Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, November 1,2009

Don Wallace Sports

New York -1
Carolina +10
Denver +3.5
San Francisco +13
Cleveland +13.5
Minnesota +3

SIXTH SENSE

3% INDIANAPOLIS -12.5
3% TENNESSEE -3
3% NY GIANTS -1
3% NEW ORLEANS -10.5
3% NY GIANTS/PHILADLEPHIA OVER 44
3% ATLANTA/NEW ORLEANS OVER 54

BALTIMORE -3 Denver 41.5

Both these teams last played two weeks ago prior to their bye week. Denver won at SD in a game they were held to just 3.1ypr but averaged 7.6yps and held a very good Charger passing attack to just 6.3yps. For the game they were out gained 5.3yppl to 5.2yppl. Baltimore lost a heartbreaker at Minnesota but played the Vikings evenly in the stats, especially after Antoine Winfield went out. The Ravens averaged 4.5ypr but allowed Minnesota 5.4ypr and gained 8.0yps to 8.1yps for Minnesota. Overall, they gained 7.0yppl to 6.8yppl to Minnesota. Denver averages 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Baltimore is rushing the ball well this year, averaging 4.9ypr against 4.4ypr and averaging 6.8yps against 6.5yps for a total of 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. They are holding their opponents to just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but allowing a whopping 7.2yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. That makes their defense well below average at this point in the season. This is clearly the best team Baltimore has played this year and while the Ravens offense is slightly better than Denver, the Broncos defense is much better than the Ravens defense at this point. That, along with the fact they are getting a field goal or better here make the Broncos the choice. I don’t have any situations on this game and I have been on the Broncos their last four games as Best Bets but just a lean this week. Numbers favor Denver by 3.5 points and predict about 43 points. DENVER 23 BALTIMORE 20

CHICAGO -13.5 Cleveland 40

Neither team looked very good last week as Chicago was blown out at Cincinnati 45-10 and Cleveland was blown out at home against GB, 31-3. The Browns allowed GB to gain 202 yards rushing at 4.9ypr and just 2.8ypr themselves. They allowed GB to average 11.7yps to just 2.6yps and overall were out gained 7.3yppl to 2.7yppl. Chicago was out rushed 215 yards to just 35 yards and out gained 4.8ypr to 2.9ypr. They allowed Cincinnati to average 9.7yps to just 6.1yps for them. Overall, they were out gained 6.5yppl to 5.4yppl. The only reason those yppl numbers were close is because Chicago threw the ball 15 times more often than Cincinnati, who ran the ball 45 times with a big lead. Cleveland is simply terrible throwing the ball, averaging just 3.9yps against 5.9yps and 3.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.1yps against 6.7yps and 6.0yppl against 5.6yppl. Chicago continues to struggle running the ball, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr. They average 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is still above average thanks to their pass defense, which his allowing 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. Cleveland qualifies in a general situation, which is 51-22-1. The Bears qualify in a negative situation based on their poor performance last week, which is 88-42-4 and plays against them here. The Browns have topped six points on the road just once in their four road games, and they only scored 14 points in that game. Meanwhile, they have allowed at least 27 points to the three average to above average offenses they have played on the road. The Bears have played a pretty tough schedule up to this point, with the exception of the Lions. They did score 48 points against the one poor defense they played, which was the Lions. Despite the situations favoring Cleveland, it’s hard to believe they will score more than 13 points in this game and it’s very likely Chicago will score at least 27 points. That makes it tough to cover the number. Numbers favor Chicago by 15.5 points and predict about 41 points. CHICAGO 27 CLEVELAND 13

Houston -3.5 BUFFALO 41.5

Houston jumped out to a large lead at home against SF last week, 21-0 but then had to hold off the 49ers in the end, who were led by Alex Smith in the second half. Houston rushed for just 3.3ypr and held SF to 3.1ypr. They passed for 7.7yps, which is normal but allowed an anemic SF passing attack to average 6.8yps. Overall they out gained SF 5.7yppl to 5.5yppl. Buffalo won for the second week but did it with less than spectacular numbers. They were out rushed 116 yards to 53 yards and 4.6ypr to 1.8ypr. They were out passed 309 yards to 114 yards and 6.7yps to 4.8yps and out gained overall 6.0yppl to 3.1yppl. For Buffalo, 17 of those 20 points were scored on drives of 27 yards or less, thanks to four Carolina turnovers. Houston continues to throw the ball well, averaging 7.7yps against 6.5yps and not run the ball well, averaging just 3.0ypr against 3.8ypr. Overall they average 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense continues to be well below average. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.7yps against 5.7yps and 5.8yppl against 5.1yppl. Buffalo can’t run the ball, averaging 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, can’t throw the ball, averaging 5.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They can’t stop the rush, allowing 5.2ypr against 4.5yps, including allowing 172 yards rushing a game. They have played decent pass defense, allowing just 5.1yps against 5.7yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl overall. Buffalo qualifies in a home dog momentum situation, which is 41-13-1. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 42 points. I would like to make Buffalo a best bet here but they have some key injuries and despite the fact they have won their last two games, they have been dominated in the stats and won the games because of turnovers. If that doesn’t continue and they don’t play better, I can’t see them covering. I will lean towards Buffalo because of the value and situation. BUFFALO 24 HOUSTON 23

GREEN BAY -3 Minnesota 47

Minnesota lost at Pittsburgh last week but looked pretty good in their first loss of the season. They were out rushed 5.3ypr to 3.9ypr but held a good Pittsburgh passing attack to 5.3yps, while averaging 5.4yps themselves. Overall, they were out gained 5.3yppl to 4.9yppl. GB had no problem disposing of Cleveland as they ran for 202 yards at 4.9ypr, passed for 258 yards at 11.7yps and just 2.6yps for Cleveland and out gained the Browns 7.3yppl to 2.7yppl. They also didn’t allow a sack for the first time this season. Minnesota continues to be a below average team from the line of scrimmage. They average 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense they allow 6.4yps against 5.8yps and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl. The Packers are averaging 7.3yps against 6.7yps and 6.0yppl against 5.7yppl overall. On defense they allow just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 5.5yps and 4.5yppl against 4.9yppl. GB’s numbers are much better from the line of scrimmage. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor GB by 5.5 points and predict about 52 points.

I had Minnesota in the first game between these two but this game sets up well for Green Bay. The Vikings will be without Antoine Winfield and possibly Bernard Berrian. GB will be without (most likely) Jermichael Finley, who scored on a 62 yard touchdown in the first game and helps GB stretch the field. The Packers had all sorts of problems with their offensive line in the first meeting but they have stabilized that line a bit. TJ Lang will probably get the start for GB at LT and Chad Clifton will back him up. Lang is a rookie but has played well the last few weeks. Barbre at RT has also played better and Mark Tauscher has been resigned and ready to back up there if needed. Scott Wells played center in that first game and has played there ever since and has done a much better job against the bigger defensive tackles the Packers have faced. While the line is still a concern it is in much better shape than the last game. On defense, the Packers are much better. Atari Bigby is back at safety and that allows the Packers to do a lot of things with their corners. Clay Matthews has been starting since that game and adds athletic talent on defense for GB. These two teams have played similar schedules up to this point. Both teams have played the same bad teams while each team has played different good teams but similar strength teams with Minnesota having played an extra game. With that said, the Packers numbers are much better from the line of scrimmage compared to the Vikings. GB is 3-0 at home the last three games against the Vikings here with wins by 5, 34 and 2 points. Minnesota is certainly a good team but the Packers are in a good spot this week and I believe they get the win. GREEN BAY 27 MINNESOTA 23

INDIANAPOLIS -12.5 San Francisco 45

Indianapolis disposed of the Rams rather easily last week. They rushed for 6.0ypr on 156 yards and averaged 6.9yps and 6.5yppl overall, while holding the Rams to 4.6yppl. The Rams did get their usual rushing yards, gaining 155 yards at 5.2ypr but averaged just 4.0yps. SF made a valiant comeback attempt at Houston after falling down 21-0 by inserting Alex Smith at quarterback but fell short in the end. They were held to just 3.1ypr by Houston but managed 6.8yps and 5.5yppl overall. They held a bad Houston rushing team to just 3.3ypr but did allow a good Houston passing team to average 7.7yps and 5.7yppl overall. SF will start Alex Smith again this week. They average just 5.3yps against 6.5yps and 4.8yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow just 3.3ypr against 3.7ypr and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Indy averages 8.6yps against 6.9yps and 6.7yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow just 4.6yps against 5.5yps and 4.4yppl against 5.0yppl. Indy qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 100-51-4. Numbers favor Indy by 16.5 points and predict about 43 points. Indy has only played two games at home this year and their defense has been solid, despite having some key injuries earlier in the year. Other than a 23 point effort at Miami, they haven’t allowed more than 17 points this year and the 17 they allowed to Seattle were two late scores after they had put the game away. Other than their opening season victory where they scored 14 points, they have scored at least 27 points in every game and that game was in Miami, where Miami controlled the clock for 45 minutes. Other than those two games, they have scored at least 31 points in every game. SF, for as bad as their offense has been, has scored at least 20 points in all but one game this year. They haven’t played anybody close to as good as Indy this year. Indy seems to always get to 30+ points and it’s hard to believe SF can get to more than 17 points against a solid Indy defense. If that is the case it will be tough for SF to cover this game. INDIANAPOLIS 33 SAN FRANCISCO 14

NY JETS -3.5 Miami 40.5

The Jets made easy work of the Raiders in their 38-0 win. They rushed for 316 yards at 5.9ypr and passed for 8.2yps to average 6.4yppl. They did allow the Raiders to average 6.3ypr but just 4.4yps for a total of 5.1yppl. The Jets certainly did their part to deserve this win but their first 14 points came on two drives of four yards each thanks to the first two of four turnovers by the Raiders in the game. Miami blew a 24-3 lead over the Saints in their 46-34 loss but a closer look at the numbers shows they weren’t as impressive as the final score looked. Miami was out rushed 5.1ypr to 4.6ypr and out passed 6.4yps to 5.1yps. The fact they held NO to just 6.4yps is impressive. Overall they were out gained 5.9yppl to 4.8yppl. They forced four NO turnovers, which aided their big lead. For Miami 17 of their 34 points came on drives of 19 yards or less and another seven came on a 63 yard touchdown run for a one play drive. Have to give them credit for putting their offense in those situations but those aren’t plays that will continue to happen or proof that they can take the ball the length of the field and score. Miami averages 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.2yps against 5.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl overall. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr but 7.1yps against 6.9yps and 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl. The Jets average 5.1ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 5.2yps against 6.1yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 151-77-7 as long as they are getting at least 3.5 points in this game. Numbers favor the Jets by five points and predict about 41 points. The Jets lost their final game of the season here to Miami last year and won the previous two years but by just three points in each game. Too many key injuries on both teams for me to decide but I will lean towards Miami. NY JETS 23 MIAMI 21

DETROIT -4 St Louis 44

Detroit is off their bye week following a 26-0 shutout at GB. In that game they were without Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, who both hope to be back this week. The Rams were throttled at home by the Colts. As usual, the Rams ran the ball very well, gaining 155 yards at 5.2ypr. But they only passed for 4.0yps and averaged 4.6yppl. They allowed the Colts to rush for 156 yards at 6.0ypr and average 6.9yps for a total of 6.5yppl. The Rams continue to run the ball well, averaging 4.4ypr against 3.9ypr but just 4.9yps against 5.9yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. The defense has been the sore spot for the Rams. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.4yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. Detroit averages just 5.0yps against 5.6yps and 4.5yppl against 4.9yppl. Their defense hasn’t been any better than the Rams, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.3yps against 6.9yps and 6.2yppl against 5.7yppl. The Rams qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 548-416-30, 119-51-8 and 456-299-21. Numbers favor Detroit by six points and predict about 43 points. The Rams offense and defense are bad but slightly better than Detroit. Between these teams, they only do one thing well, and that’s rushing the ball and it’s just the Rams that do that. I would like to take St. Louis in this game but I’m not into taking bad teams and hoping for things to work out. They may be the lesser of two evils but I will just lean their way. ST LOUIS 23 DETROIT 20

DALLAS -9.5 Seattle 46

Dallas defeated on overrated Atlanta team last week pretty handily. They averaged just 4.1ypr while allowing Atlanta 4.8ypr but threw the ball for 9.6yps while holding Atlanta to just 4.5yps and averaged 7.0yppl to just 4.6yppl for Atlanta. Seattle looked horrible in their last game before their bye week. They were blown out by Arizona, 27-3. In that game they were out rushed by a bad Arizona rushing team, 2.4ypr to 1.3ypr and out passed 6.3yps to 3.3yps, including allowing five sacks. Overall they were out gained 4.8yppl to 2.8yppl. Seattle averages just 3.5ypr against 3.8ypr and just 5.5yps against 6.2yps for a total of 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Dallas continues to thrive on offense, averaging 5.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.8yps against 6.3yps and 6.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 10.5 points and predict about 44 points. Dallas has averaged about 30 points at home this year while Seattle hasn’t topped 17 points on the road and in that game they scored 17 points at Indy, they got two late scores after they were down 34-3. Cowboys defeated Seattle here last year 34-9. DALLAS 30 SEATTLE 17

SAN DIEGO -16.5 Oakland 41.5

What can we say about Oakland. Apparently, they came into their game last week against the Jets will a little too much confidence. They were blown out 38-0 and allowed the Jets to rush for 316 yards at 5.9ypr. They did average 6.3ypr themselves. They allowed the Jets to average 8.2yps and averaged just 4.4yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.4yppl to 5.1yppl. The Chargers finally looked like the Chargers of old, albeit against a bad Chiefs team. They out passed KC 8.9yps to 2.7yps and 6.1yppl to 3.3yppl overall. Oakland is clearly a bad team and their numbers spell that out. They average just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.5yps against 5.8yps and 4.1yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. The Chargers still don’t run the ball well, averaging just 3.1ypr against 4.0ypr but they average 7.4yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense they allow 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. Oakland qualifies in my turnover table, which is 400-256-22. Numbers favor SD by 15 points and predict about 45 points. The Chargers have defeated the Raiders six straight times here in SD and have not allowed Oakland to score more than 14 points in any of those games. The Raiders managed 14 points at home in their first game this year against SD but haven’t topped more than 13 points since. SD has scored at least 23 points in every game this year. While the Chargers defense hasn’t been good, they haven’t allowed more than 13 points to an average to below average offense this year. I’ll lean towards Oakland because there is some value and the situation, but it’s a weak lean. SAN DIEGO 27 OAKLAND 13

TENNESSEE -3 Jacksonville 45

Both teams come off their bye weeks. Tennessee badly needed the bye week following their 59-0 blow out loss at NE in the snow. In that game they passed for -7 yards but did rush for 193 yards at 5.4ypr. Jacksonville came off an OT victory over lowly St. Louis. They out rushed the Rams 4.4ypr to 3.1ypr and out passed them 7.1yps to 5.9yps for a total of 5.9yppl to 4.9yppl. Jacksonville averages a healthy 4.6ypr against 4.0ypr but just 6.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. For the Titans, they also rush the ball well, gaining 5.3ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.0yps against 5.7yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense allows just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but 7.5yps against 7.1yps for a total of 5.9yppl against 5.8yppl. Vince Young will get the start in this game. While I don’t believe Tennessee can win long term with Vince Young, he may provide a temporary spark for this team with his athletic ability. Tennessee qualifies in winless situations, which are 86-39-6 and 21-3-1. They also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 400-256-22. Tennessee also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 151-77-7. Numbers favor Tennessee by only a ½ point before accounting for the situations and predict about 49 points. Rasheen Mathis is out for Jacksonville and he’s an important part of the Jacksonville secondary. Tennessee has played just two home games this year and their schedule has been tough, playing Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, NE, Jets, Houston and Jacksonville, who they lost to. I will give them one more shot. I like it when I have fundamental, technical and contrarian situations in their favor. TENNESSEE 30 JACKSONVILLE 17

ARIZONA -10 Carolina 41

Arizona played a good game at the Giants last week in their upset of New York. They were out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.1ypr but out passed the Giants 5.7yps to 5.5yps. They forced four turnovers of the Giants, which helped their cause. Carolina lost at home to Buffalo, 20-9 but they dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. Four key Carolina turnovers did them in and allowed Buffalo to score 17 of those 20 points on drives of 27 yards or less. Carolina out rushed Buffalo 116 to 53 and 4.6ypr to 1.8ypr. They out passed them 309 yards to 114 yards and 6.7yps to 4.8yps. Overall they out gained Buffalo 425 yards to 167 yards and 6.0yppl to 3.1yppl. Carolina is now average running the ball, gaining 4.4ypr against 4.4ypr but they struggle to throw the ball, averaging just 5.3yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 5.4yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl so they are playing good defense. Arizona still can’t run the ball, averaging just 3.0ypr against 4.1ypr but they are defending the rush very well, allowing 3.0ypr against 3.9ypr. They are just better than average throwing the ball, gaining 6.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl overall to make them average on offense. They allow just 6.4yps against 6.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.6yppl to make them well above average on defense. Carolina qualifies in my turnover table, which is 400-256-22. Numbers favor Arizona by 12 points and predict about 40 points. Carolina has played good enough defense and Arizona’s offense has been average this year but the Arizona defense has surprised this year. Arizona hasn’t won a home game by more than seven points this year but Carolina likes to run the ball and that’s what Arizona stops the best. Lean to Carolina but that’s it. ARIZONA 24 CAROLINA 17

NY Giants -1 PHILADELPHIA 44

The Giants committed four turnovers in their loss to Arizona last week. Statistically they played the game pretty even, averaging 5.0yppl to 4.8yppl for Arizona but the turnovers really hurt the Giants. Philly only averaged 4.7yppl last week while allowing Washington 4.5yppl. They were out passed 5.0yps to 4.8yps. While they won the game easily, 27-17, they forced Washington into four turnovers. For Philly, 13 of their 27 points came on drives of six yards or less. They scored their other 14 points on a long pass and a long run. Definitely have to give them credit for the big plays and perhaps they shut it down a bit after the big lead but they certainly didn’t build that lead on long drives. The Giants average 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr and 7.4yps against 6.4yps for a total of 6.0yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.3yps against 5.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. Philly averages just 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.0yps against 5.4yps and 4.4yppl against 4.8yppl. Giants qualify in my turnover table, which is 400-256-22. Numbers favor the Giants by ½ point before the situation and predict about 55 points. Giants have won four straight regular season games in Philly with three of those four games totaling at least 49 points. Philly has played one game against an above .500 team and were blown out by the best team in the NFC, New Orleans, 48-22. The Giants have split with Dallas and New Orleans on the road (above .500 teams) but totaled 64 and 75 points in each of those games. The Giants can move the ball on a consistent basis much better than Philly as Philly has struggled to move the ball with any type of consistency. Their scores have come on big plays. I like the Giants and the over in this game. NY GIANTS 33 PHILADELPHIA 26

NEW ORLEANS -10 Atlanta 54.5

I’ve been saying all year Atlanta is a little overrated so far this year and it showed up last week at Dallas. Atlanta did out rush Dallas 4.8ypr to 4.1ypr but were badly out passed 9.6yps to 4.5yps and out gained overall 7.0yppl to 4.6yppl. The Saints fell behind Miami 24-3 but didn’t panic and were able to fight back and not only win but cover the game with their 46-34 win. Part of the reason they didn’t panic is because the Miami scores were not on long sustained drives. Aided by four NO turnovers, 17 of Miami’s 34 points came on drives of 19 yards or less and another seven came on a one play drive with a 68 yard run by Ricky Williams. The Saints out rushed Miami 5.1ypr to 4.6ypr, 6.4yps to 5.1yps and 5.9yppl to 4.8yppl. Atlanta has improved running the ball but still averaging just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr but they do throw the ball well, averaging 6.7yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. The Saints average 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.9yps against 5.8yps and 6.3yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 4.1ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. NO qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 179-95-13. Numbers favor NO by 15.5 points and predict about 60 points. NO has won five straight in NO (2005 game was played in SA). Saints have won every game by at least 12 points this year. They have scored 45 or more point in four games. I like the Saints and the over in this game. There is no reason NO can’t get to 35 points in this game and if they do that, we can’t lose the side and total. Four of those six games have totaled 70 points or more. Atlanta has played two teams that are currently above .500 and lost both of those games by 16 points. No reason to get in the way of the Saints train at this point in the season. NEW ORLEANS 40 ATLANTA 24

Pointwise Phone Service

4* NY GIANTS

3* INDY, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS, CAROLINA

2* HOUSTON, CHICAGO

DR BOB

3 Star Selection
BUFFALO 23 Houston (-3.5) 19

Houston has always been an inconsistent team and the Texans are certainly due for a letdown after winning consecutive games for the first time this season. Houston is just 14-25-1 ATS after a victory in their history, including 4-16 ATS on the road after a win. Houston also applies to a negative 76-163-4 ATS scheduling situation and Buffalo comes into this game with plenty of confidence after consecutive wins over the Jets and Panthers. Home dogs are good bets when playing with confidence and the Bills apply to a very good 89-36-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation that is an even better 35-8-1 ATS if the home dog is coming off back-to-back wins. A 21-1 ATS subset of that angle applies to this game and Buffalo also applies to a 50-24-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that plays on home dogs when facing a team with a winning record that has a bad defense. That angle certainly makes sense, as road favorites with a bad defense have always been bad bets. Houston has allowed 5.9 yards per play for the season (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense) and the Texans have given up 5.6 yppl in every game except against the feeble Raiders' offense. Buffalo is a bad offensive team, but their 0.8 yppl worse than average offensive rating is the same as Houston's defensive rating, so the Bills should move the ball at a decent rate.

Buffalo has just an average defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), but the Bills' strength is in pass defense (5.2 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.1 yppp) and that matches up well against a pass-heavy Texans offense that hasn't been able to run the ball.

My math model favors Houston by just 2 points, so we have a bit of line value to go along with the very strong technical analysis favoring the Bills. I'll take Buffalo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -115 odds or better.

2 Star Selection
Jacksonville 25 TENNESSEE (-3.0) 20

Bye weeks usually help struggling teams regain their footing a bit and bad teams tend to refocus themselves during their week off, but the positive trends associated with betting on bad teams off a bye are only for underdogs. For the 0-6 Titans to be favored by 3 points in this game is simply ridiculous. Tennessee may have been 13-3 last season, but this team is nothing like last year's team and I didn't think they would be. I actually had the Titans pre-season rating at +0.6 points, which is basically an average team. I had Jacksonville's pre-season rating at -0.8, so I would have favored Tennessee by just 4 points had this game been played in week 1. Since then the Titans have gone 0-6 and proven to be worse than an average team while Jacksonville is slightly worse than average as I expected them to be. Tennessee's stats actually aren't that bad for a winless team, as I rate the Titans' offense at just 0.2 yards per play worse than average for the season while their defense has been only 0.2 yppl worse than average too (6.1 yppl allowed to a schedule of good offensive teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). Poor special teams play and at -10 turnover margin is why the Titans are winless. The turnover margin is not likely to be as bad going forward - although with Vince Young at quarterback they're still likely to turn the ball over more than their opponents - but special teams don't appear to be getting any better and they've cost the Titans just over 2 points per game in field position.

While Tennessee isn't as bad as their record, the Titans are worse now than they were a few weeks ago, as they've been forced to start two rookie cornerbacks in place of injured veterans Nick Harper and Cortland Finnegan, who is also one of the best corners in run support in the league. Tennessee's defense was actually very good the first 3 games with all of their starters, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team, but Finnegan was hurt in game 3 and hasn't played since and Harper joined him on the bench in week 6. In two games without Finnegan, but with Harper, the Titans allowed 6.1 yppl to Jacksonville and Indy, who would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team, so the loss of Finnegan resulted in the unit going from 0.7 yppl better than average to 0.1 yppl worse than average. The loss of Harper made things even worse, as Harper is the best pass defending corner on the team and one of the better corners in the league last year, when he allowed just 6.0 yards per pass as the defender of record. In week 6 when both Finnegan and Harper were out the Titans lost 0-59 to New England and gave up 626 yards at 8.5 yppl and it was actually over 9 yppl when Tom Brady was in the game. Harper probably will miss another game or two and there is a chance that Finnegan might play, but he was limited in practice on Thursday and probably wouldn't be 100% if he did play. The Titans enter this game with a defense that I conservatively rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average (although based on that one game in New England that could be way too low). Jacksonville is 0.2 yppl better than average for the season, but their rushing attack has struggled the last two games without RG Mo Williams, who is a very good run blocker. The Jaguars are still average offensively even if Williams misses a 3rd consecutive game (he's questionable), so they should move the ball well in this game as they did in their 37-17 home win over the Titans in week 4 (445 yards at 6.7 yppl in that win).

I mentioned that Tennessee's offense has been 0.2 yppl worse than average this season, but the offense is likely going to be worse with Vince Young getting the start at quarterback. Young has been only 0.2 yards per pass play worse then Kerry Collins over their careers, but Young has a career interception percentage of 4.2%, which is incredibly high (the league average this year is 2.9%). Jacksonville is 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively and will be about 0.2 yppl worse than that if top CB Mathis doesn't play due to a broken index finger. If I assume Mathis does not play then my math projects the Titans with 353 yards at 5.7 yppl. However, the math predicts Jacksonville with 363 total yards at 5.8 yppl and gives the Jaguars a 2.2 points edge in projected turnovers (Young is turnover prone and Jags quarterback Garrard is not (2.0% lifetime interceptions and just 3 in 6 games this season for 1.4%)). Jacksonville also has an edge in special teams, as the Jaguars are above average in that regard. Add it all up and I get Jacksonville by 5 points. I have no doubt that the Titans will come out fired up, but I just don't think they're good enough to win with Young at quarterback and with two rookie corners. The Titans do apply to a pretty good 193-124-8 ATS angle that plays on losing teams that have an ATS record that is 4 games or more below .500, but that angle will only keep me from making this a bigger play. I'll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

2 Star Selection
NEW ORLEANS (-10.0) 33 Atlanta 17

New Orleans suffered a letdown last week and they still managed to come from behind and cover the spread in Miami. The Saints are now 6-0 ATS and I see no reason why that streak will end at home on Monday Night Football. The Saints' offense is averaging 40 points per game and the only two games in which they did not score 45 points or more were against the Jets and Bills, the two best pass defenses that the Saints have faced. Atlanta does not have a good pass defense (6.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team), so I don't see Drew Brees being stopped in this game. The Saints also have a good rushing attack and Atlanta is worse than average defending the run too (4.8 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average team).

The Falcons have a reputation for having a good offense, but that unit is actually barely better than average with 5.4 yards per play coming against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. New Orleans, meanwhile, has a good defense has allowed 4.9 yppl this season and rates at 0.5 yppl better than average.

My math model favors New Orleans by 13 points and the Saints apply to a very good 67-15-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 14-1 ATS when applying to favorites of more than 7 points. Atlanta's loss last week may have them fired up to play well tonight (they're 5-1 ATS after a loss), but winning teams that are coming off a loss are just 18-44-1 ATS as Monday night visitors, including 12-39-1 ATS if the home team has a win percentage of .400 or higher. New Orleans, meanwhile, is now a perfect 10-0 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of more than 3 points, so they're not the type of team to let up. I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Denver 21 BALTIMORE (-3.5) 20

Denver is once again an underdog despite being undefeated and coming off wins in their last 3 games (all as dogs) over Dallas, New England and San Diego. Baltimore is another good challenge for the Denver, but the Broncos are a better team than the Ravens. Denver is just average moving the ball on offense (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but quarterback Kyle Orton has not thrown an interception all year (his lone pick was on a hail mary pass to end the half in week 5). Orton should have a good game against a horrible Ravens' secondary that misses injured CB Samari Rolle. Baltimore has given up 7.2 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would average 6.3 yppp against an average team) and the Ravens are 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively overall (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) even with their good run defense.

The Ravens are winning because of their offense this season, as that unit has generated an impressive 6.1 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team, but Denver's defense is considerably better than that. The Broncos' quick and aggressive stop unit has yielded just 4.4 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team and they limited good offensive teams Dallas, New England, and San Diego to just 4.9 yppl in their last 3 games (those teams would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team).

As you can see, the Broncos have an advantage regardless of which team has the ball and Baltimore's special teams are just as bad as Denver's special teams. With Denver being the better team there is certainly value in taking 3 1/2 points in this game. Once again, that line is saying that Denver is the inferior team in this game and that just isn't the case. My math model favors the Broncos by 4 1/2 points and my other model, which tends to deviate less from the actual line, favors Baltimore by just 2 points. Both models give Denver a 60% chance of covering at +3 1/2 points, but I'll resist making the Broncos a Best Bet in this game because of a 33-6 ATS situation and a 56-24-3 ATS statistical indicator that both favor the Ravens. Those angles will only keep me from making Denver a Best Bet, but I'll consider Denver a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more. By the way, I realize that Baltimore is 45-21-2 ATS as a home favorite, but they're 0-4 ATS as a home favorite against teams that are 4 games or more above .500 and have a win percentage of .750 or higher. In other words, Baltimore only dominated mediocre and bad teams at home.

Strong Opinion
Carolina 16 ARIZONA (-10.0) 21

If Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme stops throwing 2.2 interceptions per game the Panthers would be a pretty good team. Delhomme has thrown 89 interceptions in 87 career starts, which is bad, but the Panthers would be about 5 points per game better if Delhomme starts to thrown interceptions at his normal rate, and he's certainly much more likely to throw closer to 1 pick per game than 2. The Panthers are a decent team when they're not turning it over 3.5 times per games, as their offense is 0.5 yards per play worse than average with Delhomme under center while the Panthers' defense is 0.4 yppl better than average, allowing just 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Arizona is surprisingly just average offensively, averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team and their 22.7 points average is nothing special. I expect Carolina to defend the Cardinals pretty well in this game, which makes covering as a double-digit dog a lot easier to do.

The Panthers' biggest problem will be moving the ball against a very good Arizona defense that's allowed just 5.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit. My math model projects Arizona with a 331 yards to 248 yards edge and for the Cardinals to have a 0.6 turnover differential (on average) with Delhomme's predicted interceptions at 1.4. Special teams have been horrible for Carolina and the Cardinals have a pretty significant advantage in that department and my math favors Arizona by 12 points in this game. However, Carolina applies to a solid 111-53-1 ATS contrary angle that plays on teams with horrible point spread records and Arizona applies to a negative 49-93-3 ATS big favorite letdown situation coming off their upset win against the Giants. I'll consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more based on the strong technical analysis.

The math model chance to cover listed below is based on the historical performance of my model for each difference from the line and does not take into account key numbers or any situational analysis, which may favor the opposite side (as has been the case numerous times this season). Please read my full analysis of a game to find out what my final prediction is. All games not part of the Best Bet email can be found on the site in the free analysis section.

BRYAN LEONARD

NFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH

New York at Philadelphia

You can surely make a case that the Giants are the most overrated team in the NFL. Their five victories were against Washington, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland. The only winning team in the bunch were the Cowboys and the Giants needed a plus four turnover advantage to win that game by just two points. The last two weeks New York lost badly to the Saints and Cardinals, two teams that can put points on the board. In fact, Drew Brees lit up this Giants secondary for 12.0 yards per passing attempt. Considering that the Eagles are averaging 27.2 points per game this season the New York defense could be in for another long night.

Brian Westbrook has been ruled out so this line has moved three points. Really? Isn't Westbrook out every other week or so the past few seasons. Sure he's a good player but the drop-off to McCoy is slight if any at all. Therefore we're getting three additional points based on false perception. Defensively Philadelphia has allowed more than 17 points just once all season. Only one of their last five opponents they faced at home tallied more than 14 points. This is a team with the better players on both sides of the ball yet they are a slight home underdog here. The Eagles lost to the Giants at home each of the past four seasons but this year Philadelphia is the better team.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

The Boss

500% "Untouchable Play" Arizona
300% "Bookie Buster Blowout Parlay" Arizona, Indy, Houston
200% "Dog Pound" Denver
100% "Silent Assassins" Jacksonville, Minny, San Diego

#1 Sports

Minnesota + 3

BIG TIME

GUARANTEED DIVISIONAL LOCK OF THE YEAR

SAN DIEGO -16.5

BEN BURNS

8* Blue Chip - Titans/Jags Under
9* Top NFC Play - Carolina
9* Non Conf TOM - SF/Ind Under
9* Personal Fav - Baltimore
10* Top AFC East Tot - Jets/Dolpins Under

Double Dragon

Colts -12
Cowboys -9
Giants -1
Broncos +4
Vikings +3
Jaguars +3

5DimeSports

Houston @ Buffalo

3.5 Dime Play Take Houston -3 (buy the half)

First off if you can't get -3, this is a good play at -4, but for the records I am at -3. Andre Johnson, man he is a beast, 16.7 ypc average and 634 yards with 4 TDs. I can't see the Bills not letting him breakout in this one. Plus Slaton has picked it up the past couple of games and that is what they have been missing. With both of them on the field and doing well, we can expect Schaub to add to his 16 passing TDs that he already has. Not to mention Owen Daniels, man this guy is good. Between Johnson and Daniels they account for 9 of Schaub's 16 TDs. This team is becoming more versitle every week. I am definetly not convinced that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid QB in the NFL. He definetly has received a good amount of playing time in the past season, since he played for Carson Palmer when he was out last year. But still, its Ryan Fitzpatrick and right now he's sitting on a 44.7 completion percentage. T.O. did not practice this week and his injury is not listed, but it's not like he has been a factor this season anyways. The Bills have only one rushing TD this season from all of their running backs and that's not going to cut it with Houston's powerfull offense coming to town. Buy the half but not thinking it will really matter.

Bob Valentino

25 DIME COWBOYS

Kelso

200 Unit Arizona -10