Frank Patron
40K Saints -3
Underground Sports Connection
100* Jets/Colts Under 39
Trace Adams
2000* - Minnesota Vikings, 500* - Minnesota MONEY LINE PLAY, 500* - NY Jets
Forget the fact the Vikings struggled on the road to end the regular season, NONE of those games were contested in a domed stadium. This one is, and this one is against an opponent they have owned over the years, going 8-1 straight up in the 9 previous meetings.
This one is also being contested in the stadium that Brett Favre won his only Super Bowl in. You kinda feel like the karmic mojo is on the side of the Purple and Gold? I do, and I also feel the Vikings are the better team, thus I am willing to also back them on the MONEY LINE in this game.
I am not going to sit here and spit out against the spread trends, I am just going to tell you that this is the game Adrian Peterson busts free.
Peterson carried it 26 times last week against Dallas, and while he was held to under 100 yards, I loved the way Minny stayed committed to the run. That will pay dividends this weekend, as I don't feel New Orleans has the caliber of defense Dallas does, and I see AD breaking a big one or two for the Norsemen.
That will set up the pass for Favre, and even if Harvin is compromised with his recurring migranes, there is still Rice, Berrian, and Shiancoe there to haul in #4's passes.
As for the Saints win last week over the Cardinals, here is my reality of that apparent "get back on track blowout": Arizona had played the previous week in the late Sunday game. They had to go to overtime at home before dispatching Green Bay. The Arizona defense was shredded which goes to show they just weren't that good at stopping anyone anyway. Then, the Cards had to travel to New Orleans to play a rested Saints team. Not only play them, but play them on Saturday in the early game!
Arizona was just out of gas, and the fact they scored on the 1st play from scrimmage on that long run tells me the Saints are VUNERABLE to the run! I take much more respect from the way Minnesota handled Dallas then I do with the way New Orleans handled Arizona.
Minnesota also rates the edge in the kicking department, as Ryan Longwell is having one of the best season's of his long career. That fact only makes get a field goal or so that much more valauble.
Let it be known that I am taking the points with the Vikings as my 2000♦ play, but I also feel the Vikings will win this game outright, so I am putting another 500♦s down on Minnesota on the MONEY LINE.
When the dust clears, it will be the Vikings playing for all the marbles on February 7th!
2000♦ - Minnesota Vikings plus the points
500♦ - Minnesota Vikings on the Money Line
In the AFC Title Game, I have gone back and forth with this pointspread, and after watching and listening to Peyton Manning in his interviews this week, I am not seeing the same Peyton that I normally see. Something is "askew" me thinks, and I also think that this Jets team is the "buzzsaw' that Jeff Saturday talked about in rehashing the Colts playoff failures of the past.
Indianapolis features no real running game to speak of, and we all know about "Revis Island", so you can forget trying to exploit his side of the field!
I am not going to harken back to the teams regular season meeting, as there were just too many variables going on for me to think that that meeting will be a prelude as to what is going to happen on Sunday, but I will say that I have been against the Flyboys the last 2 weeks, and both times they have proved me wrong.
Can they win outright?
Possibly, but with the points I definitely feel they will be inside of this number.
The pressure is ALL on the Colts, and that New York defense is capable of making life tricky for Manning in this game.
I don't see much more than a field goal or 4 points seperating these teams in this game.
Take the Jets plus the points.
500♦ - New York Jets
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
20 DIMER - NEW YORK JETS
50 DIMER - MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Prediction: Adrian Peterson is the MVP of this game!
I have a strong feeling that last week's 26 carry game in the Vikings 34-3 thumping of a Dallas team that did beat these Saints earlier in the season at the Superdome is going to lead to a monster output from Peterson in this game.
I believe the Dallas defense is by far a better defense than the one New Orleans trots out on the field. You saw the Cardinals go to the house on their 1st play from scrimmage last week, and you will see plenty of holes for Peterson and his backfield mate Chester Taylor to exploit in this game.
Once that run is established, Brett Favre will be free to pick apart the Saints secondary in any way, shape, and form he so desires.
You may say, "hey G-Man, but isn't the same true for Drew Brees and his mates?" I will answer "yes, to a certain extent".
I think the Vikings defense will do what they do best, and that is stop the run, making the pass a little more predictable to cover for the Minny defense. Brees is capable of forcing a throw or two, and you can expect a pick or two in Minnesota's favor in this game.
Don't worry about the Vikings poor regular season close on the road, those games were outdoors, this game is indoors and Minnesota is quite familiar with playing indoors.
Also don't worry about the sudden flash that Reggie Bush showed last week, I can assure you the Vikes will punch him in the mouth early in this game, reverting him back to the "soft" player that he really is!
The points are the way to go in this game, and don't be surprised at all if Minnesota winds up winning this game outright.
Take the Vikes!
20 DIMER - NEW YORK JETS
I have played out this game multiple times, and with what the Jets bring to the table, I don't see them getting blown out in this one.
Indy cannot run the ball effectively, and that will make the job of the #1 Jets defense that much easier - if it can ever be called "easy" against Peyton Manning - for the Flyboys to put the clamps on Manning.
Indy just won't be able to pull away in this game. This game stays close all the way.
I fully expect this one to be decided by no more than a field goal, and after watching New York go into Cincinnati 2 weeks ago and win outright, and after watching New York go out to San Diego last week and face a team that I feel was way more dangerous on offense than Indy is, and win that game too, I have to give the Jets a fighting chance in this game.
Take the points baby!
King Creole
5* VIKINGS / SAINTS OVER
Looks like a SHOOT-OUT is in store in the NFC Championship Game between the Vikings and Saints. Get your action in as soon as possible as there is a VERY good chance this week's line will go UP off the opening number of 52.5 points. After all, NFC Championship games have gone an almost-PERFECT 6-1-1 O/U since the 2001 season. Also, we note that NFC Championship games have gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U since 1991 when the host team is off a SU win of 14 > points (like the SAINTS)... and the OU line is 37 or more points.
One final note in regard to NFC Championship games. Going al the way back to the 1990 season, we note that 'shorter' home favorites of 1 point when the OU Line is 51 or more points (SAINTS). The average total points in these games is a whopping 67.1!
4-1-1 O/U since 2000: All PLAYOFF teams who scored 45 > points in their last game (SAINTS). Home teams are a PERFECT 2-0 O/U.
4-0 O/U since 1999: All PLAYOFF favorites of points (SAINTS). Also, we note that in the Playoffs... when BOTH teams are playing off a Playoff win of 4 TD's or more (like the Saints AND the Vikings), the results are a PERFECT 2-0 O/U since the 1981 season.
3-0 O/U since 1982: All PLAYOFF road teams off a SU division round win in which they allowed 3 or less points (VIKINGS).
4-0 O/U since 1995: All non-Super Bowl PLAYOFF teams who allow MORE than (>) 4.5 yards-per-rush on Defense (SAINTS)... and who are also off a SU Playoff win.
7-0-1 O/U since 1983: All PLAYOFF home favorites of points (SAINTS).
5-0-1 O/U since 2001: All PLAYOFF favorites off a home Playoff "OVER" (SAINTS)... versus an opponent off a home Playoff "UNDER" (VIKINGS).
10-0! O/U since 1983: All PLAYOFF teams who BEAT the Dallas Cowboys in their last Playoff game (VIKINGS).
2-0 O/U: All PLAYOFF games in which a NFC NORTH team (VIKINGS) is facing a NFC South team (SAINTS).... when the game line is 6 or less points.
Ron Raymond
Colts -7.5
When INDIANAPOLIS COLTS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Playing in dome surface - During Week 16 to 20 - Scored 20 points or more FOR in their last game; The Colts are 3-7 ATS in this spot sine '83.
Howie Feiner
1000 Dime: Saints
Brandon Lang
100 DIME SAINTS
75 dime - COLTS
25 DIME - SAINTS FIRST HALF
25 DIME - VIKINGS-SAINTS OVER
After tearing apart these 2 games, I have come to the conclusion the right side to both of these games are the home favorites.
I have quite a few reasons why, many of which I will share below but the bottom line for me is I just can't get by a couple of huge facts involving the Jets and the Vikings.
For the Jets, it's been a good run and believe me I was one of the few people who had them both against Cincinnati and the Chargers but they are running into a whole different beast in Indy today.
It's the Jets offense which will lead to their demise today and not their defense.
As for the Vikings, it's one thing to have one bad road game down the stretch, maybe 2 but to implode 3 straight times on the highway to close out the year to the likes of the Cardinals, Panthers and Bears concerns me.
Especially when you were playing for homefield advantage and especially watching the Packers put up 45 on the Cards while the Vikings struggled to put up just 17.
Fact of the matter is New Orleans and Indy were the best teams in the NFL for the better part of the entire year and they were destined to meet in the Super Bowl, and after today destiny will await them.
Now here is why I will be handicapping the Saints-Colts as my 18th straight super bowl winner.
100 DIME - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - (If 3 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Never get beat by the Hook!) - "Tony Romo has receivers running wide open in this Vikings secondary, he just doesn't have time to get them the ball."
Those were the words of Troy Aikman broadcasting the game for FOX last Sunday after Romo was sacked in the 3rd quarter.
At home, playing in the Superdome, the Saints will now have all those advantages the Vikings benefitted from in their home game last week.
And it's with those benefits Drew Brees will have time to throw and he will hit his receivers who will be wide open running through the Vikings secondary.
The bottom line is the Vikings showed me no consistency on the road this year that leads me to believe the outcome of this game will be any different than their last 3 road games this year.
At Arizona on December 6th they got drilled 30-17 as the Cardinals shredded this "awesome" Vikings defense for 398 yards with Kurt Warner going 22 of 32 for 285 yards. He wasn't sacked.
At Carolina on December 20th, they got dominated 26-7 as the Panthers shredded this "awesome" Vikings defense for 397 yards with Matt Moore going 21 of 33 for 273 yards. He was sacked only twice.
At Chicago on December 30th, the Bears beat the Vikings 36-30 in OT as the Bears shredded the "awesome" Vikings defense for 363 yards with Jay Cutler going 20 of 35 for 258 yards. He was sacked only twice.
Now I don't know about you but when the 12th ranked pass offense in Arizona, the 17th ranked offense in the Bears and the 27th ranked pass offense in the Panthers put up those numbers on you, what is # 1 going to do?
Over their last 5 road games Minnesota gave up 27, 26, 30, 26 and 36 points.
The Vikings have 4 road wins this year but look who they are against: Browns, Lions, Rams, and Packers.
I don't care what Minnesota did last week at home against Dallas, that was at home where as you saw last week, there was a reason they were undefeated at Mall of America Field at the Metrodome.
As you can see, this team has been no bargain whatsoever on the road this year and they are not going to be able to just all of a sudden flick on a switch and play great.
Those 3 road games in December meant everything, meant homefield advantage and for all intense and purposes, a clear path to the Super bowl.
And all 3 times they came up short because this team is just one of those type of teams that just can't play on the road and they came up short versus teams not in the class of this Saints bunch.
As for the New Orleans, they showed me last week they are back and back with a vengeance. They could have put up 60 on the Cardinals if they wanted to but Sean Payton called off the dogs.
All I keep hearing is the fact the Saints can't stop the run and Adrian Peterson is going to have a huge day and the Vikings are just going to roll in here and tear it up.
Maybe they should call Kurt Warner and the Cardinals and ask them what it was like because no offense came into a game hotter than the Cardinals did after putting up 51 at home on the Packers.
I'm talking about a Packers defense ranked # 2 overall in the NFL. They were # 1 against the pass and # 5 against the run and Warner and the Cardinals destroyed them for 51 points.
Against the Saints in the Superdome? Try 14 points, with 7 of those coming on the first play of the game and this New Orleans defense knocked Kurt Warner out of the game.
When you have failed as miserably on the road as this Vikings team has, do you really think they are going to be able to just all of a sudden just turn it on here in arguably the most ridiculous environment any of them has ever seen including Brett Favre?
I say to you again, Matt Moore 21 of 33 for 273. Kurt Warner 22 of 32 for 285. Jay Cutler 20 of 35 for 258.
The Vikings can spend all week saying all the right things to the press about how they like their chances but deep down in places only they talk about, they had a chance for homefield and they blew it with those last 3 road losses.
And they will pay for it again dearly today because it cost them a shot at the Super Bowl by having to play the Saints in the Superdome tonight.
Congrats to the city of New Orleans as they move on to face the Colts in the matchup we all expected back when the Saints were 13-0 and the Colts 14-0.
And it's the game we are going to get.
100 DIME SAINTS
25 DIME - SAINTS FIRST HALF
25 DIME - VIKINGS-SAINTS OVER - I love the Saints in the first half of this game, and I love the Over as wel,l and that is the reason I have come with a 25 dime move on the Saints in the first half and Over the total as well.
New Orleans is going to get at least 34 points in this game and it will begin with a big first half and set the tone for getting over the total as well as the Vikings get down early and are forced to abandon their running game.
At that point it will be the old gun slinger letting it fly and the game will find it's way Over the total.
Note the last 4 meetings between these two have gone over the posted total.
Today they make it 5 in a row.
25 DIME SAINTS FIRST HALF
25 DIME VIKINGS-SAINTS OVER
75 DIME - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - (If 7 1/2, buy the 1/2 and lay 7. Never get beat by the Hook!) - They are flat out just a better team.
In there game 4 weeks ago the Colts played their # 1 offense for 6 possessions against this Jets # 1 defense playing for their season.
When Peyton Manning walked off the field with 10:20 to go in the 3rd quarter, his work for the day done, he was 14 for 21 good for 192 yards, 16 first downs and 254 yards of total offense.
The Colts offense under his guidance picked up 16 first downs, put up 15 points but it could have been a lot more.
They had first and goal at the 4, and he missed Reggie Wayne for the TD and he missed Dallas Clark deep inside the 10 on another possession.
All told, the first possession of the game ended with a failed 3rd and 2 at midfield, the 2nd was an 8 play drive covering 54 yards ending with an Addai 21 yard touchdown run.
The 3rd possession resulted in a 10 play drive covering 86 yards and resulted in a field goal after failing to punch it in from first and goal at the 4, the 3rd down play in which he missed an open Wayne.
The 4th drive ended with a failed 3rd and 3 at the Jets 49, just missing Clark down at the Jets 15 while the 5th drive ended stalled at the Jets 44.
The 5th drive stalled at the Jets 44 yard line and the 6th drive was the Colts first drive of the 2nd half after the Jets ran the 2nd half kickoff for a touchdown and what did Manning do on his last drive of the game?
He only went 81 yards on 9 plays for the touchdown and promptly called it a day, although if you saw his body language, he wanted one more drive.
You see, the Colts offense is going to get theirs and there is nothing Rex Ryan and this Jets defense is going to do about it.
The match up of this game is the Jets offense against this Colts defense.
What if I told you the Colts defense played that game 4 weeks ago with 4 starters out. They didn't even field their #1 unit and what did the Jets produce in the first half?
Well, first possession 3 and out punt, 2nd possession 2 first downs and punt, 3rd possession 3 and out, 4th possession 5 first downs field goal and the 5th they ran out the first half clock.
Here is where it's get's more interesting.
In the 2nd half when the Jets starters are now facing even less starters on the Colts defense, their 6th possession is 2 first downs and punt while their 7th is 1 first down and punt.
It was only after the Curtis Painter fumble return for a touchdown and the Jets took the lead did they risk anything offensively and they put together one touchdown drive in the 4th quarter.
People, the defense we all saw shut down the Ravens last Saturday night is the defense the Jets better worry about and just like the Ravens, who couldn't run it in the first half when it counted, the Jets will face the same issues.
Because of the Colts offense and the success I guarantee they have in scoring at least 27 points in this game, Mark Sanchez is going to have to win this game, not just manage it.
There is no doubt in my mind the Jets at some point in this game will be down 2 scores and now let's see how the Jets decided to proceed. They will have to open up their offense which will lead to turnovers, just like Sanchez has been known for.
Indy can play defense, better than people are giving them credit for and you saw it last week versus Baltimore and you will see it this week again.
To a man the Colts defense is tired of hearing about the Jets defense this and the Jets defense that when to a man, they feel completely disrespected.
They will get their respect today.
Time to jump off the Jets gravy train that was so good to me the last 2 weeks against the Bengals and the Chargers because the Colts will be just too good for this Jets team today.
When the Saints and Colts were both 13-0, I knew right then we were destined to have them meet in the Super Bowl.
Destiny happens today.
75 dime - COLTS
FREE SELECTION - NY JETS-INDIANAPOLIS OVER
MustWinSports
5 DIME TEASER MINNESOTA & MINNESOTA/NEW ORLEANS OVER
TRACE ADAMS
2000♦ Minnesota
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
3* Indianapolis
3* Minnesota
2* Colts/Jets Under
2* Vikings/Saints Over
ANTHONY REDD
20-Dime - Iowa
10-Dime - Pittsburgh
The Duke's Sports
Georgia Tech (+3') for 2 Units
The dog in this series controls a blistering 15-3 ATS edge and we'll stay on that trend here. Fla State knocked off GT in OT in Georgia back on December 20th; today, we'll look for the Yellow Jackets to return the favor. Tech controls a 6-1 ATS mark as a dog, 4-1 ATS as a road dog, and 6-2 ATS vs a team with a winning home record. FSU controls a money burning 7-18 ATS mark as a home favorite and just 3-9 ATS mark as a home favorite in this spread range. With the road team covering five straight in this series, we'll look for the sixth straight to be a charm.
ATS LOCK
5 Units Indianapolis -8
3 Units NO/Minn Over 53.5
KELSO
25 Units Creighton -4.5 v. Missouri State
5 Units Indiana - 6 v. Iowa
3 Units Sacramento St +115 @ N Ariz