ATS Lock Club
6 Units SD pk
5 Units AZ -8.5
5 Units Den -3
4 Units NO -13.5
BRANDON LANG
30 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
If you can't beat the Raiders in Oakland then for my dollar you are not beating the Chargers in San Diego.
You can slowly see the implosion of the Eagles happening right before your very eyes. Every year they do it, and two people are responsible.
Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb.
First of all, the Eagles are off 3 divisional games in a row versus the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys. Now they travel west off those games and a loss last week at home to Dallas.
Next, for the Eagles to win McNabb has to outplay Philip Rivers and folks, as I see it that is not happening today.
I had the Chargers as the 25 dime winner last Sunday and they led the Giants in New York the whole way until a big turnover in the 4th quarter by Rivers gave the Giants the lead only to watch Rivers work the 2 minute drill to perfection and deliver the win.
I feel the Chargers are improving every week and winning the AFC West is not out of the question based on the current struggles of the Denver Broncos.
To put it bluntly, I don't trust McNabb or Andy Reid at all in this situation. Not one bit, especially after their implosion at Oakland. To lose to the Raiders 13-9 just goes to show you how bad this Eagles team can be.
This line opened up Chargers -2 and as of Saturday night it had moved down to a pick'em. That is fine with me. Let these people bet the Eagles here. Not me.
15 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
(if line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2, if line is 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and get 3.) - Colts are going down.
Probably going to be some line moves on this game as the day progresses,so if it's moves down to 2 nothing I can do about that. If it's 2 1/2 you buy to +3 and if it's 3 you buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2.
Now, watching the Bears-Niners game on Thursday night I was just flabbergasted at how bad the Niners looked. Even with Jay Cutler giving them 5 interceptions, they still looked like a team stuck in the mud.
I am talking about a Niners team that 3 weeks ago went into Indy and gave the Colts all they could handle, and what is even more amazing about the Colts struggle in that game was the fact they were coming off a bye week.
Then last week the Colts struggled all day long to put away a Texans team, and if not for a missed 42 yarder at the end of regulation by Houston to force OT, Indy might very well have lost that game.
The bottom line is this; you start getting into the 7th or 8th week of the season you are not supposed to be struggling with the Niners and Texans of the league, you are supposed to be putting people away.
Colts just aren't doing that and against a team like New England, it will come back to haunt you and I believe it will haunt Indy today.
I love what the Patriots are doing right now having won their last 3 games by double-digits and granted, it was over Tennessee 59-0, Tampa Bay 35-7, and Miami 27-17 but truth be told, I don't see them struggling to put these teams away like Indy is.
Eventually these injuries Indy has on defense is going to catch up to you. You can't be down to your 5th and 6th string DB's and not have a guy like Tom Brady pick you apart and rest assured folks, Alex Smith and Matt Schaub are not to be mistaken for Tom Brady.
This game tonight comes down to match ups across the board and those matchups favor the Patriots. Simple as that.
In their 7 meetings head to head, Tom Brady is 5-2 versus Peyton Manning and believe me, it's as personal as it gets here folks. Very personal.
Lastly, I really want you to examine who the Colts have beaten. Jags to open the year, and the Dolphins on Monday night in a game they never should have won. Arizona, Seattle, Tennessee, Rams, Niners and Houston.
There are no Bill Belichick and Tom Brady tandems in there. At least not the way I see it.
Two teams heading in opposite directions right now, with the Patriots playing great ball and with all their injuries, the Colts are struggling and meeting the wrong team at the wrong time.
10 DIME - DETROIT LIONS
They fight hard, I will give them that much, and I expect them to fight here.
In the first meeting between these two the Lions led most of the first half before a late Vikings touchdown made it 10-7.
Lions were driving first drive of the 3rd quarter when running back Smith fumbled and it then opened up the flood gates.
Detroit actually matches up really well with the Vikings, and have played them tough the last 2 years. Catching this many points is just to much wood for the Vikings to cover.
Lastly, as a favorite of 14 points of more in his career, Brett Farve is 1-14-1 ATS. Only 1 cover my friends and in my mind, no way he gets number 2 today.
FREE SELECTION - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Kiki Sports
2* New England
Craig Davis
40 Dime - RAMS (Buy the 1/2 point up if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2)
20 Dime - EAST CAROLINA (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is +4)
BENGALS (Buy the 1/2 point)
RAMS (buy the half point if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2) --- Still trying to recover from that absolute screw job I got on Saturday, and I plan to do it with the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the New Orleans Saints today. I realize the Saints are the "sexy" pick this year, scoring points at will against anyone who stands in their way, including several comeback wins when they are trailing at halftime. But I think we catch New Orleans a little flat in this spot after so many hard-fought come-from-behind games lately. After winning (and covering) their first six games of the season, the Saints have struggled to cover the last two double-digit numbers they've given... and both of those games were at home.
Now Vegas is asking them to go on the road and win by more than two touchdowns. Are they capable of doing that? Sure they are, if you consider they average 35 PPG... more than anyone else in the league. But recent history is against them in this series. Not since 1998 have the Saints beaten the Rams by more than 14 points and the Rams have actually won 2 straight vs. the Saints and 3 of the last 4 SU. Yes, I realize this is a bad Rams team and the Saints are probably better than they were in those previous meetings, but the numbers don't lie, and this day and age when underdogs are making a comeback, I think getting anything more than 10 points is a bonus.
And like I previously mentioned, let's also keep in mind that the Saints could find themselves in a very flat spot here knowing they just came off two grueling home wins vs. Atlanta and Carolina and a possible look-ahead game vs. the Patriots coming up in a few weeks. For now, New Orleans has two very winnable games at St. Louis and at Tampa Bay, and I can't help but think they are looking past these two opponents in preparation for that big home showdown with the Pats. I'm not saying they're taking St. Louis lightly, but they are human and realize it would take a complete meltdown on their part to lose this game, so to expect them to come out all fired up is a bit premature... no one gets excited to play the Rams.
I'd like you to also remember the Saints aren't 100% healthy this week, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if HC Sean Payton sits (rests) a few of his key players to make sure they are healthy for the stretch run. WR Lance Moore likely won't play with an ankle injury. Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey have missed practice this week with flu-like symptoms, but H1N1 has been ruled out. Starting CB Jabari Greer, who's been the most consistent lockdown corner the Saints have had all year, won't be ready for today's game with a bum groin suffered in last week's win over Carolina. LB Scott Fujita and S Darren Sharper have both been limited in practice this week and could be limited in today's game as well. There are others, but I won't bore you with the details. Just know that the Saints are far from 100% today and it could force them to play conservative, keeping the ball on the ground and settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.
As for St. Louis, the writing is on the wall for their game plan... a heavy dose of Steven Jackson mixed in with the occasional run from FB Mike Karney. Why Karney? Because he was released by the Saints and claimed by the Rams this season, meaning he has every reason in the world to play the best game of his career. If Karney and Jackson can provide a spark in the running game (and they should all be much healthier after the bye week), the Rams will milk the clock, keep Brees and company on the sidelines, and make this a low scoring game. Also remember this... as of late, when the Saints get the lead they seem to sit on it. They aren't going for the jugular as much anymore and that's very good news for our side. Top play of the day on the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the Saints.
EAST CAROLINA --- Let me first suggest that you wait until the very last minute to bet this game. It opened at Tulsa -6 and has since gone down to -4 or -4.5 in a few spots, telling me it's probably going to go back up as some of the money starts pouring in on Tulsa. Let it pour, because the Tulsa money is the wrong side. Let me take you back to the Houston/Tulsa game last Saturday. A game Tulsa has prepared for the last two weeks. A game they knew they could win... and a win that would get them one game closer to bowl eligibility. You should know the rest of the story. Houston scored a TD with :21 seconds left, but failed to convert the two-point conversion. Tulsa fans, with their team up two, were ecstatic. The players could see the light at the end of the tunnel. All their hard work and dedication and preparation had actually paid off against a ranked team at home. Houston had rolled through the likes of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State. They had one of the best offenses in the country. Beating these guys would be a great reward to an otherwise disappointing season. Well, apparently it wasn't to be because the Cougars executed a pretty good onside kick, recovered the ball, and two plays later they were kicking the game-winning, 51-yard field goal as time expired.
The air was let out of the sails. The season was all but over. That loss left a scar on this senior class that will never go away, so to expect them to "get up" for a game with defensive-minded East Carolina tonight is a bit of a stretch. How can we ask these kids, who spent so much energy fighting for last week's game, to get the job done tonight against a team that plays better defense than any team Tulsa has faced this year other than Oklahoma? And let's not forget what the Sooners did to the Hurricane in that one (a 45-0 shutout). ECU comes in getting extra rest having not played since last Thursday... a 16-3 loss to ACC power Virginia Tech. Tonight the Tulsa defense will look like a high school team compared to the team they last faced, and I expect a healthy split of pass and run with very good success. The Pirates pass for nearly 200 yards per game while running for about 150 per game, and last I checked Tulsa doesn't play much defense in either facet. I wouldn't be surprised if East Carolina won this game outright, but since yesterday was such a freaking joke of a train wreck, we'll play the line and count the cash.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (be safe and buy the half point) --- Lovin' the underdogs today as pups have come out of the closet recently, getting Vegas back on track after a slow start to the season. Cincy has been a fun team to watch this year, winning games they probably shouldn't while losing games they should have probably won. We all remember that miracle Denver win back in Week 1. We also remember the Texans coming into Cincy in Week 7 and laying the beat-down on the Bengals in the second half. But despite it all, the Bengals are 6-2 on the season and a perfect 3-0 on the road. It's quite amazing if you think about it, but the Bengals have already beaten the Ravens twice this year, and with a win today will be 4-0 against both the Ravens and Steelers. Asking the Steelers to win this game by more than 7 points is asking a bit much, so that's why I'm taking the road team here.
The visitor has won this meeting seven of the last 10 times and has covered 11 of the last 15. Cincy has also been very good on the Vegas line this year, having covered 5 of their last 7 ball games including two in a row. We have a Pittsburgh team, fresh off a Monday night road win (and cover) over the Denver Broncos, expected to come back home on a short week and beat Cincy by more than a touchdown. Isn't that asking a bit much? Cincinnati has only been beaten twice this year because they play very sound defense and they run the ball exceptionally well. Cedric Benson and Rashard Mendenhall will be trying to "one up" each other much of the day, which leads me to believe this game is going to be very physical... back to the old school days of when the Steelers used to play smash-mouth football. Pittsburgh might very well win this game, but it's not going to be by more than a field goal or so. Bonus play on the Bengals plus the number.
Tony Weston
40 Dime Patriots
10 Dime Broncos
PATRIOTS - The Indianapolis Colts are without Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson and have two rookies starting at corner and now get to battle a New England Patriots team that is on fire lately.
The Colts are laying about 2 1/2 points, depending on where you’re playing this, and will fail to cover and be in a position to lose outright to the visiting Pats.
New England rolls into this game having gone 4-2 ATS its last 6 games and having destroyed its opponents the last two weeks, outscoring teams in that three-game stretch 121-24, or 40.3-8, on average.
The Colts, on the other hand, are lucky to still be undefeated as they’ve survived huge scares the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, down 14-9 at home against the San Francisco 49ers, the Colts needed 9 second-half points to pull off the win, but still failed to cover as a 13-point favorite.
Then last week, down 17-13 at home against the Texans, the Colts needed late heroics from Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai to pull out the 20-17 win, but again, failed to cover as a 7 1/2 point favorite.
The Patriots are miles ahead of the Texans and 49ers and are good enough to keep the Colts down if they have them in that position.
It’ll be a great game and one in which the Patriots will flirt with the outright win. Take the points and take New England on the road in this one.
BRONCOS - Sure the Denver Broncos have looked pretty bad the last couple of weeks, getting beat up 30-7 at the Baltimore Ravens then getting humiliated at home on Monday night 28-10 against the Steelers.
From 6-0 SU and ATS, the Broncos are now 6-2 SU and ATS, but will still get over easily on the road at the Redskins.
While the Broncos have had their share of struggles the last two weeks, at least they haven’t struggled all season long like the Redskins, who are just 2-6 SU this year and have covered in just one game.
The Redskins have lost four consecutive games SU and have failed to cover in three straight. During this three game non-cover streak the Redskins have lost by an average of 10.6 points per game, including last week’s 31-17 loss at Atlanta as a 9-point underdog.
Consider, too, the Redskins have not covered in any of their 4 home games this year. While Washington is 2-2 SU at home, those first two wins came against the then winless Rams and Buccaneers. But the last two home games have seen the Redskins lose by an average of 9 points per game.
Things aren’t getting any better today as the Broncos will hand Washington another home loss.
Great Lake Sports
4* Green Bay
3* NY Jets
3* Oakland
4* Detroit
3* LA Lakers
Stephen Nover
75 Dime SAINTS
30 Dime DOLPHINS
15 Dime OVER Chiefs/Raiders
75 Dime SAINTS - There's a myth that you can't get value when laying double-digits in the NFL.
I find plenty of value laying two touchdowns with the Saints against the Rams in this matchup. It doesn't matter that St. Louis was idle last week or is at home.
There's no comparison between these two clubs. The Saints certainly aren't going to be bothered being on the road against a team getting luke-warm crowd support, while playing in their natural dome setting on carpet.
The Rams have eight touchdowns in eight games. The Saints have scored seven touchdowns - on defense. The Rams are averaging 9.6 points per game. New Orleans is scoring at a record 37.9 points per clip. The Rams rank 29th in scoring defense. It's not hard to do the math.
Unlike some other first-year NFL coaches, I like the Rams' Steve Spagnuolo. But he inherited maybe the worst talent in the league. His battered secondary has no chance to contain Drew Brees and his multiple targets and improved running attack. There are reasons why St. Louis has won only one of its last 18 games.
The Saints own huge edges at nearly every position. Steven Jackson is the Rams' only playmaker, but he's not much help when his team falls behind big. Jackson is having a good year statistically, but has managed only one touchdown with defenses keying on him and his team constantly trailing by wide margins.
Marc Bulger has been no help with a 68.2 quarterback rating and only three touchdown passes.
Sean Payton has a history of crushing inferior opponents. This is just the Saints' third game against a bad team. In the other two, they beat the Lions by 18 points and the Bills by 20 on the road.
The Saints are 16-6 (72 percent) against the spead the past 22 times they've been chalk.
30 Dime DOLPHINS - The Buccaneers' surprising upset win at home against Green Bay last Sunday in Josh Freeman's NFL debut as a starting quarterback has helped keep this line down.
That's fine with me because I see the Dolphins, a much superior team, burying the Buccaneers. Keep in mind about last week that Green Bay imploded against the Buccaneers, giving up a touchdown on an interception return, a touchdown on a blocked punt and another score following a long kickoff return.
The Dolphins aren't going to self-destruct like that at home against a weak Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th against the run and 29th overall.
Miami has a run-oriented, physical offense that can pound the undersized Buccaneers while also effectively keeping them off balance with trickery from the wildcat formation.
The Dolphins are just 3-5 this season after going 11-5 last year because their schedule has been much stronger and they've faced five elite quarterbacks - Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
Freeman hardly fits into in that class. This will be his first road start. He's not an NFL starting-caliber quarterback yet. This game will show that. Freeman's preseason rating was 41 percent and that was operating against vanilla second and third string defenses.
Raheem Morris is overmatched as a head coach. The Buccaneers just ended their 11-game losing streak. They don't know how to handle success, which hasn't come often since they are 3-10 against the spread in their past 13 games.
15 Dime OVER Chiefs/Raiders - Statistically speaking, Kansas City and Oakland don't offer much in the way of offense. They rank in the bottom three in total offense. The Raiders average less than 10 points per game.
That's why the linesmaker has set an 'over/under' of 36 1/2 on this matchup. Going over this total isn't difficult with good offenses or bad defenses.
The Chiefs rank 30th in total defense and 30th versus the pass. They have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL with 10. That's a bad defense.
I'm not a fan of JaMarcus Russell. I don't know anyone who is. But the Raiders have speed at receiver that can take advantage of Kansas City's slow secondary. The Raiders also are finally getting back some of their key offensive players following their bye week. The list includes running back Darren McFadden, supposed No. 1 wide receiver Chaz Schilens perhaps their best offensive lineman, Robert Gallery.
McFadden and wideouts Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey are all speedsters in the 4.4 to 4.3 40-yard speed range. Kansas City's secondary can't match that.
The Chiefs piled up 409 yards when they met the Raiders in Week 2. Since then, Kansas City has opened its offense more using no-huddle and cutting Larry Johnson. Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith bring an outside dimension to the Chiefs' running attack something they lacked with the washed-up Johnson.
Kansas City's offensive line also has gotten healthier with the return of left tackle Branden Albert and center Rudy Niswanger. The Chiefs have added veteran Chris Chambers to their receiving corps. He gives Matt Cassel another tall red zone target to go with reliable Dwayne Bowe.
The Chiefs had a good week of practice. Their coach, Todd Haley, said it was their best Friday practice of the season. That could translate into enough points to help get over this low total.
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
YTD 27-25 –1.50% (Not counting Thursday night win with SF)
3% SAN FRANCISCO –3 Thursday Night
3% TENNESSEE -7 No higher than -7
3% CAROLINA +1.5
3% PHILADELPHIA +1
3% NEW ENGLAND/INDIANAPOLIS UNDER 49.5
SAN FRANCISCO -3 Chicago 43.5
Chicago was blown out at home against Arizona last week, 41-21. They did rush for 5.8ypr but allowed a bad Arizona rush offense to gain 182 yards at 5.9ypr. Arizona also threw for 7.5yps, while allowing Chicago to throw for 6.8yps. The Bears threw the ball 17 times more to make the overall numbers look closer than they were at 6.7yppl for Arizona to 6.6yppl for Chicago. SF lost at home to Tennessee and were out gained 5.7yppl to 5.2yppl, including being out passed 7.8yps to 5.1yps. They did out rush Tennessee 5.4ypr to 4.5ypr. The 49ers lost the turnover battle 4-0 and those turnovers allowed Tennessee to score 24 of their 34 points on drives of 36 yards or less. Chicago averages just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. SF averages 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.ypppl. The defense allows just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl overall. SF qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 550-417-30, 155-77-7 and 459-299-21. Numbers favor SF by 3.5 and predict about 45 points. Some solid situations in the 49ers favor, laying a short number at home, with value on their side. SAN FRANCISCO 27 CHICAGO 17
NY JETS -7 Jacksonville 40.5
Jets come in off their loss to Miami, 30-25, in which they out gained Miami 3.2ypr to 2.3ypr, 6.8yps to 1.9yps and 4.9yppl to 2.0yppl. Miami gained just 104 yards on offense, while allowing the Jets to gain 378 yards. Two kick off returns for touchdowns and a fumble recovery for a touchdown, along with a 15 yard drive allowed Miami to score 24 of their 30 points. Jacksonville comes off their 24-21 win over KC, in a game they led 24-6 late in the game. They out passed KC 9.0yps to 5.7yps and overall 6.2yppl to 5.4yppl. Jacksonville averages 5.2ypr against 4.3ypr but just 6.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.6ypp. They allow 6.9yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. The Jets average 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. The big difference between these two teams is the defense of the Jets. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.8yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Jets by 11 and predict about 38 points. I wish I had a situation to back this up and I would probably make the Jets a play. A big advantage at the line of scrimmage for the Jets. NY JETS 26 JACKSONVILLE 13
Denver -3.5 WASHINGTON 37
The Steelers really dominated Denver last week. They out rushed them 6.0ypr to 1.9ypr and out passed them 6.3yps to 5.4yps and 6.1yppl to 4.5yppl overall. Washington made too many dumb mistakes early in their game. They did resemble a decent NFL team in the second half but it was too little, too late. They were out rushed by Atlanta 6.7ypr to 4.3ypr but out passed Atlanta 5.5yps to 4.6yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.7yppl to 4.9yppl. Denver averages just 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 6.4yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Washington is struggling on offense, gaining just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.8yps against 6.5yps and 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense allows just 5.3yps against 5.6yps and 4.8yppl against 5.0yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Denver by 8.5 points and predict just 25 points. This line would have been about six points before Denver’s game on Monday but because of their poor performance, the number has moved down some. Washington hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any one game this year. I like Denver in this spot. DENVER 17 WASHINGTON 10
PITTSBURGH -7 Cincinnati 41.5
Steelers mauled Denver on Monday night, rushing for 173 yards to just 27 yards at 6.0ypr to 1.9ypr. They out passed them 6.3yps to 5.4yps and 6.1yppl to 4.5yppl. Cincinnati came up big again against Baltimore in their 17-7 win. They out passed the Ravens 6.6yps to 4.4yps and 5.1yppl to 4.1yppl. Cincinnati rushes for 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. The Steelers average 7.5yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. There are some minor situations that favor Pittsburgh in this game and the Steelers have a solid history of winning and covering games at home when favored by five or more points in the Rothlisberger era. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 4.5 points and predict about 38 points. Pittsburgh has won the last two games played here against Cincy by 17 and 14 points. I’ll lean their way here as well as Cincy has some key defensive injuries. PITTSBURGH 24 CINCINNATI 13
TENNESSEE -7 Buffalo 41.5
Tennessee out rushed SF last week 152-108 but lost the ypr battle, 5.4ypr to 4.5ypr. They did out pass SF 7.8yps to 5.1yps but were out passed in yards, 250-163 simply because SF threw the ball 28 more times. Overall, Tennessee out gained SF 5.7yppl to 5.2yppl. Buffalo was out gained in their last game at home against Houston, 5.8yppl to 4.5yppl as they lost 31-10. The Bills struggle to move the ball on offense, averaging just 4.0ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.0yps against 6.2yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has really struggled against the rush, allowing 5.1ypr against 4.3ypr but played good pass defense, allowing just 5.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Tennessee rushes the ball extremely well, averaging 5.4ypr against 4.2ypr but averaging just 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl overall. The defense has been about average, allowing 5.9yppl against 5.7yppl but has had to overcome injuries. They are getting healthier on defense and have won two in a row since Vince Young became quarterback. Tennessee has eight games remaining and most of them are winnable games. The toughest games will be at Indianapolis and Houston but the rest are extremely winnable. They still have a chance to make the playoffs. Tennessee qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 550-417-30 and 458-300-21. Numbers favor Tennessee by 6.0 points before the situations and predict about 41 points. I like Tennessee’s ability to rush the ball here and Buffalo’s lack of offensive fire power will make it tough to come from behind should they get behind. TENNESSEE 31 BUFFALO 13
MINNESOTA -16.5 Detroit 47
Vikings come off their bye week after dismantling the Packers prior to the bye week. Detroit comes off a tough loss at Seattle, 20-32, after jumping out to a 17-0 lead. Those 17 points Detroit scored came on three drives of 29 yards or less. Detroit out rushed Seattle 114-55 and 5.4ypr to 3.1ypr. They were out passed 6.5yps to 4.2yps and overall out gained 5.6yppl to 4.6yppl. Detroit averages just 4.8ypr against 5.9yps and 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense has struggled, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. Minnesota’s numbers have really improved, especially in the passing game. They average 6.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows 6.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. Some of that is because they have had leads and allowed teams to pick up yards late in the game. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Numbers favor Minnesota by 18 points and predict about 54 points. Minnesota has averaged 33 points against the three poor teams they have faced this year (including their previous meeting with Detroit). Detroit has allowed 26, 32, 45 and 48 points in their four road games this year. I think you can put Minnesota down for at least 35 points in this game. Detroit was shut out at Green Bay but they didn’t have Matthew Stafford or Calvin Johnson in that game. Duante Culpepper also left that game early. Minus the GB game, Detroit has scored at least 20 points on the road in eight straight road games and they should get some points in this game. Knowing they will probably get between 20 and 27 points makes it a little harder for Minnesota to cover, especially if they take out Brett Favre late in the game if they have a big lead. The over probably is the better call in this game. MINNESOTA 38 DETROIT 24
New Orleans -13.5 ST LOUIS 50
Rams come in off their bye week, which saw them defeat Detroit 17-10 prior to their bye. The Saints came from behind to win for the third straight game against Carolina last week. The Saints were out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.7ypr but out passed Carolina 9.2yps to 5.9yps and overall out gained them 7.0yppl to 5.2yppl. NO averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 8.1yps against 6.0yps and 6.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl, including 4.5ypr against 4.4ypr. The defense has shown some cracks in the last few weeks and they are slightly below average against the rush, which is the one area the Rams excel in. The Rams average 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.0yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense struggles against the pass, allowing 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Saints by 20.5 points and predict about 53 points. Rams have a slight advantage coming off their bye week but they have lost their three home games to decent teams by 19, 28 and 36 points. It will be hard to stay within the number in this game. NEW ORLEANS 40 ST LOUIS 17
Atlanta -1.5 CAROLINA 43.5
Atlanta jumped out to a big lead over Washington last week and then had to hold off the Redskins in the second half. They out rushed Washington 6.7ypr to 4.3ypr but were out passed 5.5yps to 4.6yps. Overall, they out gained the Redskins 5.7yppl to 4.9yppl. Carolina jumped out to a lead over New Orleans but couldn’t hold on in their 30-20 loss, what was much closer than the final score. They out rushed the Saints 4.7ypr to 3.7ypr but were out passed 9.2yps to 5.9yps and overall out gained 7.0yppl to 5.2yppl. Atlanta averages 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr and 6.4yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Their offense has played much better in recent weeks. The defense allows 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Carolina averages 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.4yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense, they allow just 5.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Overall, these two are just about even from the line of scrimmage. Carolina qualifies in my turnover table, which is 405-258-22. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 127-66-5 and 79-32-3. Numbers favor Atlanta by 2.5 points before accounting for the situations and predict about 42 points. After accounting for those situations, numbers favor Carolina by two points. Carolina out gained Atlanta in their first meeting this year and defeated Atlanta 24-9 here last year. Solid rushing home dog with the better defense is always worth a look. CAROLINA 27 ATLANTA 17
MIAMI -10 Tampa Bay 42.5
TB comes off their first win of the season last week over GB, 38-28. While the win was great, 28 of their 38 points came on drives of 17 yards or less, special teams and an interception return. They were out rushed 5.3ypr to 3.2ypr, but did out pass GB 6.2yps to 5.7yps and overall were out gained 5.5yppl to 4.9yppl. Miami lost a close game at NE but they were out gained 8.3yps to 5.2yps and 6.9yppl to 4.8yppl. TB averages just 5.0yps against 5.6yps and 4.6yppl against 5.0yppl. The defense has struggled, allowing 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr, 7.5yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. Miami averages just 4.8yps against 5.4yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr but 7.2yps against 6.8yps and 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. If the line were -7 or less, Miami would qualify in some rushing situations. Numbers favor Miami by 12.5 points and predict about 54 points. Miami has played just one game against a team below .500 this year and they destroyed Buffalo 38-10 in that game. They have scored at least 23 points in each home game this year, while TB has allowed 35, 33, 33 and 16 points in their four road games this year. Miami should get to around 30 points in this game. That means TB will have to get to at least 20 to cover this spread. I would like Miami at -7 or better but also like the over in this game. MIAMI 34 TAMPA BAY 20
OAKLAND -2 Kansas City 36.5
Oakland comes off their bye week. Prior to the bye they lost at SD, 24-16. SD out passed Oakland 9.5yps to 3.0yps and overall 6.2yppl to 3.3yppl. For Oakland, 13 of their 16 points came on drives of 29 yards or less and all 16 points came on drives of 43 yards or less. KC lost 24-21 last week at Jacksonville, but they were out gained 9.0yps to 5.7yps and 6.2yppl to 5.4yppl. The only reason the overall numbers were as close as they were was because KC passed the ball 14 times more than Jacksonville. KC trailed 24-6 in that game and scored 15 points in the final 2:32 to make the game closer than it really was. KC is struggling to run the ball, averaging just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr and just 4.6yps against 6.0yps for a total of 4.1yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 7.5yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. Oakland struggles just as badly on offense, gaining just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.3yps against 5.8yps and 4.0yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr and 6.9yps against 6.5yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Oakland qualifies in my turnover table, which is 405-258-22. Numbers favor Oakland by 2.5 points and predict about 34 points. The Raiders have lost six straight games here to KC. I’d like to pull the trigger on Oakland in this game but I’m never too excited to ask a bad team to do something positive for me. I’ll just lean their way. They do get a little healthier on offense this week. OAKLAND 20 KANSAS CITY 13
ARIZONA -9 Seattle 46.5
Arizona destroyed Chicago last week 41-21. They out gained the Bears 6.7yppl to 6.6yppl but those numbers are skewed because Chicago passed the ball 17 more times than Arizona. Arizona also ran for 182 yards in that game. Seattle fell behind 17-0 to Detroit before scoring 32 of the games final 35 points. Detroit jumped out to the 17-0 lead because of turnovers as all 17 of those points came on drives of 29 yards or less. Arizona still struggles to run the ball, averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr but is averaging 6.2ypr against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow just 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. Seattle struggles on offense, gaining just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.6yps against 6.3yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Arizona by 8.5 points and predict about 42 points. Arizona hasn’t won a home game by more than seven points this year. Seattle hasn’t come closer than 13 points in any road game this year. Not much of an opinion on the side in this game. A slight lean to the under. ARIZONA 24 SEATTLE 17
SAN DIEGO -1 Philadelphia 47
SD was out gained last week 4.5yppl to 4.3yppl by the Giants but left with a 21-20 victory. They were out rushed 4.0ypr to 2.3ypr. Philly lost at home to Dallas and were out gained as well, 5.9yppl to 5.2yppl, including being out passed 7.4yps to 6.1yps. Philly averages 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr and 6.3yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 6.2yppl. The Chargers have struggled to run the ball. They average just 3.1ypr against 4.1ypr but 7.3yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. SD allows 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Philly qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 686-550-42. Numbers favor Philly by one point and predict about 53 points. Neither team has defeated a solid team this year other than the Giants, who both teams have defeated. The offenses are equal but Philly brings the better defense. I like the better defense in this game. PHILADELPHIA 30 SAN DIEGO 23
Dallas -3 GREEN BAY 47.5
Dallas went to Philly and won a big game last week, 20-16. They out gained the Eagles, 5.9yppl to 5.2yppl, including out passing them 7.4yps to 6.1yps. GB lost at lowly TB, 38-28. For TB, 28 of their 38 points came on drives of 17 yards or less, special teams and an interception return. GB out gained TB 5.3ypr to 3.2ypr but was out passed 6.2yps to 5.7yps and overall, out gained TB 5.5yppl to 4.9yppl. Dallas averages 5.1ypr against 4.3ypr and 7.6yps against 6.1yps for a total of 6.5yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl overall. GB averages 6.8yps against 6.6yps and 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. The have stuffed the run this year, allowing just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr but 5.9yps against 5.6yps and 4.8yppl against 5.0yppl overall. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 2.5 points and predict about 51 points. GB lost at home to Dallas last year as three point dogs, 27-16 and were never really in that game. Dallas dominated at the line of scrimmage, rushing for over 200 yards and put heavy pressure on Aaron Rodgers all night long. And, that was when GB was actually protecting Rodgers decently. This year, they haven’t protected him at all. The Packers have faced two above average offenses at home this year and allowed 31 and 38 points. GB has scored at least 21 points in six straight home games. The last time they didn’t score at least 21 points at home was against Dallas last year, when they scored 16 points. Dallas has played two above average defenses on the road this year and totaled (both teams) 27 and 36 points in those two games. Aaron Kampman and Brandon Chillar are both out for this game. This is a do or die situation for GB but they haven’t proven they can handle the physicality of the Cowboys. DALLAS 30 GREEN BAY 23
INDIANAPOLIS -3 New England 49.5
Big time show down for these two elite teams. Indy won at home last week over Houston 20-17 but were out gained by the Texans. They did out rush Houston 4.0ypr to 3.1ypr but were out passed 6.7yps to 5.8yps and overall out gained 5.4yppl to 5.3yppl. NE won a close game at home against Miami, 27-17 but out gained the Dolphins, 6.9yppl to 4.8yppl, including out passing them 8.3yps to 5.2yps. NE averages 7.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.4yps against 5.7yps and 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. Indy averages 7.8yps against 6.6yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl and allow just 4.9yps against 5.8yps for a total of 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Indy by four points and predict just 40 points. Indy hasn’t defeated NE here the last two years by more than three points (three points last year and lost by four points two years ago). Those last two games totaled 33 and 44 points. The Colts offense hasn’t been as explosive the last few weeks. They totaled just 32 and 37 points the last two weeks against SF and Houston. Other than their 59-0 win over Tennessee, NE has totaled more than 49 points in any one game this year. I like the under in this game and will lean towards NE. NEW ENGLAND 23 INDIANAPOLIS 20
Baltimore -10.5 CLEVELAND 40
Cleveland was blown out at Chicago the week before their bye, 30-7. Baltimore was dominated at Cincinnati last week for the second time this year bye the Bengal’s. They were out gained 5.1yppl to 4.1yppl, including being out passed 6.6yps to 4.4yps. Baltimore averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr and 6.4yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but 6.6yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Cleveland averages just 3.9yps against 5.9yps and 3.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. Cleveland qualifies in my turnover table, which is 405-258-22. Numbers favor Baltimore by 15.5 points and predict about 40 points. Cleveland has now scored more than 10 points in just three of their last 14 games. Two of those games this year saw them top that amount because of kick returns for touchdowns. They have failed to come closer than 13 points in 10 of those same 14 contests. And, they’ve allowed at least 27 points in six of their eight games this year, including a 34-3 loss to these Ravens earlier this year. That history makes it very tough to play Cleveland, even if they are off their bye week. BALTIMORE 31 CLEVELAND 10
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10 Units Carolina +1
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3* Carolina +1.5
3* Buffalo +8.5
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SUNDAY
11/15 NFL:
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Pittsburgh Steelers -7 2Units
Tennessee Titans -9.5 2Units
Dallas Cowboys -3 2Units
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5 DIME NEW ORLEANS