DAVID MALINSKY
4* INDIANAPOLIS/NY JETS UNDER
Here is what we saw in the AFC Playoffs last week the Jets came out with a conservative plan to hang in the game at San Diego, hoping to keep it close enough to make a few plays to win as the afternoon progressed. Meanwhile the Colts played a methodical game against an opponent that lacked offensive punch, focusing more on avoiding mistakes that could give points away than attacking, and forcing the opposition to have to execute their way down the field to score. It ultimately led to a pair of easy Unders, with neither game coming within 11 points of the Total.
Here is what we are going to see in the AFC Playoffs this week the same thing. Rex Ryan gutted out that win at San Diego by doing what he had to do run the football and rely on his defense. 39 of the 63 snaps were running plays, and there were only two first-down passes the entire game. They produced precious little, with only 14 first downs and 262 yards, but a key interception set up a short field for a TD early in the 4th quarter, and then Shonn Greene broke that 53-yard TD run midway through the final stanza. Take away that burst from Greene and the offense generated an anemic 3.4 yards per snap. And that was after only coming up with 15 first downs at Cincinnati the prior week, when 41 of 56 snaps were running plays. It is partially a tribute to conservative play, but also the blunt fact that the passing game was 31st in the NFL in yardage this season, and with rookie QB Mark Sanchez having far more INTs than TD passes they simply can not rely on that part of their arsenal to make plays. If anything the focus here is even more devoted to slowing the tempo,running the football, and reducing the game to as few possessions as possible. We always like to look to an Under when a quality underdog brings that kind of game plan. What is even better is when the favorite does not mind that same flow, and will go out of their way to take the air out of the ball with a lead in the second half. That is the Indianapolis way, and in Peyton Manning the Colts may have the best clock manager with a lead that the NFL has ever produced. While the defense was indeed solid in last weeks win over Baltimore, helping their cause was the fact that the clock management of the offense limited the Ravens to just 55 offensive snaps, making it even more difficult for Joe Flacco & Co. to ever find a rhythm.
Clinching this for us is that the Colts do not necessarily get to a lead all that easily anyway for as much as we respect the work of Manning this season, the bottom line is that this offense drew a most favorable schedule, only having two games all season against teams that finished in the leagues Top 190 in Total Defense. The running game never developed, and outside of Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark the receiving corps lacks playmakers. Given the way that Darrelle Revis can shadow Wayne, and with the Jets among the NFLs best at defending TEs this season, Mannings best options are taken away.That turns this into a battle for field position from the Colts as well instead of going on the attack against those New York blitzes look for the focus to be on ball security, forcing the Jet offense to make plays to earn their points. It adds up to pace and efficiency levels that make points very hard to come by, and the risk of turnovers creating easy scores is low, since avoiding those mistakes will be a big part of the conservative game plans.
Pointwise Phone Service
3* MINNY/NO UNDER , JETS/INDY UNDER
2* INDY, NO
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket Saints
Jets
Ben Burns
10* Saints
7* Colts
Nick Parsons
10* Saints
7* Colts
Don Wallace Sports
New Orleans -3.5 over Minnesota
The Prez
8* Jets/Colts Under
Marc Lawrence
Vikings
AL DEMARCO
15 Dime Saints
SIXTH SENSE
3% MINNESOTA/NEW ORLEANS OVER 53
INDIANAPOLIS -8 NY Jets 39.5
Colts got the easy win over Baltimore last week but the final stats don’t show quite as dominating of a victory. Indianapolis was out gained in the game 4.9yppl to 3.9yppl. If you take away some of the stats over the last 10 minutes of the game when it was pretty much decided, you would still get about a 4.5yppl to 4.3yppl advantage for Baltimore. A minus three in turnovers helped do the Ravens in. Meanwhile, the Jets went into SD and won the game despite also being out gained badly. SD out gained the Jets 5.7yppl to 4.2yppl. Not that you can discount big plays but take away the 53 yard touchdown run by Greene and the Jets averaged just 3.4yppl.
The Jets average about 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl but allow just 4.8yps against 6.2yps and 4.3yppl against 5.4yppl. The Colts defense is very tough as well, allowing just 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They also average 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Stats reflect games through week 16 as Indy pulled starters and Jets faced Cincy in a somewhat meaningless game for Cincy.
The Jets bring the better defense in this game (defined by fewer points per game allowed) and that qualifies them in a conference championship game situation, which is 50-25-1 ATS. Indianapolis qualifies in playoff situations, which are 43-11 and 42-15-4. Numbers favor Indy by 7.5 points and predict about 40 points.
The Jets have played three games on the road this year against better than average scoring teams. They lost by 14 and 17 points at NO and NE. Of course, they won last week at SD, although they were beaten in the stats department. In the NO game the Jets were out gained 5.4yppl to 4.2yppl. A minus three in turnover margin did them in, including two turnovers that resulted in two touchdowns. In NE, they were out gained but not as bad, at 5.3yppl to 4.6yppl but again a negative turnover ratio did them in. This time it was a -4 in turnover margin. I ignored the game against Indy because the Colts pulled their starters in the third quarter but they were trailing in that game at the time and had given up a decent yards per pass to Manning when he left.
The Colts haven’t played a lot of tough defensive teams this year. They have faced the Ravens twice, San Francisco, Denver and the Jets (again I’ll ignore that game). In those games, they won by 4, 2, 12 and 17 for an average victory of almost nine points. But, more importantly, those games totaled 32, 32, 44 and 23.
The situations go both ways and the value appears to be about right in this game for both the side and total. I will call it a seven point victory and let the line decide which way I lean. I also prefer the under based on the sample of games listed above. INDIANAPOLIS 20 NY JETS 13
NEW ORLEANS -3.5 Minnesota 53
Vikings rolled over Dallas last week 34-3 and dominated in the stats as well. They out gained Dallas 5.4yppl to 3.8yppl. NO made easy work of Arizona last week in their 45-14 route over the Cardinals. For the game, Arizona out gained NO 6.9yppl to 6.3yppl. At halftime, with NO leading 35-14, NO was averaging 8.3yppl and Arizona was averaging over 9.0 yards per play.
Minnesota has been average running the ball this year but they do average 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The defense has been above average against the rush but allowing 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. The Saints offense leads the league, averaging 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.9yps against 6.3yps and 6.4yppl against 5.4yppl. But, the defense allows 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and 6.2yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl.
Minnesota brings the better defense and in the conference championship games, the better defense is now 50-25-1 ATS. Numbers, however, favor NO by 6.5 points and predict about 62 points.
Minnesota has struggled on the road this year, especially as of late. They lost four of their last five games on the road, including their last three games to much lesser competition than NO – (Arizona, Carolina and Chicago). In those last five road games, they have allowed 27, 26, 30, 26 and 36 for an average of 29 points per game. None of those teams come close to the offense of NO, with the exception of GB, who wasn’t nearly as good at the time they played as they were at the end of the year. The Vikings should be able to score points in this game. While they struggled in some of those games, many of those defenses were better than what they will see on Sunday. Against below average defenses on the road this year Minnesota scored 34, 27, 38 and 17 for an average of 29 points.
NO has been tough at home this year. They defeated the Jets by 14, NE by 21 and lost by 7 to the Cowboys. Against good offenses at home this year, NO allowed 27, 27, 17, 24 and 14 points for an average of 22 points per game. Against average defenses, NO scored 48, 35, 30, 38, 17 and 45 points for an average of 36 points.
Given the numbers just listed, that would put the final score around 33-26 in favor of NO, which is close to the 34-28 predicted final using full season stats. When conference championship games have been played with high scoring offenses like these two, they have usually not disappointed, averaging about 52 points.
Minnesota has scored at least 27 points in every road game this year against below average defenses. They’ve also allowed at least 26 points in each of their last five road games. The Saints have scored at least 30 points in five of six home games against average defenses, which Minnesota brings to the table. The Saints have also allowed at least 24 points in three of the five games against above average offenses this year. All of that has the making for a very high scoring game. I find it hard to believe both teams can’t get to at least 24 points in this game. That means we have at least a final score of 27-24 in normal circumstances. And, that would mean the only score that doesn’t put this game over the total would be 27-24 or 28-24. It’s hard to believe one of these teams, if not both, can’t get to 30 points. I’ll lean towards the Saints because of the questionable injury situations on Minnesota’s defense. NEW ORLEANS 37 MINNESOTA 30
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Colts
Billionaire - Minn
RINKPLAY SPORTS
5* Eastern Conference Total of the month
Bruins / Hurricanes Under 5.5
Double Dragon
Colts -7 (-115)
Vikings +3.5 (-115)
KELSO
40 Units Colts (-8½) over Ny Jets
The first issue that must be addressed here is the New York Jets 29-17 win over Indianapolis in Week 16. It has been lost on many that when Indianapolis pulled its starters in the third quarter of this game, which was meaningless for them, they were up 17-10 and dominating the game. They had 17 first downs on their first six drives—two of which were 80 or more yards—and Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning was picking the New York defense apart and had 192 yards pass, with no interceptions. New York, which was playing its guts out in this one because it had to win to keep alive its playoff hopes, did not get into the game until the Colts’ starters were pulled. It is questionable if the Jets can keep up with Indianapolis when it brings its “A” game for 60 minutes. It does not take a genius to figure out what each team plans to do in this one. The Jets are going to try to control the pace of the game with their running attack and keep Manning on the bench. The Colts are going to try to open up an early lead, keep the pedal to the metal, and force New York to beat them with the arm of rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. For the record, Indianapolis comes out firing in every game and has outscored its opponents in the first quarter, 57-20, this season. The figures say Indianapolis has a far better chance of seeing its plans play out than do the Jets. It also is of significance sports books are getting buried under late, and big, money on the Jets, which have been bet out from -7.0 to -8.5.
Tim Trushel
Saints