STEVE DUEMIG
30 Dime - Chargers
This line opened at SD - 9 and was quickly bet down to it's current level of a TD. Sharp money? Most likely but the books know that the public will not have any problem laying a TD with the home team. And neither will we because the value is now on SD. The books have also exposed themselves to a middle of 8 if it were to land on 8 it would crush the books, but it is such a dead number they are really not worried. I also think that as soon as the number went down a half to -8.5 they moved the line not by money but by the fear of teasers. Therefore we are benefited by this most gracious line move down. You want to be on the minus 7 as soon as possible. Why? Here goes. Number one is the absolutely huge edge at the QB position between Rivers and the rookie Sanchez. He made some nice plays last week but that was last week. Rivers is a play making machine and he has the all the weapons to get it done. Yes the Jets have a great defense but teams have beaten them this year. They haven't gone undefeated. Look for SD to take advantage of the Jets aggressiveness and use it against them. The Chargers are one of the best screen teams in the league and that's how you slow down aggressive defenses. They can also run the ball with LT, who is finally healthy for a playoff game, and Sproles. They also have one of the best pass catching TE's in Gates, who the Jets do not have an answer for. Reavis may be able to handle Vincent Jackson but Gates is the killer here.
The Jets can run the ball but look for the Chargers to learn from the Bengal mistakes last week. The Jets used a lot of counters in their run game to gash an over pursuing defense and they did a good job of it. Chargers are better defensively. They will pressure Sanchez as well and force him into mistakes. If the Chargers get a lead they will make the Jets throw it and that is something they do not want to do is put it into a rookies hands. I look for a double digit win here by the Chargers. In my best Arnold imitation it's GO CHARGUHS GO!!
10 Dime - Cowboys
Everyone is trying to explain why the Vikings have become such a passing team and I have yet to hear what I think is the real reason. Not because they are putting it in the hands of Favre, who if they fall behind will be more of a liability than an asset. I think they have taken the air out of Petersen because he is a turnover machine with his fumbling problem. Now you have the Dalls rush D which is extremely good and this basically removes Petersen anyway. Dallas has not allowed a 100 yd rusher all year, so why start now. The Cowboys also have the edge in rushing the passer with their two bookends Ware and Spencer. Jared Allen is a hulk at home but look for Dallas to chip him all day and take him away. I don't think that either team will run it successfully but if someone were to I think it would be Dallas. The number one factor in determining playoff winners from this round forward is not offense, like it is all season. It's the ability of a defense to stop the run the best, and I think that edge has to go to the team who has not allowed the century mark to be hit by a rusher. The Dallas Cowboys. The linesmakers have been reluctant to move this game off of the -2.5 for Minny and that usually is a sign of lack of support for the favorite. The sharp money which we will be will be looking for the public to come out and bet Favre and get the best number possible. That's what we will do as well. We should get the 3 without a problem and if we don't then you may have to buy onto the +3.Sunday's Winners
Cal Sports
4* Hawaii
Special K
5* Saint Louis
5* Providence
7* UCONN
King Creole
2* DAL / MIN Under 46
Dallas comes in as hot as any team in the NFL, winning AND covering each of their last 4 games. Last week’s victim was fellow NFC East foe Philadelphia Eagles. Meanwhile, the host Vikings wrapped up their regular season with a whipping of the New York Giants by a score of 44-7. Prior to that, they shit the bed in the 2 previous games. They lost OUTRIGHT as big favorites to the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers. All of these situations were queried in our Playbook NFL Post-season database. And the results indicate a LOW-sco‡ring affair is in order.
1-6 O/U s’92: All DIV Round road teams playing off 4 or more SU and ATS wins in a row (Dall). Underdogs of 10 < pts have gone a perfect 0-4 O/U.
0-5 O/U s’98: All DIV Round teams playing off a SU and ATS win over a DIVISION opponent (Dall).
1-8 O/U s’97: All PLAYOFF Teams playing off a SU and ATS win in their last game… and BB SU and ATS losses in the previous two games (Minn). If the OU line is 51 < points, these teams have gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U.
1-7 O/U S’00: All DIV Round home teams who allowed 7 < points in their last reg season game (Minn), when the OU line is 51 < pts.
In the DIVISION ROUND, when the home team is a v-e-r-y short favorite, it’s all about the UNDER.
3-18 O/U: DIV Round home favs of 5 points (Minn). In the last 6 years, this pointspread/OU line combo has gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U.
A look at this game’s higher-than-normal OU line also reveals some solid UNDER tendencies.
1-10 O/U s’95: All DIV Round games with an OU line in the range of 45.5 to 48 points.
The Cowboys have turned up their defense since their Dec. 13th game vs San Diego in which they allowed 20 points. Since then, they allowed 17 to the saints, shutouts to Washingtom and Phily… and then 14 to Philly last week. That's about 10 ppg in those 5 games. Meanwhile, the Minnesota defense has not allowed over 10 pts in any of their last 5 home games. For the season they have allowed only 15.5 ppg at home.
Dallas is 1-11 O/U in road games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half. Average totals points in these games: 33.7.
Over the last 2 seasons, Dallas is 0-7 O/U vs good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season. The average score was Dallas 15.1, Opponent 11.1.
When tabbed as short home favs, the Vikings ‘go low’.
Minnesota is 2-10 O/U as non-div home favs of 3 > points.
Vic Monte Sports
2000* Max Out Playoff GOY - Vikings -2.5
I am backing the Vikings as my 2000* Max Out NFC Playoff Game of the Year. While all the Suckers & Squares are handicapping this game like a true square. Dallas is Hot and the Vikings are falling apart, Not so fast Public Joe! Dallas beat the Saints and that was a great win, they were desperate for a win coming off a home loss to the Chargers. Then they beat the Hideous Redskins (Only 17-0) & beat the Eagles Twice including last weeks playoff game. I am not going to put too much stock in those Eagles wins because Dallas just owned Philly this year! This Vikings team is a different team. They will actually run the ball. I am not too impressed with Dallas is so called hot streak! The Vikings, lost 2 road games in December against two hungry and hot teams, Carolina & Chicago. The Vikings showed heart and rallied a big 2nd half comeback and almost beat the Bears on National TV. That game proved to me that Minnesota had fight left in them. A Great Running Back, An Awesome Defense & A Hall of Fame Superbowl Champion QB, inside one of the loudest Domes in the World! Mix in the fact that Dallas is a Money Burning 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Road Playoff Games & you got yourself One Huge Play! 2000* MAX OUT NFC PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR - VIKINGS -2.5
California Sports
4* Toledo Under
4* Hawaii
3* Marquette
The Duke's Sports
Dallas (+2') for 2 Units
The Cowboys turned their season around at New Orleans on December 19th and have been playing their best ball down the stretch. Defensively, Dallas has been lights out allowing just 4.7 ppg over their last three. And Dallas can rush the passer (42 sacks) which should create problems for Favre, who has a tendency to force things while under duress; consequently, we'll look for the well positioned secondary of Dallas to deliver. We realize that the Vikings play extremely well at home; however, Dallas is their most formidable opponent moreover, they're healthy. On the other hand, the Vikings have a void without LB E.J. Henderson, especially when explosive Felix Jones is hitting holes like he did last week. And Vikings' C Winfield is struggling with a foot ailment which should create a match-up problem with Austin. We'll look for Dallas to limit RB Peterson and deliver here. Vikings are just 7-15-1 ATS following a SU win.
Executive
500 Vikings
250 Providence
Blazer
3* San Diego
Mike Neri
3* San Diego
Sports Bank
400 Jets
SPORTS UNLIMITED
7* CHARLOTTE
FairWay Jay
4* Indiana +10.5
4* Illinois State -5
C-Star Sports
10000 Units San Diego minus the points over Jets
Prime Time Sports
Jets Over