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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, October 10,2010

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(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Dr Bob

2 Star Selection
BUFFALO (pick) 26 Jacksonville 17

The Bills are coming off a 24 point home loss to the Jets that drops them to 0-4 while the Jaguars are coming off a victory over last year’s AFC Champions. Those disparate results serve to give us some line value with the better team and it may be tough for the Jaguars to be fully focused on a winless team after last week’s upset win. Teams that win straight up as an underdog of 5 points or more against a division rival are just 31-72-2 ATS the next week if facing a team with a win percentage of .333 or less, so a letdown from the Jags can be expected. In addition to that, the Bills are likely to rebound from a horrible performance as they have likely hit bottom. Teams with losing spread records (after at least 4 games) that extend a losing streak with a loss of 20 points or more are 57% plays the next week as long as they’re not favored by more than 3 points, including 154-79-4 ATS if their opponent is a non-division foe (division opponents tend to get up the slumping team while non-division opponents are less likely to take the game seriously). Not only do we have some good situations favoring Buffalo but the Bills are also the better team. Buffalo’s offense is 0.7 yards per play worse than average for the season (4.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), but they’ve been better with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback the last two weeks, averaging 6.0 yppl in those two games against the Patriots and Jets. Original starting quarterback Trent Edwards, now Jacksonville’s backup, was horrible in the first two games (just 3.0 yards per pass play) and Fitzpatrick has averaged 5.4 yppp in two seasons with the Bills (5.9 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average QB). If I plug in 5.4 yppp for Buffalo instead of the 4.5 yppp compensated number that was dragged down by Edwards’ horrible two games then I rate the Bills at 0.3 yppl worse than average. Even without an adjustment the Bills’ offense would still be better than a Jaguars’ defense that’s given up 6.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team. I project the Bills at 6.0 yppl in this game.

Buffalo’s defense allowed 273 rushing yards at 5.6 ypr last week to the Jets with run stuffing DT Marcus Stroud sidelined with an injury, but Stroud practiced this week and will be back in the lineup to help the run defense. Overall, the Bills have been average defensively in allowing 5.8 yppl to good offensive teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Jacksonville’s offense played well last week against a sub-par Colts’ defense, bt the Jags have averaged only 4.8 yppl for the season against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. The Bills also have better special teams and will certainly be hungry for a win in a game that they know they can win. My math favors the Bills by 6 points and I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ or less.

3 Star Selection
Kansas City (+7) 22 INDIANAPOLIS 21

The Chiefs are the NFL’s only unbeaten team and apparently there are those that are not believers. But, there is nothing fluky about Kansas City’s performance so far this season, as the Chiefs have excellent coordinators on both sides of the football in Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel and a ton of young talent. Kansas City’s offense is led by backs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, who have combined for 455 rushing yards at 5.3 ypr. Charles is particularly impressive, as he’s averaged an incredible 5.9 ypr on 291 career runs, and the Chiefs’ run attack should have no trouble moving the ball on the ground against a bad Colts’ run defense that’s allowed 150 yards at 5.1 ypr this season. Matt Cassell is still a below average quarterback (6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback), but the Colts have been just average defending the pass this season (6.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.8 yppp against an average defensive team). My math model calls for a solid 337 yards at 5.5 yppl for the Chiefs in this game even after replacing Charles’ 7.0 ypr this year with his career average of 5.9 ypr (he can’t be expected to continue to run for 7.0 ypr).

The Kansas City defense is loaded with high draft picks that are starting to reach their potential and they have a coordinator in Crennel with a lot of NFL success running defenses (not as much as a head coach). Crennel’s defense has given up just 5.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, so they should be able to slow down a one dimensional Colts’ attack (just 3.4 ypr) that is 0.7 yppl better than average (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl). These teams are actually pretty even from the line of scrimmage, but Kansas City has better special teams and my math model calls for a tie based on this year’s stats for both teams. My ratings, which still incorporate my initial team ratings, favor the Colts by only 4 points and Kansas City applies to a very good 101-44-4 ATS statistical match up indicator. The Colts are coming off a loss last week at Jacksonville and I’m sure they’d love to get the win here, but Indy is actually much better after a win than they are after a loss (just 5-11 ATS in regular season games the week after a loss since 2004). Teams that have been bad, like the Chiefs have in recent years, have a hard time changing people’s perception of them, which leads to good line value for those that see the truth. Teams that start the season 3-0, that were a .500 or less team the previous season, are 15-2-1 ATS in game 4 if they are an underdog of 3 points or more (since 1988) and all unbeaten teams (3-0 or better) getting 7 points or more are 10-2 ATS since 1980 (including 7-1 in game 4). I’ll take Kansas City in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +6 points.

2 Star Selection
CLEVELAND (+3.0) 26 Atlanta 20

I used Cleveland as a Strong Opinion last week on the basis of a 111-42-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator and that same indicator (now 113-43-5 ATS) applies to the Browns again. This time I’ll use Cleveland as a Best Bet against an overrated Falcons team. Atlanta is a below average team on both sides of the ball, as the Falcons have averaged just 5.0 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while allowing 5.8 yppl (to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team). Atlanta has used a +5 turnover margin to get to 3-1 instead of being 1-3 as they should be. Cleveland is 1-3, but the Browns have been a bit better than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and only 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). Cleveland has been better on offense and better on defense than the Falcons have been so far this season and my ratings favor the Browns by 2 points while using this year’s stats only would favor the Browns by 3 ½ points even after I downgraded Cleveland’s offense (and upped their likelihood of turning the ball over) with Jake Delhomme likely coming back this week after missing the last 3 games. I’d prefer to have Seneca Wallace at quarterback given how well he’s played and his much loser career interception rate, but I’ll assume Delhomme will start and I like the Browns anyway. In addition to some line value the Browns apply in that 113-43-5 ATS statistical indicator as well as a 64-19-6 ATS week 5 angle. I’ll take Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +3 ½ points (at -115 or better).

2 Star Selection
WASHINGTON (+2.5) 27 Green Bay 21

Green Bay is dealing with a lot of injuries to key players, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and they’re ripe for an upset by a solid Redskins team in a good situation. Washington’s upset win at Philadelphia last week sets them up in a very good 80-31-2 ATS situation while Green Bay applies to a negative 68-140-2 ATS situation that also applied to them in their loss at Chicago two weeks ago. Washington also applies to a very good 113-43-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is working well so far this season. Green Bay’s thin defense gave up 431 yars at 5.5 yppl and 26 points to the Lions last week and Washington’s good offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) should expose the backups that have been forced into the lineup. Green Bay is 0.1 yppl better than average defensively for the season, but they’re 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively the last two weeks as players started to get injured. The Packers will move the ball well also, as they rate at 0.8 yppl better than average offensively while the Redskins are 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense, but these teams are about even from the line of scrimmage given Green Bay’s defensive injuries. I know that Washington RB Clinton Portis is out, but that’s been a positive in recent years when he’s missed time (just 4.0 ypr the last two seasons). My math model favors Washington by 1 ½ points and my ratings favor Green Bay by just 1 ½ points so the line value appears to be on the side of the Redskins while the technical analysis is clearly in Washington’s favor. I’ll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 at -120 odds or better.

 
Posted : October 10, 2010 11:54 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

1. Asa 2 4- cn, 3-buff
2. Ats 7-cn, 6-gb, 4-hou, sd, jax
3. Ben burns 8 10-sd under, dall
4. Big money 3t sf
5. Blazer 3-sd, kc
6. Carolina sports 11 7-goy: Balt, 3-cn, chi
8. Dr. Bob 3- kc, 2-buff, clev, wash
9. Gameday 1 3- cn, 2-atl, wash
10. Inside info 3-kc, 1-sd
11. Joe d 5 20-hou, 15-sf
12.kelso 50-no, 10-atl, chi, chi under, 3-st l, jax, phil
13. Lt profits 4-stl, 2-jax, sd
14. Lenny stevens 20-gb, balt, 10-ariz phil
15. Million club 3t 2- jax under
16. Nationwide (goldst) 12 super 7: Sf, top: St l, reg: Den, atl
17. Neri 3-kc, clev, sd
18. Northcoast 6t 31/2-hou, 3-no, chi
19. Pointwise
20. Preferred 4-tn, 3-kc
21. Private players 5-kc, no, 4-chi, sd, 3-gb, sf
22. Pure lock 9t tb
24.underdog 9t tenn
25. Wildcat 10-tenn, 7-sd, 5-sf
ness 6t 10: Indy, st l over, 9-sf, 8-det, buff, caro, balt

 
Posted : October 10, 2010 11:57 am
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