Marc Lawrence
4 Units Steelers
3 Units Bears
3 Units Nuggets
Ben Burns
10* Rivalry GOY - Packers
10* Main Event - Steelers
10* TOW - Jets / Steelers Under
10* Edmonton Under 5.5
10* Denver Over 215.5
9* Buffalo Sabres
8* Wisconsin Under 132
8* Canisius 5.5
Kelso
100 Units Pittsburgh
5 Units Chicago
50 Units Evansville
Mike Lineback
4* Teaser - Bears & Jets
Larry Ness
27 Club - Steelers
Las Vegas Insider Playoff GOY - Chicago
No. 1 Champ Game Total - NY/Pitt over
Don Wallace Sports
3* Denver -8.5
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket: NY Jets
Iona
Dr Bob
2* St. Peter’s (- 5½) over Manhattan
Manhattan is just 3-16 straight up and St. Peter’s is 7-0 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage of less than .333 the last 3 seasons, including a 66-49 win as a 10 point home favorite over Manhattan earlier this season. Manhattan is already 0-5 ATS in conference home games this season and the Jaspers apply to a negative 19-58-2 ATS situation today. My ratings favor St. Peter’s by 6 ½ points and I’ll take St. Peter’s in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.
Northcoast
3'* Packers/Bears Under
King Creole
4* Jets/Steelers Over
2* Packers/Bears Under
Psychic Sports
Wise Guy - NY Jets +3.5
Jeff Benton
60 Dime Chicago
15 Dime Chicago ML
Let’s start with an indisputable fact: Anyone who bets the Green Bay Packers today is a freaking sucker and admitting to the entire world that he doesn’t given a crap about line value. Because let me tell you, there is absolutely NO value on Green Bay today – and I mean NONE!
How can I make such an emphatic statement? Well, follow along here:
Two weeks ago, the Packers opened up as a three-point road underdog at Philadelphia and the line was quickly bet down to 2½. Then on game day, it dropped to 2 … then 1½ … and by kickoff, some places had the game as a pick-em. Long story short, the books could not do anything to attract Eagles money, and when Green Bay jumped out to a 14-0 lead and prevailed 21-16, every bookmaker from Vegas to Costa Rica to the guy on the street corner got clobbered.
So last week, the oddsmakers didn’t fool around with the Packers-Falcons line, opening it at Falcons minus-2½ – failing to even give Atlanta (the NFC’s #1 seed and a 14-2 team that had defaated Green Bay at home just a month prior) the token three points for home field advantage. What happened? Packers money poured in again and the line plummeted and plummeted and plummeted and by the time the game kicked off, Green Bay was a one-point road favorite in some spots. You know what happened, of course, as Aaron Rodgers had one of the best quarterbacking performances in NFL playoff history and the Packers rolled 48-21.
And again, the public and wise guys collectively robbed the sports books blind, which brings us to this NFC Championship Game and this incredible pointspread: Knowing that the Packers were going to continue to attract money, Vegas installed Green Bay as a three-point road favorite. Nope, not good enough, as the betting public continued to back the Packers. And thus the number moved to 3½ and is now poised to jump to 4.
Think about that: Green Bay, the #6 seed and playing its third straight road game, is laying more than a field goal … against a #2 seed … that’s 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS (4-0 ATS last four) since its bye week … that also happens to be a divisional rival … that also happens to have defeated Green Bay on this very same field this season.
Are you freaking KIDDING me?
Look, I know the Packers have looked terrific in the first two rounds of these playoffs, and I mean that on both sides of the ball. I also know that the Bears are still a bit of an unknlown quantity simply because last week’s 35-24 win came against the 8-9 (now 8-10) Seattle Seahawks. I understand that it’s tough to gauge what Chicago got out of that win, and certainly, the Packers will provide a stiffer challenge to the Bears than Seattle. Still, we’re talking about a team that’s now 12-5 on the season going from a 10-point home favorite to a 3½-point home underdog in the span of seven days – and not because of some key injury or something.
Guys, this isn’t the ACC or the WAC in college football where you see major line fluctuations from week to week. This is the NFL, and to think a playoff team that won its division and earned a first-round bye can be a 10-point home favorite one week and a 3½-point ‘dog the next, it’s simply unheard of.
Again, I repeat, Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 games, including wins over the Eagles and Jets at home. Now, did one of the two losses come at Green Bay in Week 17? Yes it did (the other was an ugly 36-7 home loss to New England, but I digress). However, did that game mean ANYTHING to the Bears, who had already locked in their playoff seeding and first-round bye the previous week? Hell no. Yet despite having nothing for which to play, Chicago went to Green Bay and scared the living hell out of the Packers before falling 10-3 as an 11-point road underdog. And when I say “scared the living hell out of the Packers,” you may not remember that had Green Bay lost that game, it would’ve missed the playoffs entirely! (By the way, it was a 3-3 contest going into the fourth quarter.)
So in the span of three weeks, the Packers have gone from coming within a whisker of postseason elimination to a sizeable road favorite against a 12-5 division rival against whom the Packers scored a total of 27 points in two meetings this year. Guys, I simply cannot stress enough to how mind-boggling this is!
Listen, I know the critics have been scoffing at the Bears all season long, tabbing them a big ol’ fraud. And yet all they do is keep winning, thanks to much steadier play from QB Jay Cutler (he’s finally wised up and stopped making boneheaded mislakes that lead to crucial turnovers), much smarter play-calling from offensive coordinator Mike Martz (he’s helped rein in Cutler by utilizing the running game more) and one of the league’s best (and most underrated) defenses that gives up just 18.2 points, 312.1 total yards and 86.8 rushing yards per game (the Packers allow 109 rushing ypg).
It’s a defense that has given Rodgers and the explosive Packers fits, as evidenced by Green Bay’s point totals in the last five meetings: 17, 21, 21, 17 and 10.
Two final points to make here: 1) Special teams often goes overlooked in football, but it’s going to be a HUGE deal in this game, as Chicago (think Devin Hester) has a massive edge in this department (the Packers are terrible on punt and kick coverage – as they showed last week in Atlanta when they gave up a kick return for a TD – and they’re also not at all explosive when receiving kicks); and 2) With the Packers coming off consecutive spread-covers, it’s important to note that only once this year did Green Bay cash in at least three games in a row. That’s when it had a four-game SU and ATS run from late October to mid-November. But two of those four covers came at home, and three of those games were against non-playoff teams (Dallas with no Tony Romo, and two wins over the Vikings, a team Chicago swept by scores of 23-13 and 40-14).
Bottom line, guys: The Bears are not getting their just due here – and to be honest, I understand why. I totally understand why this pointspread is what it is: Bookmakers are tired of paying out Packers money and so they’ve set a phony line. Well, they won’t have to worry about paying Packer backers this weekend, because just like five years ago – when the Rex Grossman-led Bears pounded the upstart, everybody-is-in-love-with-them Saints 39-14 as just a 2½-point home favorite to reach the Super Bowl – Chicago is winning this game OUTRIGHT!
OC Dooley
2 Units Wisconsin / Northwestern Over 130.5
Considering that Wisconsin is one of only a pair of schools nationally whose defense has yet to allow an opponent to reach the 70-point plateau, this is a rather high posted total and I for one am following the oddsmakers lead. These two schools have very high scoring forwards Jon Leuer and John Shurna who actually roomed together during the summer on a United States National team. Last Saturday Leuer lit up the scoreboard with 26 points and is averaging 19 points per game for Wisconsin. During non-conference play Shurma of Northwestern was ranked among the nation’s top-10 scorers and top pair in “three point” long range shooting. Injuries initially slowed down Shurma in league play but back on Tuesday he regained his touch with 24 points (4-for-7 from behind the arc). Northwestern senior point guard Michael Thompson just last week became the school’s all time “assists” leader (454) and has moved up to #9 on the all-time scoring list (1,377). Getting back to Wisconsin center Keaton Narkivil is hitting 59% of his shot attempts in ROAD games, including an incredible 61% from “three point” territory which is almost unheard of for a big man. Wisconsin is 7-1 OVER the total the past this after hitting at least 78+% from the free-throw line in the prior outing. In the same exact situation where they hit at least 78% of their free-throws, Northwestern is 9-2 OVER the spot in a two-year span
Teddy June
Northwestern +2
NSA
20* NY Jets +4
20* Green Bay -3
20* West Virginia -13
10* Wisconsin -2
10* Wisconsin Green Bay +9
10* Green Bay / Chicago Under 43
10* NY Jets / Pittsburgh Under 38