Maddux Sports
20* Philadelphia -3
20* Houston +3
10* Atlanta -9
10* Kansas City 1
10* NY Jets -4
10* Dallas +7.5
Gold Medal Club
50* Baltimore
25* Houston
25* Jets
25* Philadelphia
Bobby Maxwell
600-Unit NFL E-Z Winner - Baltimore Ravens
Everybody is talking about Miami’s 4-0 road record as the Dolphins head into Baltimore to take on the Ravens, but what is not explained is that they really struggle in the red zone and have had to settle for 10 FGs the last two weeks and just 2 TDs in a home loss to the Steelers and a road win in Cincinnati. The Ravens and that vaunted defense will do much of the same and force this team to kick FGs, but they have the offense that will score TDs against the Dolphins. Lay the points with Baltimore as they will win this one by at least two TDs.
It was two weeks ago when Baltimore’s defense was shredded by the lowly Bills, but the Ravens managed to make a big play in OT and get a 37-34 win. They allowed 514 yards, the highest total they’ve given up in 10 years. Their bye week showed up at the perfect time and they have shored up the pass defense and have gotten some people healthy.
On offense, QB Joe Flacco has thrown five TDs without an INT in his last two games and when he throws for a TD at home, the Ravens are 11-1. He has a healthy unit of receivers with TE Todd Heap and WRs Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason and Donte Stallworth, who will likely make his season debut today.
This Baltimore defense has dominated the Dolphins in recent years, winning in the 2008 regular season and then knocking them out of the playoffs in the same year, holding Miami to 61.5 yards per game on the ground.
Miami still likes to think of itself as a running team with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, but they are just 16th in the league in rushing at 111.3 yards per game. This team really belongs to QB Chad Henne and his favorite WR Brandon Marshall.
Baltimore will lock down Marshall and get pressure all over Henne, who has proven to make some bad decisions when he’s being pressured.
The Ravens are on ATS surges of 4-1 after a non-cover, 7-2 after a bye week, and 43-19-1 as a home favorite. I’ll lay the points with them today as they are going to completely manhandle the Dolphins and win this one by double-digits.
100-Unit NFL Smart Play - Philadelphia Eagles
These two teams have not met since 2006, and while the Colts have dominated recent history against the Eagles, this is a completely different Philadelphia team and with Michael Vick at QB, the Eagles will make things tough on the Indianapolis defense.
Vick comes in healthy and well rested after sitting out three games and a bye week to get his ribs back to normal after an injury against Washington on Oct. 3. Vick has not thrown an INT this season and has six TDs. He’s also run for 187 yards and his mobility will need to be in full effect today as he has the Indianapolis DEs coming at him and Dwight Freeney taking dead aim at him.
But it’s Vick that is smart enough to not be there when they come and he’ll buy time to let his WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin get downfield and get open. The Eagles have had two weeks off since that 37-19 loss in Tennessee. This team is just 1-2 in front of the home fans, but its last game was quite impressive, beating the Falcons 31-17 as one-point favorites.
Indianapolis outdoors is a tough team to predict. This team seems built for the indoors and they have so many injuries that they are dealing with, there’s just not going to be any consistency on the offensive end. Put this team outdoors this season and they struggled in Washington, pushing with a 27-24 win. At Jacksonville, they fell 31-28 as seven-point road favorites and in Denver they were outgained in every way, but scored a 27-13 win thanks to some key turnovers.
The Colts are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five on grass, 1-3-1 on the road and 1-3-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four after a bye week and 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of up to 3 points.
I’m banking on Vick and the Eagles getting some long passing TDs today as Vick buys time. Go ahead and play Philadelphia in this one.
Matt Fargo
10* NY Jets -4
Bob Balfe
Chargers -3
Falcons -8.5
Jets -5
Browns +5
Chiefs +1
Eagles -3
Cowboys +7.5
ATS Lock Club
7 Units Giants -7
5 Units New England -3.5
5 Units Philly -3
4 Units Baltimore -5
4 Units Lakers -7
Craig Davis
100 Dime Saints
Fairway Jay
20* Eagles
Falcons
Erin Rynning
AFC GOY Texans
James Patrick Sports
Pistons
Dwayne Bryant
Kansas City Chiefs
Tom Freese
15* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK!
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Prediction: New York Jets
Detroit is 2-5 straight up this year. The Lions are 6-19-1 ATS their last 26 November games. Detroit is 2-8 ATS off a straight up win. The Lions are 3-13-1 ATS their last 17 games after allowing less than 80 yards rushing in their last game. Detroit ia 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 games. New York 5-2 straight up this year. The Jets are 8-1 ATS their last 9 road games. New York is 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and they are 9-3 ATS after gaining more than 350 yards in their last game. The Jets are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games.
The Prez
AFC TOY - Dolphins/Ravens Over
Ben Burns
10* Browns
10* Packers Under
10* Falcons
9* Cowboys
8* Seahawks
MTi Sports
NFL SHOCKER OF THE YEAR!
4'* Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are better than they have looked this season and this is a lot of points for the Vikings to be giving when they are banged up at QB and wide receiver and they are suffering a lot of internal strife. We’re taking the points.
Arizona was tied for first in the weak NFC West a couple of weeks ago with a record of 3-2. They lost and failed to cover two straight to drop to 3-4. However, they are just one game back from the Seahawks and they are a 6’-point dog to the Giants this week.
Last week against the Bucs, the Cardinals threw four interceptions – one of which was returned for a TD. Arizona is tied with the Panthers for the league lead in turnovers this season at 3.29 per game. What is relevant here is that Arizona is 8-0 ATS after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers vs a non-divisional opponent, covering by an average of 11.9 ppg. Also, the Cards are 9-0 ATS as a TD+ dog when they lost and failed to cover each of their last two games. It seems that the Cardinals come up with a big performance when they have looked bad recently. They have the right opponent to pull off an upset.
Minnesota is reeling and they have demonstrated no ability to turn around a recent downward trend in performance. The Vikings are 0-8 ATS (-12.2 ppg) as a 7+ favorite when their ATS margin decreased over each of their past two games.
Minnesota had only ten possessions for the game and this has been a negative indicator. The league as a whole is 26-57-4 ATS over the years as a home favorite when they are off a loss as a road dog in which they had 10 or fewer possessions. The Viking have contributed significantly to this record, as they are 0-6 ATS as a favorite after a game in which they had ten or fewer drives.
The Vikings’ normally brutal run defense and pass rush has looked old and disinterested. Brad Childress is hanging on by a thread and he is not the kind of coach his players will rally around. If the Cardinals don’t commit too many turnovers here, they have an excellent chance to win.
4* New York Jets
The Lions did something very unusual last week. They punted NINE times and they scored 37 points. They are 2-1 their last three and they’re getting too much respect from the linesmakers. We’ll lay the four points. The Jets’ offense had a performance that was well below expectations last week. They scored zero points and they made it into the red zone only once -- and missed a field goal wide right. They failed on ten third-down conversions and they were 0-3 on fourth down.
Rex Ryan should have his team ready here. The NY Jets are 8-0 ATS after a home game in which they never had a first and goal, covering by an average of 11.4 ppg. Even better, they are 6-0 ATS on the road after a loss in which they failed on at least ten third downs attempts, covering the spread by an average of a whopping 17.0 ppg. In their last two games in this situation, they beat the Raiders 38-0 laying six points and beat the Colts 29-15 getting 4 in Indianapolis.
The Jets’ defense held the Packers to 2-of-14 on their third down conversions and this is yet another positive indicator for NY. Recently, the Jets are 5-0 ATS on the road after a game in which they stopped their opponent on at least ten third down attempts, covering by an average of 17.0 ppg.
The Lions are off a big win over the Redskins at home. However, there are numerous negative indicators for the Lions when they are off a good performance. Detroit is 0-11 ATS (-15.6 ppg) since 2002 after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.
Finally, the Lions are 0-11 ATS when they are off a win over a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half and were not shut out in the fourth quarter.
The Jets should take care of business here.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY Jets 28 DETROIT 20
4* Carolina Panthers
The 5-3 Saints are off a big win over the Steelers. Pittsburgh is a very tough opponent and NFL teams that have beaten them do not do well the following week. In fact, NFL teams are a combined 13-32-1 ATS after beating the Steelers. We also have a league-wide system working here. It turns out that NFL teams are a combined 0-9-1 ATS (-10.1 ppg) as a road favorite after a double-digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter. The Saints qualify here.
The fact that the Saints are a significant road favorite vs a team that they have already beaten this season, will have them vulnerable.
New Orleans has been very soft in similar spots in the past. The Saints are 0-9 ATS (-7.6 ppg) versus any team with fewer wins after any home game. Also, New Orleans is 0-7 ATS as a favorite by more than a field goal over a divisional opponent when they faced non-divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks – including 0-1 ATS so far THIS season.
Carolina has performed much better than expected in revenge games. The Panthers are 10-0-1 ATS (+9.6 ppg) when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up. Their only SU loss was in overtime getting 3 vs the Falcons in 2004. Since then they have won each of the last seven games straight up, three as an underdog.
Carolina had a lot of trouble rushing the ball last week against the Rams, managing only 25 yards rushing on 17 carries. DeAngelo Williams was out and he will likely be out again here. However, the Panthers are a solid 7-0 ATS when they rushed for at least 50 yards fewer last week than their season-to-date average, covering by an average of 10.6 ppg.
New Orleans has had a lot of trouble putting together two solid games. In their last seven, they have alternated wins and losses and they won last week. Also, the ONLY game they covered this season, was a 31-6 road win over the Bucs and they week after that game they lost 30-17 as a 13-point home favorite to the Browns.
Carolina has averaged 3.29 turnovers per game this season – tops in the league. This has made them look worse than they actually are. With an opponent that has shown a tendency to be lackadaisical in this situation, we’ll grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: CAROLINA 20 New Orleans 17
4* Miami Dolphins
The Ravens are off two overtime games before their bye week, losing to the Pats 23-20 and then beating the Bills 37-34. Baltimore had a lot off offense in their last game, but they still couldn’t get the cover. The Ravens are 0-12 ATS when they are off an ATS loss in which they had at least 20 first downs, failing to cover by an average of 8.9 ppg.
The Dolphins are 4-0 SU this year on the road and 0-3 at home. Miami is the Road Warrior of the 2010 NFL season and they are getting a lot of points here. The Dolphins have always been tough when they are a dog off a win, going a perfect 10-0 ATS in the role of road underdog when they are off any straight up win.
Miami has no problem playing their second road game in as many weeks, as they are 7-0 ATS as a road dog the week after an away game, covering by an average of 12.1 ppg. They are 1-0 in this spot this season, beating Minnesota 14-10 in week 2 after opening the season in Buffalo. The Dolphins play in a much tougher division than the Ravens and have faced tougher opposition – and they should have beaten Pittsburgh at home. This team is getting no respect here.
Continuing, we find that the Dolphins are 8-0 ATS as a dog after they stopped their opponent on at least 10 third downs attempts, 7-0 ATS as a dog after a win in which they made more field goals than touchdowns and, finally, a very nice 9-0 ATS as a DOG the week after a win in which they were losing at the half, covering by an average of 13.1 ppg and winning eight of the nine straight up.
We think we’re getting the better team here and we are confident that we’ll get an honest effort from Miami. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: Miami 23 BALTIMORE 20
Marc Lawrence
Most Valuable GOW - New York Jets
In the NFL, the height of red-faced humiliation is being favored and failing to score a single point. And as a result of last weeks mortifying loss to the Packers, brash head coach Rex Ryan's ego has drooped to an all-time level of lowness. The good news for them is they catch a bad team off a satisfying win, one they figure to run right into the ground, literally. That confirmed by the Jets +1.4 team net YPR (offensive yards per rush minus its defensive yards per rush) as opposed to the Lions -1.7 team net YPR. That equates to over 3 net yards per rushing attempt in the Flyboys favor. Well also take in the fact that the Lions lose their roar as single-digit dogs when facing a .666 or greater opponent, going 0-7 ATS by an average losing margin of nearly 17 PPG. The clincher though is this Perfect System Club angle from our powerful database. It tells us to: Play On any NFL non division road team off a shutout loss in its last game in which it lost by 5 or more points ATS if they have won 10 or more of its previous 32 games straight up and are facing a .428 or less opponent off a win or loss of 21 or less points in its last game. That's because these teams are 17-0 ATS in this role since 1980. With the Jets currently 10-4 SU and ATS away from home under Ryan, including 7-1 SU and ATS against sub .666 opponents, we'll lay the points. We recommend a 4-unit play on the NY Jets
Late Afternoon NFL Power Blowout - New York Giants
There is a time during the regular season when a week of rest actually helps, not hurts, a team riding a win streak. And that situation applies to the Giants this week. That's because favorites off a Bye Week that have won each of their last four games are now 26-6 ATS when facing an opponent that did not win its previous game straight up as an underdog. It doesn't hurt that the G-Men are 9-2 ATS against the NFC West, or that head coach Tom Coughlin is 21-5 ATS in his NFL career on non-division games off a division victory. Toss in Seattle's super-soft 1-6 ATS mark as a host against the NFC East and we'll assuredly back the team winning its games by 125 net YPG versus the one losing its games by 93 net YPG. Look for the team currently playing the best ball in the NFL to continue its winning ways today. We recommend a 3-unit play on the NY Giants.
Jeff Benton
50 Dime Browns
15 Dime Browns ML
For starters, this is THE best situational play of the week. You’ve got the Browns coming out of their bye week, which came at an absolute perfect time with Cleveland coming off a stunning 30-17 victory at the Saints as a 12-point underdog (so the Browns have had plenty of time to “come down” from that victory).
Meanwhile, the Patriots are in a classic flat spot. They’ve won five straight games (despite getting outgained in three of them), and they’re coming off a three-week stretch in which they played a phyaical overtime home game against the Ravens (23-20 win), flew all the way to the West Coast and escaped with a 23-20 win over the mistake-prone Chargers (San Diego out-yarded New England 363-179 but committed four turnovers that led to most of the Pats’ points), then went all the way back home to face the Vikings last week (28-18 win despite getting outgained 410-362, with a gimpy Brett Favre completing 22 of 32 passes for 259 yards before leaving with a head injury).
Even though New England has won two of its three road games (beating the Chargers and Dolphins while losing at the Jets), they’ve done it with mirrors. Tom Brady and the normally explosive offense have generated just 245 total yards per game on the higlhway, including 74 rushing yards per game, while the defense has surrendered 366.3 yards per game (277.7 through the air). How did New England win those two roadies? Turnovers and special teams gaffes by their opponents. Well, Cleveland is above-average on special teams, and its two healthy quarterbacks (Seneca Wallace and rookie Colt McCoy) have thrown just three interceptions in the five games they’ve started this year.
Yes, the Browns have been outgained in six straight contests, but with the exception of a 28-10 loss at Pittsburgh in McCoy’s first career start (and it was 21-10 with 90 seconds to play), Cleveland has been in every game this season. In addition to the win at the Saints, the Browns beat the Bengals 23-20; they suffered narrow losses to the Bucs (17-14) and Chiefs (16-14) in the first two weeks; they went to Baltimore and led the Ravens 17-10 in the fourth quarter before losing 24-17 (as a 12-point ‘dog); and they fell 20-10 to the Falcons at home (Atlanta scored the game’s final 14 points on a 45-yard TD pass and an amazing 31-yard interception return for a touchdown by a defensive lineman).
Also, while the Browns’ offense has struggled most of the year, they’ve also run up against some very good defenses this season (Kansas City, Baltimore, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and New Orleans all rank in the top 10 in points allowed, and all but the Falcons are in the top half of the league in yards allowed). The Patriots D gives up 384 total yards per game (only the Bills, Jags, Redskins and Texans are worse), and they’re 21st in points allowed (22 ppg).
Translation: New England is not as good as its record, and has simply benrfited from catching a ton of breaks. At the same time, the Browns aren’t nearly as bad as their record indicates (they’re five points away from being 4-3 and had a legit chance to win six of their seven games). Today, I say the breaks start to even out for both squads.
Two other things to point out: 1) The Patriots have alternated home and road games all season to this point, and even though these guys are professionals, eventually that type of schedule wears on players and manifests itself in careless mistakes; and 2) The Browns have made their supporters a lot of money recently, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the AFC and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
Bottom line here: New England is 7-1, has won six in a row (3-0-1 ATS in the last four) and has a Hall of Fame QB named Tom Brady. Cleveland is 2-5, has been outgained in six straight contests and is being quarterbacked by a rookie who is making his third career start. And yet the Patriots are barely favored here. That, my friends, is a gigantic red flag. And given the success road underdogs have had in the NFL this season, I’m backing the Browns not only plus the points, but to score the outright upset!
Cleveland 24, New England 21
James Patrick Sports
5* Falcons
3* Bills
3* Jets
3* Browns
3* Chiefs
3* Pistons