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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, November 15,2009

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(@blade)
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Psychic

2 units Jacksonville +7
2 units New Orleans -13.5
3 units Denver -3.5 (best bet)
3 units Oakland -2 (best bet)
3 units Seattle +9 (best bet)
4 units Philadelphia +1 (major)
5 units New England +3 (wiseguy)

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 9:49 am
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Lenny Stevens

20* Steelers
20* Eagles
10* Jets
10* Dolphins
10* Chiefs

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 9:50 am
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Youngstown Connection

Pittsburgh -7

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 9:50 am
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Bob Balfe

Broncos -3.5 over Redskins
Washington has failed to score many points this year and without most of their top players in the lineup I do not expect to see them scoring much today. This is a tough spot for Denver traveling to the east coast, but if you cant beat the Redskins then you don’t deserve a playoff spot. If Denver can score two touchdowns they will win and cover this game. Take the Broncos.

Rams +14 over Saints
The Rams have improved a lot since last year, but its the same old story every game record wise. Steven Jackson should have a big day running against the Saints Defense which will keep them in the game. New Orleans is overrated when it comes to public betting. This line is way too high. The Saints will win, but it will be much like the last two weeks as they will come from behind. Take the Rams.

Falcons -1.5 over Panthers
Jake Delhomme used to be one of the best QB's in the game, but he is soft now as are his Panthers. Carolina has a ton of injuries at the running back spot and without an effect run they will not win this game. The Falcons have way too many offensive weapons and should have no problem scoring today. Take Atlanta.

Raiders -2 over Chiefs
Kansas City has a lot of problems since they released Larry Johnson. This Raiders Defense has been good for the last few years and should contain the Chiefs today. Look for the Raiders to have a big day on the ground and too play a great defensive game. Take Oakland.

Seahawks/Cardinals Over 47
Arizona has a ton of offensive weapons, but on defense are missing a lot of linebackers. Look for both QB's to have a huge offensive day. The Cardinals have a ton of offensive weapons and I can see them scoring 30 themselves today. Look for a high scoring game. Take the Over.

Chargers -1 over Eagles
San Diego has two 6'5 receivers and on defense have bigger cornerbacks then the Eagles receivers. Look for Phillip Rivers to have a big game and the running game to shine. The Eagles are in a very bad spot traveling to the west coast. The Eagles have a lot of defensive injuries. Take the Chargers.

Dallas -3 over Green Bay
The Packers linebackers are banged up which should allow the Cowboys to run the ball well. If the Cowboys are balanced on offense they will score a ton of points. Green Bay will have a tough time on offense against the 3-4 defense of Dallas. Look for Dallas to prove that they are the best team in the NFL East. There is a reason why Dallas is favored on the road. Take Dallas.

NBA Basketball
Mavs -3.5 over Pistons

College Basketball
Detroit -3.5 over Western Michigan

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 9:51 am
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NHL PRO PICKS

Edmonton +136

San Jose +120

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:10 am
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Seabass

300* Green Bay
200* San Diego
200* KC Under
100* Carolina
100* Washington
50* Indy
50* Teaser Jax, and Denver Under

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:13 am
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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

New England vs Indianapolis

For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this situation:

The Patriots will try to derail the Colts’ 17-game regular-season winning streak as they renew their star-studded rivalry Sunday night; and to do that New England will have to control the clock, and do its best to keep Manning off the field. This will be more difficult with two of its top backs sitting in this one, so Bellichick will have to improvise.

The Patriots’ revamped unit has dealt with retirements (Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi) and departures (Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymour), but anchored by linebacker Jerod Mayo and lineman Vince Wilfork, the team ranks second in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game!

Keep in mind that the total has gone under the posted number in five if New England's last seven overall and in four of its las five on the road.

On the other side of the field: While the Patriots have relied on a patchwork defense to help them to a commanding lead in the AFC East, the Colts have a two-game lead on the rest of the conference under first-year coach Jim Caldwell.

While Peyton Manning remains the focal point of this Colts team, keep in mind that the Colts lead the NFL in points allowed, with opponents managing just 13.5 points per contest.

Their defense, which features rookie starters at cornerback in Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey, has allowed four passing TD's this season.

Remember, the total has gone under the posted number in seven of Indianapolis's last ten overall and in four of its last five at home.

Bottom line: I expect the Patriots to do everything they can to keep Manning off the field, and when you couple that with these teams strong defensive tendencies, and these O/U trends, I believe this number is a little too high and feel we're getting excellent value on the UNDER! 10* UNDER.

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:14 am
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Tony George

New England vs Indianapolis

Revenge for New England, better running game, better coach, health issues for the Colts with banged up secondary, the undefeated streak on the line, Brady an equal QB, did I mention New England wants this bad after losing 3 out of 4. Colts not putting people away and they let teams hang around. The Pats will do more than hang around!! Pats win SU on the road.

Play 1 Unit on New England

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:14 am
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Marc Lawrence

New Orleans vs St. Louis

The Rams return from their Bye Week to host the undefeated Saints in a battle in the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis Sunday afternoon. Before scoffing at the Rams chances in this contest, consider this juicy tidbit from our powerful database: NFL sub .400 home dogs of 6 or more points, playing with a week of rest from Game Four out, are 18-0 ATS versus an opponent that score 13 or more points in a win or loss of 12 or less points in its last game since 1980. With the Saints just 1-16 ATS in games after scoring 28 or more points in back-to-back games versus a sub .500 opponent , and the Rams 3-0 SU and ATS as a home dog off a Bye Week, look out for the upset here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on St. Louis.

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:15 am
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Rocketman

Buffalo vs Tennessee

Tennessee is allowing a whopping 29.7 points per game overall this year and 26 points per game at home this season. Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Bills are 26-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Bills are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 10. Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Titans are 15-36 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Titans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. We'll play Buffalo for 3 units today!

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:15 am
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Lenny Del Genio

Kansas City vs Oakland

Many factors set this one up as a big play on the Chiefs. For starters, this is a big revenge spot for KC. They outgained the Raiders 409-167 and won the TOP battle 38:39 to 21:21. Oakland QB Russell completed just seven passes for 99 yards and somehow his team won. The former #1 Overall DC has not improved a lick since that time, ranking ahead of only failed Cleveland stater Derek Anderson in terms of passer rating. The Raiders offense has scored just 45 points in its last six games, scoring seven or fewer in four of them. Kansas City is at least showing signs of improvement with last week's 21-point effort against Jacksonville (lost by three). QB Cassel will have more time to throw now that LT Albert and C Niswanger are back in the starting lineup. RB Jamal Charles is a welcome replacement in the backfield for malcontent Larry Johnson, who was doing nothing anyway. The acquisition of WR Chris Chambers is a solid compliment to Dwayne Bowe. That Oakland Week 2 win improved the visitor to 12-1 SU the last 13 meetings between these teams and that includes six straight road wins by KC. Clearly, we think they will return the favor from the Week 2 loss. The Raiders have lost six straight post-bye week games and are just 15-36-1 ATS their last 52 home games. Look for the Chiefs to rally around the dismissal of Johnson. Kansas City is our 25* AFC West Game of the Year.

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:16 am
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Joe Nelson

Broncos at Redskins
Pick: Broncos -3.5

The Broncos face a short week coming off a huge Monday night game and if the Broncos are off a loss there will be some growing pressure as San Diego is keeping pace in the AFC West and memories of last year’s collapse still linger. Washington out-gained Atlanta last week but had an interception returned for a touchdown and allowed too many big plays at the wrong times. The Redskins have played the weakest schedule in the league and yet are just 2-6 and injuries are adding to the rash or other issues for this sinking team. A lot of people still are not buying into what Denver has done but the defensive numbers are incredibly impressive and this is a solid offensive team that has a much greater chance of success, even if this game comes in a tough situation off a big Monday game with the Chargers next.

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:17 am
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Andre Gomes

DAL -3 vs GBP

These two teams are going in opposite directions and in my opinion the Cowboys with the momentum on their side have all the conditions to get another great road win this week. In this matchup, I won't compare Aaron Rodgers with Tony Romo because they are two good quarterbacks. The huge difference between these two teams is related with their offensive and defensive lines.

The Packers may have a good quarterback and terrific wide receivers, but their offensive line is plain and simple terrible! Last week they lost against a winless team by 28-38 and Aaron Rodgers was sacked 6 times, while throwing 3 interceptions! I remember that we are talking about a Buccaneers team that had only 11 sacks before that game in one of the worst marks of the league. Meanwhile, the Cowboys didn't enjoy a good start of the season in terms of pass rushing, however they are peaking right now - one of the main reasons for their 4-game winning streak, as during that span they sacked the opposing quarterback 15 times! To make a point in here, I have to say that the Packers' Defensive Line produced just 13 sacks in the season in 8 games and so, we are dealing with two completely different units.

The Packers may have a "decent" 4-4 record, but a brief look to their wins, we can see that they defeated the Bears, the Rams, the Lions and the Browns - 4 overall bad teams that have a combined record of 8-26 and besides the Bears, the others three teams are in the bottom of their respective divisions! Against positive record teams, the Packers constantly failed to win and Aaron Rodgers was sacked, hit, and pressured several times through the games.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are a rising team and they have the full package for a road win. They have a terrific running game with three quality RB's in Barber, Jones and Choice and Tony Romo has finally found a #1 target in Miles Austin. The Cowboys had their premium test last week in Philadelphia against the Eagles and they didn't disappoint in both ends of the field. I expect them to carry the momentum and defeat the hapless Packers on the Lambeau Field today. Take Dallas in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Dallas Cowboys -3

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:21 am
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The Boooj

25 units on New Orleans (-14) over St. Louis
25 units on San Diego (-1) over Philadelphia
10 units on Green Bay (+3) over Dallas

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:23 am
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BRANDON LANG

30 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

If you can't beat the Raiders in Oakland then for my dollar you are not beating the Chargers in San Diego.

It's Rediculous statements like this that tells you all you need to know about how good a handicapper he is!

 
Posted : November 15, 2009 10:25 am
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