Evan Altemus
Atlanta vs. New York
Atlanta is in a horrible spot here. They are coming off of a road loss to a Carolina team that didn’t look very good a mediocre Miami, despite playing at home. They will also be without starting running back, who is arguably their MVP on offense. He is one of the best running backs in the league and is the main part of the offense. Matt Ryan and the Falcons have also struggled on the road this season, losing both straight up and against the spread to New England, Dallas, and Carolina. They also were very close to failing to cover at New Orleans, in a game that the Saints controlled for the most part. New York meanwhile is a little more healthy than usual on defense and used their bye week to rest up and prepare for this game. The Giants are also coming off of four straight losses, so there is no doubt that they will be fully focused and prepared for this game. Look for New York to dominate Atlanta.
3 UNIT SELECTION GIANTS
Rocketman
Philadelphia vs. Chicago
Philadelphia is 132-91 ATS since 1992 against conference opponents. Philadelphia is 27-13 ATS since 1992 against NFC North division opponents. Chicago is 1-5 ATS this year in all games when the total is between 42 1/2 and 49 points. Philadelphia is scoring 26.9 points per game overall this year. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Eagles are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Eagles are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC. Eagles are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Bears are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games on grass. Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November. Bears are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC. Bears are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Bears are 1-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. We'll play Philadelphia for 3 units tonight!
Tony George
Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City
KC thin at RB, OL, and their best WR Bowe is out. With no offensive line, Pitt will destroy QB Cassel. Off a home loss last week in embarrassing fashion, expect the Steelers to bring their A game as they are in a dogfight for their division. Kansas City has no chance in this spot with depleted talent and no passing attack that will work. KC gives us big yards on the ground and they have no answer for Holmes and Ward at WR, especially with little or no pass rush.
Play 1 Unit on Pitt
Marc Lawrence
Philadelphia vs. Chicago
The Eagles take on the Bears in Chicago in a matchup of teams each riding two-game losing streaks. Bad news for the Bears is QB Jay Cutler's horrific 3-15-1 ATS mark in his NFL career as a starter at home when his team's win percentage is .444 or greater, including 0-11 ATS when the Over/Under total in the game is more than 43 points. Add to that Chicago's 0-5 SU and ATS mark in games under head coach Lovie Smith versus a greater than .400 opponent off back-to-back losses. On the flip side, the Eagles are 8-0 SU and ATS versus a .500 or less opponent off back-to-back losses when Philadelphia is off a loss. The clincher is the fact that NFL favorites with a winning record in Game Ten of the season, playing off back-to-back losses, are 13-0 SU and ATS versus a .750 or less opponent off a win or loss of less than ten points. Lay the points here tonight. Play On: Philadelphia Eagles.
Lenny Del Genio
Buffalo vs. Jacksonville
The old take the team after they fire their coach angle. Last year, we used this angle when Jim Haslett took over in St. Louis and were rewarded with an outright Rams win in Washington. Now we try with the Bills. Jacksonville is the worst home favorite in the league, going 0-8 ATS in that role. In fact, they are just 1-10 vs. the number the last 11 times laying points. Three of their five wins this season have come as underdogs. When favored against Kansas City and St. Louis, they won those games by a combined six points. Despite coming in with a winning record, the Jaguars have a negative point differential on the year. All but two of the last eight games in this series have been decided by six points or less. Last year, Buffalo beat Jacksonville 20-16. The Bills biggest problem is clearly protecting the QB, but the Jags have the fewest sacks in the league. Buffalo plays its best football on the road, going 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. Take Buffalo.
MATT FARGO
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
3 Units: Washington Redskins +11
I think this line is simply too high fro a divisional matchup that is one of the bigger rivalries in football. The Redskins are coming off a much needed with last week at home against the Broncos and that momentum should carry right into this game. While the season has been closed shut by many, a win here and Washington is just two games back in the NFC East. Granted there are three teams in front but there is always the possibility and this team should rise to the occasion once again. Despite losing six of nine games this season, Washington has either outgained or been even statistically with its opponent in seven of those games including seven of the last eight. The two games that the Redskins were on the wrong end of the stat chart they were outgained by only 79 and 50 yards. The Cowboys are coming off that loss in Green Bay that has people scratching their heads once again. I was on the Packers so it was not a surprise to me and now the thinking is that it will be a big bounce back for the Cowboys. I don’t think it is that easy. Dallas struggled on offense and it was criticized for not running the ball much so we are going to see the Cowboys take it to the ground more. The Redskins know this and we may see more interior stunts and zone run blitzes from the Redskins to counter. Tony Romo had a pretty bad game last week and he has been known to bounce back but as inconsistent as he is, we could easily see another blowup. The Redskins will be without Clinton Portis once again due to a concussion but Ladell Betts filled in very well last week and that came against a solid Broncos defense. He rushed for 114 yards on 26 carries (4.4 ypc) and overall Washington ran for 174 yards against Denver. Quarterback Jason Campbell takes a lot of heat but he has put together three straight solid performances with passer ratings of 91.6, 92.2 and 100.3. In three career starts against the Cowboys he has an 87.6 passer rating and the Redskins have won two of those three meetings, including last year in Dallas, 26-24 when they were underdogs of right around the same number. Washington will need to force turnovers as in Dallas’ three losses, it has nine turnovers while in the six wins, it has only five. That loss to the Packers last week by Dallas sets Washington up in a very good angle. Play against divisional home favorites of 10.5 or more points that are coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1983. It is very simple yet effective and has stood the course as it goes back 26 years. Washington is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against teams that average 260 or more passing ypg in the second half of the season. The Cowboys are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points while under underdog has been a solid proposition in this series, covering 20 of the last 27 meetings. 3* Washington Redskins
Joey Torelli
4* Arizona Cardinals -7
3* Steelers -10
Master Sports
4'* Phoenix -10
4* Boston -9
3* New Orleans +8
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Baltimore
Billionaire - Oakland
No Limit - Chicago
Perfect Play - Dallas
Legend - Denver
Fav Of Week - Detroit
TV GOW - Jets
RAS
One Unit Each
San Jose +1.5
IUPUI -3
NSA
20* Pittsburgh
20* NY Giants
10* Colts
10* Washington
10* Bengals
Rainman
5* Giants
3* Arizona
3* San Diego
1* Indy
1* New Orleans
KELSO
15 Units Colts (-1½) over Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens have one major weakness—the inability of its defense to stop the long passes thrown down the field and now it faces the master of this element of NFL football. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has the ability to pick the Ravens to pieces and will nail the defense on every mistake it makes.Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.
5 Units NY Giants (-7) over Falcons
The Giants come off a bye week, have almost everyone healthy for the first time in a month and have had excellent practices this week. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is struggling and will find it tough sledding against a defensive that will bring it just as it did when the Giants opened 5-0. The figures and the circumstances say the real Giants will show up today. It will not help Atlanta that it will most likely be without running back Michael Turner (injury) who has averaged 9.1 yards per carry in his last three games. The absence of Turner will put even more pressure on Ryan—and that certainly is not a helpful situation.Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.
200 Units Patriots (-10½) over Ny Jets
The New England Patriots have everything working for them in this one. First of all, the stubbed their toe in that embarrassing 35-34 loss at Indianapolis last week and have a long history of bouncing back off losses such as that, raining fire and brimstone on their next opponent. Now factor into the equation, the fact the Jets beat the Patriots 16-9 in the second game of the season and the revenge factor is in play and New England Coach Bill Belichik has a long history of getting even. It also is important to note the Jets are really struggling with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. They opened the season 3-0 and have since gone 1-5. It all adds up to a long afternoon for New York as it takes on a New England team with better talent and a bad attitude.Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
LARRY NESS
Weekend Wipeout Winner-NFL (won 5 of L6 NFL weeks)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. The Giants opened the 2009 season 5-0 but a closer look at the schedule revealed that the team's lone quality win came at Dallas and the Giants won that contest with a FG on the game's final play. The Giants were exposed by the Saints in Week 6, losing 48-27 in New Orleans. Three more losses followed and the Giants are coming off their bye week on a four-game losing streak. Giants head coach Tom Coughlin gave his team four days off during its bye week, hoping the Giants can save what seemed like a promising season with a much-needed win. That win looked as if it was going to come in Week 9 but the Giants allowed San Diego to drive 80 yards in the final two minutes for the winning TD in what turned into a 21-20 win by the Chargers. New York got help during the bye as the teams above it in the NFC East, Dallas and Philadelphia, both lost. The Giants are in a second-place tie with the Eagles and one game behind the Cowboys heading into Week 11. It also helped New York that the Falcons (a wild card challenger) lost last Sunday, 28-19 at Carolina. The Falcons opened the 2009 season 4-1 but they've lost THREE of their last four. QB Ryan, outstanding as a rookie, had a 9-4 ratio in Atlanta's 4-1 start but he barely completed 50 percent of his passes these last four games (60-of-118 or 50.8%) while throwing eight INTs (five TDs). More importantly, Atlanta lost RB Turner in last week's game at Carolina. Turner gained 1,699 yards last year (106.2 per game) but struggled out of the gate in 2009. He averaged just 67.2 YPG through Atlanta's first six games but ran for 151, 166 and then 111 yards (in just nine carries) vs Carolina before getting hurt in the second quarter. Turner will not play and that's a HUGE loss for the Falcons, putting even more pressure on the struggling Ryan. While the Giants have not run as well as last year (Brandon Jacobs has yet to record a 100-yard effort and Ahmad Bradshaw's production is down to 35.0 yards per game during the skid compared to 75.0 in the 5-0 start), Atlanta has allowed 130.3 YPG (4.6 YPC) on the ground which ranks 25th in the league. The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for the Giants and with all their problems on the defensive side of the ball, the Giants enter this game allowing 274.4 YPG, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL. Atlanta's lost FOUR of five road games this year, losing its last three while allowing 33.3 PPG. Expect the Giants to roll in this one, as the Falcons play the perfect foil. Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* NY Giants.
Oddsmaker's Error-NFL Week 11 (4-1 or 80% run L6 weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. Peyton Manning connected with Reggie Wayne on a one-yard TD pass with 13 seconds to play to clinch a 35-34 win over the Patriots last Sunday night. The game-winning four-play, 29-yard drive came after New England head coach Bill Belichick elected to go for it on 4th-and-two from his own 28 with 2:08 remaining. Brady's pass to Kevin Faulk came a yard short and the rest is history. The Colts haven't lost a regular season game in nearly 13 months. Indy is 9-0 for the third time in five years and its 18-game winning streak (which dates back to a loss at Tennessee on Oct 27, 2008) is three shy of New England's mark for the longest in league history. Manning, a three-time NFL MVP, is making a strong case for a 4th award. He leads the league in completion percentage (69.7), passing yards (2,872) and TD passes (20), while ranking third in passer rating (104.2). All this despite a running game which ranks 29th (86.0 YPG / 3.9 PC). Indy's defense allowed 34 points and 477 yards to the Pats last Sunday night but still ranks No. 1 in points allowed (15.8) and 12th in total yards (322.7 YPG). The Colts just completed a three-game homestand in which they've won by four over the 49erers (laying 13), three over the Texans (laying 7 1/2) and then last Sunday night's game. The Colts are LONG overdue for a loss and the Ravens are just the team to do it. The Baltimore 'D' is not as dominating as in years' past but the offense is greatly improved. Flacco is averaging about 60 YPG more in passing yards, has 12 TD passes (just 14 all of LY) and a QB rating of 90.7 (80.3 LY). Rice (662 yards / 5.2 YPC / 6 TDs plus 49 catches) has quickly developed into one of the league's most versatile backs plus this is the best receiving group Baltimore has had since the franchise relocated from Cleveland. Mason is the wily vet, Clayton and Washington have been solid plus TE Heap keeps getting better. The Colts are running away in the AFC South (lead by four games), while the Ravens can only hope to somehow grab one of two AFC wild card spots from a very crowed field. The Steelers are up next (here in Baltimore), making this the team's biggest two-game stretch of the season. First things first. The Ravens end Indy's perfect season right here! Oddsmaker's Error 15* Bal Ravens.
KBHoops
5* Dallas Cowboys -10.5 *POD*
5* Baltimore Ravens +1.5
5* Dayton Pk
5* Charlotte Bobcats -1
5* Miami Heat -9