Doc's Sports
5 Unit Play. Take Under 41 in Atlanta @ San Francisco
The 49ers have been one of the most surprising teams in the NFL, currently sitting a 3-1 and just a hail mary pass away from being 4-0. Much of the success of the 49ers can be attributed to a strong physical defense led by their head coach Mike Singletary. They have allowed just 13.5 points per game and held two of their opponents under 11 points. Atlanta will enter with a strong running game led by Michael Turner and that also bodes well for playing the under, since the clock will keep running for most of the game. I expect neither team to reach the 20s in scoring and we will not worry who comes out on top in this game by a field goal. Instead we will easily collect with the under. San Francisco 17, Atlanta 14.
4 Unit Play. Take Carolina -3½ over Washington The Panthers have yet to win a game in 2009, but are coming off a much needed bye week and I expect them to right the ship this Sunday hosting the Redskins. The Redskins have played a very easy schedule thus far and are only 2-2 including a loss to the Detroit Lions. QB Delhomme has been terrible thus far, but I still think he has more ability then QB Campbell. Washington is just 1-4 ATS in their last six road games (1 tie) and failed to put away three of the worst teams in the league (St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay) the last three weeks. The now face a minor step up in class, as the Panthers finally put it together and play a complete game for 60 minutes. Carolina 24, Washington 16.
4 Unit Play. Take Seattle -1 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars will make a long cross country flight to take on the Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest Sunday at Qwest Field in Seattle, WA. The Hawks have been in a bit of disarray again this season with the injury to QB Matt Hasselbeck and as of this writing he is questionable to play on Sunday. Either way, the Hawks will win and move to 2-3 on the 2009 season. Jacksonville has not traveled this far since 2005 and Qwest Field is one of the noisiest venues in the entire league. The Hawks put pressure on QB David Garrard and I am not sold on the Jags receivers with their ability to beat teams deep. Seattle wins in a match-up of similar team where home field is the major deciding factor. Seattle 27, Jacksonville 17. Note: Line my change on this game with QB Hasselbeck's status, we still recommend the pick.
4 Unit Play. Take Over 46 in Indianapolis @ Tennessee
One might figure that the Colts would be favored by more points in this game, but the Titans still warrant respect even though they enter this game at 0-4. Much of this is due to the fact that the Titans are not same team on defense with the loss of Albert Haynesworth. They are giving up 27 points per game and that does not bode well when playing the high-powered Indianapolis Colts led by All-Pro QB Peyton Manning. The Colts are averaging 26 ½ points and will enter this one at LP Field with an unblemished 4-0 record. This is a primetime game and I do not expect the Titans to get blown out and thus in order for them to keep pace, they must be able to match the scoring from Manning and company. They do and thus this one goes easily over the posted number. Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 24.
Strong Opinion Play:
Take St. Louis +10 over Minnesota
Strike Point Sports
5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota -10 over St. Louis
The way the Rams have played this year, this is a pretty reasonable line for the Vikings, especially when also considering how they have looked with their 4-0 start. St. Louis can't score enough in my mind to keep this under a double digit victory for Minnesota. Expect more sacks from the Vikings front four and for the Minnesota offense to put up plenty of points to win going away.
2-Unit Play. Take Carolina -3.5 over Washington
If there was ever a spot where the Panthers really come to play, I see it being here. Carolina comes in after their bye week, and no doubt their 0-3 start to the season calls for a win here. Hopefully they straightened out some of their issues, and I would be super surprised if Carolina doesn't pound their lethal duo on the ground. They know Delhomme is a mess, but if they can get 20 touches for each DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who both should be rested and ready to run after two weeks off, then good things should come of it. And we still see Jason Campbell struggling, so some short fields aren't out of the question either. We go with the Panthers at home, as they search for their first win of the season.
3-Unit Play. Take New England -3 over Denver
After fading the Broncos the first couple of weeks, I can honestly say I have been impressed by what Denver has done. However I think this week they fall off a bit and falter against Tom Brady. I mean, Denver can't continue to play this flawlessly, so here we look for them to give up some points and get an 'L'. New England comes off a nice victory over Baltimore and they score a second win in as many weeks against a team without a loss.
3-Unit Play. Take Indianapolis -3.5 over Tennessee
Right now there isn't anyone who can slow Peyton Manning, and certainly not a Titans defense that was torn apart by David Gerrard and the Jags. Right now we back the team with it all going in the right direction against a team that very well could have started to give up on themselves. Indy continues to play well and puts Tennessee at 0-5.
2-Unit Play. Take New York Jets -1.5 over Miami
The Jets should get a major boost with Braylon Edwards, but more so I think Mark Sanchez will bounce back with another efficient effort and work towards getting his team back in the win column. After some bad turnovers New York will dial back the plays and should focus on getting Thomas Jones and Leon Washington set up with the running game. The ground attack and more defense will be enough on Monday night.
Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 16-10 +15.0%
3% CAROLINA –3.5
3% BALTIMORE –8.5
3% SAN FRANCISCO –2.5
3% DENVER +3
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3
Minnesota -10 ST LOUIS 41
The Rams lost badly at SF last week, 35-0, and were terrible on offense, gaining just 2.8yps and 3.1yppl. They held a below average SF offense to reasonable numbers, allowing just 3.3ypr, 4.7yps and 4.0yppl. Minnesota defeated GB by seven but they were comfortably ahead most of the game. They were out gained by GB 4.8ypr to 2.1ypr but out passed GB 8.5yps to 7.6yps and out gained overall 6.8yppl to 5.4yppl. The Vikings are a below average team from the line of scrimmage, gaining just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl overall. They allow 5.9yps against 5.4yps and 5.0yppl against 4.8yppl. Fortunately for Minnesota, the Rams are much worse, although they have averaged 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr they average just 4.2yps against 5.9yps and 4.3yppl against 5.1yppl. The pass defense has been horrible, allowing 7.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl overall. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Minnesota by 9.5 points and predict about 40 points. I think the jury is still out on Minnesota but they have enough talent to beat the bad teams easily. Certainly could be a let down spot for Minnesota after two big wins and Baltimore on deck but their talent alone should be enough to win easily. Vikings have already defeated two similar teams (Cleveland and Detroit) by 14 points each on the road and Rams lost by 19 points at home to GB. The Rams simply don’t have a passing game and that will make it tough to stay in this game, short of turnovers. MINNESOTA 30 ST LOUIS 13
Dallas -8 KANSAS CITY 42.5
Not only did Dallas lose at Denver last week but they were beaten badly at the line of scrimmage. Dallas was out rushed 4.6ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed 6.9yps to 5.1yps and out gained overall 5.9yppl to 4.4yppl. KC didn’t do any better at home against the Giants, losing 27-16 and being out passed 7.2yps to 2.4yps and 6.0yppl to 3.1yppl. The Dallas offense still sports solid numbers, averaging 6.0ypr against 4.7ypr, 6.8yps against 5.4yps and 6.4yppl against 5.1yppl. But the defense has been very bad, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.0yppl against 5.4yppl. KC struggles throwing the ball, averaging just 4.6yps against 5.6yps and 4.2yppl against 4.8yppl. They allow 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 8 points and predict about 49 points. KC totaled at least 43 points in every home game last year except their game against Oakland. They have done the same thing this year, albeit only two home games, but totaled 43 points against the Giants and just 23 against the Raiders. The Raiders aren’t capable of scoring many points while the better teams score plenty against KC and then KC gets some garbage scores at the end. There are a few injuries with Dallas this week, Williams and Jones, that will keep me off the over but I will lean that way. DALLAS 30 KANSAS CITY 20
CAROLINA -3.5 Washington 37.5
Carolina comes off a bye week seeking their first win of the year. Washington scraped by TB last week but wasn’t very impressive in doing so. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 3.6ypr but out passed TB 6.1yps to 4.0yps and out gained TB 4.6yppl to 4.2yppl. Take away a 59 yard touchdown pass to Santana Moss and they averaged just 3.9yps and 3.7yppl. Carolina has been far from impressive this year, averaging just 4.9yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.4ypr against 4.8ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.7yps and 5.6yppl against 5.9yppl. The Redskins average just 3.9ypr against 4.8ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl. The defense allows 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl. Carolina qualifies in my turnover table, which is 396-252-22. Numbers favor Carolina by two points before accounting for the situation. They also predict about 25 points. Washington has played two road games this year. They lost by six at NY against the Giants but got a late score to make that game closer than it was. They lost at Detroit by five points. They also struggled to win by two and three points at home against St. Louis and Tampa Bay, two of the worse teams in the league. If Carolina was ever going to get a win, this is the time to do it. They’ve had a bye week to prepare and looked much better in their loss at Dallas the week before the bye. Washington has scored more than 17 points in just one of their last nine games. CAROLINA 20 WASHINGTON 10
PHILADELPHIA -15 Tampa Bay 42.5
TB looked better last week in their close loss at Washington. Unfortunately it was just Washington but nonetheless it was an improvement for them. They were out gained 6.1yps to 4.0yps but take away a 59 yard pass to Santana Moss and those numbers are just 3.9yps. They also were out gained 4.6yppl to 4.2yppl but again, take away that Moss pass and the numbers are just 3.7yppl. They did out rush Washington 4.3ypr to 3.6ypr. Philly comes off their bye week, which saw them destroy KC the week before the bye. TB averages just 4.3ypr against 4.8ypr, 5.0yps against 5.5yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 7.8yps against 6.7yps and 6.1yppl against 5.8yppl. Philly averages 6.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has not missed a beat after the passing of Jim Johnson. They allow just 3.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.8yps against 5.7yps and 4.2yppl against 5.1yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Philly by 19.5 points and predict about 51 points. You can almost write down 27-30 points for Philly for most of their home games. TB should be able to get some garbage scores in the end to push this game over the total. I’ll lay off the total because of the below average TB offense along with an unknown quarterback but I think the over is the best play here. PHILADELPHIA 34 TAMPA BAY 17
NY GIANTS -15 Oakland 38
Another high spread game between the Raiders and Giants. Giants looked solid last week at KC, winning their third straight road game. They dominated KC, out rushing them 4.7ypr to 4.2ypr, 7.2yps to 2.4yps and 6.0yppl to 3.1yppl. The Raiders, were the Raiders, as they were blown out in Houston and couldn’t muster any offense at all against a terrible Houston defense. They were out rushed 2.9ypr to 2.0ypr, out passed 8.0yps to 3.4yps and out gained overall 4.9yppl to 2.9yppl. Giants are uncharacteristically averaging just 4.2ypr against 4.5ypr and allowing 5.5ypr against 4.5ypr. But, they are averaging 7.7yps against 6.8yps and 5.9yppl against 5.7yppl overall. They allow just 3.8yps against 5.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. The Raiders average just 3.5ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.1yps against 6.1yps and 3.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl so the defense has been decent. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Giants by 18 and predict about 36 points. I see no reason to deviate from the numbers although Eli Manning is questionable this week. NY GIANTS 27 OAKLAND 9
BUFFALO -6 Cleveland 40.5
Buffalo lost 38-10 last week at Miami. It was a typical Miami game. They ran 24 more plays than Buffalo and controlled the ball for almost 15 minutes more than Buffalo. The Bills were out rushed 5.6ypr to 2.7ypr and 250 yards to 46 yards. They did hold Miami to just 86 yards passing at 3.1yps and averaged 5.0yps themselves. Overall they were out gained 4.6yppl to 4.2yppl. Cleveland played a competitive game against Cincinnati but lost 23-20 in OT. They were out rushed 5.1yppl to 4.4yppl and out gained overall 4.9yppl to 4.8yppl. For the season, Buffalo averages 4.8ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.4yps against 6.5yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl overall. They allow 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Cleveland averages just 4.5yps against 5.8yps and 4.2yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 5.4ypr against 4.6ypr and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl overall. Buffalo qualifies in a couple of similar negative situations based on their poor defensive performance last week, which are 88-42-4 and 78-33-2 and play against them here. But, Buffalo also qualifies in a couple of week five do or die situations, which are 30-4-1 and 43-9-2. Buffalo also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 451-292-21. Numbers favor Buffalo by 9.5 points and predict about 46 points. I will lean with Buffalo here and would consider them if it weren’t for the situations playing against them. BUFFALO 27 CLEVELAND 20
BALTIMORE -8.5 Cincinnati 42
Cincinnati disappointed last week in their road win at Cleveland, 23-20 in OT. They slightly out gained Cleveland 4.9yppl to 4.8yppl, which did include out rushing them 5.1ypr to 4.4ypr. Baltimore lost at NE but had chances to win the game. They out rushed NE 116-85 and 6.8ypr to 2.8ypr but were out passed 6.7yps to 5.0yps. Overall they out gained NE 5.5yppl to 4.9yppl. Baltimore has been just above average this year. They average 5.0ypr against 4.7ypr and 6.7yps against 6.4yps for a total of 6.0yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense they are allowing just 2.6ypr against 3.5ypr but 6.7yps against 5.7yps and 5.1yppl against 4.9yppl, which is unusual for their defense. Cincinnati has rushed the ball well this year, averaging 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr but average just 5.4yps against 5.8yps and 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl overall. They allow just 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl so they have been average on defense. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 179-94-13. Numbers favor Baltimore by 8.5 points and predict about 49 points. Baltimore didn’t allow more than 13 points in any one home game last year. This year they have allowed 24 to KC and just three to Cleveland. In the KC game they dominated that game but a turnover returned for a touchdown and another one returned inside the 10 yard line set up 14 points for KC. Cincinnati is much better than last year with Palmer back at quarterback but if they can’t score more than 13 points, it will be tough for them to cover this game. They struggled badly at home against Pittsburgh before rallying with 14 points in the fourth quarter and struggled again last week at Cleveland before putting up nine points in the fourth quarter and OT. Baltimore will score points. That’s what they do now. They should get to 30+ points, which would mean Cincinnati would need to score at least 23 or so to cover this spread. I don’t think they can do that. BALTIMORE 33 CINCINNATI 17
Pittsburgh -10.5 DETROIT 44
Detroit lost big last week at Chicago and were out rushed 7.6ypr to 3.5ypr but did out pass the Bears 5.9yps to 4.2yps. Overall, they were out gained 5.5yppl to 5.1yppl. For Chicago, 27 of their 48 points came on drives of 35 yards or less and 41 of their 48 points came on drives of 48 yards or less, meaning most of those drives they began on Detroit’s side of the field. Pittsburgh jumped out to a huge lead over SD and then held on in the end to win by ten. They out rushed SD 4.9ypr to 2.0ypr and out passed them 8.6yps to 6.0yps for a total of 6.8yppl to 5.3yppl. For the season, Detroit averages just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr and 4.6yppl against 4.9yppl. The defense still has major issues, allowing 5.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.6yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Pittsburgh has been great throwing the ball, averaging 7.3yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl overall. The defense is once again very solid, allowing just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Detroit qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 49-19-1. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 10.5 points and predict about 48 points. Matthew Stafford will probably miss this game. Detroit is a better team this year but still not very good. They struggled to stay close in games at home last year. I’ll lean their way simply because of the situation and this is a lot of points but it’s a weak lean at best. PITTSBURGH 27 DETROIT 21
SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 Atlanta 41
SF beat up on the Rams last week 35-0. In typical SF fashion, the numbers weren’t necessarily impressive but they got the win. They out passed the Rams 4.7yps to 2.8yps and 4.0yppl to 3.1yppl. As usual, the defense was outstanding and the offense was below average. Atlanta comes off their bye week, where they were blown out at NE the week before the bye. Atlanta is a very overrated team for me right now. They average just 3.4ypr against 4.4ypr but 6.8yps against 6.4yps for a total offense of 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense, which has been gutted, is not performing very well. They are allowing 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.2yps against 5.2yps and 5.6yppl against 4.9yppl. The SF numbers are below average but still much better than Atlanta. They average just 5.2yps against 6.6yps and 4.6yppl against 5.5yppl. But, on defense they are allowing just 3.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.1yps against 5.4yps and 4.4yppl against 4.8yppl. SF qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 82-38-7. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 541-412-30 and 451-292-21. Atlanta does qualify in my turnover table, which is 396-252-22. Numbers favor SF by eight points and predict about 38 points. With Mike Singletary at the helm, SF has now ripped off five straight wins at home. Good value, laying a short number at home, solid situations in their favor with a stout defense playing a soft defense makes this a play on the home team. SAN FRANCISCO 23 ATLANTA 13
New England -3 DENVER 41
NE got by Baltimore last week but didn’t out play the Ravens. They were out rushed 6.8ypr to 2.8ypr but did out pass them 6.7yps to 5.0yps. Overall NE was out gained 5.5yppl to 4.9yppl. Not only did Denver defeat Dallas but they destroyed them from the line of scrimmage. They out rushed a terrific Dallas rushing game 4.6ypr to 3.0ypr and out passed them 6.9yps to 5.1yps for a total of 5.9yppl to 4.4yppl. NE is an average team from the line of scrimmage. They can’t run the ball, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr (no Fred Taylor for a while either) but are averaging 6.2yps against 5.7yps. Overall, they average 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense they allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl overall. Denver’s numbers have been outstanding. They average 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr and 7.1yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow just 3.2ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.6yps against 5.2yps and 4.0yppl against 4.9yppl. I can’t remember ever seeing a defense that was as bad as it was last year make such a dramatic change in one season. The fact they held one of the best offenses in the league last week to just 10 points and 4.4yppl speaks volumes about how good this defense is playing. Denver qualifies in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 125-64-5, 541-412-30, 78-31-3 and 147-76-7. Numbers favor Denver by 11.5 points and predict about 27 points. NE has played one game on the road this year and couldn’t muster any offense in that game as they lost at the Jets 16-9. The Jets defense performs better against the pass than Denver’s but not as good against the rush. But, both are just about equal. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense is much better than the Jets. Too much value to pass up with Denver here. Unlike last week when I was on Denver, I could expect mental errors from Dallas, I won’t get that from NE this week but Denver is good enough to win this game. DENVER 20 NEW ENGLAND 12
ARIZONA -5.5 Houston 50.5
Arizona comes off their bye week after getting blistered by the Colts the week before their bye. Houston comes off a blowout win over hapless Oakland last week. Houston is still struggling running the ball as they averaged just 2.9ypr but did hold Oakland to 2.0ypr. The Texans averaged 8.0yps to just 3.4yps for Oakland and out gained the Raiders 4.9yppl to 2.9yppl. Arizona has faced three good teams this year in SF, Jacksonville and Indy. They average just 3.2ypr against 3.7ypr but 6.0yps against 5.6yps and 5.2yppl against 4.9yppl overall. On defense they have done very well against the rush, allowing just 3.1ypr against 4.2ypr but allow 7.2yps against 7.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.8yppl overall. Houston also can’t rush the ball, averaging just 3.2ypr against 3.7ypr but they do average 7.3yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl overall. The defense has been terrible again as they allow 5.4ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.3yps against 5.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Arizona qualifies in the same situation Pittsburgh qualified in last week, which is 65-18-4 and is 42-4-3 since 1995. Based on their win last week, Houston qualifies in a momentum situation, which is 68-29-2. Arizona also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 674-544-42 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Arizona by six points and predict about 50 points. This is the perfect type of match up I look for in an over but I was surprised to see my numbers only predict 50 points in this game, which puts it right at the numbers. In Houston’s last 11 games as road dogs of five or more points, they have averaged 52.8 total points in those games. So when installed as a decent size road dog, their games have been very high scoring. They have also averaged losing those games by 9.5 points. But, to be fair, over their last five games in that situation, they have averaged losing by just two points. Numbers are about right so I will pass but should be an entertaining game. ARIZONA 28 HOUSTON 21
SEATTLE NL Jacksonville
Jacksonville really took it to Tennessee last week and led that game 27-3 at halftime on their way to an easy 37-17 win. They out passed Tennessee 7.8yps to 5.9yps and out gained them overall 6.4yppl to 5.7yppl. For Jacksonville, 31 of their 37 points came on drives of 48 yards or less so they started a lot of drives in Tennessee territory. Seattle was crushed at Indy last week 34-17 in a game that wasn’t even that close. They were out rushed 3.5ypr to 2.6ypr, out passed 8.6yps to 4.6yps and 6.8yppl to 4.0yppl overall. Jacksonville has been a surprisingly good team this year. They average 4.9ypr against 3.9ypr and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They are average, at best, on defense allowing 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl. Seattle has lost three in a row, which coincides with Matt Hasselbeck getting hurt. He may return this week but they also have numerous other injuries. Seattle averages 4.9yppl against 4.8yppl but is allowing 5.1ypr against 3.9ypr and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl overall. To be fair, they allowed Frank Gore 159 yards rushing on two plays. If you remove those two plays, the numbers are much better and they are more of an average team. They would then allow only 3.6ypr and 5.2yppl. Seattle qualifies in a couple of week five do or die situations, which are 30-4-4 and 43-9-2. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 42 points. There is no line on this game yet. It appears it will probably be around a pick ‘em but without knowing the line, it’s hard to give an opinion. I will definitely lean Seattle’s way. SEATTLE 24 JACKSONVILLE 17
Indianapolis -3.5 TENNESSEE 45.5
Tennessee was down 27-3 last week before they knew what hit them. I expected Tennessee to play with more passion last week but it never happened. They were out passed 7.8yps to 5.9yps and out gained overall 6.4yppl to 5.7yppl. Jacksonville did score 31 of their 37 points on drives of 48 yards or less so many of their drives did start in Tennessee territory but I was very disappointed with the lack of effort from a Jeff Fisher coached team. Meanwhile, Indy was destroying Seattle at home 34-17 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. Indy out gained Seattle 3.5ypr to 2.6ypr, 8.6yps to 4.6yps and 6.8yppl to 4.0yppl. Currently I have Indy rated as my top team. They still don’t run the ball well, averaging just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but average a whopping 9.5yps against 7.0yps and 7.1yppl against 5.8yppl. The defense, despite all the injuries, has been outstanding. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 4.7yps against 5.6yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. Tennessee’s numbers aren’t terrible and other than last week, they have played in close games, where they could be 3-1 on the year with the right breaks. They average 5.5ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. The rush defense has been terrific, allowing just 2.8ypr against 4.0ypr but Indy won’t be trying to rush the ball against them. They will throw and unfortunately for Tennessee, that has been their weakness this year, allowing 7.1yps against 6.7yps. Overall they allow just 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. Tennessee qualifies in a week five do or die situation, which is 30-4-1. They also qualify in a blowout loss bounce back situation, which is 73-33-1. And, they qualify in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 125-64-5, 541-412-30 and 451-292-21. Unfortunately, this is not a good match up for them because they can’t defend the pass and I’m simply not getting enough points here. Numbers favor Indy by nine points and predict about 46 points. I would have to be getting at least six points to consider Tennessee. Peyton Manning just seems to find a way to win games and laying such a short number makes it hard for me to take Tennessee. Tennessee is 7-2 as a home dog in their last nine games. Even though it appeared they quit last week, I expect them to be fired up for this game against a quality opponent. The problem is if they get down, will they quit again. Indy was lucky to escape Miami with a win earlier this year because Miami controlled the clock and ran all over Indy but the following week Indy destroyed Arizona on the road so Indy can certainly compete on the road. And, even in that Miami game, they found a way to win that game by four points, which would be a cover here as well. I’ll lean Tennessee’s way because of the situations, but can’t back them here unless I get six points or more. Tennessee has been competitive here recently against Indy winning two of three with the lone loss by just two points. INDIANAPOLIS 27 TENNESSEE 24
NY Jets -2 MIAMI 36.5
Much like the Tennessee game, the situations in this game point towards Miami but the fundamentals point towards the Jets. The Jets lost at NO last week as I expected and were out gained 5.9yps to 3.6yps and 5.4yppl to 4.2yppl. That’s exactly the way I expected that game to go. The Jets can’t throw the ball and I expected NO to be able to shut down their passing game and also be able to move the ball through the air. Miami throttled a lost Buffalo team, 38-10, feasting off of three Bills turnovers and doing what they do best and that is run the ball. They ran for 250 yards at 5.6ypr while limiting Buffalo to just 46 yards rushing at 2.7ypr. In typical Miami fashion, they averaged just 3.1yps while Buffalo averaged 5.0yps. Overall they out gained the Bills 4.6yppl to 4.2yppl. Miami controlled the clock for 37 of 60 minutes in the game. The Jets offense is well below average this year. They average just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.6yps against 6.1yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense has been stellar, allowing just 4.6yps against 6.6yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They also get Calvin Pace back from suspension this week. Miami averages 5.0ypr against 4.6ypr but just 4.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl overall. The rush defense has been very good, allowing just 2.9ypr against 3.7ypr and 5.7yppl against 5.9yppl overall. Miami qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 31-8-0. They also qualify in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 125-64-5, 541-412-30 and 451-292-21. Numbers favor the Jets by four points and predict about 23 points. The Jets have won seven of the past ten games played here, including three in a row and two of the three losses were by two and four points. A loss would not give them the cover here obviously but they have fared very well in Miami. I have a hard time taking Miami here, knowing I am not getting enough points, knowing Miami can’t throw the ball if their life depended on it (especially with a young qb) and knowing how good the Jets defense is. The Jets were just 1-3 as a road favorite last year but that lone win came here in Miami. Meanwhile, Miami was just 1-3 as a home dog last year and is 0-1 this year. Under is probably the best play here. NY JETS 14 MIAMI 13
igz1 sports
3* San Fran -2.5
Tony George
CAR -3.5 vs WAS
Have no doubts Tampa Bay has no offense and no QB and Washington barely eaked out a win last week. Carolina HUNGRY for a win and off a bad loss at Dallas, they are well rested. Carolinas defense should show multiple blitz schemes against QB Campbell here and the run game of Carolina should prove difficult for Washibngtons defense, which is respectable. Remember schedule is key, Washington has played really no one, while Carolina has played better teams and really blew a Monday Night game at Dallas. Better QB (barely), better Running game, equal defense, better coach all in favor of Panthers in a MUST WIN SCENARIO..at home. In Washingtons last 12 games, they have had 1 cover!! Carolina by 10.
Play 2 Units..Top Play
NEP -3 vs DEN
Yes Denvers defense real deal on stats, but Cincy, Cleveland, Oakland not top contenders and Dallas cannot get out of their own way and moved chains against them all day long. Dallas had more yards and first downs last week in a loss. The Pats at home, against Denvers head coach who used to be a Patriot coach will have Bellichek wanting the win here big time, will be fo‹cused after big time win against Baltrimore where they did what they wanted on offense against a better defense. Brady getting better every week, offense starting to click and Denver attack on offense on the road is suspect here. Everyone thinks Denver will cover this and some think outright...beating a iffy Dallas team at home does little to boost the fact New England is getting it together and with Denver at 4-0, they have the Pats full attention.
Play 1 Unit on New England
ATL +2.5 vs SFX
Have a sneaky feeeling here that Niners are good, but not that good. They… have beaten up some weak sisters here and not impressive wins as you look at the schedule. Atanta is well rested and a better team with a better QB. Wins over Seattle , Arizona and St. Louis not impressive for San Fran when looking at competition, I like Atlanta to win outright. Vegas oddsmakers beggin you to take San Fran here with this line under a fall number.
Play 1 Unit on Atlanta
Bonus 2 Team 6 point Teaser - Tease NY Giants down to -9.5 and tease Houston to +11.5 for a 1 Unit Bonus Teaser Play.
Evan Altemus
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Pick: Over 41.5
Cleveland’s offense got a boost last week by making the change to Derek Anderson as the starting quarterback. He threw for 270 yards against the Bengals, and Jerome Harrison rushed for over 120 yards. The Braylon Edwards trade won’t affect them because he didn’t even have an impact on last week’s game. In addition, there were reports that he was disgruntled and not motivated to play. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s defense is still a problem. They have given up 23 points or more in every game this season, and they should have given up more points than they did last week. Buffalo’s offense will have no problem getting going in this game. The Bills only scored 17 combined points in their last 2 games, but that is because they were playing against stout defenses in Miami and New Orleans. Because of their recent offensive struggles, I expect Buffalo to open things up in this game. Sharp bettors jumped all over this line when it came out, increasing it by two points. Look for this game to easily fly over the total.
5 UNIT SELECTION
Don Wallace Sports
Carolina -3.5 over Washington
Kansas City +9 over Dallas
Ben Burns
10* Titans
10* Rams
Detroit
Detroit/Pitt Under
Titans/Colts Under
RON RAYMOND
5* Bengals / Ravens Under 42
Maddux Sports
3 units on St. Louis +10
5 units on Carolina -4
3 units on Tampa Bay +15.5
4 units on Seattle -1
3 units on Tennessee +3.5
3 units on Miami +1.5
Pointwise Phone Service
3* DENVER, CAROLINA,DENVER/NE UNDER 41
2* SAN FRAN, BUFFALO, INDY, MIAMI
3GSports
10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH: WASHINGTON REDSKINS
10* BONUS BLOWOUT: ARIZONA
5* Denver
5* Tennessee
4* Atlanta
Andre Gomes
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OAK +15.5 vs NYG
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The Giants are 4-0 right now and undoubtedly, they are a terrific team however, this is a good spot for the big dog to cover the spread. The Giants returned home after three consecutive road games, in which they defeated the Cowboys, the Buccaneers and the Chiefs. We can't ignore the fact that the Giants will face the Saints next week on the road, in a big game for them, but first the Giants will have to face a poor Raiders team and this is a good spot for them to relax and just take care of the business.
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Eli Manning got injured last week and although he is probable for this game, he didn't have a regular week of training, as he is battling an injury on the plantar fascia of his right foot. So I don't expect Eli to take risky shots that could hurt him for the next games of the team and so, the Giants will control the tempo of the game for a secure victory.
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Despite the Raiders being 15.5 points underdogs, we aren't talking about a typical bad team. A typical bad team would be a horrible defensive team, however this is not the case with the Raiders. In fact, the Raiders are yet to allow 30 points in a game this season, as they allowed 24, 10, 23 and 29 points and they have a decent defense which combined with a normal offense would make them a pretty decent team. The problem is that JaMarcus Russell simply can't connect a single pass. The Raiders have a good running game with Michael Bush and Justin Fargas and even though Darren McFadden is out for this contest, the Raiders are a run oriented team which will eat some time off the clock.
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Last week the Raiders lost against the Texans in Houston by 6-29 in an awful exhibition. They committed 3 turnovers and their offensive line was horrendous, as Russell was sacked twice and hit 11 times just after releasing the ball on passes. Head coach Tom Cable has taken more of a hands-on approach with the offensive line during the week and I expect them to bring more effort to the field this week.
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We have for this contest a team which is in an emotional letdown spot facing a poor team that despite their weaknesses, they have a decent defense which will keep them in the game and that's the biggest reason why I'm taking the Raiders in here.
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Single Dime Play on Oakland Raiders +15.5
Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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25* AFC/NFC Game of the Year
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Houston at Arizona
Play: Arizona -5
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Ken Whisenhunt was widely praised for how he turned the Cardinals from one of the NFL's perennial non-contenders to within a 'hair' of beating the Steelers in last year's Super Bowl. However, it has all unraveled very quickly in 2009. The Cardinals had an awful preseason (0-4) and it's carried over into the regular season. There's been a lack of attention to detail (a popular line of self-criticism among the Cards themselves) and their problems with turnovers in the preseason have continued in the regular season. The Cardinals tied for third in the NFL last year in scoring (26.7 PPG) and then averaged 31.7 PPG during the postseason. The Cards are tied for 20th in the league with 19.0 PPG this year and their six TDs rank them tied for 27th. Can they fix those problems? While the Cards were winning their first division title in 33 years in 2008, the Texans finished 8-8 for the second straight season and enter their eighth year in the NFL still looking for the franchise's first winning season. The Texans entered last week's home contest with the Raiders allowing 28.7 PPG and ranking last in the league in rushing defense (204.7 YPG), last in yards allowed per rush (6.3) and last in rushes allowed of 20 yards or longer (7). Does it count that Houston held the Raiders to 31 yards rushing on 19 carries or that JaMarcus Russell completed just 12-of-33 passes for 128 yards and a lost fumble in a 29-6 Houston win Of course it does but the Texans are facing a desperate Arizona team here. The Cards are 1-2 and the surprising 49ers have opened 3-1 and already own a win over the Cards, in Phoenix! After an MVP-like season is 2008, Warner has yet to get untracked in 2009. He has thrown four INTs and been sacked seven times through three games with neither Fitzgerald nor Boldin providing any "highlight-reel" plays. Hightower has just 109 YR and rookie Wells just 71, as the Cards are averaging an NFL-low 60.7 YPG on the ground (3.2 YPC). However, as mentioned, the Texans have struggled against the run prior to the Oakland game. Speaking of having trouble running the ball, look at the Texans. Steve Slaton ran for 1,282 yards as a rookie (4.8 YPC / 9 TDs) but has just 192 yards (3.3 YPC) through four games, as the Texans haven't been too much better than the Cards at running the football (rank 28th at 83.0 YPG / 3.2 YPC / 1 TD). Schaub has been both good and bad in 2009. He's averaged 195 YPG through the air (one TD / two INTs) in Weeks 1 and 4 but 328.5 YPG with seven TDs and one INT in Weeks 2 and 3. The Cards were on a 10-3 ATS run at home since late in the 2007 season (including the '08 postseason) but have opened 0-2 SU and ATS in 2009. They CAN'T afford to fall to 0-3. The Houston defense is vulnerable (forget the Oakland game) and two of the team's top defenders, DE Mario Williams (shoulder) and rookie LB Brian Cushing (illness), are both questionable. Note that this situation sets up pretty nicely for the Cardinals. Schaub is just 3-10 SU (4-9 ATS) in his last 13 road starts and the Cards are 10-4 ATS in their first game back off a bye, if coming off a SU loss (were embarrassed on SNF by the Colts). The Texans offer just a "patchwork" defense and will succumb to Warner's aerial assault. Also, look for the Arizona running game to finally get going against a very weak Houston rush D. AFC/NFC Game of the Year 25* Arizona Cardinals.