defense is 0.2 ypr better than average. I rate Minnesota's offense at 0.6 yards per play better than average but that's only slightly better than a Dallas defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average with Hamlin in the lineup.
The Cowboys' offense has been outstanding this season, averaging 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, and they have a big edge over a mediocre Vikings' defense that has surrendered 5.3 yppl to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team.
Minnesota is not as good offensively or defensively as the Cowboys are and my math model projects Dallas with a 6.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl advantage in this game even with the additional home field advantage that home teams in this round of the playoffs have (due to the bye week). Even with the extra 1.5 points of home field advantage my math still picks this game even, so the line value favors the Cowboys. I'll lean with Dallas plus the points and I'll lean over the total.