Wunderdog
4 Units Tennessee +6.5
The Tennessee Titans will go with Rusty Smith at QB here, and its about as good a spot as possible for him to get his first start. The Texans' defense is the worst in the league, and with Chris Johnson piling up yards on a soft Houston front he should have some time off play action to do an adequate job. Often when teams have an apparent downgrade on offense, we see the defense rise to the occasion, playing focused with a sense of urgency. The Titans can get a lot of pressure on Matt Schaub, as they have recorded 30 sacks already on the season. Houston appeared to turn the corner last year breaking the .500 mark for the first time, and started 4-2 this season. But they*have now dropped four straight games. They are the only team in the NFL to allow 24 or more points in every game. And, it's only gotten worse as the season progresses. They have allowed 29 or more in each of their last six. This is too many points to be giving from a team that has dropped their last four games and is allowing 30+ a game over their last half-dozen. I'm on Tennessee here.
3 Units on Buffalo +6.5
The Buffalo Bills have won two straight games and are clearly an improved football team over their last five. The Bills first five saw them go 0-5 and, in the process getting outscored by 15 ppg. But, what was an uncompetitive teams has now become competitive over their last five games. The Bills could actually be 5-0 in their last five as they dropped two games in overtime and a third by a FG, to go along with their two wins. They have been in every game they have played, with a chance to win late. And, that came against some pretty good teams in Baltimore, Kansas City and Chicago. Last week they were impressive after being left for dead at halftime, trailing 28-7. The Bills outscored the Bengals 42-3 on the road, for an easy 18 point win. The Steelers have been a bit up and down, having gone 2-2 in their last four games. They having shown a propensity to get caught napping after a big win, going 3-10 ATS after winning their previous game by more than 14 points. They also can't seem to get it done vs. bad defenses as the Steelers are 0-6 ATS since last season vs. teams like the Bills that allow 350+ yards per game. The Bills are now 4-0-1 ATS in their last five playing with confidence (off a win) and they can stay close here.
4 Units Green Bay / Atlanta Under 47.5
The Atlanta Falcons are the best team in the NFC, at least as measured by record (8-2). Their offense is ranked#6 in total yards, but when comparing their stats offensively to the defenses they have played, they are exactly average, gaining 5.4 yards a play vs teams allowing 5.4 yards a play. They will find the going more difficult against a solid Green Bay defense that, with 28 sacks, gets pressure on the QB and has allowed just two runners over 100 yards since week two. This Packers defense has allowed a total of ten points in their last three games. The Green Bay offense is good, but down a tick from a year ago without running back Ryan Grant to balance the attack and. On the road their offensive efficiency drops and as a result, their last five road games have all gone UNDER. The Falcons have a long history of UNDERS after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game as they have followed with a 33-16-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 51. I like the UNDER in this one.
4 Units Minnesota / Washington Under 43.5
The two most dysfunctional teams in the NFL this year have been the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings. The Cowboys fired their head coach a couple of weeks ago and went on to a huge upset in their next game. The Vikings have finally gotten a clue as well, firing Brad Childress. While the Vikings may respond in a similar way with an inspired effort, the fact remains that this offense, behind an aging QB who*is simply a bad player right now, isn't likely to explode. Thanks in large part to Brett Favre's 17 interceptions, Minnesota is ranked 29th in the league in scoring.*Washington certainly*had to fix some leaks on the defensive end as they allowed 37 to the Lions and 59 to the Eagles in consecutive weeks. But the truth is, this defense has actually played quite respectably outside of those two debacles. In their five games surrounding those two bad outings, the Skins have allowed an average of 16.4 points per game. So this defense has a worse reputation than deserved. The problem is that their offense has scored less than 20 in six games and has topped out at 28, most of that in garbage time in their 59-28 loss to the Eagles. The Skins have played better defensively at home vs. on the road, leading to a 7-0 mark to the UNDER in their last seven home games. In the favorite role, they are 10-2 UNDER the past three seasons. The Vikings have come back strong from a poor defensive showing as they are 9-4 to the UNDER after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game. I like the UNDER in this one.
3 Units Chicago +3.5
The Philadelphia Eagles have become the talk of the NFL, behind a huge season by Michael Vick, who is working with MVP stats to this point. The public certainly has bought into it as 70% have sided with the Eagles here. While I think Philadelphia is a very good team right now, I think this is a great spot to fade them. The Eagles have had a five-game stretch of tough games vs Atlanta, Tennessee, Indianapolis and, the most recent two division games vs Washington and the Giants. The last game vs. New York in primetime was an especially important game and a letdown here wouldn't shock me. This is a spot where they could take a breath and that could spell trouble. It's very hard to sustain elite performance for so many weeks in a row. This is a tough spot, heading on the road, after five charged up games and facing a Bears defense that has allowed the fewest points in the NFL (14.6). Chicago has*allowed just one team all season to top the 20-point mark. The Eagles have not fared well after topping the 350-yard mark offensively in their last game as they have followed their last five going 0-5 ATS. The Bears are in a favorable spot here at home with the better defense and getting points.
4 Units San Diego / Indianapolis Under 51.5
The expected shootout between the Colts and the Chargers has this total topping the 50 mark.*Point totals in that range don't often materialize, despite the offenses in play. In fact, in games with these two*high-octane offenses, four of the last five have played UNDER the total. The Colts have a combination of problems offensively. Peyton Manning, while still certainly among the league's elite QB's, is playing with*an injury plagued offense and he may in fact be losing a step. This season, Manning has career lows in yards per attempt at 7.0, a QB rating at 93.9 and is on schedule to throw 700+ passes, where his previous high is 571. However, he's having to force the issue and his completion percentage is lower than any prior season. The Colts numbers look like this. They have scored 31 or more in 33 of 80 games, until recently. In their last 18 games they*have reached that 31 mark just twice. That's a big dropoff. On the road this season, the Chargers are very pedestrian, averaging just 21.4 points per game. The Chargers can play defense with the best and have a good secondary. Indy is holding opponents at home this season to*just 14.2 points per game. So, I don't see a big shootout here. During November's games since 2005, the Colts have played to ten totals of 50 or higher and the UNDER is 9-1. And, after a game in which 50+ total points were scored, the Colts are 12-3 UNDER over the past three seasons. This total has been set for the public, not history. I'm going UNDER.
Matt Fargo
GOW - St. Louis Rams
Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 37-33-1 +1.20%
3% MINNESOTA +1
3% TAMPA BAY +7.5
3% SAN DIEGO +3
3% TAMPA BAY/BALTIMORE OVER 41.5
WASHINGTON –1 Minnesota 43
Minnesota was blown out at home by the Packers, 31-3, which prompted the firing of Brad Childress. DC Leslie Frazier will take over as interim head coach. Minnesota out rushed GB 5.2ypr to 3.0ypr but were out passed badly, 8.1yps to 5.3yps. Overall, Minnesota was out gained 5.8yppl to 5.3yppl. Washington came up big in OT at Tennessee in their 19-16 win but they were out gained badly. Tennessee out rushed Washington 6.0ypr to 3.2ypr and out passed them as well, 8.5yps to 6.8yps. Overall, Washington was out gained 7.3yppl to 5.4yppl. And the 5.4yppl number is a bit skewed compared to Tennessee as Washington threw the ball 27 more times as well.
Minnesota averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. Washington averages 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl.
Minnesota qualifies in my turnover table, which is 423-276-18. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 389-249-18, 124-54-8 and 483-313-21. Numbers favor Minnesota by one point and predict about 39 points. I expect Minnesota to snap out of their funk this week with Frazier now in charge. The players seem to like Frazier and I would expect a better effort because of the coaching move. While Minnesota has lost nine in a row on the road, they have played five road games this year against teams who have combined to go 38-13 – (NO, Jets, GB, NE and Chicago). Their other games were 27-24 over Arizona, 24-10 over Detroit, 24-21 over Dallas and 10-14 against Miami. A big step down in class for the Vikings this week. They have been competitive against the lesser competition, which Washington is at 5-5. Meanwhile, Washington’s wins have come against GB and Tennessee in OT by three each, in games they were statistically dominated in, by five over Philadelphia who lost Vick early in the game and by six over Dallas 13-7, scoring seven points at the end of the first half on a fumble return. This game figures to be close and I like Minnesota with a much better defense, situations and value all on their side. MINNESOTA 27 WASHINGTON 20
Pittsburgh –6.5 BUFFALO 43
Pittsburgh dominated Oakland in their 35-3 victory. They out rushed Oakland 4.9ypr to 3.8ypr, out passed them 8.7yps to 2.5yps and out gained them overall, 6.7yppl to 2.8yppl. Buffalo fell behind 28-7 at Cincinnati partly because of turnovers but then out scored Cincinnati 42-3. They out rushed Cincinnati 5.6ypr to 4.4ypr, out passed them 8.8yps to 5.8yps and out gained them overall, 7.5yppl to 5.2yppl.
Pittsburgh averages 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 2.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Buffalo averages 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl.
Situations go both ways as Buffalo qualifies in a home dog momentum situation, which is 44-15-1. Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 523-384-23. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by seven points and predict about 45 points. Buffalo hasn’t fared well at home against above .500 competition this year, losing by 24 to the Jets and by 10 to Jacksonville, allowing 38 and 36 points in those games. Pittsburgh has scored 38 and 27 points on the road against the below average defenses they have faced this year. Prior to last week Pittsburgh has allowed at least 20 points in four straight games. I look for Pittsburgh to score plenty again and then it’s simply a matter of Buffalo being able to points on the board. PITTSBURGH 30 BUFFALO 23
HOUSTON –6.5 Tennessee 45
Tennessee lost at home in OT to Washington 19-16 but they out gained Washington badly. They out rushed the Skins 6.0ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed them 8.5yps to 6.8yps and out gained them overall, 7.3yppl to 5.4yppl. Those numbers are even worse when you consider Washington threw the ball 27 more times. The Redskins controlled the ball about 14 minutes more than Tennessee. Houston suffered another heartbreak loss in the last minute of the game at NY, losing 30-27. They held their own against the Jets, out rushing them 3.7ypr to 3.3ypr, getting out passed slightly, 7.3yps to 7.2yps and out gaining the Jets overall, 5.7yppl to 5.6yppl.
Tennessee averages 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.9yps against 6.7yps and 5.2yppl against 5.7yppl. Houston averages 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.0yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.7yps against 6.6yps and 6.2yppl against 5.6yppl.
Houston qualifies in my turnover table, which is 423-276-18. Numbers favor Tennessee by two points if Young would start but it will be Rusty Smith instead. Hard to make a number on this game because there isn’t any history with Rusty Smith but he is facing a bad Houston defense and Tennessee’s rushing game can offset the inexperience of Smith. Bottom line I believe the number has been set too high for Houston. This game was lined at pick ‘em before these two played last week so the 6.5 point adjustment is too high, IMO. Vince Young was averaging 7.0yps and Kerry Collins was averaging 5.4yps this year. Rusty Smith averaged 6.9yps in nine pass attempts last week but one completion was for 52 yards. Remove that completion and the other eight pass attempts averaged 1.3yps so it’s hard to say how well he will do. While Collins only averaged 5.4yps he faced four good defensive teams in his five games played. Against Jacksonville he averaged 6.9yps, which is another poor pass defense, much like Houston. Because this is Houston that Smith is facing, I believe they’ll be able to run and throw the ball and keep Smith is good situations. Tennessee has won six of the eight meeting played here and, while they have won four of the last five here, the lone loss was by just one point. I won’t take Tennessee because of the situation on Houston but I think this is too many points. HOUSTON 27 TENNESSEE 23
NY GIANTS –7 Jacksonville 44.5
Jacksonville over came six turnovers to defeat Cleveland in the last minute, 24-20. They out rushed the Browns, 5.1ypr to 3.4ypr, out passed them 5.8yps to 5.7yps and out gained them overall, 5.5yppl to 4.7yppl. The Giants gave up a 50 yard touchdown run on a 4th and 1 play with four minutes left, losing the lead and the game in the process. They were out rushed 5.7ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed 6.0yps to 4.5yps and out gained overall, 5.9yppl to 4.0yppl. They also lost the turnover battle 5-2, including a key Eli Manning fumble late in the game.
Jacksonville averages 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.9yps against 6.7yps and 6.2yppl against 5.7yppl. New York averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Giants by 13 points and predict about 47 points. I really wanted to play the Giants in this game but didn’t have any situations that apply and the Giants have plenty of injuries on the offensive line and at the receiver position. Jacksonville has plenty of injuries as well as they will miss both their left and right tackle on the offensive line and Simms-Walker is questionable at receiver as well. Jacksonville has allowed at least 26 points in three of their four road games this year. Their road games have totaled at least 51 points in each game. The numbers suggest value on the Giants and I will lean that way as well. NY GIANTS 30 JACKSONVILLE 20
CLEVELAND –10 Carolina 37.5
Carolina actually out rushed Baltimore last week but were beaten badly in the passing game again, which has been the problem for Carolina all year long. They out rushed Baltimore 5.5ypr to 3.2ypr, were out passed 7.7yps to 4.8yps and out gained overall, 5.6yppl to 5.1yppl. Cleveland had the game won at Jacksonville but gave up an 80 yard screen pass to the one yard line with two minutes left to lose 24-20. Cleveland failed to convert enough on six Jacksonville turnovers. They were out rushed 5.1ypr to 3.4ypr, out passed 5.8yps to 5.7yps and out gained overall, 5.5yppl to 4.7yppl.
Carolina averages 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.5yps against 5.9yps and 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Cleveland averages 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 6.4yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl.
Carolina qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 156-79-6 and 7-3 this year. Unfortunately, Carolina is just 1-2 in that situation this year. Numbers favor Cleveland by ten points and predict about 35 points. Jake Delhomme will get the start at quarterback this week for Cleveland, which probably means more interceptions for Cleveland as Delhomme has been interception prone this year (6.7%). Carolina has played a lot of good teams this year but against the average to below average teams they have been more competitive, losing by 10 at the Rams, defeating the 49ers and losing by 13 to Cincinnati. Cleveland has defeated only one team by more than 13 points this year and that was NE. If I was getting 13 points in this game I would take a shot with Carolina but they have been terrible throwing the ball and without enough points I can’t take them. CLEVELAND 23 CAROLINA 14
BALTIMORE –7.5 Tampa Bay 41.5
TB came up with a big win at SF, 21-0. Both teams averaged 3.9ypr but TB gained 162 yards to only 71 for SF. TB out passed SF 5.7yps to 3.2ypr, including sacking the 49ers six times. Overall, they out gained SD 4.5yppl to 3.4yppl. Baltimore defeated Carolina 37-13 but were out rushed 5.5ypr to 3.2ypr. They out passed Carolina 7.7yps to 4.8yps and out gained them overall, 5.6yppl to 5.1yppl.
TB averages 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.1yps against 5.7yps and 5.5yppl against 5.0yppl.. Baltimore averages 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.9yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl.
TB qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 288-197-22. Numbers favor Baltimore by 6.5 points and predict about 42 points. TB has gone 4-1 SU since Blount started getting double digit rushing attempts, averaging 4.5ypr during that time. Josh Freeman has also averaged 7.1yps during that same time. Some of those positive numbers are due to the competition but they have scored at least 21 points in four of those five games and 18 in the other game, which was the first game Blount started getting significant carries. Baltimore is tough at home but this isn’t the same Ravens teams we have seen in the past. They are below average on offense and just average on defense. Against above .500 teams this year, they have won by one, three, and lost by three and five points. All of those games have been on the road and TB has lost by 25 to Pittsburgh and NO but lost by just six points at Atlanta. I like TB’s ability to pound the ball with Blount and for Freeman to make some plays with his arm and legs. This game also qualifies in a statistical situation I have been following that suggests this game will go over the total. With Baltimore having scored at least 24 points in every home game this year and TB having scored at least 21 in each of their last four road games, I like this game over the total as well. BALTIMORE 27 TAMPA BAY 24
Philadelphia –3 CHICAGO 42.5
Philadelphia needed a 50 yard touchdown run on 4th and 1 with four minutes remaining to grab the lead against the Giants. They out rushed NY 5.7ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed them 6.0yps to 4.5yps and out gained them overall, 5.9yppl to 4.0yppl. They also benefited from a 5-2 margin in turnovers. Chicago shut out a banged up Miami team 16-0. They out rushed Miami 3.4ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed them 4.8yps to 4.2yps and were even overall, at 3.9yppl. The final yppl numbers are a bit misleading, knowing Chicago ran the ball 27 more times at that 3.4ypr average compared to their 4.8yps average, while Miami threw the ball seven more times than Chicago at their 4.2yps average compared to Miami’s 3.0ypr average. The Bears out gained Miami 268 yards to 187 yards.
Philadelphia averages 5.4ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.7yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Chicago averages 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.4yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl.
Chicago qualifies in a home dog momentum situation, which is 44-15-1. Philadelphia qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 389-249-18. Numbers favor Philadelphia by three points and predict about 41 points. Philly is really banged up right now. It looks like Asante Samuel will miss this game and Ellis Hobbs was put on IR earlier this week so the Eagles are hurting in the secondary. I also expect the long grass at Chicago to slow down Vick some. Chicago has been tough at home with their two losses by just three points each and a victory over GB. Philadelphia has played well this year but their lone road game against an above average defense was a 37-19 loss at Tennessee, although Kolb started that game but it was also against Kerry Collins and not Vince Young. A lean towards Chicago in this game because of the home field and the injury situations with Philadelphia. CHICAGO 21 PHILADELPHIA 20
ATLANTA –2 Green Bay 47.5
GB went to Minnesota and dominated the Vikings in their 31-3 win. They were out rushed 5.2ypr to 3.0ypr but out passed Minnesota 8.1yps to 5.3yps. Overall, they out gained the Vikings 5.8yppl to 5.3yppl. Atlanta struggled at St. Louis but escaped with a 34-17 win that was much closer than the final score. The Rams out rushed Atlanta 5.9ypr to 4.5ypr but were out passed 6.5yps to 5.5yps. Overall, both teams averaged 5.6yppl.
GB averages 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Atlanta averages 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl.
Atlanta qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 88-43-9. Numbers actually favor GB by three points and predict about 44 points. A big game in the NFC between these two as it will help settle tie breaker situations at the end of the year. The situation lies with Atlanta but the value lies with GB. I like GB in this game for a few reasons. The Packers bring a much better defense and have the more explosive offense in this game. If Atlanta is going to win it will be because they are at home where Matt Ryan is nearly unbeatable, they are more balanced on offense because of their ability to run the ball and we find out the Packers defense isn’t as good as people think because this is the first real offense with a good quarterback they have faced this year. Should be a good game but I will lean with the value and the better defense. Numbers suggest a lower scoring game and that could be because of the Packers defense but I would not play the under knowing how explosive these teams can be. GB has allowed just 10 points over their last three games and hasn’t allowed more than 20 points all year on the road. GREEN BAY 24 ATLANTA 21
OAKLAND –3.5 Miami 39.5
Miami was down to their third string qb and it showed in their 16-0 loss at home to the Bears. They were out rushed 3.4ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed 4.8yps to 4.2yps, while both teams ended up averaging 3.9yppl. Those yppl numbers are skewed because Chicago ran the ball about 59% of the game. Miami was out gained 268-187 for the game. Oakland was throttled at Pittsburgh, 35-3. They were out rushed 4.9ypr to 3.8ypr, out passed badly 8.7yps to 2.5yps and out gained overall, 6.7yppl to 2.8yppl.
Miami averages 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Oakland averages 4.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.5yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl.
Miami qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 145-87-5 as long as they are getting three points or more. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 38 points. Tough game for me to call. Miami is likely to be without Brandon Marshall and it appears Chad Henne will start at quarterback. I’ll lean towards the dog if Henne starts but it’s a weak lean at best. OAKLAND 21 MIAMI 20
Kansas City –2.5 SEATTLE 44.5
KC bounced back as expected at home against Arizona last week, 31-13. They out rushed Arizona 5.5ypr to 5.1ypr, out passed them 8.0yps to 5.9yps and out gained them overall 6.6yppl to 5.6yppl. Seattle lost at NO, 34-19, but they have opened up their offense over the last two weeks. They were out rushed 3.9ypr to 3.4ypr and out passed 8.9yps to 8.3yps but the 8.3yps and 366 yards passing is a good sign for this team on the road. Overall, they out gained NO 7.0yppl to 6.9yppl, primarily because NO ran the ball 12 more times than Seattle to water down their overall numbers somewhat.
KC averages 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.5yps against 6.6yps and 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. Seattle averages 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl.
KC qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 718-589-44 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor 3.5 points and predict about 39 points. The Seahawks have really opened up their offense in the last two games and it’s showing with their strong passing numbers at Arizona and New Orleans. WR Mike Williams is probably going to miss this game and that could be significant. KC has struggled on the road this year with a victory over Cleveland by two and then losses by 10, 4, 3 and 20 points. I’ll lean towards KC but this game won’t be easy. KANSAS CITY 23 SEATTLE 20
DENVER –3.5 St Louis 44.5
St. Louis kept their game against Atlanta close last week until late in the game in their 34-17 misleading final score. The Rams out rushed Atlanta 5.9ypr to 4.5ypr but were out passed 6.5yps to 5.5yps. Overall, both teams averaged 5.6yppl. Denver scored on their first drive at SD but were dominated after that score, losing 35-14. The Broncos out rushed SD 4.2ypr to 3.9ypr (but out yarded 147-63), were out passed 9.0yps to 4.0yps, including allowing five sacks and out gained overall, 6.2yppl to 4.1yppl. Those numbers were probably even worse, knowing Denver threw the ball 16 more times, while SD ran the ball 23 more times.
St. Louis averages 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.1yps against 6.3yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 5.9yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Denver averages 3.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.4yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl.
I don’t have any situation on this game. Numbers favor Denver by 3.5 points and predict about 45 points. I believe I am 1-5 ATS playing on or against St. Louis this year so I’m not going to try and lean too strongly either way in this game. The Rams have scored 20 or less points in all but one game this year and scored 17 or 20 points in each of their last five games, including six of their last seven games. That will be tested this week as Denver has allowed at least 20 points in all but one game this year and at least 24 points in each of their last six games. I like the better dog here but I haven’t been too lucky in predicting Rams games this year. This game also qualifies in a statistical situation I am tracking that suggests this game will go over the total. DENVER 24 ST LOUIS 23
INDIANAPOLIS –3 San Diego 52
SD dominated Denver last week worse than the final score of 35-14. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 3.9ypr but gained 147 yards rushing to only 63 for Denver. They out passed Denver 9.4yps to 4.0yps, including sacking the Broncos five times. Overall, they out gained Denver 6.2yppl to 4.1yppl but those numbers are skewed because SD ran the ball 23 more times than Denver, while the Broncos threw the ball 16 more times than SD. Indianapolis lost at NE 31-28 but made it close after trailing by 17 in the fourth quarter. They were out rushed by NE 4.9ypr to 3.6ypr, including allowing NE to rush for 168 yards to just 71 yards for Indy. Indy did out pass NE 7.6yps to 6.8yps and overall, out gained NE 6.5yppl to 5.8yppl. Those final numbers are skewed because Indy threw the ball 26 more times, while NE ran the ball 14 more times than Indy.
SD averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 8.1yps against 6.7yps and 6.4yppl against 5.7yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.2yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.3yppl. Indianapolis averages 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.6yps against 6.8yps and 5.6yppl against 5.7yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.0yps against 6.6yps and 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl.
SD qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 458-317-21, 124-54-8, 483-313-21 and 288-197-22. Numbers favor SD by three points and predict about 45 points. I have gone against Indy four times this year and failed to win any of those wagers. But in those four games, I have lost the last two games on back door scores by Indy in the last few minutes of the game to lose SU but still cover the spread. In the other two games I lost to the spread by one score or less in games my team has had a chance to cover. I’ll go against them again this week with what I consider a better team in SD. As long as SD doesn’t have special team blunders they are one of the best teams in the league. SD is just 1-4 SU on the road this year, having finally won a game in their last road game at Houston and Indy is 4-0 SU at home this year but SD is significantly better on both sides of the ball as long as their special teams don’t create problems. SD has won four of the last six games played between these two (four out of five with a loss in the sixth game) and their two losses to Indianapolis have both been by three points each so they can definitely play with Indy. Value, situations and better numbers on both sides of the ball make this an automatic play. SAN DIEGO 27 INDIANAPOLIS 23
DOUBLE DRAGON
TITANS +6
BROWNS -9
PACKERS +3 (-130)
BUCCANEERS +9
EAGLES -3 (-120)
CHIEFS -PK (-120)
CHARGERS +3 (-125)
49'ERS -PK (-125)
Andy Fanelli
75 Dime Steelers
30 Dime Texans
20 Dime Eagles
15 Dime SD Under
KING CREOLE
3* PACKERS / FALCONS OVER
DID YOU KNOW? The Green Bay Packers are one hell of a G-R-E-A-T "Over" team when playing in domes! It goes back to the heyday of the Brett Favre era and has continued in the Aaron Rodgers era. Green Bay is an amazing 22-4 O/U since the 2000 season in INDOOR environments. That includes a PERFECT 5-0 O/U sinceƒ 2003 as Dome UNDERDOGS... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U against NON-division competition. With Aaron Rodgers at QB, they have scored 33.1 PPG when playing indoors..... Not only that, but the PACK is a PERFECT 10-0 O/U in the last 5 years against NFC SOUTH division opponents! Average total points in these games is a whopping 59.7. Going into Sunday's game, the Packer offense is in high gear, with 76 points in their last 2 games. And their TD to FG ratio has also been very high (10 td's / 2 fg's last 2), which is a big asset when we are on an 'Over'.
They'll be taking on a FALCON team that's also on a major roll.... from a SU... ATS ... and "Over" perspective. Atlanta comes is with the best record in the NFL at 8-2 SU. They have won 4 STRAIGHT games... and 8 of their last 9. But what has us REALLY excited is their OU run. The Falcons have gone OVER the TOTAL in each of their last 5 games.... with an average OU margin of +9.9 points per game. They have scored plenty of points (31.5 ppg L4)... and ALLOWED their fair share too (24.4 L5). When Atlanta is at home and the line is 'tight' (-3 to +3), they have gone 7-1-1 O/U in the last 4 years. This SERIES is also high-scoring. ATLANTA and GREEN BAY have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in the last 4 meetings vs each other since 2001... with an average of 55.8 points per game.
First off, let's review the OU tendencies of our "Homer DOMER" teams in the NFL.
So far this year, Homer DOMER teams off 3+ 'Overs' in a row (ATL) have gone 4-0 O/U... Working our way farther backwards, we note that these teams are 20-8 O/U as dome FAVS of 10 < pts since 2001, and 6-0-1 O/U ijn the last 4 years (ATL).
Game 11 Homer DOMER non-division games have gone 6-0 O/U in the last 5 years when the OU line is 56 < points...
Green Bay also played in a dome last week (vs Minnesota).
All NFL non-dome road teams have gone 12-2 O/U since 2004 in the 2ND of BB 'Dome' games (PACKERS)... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U as underdogs of points each (PACKERS).
4-0 O/U since 1983: All GAME 8 > non-div dogs of 4 < points who allowed 3 < points and 7 < points in their last 2 games (PACKERS).
9-0 O/U Since 1980: All underdogs of 3 points (PACKERS).
Not only are the Packers off major FAVORITE wins in a row... but so are the Falcons. They were -3.5 last week and beat the RAms 34-17. Prior to that, they were -1 vs the Ravens and won 26-21.
8-1 O/U since 1999: All NFL home teams of BB SUATS favorite wins (FALCONS) versus an opponent ALSO off BB SUATS favorite wins (PACKERS).... when the OU line falls in the range of 36-56 points (4-0 O/U since 2005).
Teams with high winning percentages have great HIGH-scoring tendencies this late in the season as of late.
8-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME 8 > non-division home teams with a .700 > W/L % (FALCONS) versus a .700 > Conference opponent (PACKERS).
Combine the LOW pointspread with the HIGH over / under line... and you get:
9-1 O/U in the last 4 years for all GAME 8 > non-division favorites of -3 or LESS points (ATL) playing off a SU win when the OU line is 46 > points.
2* ST LOUIS RAMS
We'll be the most PROFITABLE situation for Underdogs thus far in the 2010 season. AND since we have TWO qualifiers in our 'tightener', it would be very prudent to play both for equal amounts.
12-4 ATS in 2010: All NFL underdogs playing off a SU loss (PANTHERS / RAMS) versus and 500 opponent also off a SU loss (Browns / Broncos). Underdogs of 3 > points have gone 9-1 ATS.... and Dogs in the range o +3 to +13 have gone a PERFECT 9-0 ATS (PANTHERS / RAMS).
In Game Two, both the Rams and the Broncos are playing off BIG losses (Den: 35-14 to San Diego / Stl: 34-17 to Atlanta).
5-0 ATS since 2005: All non-div road underdogs of points.
Denver played on Monday night in San Diego, and lost by double-digits.
0-6 ATS since 2003: All favorites of 7 points playing off a SU road loss to the San Diego Chargers (Denver) versus an opponent off a DD SU loss (RAMS).
The Broncos scored 14 points on Monday... and 49 points against the Chiefs two weeks ago.
0-5 ATS last 3 years: All NFL teams playing off a SU loss in which they scored 14 points (Denver).
The severity of St Louis' loss last week to Atlanta as a home dog puts them in prime 'Play ON' company.
10-2 ATS last 3 years: All NFL underdogs of 7 points in a game in which they were an underdog of +3 > points (RAMS).
Dave Malinsky
6* NY Giants
Teddy Covers
Falcons
Rams
Chargers
Scott Spreitzer
Sunday Night GOY: San Diego Chargers +3
The second half Charger surge is in full swing, having won three in a row. In fact, we have been on the Chargers in their last two games on these pages, cashing both. San Diego got Malcolm Floyd back on the field last week and he made a difference against the Broncos. Even though they may not have Antonio Gates again (questionable), Floyd (probable) is such a big advantage for SDG thanks to his height advantage over most defensive backs. But we wouldn't be worried even if Floyd has to sit this one out. Philip Rivers simply incorporates backups and little-used players as well as anyone in the league, much like Peyton Manning does with the Colts. The fact that WR Vincent Jackson will likely be on the field on Sunday night makes the Bolts' offense even more dangerous and makes up for the loss of injured WR Patrick Crayton. Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards and whether Gates returns or not, they're going to be tough for the Indy defense to slow down. The Colts were no match for the Patriots in the first half last week and they have their share of bumps and bruises heading into this contest. Indy QB Peyton Manning has been dealing with a banged-up receiving corps for most of the season and the injuries continue to play a big part. This week, Manning will have to face the league's top-ranked pass defense, with a less than 100% receiving corps. The Colts are also banged-up at RB...not that it would matter much anyway. They're not a good running team (28th) and will face the league's fourth best rush defense. That's not the same for SDG when they have the ball. The Chargers own an effecient ground game (111.7 ypg) and should have little trouble opening up holes against the league's 30th ranked run defense. No matter what Indy needs to do to win this game, SDG is doing a better job over the last three contests. The surge is well underway and the Chargers will be shooting for their 8th straight November win dating back to last season. As far as the "techs" are concerned, the Colts are on a 5-16 ATS slide at home after a loss by 6 points or less. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 17-3 ATS against the AFC South, and with Norv Turner as coach, they have fared quite well against pass-happy teams. The Chargers are 7-0, 100% ATS in the second half of the season against teams that complete at least 64% of their passes. I'm taking the points with San Diego, my Sunday Night Game of the Year.
Jack Jones
25* Philadelphia -3
15* Pittsburgh -6
15* Baltimore -7
15* San Diego +3
Don Wallace Sports
4* Chargers +3
4* Giants -7
4* Falcons -1.5
4* Eagles -3
Anthony Redd
100 Dime Jacksonville
30 Dime Pittsburgh
30 Dime Kansas City
30 Dime San Diego
Derek Mancini
30 Dime Denver
2 Minute Warning
10 Dime Minnesota Vikings
Chuck O'Brien
50 Dime Pittsburgh