Wunderdog
Carolina +11
Buffalo/Cincinnati Under 44
Minnesota +3.5
Green Bay/Minnesota Under 44
Detroit +6.5
Detroit/Dallas Under 46.5
Washington +7
Cleveland +1.5
Houston +7
Tampa Bay/San Francisco Under 41.5
Indianapolis/New England Under 50
New York Giants/Philadelphia Under 48
Dr. Bob
Detroit +6.5
Cleveland +1.5
Pittsburgh -7
New England -4
Opinion
Arizona +8.5
Jimmy Boyd
5* NY Giants +3
BEN BURNS
10* Minnesota Vikings +3
10* Giants/Eagles Under 47
10* San Francisco 49ers -4
9* Pittsburgh Steelers -8
9* New York Giants +3
Sixth Sense
YTD 34-27-1 +12.00% (33-28-1 +5.70% with Sports Monitor)
3% HOUSTON +7
3% BUFFALO +5.5
3% CLEVELAND +1.5
3% ST LOUIS +3 EVEN
3% NEW ENGLAND -3.5
3% NY GIANTS +3.5 -120
3% DETROIT/DALLAS OVER 46.5
3% TAMPA BAY/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 41.5
3% DENVER +10
PITTSBURGH -7 Oakland 40.5
Oakland comes off their bye week following a come from behind OT win over KC. In that game they out rushed KC 4.3ypr to 3.1ypr, out passed them 5.5yps to 5.3yps and out gained them overall 5.0yppl to 4.2yppl. Pittsburgh was throttled at home by NE 39-26 in a game that was much worse than the final score or stats. They out rushed NE 4.8ypr to 4.3ypr but were out passed 8.1yps to 6.5yps and out gained overall 6.8yppl to 6.1yppl. Much of the Steeler’s yards came in garbage time.
Oakland averages 4.9ypr against 4.0, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Pittsburgh averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 2.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by six points and predict about 42 points. Oakland’s defense has been surprisingly good this year against the pass and that has given them an above average defense overall. Their ability to run the ball as well, even against a very good Pittsburgh rush defense, gives them a chance to stay in this game. Pittsburgh is a little banged up as well. PITTSBURGH 24 OAKLAND 20
NY JETS -7 Houston 45.5
Houston is off a disappointing loss at Jacksonville on a Hail Mary pass to end the game. They were out rushed by Jacksonville 4.6ypr to 3.9ypr and about even in the passing game with 9.8yps to 9.9 for Jacksonville. Overall, they out gained Jacksonville 7.5yps to 7.1yps. The Jets got away with a win and somewhat lucky cover at Cleveland in OT. They were out rushed in that game 4.3ypr to 3.8ypr but did out pass Cleveland 6.2yps to 5.8yps and out gained slightly 5.1yppl to 5.0yppl.
Houston averages 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.8yps against 6.7yps and 6.3yppl against 5.7yppl. New York averages 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.8yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl.
The Jets qualify in a letdown situation, which is 11-39-3 and plays against them here. Houston qualifies in my turnover table, which is 421-273-18. Numbers favor the Jets by six points and predict 46 points. Houston has given up at least 24 points in every game this year. But, they’ve also scored at least 23 points in all but three of their games. The value is with Houston and the situations that apply to them are simply too strong to ignore. NY JETS 28 HOUSTON 27
Baltimore -11 CAROLINA 37.5
Baltimore struggled early at Atlanta, including some key turnovers and then couldn’t hold the lead in the final minute in their 26-21 loss. They out rushed Atlanta 5.5ypr to 2.6ypr and were even in the passing game at 5.7yps to 5.8yps for Atlanta. Overall, they out gained Atlanta 5.6yppl to 4.8yppl, which is somewhat skewed because Atlanta threw the ball 16 more times than Baltimore. Carolina struggles on offense and now their defense is failing them as well. They lost at Tampa Bay 31-16 and were out rushed 6.2ypr to 3.8ypr, out passed 9.4yps to 5.9yps and out gained overall, 7.7yppl to 4.8yppl.
Baltimore averages 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.5yps against 6.5yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. Carolina averages 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.5yps against 5.9yps and 4.1yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Baltimore by six points and predict about 35 points. But, those numbers don’t consider Brian St. Pierre is now starting for Carolina. Factoring him in, probably makes this number closer to nine to ten points. Carolina has lost seven of their eight games by at least 10 points and six of seven by at least 13 points. The Carolina defense, once the strength of this team, have given up big chunks of yards the last few weeks. Baltimore’s numbers are down this year and they haven’t won a road game by more than three points. Their road games have been against some pretty good competition but they are not lighting it up either. BALTIMORE 24 CAROLINA 10
TENNESSEE -7 Washington 44
The Redskins failed to show up on Monday night against Philadelphia. Not that it would have mattered much knowing the way Vick is playing. They were out rushed 6.8ypr to 5.8ypr and out passed 11.4yps to 8.2yps. Overall, they were out gained 8.8yppl to 7.4yppl. Hard to tell how serious their offensive numbers were knowing they were so far behind that Philly was just trying to get through the game. Certainly, Washington couldn’t move the ball against Philly when the out come was still in question. Tennessee lost Kerry Collins and also knocked out Miami’s top two quarterbacks but lost at Miami 29-17. They out rushed Miami 5.4ypr to 2.9ypr but were destroyed in the passing game, 8.3yps to 3.1yps and out gained overall, 5.9yppl to 4.0yppl.
Washington averages 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.5yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. Tennessee averages 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.8yppl.
Tennessee qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 697-566-44 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Tennessee by 11.5 points and predict about 43 points. Washington should be focused this week after last weeks pounding to the Eagles but the numbers support Tennessee so I will lean with them. TENNESSEE 27 WASHINGTON 16
DALLAS -6 Detroit 46.5
Detroit lost a heartbreaker at Buffalo, 14-12. They were out rushed 4.6ypr to 2.9ypr but out passed Buffalo 6.2yps to 5.6yps. Overall, they out gained Buffalo 5.1yppl to 5.0yppl but they did throw 26 more passes than Buffalo. Dallas finally decided to show up and jumped on the Giants early on the way to a 33-20 win. They were even in the rushing game at 3.8ypr but out passed the Giants 14.1yps to 7.8yps. Overall, they out gained the Giants 8.5yppl to 6.3yppl.
Detroit averages 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Dallas averages 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.1yps against 6.6yps and 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers Dallas by six points and predict about 52 points. Detroit has allowed 24, 28 and 28 points on the road against above average offenses this year and has now allowed 20 or more points in 31 of their last 37 road games. Dallas has allowed at least 20 points in all but two of their games this year. My numbers project 52 points and this figures to be another high scoring game. Detroit only scored 12 points last week in Buffalo but weather conditions weren’t great either. They know they will need to score this week and I expect them to come out throwing against a porous Dallas secondary. DALLAS 30 DETROIT 27
Green Bay -3 MINNESOTA 44
GB is off their bye following their dismantling of the Cowboys 45-7. In that game, they out rushed a disinterested Cowboy team 3.9ypr to 2.8ypr, out passed them 7.7yps to 4.9yps and out gained them overall 5.8yppl to 4.3yppl, including winning the TO battle 4-0. The Vikings, once again, failed to show up for a road game in their 27-13 loss at Chicago. They were out rushed 3.4ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed 6.4yps to 5.5yps and out gained overall, 4.9yppl to 4.4yppl. They also lost the TO battle 4-2.
Green Bay averages 4.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Minnesota averages 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl.
Minnesota qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 136-70-5, 444-302-21, 375-235-18 and 160-89-11. They also qualify in my turnover table, which is 421-273-18. Numbers favor Green Bay by four points and predict about 40 points. These two have combined to score at least 43 points in eight of the past ten meetings here. Packers lead the league in fewest points allowed but Minnesota can move the ball on them if they are healthy. I would like to play Minnesota here but if Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian can’t perform, Percy Harvin isn’t enough offense to rely on against the Packers. I’ll lean towards Minnesota but not knowing how effective those players will be or if they’ll play is enough to keep me off of Minnesota. MINNESOTA 23 GREEN BAY 20
CINCINNATI -5.5 Buffalo 42.5
Buffalo got their first win of the season over Detroit last week. They out rushed Detroit 4.6ypr to 2.9ypr but were out passed 6.2yps to 5.6yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.1yppl to 5.0yppl, although Detroit threw the ball 26 more times than Buffalo. Cincinnati played a great game at Indy from the line of scrimmage but turned the ball over five times that ultimately cost them the game in their 23-17 loss. They out rushed Indy 3.6ypr to 3.5ypr, out passed them 6.0yps to 4.7yps and out gained them overall, 5.2yppl to 4.3yppl.
Buffalo averages 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.5yps against 6.3yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Cincinnati averages 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl.
Buffalo qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 149-76-6. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 287-197-22. Cincinnati qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 123-54-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 5.5 points and predict about 47 points. Cincinnati is 1-12 ATS as a home favorite the last 13 games. In addition Cincinnati is banged up on defense and they have now allowed at least 22 points in six straight games. Buffalo has been blown out by the best teams they have faced – Green Bay and the Jets – and played NE within eight points although the game was closer than that. Against the average teams they have stayed within five points of all of them except Jacksonville. Last weeks game against Detroit was the first game they played against a below .500 team this year. Cincinnati will be game number two against a below .500 team. I like Buffalo to keep this one close. BUFFALO 24 CINCINNATI 23
JACKSONVILLE -1.5 Cleveland 43.5
Cleveland lost a tough one at home to the Jets in OT, 26-20. They out rushed a good Jets rushing team 4.3ypr to 3.8ypr but were out passed 6.2yps to 5.8yps. Overall, they out gained the Jets 5.1yppl to 5.0yppl. They were out gained in yardage by 153 yards because the Jets controlled the ball for almost 20 more minutes than Cleveland. Jacksonville won a big game at home against Houston 31-24 thanks to a last second Hail Mary pass. They out rushed Houston 4.6ypr to 3.9ypr, out passed Houston 9.9yps to 9.8yps but were out gained overall 7.5yppl to 7.1yppl because they ran more rushing plays than Houston.
Cleveland averages 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville averages 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.4yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 8.1yps against 6.7yps and 6.4yppl against 5.7yppl.
Cleveland would qualify in a contrary situation, which is 141-85-5, if they were getting three or more points. Numbers favor Cleveland by 1.5 points and predict about 46 points. Cleveland is the better team from the line of scrimmage and has the much better defense and also brings a better offense now with Colt McCoy at quarterback. Anytime a team with a defense like Jacksonville’s is laying points, it’s worth a look at the underdog. CLEVELAND 27 JACKSONVILLE 21
KANSAS CITY -7.5 Arizona 44
Arizona never figured out how to stop the Seattle offense and the ultimate result was a 36-18 loss at home. They were out rushed 3.5ypr to 2.9ypr, out passed 9.0yps to 5.7yps and out gained overall 6.7yppl to 5.1yppl. KC fell behind 35-0 at Denver and never recovered in their 49-29 loss. They allowed 153 yards rushing and were out rushed 4.9ypr to 2.3ypr, out passed 8.5yps to 7.6yps and out gained overall 6.8yppl to 6.1yppl.
Arizona averages 4.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.8yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Kansas City averages 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.3yps against 6.6yps and 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.6yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl.
KC qualifies in a letdown situation based on their poor defensive performance last week, which is 92-46-6. Numbers favor KC by 10.5 points and predict about 48 points. The situations point towards Arizona but the value clearly lies with KC. Arizona has lost by double digits in three of their road games this year and the only reason they stayed close at Minnesota was because of a fumble return and a kick off return for touchdowns. They were dominated at the line of scrimmage. KC has performed well at home this year. KANSAS CITY 30 ARIZONA 20
NEW ORLEANS -11.5 Seattle 44
Seattle blew out Arizona 36-18. They out rushed Arizona 3.5ypr to 2.9ypr, out passed them 9.0yps to 5.7yps and out gained them overall, 6.7yppl to 5.1yppl, including sacking Arizona five times. NO is off their bye week after destroying Carolina 34-3. They were out rushed in that game 5.3ypr to 5.2ypr, but out passed Carolina 5.7yps to 1.9yps and out gained Carolina overall 5.4yppl to 3.3yppl.
Seattle averages 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.6yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. New Orleans averages 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.5yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.3yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.0yppl.
NO qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 111-39-3 and plays against them here. Numbers favor NO by 11 points and predict about 38 points. I’d like to play against New Orleans in this game because the situation is very strong but I went against Seattle last week because of how poorly they have played on the road recently. They have won two games this year at Chicago and Arizona but last weeks results were probably more a result of just how bad Arizona is. Seattle looked much better on offense but I will sit on the sidelines for this game. NEW ORLEANS 23 SEATTLE 16
Atlanta -3 ST LOUIS 43
Atlanta took advantage of a couple of early Baltimore turnovers and then found a way to drive the length of the field in the last minute to win 26-21. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed Baltimore slightly 5.8yps to 5.7yps and were out gained overall, 5.6yppl to 4.8yppl, despite throwing 16 more passes than Baltimore. The Rams lost in OT at SF but they couldn’t find a way to stop the 49ers passing offense. They out rushed SF 4.3ypr to 3.8ypr but were out passed 9.8yps to 5.1yps. Overall, they were out gained 7.1yppl to 4.8yppl.
Atlanta averages 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. St. Louis averages 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl.
The Rams qualify in my turnover table, which is 421-273-18. Numbers actually favor St. Louis by two points and predict about 37 points. Atlanta rates as a below average team from the line of scrimmage. They have played four road games this year and lost at Pittsburgh by six in OT (No Roethlisberger), won by three at NO, won by 10 at Cleveland and lost by 14 at Philadelphia. Cleveland had a shot to win that game until Jake Delhomme came in and started turning the ball over. Atlanta hasn’t been on the road since their last loss at Philadelphia on Oct. 17th or over a month ago. Meanwhile, the Rams have played tough at home defeating Washington, Seattle, San Diego and Carolina, having not allowed more than 17 points in any home game this year. Rams aren’t great but the situation and value is in their favor and they are a home dog against a below average defense who hasn’t been on the road in a while. St. Louis has lost only one game by more than four points this year. ST LOUIS 23 ATLANTA 16
SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 Tampa Bay 41.5
TB is starting to hit some big plays on offense in both the running and passing game. They defeated Carolina 31-16 and out rushed Carolina 6.2ypr to 3.8ypr, out passed them 9.4yps to 5.9yps and out gained them overall, 7.7yppl to 4.8yppl. SF is also starting to move the ball through the air with the insertion of Troy Smith at quarterback. They defeated the Rams in OT, 23-20. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 3.8ypr but out passed the Rams 9.8yps to 5.1yps. Overall, they out gained the Rams 7.1yppl to 4.8yppl.
Tampa Bay averages 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.5yps against 5.6yps and 5.7yppl against 4.9yppl. San Francisco averages 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SF by two points and predict about 44 points. These teams are very interesting in that TB has started to move the ball on offense with LeGarrette Blount now running the ball and TB hitting big passes over the top. That should play well against a 49er defense that has given up big plays in the passing game. The 49ers passing game has also taken off since Troy Smith took over at quarterback. This game figures to be a high scoring game and I’ll lean towards SF because of the better defense. SAN FRANCISCO 27 TAMPA BAY 23
NEW ENGLAND -3.5 Indianapolis 50.5
Indianapolis escaped with a victory over Cincinnati despite being out gained at the line of scrimmage. A 5-0 turnover in their favor aided their victory. They were out rushed 3.6ypr to 3.5ypr, out passed 6.0yps to 4.7yps and out gained overall, 5.2yppl to 4.3yppl. NE destroyed Pittsburgh 39-26 and the final score or stats weren’t as close as they look as Pittsburgh padded their stats with late gains. NE was out rushed 4.8ypr to 4.3ypr but out passed Pittsburgh 8.1yps to 6.5yps and out gained them overall, 6.8yppl to 6.1yppl. They also sacked Pittsburgh five times.
Indianapolis averages 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 6.8yps and 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.9yps against 6.6yps and 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl. New England averages 4.1ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 6.4yppl.
New England qualifies in a home momentum if they are favored by three or less, which is 85-42-9. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 471-302-21. Numbers favor NE by two points and predict about 54 points. I went against NE last week and got burned and I still feel they are only a little better than average but this is a good match up for them this week. Indy is hurting and for the first time I can remember, they actually rate as a below average offense right now. The defense is still playing decent considering all the injuries but offensively they have really struggled. Indy has allowed at least 24 points in four of the five road games they have played. NE has scored at least 23 points in every home game this year. If these two play later this year, Indy may be the better team but timing is very important and I feel NE is getting Indy at the right time. NEW ENGLAND 33 INDIANAPOLIS 24
PHILADELPHIA -3.5 NY Giants 48
The Giants were blindsided by the Cowboys in their 33-20 loss at home. Both teams averaged 3.8ypr but Dallas out passed the Giants 14.1yps to 7.8yps. Overall, they were out gained 8.5yppl to 6.3yppl. Philadelphia jumped on Washington about ten times worse than Dallas jumped on the Giants, getting off to a 28-0 first quarter lead. They out rushed Washington 6.8ypr to 5.8ypr, out passed them 11.4yps to 8.2yps and out gained them overall, 8.8yppl to 7.4yppl. Washington couldn’t manage anything on offense when the out come was still in doubt so its hard to get excited about their good offensive numbers knowing they were well behind when they accumulated them.
New York averages 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.1yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Philadelphia averages 5.4ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.8yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl.
The Giants qualify in my turnover table, which is 421-273-18. Numbers favor Philly by ½ point and predict about 53 points. I had Philadelphia last week and also the week before when they failed to cover but won the game, despite dominating Indy. With Vick starting and finishing a game, Philly has scored at least 26 points in every game. Giants have won four of the last five played here – lost last year and this series here has totaled at least 48 points in five of the last six games played here. Giants are a little banged up on the offensive line but getting points here after their debacle last week along with a strong situation and value makes it worth a shot. NY GIANTS 30 PHILADELPHIA 27
SAN DIEGO -10 Denver 50.5
Speaking of jumping out to large leads, Denver jumped on KC to the tune of 35-0 before KC knew what hit them, on their way to a 49-29 victory. Denver out rushed KC 4.9ypr to 2.3ypr, out passed them 8.5yps to 7.6yps and out gained them overall, 6.8yppl to 6.1yppl, including sacking KC four times. Chargers are off their bye following a 29-23 victory at Houston. In that game, they were out rushed 4.1ypr to 3.0ypr but out passed Houston 12.1yps to 7.4yps. Overall, they out gained Houston 7.3yppl to 5.8yppl.
Denver averages 3.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. San Diego averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 8.0yps against 6.6yps and 6.4yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl.
SD qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 111-39-3 and plays against them here. Numbers favor SD by 10.5 points and predict about 53 points. I had Denver here last year in a game they won SU after being blown out three straight years here. The Broncos finally had their starting offensive line in place last week and it produced huge results with Kyle Orton never getting touched. Time will tell but it appears they may finally be getting their offense together and they are somewhat healthier on defense as well. The Chargers are dealing with injuries of their own at wide receiver, tight end and running back. I like Denver to keep this game close with such a large number. SAN DIEGO 31 DENVER 30
David Malinsky
5* Minnesota Vikings +3
4* San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket - Chiefs
Texans
49ers
Giants
Falcons/Rams Under
DOUBLE DRAGON
RAVENS -12
PACKERS / VIKINGS OVER 44
BILLS +6
RAIDERS +7
FALCONS -3
49'ERS -3 (-120)
NYG / PHILLY OVER 48
CHARGERS -10
Scott Spreitzer
10* Cleveland Browns +1.5
10* NY Giants +3.5
Total Dominator - Packers Over 44
KO Shocker - Detroit Lions +6.5
KO Shocker - Kansas City Chiefs -8
NFL Blockbuster Blowout - Baltimore Ravens -11
Gold Medal Club
50* Minnesota
25* Carolina
25* Atlanta
10* Pittsburgh
10* Houston
Anthony Redd
75 Dime Baltimore
15 Dime 1st Half Baltimore
15 Dime Cleveland/Jacksonville Over
15 Dime Baltimore/Carolina Over
15 Dime Detroit/Dallas Under
15 Dime Atlanta/St. Louis Under
15 Dime NY Giants/Philadelphia Under
Derek Mancini
100 Dime St. Louis Rams
No one seems to believe the Rams have a shot here. No one except me that is. Before we even begin this analysis, doesn't it seem a bit fishy that you're only being ask to lay a field goal to play the red-hot Falcons here? Given their 3 straight wins, incl. an impressive one against Baltimore in their last one, and a surging Matt Ryan leading the way, it would appear oddmakers have made a huge mistake with this number. Or have they?
Here's the big x-factor... the venue. Notice the Falcons three straight wins all came at home, where they're all but unbeatable. However, put the Birds on the road, and all of a sudden they looks like an average NFL football team. Atlanta averages just 18 ppg away, while allowing 20 ppg. This is significant, because the Rams are similar the Falcons in one respect - they play MUCH better at home. St. Louis is not only built to play on the turf, but their numbers prove it, allowing 12 ppg on 294 total yards at the Edward Jones Dome, where they're 4-1 SUATS this season!
With all the talk about "Matty Ice," bettors are ignoring just how well Sam Bradford is playing of late, throwing 6 TDs without a pick over his L4 games! He's posted a QB rating no worse than 87 over that span, and with Steven Jackson healthy and running hard, this St. Louis offense is good enough to stick with Atlanta - given the venue of course.
On the other side of the ball, not only is the Rams defense feature a strong pass rush, but they're also great against the run - which is key against this Falcons offense. Did you know the Rams are tied for 1st in the NFL with 28 sacks? How about their run defense... Did you know they allow only 79 rushing yards per game at home? Before you dismiss this Rams team in this match up, consider the venue, and consider how the Rams strengths counteract the Falcons strengths.
Public is ALL OVER Atlanta in this spot, because they're failing to give credit where credit due. St. Louis has been money lately (7-1 ATS L8), and is a very good team at home. On the other hand, the public is also giving way too much credit to the Falcons, who've proven very vulnerable on the highway. Public bloodbath in the making, but not for my clients. Take the Rams plus the points (remember to buy the insurance as instructed above) over the Falcons Sunday.
Bobby Maxwell
700-Unit NFL Absolute Lock - PITTSBURGH STEELERS
If you don’t think this is a revenge game for the Steelers, you’re crazy. Pittsburgh let the Raiders’ Bruce Gradkowski throw for 223 yards in the fourth quarter last year and the last-place Raiders scored three TDs to beat the Steelers 27-24 and sent Pittsburgh reeling and essentially out of the playoffs.
Now, Pittsburgh comes in off a bad home performance against the Patriots and with some injuries, but I think today you’ll see the Steelers defense step up and dominate this game and bring the offense along for the ride. This game is going to be ugly and I expect the Steelers to win it 28-10.
Even with the ugly outing last week, the Steelers give up just 18.8 points per game at home and just 75 rushing yards per game. They are not going to let Raiders’ RB Darren McFadden have a big day and they are going to force Jason Campbell to throw the ball. He is completing just 57 percent of his throws and has 7 TDs and 5 INTs.
Pittsburgh needs balance on the offensive side and don’t need Ben Roethlisberger making 50 pass attempts. They will get the running game on track with Rashard Mendenhall who has 850 yards rushing this season, seven TDs and no fumbles.
Pittsburgh is 19-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points and 4-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. The Steelers are going to bounce back in a big way and put a hurting on the Raiders. I know Oakland has won some games lately and they are in the thick of things in the AFC West, but they are overmatched today.
Lay the points and play the Steelers.
100-Unit NFL Primetime Pushover - NEW YORK GIANTS
Yes, I saw the way the Eagles and QB Michael Vick completely demolished the Redskins on Monday night. But I’m not going to over-react to it like the rest of the world has. He beat a terrible Washington team that is about to implode. Nothing all that impressive. He faces a real defense tonight and I’m going to grab the points with the Giants, who have been humiliated all week for their performance against the Cowboys.
New York has the NFL’s top-rated defense, allowing just 270.2 yards per game. I know they got shredded by the Cowboys last week, but there was a whole lot of emotion on the Cowboys’ sideline with the firing of Wade Phillips. Today, you’ll see the real Giants’ defense get after Vick and stuff those Eagles’ receivers at the line of scrimmage and not let them get downfield for the deep pass.
Both teams have explosive offenses, with the Eagles averaging 400 yards per game while the Giants average 409.8. New York QB Eli Manning is tied for the NFL lead with 19 TDs and WR Hakeem Nicks is tied for the NFL lead with 9 TD catches. Both teams also rush the ball well with Philly No. 1 in the NFC and New York second.
The key is going to be the pressure coming from the Eagles’ defensive line. They had the record-setting game earlier this season against the Bears, and they have got to get after Vick today and get him to the ground.
The Giants have cashed in four of their last five trips to Philly and the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. New York is also on ATS surges of 21-7 on the road, 13-5 as an underdog and 12-4 as a road ‘dog. Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS at home, 2-5 ATS against NFC East rivals and 1-5 ATS against winning teams. I’m grabbing the points with the Giants in this matchup.
Chris Jordan
Baltimore Ravens
Andy Fanelli
50 Dime - Atlanta Falcons
Brett Atkins
25 Dime - New England Patriots
Chuck O'Brien
50 Dime - Detroit Lions
5 Dime - Detroit Lions ML
15 Dime - Baltimore Ravens
Craig Davis
100 Dime - Green Bay Packers
Jay Mcneil
40 Dime - Indianapolis Colts
Joel Tyson
30 Dime - St Louis Rams
Steve Budin
50 Dime - Baltimore Ravens
Trace Adams
1500* St Louis Rams
500* New England