Steven Budin
50 DIME: PHILADELPHIA
Philadelphia has been a steady -3 point favorite all week as this play is posted around 11 PM Eastern Saturday evening.
If the line remains -3 or moves to -3 1/2 or even -4, buy down the 1/2 point in each situation.
Thus, if you reduce the price to -2 1/2, and the Eagles prevail by just a field goal, you walk away with a win.
If the price is moved from -3 1/2 to -3, and the Eagles win by three, you get the push.
And if the price is moved from -4 to -3 1/2, a four-point win by the Eagles results in a win.
I do not anticipate this number moving past 4, but on the off chance it does move to -4 1/2, you would again buy down to -4 to assure yourself of a push should Philadelphia win by only four.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. In this case, however, it's a wise investment strategy, using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
2 Unit Play. Take Cincinnati +3 over Baltimore
I was really surprised by this spread. Cincinnati went into Baltimore and beat the Ravens last month and proved that they are equal to their division rivals. So why are they getting points here? Baltimore is coming off an emotional win at home last week against Denver. But now they have to go on the road to face a group that has had two weeks to prepare. All of the value here is on the home dog.
7 Unit Play. Take Over 52 Carolina at New Orleans
This is my NFL Total of the Year and I love this situation! No one can stop the New Orleans offense and they are averaging 40 points per game. They easily covered a 56-point total on Monday night and that was with only scoring seven points in the second half. Carolina will not be able to stop them. And I don't think that the Saints will be able to slow down the Carolina attack. The Panthers managed 35 points last week against a strong Arizona front four. I think that they will they will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Saints. New Orleans has gone 'over' in three straight games - almost by themselves! There will be lots of points and lots of big plays in this one and I think that will send us 'over'.
3 Unit Play. Take Under 48 Dallas at Philadelphia
I think that the public is eating up the 'over' on this game. But when it comes down to it this is a smashmouth game between NFC East rivals. After these two teams combined for over 70 points last week I think that this total is an overcorrection and that it's off by at least five points. It will be close, but it will stay 'under'.
4 Unit Play. Take Over 39.5 Pittsburgh at Denver
This total seems pretty low considering all of the firepower that is on the field for these two teams. Denver just gave up 30 points to a Baltimore team that is not as strong offensively as the Steelers. And with two weeks to prepare I think Pittsburgh will be sharp and ready to go. Denver was held to just six points last week. But they have a lot of weapons that I don't think will be held down. MNF games have gone 8-1 against the total this year and I look for that trend to continue.
Al DeMarco
Philadelphia Eagles
Game Day
4* New England
2* Washington
2* Seattle
Jim Fiest
High Roller Wipeout - Arizona
Has Jay Cutler been the savior for the Bears? The 4-3 Bears are 20th in total offense as Cutler has 11 TDs, 11 picks. The wideouts are weak (and young) and the offensive line is terrible. The Bears certainly took a beating during last week's 30-6 win over the Cleveland Browns, particularly Cutler. RB Matt Forte has looked more like a tackling dummy this season. Twenty-one teams have allowed more sacks than Chicago (11) and the 30 quarterback hits ranks 15th. They reshuffled their rotation last week with Josh Beekman starting at left guard over Frank Omiyale, yet the results weren't promising. An ugly win did nothing to ease concerns brought on by back-to-back losses, including a 45-10 thumping at Cincinnati the previous week. There were problems in the red zone, where Chicago converted just two of seven trips inside the 20 into touchdowns, and problems keeping the quarterback on his feet. The Bears allowed four sacks against a Browns team that ranked dead last defensively entering the game. They face an Arizona defense that is improved against the run and likes to blitz. And this Cardinals (4-3 SU/ATS) offense is explosive behind QB Kurt Warner, WR Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and WR Steve Breaston, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing. They will do well against a Chicago secondary that has only 5 interceptions all season. The Bears have converted only 33.3 percent of their third-down opportunities on offense. The defense is without star LB Brian Urlacher, who will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair his dislocated right wrist. The Bears had only 8 takeaways until getting 5 in Sundayâ??s 30-6 rout of the hapless Browns. The visitors have a big edge match-up wise and will carve up this secondary. Play the Cardinals!
Scott Spreitzer
NFL Blockbuster Blowout of Year - New England
I'm laying the points with New England on Sunday. The Patriots, along with the rest of the NFL-world were introduced to Miami's "Wildcat" offense on September 21, 2008. The Pats were a 12-point home favorite and were caught off guard, losing 38-13 in one of the ugliest losses of the Belichick-era. New England also didn't have Tom Brady in uniform...he was knocked out for the season in week-one. The Patriots had no problem at all the second time against the "Wildcat," thumping Miami 48-28 two months later as a two-point favorite. This time, the Patriots are off a bye-week, while the Dolphins were in a "heater" last Sunday against the Jets. Don't expect to see a new, "cute" offense from the Fins catching the Pats by surprise. Instead, we're likely going to see a huge game from Brady and his receiving corps. After all, Randy Moss and Wes Welker are going to be defended by a pair of rookie-corners. Belichick and the Pats with a week off to prepare for rookie corners? Are you kidding me? Miami's defense ranks just 19th overall this season with a pass defense that ranks 24th, allowing over 240-yards passing per game. The Dolphins have allowed 98-points in their last three games, almost 33 ppg. And Brady has been on fire over the last five games, including a 68% completion rate. This will be Miami's fourth straight emotionally-charged, and physical match over the last five weeks. I just don't think they're up to the task. Offensively, the Dolphins are challenged. Chad Henne really struggled on the road in last week's win over the Jets. Miami scored 30-points in a five-point win, but that was the most misleading score of the season. After all, the Dolphins were out-gained, 378-104. Yes, they had just 104-yards of offense. Henne completed just 12 of 21 passes for 112-yards, and he was sacked five times. This week, they'll face the league's sixth-ranked defense overall, and fifth-ranked pass defense. Belichick is as good as it gets planning out of a bye week and you can bet he'll have several man and zone "looks" to make Henne adjust on the fly. There are huge matchup advantages for the Patriots all over the field. They also owns a few "tech" advantages. Miami enters Sunday just 4-15 ATS off an upset win over a divisional opponent. They're also 1-9 ATS off a game where they averaged 3.5 yards per play or less. This team doesn't rebound well following a poor offensive performance. Look for New England to come out focused and determined off the bye week. I'm laying the points with New England, my Blockbuster Blowout GOY. Thanks! GL! Scott.
KELSO
25 units Eagles
25 units Steelers
25 unit Parlay
15 units Saints
5 units Baltimore
4 units Miami
3 units Chargers
Tim Trushel
20* SF Under
Washington
Carolina
Tenn
Matt Fargo
10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR *90% YTD*
Houston Texans
Inside Corner
6 units Seattle Seahawks -10
5 units San Francisco 49ers -4
4 units Houston Texans/Indianapolis Colts OVER 49
2.5 units Miami Dolphins +10.5
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wise guy 2009 NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles -3
The Cowboys have yet to pick up a signature win this season, and they're not about to get one in Philly Sunday night. Dallas is playing their best football right now, but their 3 straight wins have come against the Chiefs, Falcons and Seahawks. That's far from impressive. If you want to look at a team that steps up in big games, then look to the Eagles who just trounced the Giants last week 40-17 at home. The Eagles have held 5 straight opponents to 17 points or less, playing tremendous defense. We really feel that Philly is the more complete team, with more playmakers on offense and a better all-around defense. The numbers prove that as Dallas allows 342 yards/game while the Eagles give up just 297 yards/game. What will kill Dallas Sunday is their terrible pass defense, where they give up 237 passing yards/game compared to the 194 passing yards/game the Eagles give up. The Eagles are 3-1 at home this season, with their only loss to the Saints when Donovan McNabb wasn't playing due to a rib injury. Philly scores 32.2 points/game at home and averages 291 passing yards/game on their home turf. The Eagles rise up off a big division win, and that's proven by the fact that Philly is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. Brian Westbrook is back in the lineup this week, giving the Eagles another playmaker to go along with Jackson, Maclin, Celek and McCoy. The Eagles have too many weapons on offense, the better defense, and they are playing at home Sunday night. Take the Eagles and lay the points.
5* AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Texans/Colts OVER 47.5
This one is a no-brainer Sunday folks, because when Indy and Houston get together, offensive fireworks always ensue. The OVER is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings, where the Colts and Texans have combined to score at least 48 points every time. Both teams are dominant offensively again this year, as the Texans average 28.5 points/game on the road while the Colts put up 28.1 points/game overall. Houston is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) in dome games since 1992. Houston is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Get ready for a 9th consecutive shootout in this AFC South rivalry Sunday. Take the OVER 47.5 points.
4* on Ravens/Bengals UNDER 44
In the first meeting between Baltimore and Cincinnati, the Bengals topped the Ravens on the road by a final of 17-14. Expect this to be another fierce defensive battle in their second meeting, this time in Cincy. The UNDER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings, where these teams have combined to score 37 points or less in all 4 meetings. The odds makers aren't giving this Cincinnati defense enough credit Sunday, and they are giving their offense way too much respect. The Bengals give up just 18.3 points/game this season defensively. The Ravens allow a respectable 19.6 points/game, which is impressive considering the tough schedule they have faced already. The UNDER is 7-1 in Ravens last 8 games as a favorite. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Bengals last 15 home games. Take the UNDER 44 points here.
4* on Seattle Seahawks -10
Seattle has been dominant at home against inferior opponents. Yes, they are just 2-5 this season, but after both the Cardinals and 49ers lost last week they are not far back in the NFC West division. The Seahawks' two wins have come at home by finals of 41-0 over Jacksonville and 28-0 over the Rams. That was the same St. Louis team that the Lions lost 17-10 at home last week. This game has blowout written all over it as the Seahawks roll Sunday. The Lions are 0-3 on the road this season, losing by an average of 22.7 points/game. In fact, they have lost all 3 of their road games by 18 points or more. Detroit is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992. This is a tough road trip out on the West Coast for the Lions, which is never easy for any opponents. The Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take Seattle and lay the points.
4* on New York Giants -3.5
After 3 straight losses, the Giants bounce back in a big way at home Sunday against the vulnerable San Diego Chargers. The Chargers' three losses this season have come against the Ravens, Steelers and Broncos which are three teams that are the same caliber as the Giants. Their wins have come against the Raiders twice, Chiefs and the Dolphins. San Diego is simply overmatched Sunday, and they are up against a very hungry oponnent determined to end this 3-game skid. The Giants have been battling injuries, but they have three key players on defense that have returned to practice this week and will likely get the start. Michael Boley, Aaron Ross and Chris Canty are the three key players, and they have been missed the last 3 weeks as New York has imploded defensively. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. They did beat the Raiders last week, but only by a final of 24-16 as they let Oakland hang around. That was the same Raiders' team that the Giants beat 44-7 back on October 11th. The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Take New York and lay the points. (We'll take the Giants all the way up to -5.5 as a 4* Play, 3* Play at -6 or more)
DAVID MALINSKY
5* Jacksonville -6.5
4* New England -10.5
34PAYTONPLACE
5 unit- Cincinnati +3
5 unit- Packers/Bucs under 44
8 unit- Eagles -3
8 unit- Washington +9
10 unit- San Francisco -4
15 unit- New England -10 -125
Anthony Redd
25-Dime Titans
Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
10 DIMERS - GREEN BAY PACKERS & HOUSTON TEXANS
40 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Dallas has won and covered their last pair of games since coming out of their bye week. I am sure lots of folks are once again buying into the Dallas name, but let's be real, beating a banged up Atlanta team, and rolling a Seattle team that stinks - both wins at home by the way - ain't exactly the same as going into division-rival Philly's den under the lights, and winning against the Eagles.
Dallas has not played well at all on the road, as it took them nearly 3 full quarters to get rolling at Tampa Bay before disposing of the winless Bucs. Then they lost outright at Denver, and had to use overtime to win at lowly Kansas City.
I don't trust this Cowboys team on the road at all.
Philly is capable of lighting things up with their talent on offense, just ask the Giants all about that, and Philadelphia is currently on a 2-0 run both straight up, and against the spread, and the Birds are 4-1 both SU & ATS their last 5 games overall.
Series numbers show Philadelphia having covered the last 3, and 5 of the last 6. Included is a 44-6 anihilation at the Linc last season.
Until Dallas actually shows some balls on the road, they are a go-against!
10 DIMER - GREEN BAY PACKERS
Sometimes a play like this play is as obvious as they come, and I am not going to outsmart myself here, as I see no chance the Buccaneers cover this number against Green Bay.
The Packers will be out for blood after losing at home to Brett Favre and the Vikings, and it is unlikely that Josh Freeman who is getting his 1st NFl start is going to dissect a Dom Capers defense.
Green Bay has put the screws to the Rams, Lions, and Browns already, so why won't they do the same to the winless Bucs?
Tampa has now lost 10 straight, and they have failed 6 straight on their home turf against the spread.
Green Bay is on a 17-7 road spread run, and they have covered both tries this season as a road favorite.
No chance for the Bucs to pull the upset here, and no chance they even stay close with the points.
Lay it!