Ben Burns
10* Raiders / Chargers Under 44
I'm playing on San Diego and Oakland to finish UNDER the total. These teams have both been involved in some high-scoring games so far. The Raiders have seen three of their four games finish above the total, including each of the last two. The Chargers have seen three of four games finish above the total, including each of the past three. Those results have helped to provide us with a generously high O/U number to work with on Sunday afternoon. I believe that its too high. Let's look at the actual number first. Currently, its sitting above the important or 'key' number of 44. While we haven't seen many games landing on 44 yet this season (its still early) historically, that is among the more popular final combined scores. (24-20, 23-21, 27-17, 30-14 etc). Looking at last season's meetings between these teams and we find that the O/U lines were set at 41.5 for the game at San Diego and 42.5 for the game here at Oakland. What happened? The game at San Diego finished with 40 points and the game here at Oakland finished with, you guessed it, 44 points. Even though the 'under' was 1-1 in those games, the same scores would have produced a 2-0 mark to the 'under' with today's higher line. Looking back further and we find that nine of the last 11 meetings in this series have finished with 44 or fewer combined points. NONE of those games produced greater than 47 points and the 11 games averaged 40.6 points. (Two of the 11 finished th exactly 44.) Note that seven of the last eight games had O/U lines of 44 or less, again going back to the point about line value. I successfully played on the Chargers to finish 'under' the total in their only divisional game, the only Charger total which I have played. That was in their opener vs. the Chiefs. (I also won with the Chiefs in that game.) The Raider have yet to play a divisional game yet this season. However, if we look at the last two seasons we find that the UNDER was a profitable 7-3-2 in their divisional games. True, the Chargers offense is still potent. However, its been pretty darn good for quite a few years now and we still haven't been seeing too many 'shootouts' in this series. Also, note that the offense is only averaging 17 points on the road, scoring 14 and 20 points. As for defense, the Chargers are allowing only 17.7 points and just 235.5 yards per game. The Raiders have yet to score more than 24 points in a game and are averaging 19. Even though one of their two home games was against high-scoring Houston, they're still allowing a somewhat respectable 22.5 points per game here. Overall, opposing teams are averaging 305.7 yards against them. Both teams have been running the ball quite frequently. The Raiders have run the ball at least 25 times per game and an average of 31 times per game. The Chargers have run the ball at least 29 times (38 last time) in three of their four games and are averaging 29 rushing attempts per game. As you know, regular running plays help to keep the clock moving, a good thing when trying to cash an 'under' ticket. The Raiders, who are off back to back losses, have seen the UNDER go 8-3 the last two seasons when coming off two or more consecutive losses. While I respect the SD offense, I expect those numbers to improve here.
10* Cowboys -7
I'm playing on DALLAS. I may have played against the Cowboys when they lost vs. the Redskins, but I still respect them and feel that they're among the most dangerous teams in the NFC. I also feel that this will be a good spot for them to come through with a big win. To their credit, the Titans have fared very well against teams from the NFC in recent seasons. This year, they've already beaten up on the Giants, which was their only road game. That may have been partly a case of the Titans catching the Giants at the right time though, as New York was fresh off a nationally televised blowout loss vs. the Colts, in the Manning vs. Manning showdown. No such luck this time. The Cowboys responded to their 0-2 start by blowing out a very good Houston team in their last game. They've since had a bye. Note that the Cowboys are an outstanding 16-5 in post-bye games, since the bye was implemented by the NFL in 1990. Under Phillips, the Cowboys have not only won all three games following their bye, but they even have at least a three-game winning streak after the break in all three of Phillips' seasons as head coach. Some of you will recall that I had a big play (*10 "Personal Favorite") on the Cowboys, following their bye last season. Laying -5 or -5.5 points, Dallas crushed a solid Atlanta team by a score of 37-21. The previous season, following their bye, the Cowboys went on the road and won outright at Washington. In 2007, following their bye, they traveled to Philadelphia and smashed the Eagles by a score of 38-17. In other words, regardless of one's opinion of Phillips, there's no denying that he's been able to have the Cowboys "ready to go," following their past byes. It should also be noted that the bye should have allowed tight end Jason Witten and left guard Kyle Kosier (among others) the time to heal and be ready to play here. That may not have been the case if the Cowboys played last week as both players had suffered knee injuries in the win over Houston. Witten was quoted as saying: "This is a good time for us to play well and take care of what we need to do. It's too early to panic or anything like that. But we got ourselves in a hole, and we know we're still in good shape, but we have to start playing well and put some wins together." While the media won't spend much time talking about it, the Titans suffered some costly injuries along the defensive line last week. That's not a good thing right before traveling to Dallas. Of course, it should also be mentioned that the Titans secondary allowed Kyle Orton and the Broncos to go 35 of 50 and throw for nearly 350 yards last week. Underdogs have gotten off to a strong start to the season but here's a case where I expect the favorite to 'get the cash'.
Jets / Vikings Under 38
Lions / Rams Under 41
Chiefs / Colts Under 44
Bills -1
Dwayne Bryant
Green Bay -2.5
Buffalo -1.5
SIXTH SENSE
BEST BETS
YTD 16-8-1 +21.60%
3% BUFFALO -1
3% KANSAS CITY +7
3% DETROIT -3
3% CLEVELAND +3
3% WASHINGTON +2.5
3% TENNESSEE +7
3% SAN FRANCISCO -3 -120
3% GREEN BAY/WASHINGTON OVER 44
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 20.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
BALTIMORE -7 Denver 38.5
Denver got a big win at Tennessee last week but they were out gained badly in doing so. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 1.0ypr, out passed 5.6yps to 5.5yps and out gained overall, 5.5yppl to 4.3yppl. The only reason their yppl numbers were as high as they were was because they threw the ball 56 times. Baltimore came up big at Pittsburgh last week in their 17-14 victory. They were out rushed 3.1ypr to 2.6ypr but out passed a good Steelers secondary, 6.6yps to 5.5yps and out gained the Steelers overall, in part because they threw the ball 15 times more, 4.9yppl to 4.2yppl.
Denver averages 2.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.3yps against 6.6yps and 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. Baltimore averages 3.0ypr against 3.5ypr, 5.9yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.4yps against 6.2yps and 4.4yppl against 5.2yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Baltimore by nine points and predict only 29 points. Not much of an opinion from me here. I’ll trust the numbers and lean slightly towards Baltimore. BALTIMORE 20 DENVER 10
BUFFALO -1 Jacksonville 41
Jacksonville played terrific in their upset over Indianapolis last week, 31-28. They out rushed Indy 5.0ypr to 3.1ypr and matched Indy in the passing game, 7.4yps each. Overall, they were out gained 6.2yppl to 5.9yppl, also because Indy threw the ball 25 times more than Jacksonville. Buffalo was smoked at home by the Jets last week 38-14 but they did out average the Jets, 7.1ypr to 5.6ypr but allowed a whopping 273 yards rushing to their 114 yards rushing. They were dominated in the passing game, 6.6yps to 3.6yps. Overall they were out gained 5.9yppl to 4.8yppl.
Jacksonville averages 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 3.9ypr, 8.3yps against 7.3yps and 6.7yppl against 6.0yppl. Buffalo averages 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.5yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.0yps against 6.7yps and 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl.
Buffalo qualifies in a 67-14-4 situation. Numbers actually favor Buffalo by 2.5 points and predict about 40 points. Jacksonville has a defense that is well below average and going on the road is not a good idea with a poor defense. Dating back to last year, Jacksonville has now allowed at least 20 points in their last eight road games, including allowing an average of 29 points in those games with a median of 26.5 points. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played much better than Trent Edwards so the overall Buffalo offensive numbers with Fitzpatrick are better than indicated above. Overall, Buffalo brings the better offense and a much better defense. Combine that with value and a strong situation and Buffalo is ripe for a win. They aren’t a very good football team and won’t be after this win, but this is a good spot for them. BUFFALO 26 JACKSONVILLE 14
INDIANAPOLIS -7 Kansas City 45.5
When we last saw KC, they were throttling SF 31-10. They out rushed SF 5.3ypr to 2.9ypr and 207 to 43. They also out passed them 9.3yps to 4.4yps and out gained them overall, 6.9yppl to 4.0yppl. Indianapolis lost a tough game at Jacksonville last week. They were out rushed badly, 5.0ypr to 3.1ypr and were even throwing the ball with Jacksonville at 7.4yps each. Overall, they out gained Jacksonville, 6.2yppl to 5.9yppl, mostly because they passed the ball 25 times more than Jacksonville.
KC averages 4.6ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 3.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.7yps and 4.9yppl against 5.6yppl. Indianapolis averages 3.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 7.6yps against 7.0yps and 6.1yppl against 5.8yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.6yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl.
Kansas City qualifies in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 451-306-21, 381-239-18, 154-78-8 and 285-195-22. Indianapolis also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 122-51-8 and plays against them here. Numbers actually favor KC by four points and predict about 43 points. KC is rushing the ball better, average in passing and just slightly worse overall on offense. But, on defense, it is night and day between these two teams. Not only is Indy not playing well, they are also banged up on defense. If KC can control the clock with their running game against a poor Colts rushing defense, they will stay in this game with an underrated defense. KANSAS CITY 24 INDIANAPOLIS 20
DETROIT -3 St Louis 43
The Rams came up with their second win of the season last week and there wasn’t anything fluky about their win. They out rushed Seattle 3.1ypr to 2.7ypr, out passed them 5.8yps to 4.7yps and out gained them overall, 4.8yppl to 4.0yppl. Detroit came up short at Green Bay but had some chances in their 26-28 loss. They out rushed GB 5.9ypr to 4.4ypr but were out passed badly, 8.9yps to 5.4yps. They threw for 346 yards but they were all short passes. Overall, GB out gained Detroit 6.5yppl to 5.5yppl.
St. Louis averages 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.2yps against 6.3yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.9yps against 5.6yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. Detroit averages 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 5.5yps and 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.5ypr, 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl.
Lions qualify in a week five situation, which is 31-6-1 and also qualify in my turnover table, which is 410-261-18. Numbers favor Detroit by four points and predict about 38 points. Detroit has played a much tougher schedule in Chicago, Philadelphia, Minnesota and Green Bay and also played three of their first four games on the road. Meanwhile, the Rams have played Arizona, Oakland, Washington and Seattle (who has been blasted twice on the road this year) and have played three of their four games at home. Perfect spot for Detroit to show what they are made of, which is a much improved team that hasn’t seen the results in the standings because of the fierce competition they have faced. DETROIT 23 ST LOUIS 16
Atlanta -3 CLEVELAND 40.5
I went against Atlanta last week and that came played out much like I expected, meaning pretty evenly against SF. The Falcons were out rushed 3.5ypr to 3.4ypr and out passed SF 5.6yps to 5.5yps. Overall, the game was pretty even at 4.8yppl for Atlanta and 4.7yppl for SF. I also had Cleveland last week but was a little lucky to win that game as the Browns were beaten pretty badly at the line of scrimmage. Cleveland was out rushed 3.7ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed badly, 8.7yps to 5.8yps and out gained overall 7.1yppl to 4.5yppl. Even if you remove a 78 yard touchdown pass to Owens, Cincinnati still out gained Cleveland significantly.
Atlanta averages 3.9ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.5yps against 5.6yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. Cleveland averages 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 5.6yps and 5.2yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 3.6ypr, 7.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 4.9yppl.
Cleveland qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 134-69-5 and 157-86-11. Numbers favor Cleveland by four points and predict about 42 points. Atlanta hasn’t won by more than three points on the road and Cleveland has lost by two points at home and won by three points at home. Cleveland’s defensive numbers actually mirror the Saints defensive numbers, who Atlanta defeated by three points two weeks ago. On offense, Cleveland’s offensive numbers actually are slightly better than the Saints. Biggest question mark for me with Cleveland is their extremely poor pass defense, but Atlanta’s pass defense is almost as bad and their rush defense is worse. Cleveland brings the better offense and defense (with both defense’s being sub par). That along with value and situations make Cleveland a play. Jake Delhomme may start but yards per pass wise the two quarterbacks have been similar. Wallace throws fewer interception so I would not be upset if Senaca Wallace starts. CLEVELAND 24 ATLANTA 20
CINCINNATI -6.5 Tampa Bay 38
TB comes off their bye week after being dominated by Pittsburgh two weeks ago. They lost that game, 38-13 and were out rushed 6.3ypr to 3.6ypr, out passed 10.9yps to 5.6yps and out gained overall, 7.9yppl to 4.9yppl. Cincinnati came up short last week at Cleveland but they moved the ball easily on the Browns. They out rushed Cleveland 3.7ypr to 3.3ypr, out passed them 8.7yps to 5.8yps, thanks in part to a 78 yard touchdown pass to Owens. But, even with that pass removed, they dominated in the passing game. Overall, they out gained Cleveland 7.1yppl to 4.5yppl.
TB averages 3.4ypr against 3.3ypr, 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.6yps against 5.6yps and 5.7yppl against 4.9yppl. Cincinnati averages 3.3ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Numbers favor Cincinnati by nine points and predict about 43 points. Bengal’s have struggled on offense but so have the Bucs. But on defense, Cincinnati has been above average, while TB is well below average. I’ll trust the numbers. CINCINNATI 26 TAMPA BAY 17
CAROLINA -1 Chicago 33
The Bears were absolutely brutal last week. They were out rushed 5.9ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed 5.7yps to 1.4yps and out gained overall, 5.8yppl to 2.1yppl. They managed just 110 yards of offense and lost QB Jay Cutler to a concussion. Meanwhile, Carolina lost a game they had every chance to win at NO. They out rushed NO 5.1ypr to 4.2ypr, out passed them 5.5yps to 5.2yps and out gained NO overall, 5.3yppl to 4.8yppl.
Chicago averages 3.3ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.5yps against 5.8yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.2yps against 6.5yps and 5.3yppl against 5.6yppl. Carolina averages 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.8yps against 5.8yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 3.3ypr against 3.7ypr, 6.1yps against 6.4yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl.
Carolina qualifies in my turnover table, which is 410-261-18. Numbers favor Chicago by 2.5 points (with Cutler who will miss this game) and predict about 27 points. Steve Smith will miss this game for Carolina. With a rookie quarterback against a solid defense, it’s hard to take a team like Carolina, who is laying points, even with Todd Collins at quarterback for the Bears. I will still lean Carolina’s way because of the situation but I can’t make it a best bet. CAROLINA 16 CHICAGO 13
Green Bay -2.5 WASHINGTON 44
GB got away with a victory at home over lowly Detroit, 28-26 but it wasn’t easy. They were out rushed 5.9ypr to 4.4ypr but dominated in the passing game 8.9yps to 5.4yps. Overall, they out gained Detroit 6.5yppl to 5.5yppl. Detroit managed to throw for 346 yards but they were all short passes. Washington came to play and won a big road game at Philly last week. They out rushed Philly 4.8ypr to 4.4ypr, out passed them 6.2yps to 5.7yps and out gained Philly overall, 5.3yppl to 5.2yppl. The yppl numbers were only close because Philly passed the ball 23 more times.
GB averages 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.2ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.0yps against 5.7yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Washington averages 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.3yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.6ypr, 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl.
Washington qualifies in a home underdog momentum situation, which is 42-15-1. The Redskins also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 134-69-5, 451-306-21, 381-239-18, 157-86-11 and 478-305-21. Numbers favor Washington by two points and predict about 38 points. GB allows 5.2 yards per rush but a lot of that damage is because in three of their four games, the opposing quarterback has led the opponent in rushing – See Vick, Cutler and Hill. Take away those rushes and GB only allows 3.8 yards per rush. But, McNabb has the capability of running in this game as well. Clinton Portis will miss this game but back up Ryan Torain has better numbers in fewer attempts. The Packers are really banged up on defense having lost FS Morgan Burnett and ILB Nick Barnett, both probably for the year. GB was already down a linebacker because of an injury to Brandon Chillar and down a safety because Atari Bigby is on the PUP list. All this leads to a huge loss in depth on defense for GB. Washington certainly has the passing game this year to take advantage of the injuries in GB’s defense. While the numbers don’t support a high scoring game, I have to believe this will be high scoring. GB has allowed at least 20 points in three of their four games, including both road games. The Packers offense can still score points and they have scored at least 27 points in three of their four games. Washington’s passing defense is below average and GB can’t run the ball so they figure to wind up and throw plenty in this game. The over also serves as a bit of a hedge because GB will have to out score Washington to cover this game. Home dog and over are good wagers this week. WASHINGTON 30 GREEN BAY 27
HOUSTON -3 NY Giants 47.5
The Giants took all of their frustrations out on the Bears last week in their 17-3 victory. They out rushed Chicago, 5.9ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed them 5.7yps to 1.4yps and out gained the Bears overall, 5.8yppl to 2.1yppl. They limited Chicago to just 110 yards overall and knocked both, Jay Cutler and Todd Collins out of the game. Houston bounced back from their loss to Dallas by going to Oakland and getting a win, 31-24. Houston out rushed Oakland 6.9ypr to 4.7ypr and out passed them 6.6yps to 5.7yps. Overall, the Texans out gained the Raiders, 6.8yppl to 5.3yppl.
New York averages 4.7ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 3.8ypr, 4.7yps against 6.3yps and 4.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Houston averages 5.5ypr against 4.6ypr, 6.9yps against 6.4yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 3.9ypr, 7.8yps against 6.8yps and 6.5yppl against 5.7yppl.
The Giants qualify in a momentum situation, which is 70-31-2, while Houston qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 157-86-11. The Giants may be just 2-2 but their numbers are very solid from the line of scrimmage. Offensively, both teams are 0.7yppl better than the opposition they have played. Defensively, is another story, as the Giants pass defense has been terrific and Houston’s defense has been horrible. Numbers actually favor the Giants by 5.5 points and predict about 49 points. I’ll respect the rushing situation that favors Houston enough to stay off the Giants but I believe NY gets the SU win here. NY GIANTS 26 HOUSTON 23
New Orleans -6.5 ARIZONA 45
NO was lucky to escape with a home win over Carolina last week. They were out rushed 5.1ypr to 4.2ypr, out passed 5.5yps to 5.2yps and out gained overall, 5.3yppl to 4.8yppl. Arizona was throttled at SD as they were out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.4ypr, out passed badly, 10.9yps to 2.1yps and out gained overall, 7.0yppl to 2.4yppl. Their quarterbacks were sacked nine times in the game.
NO averages 3.1ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.5yps against 6.3yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.8yps against 5.4yps and 5.6yppl against 4.9yppl. Arizona averages 5.4ypr against 4.6ypr, 4.2yps against 5.6yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl.
Arizona qualifies in a bounce back situation this week, which is 51-21-1 and they also qualify in my turnover table, which is 410-261-18. Arizona also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 134-69-5. Numbers favor NO by just 1.5 points and predict about 47 points. The Saints haven’t won a game by more than five points this year and they rate out just slightly better than Arizona has a whole. But, Arizona will go with Max Hall at quarterback this week and it’s hard for me to back a rookie quarterback who is also missing his second and third best wide receiver options. The defense hasn’t been doing Arizona any favors this year either and when you match up the rookie against Drew Brees, it just doesn’t seem like a favorable match up. NO has plenty of injury situations on their side as well with both the offenses and defenses. I’ll respect all the solid situations enough to lean towards Arizona but can’t pull the trigger on this one. NEW ORLEANS 26 ARIZONA 23
San Diego -6 OAKLAND 44.5
SD rolled over Arizona in dominating fashion last week, 41-10. They out rushed Arizona 4.7ypr to 3.4ypr, out passed them 10.9yps to 2.1yps and out gained the Cardinals overall, 7.0yppl to 2.4yppl. They also sacked Arizona nine times. Oakland put up a fight at home against Houston but just didn’t have enough. They were out rushed 6.9ypr to 4.7ypr, out passed 6.6yps to 5.7yps and out gained overall, 6.8yppl to 5.3yppl.
SD averages 4.5ypr against 3.7ypr, 8.5yps against 6.8yps and 6.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.5yps against 5.3yps and 4.2yppl against 4.9yppl. Oakland averages 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.3yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.3ypr against 4.6ypr, 5.5yps against 5.5yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl.
Oakland qualifies in a week five situation, which is 44-9-2 but San Diego qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 513-372-23. Numbers favor SD by 16.5 points and predict about 49 points. The Chargers easily rate out as the best team in my ratings. They are 2-2 because their special teams failed them in their two other road games, allowing a kick return in KC and two kick returns in Seattle. They also allowed another significant kick return in KC that set up an additional touchdown for the Chiefs. Oakland also has some key injuries on both sides of the ball. SD has won six straight here in Oakland and seven of eight, of which six of those seven wins have been by at least six points with the exception of last year’s four point win. These games have totaled at least 40 points in eight of the nine games played here. Have to lean towards SD in this game. SAN DIEGO 30 OAKLAND 17
DALLAS -7 Tennessee 42
Tennessee lost at home to Denver last week but they played well from the line of scrimmage. They out rushed Denver 5.5ypr to 1.0ypr, out passed them 5.6yps to 5.5yps and out gained Denver overall, 5.5yppl to 4.3yppl. Those numbers could have been even worse but Denver threw the ball 26 more times to help prop up their overall yppl numbers. Dallas comes off their bye week and their first win of the season over a good Houston team. They were out rushed in that game, 5.6ypr to 3.7ypr but clearly out passed Houston, 9.5yps to 6.0yps. Overall, they out gained Houston, 6.8yppl to 5.9yppl.
Tennessee averages 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.8yps against 5.7yps and 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 3.7ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.0yps against 6.4yps and 4.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Dallas averages 3.5ypr against 3.6ypr, 7.2yps against 6.9yps and 5.9yppl against 5.7yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.5yps against 6.9yps and 5.5yppl against 5.9yppl.
Tennessee qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 706-562-44 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Tennessee by 1.5 points and predict about 34 points. I don’t understand the line in this game. Tennessee has almost as good an offense and clearly has the superior defense but is getting seven points. The Cowboys lone win came against a bad defense in Houston. They face, for a third time, a better than average defense in this game and haven’t defeated an above average defense yet this year. I think it’s worth the shot with the better defense getting plenty of points. DALLAS 17 TENNESSEE 16
SAN FRANCISCO -3 Philadelphia 38
Philly not only suffered a key home loss to divisional rival Washington, they lost Michael Vick in the process. They were out rushed 4.8ypr to 4.4ypr, out passed 6.2yps to 5.7yps and out gained overall, 5.3yppl to 5.2yppl. They threw 23 more times than Washington, which is the only reason the yppl numbers were even close. SF lost a heart breaker at Atlanta last week. They played well enough to win but a costly fumble in the end eventually did them in. They out rushed Atlanta 3.5ypr to 3.4ypr, were out passed 5.6yppl to 5.5yppl and overall, were slightly out gained 4.8yppl to 4.7yppl.
Philadelphia averages 5.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.9yps against 6.7yps and 5.8yppl against 5.8yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.9yps against 6.2yps and 4.6yppl against 5.3yppl. SF averages 3.8ypr against 3.8ypr, 5.5yps against 6.5yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl.
SF qualifies in a week five situation, which is 31-6-1 and they also qualify in my turnover table, which is 410-261-18. Philly would qualify in a couple of fundamental rushing situations but without Michael Vick, their rushing numbers would not qualify them. Numbers favor Philly but that is with Vick playing and he will miss this game as will Asante Samuel. Vick averaged 6.8yps but Kolb has only averaged 4.1yps. SF is clearly hungry for a victory and they have played well in a couple of games, including their only home game against NO. In that game, they out gained the Saints 7.2yppl to 4.5yppl but lost the turnover battle in that game, 0-4. I expect a tremendous amount of pressure from the 49ers defense on Kevin Kolb and if he doesn’t improve from what he has done this year, it will be a long day for him. He was terrible in his only other performance on the road in his career at Baltimore and I expect this to be a very tough game for him, especially given the weak Philly offensive line. SAN FRANCISCO 27 PHILADELPHIA 10
Maddux Sports
20 Unit GOY - Buffalo Bills -1
Denver/Baltimore Over 39.5
Kansas City +7
Cleveland +3
Tennessee +7
NY Jets -4
Gold Medal Club
25* Detroit
25* Indy
10* Arizona
10* Washington
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket - Broncos/ Ravens Over 38.5
Chiefs +7
Saints -6.5
Titians +7
The Boss
500% San Diego
300% Parlay New Orleans San Diego San Fran
200% KC
100% Cleve Under, Detroit Over, Jax Under
David Banks
Panthers -2.5
Bengals -6.5
Colts -7
Saints -6.5
Titans 7
49ers -3
Under 38
BIG AL
AFC GOM - Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Arizona Cardinals
Don Wallace Sports
4* San Francisco -3.5
Jim Feist
Inner Circle GOM - Redskins
High Roller - Bears Under
GOW - Buccaneers
Buccaneers Under
Rams
Browns
Tim Trushel
20* Buffalo
Arthur Ralph Sports
Super Pick - NO Saints
Blue Ribbon - Green Bay, SD Chargers
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
Buffalo
Giants/Texans Over
Green Bay
Baltimore
Minnesota
Brandon Lang
75 Dime GOY - Atlanta -3