BEN BURNS
GOY - TCU
BEN BURNS
10* Seattle Seahawks +4.5
POINTWISE PHONE SERVICE
3* Philly, Tenn, Baltimore, New England
2* Cincinnati, Jacksonville
David Banks
NFL
Indy Colts +8
Jacksonville Jaguars +1
Atlanta Falcons -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles +3
New York Jets -9.5
Under
NBA
9:30 Dallas Mavs +6.5
John Fina
Sunday Night Football Game of the Year!
Bengals
Teddy Covers
Patriots
Bengals
Chiefs
Chargers
Brandon Lang
60 DIME - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - (if 3, you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2. If 2 1/2 you buy up to +3. Just like last week with Ravens line value with the dog) - Live dog today.
The world is in love with the Dallas Cowboys right now, and I really don't know why because if you really breakdown their schedule you will see they really haven't done much.
After beating the Eagles on Monday night 20-16 in Philadelphia they went into Green Bay and lost 17-7.
They came home to struggle against the Redskins getting shutout for 55 minutes before barely winning 7-6. Real proud of that win at home.
The caught the Raiders right back at home on Thanksgiving and beat them 24-7 but trust me the game was a lot closer than that.
Off that win they go to New York and implode against the Giants, a team that allowed Eagles and Panthers both to score over 40 points on them but the Cowboys figure out a way to lose.
They come home to lose to the Chargers 20-17 before they have the one win that I feel is fooling everyone into thinking this is a great football team.
Dallas went into New Orleans and caught a beat up Saints team that in their previous two games struggle horribly to beat the Redskins on the road and the Falcons at home.
Fact of the matter is, the Saints were going down and the Cowboys just happened to be in the right place at the right time. It's as simple as that.
The real Dallas Cowboys, the overrated Dallas Cowboys showed up last week at Washington struggling to win 17-0 against a Redskins defense that was torched 45-12 the week before by the Giants at home.
This year Dallas has faced a top 10 offense 5 times and they are 1-4 SU and ATS and the Philadelphia team they are seeing today is a complete upgrade from the one they held to 16 points November 8th.
I just don't see Donovan McNabb going 16-30 for 227 yards, and 2 INT's this afternoon. I see him tearing apart this Dallas overrated secondary and having a great game outplaying Tony Romo right along with it.
I'm sorry folks but the Eagles are the better team here, and getting points with them is value I can't nor will I pass up.
25 DIME - CLEVELAND BROWNS - Fact of the matter is if David Garrard has a great game against a blitzing defense and beats me today, so be it
My dollar says it's not happening, and it's not happening against a "Ryan" coached defense.
The Jags are done. They have imploded to a degree that has them demoralized, and going on the road playing in Cleveland when you know your season is over is what I call a flat-out "worse case"scenario.
What do the Jags have to get up for? Deep down they know they blew their shot at the playoffs by losing at home to the Dolphins and Indy.
As for Cleveland, this team is flat-out playing inspired football, winning 3 in a row, while covering 6 in a row.
It all started on Monday night in an inspired effort against the Ravens losing 16-0 in a game that was scoreless at the half.
They went to Detroit and lost a heartbreaker 38-37 and then on back-to-back weeks on the road battled division winner Cincinnati to a 16-7 game.
Off that momentum building loss they came home on a Thursday night to beat the Steelers 13-6, followed by a big win at Kansas City 41-34, followed by a dominant beat down of the Raiders 23-9.
The key to this resurgence has been running back Jerome Harrison, and facing a young Jags team all the motivation in the world is with the home team that finishes the season strong.
25 DIME - TENNESSEE TITANS - This is all about the Titans and Chris Johnson getting 2,000 yards today, and being the more motivated team ready to go to war for 60 full minutes.
And the bottom line is it couldn't come against an easier team at the right time than the Seattle Seahawks.
This Seattle team is in full implosion mode, and I mean FULL implosion mode.
I mean seriously folks, if the 1 win Tampa Bay Buccaneers can come into your house a couple of weeks ago and beat you 24-7, what are the Titans going to do trying to make history with a 2,000 yard rusher?
I'm talking about a Titans team that in the last 9 weeks has lost to only Indy and San Diego, two teams with a combined record of 26-4.
Let me make this a little easier for you.
Every single Seattle loss this year has been by double digits with exception of week 3 at home to the Bears, in a game they lost by 6.
Other than that, they have lost by 13 at San Francisco, 17 at Indy, 24 at home to Arizona, 21 at Dallas, 11 at Arizona, 26 at Minnesota, 27 at Houston, 17 at home to Tampa Bay and 38 at Green Bay.
I'm sorry folks but when you are an NFL team and you lost your last 3 games by 27, 17 and 38, I don't care where you are playing, you aren't getting motivated for the last game of the year.
I don't see them competing for 60 minutes in this game and facing Johnson going for 2,000 yards, well let's just say one second of failed concentration and he is gone.
I will gladly lay this number and call for the Seahawks to lose yet another game by double digits this year which in this case, gives us the cover.
FREE SELECTION - NY JETS
INSIDE CORNER
2 units Jax/Clev Under 38
2 units GBay +3.5
1 unit Dallas -3
WAYNE ROOT
Vegas Legend - Cleveland
Millionaires Club - New York Jets
Billionaires Club - Miami
No Limit - Dallas Cowboys
Perfect Play - Oakland
DR BOB
MIAMI 25 Pittsburgh (-3.0) 22
Over/Under Total: 45.0
Miami is still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, but most people see the Dolphins as out while they know Pittsburgh must win this game. That could be why the line is off in this game. Miami is actually slightly better than an average team, as they've faced a schedule that is 2.8 points tougher than average and have been out-gained by just 3.4 yards per game and out-scored by 1.6 points (making them 1.2 points better than average based on compensated points). Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has out-scored their opponents by 2.5 points per game while playing a schedule that is 1.1 points easier than average, which would make the Steelers 1.4 points better than average on a simple compensated points basis. Based on compensated points ratings (Pittsburgh just 0.2 points better in that regard) the Dolphins should be favored by 2 1/2 points at home.
My math model is way more complicated than that and I actually favor Miami by 1 1/2 points. My other model also favors Miami by 1 1/2 points, so getting 3 points at home is clearly good line value. It's pretty clear that the odds makers and the public are factoring in Pittsburgh's need to win this game, but needing to win and being able to are different things. After all, if Pittsburgh could win whenever they needed to then they wouldn't be in this must win situation to begin with. Must win teams are actually only 50-83-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the season when facing a team out of playoff contention and teams with playoff incentive haven't been performing well this year either (New York Giants against Carolina, Minnesota and New Orleans both playing with incentive to get home field advantage and both losing consecutive games to losing teams). That 50-83-4 ATS trend doesn't officially apply since Miami isn't mathematically out of the playoffs, but the idea behind that angle is in play here, as Pittsburgh is favored because of the must win situation being factored into the line, which the odds makers do because they know that Joe Gambler likes betting on must win teams against losing teams. Pittsburgh also applies to a 2-20-1 ATS late season situation that plays against teams that are 1 game over .500 (i.e. teams likely still fighting for the playoffs), so history is not on the Steelers side either. Miami is now just 1-8 ATS as a favorite, but the Dolphins are 12-9 straight up and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 as an underdog or pick, including 4-2 straight up and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 such games.
Even though the line value and situation favor the Dolphins here, I am a bit concerned about Ben Roethlisberger going against a vulnerable Miami secondary that has not been able to stop a good quarterback since limiting Drew Brees to 6.4 yards per pass play in week 7. My math model projects Roethlisberger to average a very good 7.4 yards per pass play but Miami has allowed 8 yards per pass play or more in their last 4 games against better than average quarterbacks. Pittsburgh would have to average 9 yards per pass play to merit being a 3 point road favorite here, which is extreme, so the value is still on Miami even if Roethlisberger has a great game. I'll consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Tennessee (-4.0) 28 SEATTLE 19
Over/Under Total: 45.0
Tennessee was rudely eliminated from the playoffs on Christmas night by the Chargers, but the Titans are excited about the prospect of finishing the season at 8-8 after their 0-6 start (they'd be the first ever to do so). The other goal is to get running back Chris Johnson to 2000 rushing yards for the season and perhaps getting him the 234 yards it would take to break the single season rushing record of Eric Dickerson. I added a few more runs to my math model prediction, which lowered the Titans' scoring prediction a bit, but my math still favors the Titans by 7 1/2 points in this game. Tennessee is obviously much better offensively since Vince Young took over an Young has been 1.1 yards per pass play better than an average quarterback this season (7.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Add that efficient passing to Johnson's 5.8 ypr average and the offense is very good right now. Seattle's defense got worse as the season progressed and I rate that unit at 0.6 yards per play worse than average with their current lineup. Seattle is actually decent against the run for the season, but they gave up 5.2 ypr to the Packers last week in the first game without rookie star Aaron Curry, so perhaps the run defense isn't so solid (although I did not adjust the run defense down because of one game, which could be just random variance).
Tennessee's defense also got a boost this week with ineffective CB Nick Harper going on the injured list for the final game. Harper's absence makes room for Rod Hood to step back into the starting CB spot opposite star CB Cortland Finnegan. Tennessee's pass defense was very good in the 3 games in which Hood started (0.9 yards per pass play better than average) and then slumped back to mediocrity when Harper returned from his broken arm in week 11. Harper said his arm hadn't completely healed and it affected his play, which can be seen in the numbers. I think the Titans' pass defense will be from below average to pretty good now that Hood is back as a starter and Seattle's offense is a mess right now with their only dangerous receiver Nate Burleson sidelined. Seattle is 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average for the season and they've been 1.2 yppp worse than average in 2 games without Burleson (4.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average team). Seattle rushing attack goes from bad to average with Justin Forsett likely to get the bulk of the work this week with Julius Jones questionable to play. I rate the Titans' run defense at 0.2 ypr worse than average with LB Keith Bullock out, but my math model still only forecasts 4.9 yards per play for the Seahawks in this game while predicting 6.7 yppl for Tennessee even with the Titans running the ball about 60% of the time.
My math model favors Tennessee by 9 points in this game and the Titans are likely to bounce-back from last week's 17-42 loss to the Chargers, as teams that lose to the spread by 25 points or more are 84-41-4 ATS the next week since 2001. I would certainly make this game a Best Bet if not for the Titans' obvious attempt to get Chris Johnson as many rushing yards as possible, which may not be optimal for attacking a Seattle defense that is decent against the run and horrible defending the pass. That uncertainty is enough for me to pass unless the line drops to -3. I'll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and I'd take the Titans in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (at -115 odds or better).
Double Dragon
Bills -7 (-120)
Browns -1
Eagles +3
Jets -9.5
Packers +3.5
Chiefs +10.5
Chargers -3 (-120)
BLACK WIDOW
6* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR Atlanta Falcons -1
The Falcons have not had back-to-back winning seasons in the franchise's 44-year history. Coming off an 11-5 campaign last year, they sit at 8-7 this season. Even though they are eliminated from the playoffs, this team has proven that they want to become the first Falcons' team to accomplish back-to-back winning seasons. That has been evident the last two weeks, as they went on the road to beat the New York Jets 10-7 and crushed Buffalo at home last week by a final of 31-3. With Matt Ryan back in the lineup, this Falcons' offense is hitting on all cylinders. Their defense has allowed just 10 points combined and less than 500 yards of total offense in their last 2 games while forcing 6 turnovers. Offensively, they are playing sound football with no turnovers in their last two games. Tampa Bay is riding high off their upset win over the Saints last week, and they're in for an emotional letdown here following their biggest victory of the season. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Buccaneers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
5* Wiseguy AFC GAME OF THE WEEK Cleveland Browns -1
Cleveland has a chance to put together their first 4-game winning streak in 15 years. They have a chance to close out the season with 4 straight wins for the first time since 1986. This team has not quit on their coach, and they are playing out the season. Though Jacksonville is still mathematically alive for the playoffs, their chances are slim to none. The Jaguars were 7-5, but they have dropped 3 straight games after their 7-35 loss to New England last week. The Jaguars are deflated, and they won't show up to play Sunday in Cleveland knowing that their chances at a playoff berth are all but over. Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. The Browns haven't needed much from their passing game of late, because their defense has been stout and their running game is rolling. They are allowing just 16.3 points/game in their last 3 games, and are rushing for 229 yards/game over their last 3 contests. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. Take the Browns and lay the points.
5* Wiseguy NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK Packers/Cardinals OVER 43.5
Both the Packers and Cardinals still have something to play for. Each is playing to improve their playoff seeding, while the Cardinals can even earn a first-round bye with a win and some help. That means each team will be going all out here, which favors a high-scoring game between two of the most potent offenses in the league. The Packers put up 28.5 points/game this season. They even score 29.9 points/game and put up 409 total yards/game on the road this season. The Cardinals average 24.5 points/game this year and have score 30 or more points in 3 of their last 4 contests. Against the Steelers and Seahawks the last two weeks, the Packers have put up an average of 42 points/game. The Packers are 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons. That adds up to a 25-2 (93%) Angle in favor of the OVER. Take the OVER 43.5 points here.
4* Chicago Bears -3
The Bears finally had something go their way last week, beating the Vikings in overtime 36-30. They'll come together as a team and carry that momentum into this Sunday's season finale in Detroit. The Lions haven't even been competitive recently, and they won't be Sunday either. Detroit has lost 5 straight games by an average of 19.6 points/game. They are without starting QB Matthew Stafford, and without him their passing game is virtually non-existent. Detroit has thrown for less than 200 yards in each of their last 5 games, and have committed 18 turnovers in the process. Their defense has given up more than 200 yards passing in 11 straight games, and Jay Cutler is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 258 yards and 4 touchdowns against Minnesota. Detroit is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Take Chicago and lay the points.
4* on Pittsburgh Steelers -3
The Steelers have fought too hard to keep themselves alive in the playoff hunt to lose now. They have been playing like champions the last 2 weeks, beating the Packers and Ravens who are two of the better teams in the league. The Miami Dolphins have taken a different route, getting behind big early to both the Texans and Titans the last 2 weeks and nearly coming back to beat them both, but came up short. Their hearts have been ripped out, and now at 7-8 their chances of making the playoffs are miniscule to say the least. The Steelers at 8-7 have a much better shot, but still need some help. The state of mind these two teams are in right now says that Pittsburgh is going to roll to victory in Miami Sunday. Plus, the Steelers are the better team and easily the best team in the league that is on the outside looking in right now. Home-field hasn't been much of an advantage for Miami over the last few years, either. The Dolphins are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games. The Dolphins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 January games and they know how to get it done this time of year. Take Pittsburgh and lay the points.
4* Indianapolis Colts +9
Clearly, the Colts will be resting players this week. But they take on the Buffalo Bills, a team that has clearly packed it in. Buffalo went down to Atlanta and lost 31-3 to the Falcons last week. They won't be up for this game, because they aren't excited to play a Colts' team that will be resting their starters. The backups for Indy are very motivated here, because they know they let their team down last week by blowing a second half lead and letting the New York Jets come back to beat them. So the motivational factor favors the Colts here, with their backups wanting to make amends for their efforts last week. The Colts are 7-0 S.U. & 7-0 ATS in road games this season. With another victory, the Colts would finish the regular season unbeaten on the road for the first time since the 1968 team was 7-0 outside of Baltimore. They've never gone 15-1 overall. So there's still a lot of reason here for the Colts to be motivated to win. Take Indy and the points.
4* New England Patriots +9
Tom Brady will play Sunday as head coach Bill Belichick wants his team to finish off the season sharp, knowing they'll have to play next week. New England is still playing for either the No. 3 or the No. 4 seed, which could become a factor down the road as far as home-field advantage is concerned. This is what Brady said Belichick told him: “You’ll play. Don’t worry about that. You’ll be playing." “Close game, blowout, if we get behind,” he said. “I’m expecting to play the whole game. I wouldn’t see why I wouldn’t.” The Patriots are 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992. New England is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. With Brady likely to play, and this line being inflated due to the Texans' having a little more at stake, we'll take the value here with New England. Take the Patriots and the points.
TIM TRUSHEL
20* Saints
Colts
Dolphins
ANTHONY REDD
20 Dimer - Cowboys (buy down to 2.5)
Kelso
200 Units Bills -8