Dr Bob
2* Steelers
Ben Burns
10* Rivalry GOY - Packers
10* Main Event - Steelers
10* TOW - Jets / Steelers Under
Dave Malinsky
6* Steelers
4* Packers/Bears Under
Joseph D'Amico
Packers vs. Bears
Play: Under 43
This meeting sees two very good, very hungry teams that have arguably the oldest rivalry in professional football. They met twice this year with combined scores of 37 and 13 points. As a matter of fact, the UNDER has come in their L6 matchups. Green Bay has the 2nd ranked defense allowing a mere 15.0 PPG and just 309.1 total YPG. Chicago possesses the #4 “D”, yielding just 17.9 PPG and a lowly 90.1 YPG on the ground. The fact that these squads play one another twice a year, tells me that they know each other well. Both coaches have prepared their squads well over the last month. Green Bay has won 4 straight, holding their L4 foes to 14.2 PPG while Chicago gave up some points in the 4th quarter LW to Seattle only after the game was out of reach. Both teams will have trouble establishing the run. The unforgiving weather on game day at Soldier Field is forecasted to be very cold and cloudy I expect Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews to be a huge part of this contest. The UNDER is 5-1 the L6 meetings in Chicago, 6-0 the L6 meetings overall, 5-0 in the Packers L5 as a road favorite and 61-30-2 in the Bears L93 as a ‘dog. Take the UNDER. Thank you.
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BET
3% PITTSBURGH -3.5
PITTSBURGH -3.5 NY Jets 38
Jets pulled off the big win at NE last week 28-21 and there was nothing fluky about their win. They out rushed NE 4.1ypr to 4.0ypr, out passed them 7.8yps to 5.2yps, which was shocking and out gained NE overall 5.8yppl to 4.8ypppl. When you consider NE threw the ball 25 more times than the Jets, those overall numbers aren’t even that close. Pittsburgh escaped with a 31-24 victory over Baltimore and held Baltimore to 1.9ypr, 2.6yps and 2.4yppl. Pittsburgh only averaged 2.3ypr, 5.1yps and 3.8yppl but those numbers were better than Baltimore. Because of turnovers, both teams scored 17 points on drives or turnovers from 25 yards or less. Take away those drives and the score is closer to 14-7.
The Jets average 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Pittsburgh averages 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl.
Steelers apply to the better defensive system listed above, which is 51-26-1. My numbers favor Pittsburgh by 7.5 points and predict about 37 points. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Jets won 22-17. But, Troy Polamalu did not play in that game or did Heath Miller on offense. The Jets returned the opening kick off for a touchdown and also got a safety to give them nine additional points in that game. For Pittsburgh, who had injury problems on the offensive line last week, they should get back Flozell Adams and Jonathan Scott this week. Pittsburgh also is playing only their third game in 31 days so an aging defense is well rested and that showed last week against Baltimore by holding the Ravens to just 2.4yppl. In the first game Pittsburgh out gained the Jets 5.2yppl to 4.8yppl so they can play with them. The Jets have played close games on the road against playoff teams this year and, of course, already defeated Pittsburgh here. But, their win last week against NE and even the week before against Indy, came against defenses, which are much worse than Pittsburgh’s. Pittsburgh has the better offense, especially in the passing game and the better defense. They are certainly not as good in the special teams and if the Jets are allowed to operate on a short field again, they could very well win this game. But, the situation along with the strong value on Pittsburgh makes this a play. I would lean under in this game but know the Jets games have totaled at least 39 points in nine of 10 road games this year. PITTSBURGH 23 NY JETS 14
Green Bay -3.5 CHICAGO 43.5
Packers blew out Atlanta 48-21 and showed similar stat domination as they did in the first meeting but were able to turn the stats into points this time. They held Atlanta to 3.2ypr, 4.4yps and 4.0yppl. Meanwhile, GB only rushed for 3.1ypr but were able to get in 31 attempts, which is most important to Mike McCarthy. They gained a whopping 9.1yps and 6.4yppl. Chicago had no problem with Seattle in their 35-24 win in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. The Bears rushed for 176 yards and 3.9ypr while holding Seattle to 2.8ypr. They threw for 8.2yps and held Seattle to 5.0yps and overall gained 5.7yppl to 4.6yppl for Seattle. Those yppl numbers were only that close because Seattle threw the ball 16 more times, while Chicago ran the ball 33 more times than Seattle.
GB averages 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. Chicago averages 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.1yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl.
Green Bay applies to the defensive system listed above, which is 51-26-1. My numbers are still showing GB is undervalued in the playoffs as they predict GB by 4.5 points and predict about 36 points. Similar to the Jets/Steelers game, GB has the better offense, the defenses are similar and Chicago has the much better special teams. In the first game played early in the year here in Chicago, GB dominated that game from the line of scrimmage, out gaining the Bears 6.3yppl to 5.8yppl. But, GB also had Jermichael Finley in that game. It was 18 penalties, turnovers and special teams that did the Packers in. The Bears scored seven points on a punt return, set up another touchdown on a 44 yard drive because of another great punt return and scored their other six points due to penalties. Those other two drives went 67 yards (30 on penalties) and 45 yards (24 on penalties). I highly doubt the penalties happen again as the Packers have drastically cut down on their penalties in the second half of the season. In the last game of the season, GB won 10-3 and out gained the Bears 5.4ypl to 3.5yppl. They out passed Chicago 7.5yps to 2.6yps. This game is trickier because the Bears do bring a good defense and the special teams but the Packers still have value, the situation and are so hot on offense right now, that I have to lean their way. They have the type of game breaking players on this team playing at such a high level right now, it’s hard to see them losing this game. Remember, the Packers don’t give up points on the road having not allowed more than 20 points in 8 of 10 road games. The two games that went over were last weeks game (21 points) but seven came on a kick off return and 31 points at NE (seven came on an interception return and another seven came on a kick off return by an offensive lineman to the four yard line). The Bears have only played three games at home this year that have totaled more than 43 points. They totaled 59 last week but the game got out of control in the end because of the lopsided score. They totaled 57 against Philadelphia but Philly had defensive injuries in that game and they totaled 72 against the Jets but 28 of their 38 points were drives that started inside Jets territory. Special teams could create that opportunity again but if it doesn’t I don’t see Chicago driving the ball down field to score a lot of points in this game. Combine that with 7 of 10 Packer road games that have totaled less than 43 points and this game could go under the total points. I’ll avoid the under unless this total shoots back up to 44 or higher, which I don’t see happening. GREEN BAY 21 CHICAGO 16
DOUBLE DRAGON
HYDRA - PACKERS -3 (-120)
TOP - STEELERS -3 (-125)
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket: NY Jets
Matt Fargo
10* Bears
10* Jets / Steelers Under
9* Steelers
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Code Blue - Chicago Bears +3.5
Wayne Root
No Limit - Bears
Billionaire - Steelers
The Boooj
100 Units Packers -3.5
50 Units Jets +3.5
25 Units Packers / Bears Over 42.5
BIG AL
High Roller - Steelers
Although both teams are playing for the right to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLV, the Jets, in a sense, had their Super Bowl last week when they upset the heavily favored Patriots. New England, of course, is New York's hated rival and, after a week of trash talking and then backing it up with superb defensive play it would be hard to replicate that feat against the not-hated-so-much Steelers. Last week, New York was a 9.5-point dog vs. New England, but since 1980, NFL single digit dogs, off upset wins as dogs of more than 6 points, are 18.7 ATS in the playoffs on the road if they're matched up against a foe which is not off an upset win. We saw this happen last year when the Jets lost to the Colts 30-17 as 7.5-point underdogs, after upsetting the Chargers 17-14 as 8.5-point underdogs the previous week. Also, when these two teams met in December (a game won by New York 22-17), the Steelers were without not only defensive wunderkind Troy Polamalu, but also tight end Heath Miller. That won't be the case here on Sunday. It also must be noted that the Jets were locked into several strong situations in that game, as they were coming off back to back embarassing losses to New England (45-3) and Miami (10-6), while the Steelers were off four straight wins. After a week of hearing that they couldn't win in Pittsburgh, the team buckled down and put forth a great effort. Still, New York was outgained by over 100 yards by Pitt, and the Steelers racked up 147 yards on the ground the most given up by New York this season. And if that happens again today, New York will be hardpressed to win. Take the Steelers.
Anthony Redd
30 Dime Wisconsin Green Bay
30 Dime Illinois State
30 Dime NY Jets/ Pittsburgh Under
Steve Budin
25 Dime Packers
Al DeMarco
20 Dime Steelers
Chuck O'Brien
40 Dime Bears
20 Dime Packers/Bears Under
15 Dime Teaser Bears & Under
Joel Tyson
40 Dime Jets
10 Dime Bears
Trace Adams
1500♦ Bears
500♦ Jets
Derek Mancini
20 Dime Jets
EZ Winners
3* Green Bay
3* Pittsburgh