Larry Ness
26* NY Jets - 7
The Jags and Jets are both 4-4. They both run the ball well and neither team is sure what to expect from their respective QBs. Jones-Drew has 737 yards rushing (5.1 YPC) and a league-high 11 TDs, despite rushing for only 48 yards in Weeks 4 and 5. While he's impressive, he'll face a Jets rush D which is solid, allowing 108.1 YPG (4.0 YPC). While€ Jones-Drew is a 'force,' the Jets own the NFL's top rushing offense, averaging 177.6 YPG (4.8 YPC), which is almost 40 YPG more than the Jags rush for. Also, Jones and now Greene (with Washington out) will run against a Jacksonville rush D which has allowed 119.8 YPG (4.3) but more importantly, was "blown away" in its last two road games (more on that later). Getting to the pass defenses, the Jags are awful defending the pass, allowing 68.6 percent completions 15 TDs and have just five INTs (100.2 opposing QB rating is third-worst in the NFL). Jax head coach Jack Del Rio switched to a 4-3 defense against the Chiefs after the 3-4 proved to be ineffective (an MAJOR understaement). The unit, which was called "insulting, ugly and embarrassing" by Del Rio after a 30-13 loss at Tennessee on November 1, turned in its best performance of the season against Kansas City, allowing 301 yards (only 60 on the ground) while recording three sacks. Bottom line is this, Jacksonville's eight sacks are the fewest in the NFL and I'll get to this defense's performance in its last two road games, shortly. As for the Jets, they are allowing only 54.1 percent completions (2nd-best in the league) and 165 YPG (also No. 2) with only five TDs and seven INTs. Let's look at Sanchez, who had a 4-1 ratio and became the first QB to ever win his first three starts. He had awful games vs the Saints (138 yards and three INTs) and Bills (119 yards and five INTs) but has bounced back with two solid efforts, since. He was a modest 9-of-16 with 143 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) in New York's 38-0 win pover the Raiders and then 20-of-35 for 265 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in that Week 8 loss to Miami (107.0 QB rating vs Oak and 100.3 vs Mia). Garrard has just six TD passes all season (three vs Tenn in Week 4) and five INTs but in his last four games, has one TD pass and four INTs. Let's look at those last four games. The Jags have lost 41-0 at Seattle and 30-13 at Tennessee, while beating the Rams 23-20 in OT and the Chiefs 24-21 (both at home). The Rams and Chiefs are both 1-7, so should we make a big deal out of three-point wins? Seattle and Tennessee are a combined 5-11 and look what the Jax D allowed. Hasselbeck and Young completed 33-of-48 passes (68.8%), while the Seahawks and Titans ran for 448 yards (5.0 YPC). Think the Jets No. 1 rushing attack will like what they see on film? Why can't Sanchez, with Cotchery finally healthy and Edwards seemingly happy (he's talking about staying with the Jets), do to the Jags' pass D what Hasslebeck and Young did? Go back again and take a close look at the Jags' last four games. Two, three-point wins over the Rams and Chiefs (at home!) plus just AWFUL efforts at Seattle and Tennessee. The last time we saw the Jets, they outgained the Dolphins 378-to-104 in yards but lost 30-25 because Ginn returned kicks of 100 and 101 for TDs while Taylor returned a fumble 48 yards for another. The Jets got last week off and a quick look at the NFL record book shows that the Jets are 7-2 SU and ATS off their bye week this decade. Both teams may be 4-4 but there is MUCH more than a TD difference between these two teams this Sunday.
Pointwise Phones
3* Jets, New Orleans, Detroit, KC
2* Miami, Cincy, KC/Oak Und
1* Clev
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket: Buffalo +7.5
Denver -3.5
Cincinnati +7
Carolina Over 43.5
Evan Altemus
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
5 units Dallas Cowboys -3 (GOM)
This selection is definitely a public play, but I feel like the wise guys and sharp money aren’t accounting for just how bad Green Bay is this year. I also don’t think that the public is accounting for the improvement that the Cowboys have made over the last few weeks. The biggest problem with Dallas to start the season was the play of Tony Romo. He simply held this team back in the first few weeks. They should have won against Denver and the NY Giants if not for poor performances by Romo. Meanwhile, Green Bay has been horrible against the best teams on their schedule, while beating up on the worst teams. The Packers have lost and been out played against the Vikings twice, Cincinnati, and they should have lost to Chicago. Green Bay simply is not a good team, but they have had the luxury of playing a relatively weak schedule so far. As a result, they have appeared better than they really are. In addition, the Packers are riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball. The biggest problem for Green Bay is their inability to protect Aaron Rodgers. They have given up the most sacks in the league, while not being able to pressure the quarterback themselves. Dallas significantly outplayed Green Bay last year at Lambeau Field, and there is no reason why they won’t dominate them again in this game. Dallas has all of the momentum, while Green Bay is slumping. This is a game with two teams heading in different directions. Look for the Cowboys to get a blowout win.
Tom Stryker
100% NFL Super Play of the Month
New York Jets -7
Pure Lock
Dallas -3
Joyce Sterling
10* St. Louis +13.5
Carolina +1
Pitt -7
Point Train
9-Unit GOM - New Orleans -13.5 over St. Louis
Undefeated New Orleans travels to 1-7 St. Louis and is less than two touchdown favorites?! Sign me up! St. Louis got their first victory against the Detroit Lions in their last game. In that game, the Rams scored a touchdown on a fake field goal and scored a touchdown with less than 2 minutes left to get the 7-point victory over the fellow 1-win Lions. This is a no-brainer. Take the NFL’s best offense against a the Rams’ #26 offense and #27 defense in a blowout.
New Orleans is 0-2 ATS in their last two games, winning by 8 and 10 points against well-known division opponents. St. Louis and New Orleans haven’t played since ’07 and are both completely different teams in 2009. The Saints have the #1 ranked offense in the NFL and averages 427 yards and 38 points per game this season. That’s not good news for the Rams, who rank near the bottom of every major defensive category this season.
In similar situations, St. Louis has faced three top-tier quarterbacks so far this season (GB –Rodgers, MIN- Favre, IND- Manning) and lost big each time. The Rams lost those three games by an average score of 39-11. Manning, Favre, and Rodgers completed 66% of their passes with 6 TD’s and 1 pick. More importantly, they were able to average 132 rushing YPG also.
New Orleans’ defense has been almost as impressive as their offense this season. The Saints ‘D’ has scored a touchdown in every game but one this season. Darren Sharper is tied for the league lead in interceptions and is one of the candidates for NFL defensive MVP midway through the season. The Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. St. Louis is just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 home games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Go with the Saints in a blowout.
RON RAYMOND
5* New England Patriots +3
ProLocks
40 Dime: Dallas Cowboys
10 Dime: Atlanta Falcons
RON RAYMOND
5* Bengals / Steelers Over 41.5
5* New England Patriots +3
GAMEDAY SPORTS
Two Team Teaser
3* JETS-1 with STEELERS-1
2* EAGLES +1
2* GREEN BAY +3
2* NEW ENG +3
Tim Trushel
20* Carolina
Carolina Over
Cincinnati
Detroit
DB Sports Consultants
10* Denver -3.5
10* New England +3
8* Carolina +1.5
7* New Orleans -13.5
6* NY Jets -6.5
6* Dallas / Green Bay OVER 47.5
5* Kansas City +2
5* Pittsburgh -7
5* Pittsburgh / Cincinnati OVER 41.5
SportsBook Breakers
4* New Orleans -13.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Rams have been playing teams closer lately, even winning a game. However, this is the league leading Saints and not the lowly Lions. New Orleans has only a mere 52% completion rate to opponents this season, lowest in the league. This has been a troublesome historic situation for St. Louis. The Rams are 0-17-1 ATS (-9.6 ppg) in database history (since 1989) as a home dog of more than four points when not off a Thursday game if facing a team that has allowed less than 61% completions season-to-date (team=Rams and Hand 4<line and Average(100.*completions@o:team and season)/ Average(1.*passes@o:team and season)<61 and p:day!=Thursday). See pg. 9 for more details. Another home underdog database history is also going against the Rams in this one. St. Louis is 0-11-1 ATS (-13.1 ppg) as a home dog when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date if they didn’t lose by 24+ last game (team=Rams and HD and Average(ounts@o:team and season)-24). St. Louis has given up 34 ppg. in these contests. New Orleans has only punted 3.38 times per game this season. New Orleans scored 30 points in their win over Carolina last week but that was less than the 32 points that were expected. The Saints are 11-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a favorite with a total of at least 35, the week after a win in which their dps was negative (team=Saints and F and total>=35 and p:W and NB and p:dps<0 and 19921018<=date). In that win over Carolina, New Orleans fierce defense only got to Jake Delhomme for two sacks. The Saints are 10-0-1 ATS (10.3 ppg) since September 21, 2008 after a conference game which they had less than three sacks (p:conference=po:conference and p:sacks<3 and team=Saints and 20080921<=date). Against the three worst teams the Rams have played (Detroit, Washington, and Jacksonville), they’ve covered against all three, beating the Lions and losing to Washington and Jacksonville by a field goal or less. Against the five other teams they’ve played, St. Louis has lost by 19, 28, 28, 35, and 36 points, failing to cover in all five. Against the undefeated Saints, the Rams will simply be outclassed.
SBB PREDICTION: New Orleans 38, ST LOUIS 10
Top Total
4* Kansas City and Oakland Under 36.5
SBB liked the under in the first game these teams played this season. That game, Oakland won 13-10, going well under the total. Those 23 points include 14 scored in the last five minutes of the game, as for the first three and a half quarters, neither team found the endzone. We expect a similar kind of game in this one. The Raiders are coming off a bye and previous played San Diego in a 24-16 loss. In that game Oakland held the ball for 29:31 and only sacked Phillip Rivers once. The Black and Silver are 0-15 (-11.2 ppg) OU since October 15, 2006 after a non-Thursday game which they held the ball less than 30 minutes and had less than 3 (team=Raiders and p:TOP<=1800 and p:sacks<3 and p:day!=Thursday and 20061015<=date). The Raiders limited the turnovers to two for the game but still trailed by 11 at half. Oakland is 0-9 (-9.3 ppg) since October 22, 2006 after a game which they trailed by a TD+ at half and turned the ball over no more than twice (team=Raiders and p:M2<=-7 and p:TO<=2 and 20061022<=date).Kansas City is playing on the road for the second straight game after losing in Jacksonville last week, 24-21. The Chiefs are 0-10 OU (-7.5 ppg) since November 14, 1999 as a road dog after playing on the road as a dog (team=Chiefs and AD and p:AD and 19991114<=date).Oakland is a total embarrassment on the offensive end and only averages 216 yards per game, dead last in the league. For the Chiefs, this has meant a grind it out sort of game. Kansas City is 0-8 OU (-11.5 ppg) since December 20, 1998 as a dog when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to date (team=Chiefs and D and Average(o:TY@o:team and season)<275 and 19981220<=date).Oakland is still dreadful throwing the ball and the Chiefs don’t run or throw the ball overly well. With both teams boasting serviceable defenses, scoring points is going to be difficult
SBB PREDICTION: Kansas City 16, OAKLAND 10