Inside Info
3* Saints
Joe D
20* Saints
Lt Profits
3* Saints Under
Preferred Picks
3* Vikings
Score
400 Saints
300 Jets
Pure Lock
Vikings
Wildcat
5* Saints
The Prez
8* Jets/Colts Under
Vikings
Vikings Over
LARRY NESS
8* Seton Hall -2.5 vs Pittsburgh
The Pirates have won two of their last three games and the lone loss during this stretch came on the road. Taking two out of three was no small feat either as the Pirates hosted Cincinnati and Louisville plus visited Georgetown during this three game stretch. Seton Hall’s last 7 games have included match-ups with 4 ranked opponents. While the Pirates did lose those four games, three of the four defeats came by a single digit margin. Now they catch the right ranked team at the right time to not only play them tough, but get over the hump and get into the win column against a ranked foe. The Panthers will have a bit of a ‘hangover’ here after losing at home to Georgetown by eight points on Wednesday. Pittsburgh had been spoiled by success early this season as, despite losing four starters from last season’s team, the Panthers were perfect in conference play before losing to the Hoyas on Wednesday. While Pittsburgh has been struggling from the perimeter on offense the Panthers have also been struggling to defend the perimeter on defense. This has led to their last two foes shooting a combined 45.7% from beyond the arc. Now Pittsburgh has to try and stop Jeremy Hazell of the Pirates who already has 175 attempts from beyond the arc this season. The Pirates are coming off of a win that boosts their momentum as they got by the Cardinals Thursday. Seton Hall shot 53% in that game and has confidence that, at home, their shots will continue to fall. Though they lost 89-78 to Pittsburgh last season, the Panthers current roster accounted for only 32 of those 89 points. The guys that accounted for 57 of the points are gone. The Panthers guards are coming off of a very poor shooting effort against Georgetown and Pittsburgh now has to visit a Seton Hall team that does well when off of a Big East win. Over the last three seasons, the Pirates are 11-6 ATS when off of a win over a conference rival. With Hazell a scoring machine on the perimeter, and Herb Pope dominating inside, look for the Pirates to defend their home floor very well here. Pope is a native of the Pittsburgh area and the Seton Hall forward has been anxious for this game to show the Panthers what they’re missing with him being a Pirate instead. Pope is averaging 12.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game. Hazell and Pope combine for a huge inside-outside combo here and the Panthers suffer ‘unbeaten letdown’ as, after suffering their first Big East loss Wednesday, there will be some carry over to this game Sunday afternoon.
Craig Davis
100 Dime – Vikings-Saints OVER
Well, here it is... my highest rated game of the playoffs thus far... and it happens to be a total. We could guess all day as to whether or not the Saints will beat the Vikings or Brett Favre will pull off more magic and get the upset for his Vikings. No one knows, as both of these teams are more than capable of winning. Why do you think the number is 3 1/2?? Home field advantage. If this game was played at a neutral site, I think it's safe to say the line would be a pick 'em. But that doesn't matter to me today... all I care about is how many points these two offenses score, and I'm saying they both surpass 30 points today. In fact, I'd be surprised if there were a combined 4 punts in this game. These two just don't believe in kicking the ball back to the other team unless it's after they've scored. How many times do you NOT remember the Vikings and Saints going for it on 4th down this year? Shoot, even last week both teams converted a fourth down opportunity.
For the season, the Vikings converted 8 of 12 4th down opportunities while the Saints didn't have as much luck, percentage wise, but did "go for it" 15 times during the regular season (converting 6). What's even more impressive is the fact that both of these teams converted nearly 50% of their 3rd down chances... so it wasn't like 3rd downs were a big deal for either of these teams.
Drew Brees vs. Brett Favre. The student vs. the teacher. Brees led his team to score the most points in the NFL before blasting the Cardinals last week by 31 points. Favre led his team to scoring the second-most points in the NFL this year before leading them to a 31-point win over the Cowboys. Forget defense folks... neither of these teams have much of a defense to speak of regardless of what they did last week. Those who play the under today will point to the fact the Vikings held the prolific Cowboys offense to just three points while the Saints shut down Kurt Warner and company to the tune of 14 points last week.
Honestly, I don't care. I saw those games and you likely did too. First of all, Minnesota's defense only shows up at home. Secondly, Dallas moved the ball very well but missed two field goals, had several costly turnovers that stalled drives. Let's be honest, the 3 points Dallas put on the board was more about the Cowboys ineptness on offense rather than Minnesota's staggering defense. As for the Saints allowing only 14 points to Arizona... well, let's just say once Kurt Warner was "horizontal" that game was over. After an interception, Warner tried to make a tackle but was blind-sided by an oncoming defender and was absolutely laid out. Warner clearly wasn't the same and was eventually replaced by Matt Leinart... and we all know how that goes. I am a firm believer that if those four teams all hooked up again this weekend, the final outcomes would be completely different. I'm not saying the Vikings and Saints wouldn't have won, but the scores would have been different. I'm telling you... the Vikings and Saints don't have good defenses.
And if you're looking at averages, please be smart about it. First, let's look at the Saints. The numbers say they allow just over 20 PPG for the season. However, a closer look at their schedule shows that they allowed a good portion more than 20 points when playing teams that actually have an offense. In their first two games of the year (vs. Detroit and Philly), the Saints allowed a combined 49 points as both scored over 20. They also allowed 27 to the Giants, 34 to the Dolphins, 27 to Atlanta, 23 to the freaking Rams, 30 to the Redskins, 23 to Atlanta, and 24 to Dallas. Oh sure, if you throw in the games against Buffalo and Tampa Bay and the Jets, it's easy to see why the Saints could have "skewed" average numbers. Those teams would struggle to score against high school teams. The Saints give up points and that's all there is to it.
In terms of the Vikings, well, on paper they appear to be even better than the Saints, defensively. But a closer look shows Minnesota actually struggling against teams that rank higher than 16th in overall offense. Anyone can limit the Lions and Bears and Seahawks to 10 points or less... but when the competition stiffened, the Vikings defense folded. How about 31 points to Baltimore AT HOME? What about 36 from the Bears or 26 from the Matt Moore-led Panthers or the 30 from the Cardinals or the 26 and 23 from Green Bay or the 27 from Pittsburgh or 24 from San Francisco?
There is absolutely no doubt these two teams will score in the high-20s tonight as we're still dealing with the top two offenses in the NFL. And please understand I'm not just referring to the last three Vikings road games either... though those do serve a purpose. Minnesota allowed 30, 26 and 36 to Arizona, Carolina and Chicago to end the regular season. They aren't completely 100% healthy right now and will need to substitute multiple times in order to try and slow down this high-powered Brees-led attack. EJ Henderson, the heart and soul of this defense has been out since their 36-30 Monday night loss to Chicago and will be sorely missed today. Ray Edwards isn't 100% and Antoine Winfield hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury. The rest of the secondary, in my opinion, is a joke. Brees should be able to shred this unit with relative ease with a healthy, balanced dose of running (whoever's hot at the moment) and mid-range passing game. For the most part, no one has showed the ability to stop this offense and I see no reason Minnesota gets to them early tonight.
Finally, let's just take a history quiz. How many of the last 10 Saints/Vikings meetings have gone OVER the total? 4? 6? 7? Try 8. Eight of their last 10 meetings have gone over the posted total. In fact, their last meeting took place in Minneapolis in 2008 and resulted in a 30-27 Minnesota win. That game not only went OVER the posted total that day, it would have been good enough to go OVER this number. Other Vikings/Saints scores include 38-31, 32-31, 25-24 and 31-24. All but one of those scores would have gone OVER today's posted total. Simply put, these two teams realize what's on the line today and, unlike the Jets, they have the ability to score on just about anyone. I like both teams to score over 30 points tonight, making it my biggest NFL total of the year.
Teddy Covers
Fairfield
Teddy June
10* NYJ/Ind Under
10* Saints
Steve Duemig
30 Dime - Jets-Colts UNDER
Line opened at a key number of 41 which was very smart from the lines maker standpoint. They KNOW that public will be betting the over in both of these games so they open it up right on the key. Sure enough the sharp money came in as expected on the under and it went all the way down to 39. The whole time however showed the larger percentage of bets were being played on the OVER. Money moves lines not bet percentages. So we had a reverse line move early on the O/U total. Well now we see the number almost back to where it started from and I predict that it will be there come game time. When the game returns to 41 you must follow the sharp money here and play the UNDER. I know it's hard to root for nothing to happen but with the Jets, that's pretty much what you get. The only way this game gets out of hand is to have numerous defensive TDs or special teams returns. The Colts will try to get the lead and then milk the clock. The Jets will do what they always do, run the ball and hope you make a mistake. This makes for a short low scoring game.
10 Dime - Vikings-Saints UNDER
Once again we saw the first move immediately to the under. Most sharp bettors will bet any playoff line in the 50's blindly to the UNDER. My numbers show 50 as the top line number in this game. & TD's is a lot in a conference final when you think about it. Both are very good offensive teams but even they tend to get conservative with a lead and one game to get into the Super Bowl. What usually looks like a shootout is always the opposite. Games like this go over when there are special teams or defensive TD's. We saw a reverse line move in this game big time concerning the O/U. 70% of bets were going to the OVER yet the line moved from the opener of 54 down to 52. That is something that we have played with success all year and we won't stop doing it now. The total is now moving right back to the starting number and I predict with the offensive fire power that these teams have that the public will continue to bet the OVER. It may even go past the original opener which will set up a nice middle possibility for those that played the under early. Wait on this game to get the best possible total to play the UNDER.
5 Dime - Colts
The Conference Championships have always seen one blow out every year. If there was a game to pick this week that would result in a blow out this would be the game. Colts too much offense and a underrated defense. Jets a very good defense and an awful offense that frequently took advantage of short fields to score their TD's. Manning doesn't turn it over and he's not facing tom Brady. We get the dream matchup in the Super Bowl and we don't have to hear any Rex Ryan or Brett Favre stories for the next two weeks. Maybe now I can turn my TV back on. The initial move off the opener ws to the Colts and there has been no buy back. That tells me all I need to know.
5 Dime - Saints
Are you as sick of the Favre hype as I am? If you aren't then you aren't gonna like what we have to say. I can never remember a time when I purposely turned off the TV or turned it to another channel, as I did this week, to avoid listening to all the BS I was going to hear about the old man. That's what he is too, an old man! He has taken this team as far as it can go. No one thought he could get it done against the Cowboys last week, but he and his team did. They did it with the aid of a raucous home crowd and some brain cramps by the Cowboy defense and the QB Romo. Drew Brees is NOT Tony Romo and the Vikings and Favre are NOT at home this week, and there in lies the difference. The Vikings lost 4 games this year and all of them were on the road. There is not a harder top place to play on the road than Nawlins, and there's not a harder QB to play against than Drew Brees.
The Viking secondary is there Achilles heel and Brees will exploit the hell out of it today for enough to win this game easily. They still have to run the ball but Brees has so many weapons, unlike the Cowboys, that he can choose from that will make life difficult for the Vikings D. The Saints will NOT make the same mistake as the Cowboys did last week and try to run the ball inside the tackles like the Boys so unbelievably stupid try to do last week after having success with Jones rushing on the edges. This is where Reggie Bush comes in. He ran with a purpose last week and it was exciting to watch. If he does the same today, the Saints will have a field day. The Cowboys and Romo's decision making were not the best last week but this is now the most accurate QB in the league that the Vikes are going against, who is a good decision maker. I think the Saints and Brees lost focus at the end of the season and that's why they faltered just enough. We saw last week that the focus was back against the Cardinals and they will prove today that their record was not a fluke. The Vikes record was a fluke. They played the easiest schedule of anyone in the NFL. Today the cream will rise to the top. The Saints come marchin in!!!
Ron Meyer
Playbook 15* Indy
Locker Room Minn
Sean Murphy
Saints
Saints Over