Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, November 29,2009

Dave Malinsky

4* MIAMI/BUFFALO UNDER

So often the best situations at this stage of the season are those that the oddsmakers and markets simply miss because there is seemingly no reason for them to take a second look. Buffalo’s defensive performance at Jacksonville last week was just such a setting, and we can get ahead of the curve at the value being offered this week.Perry Fewell stepped up to the challenge when forced into the interim coaching position last week; despite the fact that he has almost no chance to be a candidate for the full-time spot he knows a lot of eyes are following in terms of jobs opening up at other places (and perhaps to even stay on as DC here). And while Fewell’s defense has been a disaster this year, so much of that was because of injuries, including such key cogs as Paul Posluszny, Aaron Schobel, Donte Whitner and Terrence McGee. Now the missing pieces are coming back, and what he is doing with them not only mattered at Jacksonville, but can make a big difference this week. With Whitner back to health they spent a lot of the game in sets using three safeties, and what had been one of the weakest rush defenses in the N.F.L. held Maurice Jones-Drew to 66 yards on 25 carries. He did not have a run longer than 10 yards, and the 2.6 per carry was about half of the 5.1 per attempt he was averaging coming in.The Bills played hard on defense for Fewell, and played well, with the safeties leading the way. And the positive attitude is carrying forward. This, from George Wilson - "It does wonders for us because we can disguise our man and zone pressures whenever we're blitzing. Our safeties are so interchangeable that we can matchup with just about any skill guy that's out there and not feel like we're in a mismatch. That gives our coordinator great confidence to be able to dial up those pressures or man coverages and try to confuse the opposing offenses." And from Jairus Byrd - "I'm excited about how they are using us. We have guys who have shown the ability to make plays, so the coaches are looking for ways to get us on the field together. We had some success with it in Jacksonville, so we look forward to seeing how we can expand that."Expect to see a lot of those sets this week, and we believe it will be the ideal counter to those Dolphin Wildcat schemes. With Chad Henne lacking experience, and with the Miami WR’s as mediocre of a group as there is, there just are not a lot of other options for Tony Sparano. But Sparano can be content go just plug away and play for field position anyway, largely because his own defense can keep the Bills under control. A Buffalo OL that was going to be a work in progress with so many new faces this season has instead become a train wreck. When the game ended last week there were only five healthy players left in that unit, and there is absolutely no chemistry. They will be starting their seventh different combination this week, with Geoff Hangartner the only player to appear in all 10 games. Three players have started at LT and four at RT, none of them very good, and that means huge headaches on the outside against Joey Porter and Jason Taylor. The Dolphins already have 26 sacks, and can make life even more miserable for Ryan Fitzpatrick than it already is most games.

4* HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colt SU run is reaching some historic levels at the current 19-0. But there is a different kind of history that they just made that tells us much more about where they really are – they just became the first team in N.F.L. history to win four consecutive games by a combined total of 10 points. Six of their 10 wins have come by four points or less, and if the season ended today only two of those 10 opponents would be in the playoffs. This line is based on that dramatic SU win streak, but the true realities tells us that we have a pick’em game here, and we get a chance to take points with a home team that can exploit the biggest Indy weaknesses.Is calling this pick’em a stretch? Hardly. The Colts are +32 first downs and +727 yards this season. The Texans are +18 and +380 in the same categories. Adjust for the home field, and the fact that Houston has played the slightly tougher schedule, and the counts find you in the pick’em range. It is partly the brilliance of Peyton Manning that has had the Colts pull out so many close games, but also some extreme fortune as well. If Kris Brown makes that late FG three weeks ago, these two would have gone to O.T. at Lucas Oil Stadium. If Kevin Faulk does not have a slight bobble two weeks ago the Patriots win on that same field. Last week all John Flacco had to do was make a better read on an awful late-game interception, and the Ravens are in a prime position to win as well.The Colts have not run the ball well, netting just 3.8 per carry and producing 226 fewer yards than their opponents. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have 141 of the 272 pass receptions, and because the other options are so limited we believe the second time around in division play will be a much tougher challenge for Manning and the passing attack, as the defenses get a chance to make significant adjustments. And while the defense still rates #1 in the league for fewest points allowed, the absence of Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson and Tyjuan Hagler for the remainder of the season, and Kelvin Hayden, Aaron Francisco and Keyunta Dawson this week, makes them vulnerable against this class of passing attack on the road. Manning’s 8.17 per pass attempt, and 21 TD passes vs. nine INT’s is special, but note that Matt Schaub checks in at 8.10, 19 and nine in the same categories. Now that James Casey is healthy again they can mitigate the loss of Owen Daniels a bit, and they have a trio of rookie CB’s in Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers that they can line Andre Johnson up against. So just where are the advantages that a road favorite in this pointspread range is supposed to have?The Texans bring no intimidation at all in this matchup. They had the Colts beaten on this field LY until those late Sage Rosenfels turnovers (it was 27-10 with less than 5:00 remaining), and played them dead even on the road earlier. Because of that they bring the confidence level to attack, which is the way to get after this opponent right now, and that aggressiveness leads to an outright win that really is not much of an upset.

5* TENNESSEE/ARIZONA UNDER

It should not come as any surprise that we land on this one – after cashing a 6* Under ticket with the Titans on Monday night, and then focusing on how misleading their defensive numbers are in this week’s N.F.L. edition of ”Verities & Balderdash”, we can easily stay in play as the markets deal the wrong line range.Yes, you will see awful statistics for the Tennessee pass defense. That is what happens when you lose three key contributors from the secondary at the same time, and are forced to start a pair of rookie CB’s in back-to-back games against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who lit them up for 90 points, 735 yards through the air, and nine TD passes. But now Cortland Finnegan, Vincent Fuller and Nick Harper are all healthy again, while Rod Hood has had several weeks to learn the Titan schemes and is also now a prime part of the rotation. Instead of being near the bottom of the league this is a capable defense, and one playing with a lot of confidence and enthusiasm in the current 4-0 SU run.But the markets lag behind. When was the last time we saw a 46 dealt as a Total on this field? You have to go back 21 games, to December of 2006 against the Colts. Now it is not just a case of the Tennessee defense putting better players on the field, but that the game flows also slow down, as they get back to playing Jeff Fisher football again. And this is not a Total for a Fisher game.Arizona also contributes for our purposes this week. The Cardinal defense has been outstanding on the road this season, allowing only 14.2 points per game (that includes a couple of garbage-time TD’s when they were leading 34-7 in the fourth quarter at Chicago), and their depth and quickness up front make a big difference in slowing Chris Johnson down, and keeping Vince Young in the pocket. Meanwhile the offensive focus continues to be more on working underneath than stretching the field (neither Larry Fitzgerald nor Anquan Boldin are averaging more than 12.0 per catch), and in recent weeks we have see a lot more two TE looks, which not only helps the running game, but brings better protection on the edges for a fragile Kurt Warner. It all adds to bring a much different flow than what the oddsmakers have called for, and we take advantage.

RON RAYMOND

5* Buffalo Bills +3.5

5* Buccaneers / Falcons Under 46

Sir Duke Sports

10* Monday Night GOY

New England Patriots +3

Payne Sports

10 Units GOW Tennessee -2

SIXTH SENSE

BEST BETS

YTD 31-30 –6.30%

3% INDIANAPOLIS -3
3% MIAMI –3.5
3% PITTSBURGH +2.5 Only if Roethlisberger plays.
3% NEW ORLEANS –1.5

Indianapolis -3 HOUSTON 48

Colts barely survived at Baltimore last week but they dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. They out passed Baltimore 9.6yps to 7.3yps and out gained them overall 6.7yppl to 5.4yppl. Houston lost a heartbreaker to Tennessee and missed a game tying field attempt in the final seconds for the second game in a row. They were out rushed badly by Tennessee 5.4ypr to 3.4ypr and 228 yards to 57 yards. They did out pass Tennessee 6.6yps to 5.3yps and out gained Tennessee overall 5.7yppl to 5.4yppl overall. Part of that overall gain was because they threw the ball 21 more times, while Tennessee ran the ball 35 more times than Houston. Indy averages just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr but 7.9yps against 6.5yps and 6.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. While Indy doesn’t run the ball well, they still manage to run it better than Houston, who averages just 3.2ypr against 4.4ypr. Houston throws the ball well at 7.4yps against 6.2yps but still not as well as Indy. Overall, they average 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl, which also isn’t nearly as good as the Indy offense. On defense, Houston allows 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. Indy qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 460-302-21. Numbers favor Indy by 7.5 points and predict about 45 points. The Colts have barely gotten by in their last four games, winning those games by a combined 10 points, including a three point win over these Texans a few weeks ago when Kris Brown missed a chance to tie the game with a field goal at the end of regulation. A bit hesitant to play the Colts in this game because their secondary is so banged up but the situation is in their favor and all three sets of numbers I use say there is value on their side. Combine that with Peyton Manning who just seems to win games against a Houston team who just doesn’t seem to be able to win games when they have to and they have to win this game to have a chance. For Indy, a win here and a Jacksonville loss and they clinch their division. While the Colts may elect to take it easy in a few weeks with such a large lead in the conference I don’t think it happens here. They have also defeated Houston here six of seven years. Last year Houston had them down and a key Sage Rosenfals fumble gave the Colts new life and allowed them to come back and win the game by four points. They run the ball better (although not that well), throw the ball better and have a better defense overall. This series is also traditionally a high scoring series, with these teams totally at least 51 points in each of the last four years here. The numbers only suggest about 45 points and I will respect them enough to stay away from the total. Also, don’t want to go under the total with such a history of high scoring games and both teams ability to throw the ball. INDIANAPOLIS 28 HOUSTON 17

CINCINNATI -13 Cleveland 38.5

Cincinnati was upset at Oakland last week but Oakland was in a good spot. The Bengal’s did out gain Oakland 4.1ypr to 3.8ypr, 6.8yps to 5.4yps and 5.1yppl to 4.7yppl overall. They allowed Oakland to score 10 points in the last minute of the game. For Cleveland, you can look at their performance one of two ways. They jumped out to a 24-3 lead on Detroit, then allowed the Lions to come all the way back, secured the lead late again and then lost the game on a couple of dumb plays at the end of the game. They gained 8.8yps and 5.9yppl overall, which is a huge improvement over any game they have played this season. The bad side is they allowed Detroit, almost as equally inept on offense, to pass for 9.5yps and gain 7.8yppl overall. Part of the overall numbers are skewed a bit because Cleveland chose to run the ball 23 times more than Detroit and pass nine times fewer. Cleveland averages just 3.7ypr against 4.0ypr, a terrible 4.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.0yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense they allow 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.3yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Cincinnati averages 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl and allows just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. Cincinnati qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 100-51-4 but Cleveland qualifies in my turnover table, which is 407-262-22. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 19.5 points and predict about 39 points. The dog is 10-0 in Cincinnati games this year. Cleveland struggles to score on the road against good teams. They have been out scored by an average of 21 points on the road against good teams this year. I’ll predict a 14 point victory and let the line make the final decision. CINCINNATI 23 CLEVELAND 9

MINNESOTA -10.5 Chicago 46.5

Chicago came out and ran the ball well last week against a good Philly defense, averaging 6.3ypr on 126 yards. They only threw for 158 yards at 3.6yps. They allowed Philly to rush for 157 yards at 5.2ypr although some of those yards were with Michael Vick and aren’t normal rushing yards allowed. They also allowed Philly to throw for 6.1yps. Overall, Chicago averaged just 4.4yppl and allowed Philly to average 5.7yppl. The Vikings destroyed Seattle with a balanced attack again. They rushed for 4.3ypr, while limiting Seattle to just 0.3ypr. They also threw for 7.7yps and allowed Seattle 6.7yps. Overall, they gained 6.0yppl to 4.8yppl for Seattle. The Vikings now average 7.2yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but 5.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. Chicago averages just 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Minnesota by 11 points and predict about 50 points. Vikings destroyed Chicago here last year 34-14. I don’t see it being much different this year. Vikings are playing at a very high level right now. MINNESOTA 30 CHICAGO 13

PHILADELPHIA -9 Washington 41

Washington played a tough game at Dallas last week but came up short again and suffered some more key injuries. They were out rushed by Dallas, 153-78 and 4.6ypr to 3.9ypr but out passed Dallas 6.5yps to 5.4yps. Overall, they out gained Dallas 5.6yppl to 5.0yppl, again some of that is slightly skewed because they chose to pass the ball more often than Dallas. Philly needed a win after losing two straight and they went to Chicago and got it. They were out rushed in that game 6.3ypr to 5.2ypr but out yarded Chicago 157-126. They out passed Chicago 6.1yps to 3.6yps and out gained the Bears overall, 5.7yppl to 4.4yppl. Washington averages just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 5.3yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. Philly averages 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Washington qualifies in my turnover table, which is 407-262-22. Numbers favor Philly by 13 points and predict about 37 points. Washington has won here the last two years and three of the last four years. I would like to give them a shot but they have so many injuries, it’s just too hard to ask them to continue to stay close in these games. I will lean their way because of the situation but can’t pull the trigger. PHILADELPHIA 24 WASHINGTON 16

Miami -3.5 BUFFALO 40

Miami comes off their Thursday night win over Carolina. They were out rushed in that game 6.7ypr to 5.0ypr. They out passed Carolina 5.9yps to 4.4yps and out gained them overall 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. The Bills played a competitive game at Jacksonville and held a good Jacksonville running game to 3.0ypr but only averaged 2.8ypr themselves, as they continue to struggle to run the ball. They did out pass Jacksonville 8.8yps to 6.5yps but 98 yards came on a pass to Owens. Take away that long pass play and they averaged 6.0yps. That’s still an improvement over what they have managed up to this point in the season and you can’t take away that long pass play, but it’s not likely to keep happening like that either. Overall, they out gained Jacksonville 6.6yppl to 4.7yppl. Again, remove that long pass play and they averaged 4.8yppl, which is still better than what Jacksonville averaged. Miami averages 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr but 6.7yps against 6.5yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Buffalo averages just 4.0ypr against 4.5ypr and 5.5yps against 6.3yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl overall. Miami qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 554-420-14 and 460-302-21. Numbers favor Miami by 3.5 points and predict about 41 points. Miami won on the road last year 16-3 (game was played in Toronto) but lost the previous three years here. Weather should be pretty mild for this time of year in Buffalo. Always dangerous to lay points on the road with a team that doesn’t throw the ball well and Miami still has injuries in their secondary. But, Buffalo has been horrible trying to score points, defend the run, etc. And they lost two more offensive lineman last week. They may get their cornerback back this week but the injuries are piling up on Buffalo and Miami has had 10 days to prepare for the Bills. Better rushing offense, equally bad passing offense and a better rushing defense. MIAMI 27 BUFFALO 14

TENNESSEE -2.5 Arizona 46

Arizona jumped out to a 21-3 lead over the Rams last week and then removed Kurt Warner due to a possible concussion. The Cardinals attack pretty much shutdown after that. They still managed to out rush the Rams, 6.1ypr to 4.6ypr, which is very important seeing the Rams have rushed the ball well this year. They out passed the Rams 7.5yps to 4.8yps and out gained them overall, 6.8yppl to 4.7yppl. Tennessee went to Houston and escaped with a big win. They out rushed the Texans 228-57 and 5.4ypr to 3.4ypr. They were out passed 6.6yps to 5.3yps and out gained 5.7yppl to 5.4yppl but a lot of that was because Houston threw the ball 21 times more than Tennessee. Arizona averages 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Tennessee averages a healthy 5.3ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.6yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr but just 6.6yps against 6.7yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. Tennessee qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 690-554-42 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Arizona by one point and predict about 48 points. Kurt Warner should play in this game but if they get behind or jump out to a big lead, he could come out of the game. Also, this game doesn’t mean as much for Arizona as they have a good handle on their division, they will not get a bye in the playoffs unless Minnesota or New Orleans completely collapse and it is a non-conference game, which plays a lesser role in the tie breaking procedures. Not enough value for me on Tennessee to play them. If I could get the Titans as a dog, I would probably jump on them but with them laying points, I am reluctant to take them. I’ll lean their way but that is it. TENNESSEE 27 ARIZONA 24

Seattle -4 ST LOUIS 42

Seattle was throttled by a balanced Viking attack last week. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 0.3ypr, out passed 7.7yps to 6.7yps and out gained overall 6.0yppl to 4.8yppl. The Rams were blown out early, trailing 21-3 at halftime and then Kurt Warner left the game and they did nothing after that, allowing the Rams to get the cover in a 21-13 loss. They were still badly out gained, 6.1ypr to 4.6ypr (183-123), out passed 7.5yps to 4.8yps and out gained overall, 6.8yppl to 4.7yppl. Seattle averages just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.7yps against 6.3yps for a total of 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. The Rams average 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They may be without their best player, Stephen Jackson this week. They allow 4.7ypr against 45.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Seattle by 3.5 points and predict about 36 points. Seattle has won four straight here in St. Louis but they have all been close games with wins by 3, 5, 2 and 6 points. Seattle has three wins on the season with all of those at home and two of those wins against bad teams, the Rams and Lions. They have been blown out in all of their road games but they have all come against very good teams, for the most part. As for the Rams, they haven’t won a home game but they have all come against very solid teams (GB, Minn, Indy, NO and Arizona). I will lean the Rams way but without Stephen Jackson (he may miss this game), that would be a big loss for the Rams. ST LOUIS 17 SEATTLE 16

ATLANTA -12 Tampa Bay 46

TB was blown out by NO last week, 38-7. They did manage to average 5.1ypr but allowed NO 5.2ypr. Their passing game was terrible, allowing NO to average 6.4yps to just 2.8yps and out gained overall, 5.7yppl to 3.7yppl. They also lost the turnover battle 0-4. Atlanta lost a heartbreaker in OT at NY. They were out rushed 3.4ypr to 3.0ypr and out passed badly, 9.2yps to 5.5yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.9yppl to 4.5yppl. TB averages just 4.8yps against 5.7yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.5ypr, 7.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl. Atlanta averages 6.2yps against 5.8yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.5ypr but against teams averaging 4.6ypr, 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. TB qualifies in my turnover table, which is 407-262-22. Numbers favor Atlanta by 12.5 points and predict about 48 points. TB is obviously a much different team this year than in years past but Atlanta hasn’t won by more than 11 points against TB here since they started playing each year in 2002. TB has somewhat stayed in games on the road, losing by no more than 13 points in any game except a 19 point loss at Philadelphia and a 28 point loss in London to the Patriots. Atlanta hasn’t won a home game by more than 14 points. I’ll lean towards TB because of the situation, but it’s just a weak lean. ATLANTA 31 TAMPA BAY 20

NY JETS -3 Carolina 41

Carolina had chances early in the game against Miami last Thursday but missed on a couple of pass attempts to Steve Smith, who was wide open for potential big gains. It ultimately came back to bite them because they weren’t able to shut down Miami, nor generate enough offense to get in the endzone. They out rushed Miami 6.7ypr to 5.0ypr but were out passed 5.9yps to 4.4ps. Overall, they were out gained 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. The Jets were beaten by 17 in NE but had chances in that game. They didn’t move the ball that well in the game but five turnovers by Mark Sanchez cost them a chance at the cover and possibly a chance to win that game. They out rushed NE 4.0ypr to 3.2ypr, were out passed 7.0yps to 5.3yps and out gained overall 5.3yppl to 4.6yppl. NE threw the ball 20 more times than the Jets to help create the difference in the yppl numbers. Carolina averages 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. The Jets average 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Jets by nine points and predict about 37 points. Hard to have a lot of confidence in the Jets with the way Sanchez is playing and I wanted to lean towards Carolina but all my numbers support the Jets. I’ll lean their way based on that, they do have a better defense, and Carolina is starting to get hit with a few injuries here and there that seem to be adding up. NY JETS 21 CAROLINA 17

SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 Jacksonville 41.5

Jacksonville escaped with a win over Buffalo at home last week but it was less than dominating. They out rushed Buffalo, 3.0ypr to 2.8ypr and were out passed 8.8yps to 6.5yps and out gained overall 6.6yppl to 4.7yppl. The Bills completed one long pass for 98 yards to skew those numbers somewhat but they still out gained Jacksonville overall. SF was blown out early at GB but managed to come back and get the late cover. They out rushed GB 6.9ypr to 4.9ypr but only had 10 rushing attempts and one was for 42 yards. Overall, they were out rushed 158-69. They were out passed by GB, 6.9yps to 6.0yps and out gained GB overall, 6.2yppl to 6.1yppl. Jacksonville averages 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 7.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. SF averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SF by 6.5 points and predict about 42 points. Never thrilled to lay points with an offense such as SF but I like their defense better as Jacksonville will be without CB Mathis again. SF has a chance to move the ball on offense with their elite players in Davis, Crabtree and Gore against a below average Jacksonville defense. They are a more physical team as well. Slight lean towards SF. SAN FRANCISCO 24 JACKSONVILLE 17

SAN DIEGO -13.5 Kansas City 45

The Charges went to Denver and dominated the Broncos from the start in an easy 32-2 win. They were out rushed by Denver 6.8ypr to 4.7ypr but out rushed them 203 to 115. SD ran the ball 26 more times. They out passed Denver 6.6yps to 4.3yps and out gained them overall, 5.4yppl to 5.1yppl. KC got the OT win at home against Pittsburgh but they were very lucky to do so. Turnovers and special team scores kept them in the game. They were badly out gained in the game by Pittsburgh. They were out rushed 3.7ypr to 3.4ypr (114-68), out passed 8.5yps to 6.1yps (401-214) and out gained overall, 6.6yppl to 5.1yppl (515-282). A plus two in the turnover department also aided their upset win. KC averages just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.9yps against 6.0yps and 4.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The Chargers average just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr but 7.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl as their defense seems to be getting better each week. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SD by 16.5 points and predict about 49 points. KC has been double digit dogs here the last two years, winning two years ago and losing by one point last year when Herm Edwards elected to try for a two point conversion at the end of the game to win instead of force OT. KC has lost by more than 11 points just once in the past ten years here in SD. SD hasn’t won a home game by more than 10 points this year. I actually like this game to go over the total but will avoid making it a best bet because KC’s offense is below average but the Chargers are going to get their points and may be missing some key people on defense. SAN DIEGO 30 KANSAS CITY 17

BALTIMORE -2.5 Pittsburgh 39.5

The Ravens had chances last week against Indy but they were out played in that game. They slightly out rushed a bad Indy rushing team, 3.2ypr to 3.0ypr but were out passed 9.6yps to 7.3yps and out gained overall, 6.7yppl to 5.4yppl. Pittsburgh was upset at KC in OT but the Steelers dominated that game from the line of scrimmage. Turnovers and a kick return did them in. They out rushed KC 3.7ypr to 3.4ypr (114-68), out passed KC 8.5yps to 6.1yps (401-214) and out gained the Chiefs overall, 6.6yppl to 5.1yppl (515-282). A minus two in the turnover department also killed their chances of winning the game. The Ravens average 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Pittsburgh averages 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. Pittsburgh qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 407-262-22. Numbers favor Baltimore by three points before accounting for the situation and predict about 42 points. Roethlisberger should start here but there are a few reports that he may not so I need to wait until final word comes down on his status. Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore three times last year, including the great game here with the goal line catch in the last minute that gave them a 13-9 victory. Pittsburgh did lose five straight games here prior to last year. Assuming Roethlisberger plays, Pittsburgh runs the ball as well as Baltimore, throws the ball much better and plays defense against the rush and pass much better than Baltimore. Other than their win over SD (Chargers were banged up for that game) and a win over Denver, Baltimore has failed their tests against the solid teams this year. Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly destroyed the good teams they have played this year but beat Denver just like Baltimore and played Cincinnati as well, if not better than Baltimore. I like the Steelers here if they are getting points. PITTSBURGH 20 BALTIMORE 17

NEW ORLEANS -1.5 New England 57

NE dominated the Jets last week and won by 17 but they were greatly aided by four Mark Sanchez interceptions and one lost fumble. They were out rushed by NY, 4.0ypr to 3.2ypr, out passed the Jets 7.0yps to 5.3yps and out gained the Jets overall 5.3yppl to 4.6yppl. They also threw the ball 20 more times to help create the difference in the yppl numbers. The Saints went to TB and dominated from the get go in their 38-7 win. They out rushed TB 5.2ypr to 5.1ypr (183-119), out passed them 6.4yps to 2.8yps and out gained TB overall, 5.7yppl to 3.7yppl. NE averages 7.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. The Saints average 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr, a whopping 7.9yps against 6.3yps and 6.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.4yps against 5.7yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. The Saints qualify in momentum situation, which is 81-38-7. They also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is 26-8-2. Numbers favor NO by five points and predict about 59 points. NE has played three good teams this year on the road (Jets were decent when they played them) and lost all three of those games. Granted, they had Indy defeated until the key fourth down, fourth quarter call. Saints numbers are better than NE and they are playing at home with some solid situations in their favor. It’s not just that NO throws the ball better than NE, they rush the ball better, averaging 155 yards a game. The defense is on the same level as NE. NE is a very good team, but I don’t think they are as good as NO, who really thrives in the dome in these types of games. I would like to play the over but this total is just way too high to attempt to win this and NO is a more balanced team on offense than most people think and their willingness to run the ball obviously eats the clock. NEW ORLEANS 34 NEW ENGLAND 24

Steven Budin

25 DIME Tennessee

Tim Trushel

20* Tennessee
Houston
Chicago

Brandon Lang

30 DIME - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

(Note: If the line is 3, you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2; if the line is 3 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and get 4)

Great spot for the Jags to continue their winning ways today.

First and foremost, I really don't think the Niners are playing well enough right now to be a favorite over anybody.

Secondly, with the AFC being a far superior conference, I have been jumping on the AFC getting points from the NFC, just like the 20 dime winner on the Broncos over the Giants on Thursday.

Bottom line is the Jaguars are surging right now - winners of 3 in a row - and have worked their way back into the AFC playoff picture. This team is improving by the week and I like what I am seeing from Jack Del Rio's squad.

The Niners are off a very misleading final last week as they trailed 23-3 before rallying in the 4th to get the pointspread push at Green Bay.

Alex Smith is not the answer at QB for the Niners and they just are not a good enough football team to beat the Jags today.

People are jumping on the Niners in this spot based on the fact this Jags' team went to Seattle earlier this year and got destroyed by a count of 41-0, but like I said above, this is a completely different Jags' team.

The Jags have the better QB, the better run defense and - with no disrespect to Frank Gore - the best running back on the field today in Maurice Jones-Drew.

I truly believe this game today comes down to which QB makes the most plays and for my dollar that QB is David Garrad.

30 dime winner Jacksonville.

Blade:

Now I understand why you say that you don't follow any of the cappers that you post on here. None of them know jackshit!

Now I understand why you say that you don't follow any of the cappers that you post on here. None of them know jackshit!

;D

DOUBLE DRAGON

COLTS -3
DOLPHINS -3 (-120)
PANTHERS +3.5
TITANS -2
VIKINGS -10 (-120)
PATRIOTS +3 (-130)

Kelso

15 units Rams +4
5 units Tennessee -2
4 units Dolphins -3.5
3 units Jax/49ers Under 41.5

Karl Garrett

30 Dime - ATL
30 Dime - SF
30 Dime - KC