Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, January 2,2011

Teddy Covers

Steelers
Chiefs
Redskins
Bears/Packers Over

Ben Burns

10* Oakland Under 43.5
10* Houston -3
10* Seattle +3
9* San Francisco -6
9* Denver +3

Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

3% HOUSTON -3

KANSAS CITY -3 Oakland 43.5

KC says they will play their starters in this game but who knows how long they will actually play. McFadden may miss this game for Oakland. Oakland qualifies in situations, which are 147-87-5 (at +3 or more) and 116-41-3 (at +4 or more), while KC qualifies in a last game situation, which is 24-3-0. Numbers favor KC by six points and predict about 46 points assuming all starters play. This has been a road dominated series where Oakland has won the last three years here and the four years prior to that, which they lost, none of the losses were by more than four points. If I knew for sure KC was playing their starters and this number slipped under three points I would consider a shot with KC. KANSAS CITY 24 OAKLAND 16

NEW ENGLAND -4.5 Miami 43.5

NE rolled last week at Buffalo but were out gained 6.2yppl to 5.0yppl but won because of seven Buffalo turnovers. NE says they will play their starters this week and they probably will but for how long is the question. NE qualifies in a last game situation, which is 24-3-0. Numbers, assuming starters play the whole game, would favor NE by about 10 points and predict about 48 points. I’d consider NE but if they pull their starters early (and banged up players probably won’t play at all), Miami’s defense is above average to keep them in this game. Along with a NE defense that isn’t great and would be worse if their starters come out. NEW ENGLAND 24 MIAMI 17

INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 Tennessee 48

Indy needs a win or a tie or a Jacksonville loss to win the division.

Indy qualifies in a last game situation, which is 24-3-0. Indy also qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 126-58-8 and plays against them here. Numbers, which don’t value Indy very much, favor them by only three points and predict about 43 points. I’ll lean towards Tennessee because it’s a lot of points but you can just about mark Indy down for 30 points a game, especially at home and if that’s the case, it will make it tough for Tennessee to cover this game. INDIANAPOLIS 30 TENNESSEE 23

HOUSTON -3 Jacksonville 46

Jacksonville needs a win and a Indy loss to make the playoffs.

Houston lost at Denver last week 24-23 but they out gained a bad Denver team 7.3yppl to 6.8yppl. Jacksonville lost at home to Washington but they out gained the Redskins 5.2yppl to 3.9yppl. Jacksonville was hurt by turnovers, which gave Washington great field position that was turned into a touchdown and then a long drive that finished with a missed field goal. And, a final turnover in OT, that gave Washington a short field goal. Houston played without wide receiver Andre Johnson but still managed to average 9.4yps. Jacksonville played without running back Jones-Drew and only averaged 3.4ypr. This week Johnson will miss the game again for Houston as will Jones-Drew for Jacksonville but they will also miss QB David Garrard. Trent Edwards will get the start for Jacksonville and he represents about 1.0yps worse than Garrard and a higher interception ratio.

Houston rushes the ball better than Jacksonville, averaging 4.7ypr against teams who allow 4.3ypr to Jacksonville’s 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr. They throw the ball much better at 6.7yps against teams allowing 6.2yps, while Jacksonville averages just 6.1yps against 6.3yps. On defense Houston is much better against the rush, allowing just 3.9ypr against teams averaging 4.3ypr, while Jacksonville allows 4.5ypr against 4.4ypr. Jacksonville is slightly better against the pass but both teams are horrible. Jacksonville allows 7.4yps against teams averaging 6.5yps, while Houston allows 7.6yps against 6.5yps. With Jones-Drew and Garrard missing this game, I could make the argument Houston is even better in pass defense due to the decimated offensive weapons for Jacksonville, which is probably worse than Houston losing Andre Johnson.

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers, assuming everyone is playing, favored Houston by about six points and predict about 48 points. Houston has played two games without Johnson this year and scored 23 last week at Denver and scored 31 earlier in the year at Oakland. Reports are Gary Kubiak will keep his job and they will bring in Wade Phillips to manage the defense. This is important because I feel it helps to keep Houston playing with some incentive to win this game. Arian Foster has a chance to win the rushing title as well so expect him to play to that number. He is challenging Charles from KC who plays earlier in the day so Foster will know what he needs to do when they start. Houston has the much better offense and both defenses are equally as bad. Houston played Tennessee earlier this year with a rookie quarterback and shut out Tennessee. Edwards is certainly not a rookie but he’s still a large drop off compared to Garrard and Houston, at home, with value laying a short number represents a good opportunity. HOUSTON 27 JACKSONVILLE 13

Pittsburgh -5.5 CLEVELAND 37

Pittsburgh needs a win to gain a first round bye in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh dominated a bad Carolina team last week by throwing for 8.4yps and allowing an anemic Carolina passing game to average just 1.7yps. Pittsburgh averaged just 3.5ypr. Cleveland lost at home to Baltimore, 24-10, but they out gained the Ravens 5.0yppl to 4.4yppl. They out passed Baltimore 5.9yps to 4.9yps but four Cleveland turnovers did them in. Baltimore scored 17 of their 24 points on three drives of 38 yards or less. Twice Cleveland drove deep into Baltimore territory only to turn the ball over.

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by about six points and predict about 31 points. Peyton Hillis may miss this game for Cleveland. Cleveland has struggled lately on offense, scoring no more than 17 points in each of their last four games. They’ve stayed in games, having lost only four games by seven or more points. Unfortunately, those four losses came to Pittsburgh once and Baltimore twice along with Atlanta. They added a fifth loss by six points to the Jets in OT. They’ve lost by two against KC and defeated NO. But, in five of their seven games against playoff teams, they lost those by six or more points. Pittsburgh’s been nothing great on the road, however, winning just two of seven games by more than six points. I’ll lean with Pittsburgh based on the fact they are in better form right now. PITTSBURGH 20 CLEVELAND 10

BALTIMORE -9.5 Cincinnati 43

Baltimore could secure a playoff bye if Pittsburgh losses and Baltimore wins.

Cincinnati has put together a couple of solid games, especially last week at home against SD, winning 34-20 as they passed for 12.8yps and held SD to 6.1yps. Baltimore won 24-10 at Cleveland but were out gained in that game and survived on Cleveland turnovers and a short field.

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Baltimore by eight points and predict about 47 points. Playing the young receivers last week helped Cincinnati and it remains to be seen how that works this week. If they produce again, it could lead to a high scoring game, assuming Baltimore plays their starters the whole game. If Pittsburgh is way ahead, they could pull their starters. Cincinnati has been competitive here in Baltimore having won four of the last six years. During that time when Baltimore has won, they have won by only six and seven points. Cincinnati has looked better the last few weeks but they still have plenty of injuries on defense and that may catch up with them this week. I’ll side with value and history but it’s a weak lean. BALTIMORE 27 CINCINNATI 20

DETROIT -3.5 Minnesota 42

Both teams came up with huge wins last week on the road, especially Minnesota, as a 14 point dog at mighty Philadelphia. They blitzed Philly and forced six sacks and a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. Philly had scored at least 26 points in every game Michael Vick had started and finished so holding Philly to just 14 points last week was quite an accomplishment. Detroit out scored Miami 17-3 in the fourth quarter last week to win for the second time in a row on the road (3rd straight win overall) 34-27.

Detroit qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 126-58-8 and plays against them here. Minnesota qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 295-200-22. Numbers favor Detroit by just 2.5 points and predict about 44 points. Minnesota has won eight of the past ten years here with both losses by only three points.

Calvin Johnson is questionable for this game and it doesn’t look like Favre or Sidney Rice will play because of concussions. The Vikings have other injuries that may force more starters to miss this game. Tough call without knowing the status of some of these players. For now I will call for a three point Detroit victory. DETROIT 24 MINNESOTA 21

NY Giants -3.5 WASHINGTON 44

Giants need a win and a loss by GB to make the playoffs.

Redskins won at Jacksonville last week but they were out gained in that game 5.2yppl to 3.9yppl. They benefited from turnovers, which gave them short fields that resulted in a touchdown early in the game and a field goal to win the game in OT. Another long drive by Jacksonville ended with a missed field goal. The Giants were blown out at GB, 45-17 but turned the ball over six times. Both teams averaged 7.0yppl but take away an 85 yard touchdown pass after the GB cornerback fell down and the Giants averaged 5.6yppl. Take away GB’s 80 yard touchdown and they averaged 6.0yppl. But, GB continued to hit on big plays while the Giants managed just one other big play in the game.

The Giants qualify in a negative last game situation, which is 49-23-1 and plays against them here as long as they are favored by 3.5 points or more. Numbers, however, favor the Giants by 6.5 points so there is no value in playing the Redskins. Washington is extremely banged up on defense and I worry about their ability to stop the Giants as long as the Giants are still interested. They play at the same time as GB so as long as GB is not blowing out Chicago, they should remain interested. The Giants lost WR Steve Smith a few weeks ago and now they will be without WR Hakeem Nicks as well. Center Shaun O’Hara will also miss this game. The Giants are coming off two losses but those games were against Philadelphia and Green Bay, while the Redskins have just come off of two competitive games but they were against Dallas and Jacksonville. Big step down in class for the Giants here. Giants have won the last four years here by at least six points in each game. Despite missing the two key receivers, they may just run the ball down Washington’s throat in this game. I respect the situation but not sure Washington can hang here if the Giants are interested. NY GIANTS 23 WASHINGTON 17

GREEN BAY -10 Chicago 41.5

Chicago has the number two seed and a first round bye all locked up. If Atlanta loses their early game, Chicago could secure the number one seed in the NFC. Bears play the late game so they should know their fate when they begin or shortly after that. If GB wins, they are in. If they lose, they need the Giants and TB to also lose. TB plays the early game, while GB and the Giants play at the same time.

Both teams came up with big home wins last week over the NY teams. The Bears defeated the Jets 38-34 and the Packers bombed the Giants 45-17, thanks in large part to six Giant turnovers.

GB qualifies in a last game situation, which is 24-3-0. Numbers actually favor GB by 8.5 points and predict about 36 points. Lovie Smith has said they will play to win and he’s playing his starters. Late Friday, there are reports some of the starters may rest, although it’s not known if those starters are only injured players or non-injured starters. No question Chicago deserves to be where they are at this point but they have fell into some great breaks on the road this year. They faced Carolina without their top two quarterbacks. It should be noted Chicago also played without Cutler in that game. They faced Buffalo at a neutral site, faced Miami with their third string quarterback, faced Minnesota at TCF Stadium (not the dome where the Vikings usually play) and faced rookie Joe Webb for a majority of that game. Their only road game against a potential playoff team – the Giants, resulted in a 17-3 loss, where their quarterbacks were sacked 10 times. The offensive line is much, much better since that game but they haven’t played a top notch team on the road yet this year other than the Giants. The defense has also given up an average of 26 points per game over the last five games, allowing Philly, NE and the Jets to all score at least 26 points in those games, which were all home games. Philly scored garbage points late in the game to get to the 26 points. NE scored 13 points on drives of 18 yards or less or turnovers. The Packers are rolling at home and have scored at least 20 points in every home game and at least 28 points in six of the seven home games, including 45, 34, 45, 28 and 28 in each of their last five home games. Lean towards GB here but tough to say how strong not knowing how long the Chicago starters will play. I believe the last two times Lovie Smith has been in this situation, he has pulled his starters by at least halftime, losing 34-10 in 2005 at Minnesota and 26-7 at home to GB in 2006. Ironically, in 2006, the Packers were knocked out of the playoffs when the Giants defeated the Redskins. GREEN BAY 33 CHICAGO 17

PHILADELPHIA -6.5 Dallas 45.5

Philly is locked into the number three seed and that can’t change. Michael Vick will sit along with probably other banged up Philly starters. Dallas will most likely start Stephen McGee at quarterback for Jon Kitna. McGee averaged 5.5yps last week filling in for Kitna. With Philly resting some players, I will lean with Dallas. I would take a harder look at Dallas if Kitna were playing.

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers would favor Philly by 9.5 points and predict about 57 points if starters were playing. PHILADELHIA 21 DALLAS 20

NY JETS -1.5 Buffalo 39.5

Jets will play their starters but for how long is the question. Also, some starters who are banged up may or may not play. The Jets have lost three of four games and the defense hasn’t played terrific as of late so I’m sure Rex Ryan wants to tighten up the defense some. For Buffalo, Ryan Fitzpatrick will be a game time decision, which would mean Brian Brohm would start if Fitzpatrick can’t. The Bills are also hurting at wide receiver as well as injuries have hit them hard the last few weeks.

The Jets qualify in a last game situation, which is 24-3-0. Numbers would favor them by nine points if the starters were playing and predict about 44 points. I will lean with the Jets and if I had a better idea on the starters would even consider playing them at this short number. NY JETS 24 BUFFALO 13

ATLANTA -14 Carolina 41

Atlanta lost at home to NO last week and now needs this win to secure the number one seed in the NFC. Carolina was blown out at Pittsburgh last Thursday, 27-3. They allowed the Steelers to throw for 8.4yps while managing just 1.7yps themselves.

Carolina qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 157-80-6, including 44-15-1 if our team is a double digit dog. They also qualify in a situation that plays against double digit favorites coming off a loss, which is 46-19-0. Both of those situations have done well this year and are 4-1 when the same team applies to both this year. Numbers favor Atlanta by 13.5 points and predict about 41 points. Atlanta has struggled to run the ball lately, averaging just 3.4ypr last week, only 2.6ypr the week before at Seattle and just 3.5ypr the week before that at Carolina in their 31-10 win over Carolina. Carolina actually averaged 7.6ypr in that game, totaling 212 yards but couldn’t throw the ball at all in the game. Not sure I can take Carolina in this game but would never want Atlanta in this type of game. Two years ago, Atlanta needed a last week win over the Rams and were laying 14 points and won 31-27. That Rams team that won only two games, much like Carolina this year. ATLANTA 27 CAROLINA 16

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 Tampa Bay 46.5

Saints are in the playoffs with at least the number five seed. If Atlanta loses, the Saints could secure the number on seed. TB needs the Giants and Packers to lose and a win on their part to make the playoffs.

TB dominated Seattle last week 7.8yppl to 3.3yppl in their 38-15 victory. NO came up big with an upset win at Atlanta on Monday night, 17-14. NO qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 53-16-1. But, TB qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 295-200-22. Numbers favor NO by 7.5 points and predict about 45 points. These two started playing in the same division eight years ago. Since that time, NO has only won three times at home over TB (lost last year in a key game late in the season) and those wins have been by just 3, 3 and 4 points. With that said, TB has lost a lot of key people in the last few weeks, they lost at home to NO earlier this year, 31-6 and are 0-5 with no loss closer than four points against playoff teams (not counting St. Louis or Seattle). I’ll call it a seven point game and let the line decide which way I lean. May be a higher scoring game than normal. NEW ORLEANS 27 TAMPA BAY 20

St Louis -3 SEATTLE 41.5

The Rams defeated SF last week at home 25-17 but were out gained in that game 5.6yppl to 5.1yppl. Seattle was throttled at TB 38-15 and out gained 7.8yppl to 3.3yppl. Matt Hasselbeck left that game after two drives with his team leading 7-0. He averaged 6.0yps on the four passes he threw before leaving with an injury, which was much better than the 3.2yps Charlie Whitehurst averaged.

If St. Louis is favored by 3.5 or more points, they would qualify in a negative last game situation, which is 49-23-1 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Seattle by one point and predict about 44 points but that assumes Hasselbeck plays. He actually threw some passes in practice today and may play. If Whitehurst starts I have to lean to St. Louis. If Hasselbeck starts, I would feel much better about Seattle. Seattle has lost every game this year by at least 15 points. And, they lost at the Rams earlier this year 20-3. Adding to that, the only wins they have had in the last 12 weeks have been over Arizona twice and Carolina once. With that said, they have beaten the average teams at home as they also defeated SF in the first game 31-6. Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-5 SU on the road this year with a three point win over Denver and a 19-6 win over Arizona. The Rams have been much more competitive but that hasn’t added up to wins on the road against a bunch of average to below average teams. But, I need Hasselbeck to play to even consider Seattle. SEATTLE 21 ST LOUIS 20 (with Hasselbeck) ST LOUIS 20 SEATTLE 13 (Without Hasselbeck)

SAN FRANCISCO -6 Arizona 39

I have situations favoring both teams in this game. Numbers favor SF by 7.5 points and predict about 42 points. SAN FRANCISCO 24 ARIZONA 17

San Diego -3.5 DENVER 47

SD was knocked out of the playoffs with their loss at Cincinnati last week. Assuming both teams are playing hard, my numbers favor SD by 11 points and predict about 48 points. Denver’s playing better with Tebow at quarterback but they are still horrible on defense and are hurting there with injuries again this week. SD has injuries of their own on offense but should be able to put some points on the board. SAN DIEGO 31 DENVER 23

Larry Ness

10* Perfect Storm - Steelers -5.5

10* Vegas Insider GOY - Seahawks +3

9* Division GOM - Packers

9* Daytime Dominator - Rice

David Malinsky

6* Chargers
5* Giants
4* Steelers

Scott Spreitzer

Blowout Game of the Month

I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday afternoon. I had the Bears in their week-3 MNF tilt with Green Bay and we cashed the ticket. But the game was more of a Packer meltdown than it was a great performance by Chicago. In fact, if you'll recall, Jay Cutler fired at least three or four incompletions that could easily have gone for interceptions. But none of that really matters now. Chicago has won the division and know they'll be playing in a couple of weeks. If the Buccs beat the Saints and the Falcons lose to the Panthers, the Bears would be the NFC's top seed. Whatever happens, Chicago will know their fate when this one kicks off because both of the teams they're intereted in kick off at 1 PM ET, while the Bears/Packers get underway at 4:15 PM ET. We very well could have a situation where the Bears are resting key players, while the Packers are playing their regulars for their playoff lives. If Green Bay wins, they're in the playoffs. It's as simple as that. A loss means they need some help. Green Bay allows just 15.8 ppg, which ranks 2nd in the league. They have 22 INTs on the season, rank 5th against the pass and have 41 sacks. Whether the Chicago offensive regulars play or not, I expect the sometimes sluggish Bears' offense to struggle throughout. I had Green Bay on these pages last week and we watched them slice through the Giants' defense. The 5th ranked passing offense should have little trouble against Chicago with four receivers presenting nightmare matchup situations. Greg Jennings looked impossible to cover last week and the offensive line has looked like a brick wall protecting Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay averages over 33 ppg at home this season, with four wins coming by double-digits. This presents a problem for Chicago whether the starters play or not. The Bears are on a 0-6 ATS slide against in road games against teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play. They're just 2-11 ATS on the road against teams that average at least 7.5 passing yards per attempt. Meanwhile the Packers are on a 12-3 ATS run in the second half of the season going back to last year. It's a mismatch. I'm laying the points with the Packers on Sunday.

DOUBLE DRAGON

BUCCANEERS +8
BUCS / SAINTS OVER 47
STEELERS -5.5
CHIEFS -3 (-120)
PACKERS -9
CHARGERS / BRONCOS OVER 47
RAMS -3

Anthony Redd

100 Dime Houston Texans
25 Dime 1st Half Houston Texans
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25 Dime 1st Half St. Louis Rams

Maddux Sports

20 Units Houston -3
10 Units Kansas City -3
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10 Units Baltimore -9.5
10 Units Denver +3.5

Stephen Nover

100 Dime SD Chargers

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Bob Balfe

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