MustWinSports
5 DIME CLEVELAND
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - San Diego Chargers
First things first: this is an absolutely meaningless game for the Chargers, who are locked into the # 2 seed in the AFC and have a first-round playoff bye. But don't for a minute think a number of veterans on this team haven't forgotten when they earned the No. 1 seed back in 2006 and promptly got upset by New England at home in their first playoff outing. The subject was brought up this week so I just don't think the 'Bolts are going to roll over and play dead today.
Another thing I thought about when analyzing this game: Back in August, Norv Turner decided to play his veterans and starters more - including LaDainian Tomlinson - in the preseason so his team would avoid its usual slow start out of the starting gate. Any coach that was that concerned about the start of the season surely isn't going to throw away the momentum created by a 10-game winning streak that could be 11 heading into the playoffs, right?
Turner says his starters will see action before getting pulled today. Don't be surprised if they go just the first quarter. But that's not so bad considering this San Diego squad has outscored its foes 73-16 in the opening quarter during its 10-game winning streak. Conversely, today's opponent, Washington, has been outscored 86-41 in the first quarter of games this year.
Am I worried what happens to the San Diego offense once Philip Rivers takes his helmet off for good? Actually, not at all. This isn't like the Colts replacing Peyton Manning with a rookie last week. Instead, when Rivers exits, 10-year veteran Billy Volek will enter.
A little background: When I handicap preseason football, the factor that means the most to me is the strength of back-up quarterbacks because they generally will be the ones whom your money will be riding on. During his career, first at Tennessee and now with San Diego, Volek has always been one of my favorites because he's a decent passer with adequate mobility (important when you're often playing behind a makeshift offensive line) and his teams score points.
Today's contest is in essence a pre-season game for the Chargers so what I wrote above applies with Volek and San Diego's prospects.
Defensively, San Diego will not be as stout with the starters sitting, but I question the Redskins' desire after getting outscored 62-12 in losses to division rivals New York and Dallas the past two weeks. Talk about showing no heart. Washington epitomizes a team playing out the string. The players know Jim Zorn is a dead man walking and total upheaval is coming. Don't expect them to rally and play well in a road finale.
One final tidbit: Washington is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games versus the AFC.
An entertaining game? Probably not. But at this price, I'll lay around a field goal with the home team and call for the Chargers to prevail 23-14.
Strategy Note:
You've heard me discuss this many times on TV and radio; I only believe in buying half points when the number is around 3, 4 or 7. This price is floating between 3 and 3 1/2 so go ahead and buy down the half-point in either case on San Diego.
KBHoops
5* Duke -10 **POD**
4* Detroit Lions +3.5 -115
4* Cleveland Browns -1.5
4* Atlanta Falcons -1
4* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 -115
4* Arizona Cardinals-2.5 -120
4* San Diego Chargers -2.5 -120
4* Dallas Cowboys -2.5 -115
RAS
UTEP
Sportsbetsnow
2 Units JAX/CLE UNDER 36
2 Units Seattle +6
Kelso
3 units Spurs -1.5
5 units N. Iowa -6.5
10 units Wichita State -10.5
25 units Iowa St -5.5
3 units Titans -6
5 units Bears -3
10 units Texans -7
Street Rosenthal
*500 Steelers -3
*300 Eagles +3
*200 Texans -7
*200 Cardinals -3
*200 Titans -6
*200 Giants +8
MR EAST
NFL SUNDAY EXPLOSION
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS COWBOYS
3 UNITS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +3
The Philadelphia Eagles have always figured out the Cowboys in game 2 of their meetings regardless of the result of game 1. The eagles have held the Cowboys this decade to 76 points in their 2nd game, while scoring 224 themselves. That is an average score of 24.9 to 8.4!!! Then you can kick in a league wide trend that sees a road dog playing vs a team they lost to earlier in the season, coming back to a 56-21-3 ATS mark in the return game. That is some pretty powerful stuff on the eagles here, and I'll back them in this one.
Executive
300 Dallas
300 Seattle
MTi Sports
5* KC Chiefs
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
YTD 45-40 +2.70%
3% CLEVELAND PK
3% NEW ENGLAND +7.5
3% CINCINNATI +10 Must get at least 10 points
3% NY GIANTS/MINNESOTA OVER 47.5
BUFFALO -8 Indianapolis 33.5
Indy figures to rest their starters this week. They will probably play a series or two and then exit. Weather looks to be cold, windy and snow. Buffalo qualifies in a couple of late season scheduling situations, which are 124-64-1 and 103-57-2. This is a pretty significant line move. My original numbers would have favored Indy by 11 points and predicted about 38 points. If this line was less than seven, I would give Buffalo more serious consideration. Once Manning is out (which should be quick), not sure Indy can do much on offense. BUFFALO 24 INDIANAPOLIS 14
CAROLINA -7 New Orleans NT
Saints figure to play their starters some to attempt to get back on track. They have nothing to play for in terms of seeding. My normal line would favor NO by 4.5 points and predict about 49 points. Not knowing how long the Saints starters will play makes this a tough call but if they play any extended amount, they have a chance to cover this large number. No Steve Smith for Carolina as he broke his arm last week catching a touchdown pass. CAROLINA 24 NEW ORLEANS 20
CLEVELAND PK Jacksonville 35.5
Jacksonville was blown out in NE, as expected, last week. They were out gained 7.5yppl to 5.3yppl, including allowing 10.3yps and 5.5ypr. They managed just 3.9ypr and 6.6yps. Cleveland won for the third straight game, but were out played somewhat at the line of scrimmage. They were out gained overall 5.7yppl to 4.3yppl. But, the run/pass balance had a lot to do with that. While they were out rushed 4.6ypr to 3.9ypr, some of that is because they chose to run the ball 46 times. They out passed Oakland 6.2yps to 6.1yps but only threw the ball 19 times to 49 passes for Oakland, which skewed the overall yppl numbers. These two defenses are about the same with Cleveland allowing 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl and Jacksonville allowing 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. The Jacksonville offense is average at 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl, while Cleveland averages just 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. The weather looks to be extremely cold, windy and possible snow. Not sure Jacksonville will appreciate this for their last game, knowing their playoff chances are slim to none. Numbers favor Jacksonville by two points and predict about 38 points before accounting for the situations Cleveland qualifies in. Cleveland qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 81-38-7 and a late season scheduling situation, which is 103-57-2. Jacksonville will be without Rashean Mathis at cb and that significantly hurts their defense. CLEVELAND 23 JACKSONVILLE 16
DALLAS -3 Philadelphia 47
Rematch of last years drubbing by Philly in the last game of the season, although that game was played at Philly. Philly jumped out to a big lead last week and then held on with a late field goal to defeat Denver. But, they out passed Denver 7.4yps to 3.9yps and overall, 5.9yppl to 3.9yppl. Dallas won handily at Washington, 17-0, out rushing the Skins 3.6ypr to 2.4ypr, out passing them 7.3yps to 4.2yps and overall, 5.7yppl to 3.6yppl. Dallas brings the better offense, 6.2yppl against 5.3yppl to Philly’s 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl, but Philly brings the better defense. They allow just 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl, while Dallas allows 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by two points and predict about 44 points. Plenty of motivation for both teams as the division is on the line for the winner. And, for Philly, that means a two seed and a bye if they win. Dallas has won here at home by more than three points just three times in the last ten years (twice by more than four points) so this figures to be a tough game. I like Philly with their big play offensive capabilities a little better. PHILADELPHIA 23 DALLAS 21
Chicago -3 DETROIT 45
Bears jumped out big on Minnesota last week and did enough to get the win in OT. When it was all said and done, they had played Minnesota even at 5.6yppl each. Detroit lost at SF last week but played hard and if it were not for six Lion turnovers, the results could have been different. They were out gained 4.8yppl to 4.4yppl but out passed 7.1yps to 5.0yps. They did manage to run for 3.7ypr and hold SF to just 2.6ypr. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Chicago by six points and predict about 43 points. Not a big opinion here as Chicago could be hung over from last week’s big win and Detroit is still playing hard. I’ll lean slightly with the more talented team. CHICAGO 24 DETROIT 20
HOUSTON -7.5 New England 46
Patriots were great last week in their 35-7 win over Jacksonville. They out rushed Jacksonville 5.5ypr to 3.9ypr, out passed them 10.3yps to 6.6yps and overall, 7.5yppl to 5.3yppl. Houston was likewise as impressive at Miami. They out passed Miami 8.8yps to 5.2yps and overall, 6.3yppl to 4.9yppl. Houston averages just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr. They do average 7.5yps against 6.3yps but NE is actually a little more impressive at 7.4yps against 6.0yps. Overall, Houston averages 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl but NE is at 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense, these teams are similar at 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Houston qualifies in a last season scheduling situation, which is 124-64-1 but they also qualify in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 151-52-8 and plays against them here. Normal numbers favor NE by 1.5 points and predict about 46 points. It remains to be seen how long NE starters will play but I think it will be a decent amount. Based on the fact they may not play the whole and Houston needs this game to have a shot at the playoffs, this line has been inflated way too high, IMO. I like NE in this spot. The only teams Houston has defeated at home this year by more than seven points are lowly Oakland and Seattle. While NE hasn’t played well on the road this year, the only game they were blown out of was at NO, when NO was playing well. They dominated Miami but lost because of turnovers by just one point and lost by one at Indy when they collapsed in the end. As a hedge, you could look to play the over in this game. If NE gets to 20 points, you can’t lose both ways and I believe Brady and company will play long enough to have that shot. If they’re interested, they are still playing for a number three seed. NEW ENGLAND 27 HOUSTON 24
Pittsburgh -3 MIAMI 45.5
Both teams with a shot at the playoffs, although limited for both. Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore last week in a game that was played pretty evenly as both teams averaged 4.8yppl. Pittsburgh averaged just 2.1ypr to 4.6ypr (175) for Baltimore but out passed Baltimore 6.4yps to 5.1yps. Miami was beaten pretty badly by Houston although they made the game close in the end. They were out passed 8.8yps to 5.2yps and overall out gained 6.3yppl to 4.9yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by two points and predict about 46 points. Pittsburgh averages 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. Miami averages just 5.4yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. Pittsburgh will probably be without Polamalu and maybe Hines Ward. Miami will probably have Ricky Williams but he may be limited. Steelers are the better team and their passing game matches up well against a poor Miami pass defense. Likewise, Pittsburgh stops the rush well, which will force Miami to throw the ball to win. They have been better as of late throwing the ball and Pittsburgh is still having issues in their secondary. Not quite enough value for me to pull the trigger on either the side or the total but if you’re looking for something else to play, it’s probably the best non best bet on the board with Pittsburgh and/or the over. PITTSBURGH 30 MIAMI 23
MINNESOTA -9 NY Giants 47.5
Vikings fell way behind last week in the first half, played a very solid second half to force OT and then lost with a couple of key miscues in OT. While it was a tale of two halves, the overall game was evenly played with Chicago at 7.0yps and 5.6yppl for each team. The Giants were crushed at home against Carolina 41-9 to knock them out of the playoffs. They were out rushed 5.4ypr to 3.2ypr (247-60) and out passed 8.0yps to 5.5yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.2yppl to 4.8yppl and turned the ball over four times. The Giants average 7.1yps against 6.1yps compared to Minnesota, who averages 6.9yps against 6.3yps. Overall on offense, the Giants average 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl, while Minnesota averages 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. That makes the Giants slightly better on offense. On defense, they allow 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl, while Minnesota allows 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. Both teams are hurting on defense at linebacker and in the secondary so those seasonal numbers are not reflective of their current state. Minnesota needs to help (Philly loss) to get the second seed. But, this number is inflated based on their need. Minnesota qualifies in a couple of scheduling situations, which are 49-15-1, 124-64-1 and 103-57-2. The Giants qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 83-42-6. Numbers favor Minnesota by 4.5 points and predict about 48 points. Giants figure to play their starters short of injuries. They are missing key people in the secondary and at least one, if not two, key offensive lineman. They will probably also be without Ahmad Bradshaw and are without Brandon Jacobs. Vikings have lost their top linebacker (E.J. Henderson) as well as will probably limit Antoine Winfield (who was burned by key passes last week). Pat Williams, who missed last weeks game, is also questionable. Jimmy Kennedy (DL) will also probably miss this game. I’ll lean with the Giants because of the large number here but the real value lies with the over in this game. Minnesota has racked up at least 27 points in every home game this year. You can pencil them in for 27-35 points in their home games. If they get to 27, we will need the Giants to score at least 21. If they get to 35 points, we need the Giants to score 13 points. Giants have also allowed at least 40 points in four different games this year, including 31, 48 and 40 against the three good offenses they have played on the road this year. Vikings have allowed at least 23 points at home against the two good offenses they have played. The Giants have scored at least 24 points in all but two road games and prior to last week’s debacle, they had scored 45, 38 and 31 points in their three previous games. MINNESOTA 31 NY GIANTS 26
NY JETS -10 Cincinnati 35
Cincinnati has a shot at the number three seed if NE loses their game earlier. The Jets control their fate with a playoff berth if they win. It’s conceivable NE could lose and Cincinnati would value that number three seed and try to win this game. Marin Lewis has stated he plans on playing to win this game. The Cincinnati offense is better than the Jets at 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl compared to the Jets at 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl. The Cincinnati defense, while above average, is not as good as the Jets at 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl, compared to the Jets at 4.3yppl against 5.4yppl. The Jets qualify in a late season scheduling situation, which is 124-64-1. This line is inflated but not as much as I originally would have thought. My numbers favor the Jets by seven points and predict about 29 points. Lewis has stated he plans to try and win this game. Although the situation favors the Jets I like Cincinnati to keep this game close. The dog in Cincy games is now 14-1 ATS this year. The Jets have just one win at home this year by more than 10 points and that was by 11 points against Carolina. Granted, if Cincinnati pulls their starters, the Jets posses the type of defense that could roll but their own offense isn’t that great. The Bengal’s have lost just one game by more than 11 points this year and that was at Minnesota. NY JETS 16 CINCINNATI 13
San Francisco -7 ST LOUIS 40.5
SF won last week over Detroit, thanks to six Lion turnovers, but they weren’t as impressive as expected. They out gained the Lions 4.8yppl to 4.4yppl. The Rams were out played in Arizona, losing 31-10, and out gained 5.7yppl to 4.2yppl. Stephen Jackson did not play and may not play here. They will start Null at quarterback again this game. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SF by nine points and predict about 28 points. SF hasn’t won by more than four points here in the last ten years. While they have played some tough competition on the road this year, they have only won one road game and that was the first game against Arizona by four points. The Rams have played just one game below .500 at home this year and lost by ten points to Seattle. Slight lean for SF. SAN FRANCISCO 21 ST LOUIS 13
Atlanta -2.5 TAMPA BAY 41.5
Not much of an opinion on this game. TB has played better as of late since Morris began taking over the defensive play calling duties. Atlanta will probably be without Michael Turner but should have Matt Ryan. Falcons playing hard to attempt to finish over .500 for consecutive seasons for the first time in their history. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Atlanta by three points and predict about 38 points. ATLANTA 20 TAMPA BAY 17
ARIZONA -3.5 Green Bay 44.5
If Minnesota loses Arizona could have a shot at the #2 seed along with a Philly loss (Philly plays at the same time as Arizona). Short of that, this match up probably repeats itself the next week in the playoffs. Packers cannot improve their position so they will not show much in this game. Either will Arizona unless they have a shot at the second seed. Tough to guess what happens based on that. Numbers would predict Arizona by 1.5 points and 48 points. ARIZONA 24 GREEN BAY 13
DENVER -12 Kansas City 38
Broncos has benched Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler for this game. Eddie Royal is also very questionable. Denver needs help to make the playoffs. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers would favor Denver by 15 points and predict about 40 points. DENVER 27 KANSAS CITY 14
Baltimore -10.5 OAKLAND 38
Baltimore lost at Pittsburgh last week but played the Steelers even at 4.8yppl each. The Raiders lost at Cleveland but averaged 5.7yppl to 4.3yppl for Cleveland, although some of that was because they threw the ball 30 more times than Cleveland to inflate those numbers slightly. Ravens control their fate. If they win they are in the playoffs. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Baltimore by 13 points and predict about 34 points. Lean is towards Baltimore here. BALTIMORE 24 OAKLAND 10
SAN DIEGO -3.5 Washington 38.5
SD is locked into the number two seed. They figure to rest their starters at some point. Billy Volek is a capable replacement at quarterback for SD. Washington has been crushed the last couple of weeks and doubt they have much interest in flying across country for a meaningless game. The only question is how quickly will Jim Zorn have the plugged pulled after this game. Chargers do qualify in a late season scheduling situation, which is 124-64-1. Numbers would favor SD by 11.5 points and predict about 42 points. Hard to back the Redskins at this point and SD could jump out to a large enough lead to cover the spread with their starters early in the game. SAN DIEGO 24 WASHINGTON 14
Tennessee -4 SEATTLE 44.5
Tennessee was blown out last week at home against San Diego. They have now won seven of their last nine games with the only losses to Indy and SD. Seattle, meanwhile, was blown out again last week at Green Bay. They have been miserable as of late. Seattle qualifies in late season scheduling situation, which is 124-64-1 while Tennessee qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 562-426-30. Numbers favor Tennessee by four points and predict about 47 points. Tennessee figures to play hard to get Chris Johnson some rushing and total yard records. Tennessee has picked up their offense with Vince Young but has some key injuries on defense that should allow Seattle to generate some offense. This total has started to rise, which will keep me off the over. If it were to go back down to 44 I would consider it again. TENNESSEE 30 SEATTLE 21
Vernon Croy
Sunday Afternoon NFL Bookie Buster
3* Take the Philadelphia Eagles
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Eagles are the better team in this game Sunday with more on the line. If the Eagles beat the Cowboys they get the NFC second seed and NFC East title. The Cowboys need to beat the Eagles but then also have to hope that the Vikings and Cardinals lose for them to move up from 6th to the second seed. This game means everything for the Eagles so I look for their intensity to be at an all time high Sunday. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. The Eagles offense is averaging 34 ppg over their last 3 games and they just keep getting better week after week as a team. Grab the points with the Eagles as my NFL Bookie Buster for Sunday.
Nelly
Dallas Cowboys - over Philadelphia Eagles
The Cowboys have cured their December woes with back-to-back wins to make the playoffs. This game will decide the NFC East winner as the Cowboys won the first meeting between these teams and would win the tiebreaker. Philadelphia still would potentially have a shot at the #2 spot in the NFC should Minnesota continue to falter. The Eagles crushed Dallas 44-6 to close the season last year and a home playoff game would be very appealing for Dallas and a coaching staff in limbo. Dallas has been very strong at home and the Cowboys may be able to calm some doubters, at least until the playoff exit. Philadelphia is a hot team but as of right now Philadelphia has zero wins over teams that would make the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs + over Denver Broncos
The late season fade for the Broncos continues with a very tough loss last week in Philadelphia. Denver appeared to be a safe playoff bet most of the year knowing the final three games featured Oakland and Kansas City but the Broncos whiffed against the Raiders and their fate is now in the hands of the Jets and Ravens. Kansas City played close last week against the Bengals but the defense has horrible numbers for the season and Denver’s offense should have a big day. The Broncos have been an awful home favorite and this could be a track meet as the intensity may be lacking for a Broncos team content to fade away for another season, more painful this year after a 6-0 start.
Cincinnati Bengals + over New York Jets
The Jets got the huge win they needed against Indianapolis but they had a lot of help to get there. Cincinnati locked up the AFC North but it was an uninspired effort against Kansas City. Going on the road could be a tough way to close out the year but the Bengals defense will make it hard to cover a near double-digit spread that could inflate even further. The Jets win and they’re in but that is rarely the slam dunk situation it is expected to be, especially taking a turnover prone rookie QB into a big game against a quality defense. The Bengals can still play for the #3 spot in the AFC which has some importance and this does not look like a team that will lie down and surrender in this situation. New York is not a team that can score a lot of points and with a ball control offense this should be a lower scoring game, magnifying the very large spread. The Bengals may lift some key players to get ready for next week’s game but this should still be a competitive effort and a game that is likely decided by less than a touchdown either way.
James Patrick Sports
Ohio State vs. Michigan
This is a very sound Michigan Wolverine Basketball team that HC John Beilein has put together as they have very good size with 4 players 6'10" or better and posses the Big Ten Conference's best inside - outside combo in Harris & Sims. The Wolverines are deep and shooting won't be any problem for the Maize & Blue this season. To much size and talent and we expect Michigan to make a lot of noise in the Big Ten Conference this season even though they have started slowly. Buckeyes haven't figured how to compensate for the loss of Evan Turner as they are win-less with (5) straight ATS losses without Turner on the court. Ohio State likes Sundays off as evidenced by their (2-7) ATS mark. Hail to the Victors as the home team win this edition of College Sports biggest rivalry. 5* Pot of Gold Michigan Wolverines.
UTEP vs. Texas Tech
These teams love to get up and down the court and this is going to be quite an entertaining game if the referees let them play.UTEP is (40-19-1) ATS Over the Total in non-conference action while the Red Raiders are (10-1-1) ATS Over the Total their past (12) non-conference home games. The Miners played Over the Total at a (35-16) ATS mark the past (51) road contests while Texas Tech checks in with a (28-9-2) ATS Over the Total mark their past (39) overall and (13-6) ATS Over the Total at home of late. Let the scoring begin in this Texas Shootout! 3* UTEP -Texas Tech Over.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Cincinnati / Jets Under 35.5
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this matchup:
Cincinnati wrapped up its first division title since 2005 after struggling past Kansas City 17-10 last Sunday, capping what was an emotionally draining week following the Dec. 17 death of wide receiver Chris Henry.
The Bengals need a victory and have New England to lose to Houston to claim the No. 3 seed, but a loss to the Jets would create a rematch between the teams in Cincinnati next week.
Cincinnati has totaled 305 points - the fewest among the seven teams to clinch division titles. The Bengals have failed to score more than 24 in any of their last eight games.
Despite having to go with a patchwork defense over the past couple weeks, defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is expecting better of his unit, especially with the stakes becoming bigger.
"We can't play like that and win anything in the playoffs," Zimmer said of last week's game. "We made too many mistakes all over. We're better than that. We had guys playing pass and it was run and run when it was pass."
When defensive end Antwan Odom went down, Jonathan Fanene stepped in and has six sacks. Strong safety Chinedum Ndukwe reclaimed his starting spot after Roy Williams was injured and is third on the team in tackles, including an interception last week.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of Cincinnati's last five overall and in five of their last seven vs. New York.
On the other side of the field: If the Jets win; they're in; simple as that.
Last week New York scored 19 unanswered points after the Colts - assured of the AFC’s No. 1 seed heading into the game - pulled their starters late in the third quarter.
The Jets are 4-2 when Mark Sanchez does not throw an INT, and since he is backed by the league’s best rushing offense at 166.6 yards per game, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer likely will devise a gameplan similar to the one employed last Sunday; running backs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene gashed the Colts for 200 yards on the ground.
New York’s defense, which leads the NFL in scoring defense at 15.7 points per game, has conceded just 47 in winning four of five.
Remember, the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of New York's last five overall and in four of their last five when playing at home vs. Cincinnati.
Bottom line: Heading into the playoffs Zimmer would like to see an improved pass rush; the Bengals have three sacks in the last two games, but all of those were on blitzes. Zimmer has liked the matchups the last couple weeks, but the Bengals have not done a good job of manufacturing sacks; expect a concerted effort on the defensive side of the ball from the Bengals in this one, especially when the offensive starters (almost certainly), sit in the second half.
Here is another powerful "under" trend that both teams have exhibited over the last three seasons; both have seen the total go "under" the posted number in nine of eleven games in the last four weeks of their respective regular seasons.
So, keeping those powerful trends in mind, and when taking into account these other strong O/U trends and these other factors, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!
10* UNDER