Sports Unlimited
Philadelphia
Baltimore / Kansas City Over
Gregg Price
5* Green Bay
4* Baltimore / Kansas City Under
Sean Higgs
10* Baltimore
5* Baltimore / Kansas City Under
5* Philadelphia
Seabass
200* Nevada
200* Villanova
100* Baltimore
100* Baltimore Under
100* Teaser Baltimore & Under
100* Green Bay
Executive
250% Eagles -2.5
250% Nevada -7.5
Tom Stryker
Baltimore -3
Nevada / Boston College Over
Larry Ness
Legend - Denver Nuggets -5
DR BOB
Strong Opinion
PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) 27 Green Bay 19
Philadelphia is a better team than Green Bay statistically and the Eagles apply to some solid playoff situations. Philly’s offense was among the best in the NFL this season, averaging 6.3 yards per play (excluding their week 17 game when the rested starters) against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl and the Eagles were 1.1 yppl better than average with Michael Vick at quarterback. That unit has a solid edge over a good Packers’ defense that yielded 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Green Bay was good at limiting teams from scoring, as they were much better from a point allowed perspective than a yards allowed perspective. The Pack yielded just 15.0 points per game and I’ll address their ability to play better than their stats defensively later.
The Packers’ offense is all about Aaron Rodgers, who averaged a stellar 7.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) and had to overcome a poor rushing attack (4.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr). Overall the Packers are 0.6 yppl better than average with Rodgers in the game and my math model projects 343 yards at 5.6 yppl on the road against an Eagles’ defense that is better than their season numbers. Philadelphia was just 0.1 yppl better than average defensively for the season (excluding week 17), but star CB Asante Samuel missed 4 games and the pass defense was horrible without him. In 12 games that Samuel played the Eagles’ pass defense was 0.6 yppp better than average (5.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.2 yppp) and the run defense is a bit better than average too (4.2 ypr against teams that would average 4.3 ypr against an average defense). Overall, the Eagles are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively with Samuel playing, so their defense is almost as good as the Packers’ offense and that unit held the Packers to just 4.8 yppl in their week 1 loss.
That week 1 game was also the game in which Michael Vick came off the bench for injured starter Kevin Kolb and nearly led the Eagles back from a huge deficit in a 20-27 loss. Vick averaged a decent 6.1 yppp but he ran for 103 yards on 11 runs. Green Bay will be better prepared for Vick this time around, but teams with revenge 36-19 ATS in the playoffs since 2002, including 7-2 ATS for home teams that are not favored by more than 3 points. Playoff home teams are also 27-13 ATS in their first playoff game if they lost 2 of their final 3 regular season games, so the Eagles’ recent struggles is no reason not to play them here.
My math model projects 386 yards at 6.3 yppl for Philly in this game and 343 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Packers and the projected stats would result in a prediction of Philadelphia by 5.5 points. However, Green Bay’s defense is a bend but don’t break unit that allowed just 15.0 points per game and the Packers out-played their stats by an average of 2.0 points per game. The Eagles, meanwhile, were 1.1 points worse than their stats would predict and I would get a fair line of Philadelphia by 2 ½ points if each team continues to perform at the same level relative to their statistics. So, the line is fair at the very least and it’s likely that some of the difference between each team’s scoring margin and their predicted scoring margin is just random variance – so the line should be somewhere between 2 ½ and 5 ½ points. The situation certainly favors the Eagles, as the Packers also apply to a negative 40-78-3 ATS playoff road team situation. I’ll consider Philadelphia a Strong Opinion at -3 or less
KANSAS CITY (+3) 19 Baltimore 20
Kansas City played their starters last week despite having nothing to gain and the Chiefs played like they had nothing to gain in their 10-31 home loss to the Raiders. That was the only home loss of the season for Kansas City and the Chiefs have a long history of success here in Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is 48-22-2 ATS as a home underdog since 1980 and they have an even better record when they have a decent team. If you exclude the games in which they enter the game 3 or more games below .500 the Chiefs are 35-8-2 ATS as a home dog, including 2-0 straight up this season (wins over San Diego and San Francisco). Kansas City is not as good as the Ravens, but they’re not too much worse either. The Chiefs are average offensively with Matt Cassell in the game (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), they’re 0.3 yppl better than average defensively and their special teams cost them 0.8 points per game.
Baltimore could have some trouble moving the ball against the Chiefs’ better than average stop unit, as the Ravens are 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively and have topped 4.8 yppl only once in their last 5 games. If Baltimore is going to win this game they’ll have to do it with their defense, which was 0.4 yppl better than average for the season. That unit is better now, however, as star S Ed Reed missed the first 6 games of the season and didn’t start until week 9. In 9 games with Reed starting the Ravens have been 0.6 yppl better than average defensively while giving up just 15.7 points per game. My math model projects 302 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Chiefs in this game, but Baltimore is only projected to gain 308 yards at 5.0 yppl. Baltimore does have a big edge in special teams and overall the math favors the Ravens by 2 ½ points. However, that would go down to Baltimore by 1 ½ points if I throw out last week’s lackluster effort by the Chiefs against the Raiders. Aside from Kansas City’s home dog team trend there really isn’t anything else technical that favors the Chiefs in this game. Home underdogs or picks are 21-9 ATS in the playoffs, but only 3-4 ATS if the opponent has a record of 12-4 or better. Teams that were 5-11 or worse the previous season are just 8-24-2 ATS in playoff games when not getting more than 6 points, but the record of that angle is 2-1 for home dogs. I’ll lean with Kansas City on the basis of their home dog record.
The math model chance to cover listed below is based on the historical performance of my model for each difference from the line and does not take into account key numbers or any situational analysis, which may favor the opposite side (as has been the case numerous times this season). Please read my full analysis of a game to find out what my final prediction is. All games not part of the Best Bet email can be found on the site in the free analysis section.
Underdog
Boston College
RAS
Xavier Over 138.5
Red Dog Sports
10* Rhode Island -2.5
Xavier is 0-7-1 in their last 8 ATS and lost by 10 or more on the road at Cincinnati, Gonzaga and Miami Ohio. URI is 6-0 at home and beat Boston College by 2 recently. Xavier has done well in this series but I think the home team wins and covers the small number on Sunday.
Wunderdog
Dallas Stars
Dr. Bob
3* USC