WUNDERDOG
Cleveland at Detroit
3 units Cleveland +3.5
5 units UNDER 38
This one may be the ugliest game of the year and described by some as the Losers Bowl. Yes, I'm aware that the Browns offense has five TDs in their last 15 games, so let's get that out of the way first. It is hard to defend against that, but when you look at the roster of opponents in those 15 games, you can make a case that their offense isn't as horrible as it first appears. The Browns have faced Cincinnati three times, the Steelers twice, Baltimore twice, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Denver, Minnesota, Tennessee (last year's version at 13-3), and Philadelphia. That means in 13 of their 15 games, they were playing some of the top defenses in the league. The Browns' one win came in one of the two games they weren't playing over their head. They certainly won't be playing over their head in this one vs. a Lions’ team that has one win in their last 25 games. So as bad as Cleveland looks, they are likely not the worst team on the field today. The Browns played just four teams all of last year with a record of under .500 and in those games averaged 18 ppg. That is a far cry from the five total TDs in their last 15 (vs. 13 teams with winning records). This year through nine games, the Browns have faced just two opponents with a losing record and they are 1-1. That equals Detroit's win count in their last 25 games. The Lions have to be playing a bad team to be favored, and during this stretch of one win in 25 games, they have been favored three times and are 0-3 ATS. The Browns may be bad, but at least they have been bad against a lot of very good teams. The Lions have just been bad period and should not be favored. I like the Browns plus the 3.5. I also like the UNDER in this one. The Browns’ last 15 games have seen an average of just under 31 points per game scored, and neither of these teams have enough offense to take advantage of the others deficiencies on defense. After a big defensive effort where they allowed less than 150 passing yards, the Browns are 26-8 to the UNDER and the Lions have played five of their last six at home UNDER. Cleveland is 4-1 UNDER on thee road this season while Detroit is 3-1 UNDER at home. In games played in a dome, the Lions are 17-4 UNDER in their last 21. They are also 10-2 UNDER since last season after a double-digit loss. I like the Brownies in an ugly low-scoring game here.
Seattle at Minnesota
3 units Seattle +11
If there was ever a spot on the Vikings’ schedule to take a breather, this would be it. They are coming off of two division games, and have another one waiting in the wings next week. The Vikings are at 8-1 and have all but clinched the NFC North. The Seahawks, at 3-6 certainly aren't going to get their attention to "bring it" so to speak, this week. Seattle is 0-4 on the road and have not come within 11 points of anyone, so why would they come within 11 of one of the best two teams in the NFC? Because this is the NFL and this is where the money lies. For starters, 8-1 teams as a home double-digit favorite cover just 33% of the time, and have lost 33% of the time straight up! The Seahawks lost two games without Matt Hasselback at QB, so they aren't as crummy as the record looks. Hasselbeck is back in prime form having passed for over 300 yards in each of his last two games. The Seahawks have shown some guts as they have come back in their next game after allowing 30+ points to go 4-0 ATS. The Vikings simply are not a top-notch big chalk team. The last 13 times they have been favored by 10.5 or more, they are a woeful 1-11-1 ATS. They really have been a poor home team against the number as well. This year they are 4-0 straight-up at home but just 1-3 ATS. Going back to last season, they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games! Minnesota is getting a lot of love right now based on their record and coming off a game in which they won by 17 points, allowing just 10 to the Lions. But, under Brad Childress, the Vikings are just 3-12 ATS after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points. I like the Seahawks to hang closer than this line.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
3 units Indianapolis -1
The Colts appear to be a team of destiny this year. They haven't lost a game in over a year (18 games) and turned a sure loss into a win last week in New England. Peyton Manning is having one of his best years ever and that is saying a lot. Winning has been ingrained here and this team expects and wants to win every single one. That mindset is paying dividends. Manning leads the league in completion percent (70%), passing yards (2872) and touchdowns (20). He has a 104.2 passer rating (third best in the league). He's only been sacked eight times on the entire season - less than once per game. Baltimore's defense has looked good the last three games, but that includes games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Denver. Cleveland can't score, Kyle Orton has really struggled of late, and Cincinnati is winning on defense, not offense. Against good offenses and quarterbacks, Baltimore has been lit up this season. They gave up 26 points to Phillip Rivers, 27 to Tom Brady, and 33 to Brett Favre. Baltimore's defense is still thought of by many to be dominant but they really are not. I expect Manning to find success. Joe Flacco has proven himself a very good quarterback and the Ravens have given him a much larger share of the load. But, Indy is 9-2 straight-up the past three seasons vs. QBs that complete 64%+ of their passes. The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games and they have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the Ravens. Even when the Raven's defense was one of the best in the NFL, Manning and the Colts averaged 26 ppg in those contests. Now with Baltimore's defense having slipped, and Indy playing better than anyone, why not expect another Colts win here? Baltimore is 2-7 straight-up the past three seasons vs. teams at .750 or better and they have lost 33 of their last 49 games vs. teams that allow 17 or fewere points per game. Finally, Indy is 10-1 straight-up since last season after an ATS loss. I like the Colts here.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
4 units UNDER 51
It has become a given that the New Orleans Saints games are going to be played against heavily "taxed" totals on the plus side, and no surprise here to see this one pushing over 50. There is an elongated history in the NFL that points to bias regarding high totals in a certain range, and this one is within that threshold. The bias points to totals that are set too high, because the public loves offensive teams and OVERs, and that certainly fits the bill here. Last week New Orleans played to the OVER (thanks to a special teams touchdown). Tampa Bay's anemic offense has caught some fire under Josh Freeman. But the scores are a bit misleading. The reality is 417 yards in two games with two INTs, doesn't show that to be the difference.. So the two games fresh in the minds of the public offset the seven games of averaging 13+ a game? The stats don't say it. The Bucs offense is averaging 276.3 yards per game, and with Freeman at QB in the last two, they have scored 61 points. But the yards average is just about the same at 290.5 (14 yards per game better). Hardly anything that says the Tampa Bay offense is rolling! The Bucs have played eight of their last eleven against a winning team to the UNDER. New Orleans is just 50% over/under this season in division games (which tend to be tighter, harder fought battles). I like this one to go UNDER.
Buffalo at Jacksonville
3 units Buffalo +9
The Buffalo Bills are looking for a change. They fired coach Dick Juaron and elevated Ryan Fitzpatrick to the starter at QB. The Bills will likely be going to the run a lot in this game as Jacksonville ranks just No. 22 against the run and Fred Jackson has had a premier year. If the Bills can get the running game going and shorten the game, nine points will be hard for Jacksonville to overcome as they are likely to employ the same strategy against the Bills who have also had trouble stopping the run. The Bills secondary has made a lot of big plays this season, so the vulnerability here is against the run. This line is predicated on what happened last week. The Bills were torched by a Titans team that is getting its act together after a horrendous start, and the Jags have won two straight. The reality remains that the Jags are a team barely over .500 that has a sub-.500 ATS mark and an 8-17 ATS record dating back to last season. Over that span they are 1-10 ATS as a favorite! So, 9 points here is too much. To put it in perspective, the league’s worst team, the St. Louis Rams, came in here as a 9.5 point underdog and here we have the Bills at +9. The oddsmakers are saying the Bills and Rams are on equal footing? It also should be noted it took the Jags OT to get past the Rams and their two-game winning streak is comprised of wins by 3 points at home against the 2-7 Chiefs, and 2 points vs. the 4-5 Jets. That means that the Jags’ last three wins have come by a total of 8 points against teams with a combined record of 7-20! Hardly a team deserving of such a lofty pointspread. The Bills have covered six of their last eight on the road, while the Jags have struggled to a 2-10 ATS mark in their last 12 at home. Too many points here, I'll go with the Bills.
Atlanta at New York Giants
3 units Atlanta +7
This game has become a pivotal one in the NFC as both of these teams sit at 5-4. The fact that the wildcard race sees four teams in the NFC at 5-4, the winner takes a leg up here while the loser could be in big trouble. The Giants opened the season with five straight wins, but have suddenly dropped four in a row. They own four of their five wins vs. teams that have a combined record of 8-28, so the jury is still out on just how good this team really is. The proof may be in the fact that this Giants team has allowed just 40 points in four games vs. losing teams (10 points per game), but they have been torched for 32.8 ppg in their five games against winning teams. New York's running game has not been as lethal this season, as in seasons' past. They are still gaining a respectable 4.37 yards per carry, but that pales in contrast to the potent land attack they had a year ago when they produced over five yards a pop. That has put QB Eli Manning in more situations of third and long. It has also shown itself in the interception department as Eli threw just 10 picks all last year and this year he has thrown eight already. The Giants No. 1 defensive ranking in yards allowed is misleading as they rank just No. 21 in the league in points allowed - worse than Atlanta. The Falcons have played their best after a straight-up loss where they are now 10-1 ATS, and I would expect their "A" game here which they have brought every time after a loss. This has been a road-dominated series over the years with the road team collecting the cash in the last seven, and that includes Atlanta getting the money in the last four played in New York. My computer matchup for this game has Atlanta keeping this one close. I agree that they will keep it close, and may even win.
MATT FARGO
The deadline was approaching for my weekly suicide pool pick on Tuesday as I was torn between a few teams. Then news broke early afternoon that the Bills had just fired head coach Dick Jauron and that made my decision pretty straight-forward. If you are a general manager or owner and are going to fire your coach, do it Sunday after the game and don’t wait two days into the week to do it. Buffalo was absolutely annihilated in the fourth quarter last week in Tennessee and that certainly finalized the coaching decision as Jauron lost control of that sideline. Now the Bills need to prepare for another road game on a very short week of planning and this just isn’t going to happen. A coaching change mid-season tells us one main thing and that is that the team has called it quits. In other sports, we can sometimes use the coaching change as motivation but not here as there are too few played in a season and too few games remaining. If Buffalo was facing a team that was in a similar position of fighting for a draft pick, this pick would probably not transpire. However, Jacksonville has gotten itself right back into the playoff race. Once left for dead after a 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Seattle, the Jaguars have won three of their last four games and even though the results were close, by a combined eight points, they outgained the opposition in all of those games which make the wins actually more substantial because other variables came into play. Jacksonville is now 5-4 on the season and just a game out of the Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Jaguars are tied with other teams so they will need help but they need to take care of business and they know this. The remaining schedule is very tough with the exception of a couple of games so they cannot falter here. Buffalo has been outgained on the ground in seven straight games no thanks to a rushing defense that is ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 173 ypg and 5.1 ypc. The Bills are the only team in football giving up over half of a first down per carry on the ground. Can Jacksonville exploit this Buffalo rushing defense? I’d say so as Maurice Jones-Drew is fifth in the NFL with 860 yards and he has had 123 or more rushing yards in three of his last four games. On the other side Ryan Fitzpatrick got the call at quarterback over Trent Edwards but that isn’t going to do much for the offense. The Bills will no doubt try and pound the ball and while the Jaguars have allowed a good amount of yards on the ground, they are allowing just 4.3 ypc.The passing defense has been the liability but Buffalo cannot exploit it with the league’s 29th ranked offense. The rushing edge for Jacksonville also puts it into a great angle. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 150 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +13.5 ppg. This is not a must win for the Jaguars but it is as close to it as possible as a loss would be detrimental. Even with the recent personnel changes for the Bills, this line has not done a whole lot. 4* Jacksonville Jaguars
The Giants are coming off the bye week and hopefully they found some answers as to what has been going on the over the last four games. After starting the season 5-0, New York was thumped by the Saints and it has not been the same team since then. Normally this is sign to stay away by some but I think this is the best time to play on teams like this as we get a lot of additional value that we otherwise would not receive has they been playing like they should be playing. Despite the four straight losses, the Giants have outgained two of those opponents and those happened to be the two games played at home against the Cardinals and Chargers. Arizona played a good game and deserved the win but the Chargers had no business winning their game prior to New York’s bye week. All told, the Giants week off could not have come at a better time. Atlanta continues to struggle on the road. The Falcons are 1-4 away from home this season and they have lost the first three in this stretch of four road games in five weeks. Some of the losses have been close but this team is still young and is having trouble away from the dome. Of the nine games played this season, Atlanta has had only one really good game and that was at San Francisco but that was an aberration. The Falcons have been outgained in five of the other eight games and in the other three games where they won the yardage differential, those totals were by 22, 5 and 20 yards. As you can tell, it has been not even close to dominant. Part of the problem was last year’s savior quarterback Matt Ryan. He is playing decent but his passer rating is only 78.8 on the season as he has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes and tossed 12 interceptions. That is one more interception thrown than all of last season and now he will not have main running back Michael Turner to help out. Despite the recent struggles, the Giants are still ranked first in the NFL in total defense. They have been average at getting to the quarterback and Atlanta has done a great job in protecting Ryan and it is imperative for New York to get pressure to help out the secondary. Giants defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan probably will utilize lots of man and zone blitz schemes from all areas of the field to keep Ryan out of his comfort zone. On the other side, the Falcons defense is struggling as it is 24th in the NFL in total defense and they have been particularly weak against the run, allowing 130.3 ypg which is 25th in the league. The Giants running game is ranked seventh in the NFL so they will be able to take advantage and get the offense going once again as it has struggled to put up points the last three games. The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yppl under head coach Tom Coughlin so playing a bad defense can be exploited. Also they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a game where they outrushed the opponent by 75 or more yards. This should be the perfect spot for the Giants to back to its winning ways. 4* New York Giants
Now that JaMarcus Russell has been benched, it is an opportunity once again to take the Raiders. I took them in a similar spot with Russell at quarterback so I will definitely be taking them again in a similar situation without him in the lineup. Oakland dropped another game last week against Kansas City that it could have won. The Raiders have lost two straight games by eight points or fewer ever since getting pounded by the Jets so they have been competitive and have not mailed it in for the year. Oakland has covered four of its nine games this season including two of five at home and those two came against the two best teams on the schedule that came to visit in Philadelphia and San Diego. It is pretty clear that Oakland plays up or down to the competition. The Bengals are coming off a monster win in Pittsburgh, sweeping the Steelers in the process, and coming closer to grabbing the AFC North title. The win was actually the second big one in a row as they defeated Baltimore at home prior to that and Cincinnati is now 5-0 in the division with a change to finish a perfect 6-0 as it faces Cleveland at home next week. That makes a trip to the west coast the last thing on their minds as the division record is the first tiebreaking factor used and a 6-0 record obviously cannot be beat. When I bet against the Eagles out in Oakland a month ago, a lot of the situations were similar as we had an east coast team going west in a game it wanted nothing to do with. After Cleveland, the Bengals host Detroit so from a confidence perspective, the Bengals are thinking 3-0 in the next three games without blinking an eye. One major factor is hurting the Bengals and that is Cedric Benson will not be in uniform this week due to a strained hip. He will be replaced by the newly signed Larry Johnson whose best years have come and gone. Benson is sixth in the NFL in rushing so his absence is huge especially going up against an Oakland defense that has been killed by the run. This would have been a big edge but not anymore and it may be up to Carson Palmer to win it and he has been having trouble as the passing offense is ranked only 19th in the NFL and he is averaging only 6.9 ypa which is 16th. Oakland has been decent against the pass and it has been really good in three of the last four games. The offenses faced have been average but the Bengals have scored 18 or fewer points in five of their nine games. On the other side, Oakland will pound it and try to establish some sort of a running game to keep Cincinnati off the field on offense. Those two recent Cincinnati wins puts Oakland into a great situation. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive wins as an underdog and that have a winning record on the season. This situation is 46-20 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1983. The logic is simple in that underdogs winning two straight games are in store for a letdown and that is what we have here. Cincinnati is the talk of the NFL right now and this is the perfect time to sell high. The Raiders keep another one within reach. 4* Oakland Raiders
I’ve been reading numerous articles pertaining to the Bill Belichick call against the Colts where he decided to go for it on fourth down instead of punting it. I for one thought it was a smart call and a good call as he was trying to win the game right there and then with his offense that had not been stopped all night. There are debates all over the joint and there are opinions that the defense was called out by Belichick saying that he had no choice because he had no trust in his defense and that this call could be a season ending one. Both of those answers are wrong and if anything, this is going to make this team even better. Had the Patriots won that game, this game would be a lot tougher call but coming off a loss, I will take my chances with the Patriots at home. Even bettering those chances is the fact that it is a revenge spot against a hated rival who is completely unraveling. The Jets took out New England in Week Two as they did not allow a touchdown in that game. After that came a win against Tennessee but it has been all downhill since as New York has lost five of its last six games. Four of those came by five points or fewer so it can be argued that the Jets record could be a lot better and I will not disagree with that. However, when these losses pile up, it makes it tougher to recover from and this is the last place that the Jets want to go right now to try and turn their season around. This is the first road test since October 12th when they traveled to Miami as since then there have been three home games, a bye and a trip to lowly Oakland. Watching networks like ESPN really solidifies the fact that people are more concerned about controversy than about reality. This Belichick decision has been the top story since it happened and quite honest, it is already getting old. The big storyline surrounding it is how it will affect the Patriots going forward and if there is one team in the NFL that can rebound and actually improve from it, it’s the Patriots. I certainly expect that here and with the division lead now just two games over Miami, New England knows it cannot slip up especially with a game at New Orleans on deck. The Patriots are 5-0 at home and with four of the final six games being on the road, a slip up here could be devastating. The Patriots are 4-1 this season against teams ranked outside the top ten and that one loss happened to come against the Jets. This game has been circled since that September 20th loss and not only because of the loss itself but because of what was said. The first time around for these two divisional rivals, the Jets relentlessly pressured Tom Brady and came out with the win. You can be sure that this game plan will not change, but the Patriots should be better equipped to handle the overload blitz and give to Brady enough protection to pick apart the Jets’ secondary. We have to remember that the first meeting was only the second game back for Brady after missing all of last season with a knee injury. It is safe to say he is now fully back as his passer rating of 100.6 is fifth in the NFL and four of his last six games have seen a passer rating of 100 or higher after not putting up an average rating of 79.3 through his first three games. His 53.1 rating against the Jets was easily the worst of the season and he no doubt knows it and he wants redemption probably more than anyone. The Patriots have a pretty bad recent record as double-digit favorites however they are 1-1 ATS this season with the lone loss coming by a half-point. Most of those losses came in late 2007 when New England was hit with some huge overinflated lines during its undefeated regular season. It closed 1-8 ATS that season. Coming off a loss, there are not many people I’d rather be behind than Belichick or Brady as the Patriots are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. 5* New England Patriots
The Eagles were a big disappointment last week in San Diego. After losing at home to Dallas and heading out west to avoid a similar outcome like the Raiders game, Philadelphia struggled when it mattered the most and dropped its second straight game. It was fortunate that the red hot Cowboys lost in Green Bay last week so it remains a game out of first place in the NFC East. The rest of the schedule is difficult so there is no spot for anymore letdowns and that definitely includes this week. Being favored on the road may not seem like the right line at first glace but the Eagles have been favored in three of their four road games, going 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming in Oakland. Philadelphia has outgained six of nine opponents and it has not been outgained by more than 61 yards in those three games so the problem is not overall but when the team gets inside the redzone and that is explained further down. The Bears had every chance to win last Thursday night against the 49ers but the offense stalled once again and they managed a mere six points. It was the fifth time they have scored 17 or fewer points on the season and they now have to square off against a peeved off defense that allowed 31 points last week, the second most given up this season. Chicago’s last three wins have come against the Browns, Lions and Seahawks and those three teams are a combined 5-22 so that is not exactly the best résumé. How the Bears defeated the Steelers back in Week Two is beyond me. Philadelphia is ninth in total defense and 12th in scoring defense and the Bears have struggled against the upper end of the league hierarchy. Jay Cutler in particular has had a rough time but his offensive line is just as much to blame. Chicago is 30th in the NFL in rushing offense and that comes down to the execution of the offensive line. That line will face a plethora of blitzes from the Eagles who love bringing pressure and that is what gets Cutler in trouble. The Eagles outgained San Diego by 131 yards in that game but their redzone offense was horrific as they had to settle for three field goals in their first three drives inside the San Diego 20-yard line. This has been an issue all season as the Eagles are 11th worst in the league in touchdown percentage in the redzone. The good news is that the Bears have the second worst redzone defense in the NFL as they have allowed touchdowns in 70 percent of the possessions inside the 20-yard line. Philadelphia will be without Brian Westbrook again this week as he got another concussion and was limited against San Diego. That is not ideal but the Bears defense is not playing well against the team that can take advantage and the Eagles can do exactly that. The Eagles fall into a simple yet very effective angle. Play against home underdogs or that are only averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being a potent +9.2 ppg. Both teams are struggling right now but Philadelphia is in a much better position and the struggles are things that can actually be taken care of this week. 4* Philadelphia Eagles
Teddy Covers
Seattle +11
Washington +11
Philadelphia -3
Stu Feiner
1,000,000 Dime Private play
Dallas
Tim Trushel
20* Jacksonville Under
Oakland Under
Giants Under
Pointwise Phone Service
4* NY GIANTS
3* PITTS, WASHINGTON, UNDER IN DETR/CLEV GAME
2* OAKLAND, ARIZONA, NEW ORLEANS, HOUSTON
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
3% CAROLINA -3 -120 Thursday
3% SAN FRANCISCO +6.5
3% SEATTLE +10.5
3% NY JETS +10.5
DETROIT -3.5 Cleveland 38
Cleveland continued to be horrible on offense last week, gaining just 3.3ypr and a measly 2.1yps for a total of 160 yards at 2.6yppl. Wow! They allowed the Ravens to run for just 3.7ypr but 6.4yps and 4.7yppl. Detroit lost at Minnesota and they were out rushed 4.9ypr to 4.2ypr, out passed 10.6yps to a woeful 3.8yps and out gained overall 7.8yppl to 3.9yppl. On the season, Cleveland averages a woeful 3.6yps against 5.8yps and 3.7yppl against 5.0yppl. The defense is also extremely poor, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Detroit isn’t as bad throwing the ball but still terrible, gaining just 4.7yps against 5.9yps and 4.4yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.5yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Detroit by 4.5 points and predict about 36 points. Cleveland hasn’t scored more than 14 points in a road game this year and that goes back to their last three road games last year. They have averaged less than seven points per game in those last eight road games. Meanwhile, in those same eight road games, they have allowed at least 27 points in all but one of those eight games (a 6-3 win at Buffalo this year). Detroit has gone 11 home games without scoring more than 20 points and averaged 14 points per game during those 11 games. Against the two below average offenses they have faced at home this year, they have allowed 14 and 17 points. I just don’t see how Cleveland can win this game and that probably means they don’t cover either. DETROIT 14 CLEVELAND 10
JACKSONVILLE -8.5 Buffalo 42.5
Jacksonville hung tough and came away with a win at the Jets last week. They rushed for 4.3ypr to just 3.8ypr for the Jets, out passed them 7.4yps to 6.8yps and out gained them overall 5.8yppl to 5.4yppl. Buffalo let the game get away from them in the fourth quarter when they were out scored 24-0. They were out rushed 4.8ypr to 4.5ypr, out passed 8.4yps to 5.4yps and out gained overall 6.3yppl to 5.1yppl. Buffalo struggles to throw the ball, gaining just 5.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.6yppl against 5.5yppl overall. They also allow 5.1ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Jacksonville runs the ball well, averaging just 5.1ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 6.9yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Jacksonville by seven points and predict about 38 points. Jacksonville has won only one game this year by more than seven points. Buffalo has been hit hard by injuries, especially on defense, and this game doesn’t match up well for them at the line of scrimmage. If the line were seven or less, I would consider Jacksonville. JACKSONVILLE 27 BUFFALO 17
Pittsburgh -10 KANSAS CITY 40
Big loss for Pittsburgh last week and nothing fluky about it. They played Cincinnati even from the line of scrimmage at 3.6yppl. They out rushed Cincinnati 4.4ypr to 2.1ypr but were out passed 4.9yps to 3.3yps. KC won at Oakland but did allow 182 yards rushing at 6.1ypr to just 3.6ypr for KC. They out passed Oakland 5.7yps to 2.6yps and out gained them overall 4.7yppl to 4.3yppl. Steelers average 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.3yps against 5.9yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. KC averages just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.7yps against 6.1yps and 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They also lost WR Bowe this week for four games. The defense allows 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 12 and predict about 40 points. KC has lost by at least 11 points in every game against good teams this year except a six point OT loss at home to Dallas but they were blown away in the stats dept. of that game but got a couple of key turnovers. Slight lean to Pittsburgh in this game. PITTSBURGH 27 KANSAS CITY 13
Indianapolis -1.5 BALTIMORE 44
Baltimore started sluggishly last week at Cleveland before doing away with the lowly Browns. They out rushed them 3.7ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed them 6.4yps to 2.1yps and out gained them overall 4.7yppl to 2.6yppl. Indy also started out poorly and then had the miracle win late against NE. They out rushed NE 5.1ypr to 4.0ypr but were out passed 8.3yps to 7.0yps and out gained slightly overall 6.6yppl to 6.5yppl. Indy still struggles to run the ball at 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but average 7.7yps against 6.5yps for a total of 6.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl overall but are still hurting in the secondary with numerous injuries. Baltimore averages 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but 6.1yps against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl. Baltimore will miss Suggs this week and possibly Ngata as well. Baltimore qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 128-66-5, 552-417-30 and 459-300-21. Numbers favor Indy by three points and predict about 45 points. Indy comes off three straight home games and they struggled to win those games over SF, HOU and NE. They won those three home games by 4, 3 and 1 point so nothing was easy. But Baltimore has struggled against better than average teams. Their one win this year was at SD in week two against a banged up Chargers team. I would like to play Baltimore here but their defensive injuries and the fact Peyton Manning seems to find a way to win games makes playing Baltimore tough. And, Manning just needs to win this game. BALTIMORE 27 INDIANAPOLIS 21
NY GIANTS -7 Atlanta 46
Giants come off their bye week and are starting to get healthy. Atlanta comes in off a loss at Carolina that saw them get out gained 6.6yppl to 5.7yppl. They were out passed 8.1yps to 5.5yps but did out rush Carolina 6.1ypr to 5.4ypr although they did get out rushed, yardage wise, 185-176. Atlanta’s running game has finally come around as they average 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr and they average 6.3yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They will most likely with without Michael Turner this week. The defense is still below average, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. The Giants average 6.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Giants by 4.5 points and predict about 52 points. I don’t have enough reasons to play the Giants in this game but I have felt Atlanta was overrated just about all year long. Atlanta has allowed an average of 33 points per game on the road against above average offenses this year. Giants have averaged 27 points at home against below average defenses. Atlanta has averaged 24 points on the road against above average defenses this year (median of 20 points seeing they scored 45 at SF), while the Giants have allowed 23 points at home to above average offenses at home. That leads to a predict final of about 30-23. That works for me. NY GIANTS 30 ATLANTA 23
GREEN BAY -6.5 San Francisco 42
SF had an extra three days to prepare for this game with their Thursday night win over the Bears last week. They out rushed Chicago 3.9ypr to 2.0ypr but were out passed 5.9yps to 4.2yps. Overall, they were out gained 4.8yppl to 4.1yppl. Part of those overall numbers are because Chicago threw the ball 27 more times than SF, leading to the yppl advantage. GB pulled out the win over the Cowboys 17-7, allowing a last minute Cowboy td to break the shutout. GB scored 10 of their 17 points on drives of 20 yards or less. They were out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.8ypr, out passed 4.9yps to 4.5yps, allowing four more sacks although they did sack Tony Romo five times. Overall, Dallas out gained GB 4.8yppl to 4.2yppl. Three Cowboy turnovers aided the Packers. SF still struggles on offense. The rushing game averages 4.4ypr against 4.4ypr but the passing game averages just 5.2yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.5yppl overall. On defense SF allows just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.3yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. The Packers also average 4.4ypr against 4.4ypr and 6.5yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense, they allow just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.8yps against 5.9yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. SF qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 156-77-7. Numbers favor GB by 6.5 points and predict about 42 points. SF plays games close and other than a 35 point loss at home to Atlanta in a game that simply got away from them, they haven’t lost by more than seven points this year and are 3-0-1 ATS on the road as underdogs. Those four games have come against the likes of Arizona, Minnesota, Houston and Indianapolis so they have faced quality teams. They have averaged 19 points on the road against good defenses and allowed an average of 21 points on the road against good offenses. GB changed their philosophy a little bit last week. They are protecting more, going to three step drops, throwing the ball short more often to protect Aaron Rodgers from all the sacks this year. For GB to continue to be effective, they will need to do more of that, allowing their defense to defend long field positions. The 49ers ability to rush the ball, stuff the rush and put pressure on the quarterback should allow them to stay in this game. The situation is a strong situation and worthy of a shot with SF. GREEN BAY 21 SAN FRANCISCO 20
MINNESOTA -10.5 Seattle 46.5
Vikings keep rolling with an easy win over lowly Detroit last week, 27-10. They dominated Detroit, 4.9ypr to 4.2ypr, 10.6yps to 3.8yps and 7.8yppl to 3.9yppl. Seattle jumped out to a lead at Arizona but couldn’t hold on. They rushed the ball for 164 yards at 6.8ypr while allowing Arizona 122 yards rushing at 4.1ypr. The also threw for 308 yards but at just 5.4yps while allowing Arizona 340 yards at 8.9yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.8yppl to 5.8yppl. Seattle averages just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl overall. The defense allows 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. Minnesota continues to improve on offense and now averages 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense allows 5.9yps against 5.6yps and 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl and will probably be without Antoine Winfield again this week. Minnesota qualifies in a couple of letdown situations this week, which are 111-37-3 and 56-26-2. Numbers favor Minnesota by 10.5 points before the situations and predict about 52 points. Seattle is somewhere between the poor teams (Clev, Det, StL, etc) and the next level (GB, Bal, SF, Pit) of teams Minnesota has played this year. Other than the lower tier teams Minnesota hasn’t defeated any of those other teams by more than 12 points and with the exception of that 12 point win over GB, the rest of the games have been decided by seven points or less. Seattle has struggled on the road losing by 13, 17, 21 and 11 points so they have not fared well against the better competition. The line is fair and the situations are very strong in Seattle’s favor and worth a shot. MINNESOTA 30 SEATTLE 27
DALLAS -10.5 Washington 41.5
Dallas lost at GB last week and didn’t play well but they did out gain GB 4.8yppl to 4.2yppl, including out rushing them 4.4ypr to 3.8ypr and out passing them 4.9yps to 4.5yps. Three key turnovers aided GB and 10 of their 17 points came on drives of 20 yards or less. Washington upset Denver 27-17, including out passing them 7.1yps to 5.4yps. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 4.4ypr and out gained Denver 5.5yppl to 5.4yppl. Washington completed a 35 yd touchdown pass on a fake kick, which would bring their overall passing numbers down to 6.2yps without that play. Washington averages just 4.1ypr against 4.5ypr and 5.9yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has played well allowing just 5.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. The Dallas offense has slowed down but they still average 5.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.1yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 13.5 points and predict about 35 points. Dallas has struggled here against Washington the last two years as double digit favorites in high scoring games. Other than a 17 point win in 2006 they haven’t won here against Washington by more than seven points since 2000. I still like Dallas more than Washington to cover this game. Washington hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any game this year until last week and hasn’t scored more than 17 points on the road in any game. They have allowed 23 and 31 points on the road against good offenses. Dallas has averaged 30 points at home against three good defenses, while not allowing more than 17 points at home to below average offenses. DALLAS 27 WASHINGTON 14
New Orleans -11.5 TAMPA BAY 51.5
The Saints continue to show signs of cracking and have been turning the ball over more than they would like in recent weeks. They got away with a five point win at St. Louis last week but turned the ball over three more times. They out rushed the Rams 7.0ypr to 4.9ypr, out passed them 8.0yps to 7.0yps and out gained them 7.5yppl to 6.1yppl. Still nothing wrong with their offense but the defense gave up a lot of yards to the Rams, who have been anemic on offense all year long. TB played tough at Miami but lost 23-25 on a late Miami drive. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 3.9ypr but did out pass Miami 5.8yps against 5.5yps. Overall they were out gained 5.5yppl to 4.9yppl. NO averages 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 8.1yps against 6.2yps and 6.5yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense continues to slip as they allow 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. TB averages just 5.1yps against 5.8yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense, they have really struggled, allowing 4.9ypr against 4.5ypr, 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NO by 15.5 points and predict about 59 points. While the TB passing numbers are down, they have averaged 6.2yps and 5.8yps the last two weeks, which is a huge improvement over their season long average of 5.1yps. The Saints will enter minus their two starting cornerbacks. A depleted defense along with the improved offensive play of TB could be enough to keep them in this game, spread wise. NEW ORLEANS 35 TAMPA BAY 27
Arizona -8.5 ST LOUIS 47
Arizona fell behind last week 14-0 before coming back to win by 11 points. They allowed Seattle to rush for 6.8ypr and 164 yards to 6.1ypr and 122 yards themselves. They did out pass Seattle 8.9yps to 5.4yps and 340-308. Overall they out gained Seattle 6.8yppl to 5.8yppl. The Rams lost at home to NO and allowed 7.0ypr (203 yards), 8.0yps and 7.5yppl (420) but their offense averaged 4.9ypr, 7.0yps and 6.1yppl on 434 yards overall. It was easily their best offensive performance of the year. Arizona averages just 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr but 6.4yps against 6.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense allows 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl after playing so well against the run earlier in the year, they have now allowed 5.8ypr or more in each of their last three games. The Rams average 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The Rams allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. The Rams are vulnerable against the pass and while NO had plenty of balance last week, I don’t see the Cardinals doing that. St. Louis does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 128-66-5. Numbers favor the Cards by 9.5 points and predict about 39 points. Arizona has scored at least 24 points in every road game this year and 31 points against the poor defense they played on the road this year. The Rams have allowed at least 28 points in every home game this year and they have all been against good offensive teams. The Rams have struggled to score points at home all year, somewhat because of turnovers because they have moved the ball at times at home. Knowing the Cards will probably get to at least 28 points, makes it tough to take the Rams but I will lean that way because of the situation. ARIZONA 31 ST LOUIS 23
NEW ENGLAND -10.5 NY Jets 45
NE lost a heart breaker last week with a risky fourth down call on their own 28 yard line with just over two minutes left in the game. They were out rushed 5.1ypr to 4.0ypr but out passed Indy 8.3yps to 7.0yps and slightly out gained Indy 6.6yppl to 6.5yppl. The Jets suffered a big loss at home, 24-22 as they were out rushed 4.3ypr to 3.8ypr, out passed 7.4yps to 6.8yps and out gained overall 5.8yppl to 5.4yppl. NE averages 7.3yps against 6.1yps and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. The Jets average 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has been strong, allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.1yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.3yppl. The Jets qualify in my turnover table, which is 406-260-22 and also qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 83-42-6. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 552-417-30. Numbers favor NE by only eight points and predict about 40 points. The Jets, despite their five losses this year, have been in all of their games. They have lost by 14, 4, 3, 5 and 2 points. The 14 point loss was at NO and they played the Saints tough in that game but gave up two defensive touchdowns. They have also played the Patriots close here in NE the last 10 years during the regular season, not losing a game by more than 10 points, with the exception of a 13 point loss in 2005. I realize the Jets are not in good form and NE is seeking revenge from their loss earlier in NY but there is value, bounce back, contrary and fundamental situations in the Jets favor this week. That is usually a pretty strong combination and they deserve a shot here because of that. Combine that with a solid running game and a solid defense. NEW ENGLAND 24 NY JETS 21
Cincinnati -9 OAKLAND 36
Cincinnati played a solid game at Pittsburgh last week in their win. They were out rushed 4.4ypr to 2.1ypr but out passed the Steelers 4.9yps to 3.3yps. Overall, they were even with Pittsburgh at 3.6yppl. Oakland lost at home to KC, 16-10, although they did out rush KC 6.1ypr to 3.6ypr, including 182 yards rushing. They were out passed 5.7yps to 2.6yps and out gained overall, 4.7yppl to 4.3yppl. Cincinnati averages 6.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The Raiders struggle big time on offense, gaining just 4.1yps against 6.0yps and 4.0yppl against 6.2yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 3.9ypr and 6.7yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Oakland qualifies in my turnover table play, which is 406-260-22. The Bengal’s also qualify in a letdown situation, which is 56-26-2 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 14, before accounting for the situations and predict about 33 points. Cincinnati comes in off a couple of big wins and travels out west in what can easily be classified as a letdown game. Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS as a favorite this year and hasn’t won a road game by more than seven points. But, they haven’t been favored against Oakland yet. The Raiders haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game and that was the first game against SD. Take away that game and they haven’t scored more than 13 points in a home game this year. They’ve averaged 5.5 points at home against better than average defenses, while allowing about 19 points per game at home to above average offenses. Cincinnati has averaged 20 points per game on the road against below average defenses and allowed 20 points to the one below average offense they faced, Cleveland. I would like to play Oakland because they are in a good situation but asking bad teams to do good things for you usually isn’t profitable. I will just lean their way. CINCINNATI 20 OAKLAND 13
San Diego NL DENVER NT
I will come back on Sunday morning once a line is posted for this game.
Philadelphia -3 CHICAGO 45
Philly rushed just 13 times last week compared to 58 pass attempts. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 2.2ypr, out passed 7.9yps to 7.5yps but out gained SD 7.5yppl to 7.0yppl because of 31 more pass attempts. Chicago out played SF in their 10-6 loss to SF, but five Jay Cutler interceptions did them in. They were out rushed 3.9ypr to 2.0ypr but out passed SF 5.9yps to 4.2yps and out gained them overall 4.5yppl to 4.1yppl, also because they threw the ball 27 more times than SF. Philly averages 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.1yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl but are hurting on defense with numerous injuries. Chicago averages just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. The Bears qualify in my turnover table, which is 406-260-22. But, Philly qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 552-417-30 and 459-300-21. Numbers favor Philly by 4.5 points and predict about 48 points. I will lean with Philly and the over in this game. PHILADELPHIA 27 CHICAGO 21
HOUSTON -5 Tennessee 48.5
Houston comes off their bye week, while Tennessee comes in winners of three straight, including three straight covers. They defeated Buffalo 41-17 last week by out scoring Buffalo 24-0 in the fourth quarter. Overall, they out rushed Buffalo 4.8ypr to 4.5ypr (168-89), out passed them 8.4yps to 5.4yps and out gained them overall 6.3yppl to 5.1yppl. Tennessee averages 5.3ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. Houston struggles to rush the ball, averaging just 3.3ypr against 4.3ypr but 7.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. Tennessee qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 81-39-7 and plays against them here. Tennessee qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 552-417-30 and 120-49-8. Numbers favor Houston by four points and predict about 51 points. Tennessee has won five of seven games played here with the two losses by one and ten points. I’ll respect the situation going against Tennessee enough to keep me off of them for a best bet but I will lean their way. Solid running game along with a defense finally getting healthy and getting points to boot. HOUSTON 27 TENNESSEE 24
BRYAN LEONARD
AFC SUPER PLAY
New York at New England
The Jets are fading fast after taking care of the Patriots 16-9 in the earlier meeting. New York has dropped 5 of their last 6 games with the only victory coming against the Raiders. They have lost two key cogs along the defensive line which has really slowed down their pass rush. Offensively New York has struggled a bit against questionable defenses. In fact, if you look at whom the Jets have played you can make a case that the offense is actually worse than the numbers would show.
The Patriots are off an embarrassing loss last week to the Colts. They had that game firmly in their grasp and let it slip away. Now they are back home looking to avenge the earlier loss to the hated Jets. Wes Welker didn't play in that meeting and his absence was a major reason why Brady struggled. That and it being his second game back since his season ending injury. New England has been money in the bank off a loss under Belichick. This year alone they covered the spread by margins of 12 and 50 points after suffering defeats.
New York has played the Patriots tough the past few seasons but this is a game in which New England will run up the score if given the chance. Remember that 59-0 victory over Tennessee earlier this season.
PLAY NEW ENGLAND
Bob Valentino
50 DIME: BALTIMORE RAVENS
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 AFC DOG OF THE YEAR on Oakland Raiders +10
HUGE letdown spot for Cincinnati here. The Bengals are now in control of the AFC North, sweeping their season series with both Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Coming off their 18-12 road win over the Steelers last week, it's only human nature that the Bengals have a letdown on the road against Oakland Saturday. Now we're not saying the Raiders are for sure going to pull off the upset, but we are saying there's no chance in hell Cincinnati comes away with a double-digit victory on the road. It's always tough for an East Coast travel out to the West Coast, which is just another factor that favors the Raiders here. RB Cedric Benson, one of the top backs in the league, may not play Sunday for Cincinnati. That's why they signed Larry Johnson, and without Benson at full strength this team just isn't the same. Oakland will be able to blitz the hell out of the Bengals, which is something they found to be very effective against the Eagles a few weeks back as they upset Philly 13-9 at home as 14-point underdogs. The Bengals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Cincinnati is clearly overrated right now after their fast start with big wins over good teams, but that's why the dog is showing so much value Sunday and we'll take advantage. Take the Raiders as our 2009 AFC DOG OF THE YEAR Sunday! (Recommend Buying to +10)
5* Wiseguy NBC Sunday Night Parlay (Side) on Eagles -3/OVER 45
The Eagles aren't about to drop 3 straight games. They did lose to Dallas at home, and to the Chargers on the road, both games they easily could have won. The Bears lost 21-41 in their last home games against Arizona, allowing 256 passing yards and 5 touchdowns from Kurt Warner. They also gave up 182 rushing yards to the Cardinals in that game. The Bears are simply beat up defensively, and they don't have the caliber of players who can stop one of the best offenses in the league in the Eagles. Philly puts up 26.9 points/game this season, and Donovan McNabb is coming off a career day against the Chargers last week with 433 passing yards. He has been torching opposing defenses all year with weapons such as Jackson, Celek, Maclin and Avant. Not to mention LeSean McCoy, who is great at catching the ball out of the backfield and will play a key role tonight. Cutler doesn't have the same kind of weapons McNabb does, and that's why he is having to force balls, which has led to just 14 touchdowns and 17 intercetpions from Cutler this season. Home-field hasn't been much of an advantage when these teams meet up. The road team is 4-1 S.U. in the last 5 meetings. Chicago simply has a lot more problems that need ironed out than the Eagles do, making Philly the right play tonight. McNabb has thrown 12 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, so he can be trusted a lot more than Cutler can Sunday night. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. They always tend to bounce back following a loss, and coming off 2 losses we cannot see any scenario where they lose Sunday night. Take the Eagles and lay the points.
5* Wiseguy NFL "BLOOD BATH" of the Week on New York Giants -6.5
Off 4 straight losses and off a bye week, it's now or never for New York. We're going to predict that they get the job done Sunday and win by at least a touchdown against an Atlanta Falcons' team that is falling fast. Atlanta has lost 3 straight road games by 9, 8 and 16 points. Now, Michael Turner is doubtful to play Sunday with an injury, leaving the Falcons short-handed against a very hungry Giants' team that has had a bye week to get healthy. The Giants are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Atlanta will be forced to try and move the ball through the air Sunday, and that will play right into the Giants' hands. Matt Ryan threw 2 interceptions in a 21-37 road loss at Dallas, 3 interceptions in a 27-35 road loss at New Orleans, and 2 more interceptions in a 19-28 road loss at Carolina during their 3-game road losing streak. He is making mistakes because nobody is getting open on the outside, and teams are able to key in on Tony Gonzalez to take away their best weapon. New York has had 2 weeks to prepare for Ryan and the Falcons, and they'll have the perfect game plan to come away with a blowout home win as they force Atlanta's QB into more mistakes, while taking care of the ball themselves and getting back to running the football. Take the Giants and lay the points.
4* on Washington Redskins +12
Washington always seems to play the Cowboys tough. Now coming off a huge win over the Broncos, the Redskins finally have some positive vibes to build off of as they head to the "Big D" Sunday. Washington is 5-3 S.U. and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Cowboys. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 5 points or less, with the lone exception being a 27-6 home win for Washington in 2007. You have to go all the way back to their first meeting of 2006 to find the last time the Redskins lost by double-digits to the Cowboys. Dallas was exploited last week against Green Bay, and this team is not as good as their 6-3 record indicates. Washington has allowed just 19.0 points/game this season, and their defense alone gives the Redskins a great chance to pull off this upset Sunday. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Dallas is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. NFC East foes. The Redskins are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Take Washington and the points.
4* on Buffalo Bills +9
Jacksonville is 5-4 this season, but only 1 of their 5 wins have come by more than 7 points. That came at home against Tennessee early in the season as they caught the Titans playing their worst football of the season. The Jaguars should not be this heavily favored Sunday, and the only reason they are is due to their big road win last week against the Jets by 2 points. The Jaguars have won back-to-back home games, but needed overtime to beat the Cardinals by 3 points and they managed to beat the Chiefs by just 3 points in their last home contest as well. Buffalo is better than both those squads, and the firing of Dick Jauron should give this team a much-needed change. Jauron doesn't get the most out of his players because he is too passive. A head-coaching change will give these players a jump-start, and we would not be surprised one bit to see Buffalo pull off this upset. They were tied 17-17 with the Titans in the fourth quarter on the road last week before giving that game away. But Trent Edwards was returning from a concussion last week, and in his second game back against the Jaguars we fully expect him to be much more efficient. Jackonsville is scoring just 20.1 points/game and allowing 24.4 points/game, not numbers you would expect from a team with a 5-4 record through 9 games. This line has been inflated based off of public perception, and that's why all the value is on the Bills here Sunday. The Bills are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Needless to say, the Jaguars are terrible in the role of the favorite. Take Buffalo and the points.
4* on San Francisco 49ers +7
We'll take the touchdown on the 49ers, who have been very competitive on the road this season. Though the 49ers are 1-3 SU on the road, they are 3-0-1 ATS. San Francisco has lost 3 road games all by 3 points each, and they also have a road win over the Cardinals. So they have yet to lose a road game by more than 3 points. They brand of football they play gives them a chance to win every game, which is with a solid running game and a stout defense. Defensively, they give up just 88 rushing yards/game and 3.3 yards/carry. They will stop the Packers' running game, and make Aaron Rodgers try to beat them. When Rodgers does that, he is very prone to making mistakes. With their huge win over the Cowboys last week, 17-7, this is certainly a letdown spot for Green Bay. The 49ers have had 3 extra days to prepare for the Packers after playing on Thursday last week. This will also be a big factor heading into this showdown. Under Mike Singletary, the 49ers are 6-2-1 ATS in 9 road games. The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. This team is at their best in the role of the dog as the preceeding trend indicates. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Take the 49ers and the points. (Recommend Buying to +7)
Sup Blade! any Kyle Bales? ;D
Mike Lineback
4* Detroit Lions -3 -115
4* Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5 -120 (1 pt buy)
4* Orlando Magic -3
Carlo Campanella
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
For those who don't think that Cincinnati (7-2) is for real, and will win the AFC North, they have already beaten their 2 biggest Division rivals, Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each, and that 4-0 record will allow them to win any tie-breaker. Cincinnati comes off an impressive 18-12 win at Pittsburgh last Sunday and now heads Oakland knowing they are 6-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. In their only other back-to-back road games this season, they impressively defeated Baltimore 17-14 as 8-point dogs. With Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit their next 3 games on the schedule, these Bengals know that it's time to step up their game, as they can easily extend their Division lead against these opponents that combine for a 4-22 record this season. No letdown here, as the Bengals defense ranks #2 against the run and held a tough Pittsburgh ground attack to just 80 yards on 18 carries last Sunday. With Oakland benching starting QB Russell for inexperienced QB Gradkowski, expect the Bengals to key on the run and force the Raiders to pass the ball. Lay the lumber with road favorite Cincinnati improves on their 3-1 ATS road record this season.
10* Play On Bengals
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3* Seattle +10.5