KBHoops
5* New England -10.5 Pod
4* Tennessee +4.5
Larry Ness
Weekend Wipeout Winner-NFL (won L4 NFL weeks)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET. No one was quite sure how Tom Brady would respond after missing the remainder of the 2008 season after getting hurt in Week 1 vs the Chiefs. The Pats (and Brady) were 'shaky' in opening 3-2, as Brady went 23-of-47 for 216 yards with no TDs and one INT in a 16-9 loss at the Jets and 19-of-33 for 215 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in a 20-17 OT loss at Denver (Pats led 17-7 at the half but never scored again). However, the Pats come into this game having beaten the Titans 59-0 at home and the Bucs 35-7 in London. Brady has completed 78.8 percent of his passes in those two wins, throwing nine TDs and just two INTs. Many people questioned the Patriots' defense coming into this year but the Pats rank 4th in yards allowed (285.7 YPG) and 3rd in points allowed (14.0 PPG). Getting to Miami, the Dolphins went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 and an AFC East title in 2008. However, they opened 0-3 in 2009, plus lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the season. Chad Henne has started the last four games, as Miami has clawed its way back with THREE wins. However, after completing 70.8 percent of his throws (3 TDs / 0 INTs) in his first two starts, Henne has completed just 52.6 percent in his last two (1 TD / 2 INTs). The Miami running game, led by Brown and Williams, is impressive. Miami comes in averaging 153.4 YPG (4.6 YPC) which ranks 3rd in the NFL but the defense is questionable. While New England's defense is allowing just 14.0 PPG, Miami's allows 25.3 PPG. Miami enters this game 3-4 only because of Ted Ginn's two 100-yard KO returns (1st time in NFL history a player has done that in the same game) and Jason Taylor's 48-yard fumble return for a TD. The Dolphins were outgained last Sunday in The Meadowlands by the Jets 378-to-104 in yards and 23-10 in FDs. However, Ginn's two return TDs and Taylor's fumble TD gave the Dolphins a 30-25 win. The Patriots will well-remember the Dolphins' 38-13 win last year in Foxboro plus one can't ignore this factoid. The Pats are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the game following their bye week (like here) since 2003, winning on average by 29.7-to-11.7 PPG. Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* NE Patriots.
Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (won L4 NFL weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET. The Saints matched the best start in franchise history with a 35-27 home win over Atlanta on Monday night ('91 Saints also opened 7-0). However, Monday's win was the first time New Orleans failed to cover in 2009. No one can argue with the way Drew Brees has played (68.3% / 286.6 YPG / 16-6 ratio / 107.6 QB rating) or the team's running game, which is fourth in the NFL at 153.3 YPG (4.5 YPC). That being said, let's note that the Saints almost lost in Week 7 at Miami (trailed 24-3 before rallying for a 46-34 win) and in last Monday night's game, the Saints were outgained by an opponent for the first time all season. Now I don't want to make too big of a deal over the Panthers but let's not forget this team was 12-4 in 2008. It's been an awful season for QB Delhomme (an NFL-high 13 INTs with a pathetic QB rating of 59.3) but this team can run and play defense. DeAngelo Williams has topped 150 yards in TWO of Carolina's last three games, including last week's 34-21 win at Arizona where the Panthers ran for 270 yards (Cards' defense entered the game allowing an NFL-best 67.5 YPG). Carolina is averaging 148.9 YPG on the ground this season (5th-best) and 4.7 YPC. The defense ranks seventh overall, allowing 288.1 YPG. Seven straight wins is impressive but laying about two TDs to the Panthers is "too much to ask." Just look at the history between these two teams since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, creating four, four-team divisions in both the AFC and NFC. The Panthers and Saints plus the Bucs and Falcons have made up the NFC South since then. The Panthers have come to New Orleans in each of the last seven years and won, outright. For the record, the Panthers have won at New Orleans 10-6, 23-20, 32-21, 27-10, 31-21, 16-13 and 33-31. I'm taking the points! Oddsmaker's Error 15* Car Panthers.
20* NFL Total of the Month (65.4% s/2003)
My 20* NFL Total of the Month is on Arz/Chi Over at 1:00 ET. This play is based on matchups and situational history. The Cards expected to have a much-improved running game this year but in fact, it's worse. The Cards ran for 73.6 YPG (3.5 YPC) last year and this year it's just 64.9 YPC (3.3 YPC). As for the Bears, they have struggled running the ball as well, averaging a modest 93.4 YPG (3.9 YPC). Considering Arizona owns one of the NFL's top rushing defenses (allowing just 96.4 YPG and only 3.8 YPC, despite allowing the Panthers to rush for 270 yards last week), I doubt the Bears will be interested in running much either. The weather is unseasonably warm in Chicago (high 60s), so I look for a 'shootout' between Cutler and Warner. The Bears are 3-0 at home in 2009 with Cutler completing 64.6 percent of his passes with four TDs and one INT (96.6 rating). Warner is coming off one of the worst games of his career (five INTs and a fumble vs the Panthers) but has been excellent on the road in 2009 (73.8 percent / 250 YPG / 5 TDs and 2 INTs / 102.0 QB rating). Taking a look at the history book and it reveals these numbers. The Cards are 48-26-1 (65.9%) to the 'over' since the beginning of the 2005 season (including LY's postseason). They are 25-11-1 (69.4%) to the over in games away from home, including two of three this year, averaging 27.3 PPG. History is also on our side in taking the Bears 'OVER' at home. Chicago's defense led them to an 11-5 season in 2005 but the Bears lost their first playoff game that postseason, 29-21 in Chicago to the Panthers. Beginning with that game, the Bears have played 30 home games, with the OVER cashing 21 of 30 times, or 70.0 percent of the time! NFL November Total of the Month 20* Arz/Chi Over.
Teddy Covers
PISTONS
Master Sports
3* Golden St
Wayne Root
10* Perfect Play New England
Teddy June
20* Giants
Redskins
Kyle Bales
5* San Francisco 49ers -4
10* Philadelphia Eagles -3
10* Phoenix Suns -1.5
15* New York Giants -4.5
Tom Stryker
4* Giants Over
Bobby Maxwell
700-Unit NFL Absolute Lock - SAN FRANCISCO NINERS
This line has intrigued me all week. The line has actually swung toward the Titans, which I don’t understand at all. So I’m taking the Niners at home in this one.
Tennessee got its first win of the season last week with a 30-13 win over the Jaguars. But it had nothing to do with the QB switch from Kerry Collins to Vince Young, it had to do with RB Chris Johnson going out of his mind and rushing for 228 on 24 carries with long TD runs of 89 and 52 yards.
Don’t read too much into that, the Tennessee defense isn’t getting any better any time soon. They are still allowing an NFL worst 30.1 points per game.
San Francisco made the QB switch to Alex Smith last week and hung with the unbeaten Colts in Indianapolis, losing 18-14 but cashing as a 13-point road ‘dog. Yes, the Niners have lost three straight, but those are some tough losses. This is the best 3-4 team in the NFL and today they are going to jump all over the Titans.
Tennessee is on ATS skids of 1-5 overall and 1-5 on the road. On the other side, the Niners are on ATS streaks of 5-1-2 overall, 4-1-1 at home and 5-1 in November contests.
Look for Smith to find his favorite target, TE Vernon Davis, a few times today. Smith was 19 of 32 for 198 yards last week in Indy and he’s throwing the ball very well. The Niners have the league’s second-ranked rush defense, giving up 84.9 yards per game. So they will be focused on stopping Johnson and that Titans’ running game, leaving it up to Young to try and beat them – and he can’t.
Lay the chalk with San Francisco in this one.
100-Unit NFL Oddsmaker's Error - BALTIMORE RAVENS
Baltimore showed some of its true colors last week when the defense stepped up and dominated the previously unbeaten Broncos 30-7, cashing as a 4 ½-point home favorite. This team still has the dominating defense it always has, but for some reason, they had three bad games and got people to start questioning them – big mistake.
Today the Ravens are still a little angry over the upset Cincinnati pulled four weeks ago when the Bengals marched into Baltimore and won 17-14 as a nine-point underdog. One of the rare games this season where the Ravens’ offense didn’t show up.
Joe Flacco has Baltimore’s offense fourth in the NFL in scoring at more than 28 points a game and seventh at 378.7 yards per contest. This kid seems to get it and will play the safe game today and not make any mistakes that will hurt his team. He knows the defense is coming out today to put on a show and he just needs to keep the car from crashing.
The Ravens are on ATS streaks of 20-7 overall, 10-2 as a favorite, 13-4 after a straight-up win, 9-3 on the road and 7-3 when facing divisional foes. On the opposite side, the Bengals are on ATS slides of 2-8 after the bye week, 5-12 against AFC teams and 5-12 after they get an ATS win.
Cincinnati crushed Chicago 45-10 last time it was on the field and got a monster day from Cedric Benson. He also ran over the Ravens defense four weeks ago. He isn’t going to do it again. This Ravens defense is too good. Play Baltimore and watch them win this one by 10.
100-Unit NFL Sunday Night Sizzler - DALLAS COWBOYS
This is a battle for the top spot in the NFC East and the 100th time these rivals have squared off. And there is still some lingering feelings from last year’s 44-6 thumping Philly gave Dallas last season with a wild-card playoff spot on the line.
I’m grabbing the points with the Cowboys in this one because they’ve actually been more consistent this season than the Eagles.
Dallas has scored impressive wins the last two weeks, beating Atlanta and Seattle at home and cashing in both contests. The Cowboys have won four of five with the only loss being the 17-10 defeat in Denver when they had chances late in the game to win that one.
Philly beat up the Giants last week 40-17 but prior to that they looked flat in two road games at Oakland 13-9 loss as 14-point favorites) and on a Monday night at Washington, winning 27-17 as a nine-point favorite but scoring and doing nothing in the second half of that one.
QB Tony Romo has led the Cowboys offense to second in the NFL at 411.1 yards per game, including a rushing attach that nets 147.6 yards each time out. This is a well-balanced offense that can keep a defense on its heels. Romo has to say away from the catastrophic mistake that surrenders not only a turnover, but six points.
Defensively, the Cowboys give up 19.4 points a game (10th in the NFL) and the key tonight will be getting pressure on Eagles’ QB Donovan McNabb and making him uncomfortable in the pocket.
The Cowboys have cashed in four straight November starts and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against NFC squads. In this Rivalry, the underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run and the road team has cashed in four of the last five matchups.
Grab the points and play Dallas in this one.
Mean Green Profit
SAN JOSE ST + 13.5
PATS/PHINS 1ST HALF TOTAL: OVER 23.5
HAWKS/LIONS UNDER 42
1. Asa 4-hou, 3-caro, ne
2. Ats 6-ne, 5-phil, 4-sd
3. Ben burns 10-tb, dall under, 9-dall, 7-wash / 9-s jose
4. Big money phil
5. Blazer 4-sf
6. Carolina sports 4-wash, 3-ariz, sea
7. Doc enterprises 5-balt, 4-hou, wash under
8. Dr. Bob 2-wash, op: Nyg, sea under
9. Gameday 4-ne, 2-wash, sea
10. Inside info 3-sf
11. Joe d 20-balt, 15-nyg
12. Lt profits 7 game of month: Tenn, 3-dall, jax
13. Nationwide (goldst) top: Hou, reg: Ariz, gb, phil
14. Neri 4-nyg, 3-jax, sea, 2-dall / nev
15. Northcoast 3 1/2-sea, 3-ariz, hou over
16. Pointwise 3-ariz, ne, 2-gb, hou, balt, sf
17. Preferred picks 4-caro
18. Private players 4-nyg, 3-sf, sea, wash, ne, colts over
19. Score 400-ne, 300-nyg, dall
20. Underdog pass
21. Northcoast totals
22. Kelso 25-phil, 15-no, 5-balt, 4-mia, 3-sd
23. Millionaire club 3-ne
24. Ness 25-nyg
25. Pure lock gb
26. Patron 20k-balt
GUARANTEED CAPPERS LOCK CLUB
10* WASHINGTON +9
10* ARIZONA +3 -115
10* CAROLINA +13
DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
7* Destroyer- NY Giants -5
5*-Miami/NE Over 47
5*-TB +10
5*-Houston +8
5*-Dallas +3
Heisman Trophy Club
20* NY Giants
10* Cinn, Wash
NHL PRO PICKS
Edmonton +162
Score
400 NE
300 NYG, Dall
Sports Unlimited
7* CHICAGO
5* NYGIANTS
4* DALLAS under