SIXTH SENSE
Opinions
MINNESOTA -2.5 Dallas 45.5
This is probably the toughest game on the board this week. Dallas smoked Philly again last week and although the final stats read Philly gaining 6.1yppl to 5.9yppl for Dallas, the game didn’t play out that way. Take away the fluke 76 yard touchdown pass early in the game for Philly, and they only averaged 4.8yppl. In addition, some of Philly’s other significant yardage came late in the game when the final score was decided. So, Dallas dominated a good Philly team for the second consecutive week in a row. Now, here comes Minnesota on the road. This will be a much tougher match up for Dallas. Dallas runs the ball better, throws the ball better and defends the pass better. Minnesota is slightly better defending the rush. Dallas qualifies in a negative playoff situation, which is 60-24-4 and plays against them here. The Vikings also qualify in a blow out playoff situation, which is 16-3. But, Dallas also qualifies in the same fundamental rushing playoff situation they qualified in last week, which is 57-23-3. Numbers favor Minnesota by just one half point and predict about 45 points. Dallas won at Philadelphia and New Orleans this year, while losing at GB. Minnesota was 8-0 SU and scored at least 27 points in every home game this year. While Dallas went 2-1 SU on the road against fellow playoff teams, they allowed 16, 17 and 17 points so Minnesota’s run of 27 points in every home game will be tested this week. Minnesota defeated Cincinnati easily but I don’t consider them in the same class as Dallas. They defeated GB by seven and Baltimore by two points. They had a much larger lead on Baltimore but then lost Antoine Winfield. Winfield is back this week but still hampered by his injury. E.J. Henderson is also out for the year and they will miss him. Of the three different ratings I use, the largest spread for Minnesota is four points. I’ll call this a three point game and let the spread determine where I lean. MINNESOTA 24 DALLAS 21
SAN DIEGO -7 NY Jets 42
Jets rolled over Cincinnati last week, out gaining the Bengal’s 6.3yppl to 4.6yppl. They did allow Cincinnati to rush for 171 yards at 7.8ypr, which was a little surprising, although the strength of the Jets defense has been their pass defense, which allows just 4.8yps against 6.2yps. That will be tested this week because SD averages 8.1yps against 6.3yps. But, I’m pretty sure SD won’t rush for 171 yards this week as they average just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr. Both defenses in this game have the advantage, with the Jets having a slight advantage. SD qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 41-10. Meanwhile, the Jets qualify in negative playoff situations, which are 42-17-4 and 60-24-4 and play against them here. The problem, however, is I only favor SD by four points and predict about 44 points. That’s enough to keep me off of SD in this game but the Jets played two high scoring offenses on the road this year and lost by 14 at NO and by 17 at NE. In both of those games, turnovers gave both NO and NE the majority of their points. SD also hasn’t defeated a solid team at home by more than eight points this year so this figures to be another tough test for the Chargers. I’ll side with the underdog in this game simply because of the dominating defense. SAN DIEGO 23 NY JETS 21
Rocketman
3* Dallas/Minn Under
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
I am sorry, but I am not putting all of my eggs in this Jets basket just because they beat a Cincinnati team that was absolutely HORRID last week. Yeah, I did back the Bengals big last weekend, and Cincy did their business on the ground, but the Bengals couldn't do much else right, as Carson Palmer, Shayne Graham, and Marvin Lewis looked like they were playing and coaching in a preseason game!
Now 2nd week on the road, and on the west coast no less, and AGAIN with the rookie QB! This is not a good spot for the Jets, but it is a GREAT spot for the Chargers who I feel are more than ready to take that next step in the postseason.
The last 2 years they did not have a bye, yet were able to win and cover their opening playoff games. The bye week, the home field, and an extremely confident sqaud that has won 11 straight football games is ready to advance to the AFC Championship Game in resounding fashion.
"Revis Island" is just that, a one-man island, and Rivers and company will find a way to exploit this "vaunted" defense.
This one is set up for a big Chargers win and cover. If not, I may personally hunt Norv Turner down if he blows this SLAM DUNK.
Lay it!
10 DIMER - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The biggest reason I like the Vikings today is a man named Adrian Peterson. Dallas has benefitted the last 3 weeks from playing divisional rivals who were not able to run the ball. That allowed the Cowboys - who are quite familiar with the NFC East to begin with - to key on pass defense. That just isn't the case today, as Dallas must respect the Vikings running game, which will allow the Silver Fox - Brett Favre to do his thing though the air.
This is a bad spot for Dallas, as they will struggle in the Vikings lair today.
Minnesota went 8-0 straight up at home this season, and they also went 6-2 against the spread in those 8 wins, outscoring the opposition by a double-digits average in those wins.
You just get the feeling that if this game were in Dallas it might be a different story, but ALL of Minnesota's struggles at the end of the year came away from home. The Vikes are right as rain, PURPLE REIGN on their home turf, and they will be once again on Sunday.
Lay the small wood with Minnesota.
10 DIMER - MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES
Both schools sport near identical records, but for my money this is a good spot for Marquette to get their ship righted so to speak.
Marquette has lost 3 of their last 4, but they have played some Big East "heavy hitters" - Villanova twice, West Virginia, and Georgetown in that span!
Providence is solid, but not in the class of the other schools just mentioned.
The Friars are 5-1 against the spread away from Rhode Island this season, a mark that seems a little unreal to me. It is about time that 5-1 mark took a hit.
Marquette has won the last 3 series meetings, and 4 of the last 5 with a 3-2 spread mark. I like the Golden Eagles to up those marks.
Take Marquette minus the points.
Great Lakes Sports
Illinois State at Drake
Play: 4* Illinois St
The Illinois State Red Birds are a stunning 4-1 ATS when playing in their last five road games, and the Red Birds are a very solid 5-2 ATS when playing in their last seven games overall. The Drake Bulldogs are a terrible 4-10-1 when playing in their last fifteen home games, and the Bulldogs are a dismal 0-4 ATS when playing in their last four Sunday games. We look for the Illinois State Red Birds to grab the road ATS Win & Cover tonight
BRIAN GRAVES
UConn -1 over Michigan
The Huskies have had their problems lately in the Big East getting off to a 2-3 start, but they have an excellent matchup today against Michigan. The Wolverines just don't have the firepower to hang with UConn and Stanley Robinson and Dyson should have their way with the Michigan defense. The Huskies jump out early and build a comfortable lead as they cruise in the 2nd half to a 79-65 win!
Craig Davis
50 Dime – Cowboys-Vikings UNDER
20 Dime – COWBOYS (absolutely advise you to buy the 1/2 point up to +3 or +3 1/2)
10 Dime – JETS (buy the half point if your line is +7 or if it drops down to +6 1/2)
COWBOYS/VIKINGS UNDER --- Top play of the weekend on the Cowboys/Vikings NFC Divisional matchup to go under a ridiculously high total. I think Vegas set this number just low enough for people to go nuts on the over... and they have... and the number has gone in the wrong direction. Reverse line movement if I've ever seen it. This total opened up at around 48 and has been recently seen as low as 45 in some places, yet as of the time of this writing, over 80% of the wagers are coming in on the OVER. It appears to me, at least on the surface, that Vegas is begging you to take the over.
But before I even looked at those numbers, I looked at these two defenses and the fact that both teams still want to establish the run. Think about it... if you're either offensive coordinator today, would you rather throw the ball or keep it on the ground so the other offense is sitting on the sidelines? Since both teams are built to run the ball (huge offensive lines and workhorse backs), it's only common sense to think both teams will try to rely on their ground game, especially early, in an attempt to soften the opposing defense before they really open up the passing game.
Let's first look at Dallas, defensively. Has there been a better defense in the last 10 weeks than the Dallas Cowboys? Forget the fact they held Philadelphia to just 14 points in the last two games (and 7 of those came in garbage time). Forget the fact they held the vauted New Orleans offense to just 17 points (3 at halftime). Let's look at the fact the Cowboys have allowed over 20 points just once in the last 11 games and only four times all season. On the road they allow just over 17 PPG and have proven to be one of the best run defenses in the league. Having the ability to stop the run combined with a pass rush that comes from the front three or four allows the secondary and linebackers to drop back in coverage. This will make it extra tough on Brett Favre today because he's used to having an extraordinary amount of time in the pocket behind this huge offensive line.
As for Minnesota's defense, let's just say they are happy to be playing at home. Yes, I realize they've been a little suspect in some recent road games, but it's almost as if they were going through the motions. For whatever reason, this defense thrives off its crowd more than most teams do and it's going to cause problems for Tony Romo and the Dallas defense. Listen to these numbers... 7, 10, 9, 10, and 10. Those are the points allowed by Minnesota's defense in its last five home games. And again, that's why I think the Cowboys would love nothing more than to keep the ball on the ground, keep everything in front of the Minnesota defense and play somewhat conservative. I can promise you Dallas doesn't want to get into a shootout with Brett Favre in the Metrodome. On the other hand, I don't believe Minnesota wants to get into a shootout with Dallas either.
The last 10 meetings between these two teams have seen an average of 37 PPG between them and seven of those ten games saw totals finish with less than 45 points. I'm telling you right now, the only way this game goes over the total is if some crazy, fluky things like kick returns for TDs or silly turnovers that result in touchdowns or phenomenal field position. Otherwise, I think we're looking at a final score in the neighborhood of 20-17. Top play of the day on the UNDER.
DALLAS COWBOYS (absolutely advise you to buy the 1/2 point up to +3 or +3 1/2) --- Two fairly evenly matched teams here, but I'm just a little more confident in Dallas' defense than I am Minnesota's. Yes, I realize that in my above analysis I stated how well the Vikings defense has played at home... and they do... but they are missing a HUGE piece to that defensive puzzle that I believe will hurt the Vikings in the running department. EJ Henderson broke his leg in the Vikings Monday night loss to the Bears a few weeks back and have since tried to piece things together in their linebacking corps. And I'm still not 100% sold on this secondary with the injury to Antoine Winfield. Granted, he's doing better in practice this week, healthwise, but for those of you who watched him in that Monday night loss to Chicago, you know he wasn't close to healthy and was beaten on numerous occasions... including the game winner.
Though Brett Favre has the advantage over Tony Romo in terms of seasons played and playoff games won, but one thing that continues to haunt him is the 0-3 record, all-time, vs. the Cowboys in the playoffs. And let's also not forget that Favre only plays as well as Adrian Peterson plays. If the running game gets going, Favre looks a lot better. If Peterson and Taylor struggle early, Favre struggles. I'm putting my money on the Dallas run defense to keep A.D. in check and forcing Brett Favre to beat them. Field position and penalties will be the key, and I know for a fact that Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett have preached penalty control all week in practice. I think you'll see a focused Cowboys team come out and win this game outright today, 20-17.
NY JETS (buy the half point if your line is +7 or if it drops down to +6 1/2) --- To be honest with you, this selection has as much to do with picking the underdog as it does picking the Jets because of their defense. What you have to understand in handicapping is that it's not always about backing the better team or the hotter team, it's more about getting a feel about how things are going in Vegas and hopping on a side because they fit a spot and not necessarily because they're the better team. This game is a prime example of that scenario.
Let's not kid ourselves... the Jets aren't as good as San Diego as a whole. You know it and I know it. But we've all heard about backdoor covers and upsets, right? In a perfect world I'd probably select San Diego minus the number because I believe they are 7 points (or more) better than the Jets. But with both favorites covering yesterday by a comfortable margin the underdogs are due. I've never seen in all my years of sports betting/capping where all four favorites covered in the Divisional Weekend. And since both favs covered Saturday, I know the average bettor will be ALL OVER the Chargers today.
The Jets do two things quite well that will keep them within the 7-point line today. First, they run the ball better than any team in the NFL and their o-line is built to do just that. Faneca, Mangold, Ferguson, etc. These guys are the best in the business at opening holes for the backs in the run game which should soften the Chargers up just enough for Sanchez to be effective in the short passing game. Secondly, aside from Dallas, the Jets might be the most complete defense in the league and they absolutely will not allow Philip Rivers and company to treat them like a hand puppet. San Diego doesn't need to prove anything today and although I'm not saying they won't try their hardest, I do believe they'll do whatever they can to "just get by" without showing anything to the Colts. Take the Jets and the points.
Chris Jordan
400♦ DALLAS COWBOYS
400♦ Cowboys/Vikings UNDER
400♦ ILLINOIS STATE
Bob Balfe
Cowboys +2.5 over Vikings
Jets +7 over Chargers
Raptors +2 over Mavericks
Villanova -5.5 over Georgetown
Tom Freese
Two teams headed in opposite directions here as Anaheim has won 5 of their last 6 games while Calgary has lost 5 of their last 6 games. Anaheim is led in goals by Bobby Ryan with 20. Corey Perry has 18 goals and leads the team in points with 46 points. Ryan Getzlaf has 12 goals and 33 assits for 45 points. Goaltender Jonas Hiller has a 91.6 save percentage. The home team is 22-5 the last 27 meetings. As always Calgary is led by Jerome Iginla and his 21 goals 21 assits Goaltender Miikka Kiprosoff has a 2.15 Goals against average. Rene Bourque 17 goals and 21 assits. The Flames are 1-6 their last 7 meetings with the Ducks. 10* PLAY ON ANAHEIM -
John Ryan
AFC 25* Titan Game of the Year
New York Jets
Psychic
2 unit under SD-NYJ
3 unit under Dal-Min (best bet)
3 unit San Diego -7.5 (best bet)
5 unit Dallas +2.5 (wiseguy)
Wayne Root
Vegas Legend - Connecticut -2
Millionaire - Wake Forest +14
Tim Trushel
Villanova Under
Kelso
25 units Marquette -9
10 units Illinois St -4
3 units San Jose St +2
Don Wallace Sports
Chargers/Jets UNDER 42.5
Cowboys/Vikings UNDER 46