RAS
All One Unit
Arizona St +3
Portland St +12.5
Cornell -2
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Jets -3
The Jets are clearly hurting right now, but with their struggles has come some nice value this Sunday as they host the Carolina Panthers as just a 3-point favorite. Carolina had a chance to get back into the playoff picture last week, but they lost at home 17-24 to the Miami Dolphins. Now they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way, and their schedule is very daunting with road games against the Jets, Pats and Giants and a home meetings with the Vikings. The Jets can get back into the race over the next 4 weeks in games they should win and will likely be favored in. Everything will come together for them Sunday knowing that this is their last chance to get the season turned back around. Both teams rely heavily on the run, and the Jets have the better run defense which is a big reason we are siding with New York. The Jets allow 111 rushing yards/game and 4.0 yards/carry this season, including 109 yards/game and 3.7 yards/carry at home. Meanwhile, the Panthers give up 131 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry overall, and 133 yards/game and 5.0 yards/carry on the road. This is where the game will be won, which is on the ground. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and there's really only one team you could think about backing Sunday and it's New York. Take the Jets and lay the points.
5* Wiseguy NFL "STEAL" of the Week on Seattle Seahawks -3
No Marc Bulger for the Rams gives them no chance to beat the Seahawks in Week 12. The Rams have been competitive of late with Bulger running the show, but they just aren't the same team without him. And even with him most of the way, they are just 1-9 this season. Seattle already beat St. Louis 28-0 at home earlier this season, and not even home field advantage can save the Rams this weekend. Seattle is 9-0 S.U. & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with St. Louis, and that cannot go ignored here. The Rams are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC West. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Seattle has basically beaten the teams they were supposed to beat this season, and lost to the teams they weren't supposed to beat. The Rams classify as a team they should beat this week, and we fully expect the Seahawks to take care of business running away. Take Seattle and lay the points as the biggest steal this Sunday in pro football.
4* on San Francisco 49ers -3
We are getting a solid price here Sunday on the 49ers at home as they host the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is just 2-3 on the road this season, losing by 10.2 points/game. The Jaguars are not as good as their record indicates, because they have been escaping with wins over bad teams. They beat the Rams by 3, Chiefs by 3, Jets by 2 and Bills by 3 in their last 4 wins. The 49ers are better than all those teams with maybe the exception of New York, and they'll prove it on the field Sunday. Though the 49ers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, all 4 of those losses have come by 7 points or less so they are playing better than their record indicates. The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The 49ers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the 49ers and lay the points.
4* on Houston Texans +4
Houston has suffered some heartbreaking losses to the Colts recently, but we are predicting they get over the hump Sunday. In their last 3 meetings with Indy, they have lost by 4, 6 and 3 points. There comes a time when a team says enough is enough, and Houston does that this weekend as they come together as a team and likely upset the Colts at home. Houston is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992. The Texans are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. The Colts are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. AFC South opponents. The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Take Houston and the points.
4* on Miami Dolphins -3
With Buffalo having nothing going their way of late, they now find themselves with a 3-7 record and out of the playoff hunt. They have nothing to play for the rest of the way, while Miami has worked their way back into the playoff picture by winning 5 of their last 7 games after an 0-3 start. They smell blood in the water Sunday and we fully expect the Dolphins to pounce on the Bills early and to run it out the rest of the way behind Ricky Williams, who has been spectacular of late in carrying the load. He finished with 119 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in their 24-17 road win over the Panthers last week. Also giving the Dolphins a big edge here is the fact that they've had 3 extra days to prepare for Buffalo after playing on a Thursday last week. Buffalo had lost back-to-back games by 21 and 24 points before putting up a fight against Jacksonville last week in a 15-18 loss. But after they led most of the second half, they allowed the Jaguars to score the game-winner in the final minute and now all of the life has been sucked out of the Bills. They won't recover in time to put up a fight against a superior Dolphins' team Sunday. Miami is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Buffalo is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo has a huge injury list right now, and on it is Marshawn Lynch who had to leave last week's game with a shoulder injury. The Bills are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games, so there isn't much of an advantage for them on their home field. Take the Dolphins and lay the points.
Wunderdog
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennesse Titans
5 Units: Arizona Cardinals +2.5
The Titans were left for dead after an 0-6 start, but they have turned it around with four straight wins with Vince Young back under center. Young said this week he was surprised by the 4-0 record. I think he's on to something. Tennessee has certainly improved. But, to go from 0-6 to 4-0 requires some luck. That luck has come in the form of eight opponent turnovers in the first three wins (vs. just one for Tennessee). You could argue that Young is doing a good job at not turning the ball over. But, the reality is, turnoves are mostly random. When things even out (as they always do), the Titans will find the wins harder to come by. This week they will be facing an equally hot team in the Arizona Cardinals that has won six out of seven. The Cards struggled some early on offense, but it was just a matter of time before they got it going. Over the last seven games they have produced 21 or more points. The Titans will be playing this one on a short week and facing the most complete team they have since starting 0-6. The Cards have really been a tough out playing in the role of an underdog where they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven posted as a dog, including 5-0 ATS as a road dog. Tennessee is just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a victorious record. Playing on Sunday following a Monday game, the Titans are 0-6 ATS on the short week. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. I like Arizona here who I believe is the better team on both sides of the ball and getting points.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home dog:
The Colts are still perfect on the season but have looked vulnerable of late.
Indianapolis, which can clinch the AFC South for the sixth time in seven years with a victory this week coupled with a Jacksonville loss to San Francisco, has won its last four games by just a combined 10 points.
On Nov. 8 against Houston, Kris Brown missed a potential tying 42-yard field goal as time expired and the Colts hung on for a 20-17 win.
It's true that the Colts are 6-3 ATS their last nine, however they always struggle at Reliant Stadium, going 1-5 ATS their last six vs. the Texans on the road.
On the other side of the field: The Texans entered the Nov. 8 matchup riding a three-game winning streak and in the thick of the playoff picture, but they’ve lost their last two by identical 20-17 scores sandwiched around a bye week.
Similar to the loss to the Colts, Brown missed a potential tying 49-yard attempt with 1 second remaining Monday night against Tennessee.
Peyton Manning isn't the only QB on the field of play today; Matt Schaub, who has a career-best 19 TD passes, threw for 305 yards and two TDs last week for his sixth 300-yard game.
The Texans rank 30th in the NFL with 87.4 rushing yards per game, one spot ahead of the Colts (85.0).
Keep in mind that Houston always plays Indianapolis tough; 5-1 ATS overall the last six matchups. It also always performs well in front of the hometown crowd; 12-5 SU their last 17 in front of their hometown fans.
Bottom line: In the first game, the Colts came out in a no-huddle offense and Peyton Manning drove them down the field for a TD, two field goals and a 13-0 second-quarter lead. From that point, the Texans outscored them 17-7.
Houston coaches will settle for pressure and hurries and not sacks against Manning today as they apply a pass rush without resorting to too many blitzes so as to stay with the Colts receivers.
Matt Schaub and the Texans are the hungrier man/team here; look for HOUSTON to improve to 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog and for Indianapolis to fall to 3-4 ATS vs. conference opponents.
10* HOUSTON.
Marc Lawrence
ST. LOUIS RAMS +4
A unique scheduling twist takes place when the Rams host the Seahawks in this NFC West Division battle Sunday afternoon. It happens as Seattle takes to the road of the third straight time while St. Louis returns home for the third straight week. This situation has seen the road team go 2-10 SU and ATS when they are unrested and facing a division opponent, including 0-7 SU and ATS as a favorite or dog of four or less points. With Seattle 2-13 SU in its last 15 road games (0-5 this season) and Rams' QB Kyle Boller 4-0 SU and ATS at home against division opponents in his NFL career, we'll grab the points with the Rams as they avenge a season opening 28-0 loss to the Seahawks here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on St. Louis.
Rocketman
DENVER NUGGETS -15.5
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS this year after a loss by 10 points or more. Minnesota is 2-10 ATS this year after 3 or more consecutive losses. Minnesota is 1-6 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or more. Denver is scoring a whopping 117.6 points per game at home this year. Timberwolves are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games playing on 1 days rest. Timberwolves are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Timberwolves are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. Timberwolves are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Timberwolves are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Nuggets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Nuggets are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Nuggets are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 vs. Western Conference. Nuggets are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 1 days rest. Nuggets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll play Denver for 3 units tonight!
Evan Altemus
CLEVELAND BROWNS +13
Cincinnati is simply being over-rated now because of their good record. However they showed last week against Oakland that they really aren’t as dominant as this line suggests. The NFL is a game of inches with games coming down to one or two plays. The Bengals could very well be 3-7 instead of 7-3 right now. They had very close wins against Baltimore, Pittsburgh (twice), and Cleveland. Those games could have gone either way, but they just ended up going Cincinnati’s way. What would this spread be right now if Cincinnati was 3-7 instead of 7-3? Cleveland played Cincinnati very tough already this season. The Browns are a horrible team, but they showed up to play last week in what could have been a huge letdown spot after a Monday Night Football blowout to Baltimore. The Browns are also finally opening up their offense, and the Bengals don’t have a high scoring team, which makes this high of a spread much harder to cover. Look for Cleveland to keep this game close, especially since it’s a divisional game.
3 UNIT SELECTION BROWNS
Lenny Del Genio
ST. LOUIS RAMS +4.5
This is a very unusual scheduling spot for a pair of NFL teams as Seattle finds itself in the finale of three straight road games while St. Louis is in the last of a trio of home dates. Something will have to give as the Seahawks find themselves winless on the road while the same is the case for the Rams at home. Looks like an old oddsmakers trap to us as they set the line low on the road favorite with the better record, hoping the public would take the bait, which they in fact did. This is a big revenge spot for St. Louis as Seattle blanked them in the season opener, 27-0, which was also HC Spagnuolo's first game. Since that time the Rams have begun to improve, covering their last three games. Seattle, meanwhile, has not. They have lost seven of their last nine, only covering in both SU wins, one over Detroit and the other against Jacksonville. Injuries again are crippling this team, leaving HC Mora Jr to turn to a bevy of younger players. Justin Forsett is now the team's main ball carrier. The OL, LB corps and DB's all are missing significant personnel. The team not only struggles on the road, but is very uncompetitive as well. Seattle has lost 13 of 15 away games, losing all five this year by a total of 88 points or 17.6 PPG. The closest loss came by 11 points to Arizona. St. Louis clearly will have the best player on the field in this matchup in RB Jackson, who is quietly putting together one of the best seasons ever on a last place team. He is averaging 132 RYPG over his last four games. Rams will be eager to break a 0-5 SU/ATS losing skid to the Seahawks with all the games here in the Dome being close. St. Louis is our 25* NFC West Game of the Year.
Great Lake Sports
4* HOUSTON +3
3* Chicago +10.5
3* N Y JETS -3.5
Northcoast
Marquee Pitt
Larry Ness
The 10-0 Colts are tied with the Saints for the best record in the NFL and own a three-game lead in the chase for the AFC's top seed. The Colts also own a 19-game regular season winning streak, which is the second-longest in NFL history behind New England's 21-game run from 2006-08. Nothing has gone wrong for Indy all season, although not much has come easy lately, as the Colts last four wins have been by a combined total of 10 points. Indy edged the 49ers 18-14 in Week 8. The Colts then hung on for a 20-17 Week 9 win over the Texans at home, when Houston's Kris Brown missed a potential game-tying 42-yard FG as time expired. Up next was Indy's 35-34 victory over the Patriots in that now-famous Sunday night game. The Colts scored 14 points in the final 2:23 of that game, taking advantage of Bill Belichick's risky fourth-down gamble, allowing Peyton Manning to hit Reggie Wayne in the end zone for the winning score with 13 seconds left. After those three home wins, Indy's latest 'thriller' came last Sunday at Baltimore, when Gary Brackett intercepted Joe Flacco's pass at the Indianapolis 13-yard line with 2:42 remaining which preserved a 17-15 win. The Texans could use a little bit of the Colts' good fortune. Houston took a three-game winning streak into that 20-17 loss at Indy (Texans were 5-3 for the first-time in team history), then had a bye week. This past Monday, the Texans again lost just 20-17, as Brown missed another potential game-tying 49-yard FG attempt with one second remaining against the Titans. The Texans have never had a winning season (have finished 8-8 three times, including the last two seasons) and know they'll have to win a majority of their last six games to secure their first winning season in eight years (and maybe, a playoff berth). Getting a win against Indy may not be that easy, considering the Colts are 14-1 all-time vs the Texans. Peyton has been pretty good (a HUGE understatement) vs the Texans, throwing for 4,177 yards with 34 TDs and just six interceptions. Manning is suffering from a glute injury but returned to practice on Wednesday and is probable (he's NEVER missed a game and WON'T here!). WRs receivers Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon plus RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are all less than 100% but will play. Matt Schaub is no Manning but he already owns a career-best 19 TD passes (with six games left) and after throwing for 305 yards and two TDs last week, has six 300-yard games this year (19-9 ratio in '09 / 67.1% / QB rating of 98.9). Houston WR Andre Johnson is "as good as it gets" and had 10 catches for 103 yards against the Colts earlier this month. The Colts are LONG overdue for a slip-up and after back-to-back hard-luck losses, this looks like a great spot for the Texans. Neither team has much of a running game, as the Texans rank 30th in the NFL with 87.4 YPG and the Colts ranking 31st at 85.0 YPG. The first time around the score was 20-17 but that could be this game's halftime score. Note that these teams have averaged 57.2 PPG in their six meetings the previous three season with the lowest game score being 51 points. 8* on the Hou Texans.
The 10-0 Colts are tied with the Saints for the best record in the NFL and own a three-game lead in the chase for the AFC's top seed. The Colts also own a 19-game regular season winning streak, which is the second-longest in NFL history behind New England's 21-game run from 2006-08. Nothing has gone wrong for Indy all season, although not much has come easy lately, as the Colts last four wins have been by a combined total of 10 points. Indy edged the 49ers 18-14 in Week 8. The Colts then hung on for a 20-17 Week 9 win over the Texans at home, when Houston's Kris Brown missed a potential game-tying 42-yard FG as time expired. Up next was Indy's 35-34 victory over the Patriots in that now-famous Sunday night game. The Colts scored 14 points in the final 2:23 of that game, taking advantage of Bill Belichick's risky fourth-down gamble, allowing Peyton Manning to hit Reggie Wayne in the end zone for the winning score with 13 seconds left. After those three home wins, Indy's latest 'thriller' came last Sunday at Baltimore, when Gary Brackett intercepted Joe Flacco's pass at the Indianapolis 13-yard line with 2:42 remaining which preserved a 17-15 win. The Texans could use a little bit of the Colts' good fortune. Houston took a three-game winning streak into that 20-17 loss at Indy (Texans were 5-3 for the first-time in team history), then had a bye week. This past Monday, the Texans again lost just 20-17, as Brown missed another potential game-tying 49-yard FG attempt with one second remaining against the Titans. The Texans have never had a winning season (have finished 8-8 three times, including the last two seasons) and know they'll have to win a majority of their last six games to secure their first winning season in eight years (and maybe, a playoff berth). Getting a win against Indy may not be that easy, considering the Colts are 14-1 all-time vs the Texans. Peyton has been pretty good (a HUGE understatement) vs the Texans, throwing for 4,177 yards with 34 TDs and just six interceptions. Manning is suffering from a glute injury but returned to practice on Wednesday and is probable (he's NEVER missed a game and WON'T here!). WRs receivers Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon plus RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are all less than 100% but will play. Matt Schaub is no Manning but he already owns a career-best 19 TD passes (with six games left) and after throwing for 305 yards and two TDs last week, has six 300-yard games this year (19-9 ratio in '09 / 67.1% / QB rating of 98.9). Houston WR Andre Johnson is "as good as it gets" and had 10 catches for 103 yards against the Colts earlier this month. The Colts are LONG overdue for a slip-up and after back-to-back hard-luck losses, this looks like a great spot for the Texans. Neither team has much of a running game, as the Texans rank 30th in the NFL with 87.4 YPG and the Colts ranking 31st at 85.0 YPG. The first time around the score was 20-17 but that could be this game's halftime score. Note that these teams have averaged 57.2 PPG in their six meetings the previous three season with the lowest game score being 51 points. 8* on Indy/Hou Over.
Atlanta hired head coach Mike Smith and drafted QB Matt Ryan with the third overall pick in 2008 in an attempt to "wipe the slate clean" after the Michael Vick 'nightmare' as well as Bobby Petrino's "cameo appearance" as the team's head coach. Atlanta shocked everyone by going from 4-12 in 2007 to 11-5 and a postseason berth in 2008. The Falcons opened this year 4-1 and a second straight postseason appearance looked likely but Atlanta comes into this game having lost FOUR of its last five games. As for the Bucs, they won the NFC South is 2007 with a 9-7 record and after 12 games of the 2008 season stood at 9-3, However, they suffered a complete 'meltdown,' losing their final four games to miss the playoffs. Gruden was let go and inexperienced Raheem Morris was named head coach. Tampa Bay's poor play has continued in 2009, as the Bucs are just 1-9. The team's lone win came in Week 9 at home against the Packers, as rookie Josh Freeman threw three TDs in his first career start. The Bucs trailed 28-17 into the 4th quarter of that game but Freeman's two TD passes plus a 35-yard interception TD gave Tampa a 38-28 win. However, teams now own some game-film on Freeman and the Saints held him to 126 yards passing last week, while intercepting him three times. The Falcons are in desperate need of a win and the Bucs are "just what the doctor ordered." Ryan started well for Atlanta in 2009 (9 TDs / 4 INTs in the team's 4-1 start) but then had just five TDs and eight INTs as the team lost three of four. Ryan rallied the Falcons from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter of last week's game throwing two TDs in the final 6:01, including an 11-yard pass to Tony Gonzalez with 28 seconds left that sent the game into overtime. However, the Falcons lost the coin toss and the Giants converted a 36-yard FG for the victory. The loss (4th in five games) hurt but Atlanta has to be happy with Ryan's improved play (268 yards with two TDs and zero INTs). RB Turner is expected to miss this game but Jason Snelling has been impressive plus Jerious Norwood is expected back. The Falcons own two strong technical trends in this game, entering this game the Falcons now 8-1 ATS their last nine games after a SU loss plus they are 11-1 SU and 9-3 or 75% ATS at home since Smith and Ryan came to town at the beginning of the 2008 season, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home in 2009. NFL Team Mismatch on the Atl Falcons (9*).
Went against Cutler and the Bears last Sunday night and eked out a win, as both Cutler and the team continued their recent slide. The team's 3-1 start (Cutler had seven TDs and just one INT in the three wins) si now only a distant memory. The Bears agreed to a contract extension with QB Jay Cutler through the 2013 season just a few days after the team had lost 21-14 at Atlanta in Week 6. That loss has sent the Bears on a 1-5 SU and ATS slide. Cutler set a career high with five interceptions, the last coming in the end zone on the game's final play in Chicago's Week 10 Thursday night 10-6 loss at San Francisco. Cutler is the first Bear to have at least four INTs in a game twice in the same season since Billy Wade in 1962. It was Cutler's fourth game with three or more interceptions over the last two seasons, tied with Jake Delhomme for the most in the NFL. As I mentioned last week, I don't want to give Cutler a 'pass' on Chicago's offensive woes this year but the Bears do rank 28th in the NFL with just 89.3 YPG on the ground. Matt Forte rushed for 1,238 yards as a rookie in 2008 but won't come close to that in 2009, as he has been held to 516 yards this season through 10 games. Last week Cutler had to face the blitzing Eagles who love to pressure the QB and force turnovers (Philly's 23 takeaways ranks 2nd to the Saints in the NFC) and this week he must face the Minnesota defense which leads the NFL in sacks (36). The Bears are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road this year, averaging just 14 PPG. Cutler's thrown just seven TDs as oppopsed to 15 INTs in those five away games, posting an awful QB rating of 62.8. Should we expect him to out-duel Brett Favre in this one? Favre's already wrapped up comeback-player-of-the-year and he's now working on a fourth MVP award. Why not? The 40-year-old has single-handedly rejuvenated "the men in purple." He leads the NFL with a QB rating of 112.1 by completing 69.7 percent of his passes with 21 TDs and just three INTs. He's making Sidney Rice (17.5 YPC) look like Jerry Rice and rookie Percy Harvin has given the Vikings an all-purpose talent. The Vikes also feature a pretty fair RB in Adrian Peterson. You may have heard of him. The Bears are a total mess, Cutler has seemingly lost all confidence while one hardly gets the feeling his teammates think much of him either. The Vikes are 5-0 at home averaging 30.4 PPG and should jump out early on the Bears and then turn loose their pass rush on Cutler to complete the rout. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Min Vikings (7.5*).
The last time Matt Leinart and Vince Young met on a football field was in their epic showdown in the 2006 Rose Bowl (BCS title game), when Young rushed for 200 yards and three scores as Texas won 41-38 over Leinart and USC. The Titans would prefer to see Leinart start on Sunday but they are not likely to be that lucky. Kurt Warner is expected to make his 42nd consecutive start. He's dealt with concussion-like symptoms this week after getting his head slammed into the turf on a hit from Rams safety OJ Atogwe in the second quarter of last weekend's game at St Louis. Warner stayed in the game to finish a TD drive but left before the half with the Cards up 21-3. The final was 21-13, as Leinart not only failed to produce any points against the Rams, he couldn't even manage a quality drive. The Cards have surprised everyone this year with their 5-0 road mark but they sure better hope Warner is able to play the entire game. Warner is once again overcoming a putrid rushing attack (Cards averaged 73.6 YPG last year and this year are not much better, averaging 94.1). Leinart does not have the same skills as warner and one wonders, the right attitude. Young had a troubled season LY, while Kerry Collins led the Titans to a 13-3 mark, the best mark in the entire NFL. Collins was back as the starter this year but while Tennessee's 0-6 start was hardly all his fault, during the Titan's Week 7 bye, Fisher was instructed by ownership to give the job back to Young. Young's been very solid, completing 64.4 percent with three TDs and just one INT. He's averaging a modest 155.8 YPG through the air but also has the ability to run (146 yards and one TD in his four starts). If he continues to keep his mistakes to a minimum, Tennessee will be thrilled. Thrilling is one way to describe RB Chris Johnson. He leads the NFL in rushing and during the team's four-game wining streak, has averaged 161.5 YPG (6.2 YPC / 6 TDs). Johnson is the main reason the Titans have averaged 31.3 PPG during their winning streak plus a vastly improved and much healthier defense has also been a key. Tennessee's D was among the best in the NFL last year, allowing the 2nd-fewest points (14.6 PPG) and 293.6 YPG (7th-best). However, with injuries to its 2ndary, Tennessee allowed a ridiculous 304.7 YPG through six games, giving up 19 TD passes with just four INTs. However, with the return to health of a number of key players, Tennessee's allowed just a little over 200 YPG through the air the last four games with six TD passes allowed and seven INTs. After allowing 33.0 PPG through six games, the Titans have allowed just 18.5 PPG in their winning streak. I mentioned earlier that the Cards have surprised almost everyone with their road play. No kidding. Consider this. The Cardinals are 5-0 on the road for the first time since winning all seven of their away games back in 1948 while still based in Chicago. The Titans are off a MNF game in Houston and must travel to Indy next week but after the team's 0-6 start, the Titans are under no pressure at all and 'sandwich' games or "look-ahead" situations are really not applicable. Meanwhile, the Cards are back out on the road for the second straight Sunday (were in st Louis last week), have to be a little concerned about Warner's head plus have a legitimate "look-ahead" situation with Favre and the Vikings coming to Phoenix next week (Vikes won 35-14 at Arizona last year, without Favre). Situational Mismatch on the Ten Titans (8*).
Buzz Williams took over for Tom Crean at Marquette after he left for Indiana and won 25 games last year, However, Crean had left behind a terrific trio of perimeter player in McNeal (19.8-4.5-3.9), Matthews (18.3-5.7) and James (1.0-3.4-5.0). Those players have departed and Williams' challenge this year will be much tougher. However, so far so good! FSU had been left out of the NCAA tourney three years in a row heading into last season but the Seminoles finally got an invite LY, as Toney Douglas (21.5) led the team to 25 wins but FSU lost its first round game. Douglas was the lone player to average better than double digits last year and with him gone, getting another 20-win season in 2009-10 is surely no guarantee, especially playing in the ACC. Like Marquette, FSU is off to a good start. Marquette is 6-0 and off to its best start since the 2006-07 squad won its first eight games. FSU is 5-1, losing only to Florida and after what the Gators did this weekend to No. 2 Michigan St, no one is holding the Seminoles' loss at Gainesville against them. FSU is winning with defense, limiting opponents to 52.8 PPG on 32.2 percent overall shooting while outrebounding foes by 9.3 per game. The 7-1 Alabi (10.2-6.0) starts at center with the 6-9 Singleton (11.3-7.8) and the 6-8 Reid (7.7-6.0) joining him in the frontcourt. JUCO transfer Kitchens (10.3-4.2-3.3) is joined in the backcourt by sophomore Dulkys (9.2) with 6-11 swingman (you read that right) Gibson (8.0-3.5) and freshman guard Snaer (6.2) being the best of the reserves so far. While FSU's start has been solid, I'm really impressed with the Golden Eagles. We knew the 6-6 Hayward (19.7-6.3) was poised for a big season and he's delivered so far but the improved play of 6-6 junior Butler (16.7-7.0) has been a real surprise. Two JUCO All-American guards have eased the loss of LY's great trio, as Johnson-Odom (11.0) and Buycks (8.2-5.5-4.0) have been very good. Two seniors, PG Acker (9.7-3.8 APG) and Cuibillan (7.2-3.7 APG) are both getting more "PT" now that McNeal, Matthews and James "have left the building." The Golden Eagles are averaging 83.5 PPG on 50.3 percent shooting from the floor, including 42.3 percent from three-point range. Defensively, they are limiting foes to 59.5 PPG on 38.9 percent overall shooting, as all six wins have come by double figures. Make that all seven! Tourney Championship Game Showdown on Marquette (8*).
Dave Malinsky
4* BOSTON over MIAMI
We get the benefit of a short price here from both directions, and that means a prime opportunity to step in to a setting in which the Celtics bring significant matchup advantages.The oddsmakers are forced to sell Boston short because of a current 2-9 ATS run, but note that it does not really tell us much about the state of affairs with Doc Rivers and his team – they were favored by at least -6 in every one of those games, and seven of them were in double figures. ATS failures in high-line games may be an issue for them all season, because the focus is merely on winning and moving forward, saving as much energy as possible for games that they hope to be playing in June. Now they are playing for only the third time in seven days, which means plenty of physical energy, and with Ray Allen re-joining them yesterday they will treat this one seriously – this is the lowest spread they have been involved in since opening night, and the challenge they perceive gets their focus at a higher level. They still rate #2 on our best defensive set of ratings, and #6 on offense, and that is despite coasting often with leads as big favorites.Meanwhile Miami is priced as though the 9-6 record is legitimate, but the Heat are a troubled item right now. A current 3-5 SU run has to be studied more deeply, with all three of the wins coming by a single point, including escapes vs. the Nets (ouch) and Hornets, and three of the losses coming in double figures. The problem is an offense that is consistently breaking down because they lack a creator at PG, and Dwayne Wade is finding double-teams to be a matter of course. In five of the last six games he has been held to 42 percent shooting or lower, and his frustrations are starting to show - ``At the end of the day, you take what the defense gives you. You only could force so much.” Now they face the most fundamentally-sound defense in the league, which exacerbates all of those issue, and on one of the first nights this season in which we expect to see the Celtics bring their “A” game they are capable of choking the Miami offense, and getting a win by far more than this short pointspread is calling for.
4* PRINCETON over CALIFORNIA
One of the biggest keys to beating the early-season College Hoops is to understand what the schedule means to the teams involved in the many non-conference affairs. We have a classic example here. For favored Cal this is little more than an afternoon scrimmage, played in front of what will be the sparsest home crowd of the season, with a much bigger target ahead when they go to New Mexico. But for Princeton this one brings much more. Why would an Ivy League team travel this far for a single game There is a real sense of purpose. This trip was set as a reward for two Tiger mainstays, starting SR Marcus Schroeder, from nearby Concord, and JR Dan Mavraides, from San Mateo. This will be the 64th career start for Schroeder, who is averaging 35.2 minutes per game this season, and Mavraides is leading the team in scoring. That makes this not only a special afternoon for them, but for the entire team, since they all pick their game up a bit to play well for their floor leaders in a homecoming setting. And that matters because the Tiger style is ideal when taking this big of a spread. They are going to set an excruciatingly slow tempo on both ends of the court, patiently going deep into the shot clocker before firing (with Schroeder,Mavraides and Douglas Davis having meshed so well in the back-court they bring a lot of savvy in this playbook), and by utilizing a lot of different looks on defense they also force the opposition to play more deliberately.Cal brings no sense of urgency, and will again be without Theo Robertson. The Bears have the talent advantages to get the W easily here, but not the intensity to cover this mountain of a spread vs. a pesky opponent that is going to bring their A game.
Tim Trushel
LA Clippers
Akron
Goldsheet LTS
1.5* Tennessee
1* Houston 1
1* Atlanta
JIM FEIST
5* Mia/Buf UNDER
4* Az/Tenn UNDER
Inner Circle Wsh/Phil UNDER
Inner Circle Jax
Platinum Texans
Platinum KC/SDG OVER