DOC'S SPORTS
5 Unit Play. Take Baltimore -3 over Cincinnati Top Game of the Week.
The Ravens appeared to get well last week as they dominated the previously unbeaten Broncos en route to a 30-7 victory. QB Joe Flacco just continues to get better in his second season under center and has already thrown 12 touchdowns on the season. The Ravens need this win since they already lost to the Bengals in Baltimore earlier this season. The Bengals are coming off of a bye but that has spelled trouble for them in recent years, as they are just 2-6 ATS in their next game following a bye the last eight years. The Bengals are a team that never seems to handle prosperity and expect another setback on Sunday, as the Ravens tie them in the AFC North standings. Baltimore 27 Cincinati 14.
4 Unit Play. Take Under 41½ in Washington @ Atlanta
The Redskins are coming off a much-needed bye week but I highly doubt that their offense will be able to turn it around when they travel to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Sunday. The Falcons need to win this game but will enter off a short week after a tough loss to the Saints last Monday night. The Falcons will likely just go through the motions on Sunday since they have two road games the next two weeks. Assuming turnovers and special teams do not play a major role in this contest, we expect an easy winner with the under. ATL 24, Washington 13.
4 Unit Play. Take Houston +9 over Indianapolis
The Colts came back to earth last week when they struggled to put away the 49ers and now they must face a much better team in the Houston Texans. Houston will be without TE Owen Daniels but QB Matt Schaub is playing outstanding with 16 touchdowns this season against only 7 interceptions. The Colts have a strong defensive rating but I am still not sold on them and expect Houston to have success running the football. The Texas will have to play a bend-but-do-not-break defense against QB Manning and since this is a divisional match-up, I expect them to keep it close. Take the points and watch your money grow. Indianapolis 27, Houston 21.
4 Unit Play. Take Pittsburgh -3 over Denver
The most competitive game on paper takes place Monday night in Denver. The Broncos suffered their first loss of the season last week against Baltimore and I expect them to struggle again playing another hard-hitting defense. QB Kyle Orton cannot be productive for an entire 16-week season and expect the Steelers to blitz him early and often. The Steelers have won four straight games and had last week off to get some players healthy. This includes Troy Polamalu, who is listed as probable. He is the foundation of their defense and if he plays, expect the Steelers to win this game by double digits. Denver hasn’t played that well at Mile High Stadium and went just 4-4 there in 2008. The Steelers go to the top of the AFC North and we collect big in the process as well. Pittsburgh 27, Denver 13.
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket: Baltimore -3
Arizona +3
New England -10.5
Philadelphia -3
Pointwise Phone Service
3* ARIZONA, NEW ENGLAND, DENVER
2* GREEN BAY, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, SAN FRAN
Dr. Bob
2 Star Selection
**Washington 19 ATLANTA (-10.0) 21
Washington is a better team than what is evident by their scores, as the Redskins have out-gained their opponents 5.2 yards per play to 4.7 yppl yet have been out-scored by an average score of 13.7 to 17.6 points. Being -8 in turnover margin is one of the problems and difficulty scoring in the red zone is the other major component that has kept Washington from being as good on the scoreboard as they've been the stats sheet. The turnovers are just random given that quarterback Jason Campbell has a very low career interception percentage of 2.2% and a good pass defense like Washington is likely to pick off more than just 1.5% of opponent's passes going forward. The play calling in the red zone will get better with Sherman Lewis now calling plays and the bye week will also help in regards to analyzing the problem and fixing it.
Bad teams generally perform very well after a bye week, as teams with a win percentage of less than .300 (after 3 or more games) are 69-35 ATS as an underdog or pick following their bye week. Also, underdogs of more than 6 points are 28-7 ATS after a bye if they are on a 3 game or more losing streak. So, I expect Washington to come out of their bye week with renewed enthusiasm and a better offensive game plan that should be too hard to execute against sub-par Atlanta defense that has given up 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. Washington's offense has been hurt by the injury to LT Chris Samuels, as the Redskins have given up 14 sacks in 3 games without him, and I rate the Skins at 0.6 yppl worse than average with their current personnel. Even without Samuels the Redksins are only at a 0.3 yppl disadvantage against the Falcons' defense.
Atlanta's attack rates at 0.4 yppl better than average and that unit only has a slight 0.1 yppl advantage over a solid Washington defense that's given up just 4.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team. Taking 10 points with a good defensive team that should have decent success moving the ball is usually a recipe for success and my math model favors Atlanta by just 6 1/2 points assuming the Redskins can score at normal efficiency inside the red zone. My other model, which takes red zone efficiencies into account, favors Atlanta by only 8 1/2 points, so there is line value favoring the Redskins no matter which model I use.
The reason for this play, however, is a very negative 9-56-1 ATS subset of a 67-143-4 ATS situation that is partially based on Atlanta's loss last week and their bad defense. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS after a loss in two years under coach Smith, but that's not much of a trend and they were lucky to cover last week (thanks to an untimely injury that stopped the clock and a fumble that followed while New Orleans was trying to run out the clock). I'll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more.
2 Star Selection
*DENVER (+3 at -120 odds) 21 Pittsburgh 16
I've won twice with Denver as 3-Star Best Bets this season, at home against New England and at San Diego, but I passed on the underrated Broncos last week because the situation was against them (although I still made them a strong opinion). I was sort of glad that Denver lost last week at Baltimore because it assured that the Broncos would remain an underrated team. That blowout loss sets up Denver in a 48-18-3 ATS home bounce-back situation that plays on mediocre or good teams after a loss of 20 points or more. I certainly don't expect Denver to play poorly at home, where visiting teams have so much trouble with the thin air at high altitude. Good teams have regularly been beaten at Mile High, including Dallas and New England as favorites this year. Denver is particularly good at home when they are considered the inferior team (i.e. favored by 2 or less or getting points). The Broncos are an incredible 33-7-2 ATS at home as a favorite of 2 or less, a pick, or an underdog since 1981 and that trend has worked for every coach that's been here. The Broncos are 19-1-1 ATS in their last 21 home games from -2 to dog, including the 2 wins this season. Pittsburgh's injured riddled defensive line rotation will have players gasping for air, as you need a deep rotation of defensive linemen in order to survive the high altitude and that is something that Pittsburgh does not have with DE Aaron Smith's backup Travis Kirschke now also out with an injury.
Not only does Denver have a great history at home against good teams but the Broncos are just as good as Pittsburgh and should be a 3 point favorite in this game. Let's take a look at the numbers. Pittsburgh has averaged 6.3 yards per play on offense against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I rate the Steelers' attack at 1.0 yppl better than average with Rashard Mendenhall as the main ball carrier. Denver's defense is actually slightly better than Pittsburgh's offense, as the Broncos have allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, which makes that unit 1.1 yppl better than average. Denver actually played just as well as normal on defense in their 7-30 loss last week, allowing just 4.8 yppl to a Baltimore offense that would average 5.9 yppl at home against an average team. They just didn't force any turnovers for the first time all season and the offense set them up in bad field position.
Denver's offense did play poorly last week (3.5 yppl) and the offense now rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Pittsburgh's defense is good, but not great this season, as the Steeler rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team.
Pittsburgh does have a 0.4 yppl advantage over Denver's offense and an overall advantage of 0.3 yppl over the Broncos, but Denver has a 2.5 points edge in projected turnovers with quarterback Kyle Orton still without a meaningful interception this season (his lone pick was on a Hail Mary at the end of the half against New England). Both teams are bad in special teams and my math model favors Denver by 3 points overall.
In addition to Denver's great history at home in this price range, the Broncos also apply to a 48-18-3 ATS Monday night home team angle while Pittsburgh's long tradition of failure as a road favorite the week after a victory (23-42-3 ATS since 1980) has continued under coach Mike Tomlin (1-8 ATS). I'll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 at -115 or better.
Strong Opinion
NY GIANTS (-4.5) 28 San Diego 18
New York has proven that they can dominate bad teams with dominating wins over Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland, but the Giants have not proven that they can beat a good team, as 3 consecutive losses to New Orleans, Arizona, and Philly attest. Thankfully, the Chargers are in the same category, with their wins coming against losing teams Oakland (twice), Miami, and Kansas City while going 0-3 against good teams Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Denver. My main math model favors New York by 3 1/2 points and my other model favors the Giants by 6 1/2 points, so a line of 4 1/2 points seems about right. The reason for liking the Giants is a very strong 63-16-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors New York and a 37-93-6 ATS angle that applies to San Diego. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion based on the technical analysis.
Strong Opinion UNDER
UNDER (43) - SEATTLE (-10.0) 23 Detroit 14
My math model favors Seattle by 12 points in this game even though Detroit's offense gets a boost with star WR Calvin Johnson coming back. The 40 passes intended for Johnson have gained 325 yards for an average of 8.1 yards per attempt. The other 3 wide receivers on the Lions have combined to average just 5.3 ypa on 84 passes thrown to them, so having Johnson back should make things easier for rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Lions are still 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average in the 4 full games that Johnson has played, compared to -2.1 yppp in 3 games without him, so I don't expect the Lions to do much damage through the air against an underrated Seahawks' pass defense that has been 0.6 yppp better than average in 5 games with top CB Josh Wilson playing, which is 0.4 yppp better than their season rating. Seattle's run defense is also better than their 4.3 ypr against average suggests, as they allowed 159 yards on two runs up the middle by San Francisco's Frank Gore when nose tackle Brandon Mebane was injured in week 2. In 6 games with Mebane the Seahawks have allowed just 3.4 ypr against a slate of better than average running teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense. My math model calls for Detroit's sub-par rushing attack to gain just 69 rushing yards at 2.8 ypr in this game and for the Lions' offense to accumulate only 247 total yards at 4.0 yards per play.
Detroit has given up 6.3 yppl and 29 points per game this season while rating at 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively. However, Seattle has averaged only 4.7 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, so the Seahawks' offense is nearly as bad as Detroit's defense.
With just mediocre production expected from Seattle and very little offense expected from Detroit there appears to be good value on the under since the Over/Under on this game is 43 points, which is right at the league median of 43 total points. Even if Seattle's defense weren't better than their season stats suggest the total on this game should still only be 40 1/2 points, so I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 41 points or higher.
INDIAN COWBOY
6 Unit Play. NFL First Half Game of the Year. Baltimore Ravens -3 over the Cincinatti Bengals
Certainly the Ravens have a great deal of revenge from their first loss to this team 14-17 at home. It was a drive put together by the Bengals in their last possession as they stunned Baltimore for their first loss of the year. The Ravens do have three losses on the year. But, in their defense, the three losses come from a combined total of 11 points. I like the Ravens here to get their revenge as they come off a big win over the Broncos at home. This team understands that they are 4-3 and do not have a grapple on the playoffs yet by any means after their hot preseason and regular season start which found them winning their first seven contests of the year - including the preseason. I like Coach H to get his players fired up for a nice revenge game here as this is a contest that Baltimore could win by double-digits as they likely do not let off the pedal. Remember, the Bengals did lose to the Texans at home and they come off a big win over the Bears as they are in for a likely let down Sunday after such a big win. These are the same Ravens that went on the road to defeat the Chargers, and the same Ravens that had the goods to nearly defeat a team in the Vikings if their kicker did not miss the field goal in question. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as as favorite and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
4 Unit Play. Take the Houston Texans +9 over the Indianapolis Colts.
I'm not the one to go against the Colts, but this is a division game. And, these Texans are for real. This team went on the road to defeat the Bengals and crushed Buffalo 31-10 on the highway as well. This team is very familiar with the Colts and lost by 6 points on the road last year. This year's team is even better. I like the nine points here as the Texans would love to give the Colts their first loss on the year. More importantly, the playoffs are in reach for the Texans this year. This team is 5-3 and certainly capable of having the offense to put up some points on the board. They learned a great deal from the Niners who nearly defeated the Colts and will likely have a similar game plan here. I like the Texans plus the points in this division rivalry game as they are tired of being the doormat to this team in this particular division. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an Underdog and the Colts are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite by this margin.
4 Unit Play. Take the Carolina Panthers +13.5 over the New Orleans Saints
A lot of points here in a division game. Carolina showed a lot of heart at Arizona winning 34-21 as a ten point underdog. Remember, this team also defeated Tampa Bay in a division game and only lost to the Falcons by eight points on the road. Certainly if the Falcons can hang tough in New Orleans with a 10 point spread more or less, why not Carolina on a 13.5 spread. Carolina has come around lately as they have three wins on the year. Frankly, I think they get up for this game similar to the Arizona game as Fox has this team moving in the right direction since the second half of the Washington game when they were losing outright at home. Remember, Arizona runs a similar offensive set such as New Orleans and there is no reason to think that these Carolina defensive backs can't hang tough here as Carolina puts up their fair share of points just like they did against Arizona. Saints are 4-11-1 when they face a team with a losing overall record at home.
SIXTH SENSE
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
BEST BETS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
YTD 27-20 +15.00%
3% WASHINGTON +9.5
3% DENVER +3
3% BALTIMORE/CINCINNATI OVER 44
3% SAN DIEGO/NY GIANTS OVER 47.5
3% DALLAS/PHILADELPHIA OVER 49
JACKSONVILLE -6.5 Kansas City 41.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Jacksonville lost at Tennessee last week 30-13 and their only scores came on 80 and 79 yard touchdown runs by Jones-Drew. They averaged 6.7yppl to 6.4yppl for Tennessee but without the two long runs, they averaged just 3.6yppl. Tennessee also had two long runs but they still averaged 4.4yppl without those runs. KC is off their bye week and a blowout loss 37-7 at home to SD. Jacksonville averages 5.4ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl overall on offense. On defense they allow 7.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. KC’s offense has been horrendous, averaging just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr and 4.4yps against 5.9yps for a total of 4.0yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense allows 7.3yps against 6.5yps and 6.0yppl against 5.6yppl. KC qualifies in a general situation, which is 52-23-1, while Jacksonville qualifies in a negative 79-35-2 situation based on their poor defensive play last week. Jacksonville also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 549-416-30. Numbers favor Jacksonville by 7.5 points and predict about 43 points. KC has allowed 38 and 34 points on the road against better than average offenses this year, while Jacksonville scored 23 against the one bad defense they faced at home. Jacksonville allowed 20 points to the one poor offense they faced at home this year, while KC scored 24 points on the road against the one poor defense they faced (Baltimore). While they scored 24 in that game, they were dominated and scored two touchdowns on turnovers, etc. I’ll side with the better rushing team but respect the situations on the dog enough to stay off this game. JACKSONVILLE 30 KANSAS CITY 20
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Baltimore -3 CINCINNATI 44
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Baltimore looking for revenge from an earlier home loss to Cincinnati. The Ravens dominated Denver in their 30-7 win last week. They passed for 6.2yps and averaged 4.7yppl to just 3.4yppl for Denver. Cincinnati comes off their blowout win over Chicago before their bye, 45-10. Baltimore averages 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr and 6.7yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been solid against the rush, allowing just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but did allow Cedric Benson to rush for over 100 yards in their first meeting. They allow 6.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl overall to make them a below average defense. Cincinnati averages 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr and 6.4yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 458-299-21. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 1.5 points and predict about 49 points. Both teams should get into the 20’s in this game and if that happens this game will most likely go over the total. Baltimore has scored 31 points in each of their two road games against below average defenses, while Cincinnati has allowed 28 and 20 points at home to above average offenses. I’ll lean towards Baltimore because of the situation but the better play here is the over. BALTIMORE 28 CINCINNATI 24
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
INDIANAPOLIS -9 Houston 48.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Colts came up short versus the spread last week at home against SF, winning 18-14 but only out gaining the 49ers 5.6yppl to 5.5yppl. SF out rushed Indy 6.3ypr to 2.9ypr but 64 yards came on a Frank Gore touchdown run. Houston went into Buffalo and won easily, 31-10 as they out passed the Bills 7.0yps to 4.3yps. They did rush for 4.7ypr but also allowed Buffalo to rush for 4.9ypr. Overall, they out gained the Bills 5.8yppl to 4.5yppl. Houston does not run the ball well, averaging just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr but they are averaging 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 6.5yps against 5.5yps and 5.7yppl against 5.0yppl. Indy also doesn’t run the ball well, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.0ypr but they do average 8.2yps against 6.7yps and 6.5yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 4.6yps against 5.4yps and 4.6yppl against 5.0yppl. Indy’s defense has started to show a few cracks the last few weeks, giving up a lot of rushing yards to the Rams and some passing yards to the 49ers. Indy will be without three starters in their secondary this week and two of them for the season. Houston did lose Owen Daniels last week and that will hurt their passing attack. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Indy by 14.5 and predict about 47 points. This series has seen these two teams combine for at least 48 points in each of the last six games played here and five of those six have seen at least 51 points scored. I’ll lean with Houston, despite the value to Indy because of all the injuries in the secondary and lean towards the over as well. INDIANAPOLIS 31 HOUSTON 24
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
ATLANTA -9.5 Washington 41
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Atlanta comes in off their Monday night loss at New Orleans. Atlanta rushed for 6.7ypr and held a good Saints rushing offense to just 4.2ypr. They passed for 6.2yps but allowed the Saints 8.3yps and out gained the Saints 6.4yppl to 6.2yppl. Washington comes off their bye week, where they lost to Philadelphia 27-17 before the bye. Atlanta is still below average rushing the ball this year at 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr but they have improved the last few weeks. They average 6.6yps against 5.9yps and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense, they are allowing 6.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. The Redskins have not been good on offense this year, averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.8yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has played well, allowing just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr and 4.6yppl against 4.9yppl. Washington qualifies in my turnover table, which is 403-257-22. Numbers favor Atlanta by 12 before the situation and predict about 31 points. The Redskins haven’t scored more than 17 points this year but also haven’t allowed more than 27 points. This is a lot of points for a below average defense to be laying against a good defensive team. Washington needs to find a way to score if they are to cover and I think they will be able to do that with a week of rest. ATLANTA 17 WASHINGTON 14
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Green Bay -9.5 TAMPA BAY 43.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pack comes off a disappointing loss at home to Minnesota. GB out rushed Minnesota (thanks to Aaron Rodgers running) 4.7ypr to 3.5ypr but they allowed Minnesota to throw for 8.7yps and only averaged 5.4yps themselves, thanks to six more sacks. Overall they were out gained 5.9yppl to 5.2yppl. TB comes in off their bye week after getting blown out in London against the Patriots. GB averages 7.0yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl overall. They allow just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr but 5.9yps against 5.7yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. TB averages just 4.8yps against 5.4yps and 4.6yppl against 5.0yppl and will start rookie qb Josh Freeman in this game. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr, 7.8yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. TB qualifies in a couple of winless situations, which are 87-39-6 and 22-3-1. Both those situations have been winners so far this year. They also qualify in my turnover table, which is 403-257-22. Numbers favor GB by 11.5 points before the situations and predict about 46 points. I would like to take TB because of the situations and GB could be a little flat after last weeks loss. But, GB has a lot of talent and when they play teams like TB, their talent shines and they have destroyed these types of teams this year, winning by 19, 26 and 28 against the Rams, Detroit and Cleveland. Combine that with a rookie qb and it makes it difficult for me to take TB. I will lean their way but nothing more. GREEN BAY 24 TAMPA BAY 17
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
CHICAGO -3 Arizona 43.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Arizona was upset at home against Carolina last week 34-21. They turned the ball over six times to none for Carolina. They allowed Carolina to rush for 270 yards at 6.1ypr but did average 5.5ypr themselves. They also held Carolina to just 85 yards passing but 5.3yps as Carolina only attempted 16 passes. They only averaged 4.7ypr against Carolina and were out gained 5.9yppl to 4.9yppl. So, it wasn’t just the turnovers that did them in. They were beaten soundly by Carolina. Chicago wasn’t tested as they blew out Cleveland and out gained them 5.2yppl to 3.8yppl. Arizona averages just 3.3ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl, making them just average on offense. The defense allows just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr but also just 6.3yps against 6.5yps and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. The Bears also don’t run the ball well, averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. The Bears qualify in a couple of momentum situations, which are 31-8-0 and 81-38-7 but Arizona also qualifies in my turnover table, which is 403-257-22. Numbers favor Chicago by one point and predict about 44 points. Arizona has shown more for me this year against the better competition and I will lean their way getting points in this game. ARIZONA 24 CHICAGO 23
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
NEW ENGLAND -10.5 Miami 46.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
NE comes in off their bye week after blowing out TB 35-7 before the bye. That win followed their 59-0 blow out of Tennessee. Miami comes in off their upset of the Jets, 30-25, in which they were out gained 3.2ypr to 2.3ypr, 6.8yps to 1.9yps and 4.9yppl to 2.0yppl. Miami gained just 104 yards on offense, while allowing the Jets to gain 378 yards. Two kick off returns for touchdowns and a fumble recovery for a touchdown, along with a 15 yard drive allowed Miami to score 24 of their 30 points. Miami averages 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr but just 4.8yps against 5.3yps and 4.6yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow just 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr but 7.1yps against 6.7yps and 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl. NE averages 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.4yps against 5.8yps and 4.5ypr against 4.5ypr for a total of 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. NE qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 110-38-3 and plays against them here. Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 154-77-7. Numbers favor NE by 10.5 before the situations and predict about 50 points. Surprisingly Miami has scored at least 30 points in four straight games. Too many injuries on the Miami side for me to make them a best bet. I will just lean their way. Miami has kept most of these games in NE close over the last 15 years or so. NEW ENGLAND 28 MIAMI 21
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
NEW ORLEANS -13 Carolina 51.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Carolina upset Arizona last week thanks to six Cardinal turnovers. Carolina also rushed the ball for 270 yards at 6.1ypr but allowed 5.5ypr as well. They only threw the ball 16 times for 85 yards at 5.3yps but held Arizona to just 4.7yps. While they took advantage of the six Cardinal turnovers, Carolina did out gain Arizona 5.9yppl to 4.9yppl. NO escaped with a win but non cover over Atlanta as they were out gained 6.4yppl to 6.2yppl, partly because Atlanta threw the ball 10 more times than NO. NO was out rushed by Atlanta 6.7ypr to 4.2ypr but out passed Atlanta, 8.3yps to 6.2yps. Carolina averages 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.3yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. NO averages 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr and 7.9yps against 5.9yps for a total of 6.3yppl against 5.2yppl. There are some signs of cracks in the defense, as they are now just an average defense, which allows 4.5ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.5yps against 5.8yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. The loss of Sedrick Ellis and Scott Fujita may be part of those cracks in the defense. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NO by 18.5 and predict about 60 points. I would consider the over in this game but both teams like to run the ball and Carolina plays good pass defense and has struggled to throw the ball this year. That could either lead to them controlling the clock, which would prevent NO from scoring too much or not being able to score themselves because of their poor passing attack. Carolina has won seven straight on the road against NO with a loss eight years ago by just four points. The line may be finally catching up with NO a little bit. I’ll lean towards Carolina and the over. NEW ORLEANS 30 CAROLINA 24
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
SEATTLE -10 Detroit 42
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Detroit most likely gets back Calvin Johnson this week. They lost at home to the lowly Rams last week, 17-10 and were out gained badly in that game. They were out rushed 5.8ypr to 3.8ypr, out passed 5.9yps to 4.6yps and out gained overall 5.8yppl to 4.3yppl. Seattle was blown out at Dallas, 38-17. They were out gained in that game 5.4yppl to 4.8yppl. Detroit averages just 4.9yps against 5.9yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.1yps against 6.6yps and 6.2yppl against 5.6yppl. Seattle has struggled on offense this year, as they average just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.5yps against 6.1yps for a total of 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has been pretty good. They allow just 5.3yppl against 5.6yppl. Seattle qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is 91-44-4 and plays against them there. They also qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 120-51-8. That situation is very strong that plays against Seattle in this game. Numbers favor Seattle by 14 points before the situations and predict about 42 points. I’ll lean towards the dog because of the situations but Seattle has rolled over the other two teams they have played at home this year that are comparable to Detroit. They defeated the Rams 28-0 and Jacksonville 41-0. SEATTLE 27 DETROIT 17
SAN FRANCISCO -4 Tennessee 41
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
SF played Indianapolis tough last week but moral victories are not part of Mike Singletary’s vocabulary. They were out gained by Indy 5.6yppl to 5.5yppl and out rushed Indy 6.3ypr to 2.9ypr. They did accumulate 64 of their 113 rushing yards on one play. They did average 5.1yps, which is a nice improvement for their passing game. They allowed a good Indy passing offense to throw for 6.7yps, which is well below the 8.2yps Indy currently averages. They also sacked Peyton Manning three times. Tennessee finally got in the win column with a 30-13 win over Jacksonville. While they were out gained 6.7yppl to 6.4yppl 159 of the 330 yards Jacksonville gained came on two touchdown runs. Without those runs, Jacksonville averaged just 3.6yppl. Tennessee also had two long touchdown runs but they did average 4.4yppl without those rushes. They also passed for 6.9yps and allowed just 3.4yps for Jacksonville. Tennessee averages 5.5ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.2yps against 5.8yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 6.0yppl against 5.8yppl. The 49ers average 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.2ypr against 3.8ypr and 6.3yps against 6.5yps for a total of 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SF by 8.5 points and predict about 44 points. I like what I see in Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree. The 49ers offense is starting to resemble a normal offense. For Tennessee I still have doubts about what Vince Young can do on the road. Slight lean to SF. SAN FRANCISCO 24 TENNESSEE 17
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
NY GIANTS -5 San Diego 47.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
SD defeated Oakland by only eight points last week but they dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. They out passed Oakland 9.5yps to 3.0yps and overall 6.2yppl to 3.3yppl. For Oakland, 13 of their 16 points came on drives of 29 yards or less and all 16 points came on drives of 43 yards or less. For the Giants, they were throttled by Philadelphia 40-17. They were out rushed 7.5ypr to 4.4ypr, out passed 8.4yps to 5.2yps and overall 8.0yppl to 4.9yppl. SD averages just 3.1ypr against 4.0ypr but 7.6yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.8yps against 5.6yps and 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl. The Giants average 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr and 7.1yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. The Giants qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 48-18-0. Numbers favor the Giants by 5.5 points and predict about 59 points. The Giants haven’t faced an above average offense at home this year but the three they have faced on the road have lit up the scoreboard, averaging 40 points. Meanwhile, they have averaged 32 points against the below average defenses they have faced. SD has allowed 35 points against the two above average offenses they have faced, while scoring at least 23 points in every game this year. I will lean towards the Giants but can’t play them because of the injuries in their secondary, especially knowing SD can match the best of them with their passing game. The over looks like a solid play here. NY GIANTS 34 SAN DIEGO 28
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PHILADELPHIA -3 Dallas 49
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Philly destroyed the Giants last week 40-17 as they out gained the Giants 7.5ypr to 4.4ypr, 8.4yps to 5.2yps and 8.0yppl to 4.9yppl. Dallas blew out Seattle 38-17 and out gained the Seahawks 5.4yppl to 4.8yppl. Dallas averages 5.4ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 6.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Their defense allows 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.3yppl against 5.0yppl. Philly averages 4.9ypr against 4.5ypr and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has played extremely well, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.0yps against 5.7yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Philly by 2.5 points and predict about 54 points. These two have combined for at least 50 points in each of the last three games played here. Philly has scored at least 33 points in each of their home games against average to below average defenses this year. Dallas has played two good offenses this year and allowed 33 and 21 points, both at home. They have not faced a good offense on the road. They were held to just 10 points on the road against the one good defense they played, Denver. This should be a high scoring game as both teams should get into the 20’s and that gives this game an excellent chance to go over the total. PHILADELPHIA 30 DALLAS 27
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pittsburgh -3 DENVER 40
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Denver was blown out at Baltimore last week, 30-7. They were out gained in that game, 4.7yppl to 3.4yppl, including being out passed 6.2yps to 3.4yps. Pittsburgh comes off their bye week after defeating Minnesota 27-17 the week before. The Steelers needed two defensive scores in that game to get the victory. Denver averages just 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl but the defense has been solid. They allow just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.2yps against 6.3yps and 4.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Pittsburgh averages 7.6yps against 6.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. Denver qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 48-18-0. Numbers favor Denver by 6.5 points and predict about 32 points. Denver is still getting disrespected. Denver has already held good offenses like Dallas, New England and San Diego to an average of 17 points per game. When you add in last weeks game against Baltimore, their average against above average offenses is 20 points per game allowed. Pittsburgh has faced just one good defense this year and that was Chicago, where they scored just 14 points. They’ve allowed an average of 20 points on the road in three games, against lesser competition than what Denver presents on Monday. Strong situation and way too much line value to ignore Denver in this game. DENVER 20 PITTSBURGH 14
HalfBets
10* NY Giants -4.5
LARRY NESS
NFL Blowout GOY
Larry used the Ravens (-4) as his 25* AFC Game of the Year in Week 8 and he delivered "big-time" with a 30-7 win. It was the FIFTH consecutive Sunday in which he had won his No.1 NFL play of the weekend. Larry makes it “SIX-in-a-row” with his No. 1 NFL play for Week 9, his 25* Blowout Game of the Year on Sunday! Your move? Eli Manning and Philip Rivers meet for the first time in their NFL careers this Sunday at Giants Stadium. They will linked forever because of the 2004 draft. Manning and his representatives told San Diego not to pick him with the 2004 draft's No. 1 choice but the Chargers selected him anyway. The Giants would chose Rivers at No. 4. The two teams then swapped QBs with the Giants also sending the Chargers picks that San Diego used on Shawne Merriman and kicker Nate Kaeding. Rivers has produced the better overall numbers but of course Eli led the Giants to that Super Bowl win over then-unbeaten Patriots with Manning winning the MVP. This first-ever meeting between the two QBs comes at a major crossroads for both teams, particularly the Giants. I'll look at the Chargers first. They made the postseason last year at 8-8, when the Broncos collapsed at the end of the season. Head coach Norv Turner is always on the "hot seat," but one must admit, he has been able to advance in the postseason, something Marty could never do. The problem for San Diego this year is that the Chargers were expected to roll to the AFC west title opposed by only the Broncos (left for dead), Chiefs and Raiders. The Chiefs and Raiders are as bad as expected but the Broncos are 6-1, leaving the 4-3 Chargers facing a possible three-game deficit after eight games with a San Diego loss and Denver win this Sunday. LT looks "finished," with just 267 yards rushing (3.4 YPC) Y-T-D. He's gone a career-high 13 straight games without gaining 100 yards and the Chargers enter averaging a miniscule 74.7 YPG on the ground (only the Cards rush for less), while the team's 3.1 YPC is an NFL-low. Rivers is having another good year plus Jackson has developed in a "big-play" WR but his completion percentage is down from 65.3 LY to 59.7 and his QB rating down from 105.5 to 95.9. San Diego's rush 'D' was really hurt by the loss of NT Jamal Williams for the year and enters ranked 27th (132.1 YPG / 4.2 YPC). Merriman has never regained his previous form and the pass 'D' is more than capable of giving up big plays. Now to the Giants, who opened 5-0. Problem was, they beat the Cowboys 33-31 on the game's final play (FG), while their other four wins came over teams which are currently a combined 5-24 (.172). Have the Giants been 'exposed' the last three weeks? They've lost 48-27 at New Orleans, 24-17 at home to the Cards and 40-17 at the Eagles. They've allowed 37.3 PPG while Eli has completed 49.5% with three TDs and six INTs, after completing 64.4% witha 10-2 ratio in the 5-0 start. RB Jacobs had nine 100-yard games (out of 24) while topping 1,000 yards the last two seasons and averaging 5.0 YPC but hasn't topped 92 yards in a game this year (averages less than 70 per game), while gaining 3.9 YPC. However, that Giants running game isn't that far 'off,' as this year's team is averaging 141.8 YPG (4.4 YPC), after leading the NFL in rushing LY (157.4 YPG / 5.0 YPC). Let me also note that in the team's three-game slide, the Giants only allowed 288 yards to the Cards in that seven-point loss at home, while allowing an average of 442.0 YPG and 44.0 PPG in losses at New Orleans and Philly. At 5-3 and with the 5-2 Cowboys visiting the 5-2 Eagles, the Gains are in a "MUST-WIN" situation. A loss here and who knows where the team is headed? Does that mean the Giants have to win? Of course not but I'm not about to sell Eli or this team, short, just yet (see me after the game!). San Diego's four wins this year have come over the 2-6 Raiders (twice), the 3-4 Dolphins and the 1-6 Chiefs while they've lost to the Ravens, Steelers and Broncos (combined 15-6, .714). The dysfunctional Chargers are coming cross-country to face an embarrassed and angry Giants team which has proven in the past to play its best ball with its collective backs to the wall. NFL Blowout GOY 25* NY Giants.
Lenny Del Genio
25* Division Game of the Year
Play on Houston at 1:00 ET. Winners of three straight and now 5-3 for the first time in franchise history, this is probably the biggest game in the history of the Texans franchise. Coming into the season big things were expected from the Houston offense and this unit has not disappointed. Behind QB Matt Schaub, who has more passing yards and TD's than Peyton Manning this year (played one more game), has directed the offense to a franchise-best four 400+ yard games. They have scored 24 or more points in six of their last seven games. Even with Steve Slaton struggling, the Texans have found another RB to produce in Ryan Moates, who had three touchdowns a week ago. Schaub, who has already set a career high with 16 TD's, completed 27 of 33 passes for 236 yards in his lone start vs. Indianapolis last year. He and the best WR in football, Andre Johnson, can take advantage of a Colts secondary that could be down as many as two cornerbacks here. Offense has always been a strength for this team, but where the true improvement has come has been in the trenches. No one questions the drafting of former #1 overall DC Mario Williams over Reggie Bush any longer. The run defense, formerly a real sore spot, has improved by leaps and bounds allowing just three yards per carry over its last five games. The Colts rank just 30th in rushing in the league and could be without Donald Brown for a second straight game. Last week, they ran for just 61 yards on 21 carries with just five of those going for four yards or more. This season, Indianapolis has just three runs of 20 ya‚rds or more! Much is being made of the fact that this head-to-head rivalry has been so one-sided in front of the Colts. Yes, Indianapolis leads 13-1 in terms of straight up results, but at the betting window it's an even 7-7 split and last year's two games were decided by a total of 10 points, one of which came about due to a terrible 4th quarter effort from jettisoned Texans QB Sage Rosenfels. Overall, Houston is on a 7-2 ATS run in division games while the Colts are just 1-4 ATS L5 when hosting AFC South foes. Indianapolis has to lose a regular season game sooner or later (won 15 straight) and even if they don't here, we'll be glad to grab all these points. Houston is our 25* AFC South Game of the Year.
ROCK BOX SPORTS
3* CAROLINA PANTHERS +13
It seems inevitable that some of the big dogs are going to start covering as Vegas extends lines further and further upward due to the avalanche of public money coming in on teams like the Colts, Pats, and Saints. We suspect that there will be less and less to be gained by laying the points as the season wears on and plenty of value to be found with certain double-digit dogs in the right situations.
Witness the case the of the 2007 Pats who came out of the gates covering their first eight games against the spread, generating a public frenzy of Pats money as Vegas jacked lines through the roof to protect itself. Result? From week nine onwards the Pats went 2-9 against the spread including playoffs, failing to cover their last six in a row.
This year’s Saints may not be quite in the class of the ’07 Pats in terms of public support, but they’re close. Drew Brees and company opened the season with six straight covers, but the worm may have begun its turn on Monday night as the Falcons back-door covered an inflated eleven point spread. No signs this week that the public is dissuaded, though, as money continues to pour in on New Orleans. We expect that there will be similar value in going against the Saints down the stretch as seen with the ’07 Pats.
Morever, the Panthers have been quietly improving and actually seem to match up well this Sunday. John Fox’s crew is 3-1 since their bye-week and is coming of an impressive dismantling of Arizona last week. The Carolina defense has been improving steadily as the players grow accustomed to the new scheme installed this season. NFC Defensive Player of the Week Julius Peppers is starting look like his old self, with 23 tackles, six sacks, eight quarterback pressures, two forced fumbles and an interception return for a touchdown in the last four games.
On offense, the running game, the bread-and-butter for last season’s playoff squad, looked as strong as ever last week. If the Saints have a weakness this year, it may be defending the run. Few teams have had the opportunity to exploit this weakness, however, because they get behind early. This is when the opportunistic Saints pass defense goes to work. However, the Panthers have the kind of running game that can set the tempo and burn clock while keeping the Saints offense on the sidelines. If the Panthers defense can hold their own- and they are #1 in the NFL against the pass- this game could be a lot closer than one might assume.
Keep in mind that Jake Delhomme, a Louisiana native, is 8-2 lifetime against the Saints and has NEVER lost in the Superdome. In fact, THE PANTHERS HAVEN’T LOST IN THE SUPERDOME SINCE 2001. That’s not to say they’ll win this week, but it does tell us that they won’t be intimidated by the frenzied dome atmosphere.
One of the problems that the Pats faced in 2007 in terms of covering spreads was that opposing teams increasingly viewed their matchups with New England as their own personal Super Bowls, playing with great emotion and giving the Pats their best shot. This dynamic, in combination with inflated point spreads, translates into a lot of covering by the dogs.
This is precisely the situation that the Saints will face this week. Coming off a big Monday-nighter against the Falcons, they will face a Panthers team that will be playing with great emotion against their undefeated division rival. If the Saints cannot match this emotion, they may find themselves in a dogfight.
BRANDON LANG
25 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - Love the Chargers in this spot here.
Who are the Giants to be laying more than a field goal to anybody right now?
Seriously folks, this is a team that over the last 3 weeks has gone from contender to pretender. Simple as that.
It started in New Orleans 3 weeks ago, when the Saints exposed this Giants defense to a degree we haven't seen under Tom Coughlin.
Then 2 weeks ago, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals went into New York and exposed Giants even more in getting the outright win as a 7 point underdog.
Last week the Eagles showed what happened against New Orleans and Arizona was no accident as they embarrassed New York in a big way.
The Giants for all intents and purposes, are done.
Mark it down now. They are done and the main reason they are done is the fact they can't cover anybody.
The can't get pressure with their front four so they are having to blitz more, and if you know anything about the NFL, then you should know if you blitz in this league, the chances are you are playing man to man behind it and if those guys can't cover, you are in big trouble.
After they play the Chargers today, they play Atlanta, at Denver, Dallas and Philly. Quite frankly, I can see them losing all 4 of those games. They catch a break facing Washington after that but then they finish with Carolna and at Minnesota.
I know this might be hard to accept but 8-8 is probably reality, or even 7-9 isn't out of the question. That is how bad and overrated this team is.
At the NFL level, when you lose your defensive coordinator - as good as Spagnuola is, there is a very good chance your defense is going to struggle which is exactly what we are seeing from New York. They look lost.
Even after their implosion the last 3 weeks, the Giants are still an overvalued team. Highly overvalued, and I will gladly take the Chargers who I feel match up very well offensively against this Giants defense and will be able to have enough success to be in this game the whole way.
I will gladly take the Chargers and the points and it wouldn't suprise me in the least bit to see San Diego win this game outright.
25 dime CHARGERS
10 DIME - CAROLINA PANTHERS - Way to many points here.
I have to admit, I didn't give the Panthers a chance out in Arizona last week but let me tell you something right now, that was the way I remember the Panthers playing.
The way they ran the football and put Jake in very manageable situations, that is how this team used to win football games.
Now they are catching close to 2 touchdowns here against a division foe they are very familiar with and having gotten the money 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Watching the Monday night game and seeing the success the Falcons were having on the ground against this Saints defense, I immediately felt the Panthers would be able to do the same thing today.
Carolina will attack this game exactly the same way they did Arizona last week. Run the football. Run the football some more. Run the football until you can't run the football anymore.
Can the Panthers win this game outright? You better believe they can, and if they win the turnover battle, they just might.
But catching this many points from a Saints team that all of a sudden is overvalued.
Folks, 2 years ago the linemaker in Vegas got burned by the high scoring Patriots as they covered their 10 games to start the year and the public killed the Vegas sportsbooks right along with it.
After they blew out Buffalo on Sunday night 56-10, oddsmakers in Vegas said that's it. We are not letting this team beat us again.
The next 6 weeks of the regular season the Patriots were laying 24 at home to Philly, 20 1/2 on the road at Baltimore, 24 at home to the Jets, 24 at home to the Dolphins and 13 on the road at New York.
That gives you and idea of how the linemakers overvalued the Patriots because they weren't going to let the public make money with this team.
After the Buffalo blowout, you know what the Patriots went against the spread the rest of the year including the playoffs? 1-10 ATS.
I honestly feel we are dealing with a Saints team the linemaker has decided to do the same thing with but the only difference is they are not waiting for week 11 to jack the line up like they did with New England.
They started last week with the -11 number with Atlanta, and it continued this week with a 13 number with the Panthers.
Learned my lesson on Monday night. Simple as that.
10 dime CAROLINA
Bob Valentino
25 DIME: SEAHAWKS
Stephen Nover
Sunday's Plays 50 Dime PATRIOTS - This year is different in the NFL. You can't be afraid to lay double-digits.
I see the Patriots and Tom Brady tearing apart an overrated Dolphins team that was extremely fortunate to beat the Jets last week (outgained by 274 yards from scrimmage) and whose secondary is extremely vulnerable with two rookie cornerbacks.
You can be darn sure Bill Belichick isn't going to let kick returner Ted Guinn beat him like blustery Rex Ryan did. Without long returns from Guinn, the Dolphins don't have the offense to keep up with Brady, who finally appears to be 100 percent.
The Patriots are close to their record-setting form of two years ago scoring 94 points in their last two games. The Dolphins don't have the experience or depth in the secondary to keep up with New England's three and four wide receiver sets.
The Dolphins aren't going to trick the Patriots with their wildcat formation like they did last year in Foxboro. The Patriots were humiliated in that contest, their worst loss in eight years at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots were idle last week. You know Belichick, a legitimate defensive genius, will have his team fired up and well prepared for any trickery the Dolphins' limited offense can come up with. This is just Chad Henne's fifth start.
The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread following a bye.
20 Dime PACKERS - The situation isn't the best for Green Bay, off a tough home loss to division rival Minnesota. But it won't matter in this matchup.
Tampa Bay is on its way to matching Detroit's winless season of last year. Yes, the Buccaneers are that bad. And they're going to be even worse with rookie quarterback Josh Freeman becoming their third starting quarterback of the season.
Freeman has a big arm, but he's not nearly ready to start in the NFL. Green Bay's 3-4 defense is going to have a monster game against him. Freeman is going to be confused by Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers' schemes.
Freeman's passer rating in preseason was 41. The only time he has played during the regular season was nine snaps during two series in the Buccaneers' blowout loss in London to the Patriots.
Aaron Rodgers is having a tremendous statistical season. The Packers' problem has been pass protection. Look for that to be greatly improved as veteran left tackle Chad Clifton, Green Bay's best pass blocker, and right tackle Mark Tauscher are now ready to move into the starting lineup. Clifton had been hurt and Tauscher was recently resigned.
Look for Rodgers' confidence to go way up knowing his blindside will be protected and Jared Allen isn't around to hound him. The Packers are 16-6-1 against the spread on the road, 9-3 against the number as a road favorite.
Tampa Bay has failed to cover in its last seven home games.
10 Dime REDSKINS - I'll take this many points with a Redskins squad that ranks fourth in total defense giving up 283 yards per game and fifth in defensive scoring allowing 17.6 points per contest.
It's not like Atlanta is playing well. The Falcons have lost their last two games, surrendering a combined 72 points in road losses to Dallas and New Orleans.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan isn't experiencing a sophomore jinx after an outstanding rookie season, but he is on a cold spell throwing seven interceptions in his last three games while only completing 51.8 percent of his passes during this span.
Washington was idle last week. The Falcons have been on the road the past two weeks. They go on the road in their next two games, including facing division rival Carolina next week.
So the scheduling dynamics are in the Redskins' favor. The key is can the Redskins' offense, which has been terrible, put up enough points to get the cover?
New play-caller Sherm Lewis has had more time to digest the situation. The Redskins have had an extra week to get their much-maligned offensive line in order. Expect fresh legs from Clinton Portis.
Atlanta doesn't present a tough defense for the Redskins to overcome. The Redskins can move the ball better than perceived. The Falcons have given up 28 pass plays of 20 or more yards, second-worst in the league.
Jason Campbell should have time to throw. The Falcons have only 14 sacks, which ranks 24th. John Abraham is having a down year rushing the passer. Without Abraham, the Falcons can't generate a pass rush unless they blitz, which will open the short game up.
Jeff Benton
2009 NFL Game of the Year winner. 50 DIME: PATRIOTS
Patriots
The last time Miami went to New England, it introduced “The Wildcat” to the NFL. Caught completely off guard, the Patriots were crushed 38-13 as a 12½-point home favorite, with the Dolphins putting up 461 yards (216 rushing) and holding the Matt Cassel-led Patriots offense to just 216 total yards (and that was Cassel’s third career start).
Two months later, after studying hours of “Wildcat” tape, Bill Belichick took his team to Miami and got some big-time revenge in a 48-28 win as a one-point road favorite, this time holding the Dolphins to just 62 rushing yards, while the offense rolled up 530 yards, with Cassel throwing for 408 yards. It was classic Belichick: You may fool and embarrass him once, but you will not do so twice.
So how does this all apply to today’s game? Well, for starters, the Patriots are coming off a bye, meaning they’ve had two weeks to prepare for any new “Wildcat” wrinkles, not to mention two weeks to study new Dolphins QB Chad Henne, who will be making his fifth career start today. As anyone who has followed football religiously for the last decade knows, Bill Belichick eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, lunch AND dinner. There’s little no doubt that the New England defense, which surrendered a grand total of seven points and 144 passing yards in two wins prior to the bye, will make life miserable for Henne (who struggled through a 12-for-21, 112-yard passing day and was sacked six times at the Jets last week). There’s also little doubt that New England will be more prepared for the “Wildcat” than any team Miami has faced to this point.
At the same time, you think Tom Brady is itching to get back on the field after a week off? The Golden Boy finally looked to have turned the corner from his knee injury the last two weeks, lighting up the Titans and Bucs for a combined 688 passing yards, nine TDs and two INTs, completing 78.8 percent of his passes (52-for-66) … and he didn’t even finish either game! Today, Brady is going up against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL (the Dolphins give up 240.6 passing ypg and 7.8 yards per pass attempt). The last time Brady faced Miami was during the Patriots’ 2008 perfect season, and all he did was complete 39 of 58 passes (67 percent) for 569 yards and nine touchdowns, leading his team to wins of 28-7 at home and 49-28 on the road. And get this: Today, Brady – along with partners in crime Randy Moss and Wes Welker – gets to go up against TWO rookie cornerbacks!
While New England is coming off a bye here, Miami is in a really bad situational spot, as it is making its second straight trip to the Northeast. Last week, the Dolphins got one of the luckiest wins you’ll ever see in the NFL. Despite managing just 104 total yards (52 net rushing, 52 net passing) and giving up 378 total yards (rookie QB Mark Sanchez had 265 passing yards and two TDs), Miami pulled out a 30-25 victory. The reason was Ted Ginn, who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns against the sloppy Jets’ special teams. That’s NOT happening again this week against a Bill Belichick-coached squad.
The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in the last six years when coming off a bye, and this particular week off came in the absolute perfect spot, as, again, it has given Belichick time to game plan for the Wildcat and pick apart Henne’s tendencies. It’s also given the coach extra time to bring back down to earth any of his players who might have been feeling a little too good about themselves after routing the Titans and Bucs by a combined score of 94-7.
Yes, Miami has won three of its last four after an 0-3 start, but we’ve already established that last week’s win over the Jets was a major fluke. To a lesser degree, so was the Dolphins’ win over New York three weeks earlier, when Miami scored a TD with seconds to play to pull out a 31-27 victory. The Dolphins’ only other win was at home against crappy Bills. Put it another way: Miami’s three wins and covers this year came against the Jets twice (and rookie QB Sanchez) and Bills (Trent Edwards). Its four losses and non-covers came against the Falcons (Matt Ryan), Colts (Peyton Manning), Chargers (Philip Rivers) and Saints (Drew Brees), and three of those were double-digit defeats!
Put it all together – Henne vs. a Belichick stop unit that’s ranks in the top 5 in passing defense; a smoking-hot Brady vs. a poor Dolphins pass D; the Patriots coming off a bye vs. the Dolphins making their second straight long road trip to play a divisional game; the Patriots playing at home, where they’re 4-0 SU with three straight spread-covers vs. the Dolphins playing on the road (1-3 SU and ATS) – and this has three-touchdown blowout written all over it!
My friends, your 2009 NFL Game of the Year is the New England Patriots, and I’ll call for a final score of 38-13.