Ben Burns
Packers / Falcons Under 48
Jaguars / NY Giants Under 45
Chiefs / Seahawks Under 45
Rams / Broncos Under 45
Baltimore Ravens -7
Chicago Bears +4
Jeff Benton
100 Dime Baltimore Ravens
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, without question, are the biggest surprise (from a positive perspective) in the NFL this season. They sit at 7-3 SU and ATS, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on the road, and they take the field today just a one game behind the Falcons and a half-game behind New Orleans in the NFC South race. Certainly, coach Raheem Morris is the odds-on favorite for Coach of the Year, and second-year QB Josh Freeman (61 percent completions, 2,100 yards, 14 TDs and 5 INTs) is having a Pro Bowl-caliber season.
OK, now that I’ve dispensed with the kudos for Tampa Bay, let’s get down to explaining how the Bucs have gotten to 7-3 – and it’s a really simple explanation: They’ve taken advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL. Take a look at Tampa Bay’s seven victims this season: Browns (three-point win), Panthers (twice), Bengals (three-point win), Rams (one-point win), Cardinals (three-point win) and 49ers (last week’s 21-0 shutout). The three losses for the Bucs? Falcons, Saints and Steelers by a combined score of 96-40!
Here’s the cumulative record of the six teams (including Carolina twice) that the Bucs have defeated this year: 16-45. Here’s the cumulative record of the three teams that have defeated Tampa: 23-8.
Now here’s the Ravens’ record: 7-3 overall, including 4-0 at home. And Baltimore has beaten the likes of the Jets and Steelers (on the road) and nearly upset the Falcons and Patriots (both on the road).
Get the picture?
Even though both these teams are 7-3, the Ravens have played a MUCH more difficult schedule, and despite that, their statistics trump Tampa’s in almost every category. For instance, Baltimore’s offense (23.3 ppg, 348.2 total ypg, 231.6 passing ypg) is better than Tampa Bay’s (20.9 ppg, 325 total ypg, 207.2 passing ypg). And the Ravens’ defense (17.8 ppg, 311.8 ypg, 101.8 rushing ypg) is superior to the Bucs’ (20.6 ppg, 337.3 ypg, 136.5 rushing ypg). And in their four home wins, the Ravens have outscored opponents by an average of 10 ppg (29.5-19.5).
The Ravens have been outstanding in the role of home favorite (44-19-1 ATS last 64), and they’ve also cashed in eight of their last 11 as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points (7-2 ATS as a home chalk in that range). And while the Bucs have a bevy of positive pointspread trends going their way, the one that’s most important to me is this: They’re 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against winning teams, including 1-2 ATS this year (they got a lucky spread-cover at Atlanta thanks to a kickoff return for a TD that followed a Falcons field goal – had Atlanta not made that field goal, the Bucs never get the kickoff return and they would’ve lost by double digits).
Bottom line: Tampa Bay has shown time and again this season that it can’t hang with the NFL’s “big boys,” and the Ravens definitely qualify as such. Three of their last four victories have been double-digit blowouts (37-13, 26-10 and 31-17), and I’m calling for another two-touchdown win here.
Nick Bogdanovich
Raiders
Colts
Bucs
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Falcons
Billionaire - Bills
No Limit - Bears
Pinnacle - Seahawks
Board of Directors - Giants
TV GOW - Colts
Perfect Play - Broncos
PPP
5% Pittsburgh
5% NY Giants
3% Chicago
Brandon Lang
10 Point Teaser
Jacksonville/N.Y. Giants Under 54
Minnesota/Washington Over 33.5
San Diego/Indianapolis Over 40.5
Teddy Covers
Suns
Pacers
Notre Dame
BIG AL
ELITE INFO - FALCONS -2
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Green Bay. This is the best game of the week, as it matches up two of the four best teams in the NFC, and it will go a long way toward determining home field advantage (and the valuable Bye in the first round of the Playoffs afforded the top 2 seeds). Both teams feature young, talented QBs (Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers), but Atlanta also has a strong RB in Michael Turner. Green Bay's top back, Ryan Grant, was injured at the start of the season, and the Packers' offense has been forced to be a bit more one-dimensional than coach Mike McCarthy would prefer. This will be a tough game for Green Bay to win, and not just because the Falcons have won 14 straight home games with Matt Ryan under center. The Packers' defense has been unbelievable over the past three weeks, with a 9-0 shutout vs. the Jets, and then 45-7 and 31-3 wins over Dallas and Minnesota. But NFL teams usually play poorly after 3 straight games of holding their foes to less than 10 points, and especially if they scored 30+ points in their most recent game (0-11 ATS since 1980). Look for Atlanta to roll over the Packers today. NFL Elite Info play on the Falcons.
KELSO
50 Units Cleveland -9.5
25 Units Green Bay +2
25 Units Texans -6
25 Units Minnesota +1.5
25 Unit Parlay Texans -6 & Minnesota +1.5
10 Units Chargers +2.5
5 Units Bills +6
3 Units Chiefs/Seattle Over 44.5
5 Units Florida State -3.5
3 Units Hornets -1
OC Dooley
5 Units Chiefs -2
3 Units Giants -7
2 Units Panthers +9.5
2 Units Bears +3.5
Seabass
500* Carolina/Cleveland Under 38
200* Denver -3
200* GB/Atlanta Over 47
200* Bears
100* Ravens
100* Teaser Houston & Pittsburgh
Pure Lock
San Diego
Mike Neri Sports
4* NY Giants -7.5
3* Pittsburgh -6
3* Baltimore -7.5
3* San Diego / Indianapolis Under 50.5
Evan Altemus
1* Steelers / Bills Over 43
Buffalo's defense has been awful all season, and last week was no exception despite getting a comeback win against Cincinnati. The Bills still gave up over 30 points and overall have given up an average of 160 yards per game on the ground. That is not good news for them against a power running team like Pittsburgh. The Steelers offense is clicking right now as well. They have scored 35, 26, and 27 points in their last 3 games. Meanwhile, Buffalo's pass first offense matches up very well against the Pittsburgh secondary. The Steelers defense really struggles to stop teams with good passing attacks just like they did against New England and New Orleans. This selection works out well overall because the game will go over regardless of if the game is close or a Pittsburgh blowout. The Steelers are going to have success on offense regardless of what Buffalo does on offense. Weather will not be a factor in this game either as temperatures are expected to be around 50 degrees and sunny.
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Atlanta Falcons -2
Currently on a 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS regular season run on the road, the Cheeseheads are enjoying life at the moment. The problem, though, is that in their last three game the Packers have surrendered seven or less points in each contest and our database reminds us that what goes up must come down. That's because teams that teams in this role that scored 28 or more points in its last game are 0-10 ATS since 1980. With the fighting Falcons unbeaten in five home games this season and 8-3 ATS and 14-7 home under Mike Smith, including 6-0 SU and ATS as favorites of four or less points, we'll back the Dirty Birds here today.
Sean Michaels
100 Dime Minnesota
Score
400% Philadelphia
Cowtown Sports
5* Atlanta -1.5
4* Baltimore -7
3* NY Giants -7
Power Play Wins
Seattle Seahawks +2
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Harvard
3 Units Florida
Joseph D'Amico
3* Steelers -6
2* Titans +6