Frank Patron
20000 Unit Lock
Cincinnati Bengals -9.5
Seabass
Steam 100* Raiders
Craig Davis
No, I'm not insane. My biggest NFL play of the season is on the hapless Oakland Raiders for a number of reasons. First I want you to know I'm not chasing a loss, because I've won the last two days and have won 20 of the last 27 days, including a few 50-dime winners and a 75-dime winner in college football a few weeks ago. This is a game I've been promoting since Monday when I first saw the point spreads. Anyone who has been following me knows I've been talking about this game for a while, and since the number is basically the same as it was then, I'm all over it and I'm suggesting that you should be too. Remember, I'm 10-3-1 with all my selections 75 dimes and higher. I plan to make that 11-3-1 after today.
Bear with me as I offer a few explanations as to why I like the Raiders so much. First off, let's look at the Bengals. They are clearly the most surprising team in the AFC... yes, even more surprising than Denver at this point. They've beaten both the Ravens and Steelers TWICE this year and will have to completely melt down to NOT win the AFC North. They enter today's game off a grueling 18-12 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and before that they handed the Ravens a 17-7 setback at home. In fact, this team has played three masterful games in a row, defensively, and are more than due for a huge letdown. No team in the NFL, no matter how good they are, can be "on" every single Sunday. Occasionally these NFL teams tend to "take the week off" in preparation for a team they know they should beat. This is one of those spots for Cincy. It's completely ridiculous to ask these guys to travel all the way across the country and be "fired up" to play a 2-7 Oakland team... especially after the type of emotional games they've had to endure recently.
Look back at October 4th @ Cleveland. The Bengals entered that game off wins against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and a near-win over Denver in the first week of the season. All three of those games were decided by 7 points or less and all came down to the wire. So they go to Cleveland, a team they knew they should beat, and it took every bit of overtime for them to get a 23-20 win. This is an identical situation to that one, only their traveling 3000 miles this time to play an Oakland team that, honestly, no one wants to play out there... especially Cincinnati. The Bengals are 0-9 all time in Oakland. That's right --- this franchise has NEVER beaten the Raiders on the road in 9 tries in franchise history. Their last loss came back in 2003, 23-20, and before that it was 1998, 27-10. I've always told you it's hard for a western team to go east and vice versa... even more so when a team has never won in the place they're going. Cincy will have its work cut out for them today, as I see this game going down to the wire.
The Bengals were completely clueless, offensively, last week when Cedric Benson left the game. They didn't score a single offensive touchdown the entire game, and QB Carson Palmer was very average, completing 18 of 30 passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns. Why do you think they picked up Larry Johnson? I think the Bengals are telling us Benson's injury might be worse than first thought and they don't really trust rookie Bernard Scott (13 for 33 last week). The reason this is important is because if the Raiders have a weakness on defense it's against the run. That plays right into our hands today because it was going to take someone like Benson for the Bengals to have any consistency in the running game against Oakland. Even against the Raiders I don't see Scott running for more than about 3 yards per carry... and why should we... he's a rookie getting his first start (most likely). And as good as Cincy's pass game has been so far this season, I'm not sure they've seen a pass defense quite as good as what they're going to see today.
Oakland allows just 190 yards per game through the air at home, and having faced QBs like Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb, that's saying a lot. As you know I'm big into fantasy football, and the Raiders rank 6th in the NFL against opposing fantasy QBs. That means they don't, on average, allow much yardage and they rarely surrender passing TDs. No reason to think that changes today. The way to beat Oakland is to run it down their throats... and it's no surprise that the Raiders defense ranks 29th against fantasy RBs. Obviously, that means running backs are gouging this team for yards and TDs, much more so than QBs. And again, that helps us tremendously because I have absolutely no faith in Bernard Scott, Brian Leonard or even Larry Johnson. Mark my words... the Bengals will have trouble moving the ball on most drives because of these factors.
If you look at all of Oakland's home games this year, you'll see an eerie similarity in the games in which they were hammered (23-3 to Denver and 38-0 to the NY Jets) and the games they competed (13-9 win over Philly, 24-20 loss to San Diego, and 16-10 loss to Kansas City). In their two blowout losses, the Raiders allowed both the Broncos and Jets to run for over 200 yards as a team. In the tighter games, the running games were limited and the scores were obviously more competitive because Oakland can play pass defense with anyone in the league. Trust me, Chad Ochocinco is going to have his hands full with Nnamdi Asomugha... and with him expected to be limited (see last week) in that matchup, that leaves Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell to pick up the slack. Remember, the Bengals lost Chris Henry two weeks ago and won't have his services in the passing game the rest of the season. That's a bigger loss than many people really understand... and it's going to show it's ugly head again today. Bottom line: Cincinnati will struggle to move the ball much of the day.
As for Oakland, I realize there's not much to get excited about. I mean, we are talking about a 2-7 team. But we're catching them at home after a home loss (no travel) against a team that has now traveled back-to-back weeks and it coming a long way to be here today. We're also catching the Bengals off two straight emotionally draining victories that gave them a little breathing room in the AFC North. And I really like the fact Oakland made the decision to move QB JaMarcus Russell to the bench in favor of Bruce Gradkowski. Are we getting a top notch starter here? No, obviously we aren't. But I believe it's an upgrade at the QB position who isn't afraid to stand in the pocket and take a hit in order to deliver an accurate pass, but is also mobile enough to tuck it away and move the ball with his legs. Gradkowski used to be the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs under Jon Gruden, so it's not like he's coming into this game with no experience. He also gets to work with a healthy bunch of wide receivers, including Chaz Schilens, who was the best receiver the Raiders had in the pre-season. Let's also not forget TE Zach Miller. Not only is he a viable threat in the passing game, but the one area of weakness in the Bengals secondary is keeping an eye on opposing TEs (nearly 50 yards and 0.8 TDs per game to TEs).
As for Oakland's running game, they have all three of them healthy and ready to go, which gives Tom Cable the ability to go with the "hot hand". If Justin Fargas is running well, they'll stick with him. If not, they can fall back on Michael Bush or Darren McFadden. Bush and McFadden are both capable of catching the ball out of the backfield too, so don't be surprised if Gradkowski checks down to his backs often. The Raiders run for nearly 140 yards per game at home, and this will accomplish two things. First, it keeps the clock moving while the Raiders are slowly moving the ball down the field. Second, it keeps Carson Palmer and the Bengals offense off the field.
Look, I know this isn't a sexy pick, but it's as strong as I've had in the NFL since my Super Bowl winner on Arizona last year. It's stronger than my easy (ugly) winner on the Rams last week. Dogs are covering the number more and more ever week in the NFL, and I've been tuned in for weeks. Plus, Cincy doesn't play the role of favorite very well. They're just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite, and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Just not a good role for the Bengals here today. This one will come down to the wire. Maybe the Bengals win, maybe they don't... but I just don't see them winning by more than 10 points. If the Bengals were the pick, why did the number open at 10, then 70-75% of the public action came in on the Bengals, and now the line has dropped a half-point to 9.5? That clearly tells me Vegas is begging you to take the Bengals giving way too many points in this one, as they haven't won a road game all year by more than 7 points and have only accomplished that feat just once all year. Too many factors playing against the Bengals today, so I'm siding with the Raiders as my top NFL play of the year thus far.
LARRY NESS
Weekend Wipeout Winner
The Giants opened the 2009 season 5-0 but a closer look at the schedule revealed that the team's lone quality win came at Dallas and the Giants won that contest with a FG on the game's final play. The Giants were exposed by the Saints in Week 6, losing 48-27 in New Orleans. Three more losses followed and the Giants are coming off their bye week on a four-game losing streak. Giants head coach Tom Coughlin gave his team four days off during its bye week, hoping the Giants can save what seemed like a promising season with a much-needed win. That win looked as if it was going to come in Week 9 but the Giants allowed San Diego to drive 80 yards in the final two minutes for the winning TD in what turned into a 21-20 win by the Chargers. New York got help during the bye as the teams above it in the NFC East, Dallas and Philadelphia, both lost. The Giants are in a second-place tie with the Eagles and one game behind the Cowboys heading into Week 11. It also helped New York that the Falcons (a wild card challenger) lost last Sunday, 28-19 at Carolina. The Falcons opened the 2009 season 4-1 but they've lost THREE of their last four. QB Ryan, outstanding as a rookie, had a 9-4 ratio in Atlanta's 4-1 start but he barely completed 50 percent of his passes these last four games (60-of-118 or 50.8%) while throwing eight INTs (five TDs). More importantly, Atlanta lost RB Turner in last week's game at Carolina. Turner gained 1,699 yards last year (106.2 per game) but struggled out of the gate in 2009. He averaged just 67.2 YPG through Atlanta's first six games but ran for 151, 166 and then 111 yards (in just nine carries) vs Carolina before getting hurt in the second quarter. Turner will not play and that's a HUGE loss for the Falcons, putting even more pressure on the struggling Ryan. While the Giants have not run as well as last year (Brandon Jacobs has yet to record a 100-yard effort and Ahmad Bradshaw's production is down to 35.0 yards per game during the skid compared to 75.0 in the 5-0 start), Atlanta has allowed 130.3 YPG (4.6 YPC) on the ground which ranks 25th in the league. The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for the Giants and with all their problems on the defensive side of the ball, the Giants enter this game allowing 274.4 YPG, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL. Atlanta's lost FOUR of five road games this year, losing its last three while allowing 33.3 PPG. Expect the Giants to roll in this one, as the Falcons play the perfect foil. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the NY Giants (7.5*).
Oddsmaker's Error
Peyton Manning connected with Reggie Wayne on a one-yard TD pass with 13 seconds to play to clinch a 35-34 win over the Patriots last Sunday night. The game-winning four-play, 29-yard drive came after New England head coach Bill Belichick elected to go for it on 4th-and-two from his own 28 with 2:08 remaining. Brady's pass to Kevin Faulk came a yard short and the rest is history. The Colts haven't lost a regular season game in nearly 13 months. Indy is 9-0 for the third time in five years and its 18-game winning streak (which dates back to a loss at Tennessee on Oct 27, 2008) is three shy of New England's mark for the longest in league history. Manning, a three-time NFL MVP, is making a strong case for a 4th award. He leads the league in completion percentage (69.7), passing yards (2,872) and TD passes (20), while ranking third in passer rating (104.2). All this despite a running game which ranks 29th (86.0 YPG / 3.9 PC). Indy's defense allowed 34 points and 477 yards to the Pats last Sunday night but still ranks No. 1 in points allowed (15.8) and 12th in total yards (322.7 YPG). The Colts just completed a three-game homestand in which they've won by four over the 49erers (laying 13), three over the Texans (laying 7 1/2) and then last Sunday night's game. The Colts are LONG overdue for a loss and the Ravens are just the team to do it. The Baltimore 'D' is not as dominating as in years' past but the offense is greatly improved. Flacco is averaging about 60 YPG more in passing yards, has 12 TD passes (just 14 all of LY) and a QB rating of 90.7 (80.3 LY). Rice (662 yards / 5.2 YPC / 6 TDs plus 49 catches) has quickly developed into one of the league's most versatile backs plus this is the best receiving group Baltimore has had since the franchise relocated from Cleveland. Mason is the wily vet, Clayton and Washington have been solid plus TE Heap keeps getting better. The Colts are running away in the AFC South (lead by four games), while the Ravens can only hope to somehow grab one of two AFC wild card spots from a very crowed field. The Steelers are up next (here in Baltimore), making this the team's biggest two-game stretch of the season. First things first. The Ravens end Indy's perfect season right here! Oddsmaker's Error on the Bal Ravens (8*).
NFL Total of the Week
It's reunion time for Kurt Warner as he leads his defending NFC champs into St Louis, 10 years after he led the 1999 Rams to a Super Bowl title. Most everyone is familiar with the story. Warner was an NFL castoff who played overseas and even supported himself for a while by working in a supermarket. He got the starter's job in 1999 when Trent Green was lost for the year during the preseason. Warner earned MVP honors that season and led the franchise to its only Super Bowl win (was also the Super Bowl MVP). He was named MVP again in 2001 but the Rams fell short of a second championship, losing 20-17 to New England in the Super Bowl. When Warner lasted just one season with the Giants in 2004, his career looked all but over. He resurfaced in Arizona and then beat out Matt Leinart in Ken Whisenhunt's second season as coach. Warner had a MVP-like season in 2008 and the Cards made it all the way to the Super Bowl last season, suffering a last-minute loss to Pittsburgh. Warner is proving that he and the Cardinals weren't a fluke last year. The Cards are 6-3, including 4-0 on the road where they were 3-5 last season. Warner is completing 66.9% of his passes for almost 280 YPG with 18 TDs and 11 INTs (91.5 rating). Warner became the 29th player in NFL history to throw 200 TD passes last Sunday, as he finished with 340 yards passing and two scores to help Arizona rally from an early 14-0 deficit to defeat Seattle 31-20. The Rams enter 1-8 in 2009 and a pathetic 6-35 since the beginning of the 2007 season. Warner has been at his best on the road this season, with a league-leading 72.6 completion percentage, 10 TDs and only two of his 11 INTs. He's 3-0 as a visitor in St. Louis, throwing for an average of 272.7 YPG with six TDs and only one INT. This must feel like a 'broken record' for the Rams. This is the team's fifth home game in 2009. The Rams have hosted in order, the Packers, Vikings, Colts and Saints. In case you are unfamiliar, that means facing Rodgers, Favre, Peyton and Brees. Those are the top-four rated QBs in the NFL in 2009 with a combined TD-to-INT ratio of 73-24. It shouldn't come as any surprise then that the Rams have allowed 36.0 PPG in their four home games with all four games going 'over.' Take a look at the history book and it reveals these numbers. The Cards are 50-26-1 (65.8%) to the 'over' since the beginning of the 2005 season (including LY's postseason). They are 26-11-1 (670.3%) to the over in games away from home, including three of four this year, averaging 30.8 PPG. The Cards come in playing very well averaging 29.3 PPG in their last four games overall with all four going over (game average of 52.3 PPG). NFL Total of the Week on Ari/StL Over (9*).
8* NYJ/NE Over.
Bill Belichick has been the talk of the NFL this week following his controversial fourth-down call last Sunday night at Indy. Belichick decided to go for it on fourth-and-two from the Patriots' own 28-yard line with just over two minutes to go and his team leading 34-28. Brady's pass to Kevin Faulk came up short and the Colts cruised in for the winning TD. "I thought it was our best chance to win," Belichick said. "I thought we needed to make that one play and then we could basically run out the clock. We weren't able to make it." Bottom line is this. Belichick DOESN'T trust his defense, despite its respectable 16.7 PPG average even AFTER the 35 points allowed to the Colts. The Pats could quiet their critics with a win over the Jets, which would basically 'bury' New York in the AFC East. The Jets opened 3-0 in 2009, including a 16-9 win over the Pats in Week 2. However, the Jets have lost FIVE of their last six, allowing 25.0 PPG in their five losses. The Pats are 5-0 in Foxboro this season, averaging 32.8 PPG. The weather is expected to be nice and I expect this game to be NOTHING like the teams' Week 2 meeting. The Pats are looking to put Sunday night's 'disaster' behind them and New England's 'shaky' defense is "just what the doctor ordered" for struggling rookie QB Sanchez. 8* NYJ/NE Over.
Tourney Game of the Week
Miami-Fla and South Carolina are both 4-0 heading into the championship game of the Charleston Classic. Miami won 19 games last year while the Gamecocks, in Darrin Horn's first season in Columbia, won 21. It was an excellent first season for the head coach who came to prominence by leading Western Kentucky into the NCAA tourney, where the Hilltoppers produced more than a few "March Madness moments." Both teams are solid but I like Horn quite a bit and his one-two combo of fifth-year seniors, the 6-7 Archie 16.3-7.0) and the 5-9 Downey (16.0-3.8 APG). Both flirted with the draft but return to the South Carolina backcourt joined by another senior, Raley-Ross (10.0) and freshman Galloway (5.8-3.7). The frontcourt isn't half-bad either, as the 6-7 Holmes (12.3-4.8) and the 6-9 Muldrew (7.3-4.5) have returned to play well in the early going, joined by 6-10 JUCO player, Johnson (4.3-4.0). Miami has a senior-laden frontline. The 6-8 Collins (13.0-8.5) is the team's best inside player, joined by the 6-7 Thomas (8.5) and the 6-9 McGowan (7.0-4.9). McClinton (19.3) is gone in the backcourt but senior Dews (12.0), Villanova transfer Grant (12.8) and highly-touted 6-5 freshman Scott (7.5-4.3-6.3) form a solid trio. Miami lost a lot of close games last season and FTs were often the difference. The 'Canes were next-to-last in the ACC in FT percentage last year (68.3) and are shooting just 68.1 through four games TY. South Carolina is not a great overall team at the line but the guard trio of Archie, Downey and Raley-Ross are making 44-of-56 or 79 percent so far. I don't expect a blowout in this one but I sure expect the Gamecocks to come away with the win (which is all they need to do to cover this one). Tourney Game of the Week on South Carolina (8*).
8* Phi/Chi Over.
The Eagles were 'riding high' at 5-2 after beating the Giants 40-17 in Week 8. However, they then lost a close 20-16 decision to the Cowboys on SNF in Week 9 and last week were held to three FGs through the first three quarters at San Diego before McNabb's two TDs in the fourth quarter cut the deficit to five points. However, the Chargers tacked on a 29-yard FG with 30 seconds remaining for a 31-23 win. McNabb went 35-for-55 with 450 yards, two TDs and an interception. It was the second-highest passing yards of McNabb's career and the fourth 400-yard passing game by an Eagle since 1970. Eagles RB Brian Westbrook was knocked out with another concussion and has been ruled out this week (and probably much longer). That means the Eagles will need to rely on McNabb and that sets up a high scoring game. The Bears agreed to a contract extension with QB Jay Cutler through the 2013 season just a few days after the team had lost 21-14 at Atlanta in Week 6. That loss sent the Bears on a 1-4 SU and ATS slide. Cutler set a career high with five interceptions, the last coming in the end zone on the game's final play in Chicago last game, a Week 10 Thursday night 10-6 loss at San Francisco. Cutler is the first Bear to have at least four INTs in a game twice in the same season since Billy Wade in 1962. It was Cutler's fourth game with three or more interceptions over the last two seasons, tied with Jake Delhomme for the most in the NFL. I don't want to give Cutler a 'pass' on Chicago's offensive woes this year but the Bears do rank 30th in the NFL at 85.2 YPG on the ground. Matt Forte rushed for 1,238 yards as a rookie in 2008 but won't come close to that in 2009, as he has been held to 482 yards this season through nine games. Cutler will have to throw, which also favors the over. The weather is expected to nice and history is also on our side in taking the Bears 'OVER' at home. Chicago's defense led them to an 11-5 season in 2005 but the Bears lost their first playoff game that postseason, 29-21 in Chicago to the Panthers. Beginning with that game, the Bears have played 31 home games, with the OVER cashing 22 of 31 times, or 71.0 percent of the time! 8* Phi/Chi Over.
Sunday Night Game of the Month 10* Phi Eagles.
The Eagles were 'riding high' at 5-2 after beating the Giants 40-17 in Week 8. However, they then lost a close 20-16 decision to the Cowboys on SNF in Week 9 and last week were held to three FGs through the first three quarters at San Diego before McNabb's two TDs in the fourth quarter cut the deficit to five points. However, the Chargers tacked on a 29-yard FG with 30 seconds remaining for a 31-23 win. McNabb went 35-for-55 with 450 yards, two TDs and an interception. It was the second-highest passing yards of McNabb's career and the fourth 400-yard passing game by an Eagle since 1970. Eagles RB Brian Westbrook was knocked out with another concussion and has been ruled out this week (and probably much longer). That means the Eagles will need to rely on McNabb and that sets up a probable high scoring game. The Bears agreed to a contract extension with QB Jay Cutler through the 2013 season just a few days after the team had lost 21-14 at Atlanta in Week 6. That loss sent the Bears on a 1-4 SU and ATS slide. Cutler set a career high with five interceptions, the last coming in the end zone on the game's final play in Chicago last game, a Week 10 Thursday night 10-6 loss at San Francisco. Cutler is the first Bear to have at least four INTs in a game twice in the same season since Billy Wade in 1962. It was Cutler's fourth game with three or more interceptions over the last two seasons, tied with Jake Delhomme for the most in the NFL. I don't want to give Cutler a 'pass' on Chicago's offensive woes this year but the Bears do rank 30th in the NFL at 85.2 YPG on the ground. Matt Forte rushed for 1,238 yards as a rookie in 2008 but won't come close to that in 2009, as he has been held to 482 yards this season through nine games. Cutler will have to throw, which also favors the over. The weather is expected to nice and I believe the Eagles will win a shoot-out. Chicago's OL has had recent problems and the Eagles have 29 sacks (only the Vikings have more in 2009). Cutler has been a 'turnover machine' and Philly ranks second in the NFL with 22 total takeaways, including 15 INTs (3rd-best). Devin Hester has 48 catches this year (had only 51 all of last year) but he's Chicago's lone threat among WRs (Olsen is having a nice year at TE). It's a bad matchup for Hester, as the Eagles historically have been able to contain their opponents' deep threats. Just see last week as a good example, as San Diego's No. 1 WR Vincent Jackson was held to one reception for 10 yards in Week 10. This is a "must win" for both teams but I want McNabb over Cutler plus it's hard to ignore Philly's 15-5 ATS mark on the road over its last 20 games (including the playoffs). Sunday Night Game of the Month 10* Phi Eagles.
Drew Gordon
300* Tampa Bay Bucs
Executive
400 GB
150 NYG
100 Den, Jack
Seabass
50 Teaser NE/Seattle
50 Denver
100 Cleveland
100 Baltimore
200 Buffalo
300 Chicago
Youngstown Connection
Detroit -3
Score
400% Pitt
300% St Louis
300% Washington
SCORE
500 Cinc
300 Ind
300 SF
SPORTS UNLIMITED
7* Chicago Over
BEN BURNS
10* Jets Und
9* Oak,Chi
Underdog
Denver
Sports Bank
500 Jets Under
Lenny Stevens
20* Oakland
10* Phila
10* NE
STEVE BUDIN
25 DIME PATS
PPP
3% NEW ENGLAND
MIKEY SPORTS
Bengals
Patriots
LT PROFITS
Bengals
HEISMAN TROPHY CLUB
JETS
DISCOUNT SPORTS
5* New England -10½
DAVE COKIN
RAIDERS
CHARLIES SPORTS
20* Oakland +9
20* NY Jets +10
Carolina Sports
4* NY Jets Under