Rated Picks
Minnesota Timberwolves: +15.0 5 units
New Jersey Nets: +14.5 3 units
Long Beach St: +3.5 2 units
Texas A&M: +5.5 2 units
Clemson: -2.0 2units
West Virginia pts: -8.5 2 units
Pittsburgh Steelers: +1 2 units
Seattle Seahawks: -4.0 5 units
Tampa Bay Bucs: +12 2 units
Carolina Panthers: +3.5 3 Units
Seabass
300* Montreal -9
Sports Boss
Miami
San Fran
Houston
Heisman Trophy
10* Hou
10* Car Under
10* Bears
GameDay
3* Atlanta
VegasBuster
Miami -3 IRON PLAY 8*
Arizona +2 IRON PLAY 8*
Philadelphia -9.5 IRON PLAY 8*
Cleveland +13 Silver Play 3*
Best Sport Service
Houston Texans +3
Cincinnati Bengals -12.5
St. Louis Rams +3
San Francisco 49ers -3
UCLA -4
West Virginia -8
Portland State +11.5
Executive
300 Minn Gophers
Sports Unlimited
7* Seattle
5* Jets
4* Arizona
BEN BURNS
*10* #1 Div. Total of '09! (9-1 TOTALS RUN)
I'm playing on San Diego and KC to finish UNDER the total. These teams saw their earlier meeting land right on the closing number, finishing with 44 (37-7 SD) combined points. Along with other important numbers like 37 and 41, that number (44) is quite a common final combined score. This afternoon's rematch has a slightly higher o/u number, one which is above that key number. I believe that provides us with excellent value.
Including the earlier 'push,' the UNDER is a profitable 6-3-1 the last 10 times that these teams faced each other. Four of the last five series meetings here at San Diego have finished below the total. Last year's game here had an o/u line of 47.5 but finished with only 39 points. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 13-6 the last 19 meetings here at San Diego.
The Chargers come off a great defensive effort. In fact, they limited the Broncos to a mere three points. Despite facing the likes of the Giants and Eagles, the Chargers have now held five straight opponents to 23 points or less. Four of those opponents scored 20 points or less. Overall, those five teams averaged just 13.8 points. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 3-1-1 in those games. In five divisional games this season, the Chargers are allowing an average of only 16 points and 269 total yards.
The Chiefs saw their most recent game finish above the total, a surprise 27-24 OT win vs. the World Champion Steelers. Even though the final score did finish above the number and even though they did give up a lot of passing yards, holding the Steelers to 24 points was impressive. In their most recent road game, the Chiefs allowed only 10 points and 271 total yards. They've seen two of their last three road games stay below the total with those opponents averaging just 13.3 points. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 13-7 their last 20 road games. Even including the 44 point game vs. the Chargers, the Chiefs have still seen their three divisional games average only 31 combined points with the UNDER going 2-0-1. While the Chiefs allowed an average of only 280 yards in those games, their offense averaged just 11 points.
The Chargers, currently favored by nearly two have seen the UNDER go 10-5 the last 15 times that they were listed as double-digit favorites. That includes a 3-1 mark the last couple of years and 1-0 mark this season. The Chargers have also seen the UNDER go 7-1 their last eight games played in the month of November. I expect them to deliver another strong defensive effort with the UNDER improving to 5-1 the last six times that they played a home game with a total ranging from 42.5 to 45. *10 Top 2009 AFC West Total
Winning Points
Arizona
San Fran
Carolina
Score
400 Colts
400 Tenn
300 Jets
300 San Diego