BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 NFL " BLOOD BATH" OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens -3
This is the week that Denver goes down in flames. Yes, we've bet against Denver en route to their 6-0 record, but we are not going to get burnt again here Sunday. The Ravens are the best team that Denver has faced all season, and this will be their toughest game by far. The Ravens are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Bengals and Vikings. Both of those games came down to the wire, and both they lost in the final seconds. In fact, the all 3 of the Ravens' losses this season have come down to the final seconds when you throw their 21-27 loss at New England in there. This is one pissed off team, and they will come out very hungry Sunday. The Ravens have had a bye week to steam over their recent losses, and you can bet this team will be ready to go when they hit the field at home Sunday. Meanwhile, Denver has also had a bye week to listen to the media and soak in all the compliments. We have no doubt the Broncos come out flat this weekend, and the Ravens pounce on them early. This one will be over by halftime folks, and that's why it's our 2009 "BLOOD BATH" of the year in the NFL. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by 14.0 points/game at home this year. The Broncos are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The home team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series. Take Baltimore and lay the points.
5* Wiseguy NFC Sunday Afternoon PARLAY (Side) on Carolina Panthers +10
This is a revenge game for the Panthers after getting embarrassed by the Cardinals at home in the playoffs last year. Look for Carolina to come out with their best effort of the season Sunday. The Panthers keep shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers, but we feel that everything will come together this week as they come out very hungry and focused to beat Arizona. Yes, the Panthers lost 9-20 to Buffalo last week, but they never should have lost that game. Carolina outgained the Bills 425-167 in the loss, not numbers you would expect to see with the Panthers losing by 11 points. This team is very explosive offensively when they don't kill themselves with turnovers. They'll get back to running the football which is what they do best, and using timely play-action passes to keep the Cardinals off balance. This is a big letdown spot for Arizona after 3 straight wins over the Texans, Seahawks and Giants. They will also be thinking about how they dominated Carolina last year in the playoffs, and they'll feel like they only need to show up to win Sunday. Carolina will take advantage and snatch away this game early. Carolina has won 3 straight road games over the Cardinals dating back to 2003. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Panthers and the points.
5* Wiseguy NFC Sunday Afternoon PARLAY (Total) on Panthers/Cardinals OVER 41
We also love this OVER Sunday as both team score plenty of points to push the Total OVER 41 points. The reason the books have set this total so low is because Arizona has been playing great defense, and Carolina has had a hard time scoring points. But the Panthers are having no problem moving the ball as they put up over 320 yards of total offense against the Bucs two weeks ago and over 420 yards of total offense against the Bills last week. Look for Carolina to finally start putting the ball in the end zone Sunday against a team they cannot wait to get revenge on following their loss to the Cardinals in the playoffs last year. Carolina will be 100% focused for this game, and it will show with their execution offensively. Arizona will get their points, but the defense will take a step back this week after back-to-back dominant performances against the Seahawks and Giants the last two weeks. In the last 5 meetings in this series, Carolina and Arizona have combined to score 44 or more points 4 times. The last 2 meetings saw 46 and 50 combined points, respectively. Carolina has scored 20 or more points in 5 of their last 6 meetings with Arizona. The OVER is 6-1 in the Panthers' last 7 road games. The OVER is 12-4 in the Cardinals' last 16 home games, and the OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER 41 points.
4* on Browns/Bears UNDER 40
Cleveland simply cannot score, but they have been playing solid defense which will keep this one UNDER the number. The Bears have hit a wall offensively, scoring a mere 12 points/game in their last 2 games, both losses to the Bengals and Falcons. Look for Chicago to keep struggling against Cleveland's defense, but also look for the Bears to get back on track defensively after giving up way too many points and yards the last two weeks. This defensive unit will take it personal and hold the Browns to 10 points or less Sunday. That shouldn't be a problem considering Cleveland is scoring just 10.3 points/game this season, including 7.2 points/game on the road. The Bears are 41-18 UNDER (+21.2 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. Chicago has been committing too many turnovers lately which have led to easy points for their opposition. The Bears will put an emphasis on taking care of the ball this week, which will lead to more conservative play-calling and a heavy dose of Matt Forte as they try and get back to running the football, which is always what they have done best. Chicago is simply using their "new toy" too much in Jay Cutler, and he is making too many mistakes. The conservative play-calling Sunday will be a big reason why this one stays UNDER the number. The Bears are 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. The UNDER is 19-9-1 in Cleveland's last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Take the UNDER 40 points here.
4* on Seattle Seahawks +10
The Seattle Seahawks are showing excellent value Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. First off, Seattle is coming off their worst loss of the season to the Arizona Cardinals and they have had an extra week to prepare for Dallas coming off a bye. The Cowboys put a lot of emphasis on last week's home win over the Atlanta Falcons, saying it was their make-or-break game. That only means that they will have an emotional letdown following their biggest victory of the season. As a result of both team's performances in their last game, this line has been inflated and we'll take advantage with the double-digit dog Seahawks. Seattle is primarily a passing team, and the Cowboys are terrible against the pass. The Seahawks are throwing for 220 passing yards/game and completing 61.1% of their passes. Dallas is allowing a 61.5% completion percentage and 238 passing yards/game. That means the Seahawks should have no problem moving the ball through the air. The Seahawks are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Seattle and the points.
4* on New York Jets -3
It's revenge time for the Jets after losing to the Dolphins 27-31 on Monday Night Football just 3 weeks ago. They lost on a last-second touchdown by Ronnie Brown after playing their hearts out for 4 quarters. The Jets did whatever they wanted to offensively, but could not get the key stops they need down the stretch to win on the road. Look for this Jets' defense to "man up" Sunday and take it upon themselves to shut down the Dolphins. This defense responded well following that loss, and they'll take another step forward Sunday. This New York defense allowed just 13 points in regulation to Buffalo and only 296 total yards in their 13-16 overtime loss. Mark Sanchez gave away that game with 5 interceptions. The Jets then held Oakland scoreless on the road last week, giving up just 263 total yards and forcing 4 turnovers. The Jets are back to playing the way they were meant to play, which is running the football and playing sound, aggressive defense. New York has rushed for 318 and 316 yards in their last 2 games, respectively. Expect a heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene as the Jets run wild on this Miami defense. The Dolphins are emotionally spent right now after blowing a 24-3 lead at home to the Saints last week to lose 46-34. They won't be recovered in time to meet the effort they get from this hungry Jets' squad Sunday. Miami is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992. The Dolphins 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=150 rushing yards/game since 1992. Take the Jets and lay the points.
4* on Texans/Bills OVER 41
This is a very low total for a Texans' game, a team that owns one of the best offenses in the league but also one of the worst defenses. Look for the Texans to light it up again offensively behind the league's leading passer in QB Matt Schaub who has thrown for 2,074 yards and 16 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. Houston will be up against a banged-up Bills' defense that gave up 425 yards of total offense to the Panthers last week. That makes back-to-back games the Bills have given up more than 400 yards of total offense. The only reason they didn't give up more points is because the Jets and Panthers committed 10 turnovers combined! Houston won't be settling for field goals or making the same mistakes, instead they will be converting touchdowns and extra points all game long. Buffalo has to get their offense going this week against a Texans' defense that is allowing 25.3 points/game on the road and 362 total yards/game away from home. Houston gives up 5.6 yards/carry on the road, and the Bills should find huge plays in the running game Sunday which will set up big plays in the passing game to T.O. and Lee Evans. Houston is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 41 points here.
4* on Raiders/Chargers OVER 41
The Chargers will take care of most of this OVER on their own, just like they did last week against Kansas City. Nobody can deny that San Diego has one of the best offenses in the league, but they are hurting defensively with several key injuries, most importantly to DT Jamal Williams who has been lost for the season with a Tricep injury. That leaves the Chargers soft up the middle, which is why they have given up nearly 140 rushing yards/game this season. Oakland is primarily a running team, and they should be able to move the ball on the ground very effectively Sunday. But the Raiders will not be able to tame this San Diego offense that has put 23 or more points in every game this season. The Chargers score 26.8 points/game on average this year, while the Raiders allow 25.3 points/game overall and 27.2 points/game on the road. In their first meeting of the season back in Week 1, the Chargers won 24-20 as both teams did basically whatever they wanted to offensively. The Chargers put up 366 total yards in the win while the Raiders put up 317 total yards in the loss. Expect the Chargers to put up at least 35 points Sunday, while the Raiders score enough to push this one OVER the number. San Diego has scored 34, 28, 21 and 34 points in their last 4 home meetings with Oakland, respectively. In fact, the Charges have scored 21 or more points in their last 10 overall meetings with Oakland. The 24 points they put up in their first meeting with Oakland this year was their lowest point total in their last 5 head-to-head meetings with the Raiders. They are averaging 28.8 points/game in those 5 meetings. The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Take the OVER 41 points here.
4* on Vikings/Packers OVER 47
In what will be a similar point total to the 30-23 Monday Night victory by the Vikings over the Packers earlier this season, we'll side with the OVER 47 points in the second meeting between these NFC North rivals in 2009. The Packers have been unstoppable of late offensively, and the Vikings have been as well despite stopping themselves last week against Pittsburgh with costly turnovers deep in Steelers' territory. Green Bay has scored 21 or more points in every game this season, and they average 26.8 points/game on the year. The Vikings have scored 27 or more points in 6 of their 7 games this season, and they average 29.4 points/game on the year. Both teams are very balanced as the Vikings put up 354 total yards/game while the Packers put up 376 total yards/contest. There simply won't be enough stops Sunday to keep this one under the number. The Vikings are 23-8 OVER (+14.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. The Packers are 27-11 OVER (+14.9 Units) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. The OVER is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The OVER is 7-2 in Vikings last 9 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 33-16-3 in Vikings last 52 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 21-9-1 in Packers last 31 games overall. The OVER is 21-7-1 in Packers last 29 vs. NFC. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the OVER 47 points in another shootout.
Al DeMarco
1ST HALF OF THE SEASON BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR
Cowboys
Stephen Nover
50 Dime Packers
20 Dime Ravens
5 Dime Texans
5 Dime Jets
5 Dime Seattle/Dallas Under
50 Dime Packers - Maybe the Vikings are better than the Packers. But they won't win this game. Home field usually is worth three or four points. In this matchup it's worth a touchdown.
This is one of the biggest regular-season games in Packer history thanks to Brett Favre returning to Lambeau Field. Many Green Bay fans believe Favre is the biggest traitor since Benedict Arnold for joining the Packers' biggest rival.
There's more to the setting than just a huge vocal, bloodthirsty following, though. The Vikings beat the Packers, 30-23, on carpet in their dome stadium in Week 4. This matchup is on grass.
It's Minnesota's fifth road game already. The Vikings have not had their bye yet. They just got through playing two physical AFC North teams to the wire, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Teams who just played the Steelers usually are extremely beat up. This is reflected in the pointspread mark the following week. Teams are 1-5 against the spread the next week after facing the Steelers.
The Packers had their bye three weeks ago. They followed that up with easy blowout wins against the Lions and Browns last week in which Aaron Rodgers got to rest for much of the fourth quarter.
The time off and easy opponents have allowed the Packers to shore up their offensive line. Mark Tauscher will be available to play if needed. He was last year's starting right tackle until suffering an injury.
Rodgers will negate Jared Allen and the other Vikings pass rushers with quick, short passes. He'll be able to take advantage of the Vkings missing their best secondary player, cornerback Antoine Winfield. There's a huge gap between Winfield and his backup replacements.
As well as Favre is playing this season, the Packers made the right choice in choosing Rodgers. Rodgers is on pace to throw for 30 touchdowns and 4,539 yards.
20 Dime Ravens - The Ravens are the better team, have more urgency and home-field advantage. All of this adds up to being worth more than a field goal.
The Ravens would be a lot higher favorite if this game were played four weeks ago when the Ravens were unbeaten and no one was believing in the Broncos.
Since then, though, the Broncos have stayed unbeaten while the Ravens have lost three in a row. Look at these losses, though. The Ravens were homered in a road loss to the Patriots. They lost to the Bengals on a touchdown pass by Carson Palmer with 27 seconds left and then lost two weeks ago to the Vikings after a valiant fourth-quarter comeback failed because of a missed field goal at the gun that should have been made in a dome stadium.
The Ravens could be 6-0, too, just like the Broncos. Then what would the line be? I guarantee it would be far higher than it is now.
Now the Ravens are coming off a bye. They are 6-1 against the spread following an off week. They desperately need this home game in the ultra-competitive AFC North where they are two games behind in the win column trailing both Pittsburgh and vastly improved Cincinnati. Denver has a commanding three-game lead in the weak AFC West Division. So this matchup is far more important to Baltimore.
Joe Flacco is having a Pro Bowl season. He's already accounted for six fourth-quarter touchdowns. The Broncos are much improved. But they are not an elite team. They beat Cincinnati on a fluke tipped pass. Their other big challenges - Dallas and New England - both came at home.
The Ravens have covered 19 of their last 27 games. They are well-balanced on offense and are tough on defense. They can be intimidating at home. Their major weakness is pass defense, which can't be exploited enough by Kyle Orton, who is a game manager rather than a vertical attack passer.
5 Dime Texans - I have no problem laying a short road number with Houston against Buffalo, a beat-up, dreg of a team with a journeyman, backup caliber quarterback as their starter.
This is the Texans' best team ever. I say that not only because their offense is explosive, but they have playmakers on defense now and their rush defense has greatly improved. Houston has held its last four opponents to an average of 2.6 yards per rush.
The Bills have no vertical passing attack with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback. He ranks with Josh Johnson, JaMarcus Russell and Derek Anderson as the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. Unlike the other three, Fitzpatrick doesn't even have the potential to make big plays.
The Bills need to run the ball. But their offensive line has a cluster injury problem. They are already on their fourth right tackle.
The Texans have a big-play offense. Matt Schuab is having a huge year. Andre Johnson is arguably the best wide receiver in football. He's been cleared to play after suffering a bruised lung last week.
Owen Daniels has emerged as arguably the best receiving tight end in the NFL and Steve Slaton is a dangerous runner out of the backfield and catching swing passes. The Bills rank last in run defense and will be without two of their better run defenders, injured tackle Kyle Williams and safety Donte Whitner.
Buffalo's other safety, Bryan Scott, is doubtful. Don't forget the Bills already have lost cornerback and return man Leodis McKelvin for the season.
5 Dime Jets - This is one of those rare times where I do put stock in NFL revenge. The Dolphins edged the Jets, 31-27, just three weeks ago on Monday night. The Dolphins won when Ronnie Brown ran for a touchdown with 10 seconds left.
The Dolphins embarrassed and befuddled the Jets with their wildcat formation, picking up 110 yards from it. The experience left Jets coach and defensive guru Rex Ryan fuming.
I fully expect the Jets to be much better prepared and highly motivated to stop the Dolphins this time. Calvin Pace was just coming off a four-game suspension then. He's now fully indoctrinated into Ryan's defense and had three sacks last week.
This will be Miami quarterback Chad Henne's first road start. He could be dealing with rain and swirling winds, something Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez already has experienced.
Jerricho Cotchery is expected to play after missing the last couple of games. He's been Sanchez's No. 1 target. His return will strengthen New York's passing attack, especially since deep threat Braylon Edwards has been added.
Miami has a youthful secondary that is banged-up. Linebacker Channing Crowder most likely won't play either because of a shoulder injury. Sanchez can take advantage with his full complement of receivers.
The Dolphins suffered a tough home loss to New Orleans last week blowing a 24-3 lead because they got gassed at the end. They still might not be physically and mentally right, where the Jets go their confidence back on the West Coast with an easy romp against the Raiders.
5 Dime Under Seattle/Dallas - Dallas' defense has gotten better. In their last four games, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 16.2 points. Demarcus Ware has recorded four sacks during the past two weeks.
The Seahawks' battered offensive line, down to their fourth-string left tackle, is going to have problems protecting immobile beat-up quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks lack a ground game to keep the Cowboys' defense honest ranking 28th in rushing.
Seattle only has broken the 19-point barrier once in its last five games.
Damon McIntosh, a 32-year-old street free agent, is the latest being called on to protect Hasselbeck's blind side.
On defense, though, the Seahawks are getting healthier. Jim Mora Jr. is a solid defensive coach and has had two weeks to game plan for the Cowboys. The Seahawks can rush the passer, too, ranking eighth in sacks.
The Seahawks get back on defense their best pass rusher, Patrick Kerney, and their top cover cornerback, Marcus Trufant. Both are scheduled to play after being out with injuries
David Banks
Texans
49ers
Dolphins
Jaguars
Packers
Royal Sports
10* Baltimore Ravens
Teddy Covers
5* Top New York Jets -3
4* Best Philadelphia Eagles PK
3* 49ers / Colts OVER 44.5 (-110)
3* Jacksonville Jaguars +3
Psychic
2 units Dallas -9.5
2 units Baltimore -3
3 units Carolina +10 (best bet)
3 units New York Giants 1 (best bet)
4 units Miami Dolphins +3.5 (major)
5 units Jacksonville +3 (NFL Underdog Game of the Year)
2 units New York Yankees
Tim Trushel
20* Green Bay
Carolina
Carolina Over
ATS Lock Club
6 units Giants -1
5 units Green Bay -3
5 units Indianapolis -13
4 units Arizona -10
ATS Financial
4 units Denver +3.5
3 units Dallas -9.5
Hoops
4 units Chicago +4.5
Vernon Croy
Sunday Afternoon NFL Smash
3* Take Minnesota
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Vikings are the more complete team here Sunday. The Vikings are very potent offensively because they have a well balanced offense the can move the ball through the air just as well as on the ground. The fact that the Vikings have a very good running game will allow Brett Farve to make big plays through the air. The Vikings are averaging 29 ppg on the road this season and they have completed 72.7% of their passes on the road. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Underdog is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games between these two teams and the road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games between these two teams. Take the Vikings ATS.
NORTHCOAST SPORTS
Dolphins at Jets
Pick: Jets -3
The Jets dominated this series going 13-4 SU & 13-2-2 ATS until the end of LY. MIA beat them in LY’s season finale to knock them out of the playoffs & followed that up by beating them 31-27 as a 3 pt HD on MNF just 3 wks ago. MIA had a 413-309 yd edge vs the Jets with 110 yds coming via the Wildcat which Jets players denounced as a bunch of gadgetry. MIA has a solid situational edge here as they are just 1 week removed from a bye while the Jets are coming home after their 3rd road game in 4 weeks & a long cross country flight back. After 3 bad games the Jets simplified the offense for Sanchez who had 143 yds (60%) with 1 TD as they rushed 316 yds (5.9) but lost RB Washington (462 rush/rec yds 5.3) for the year to a broken leg. MIA gave up 36 pts in the 2H LW getting outgained 302-159 & were outTOP’s by almost 7:00. The Jets will be very fired up for this rematch esp since this will be Henne’s 1st road start & in a hostile environment.
Doc's Sports
4 Unit Play. Green Bay over Minnesota
The return of Brett Favre to Green Bay will make this the marquee game of Week 8 in the NFL season. The Packers will enter this game at 4-2 and fresh off of two blowout victories the last two weeks. QB Favre and the Vikings suffered their first loss last week against Pittsburgh and that was a game they should have won. Turnovers did them in and Pittsburgh won that game by double digits. The Vikings do not play well in the outdoors and the weather in Wisconsin is starting to turn. Sunday’s forecast call for the weather to just be in the low forties and QB Favre has not played well in recent cold weather games. The fans want payback and they will get it in a big way. QB Rogers will get protection and thus be able to beat the Vikings with the deep ball with two of the best receivers in the league. GB wins and we collect big in the process as well. Green Bay 27, Minnesota 13.
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Now I am not suggesting the 6-0 Colts are going to lose this game outright mind you, but things have been far too easy this season for Indy, and I think today is the day they get tested.
San Francisco will turn back to Alex Smith to handle the QB duties, and he did look sharp in last week's comeback, but loss at Houston.
The Colts have won 15 straight regular season games, but remember this, they are just 3-6 against the spread as a home favorite since last season, and today's line is a tad inflated if you ask me.
Michael Crabtree will only get better with each week, and the Niners will be able to run the ball with frank Gore that is as long as they don't get jumped on early. I happen to think they WON'T get jumped on early, as I have a feeling the Colts will be taking this game a little lightly early on.
San Fran still owns positive spread numbers under the intense Mike Singletary, as they are 9-3-2 their last 14 games with the points. A closer look at that spread mark shows a 5-0-1 dog spread mark their last 6.
I like the 49ers to give the coasting Colts a bit of a test today.
Take the points, as 50 Dimer San Francisco covers this generous spot.
Craig Davis
50 Dime - RAVENS (absolutely buy the 1/2 point down, whether your line is -3, -3 1/2 or even -4. those numbers are all key numbers in the NFL)
BALTIMORE RAVENS - It's very rare you will see me follow up a 50-dime play on Sunday after I released one on Saturday, so that should tell you how much I love this game. I was absolutely ecstatic when I saw this line released with Baltimore as the favorite. Here we have an undefeated Denver team facing a Ravens team having lost three straight... and the Ravens are the favorites? You bet everyone is on the Broncos, and why shouldn't they be? Every week it seems as if we say, "this is the week Denver loses because they're really not that good." And every week the Broncos seem to prove the critics wrong, winning rather convincingly. Well, now it seems as if everyone has bought into the Denver Broncos... and if that isn't enough to scare you away from the Broncos, nothing will.
The Ravens are clearly better than their 3-3 record would indicate and the bye week couldn't have come at a better time. After starting the season firing on all cylinders (3-0 record), the Ravens have dropped three straight games, all by 6 points or less... so it's not like this team is getting blown off the field --- they've been very competitive in all 6 of their games this season. The two biggest shockers in Baltimore this season has to be the fact that this offense is 100x better than we thought it would be in the beginning of the season, but the defense hasn't been nearly as good as in past years... especially against the pass. What's going to be interesting to watch is the matchup between former Broncos CB Dominique Foxworth and WR Brandon Marshall. Foxworth spent the last few years in Denver, getting to work against Marshall in practice every day. As good as Marshall is, Foxworth knows his tendencies and should be able to do a good job of containing him.
I'm banking on the fact that Baltimore will keep Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter under wraps most of the game, forcing Kyle Orton to beat them on long second and third downs. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL in first down defense, and if they can play up to that level today, the Broncos will struggle on offense like they haven't struggled before. And please don't look at their recent game vs. San Diego as a measuring stick of how far this offense has come. Remember, Eddie Royal scored once on a punt return and once on a kick return, so their point total was a bit fabricated. I'm not saying they can't score on special teams again today, but the Ravens do a much better job than San Diego does in that department. Plus, I'm not sure it's fair to compare the Chargers pathetic defense with Baltimore's.
As for Baltimore's improved offense, it starts and stops with second-year QB Joe Flacco. As good as he was a rookie last year, leading his team to the AFC playoffs, Flacco has been even better this season hitting on 64% of his passes for 1674 yards and 11 TDs. Just the fact that Flacco has shown the ability to move the ball downfield with his arm has opened things up for RB Ray Rice. No one has been better than this guy over the last few weeks and there's nothing Denver's defense has shown me that would indicate they'll be able to slow Rice down. And the great thing about Rice and this offense is... if he's not getting the job done on the ground, they'll just turn him into a receiver out of the backfield --- instant offense. There is absolutely nothing Denver (or any other defense for that matter) will be able to do to stop Rice if he's clicking.
Denver's defense has been good all season and I'm not trying to take anything away from them, but they have yet to see a team that will rely on the screen pass as much as Baltimore has and will today. Now, if Baltimore lines up and tries to run the ball down Denver's throats... it's not going to work. But I have to believe Baltimore coaches and players used the week off to find every weakness this Denver defense has and exploit it.
Again, Baltimore has lost three straight. Can you really, honestly see them losing four in a row? I can't. Baltimore averages over 28 PPG at home while allowing just 14, and this team knows a loss today could prove devastating in the AFC North. Cincy and Pittsburgh are both 5-2 and a loss today for the Ravens would put them at 3-4, a full two games behind both teams. Baltimore is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. teams from the AFC. Denver is definitely capable of winning another road game here today, but obviously the "Cinderella run" has to end some time, and today is as good as any. Baltimore wins and delivers an ATS cover, 27-17.
Anthony Redd
75 Dime - Rams