Northcoast
3'* NE
3* Caro
3* SF
Phil Steele
4* NE
3* Caro
3* SF
3* Seattle
Chris Jordan
300♦ NEW YORK GIANTS - It's very difficult to think about any other quarterback in the league who has struggled as much as JaMarcus Russell, and with the itinerary this team has endured the past eight days, I don't see him being able to do anything against this swarming defense. Seriously guys, I mean I will address the whole Eli Manning situation in a moment, but the defense can deliver a cover just as easy as the offense.
Think about it, Russell is completing 39.8 percent of his passes - he completed 43-of-108 tosses for 506 yards - with just one touchdown versus four interceptions. Now he's going to take on the No. 1 defense in the league? How about, the No. 1 passing defense in the NFL? Paaahhhleeezzeee ... you want me to be concerned about Manning's heel when the Raiders - who might be the saddest organization in the league right now - were in Houston eight days ago, then went home after being swatted 29-6 by the Texans, went home to prepare for arguably the frontrunner in the NFC and are now in Jersey for this contest?
I'm not buying into it, not one bit. Not when the Raiders rank last in total offense, last in passing yardage and 31 ins rushing yardage. And with running back Darren McFadden on the shelf, the workload goes to Michael Bush and Justin Fargas ... ahem, who?!?!?! I mean, I know who they are, but you get the point. Oakland's, I mean Russell's, only shot is if he gets the dink-and-dunk game going with tight end Zach Miller. And even then, how effective can that be against the top passing D?
Okay, so as for Manning, here's the deal ...
He participated in the New York Giants' practice Friday after missing two straight practices. Coach Tom Coughlin told reporters that Manning's availability for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders likely will be a game-time decision and that Manning "did fine" during Friday's practice and he was "encouraged" by how Manning looked.
On Saturday, he felt good enough to participate in the walkthrough and the tell-all sign was when the Giants failed to promote rookie quarterback Rhett Bomar off the practice squad, which means they are preparing to go into the game with only two quarterbacks - Manning and David Carr, who worked with the Giants' starting offense during practices Wednesday and Thursday while Manning sat out. And believe me, Coughling obviously wouldn't go into the game with just two signal callers if he was worried that Manning wouldn't be healthy enough to play.
All that being said, Manning isn't about to let that consecutvie-game streak go to waste if he couldn't play.
And since Steve Smith and Mario Manningham have been making Giants fans forget Plaxico is currently residing in a cubicle by tallying a combined 52 receptions, 717 yards and six touchdowns, I don't there'll be much the trravel-weary Raiders will be able to do.
All Giants here!
100♦ COLORADO ROCKIES (LIST Hammel over Happ) - Welcome to the blizzard-worn Coors Field. The Rockies will emerge from the wild-card ranks looking more like the higher seed than the defending champs after this one. As I said yesterday, this is a team that has a knack for going on unstoppable runs, and now it is really in a great situation to take advantage in this series.
The unconfirmed blurb I heard on the street outside of Coors Field yesterday was that maintenance crews were installing extra space heaters in the Rockies' dugout - but not necessarily in the Phillies' dugout. Whether or not that's true - or even allowed - is beyond me. But I do know there are certain home-field advantages in many old-school ballparks, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Rockies did enjoy better amenities than their visitors during this frigid faceoff.
I like Hammel over Happ, just as I did over Martinez, as Colorado's import for Tampa won five of his last seven decisions to finish 10-8. He's found great command and is throwing strikes effectively. I expect him to challenge the Phillies hitters tonight in the brutal cold weather.
Colorado won 51 games at Coors Field, the second most in the National League this season.
Play Colorado tonight.
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9* LA / Boston Over 9
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6* Red Sox RL +140
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7* Minn / NY Over 9.5
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3* Yanks RL -120
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8* Phil / Colo Over 9
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Colts at Titans
Pick: Titans +4
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The season is almost a write off for the Titans who, at 0-4, are experiencing a much different fate this season than last when they started 10-0 en route to a 13-3 record and the AFC's top seed in the Playoffs where they lost at home to Baltimore in their first Playoff game. Indy has seen a smooth coaching transition from Tony Dungy to Jim Caldwell and, unlike last season, QB Peyton Manning has started the season fully healthy, leading the Colts to a 4-0 start. Despite losing all 4 games Tennessee has some solid edges in the rushing game, both on offense and defense as they are averaging 5.5 yards per rush on offense (# 2) while allowing just 2.8 yards per rush (# 2). The Titans do miss the pass rushing of Albert Haynesworth, resulting in some poor pass defense stats. The Titans are out of favor this week after having burned their backers the past two weeks against the Jets and Jaguars. Yet if Indianapolis is so much the better team (as their 4-0 record and impressive offense stats would indicate) why are they favored by just over a FG rather than closer to a TD? This tells us that the linesmaker acknowledges there is not as great a gap between these teams as the public at large perceives. We will be getting an intensely inspired effort from the Titans on Sunday night and an outright upset would not be a surprise. But Manning's ability to lead a late drive for a come from behind TD or a game winning FG make taking the points the preferred option
Bob Valentino
30 Dime NFC Game of the Month
FALCONS
Seabass
20 teas Kansas City And Houston/Arizona Over
30 Seattle , Balt under
50 Arizona
100 Pats, Rams, KC/Dall Over
Stephen Nover
25-Dime New England Patriots - When was the last time you saw a 4-0 team that has allowed just 26 points all season a home underdog? Probably never. The point is the oddsmaker doesn't respect Denver and neither do I.
Tom Brady is getting sharper and more in sync with his receivers every week. The Patriots destroyed Denver, 41-7, last year. That was without Brady.
Yes, Denver is improved and vastly different. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is doing an excellent job with the castoffs he has manning many of his starting spots.
But let's not, for one instance, lose sight of the teams Denver has played - Cincinnati (who they beat on a fluke tipped touchdown pass), Cleveland at home, Oakland and catching an overrated mixed-up Dallas squad at home.
Denver doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Patriots' attack. Kyle Orton is a dink-and-dunk game manager. Correll Buckhalter, the team's leading rusher and best short-yardage back, is out with an ankle injury. New England has yet to give up 300 yards passing this season.
The Patriots are getting healthier on defense. Bill Belichick is a master defensive game planner. He's come up with the right schemes to stop much tougher offenses than what the Broncos offer. The Patriots are 36-16-1 (69 percent) against the spread in their last 53 road games. They have covered 17 of the past 23 (74 percent) games as road chalk.
The Broncos are 8-19-1 against the spread in their last 28 home games.
Broncos head man Josh McDaniels spent eight season learning under Belichick, the past three as offensive coordinator for New England. Belichick doesn't want to lose to his pupil. So the Patriots won't lack for motivation in this non-division matchup.
10-Dime Carolina Panthers - The Panthers, off a bye, have had two weeks to realize the importance of this matchup. They are 0-3 and absolutely can not take a home loss. They need to win this game to salvage their season.
Carolina is 8-4-1 against the spread in its last 13 home contests. The Redskins are deficient in their rushing attack and in pass protection. The result is opponents have held Washington to 20 points or less in 11 of the last 12 games. Washington ranks 27th in scoring.
While the Panthers are sure to be motivated, the Redskins are in a confused state thanks to their meddling and incompetent owner Daniel "Danny Boy" Snyder. Jim Zorn could go at any time. Snyder further eroded Zorn's shrinking respect and authority by bringing in 67-year-old Sherm Lewis as an offensive consultant. Lewis hasn't held an NFL job for nearly five years.
Morale is terrible on the Redskins. Zorn is being undercut. Defensive coordinator Greg Blache is not talking to the media. Big free agent signing Albert Haynesworth is less than 100 percent. Clinton Portis had a heated verbal exchange with fullback Mike Sellers during practice this week.
Portis is clearly past his prime. He has failed to top 80 yards rushing during Weeks 2-4 against weak defenses St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa Bay. The Redskins are without their top run blocker, guard Randy Thomas.
The Redskins' offensive line is like Portis, aging and past their prime. Backup tailback Ladell Betts is averaging 1.6 yards per carry.
The Panthers shored up their porous run defense by signing 340-pound veteran run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. The Panthers have the better skill position players with running back DeAngelo Williams and wide receiver Steve Smith.
The Redskins have lost five in a row on the road. In their last road game, they were beaten by the Lions, losers of 19 straight games. Washington is a money-burner going 1-8-3 against the spread in its last 12 games.
5-Dime Seattle Seahawks - I like Seattle, with one of the best homefield advantages, to beat Jacksonville. The Seahawks are in a desperate situation. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a terrible situational spot.
The Jaguars are traveling cross-country following back-to-back division victories. The Jaguars haven't won two straight road games in two years. The Jaguars, under Jack Del Rio, are 0-7 against the spread off consecutive straight-up and against the spread victories.
It's not just the situation. I don't believe the Jaguars are very good. They have lost 14 of their last 21 games.
The Jaguars have a weak secondary and their offensive line partially consists of two rookie tackles, who are both questionable. Eugene Monroe has been battling the flu, while Eben Britton missed last week's game because of a sprained knee. Both have taken their share of lumps.
On offense, the Jaguars rely heavily on running back Maurice Jones-Drew. But if you discount Jones-Drew's 60-yard run against a weak Houston rush defense, the Jaguars have averaged only 3.0 yards a carry in their last two games.
Seattle has offensive line injuries, too. Pro Bowl left tackle Walter Jones is out. So is Sean Locklear and Rob Sims. But Matt Hasselbeck has practiced this week after missing the past two games with a rib injury. He's expected to start.
Hasselbeck would give the Seahawks a huge emotional boost. I'm fine, though, if backup Seneca Wallace starts again. The Seahawks have become more run-oriented and their quarterback takes short drops making it easier to pass protect. The Jaguars also lack a strong pass rush.
Seattle coach Jim Mora admitted this is a crucial game. The Seahawks have a big home field advantage. There isn't a louder outdoor stadium than Qwest Field.
The Seahawks are 10-5-1 against the spread in their last 16 home contests. They have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference home games and have covered 10 of the past 12 times when playing following back-to-back losses.
Scott Rickenbach
10* (TOP PLAY) Tennessee Titans (+) vs Indianapolis
The Colts have received heavy action here in terms of the betting and why not? After all, they are 4-0 on the season while the Titans are 0-4 on the season. Also, we all know that Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning has a history of huge performances in primetime games. However, the Titans are treating this is their “Super Bowl” and yes, we know it’s only week five of the NFL season but Tennessee needs this game in the worst way. They know there is still hope for them if they can get to 1-4 and snap their opening slide. Keep in mind, the Titans were 1-4 in 2002 under coach Jeff Fisher and that team ended up making to the AFC Championship Game. Yes, Fisher and his troops are fully capable of “making a run” but they know they can’t wait any longer. Note that the four teams the Colts have beaten so far this season are a combined 5-10 on the year. The Colts still haven’t defeated a team that currently has a winning record on the season. Also their first two wins were “nail-biters” that came by a combined six points. Their next two wins came against a flat Arizona Cardinals team and a wounded Seattle Seahawks team missing a ton of key personnel.
This week’s situation will be much different for the Colts than any situation they’ve faced so far this season. The Titans are well-coached, physical, much more talented than their 0-4 record indicates, and they’re at home in a primetime game with their backs against the wall. The Titans have a very strong running game and they will use that to punish a Colts run defense that still misses the services of Bob Sanders. Now, we fully realize that Indianapolis has put up good numbers against the run in their last two games but they faced the Cardinals and Seahawks. The Cards don’t run and Seattle wasn’t healthy enough to run. Remember when Indy got run all over by the Dolphins in primetime action earlier this season? The Colts snuck out the win there but they absolutely were manhandled at the line of scrimmage and we look for a similar result here. Indianapolis has a history of struggling against physical, run-dominated teams and that is precisely what they’re facing here. Also, there’s an old saying that “it’s the wounded dog that bites the hardest” and that is the case here. You’re talking about a very proud Titans team on national TV that is off to a totally unexpected (for them) 0-4 start to the season! Note that Tennessee is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in a home dog role. Not only are the Titans getting at least 3.5 points here at home, this is also arguably the hungriest they’ve ever been as a home dog. They want this victory so badly they can taste it and we expect you to witness the Titans playing this game like it is indeed their Super Bowl. Look for a huge upset win here put we’ll grab the generous points here just in case. Play Tennessee plus the points as a 10* TOP PLAY selection.
8* (Regular Play) Atlanta Falcons (+) @ San Francisco
The 49’ers are 3-1 this season but their three wins have come against teams that are currently a combined 2-9 on the season. Simply put, we feel the 49’ers are over-rated now. They are currently without RB Frank Gore and that absolutely hurts their ground attack. Last week, their 35-0 win over St Louis is quite deceiving. They only outgained the Rams by 52 yards in that game and the 49’ers ground game was no better than the St Louis rushing attack in that match-up. Each team came up just short of 100 yards rushing. The Falcons are hungry here…very hungry. They are also very focused, refreshed, and healthy. That’s what a bye will do for a team. Atlanta had a week off to think about the beating they took at the hands of the Patriots right before their bye week. Keep in mind, Atlanta had won their first two games by an average margin of ten points per game before losing at New England.
The Falcons bring extra focus to this game after the 16 point drubbing at the hands of the Patriots and after the extra time off to analyze areas needing improvement. The Falcons are healthier now and getting some key players back to help increase the physicality on both sides of the ball and that’s what we fully expect here. The Niners offense under Shaun Hill is simply not as impressive as the Falcons offense under Matt Ryan. Also, the Falcons are looking to (and healthy enough to) re-establish their dynamic run game here. Conversely, the Niners will continue to struggle on the ground without Gore. Also, in the passing game, San Francisco just doesn’t have the weapons (and hasn’t utilized those it does have properly) in terms of stretching the field and getting the ball downfield. The 49’ers anemic offense is overtaken by the dynamic offense of the Falcons here. Also, fresh off of a bye, Atlanta is all set to be very physical here on both sides of the ball and get right back into the win column. That said, we’ll grab the available points but not expect to need them. Play Atlanta plus the points as an 8* Regular Play selection.
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New England vs. Denver
Play: New England -3
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Denver was lucky to get a win last week against Dallas, and especially in their week one game against Cincinnati. The Cowboys led the game throughout last week, but they simply weren’t able to get scores. The Broncos don’t have a dominant offense, but head coach Josh McDaniels is able to hide some the flaws of Kyle Orton. However, New England’s coach Bill Belichick knows the offense that McDaniels will run, and he is a master defensive schemer. The Patriots defense has quietly done very well this season, despite losing several veterans from last season’s team. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense has done well this season, but Dallas had several opportunities to move the ball through the air last week. In addition, this young Denver team left it all on the field last week in their huge home upset win over Dallas, so I expect that it will be difficult for them to have another step up performance this week. Tom Brady and his group of receivers will be able to take advantage of the Denver secondary this week, unlike the mistakes that Dallas and Tony Romo made last week. Look for New England to win this game by margin and get the point spread cover.
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4 UNIT SELECTION PATRIOTS
PowerPlayWins
49ers -2.5
Texans/Cardinals Over 50
Patriots -3
Advantage Sports
Kan City
Cleveland
Atlanta
TB/ Philly Under
Craig Davis
40 Dime - PANTHERS (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -3 1/2 or -4.)
10 Dime - SEAHAWKS
CAROLINA (buy the half point if the line is -3 1/2 or -4) ---- Wow, it's amazing what public perception can do to a line. I honestly thought when these Vegas point spreads were released, Carolina would be close to a TD fave. So you can imagine how excited I was when I saw this thing come in around 3. Granted, it's moved up a tad, but that honestly doesn't matter to me... I was going to release Carolina at -6. Back to public perception... most people look at these two teams and see the Redskins at 2-2 in a very tough NFC East while the Panthers have looked pathetic in three games, losing all three by 8 points or more. But let's not forget that they committed 7 turnovers after grabbing a 7-0 lead over Philly in Week 1. They battled the Falcons till the fourth quarter in Atlanta before a costly turnover set up the Falcons for the game winning score in Week 2. They also held a 7-0 lead over Dallas on Monday night in Week 3 before a few costly turnovers led to a 21-7 Dallas win.
The bye week couldn't have come at a better time... and the matchup is perfect for a Carolina win today. Washington is one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL and for two straight weeks HC John Fox has preached "ball protection, ball protection, ball protection". I realize I'm taking a big chance here with a team that has turned the ball over so much, but even if they do commit a few turnovers, I have no faith in Jim Zorn's offense to convert. When I say this offense is bad, I mean they're bad. They haven't scored more than 17 points in a game this season and once (against the Rams no less) didn't score a TD in 4 quarters at home vs. the St. Louis Rams. RB Clinton Portis hasn't come close to 100 yards rushing in a game and Jason Campbell simply doesn't have the tools to be effective more than one or two drives per game.
The bottom line for Carolina here today is "will they get back to the things they did well last year and pound the ball behind that big offensive line"?? Though I can't prove it, I have a feeling they will. Don't put the game in the hands of Jake Delhomme because he's not capable of leading game winning drives, but he's definitely more than capable of managing the offense with a healthy mix of runs and short passes. As the Panthers get back to their roots, this will more than set up a few long passes to suddenly forgotten WR Steve Smith. But the key is getting DeAngelo Williams and a finally healthy Jonathan Stewart going out of the backfield. Washington's run defense is average, at best, and when Carolina decides to get back to the ground game, it's going to be a long afternoon as the Panthers should be able to control the clock and time of possession.
Two matchups to watch that I believe are clearly in our favor today are Steve Smith vs. DeAngelo Hall and OT Chris Samuels vs. Julius Peppers. Samuels isn't 100% coming back from a surgically repaired hip while Peppers is just looking for a matchup that he can exploit. Peppers is off to a very slow start this year, but this matchup with Samuels could be just what the doctor ordered. As for Smith vs. Hall, well, let's just say it could be a clinic. Hall's skills have clearly diminished and I have no idea what plan the Redskins are putting in place to keep Smith in check, but I'm expecting the first big day of the season for Mr. Smith. When all is said and done, I think the Panthers are much better than their 0-3 record and if Washington hadn't played Tampa, Detroit, and St. Louis, we could be talking about the 0-4 Washington Redskins. Small number to lay and we'll take it. Top play of the day on Carolina.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS --- As long as this number stays under 3, I'm fine with whatever we get. Look, I realize Seattle hasn't played up to expectations other than their Week 1 domination of St. Louis, but the common denominator here is a healthy Matt Hasselbeck. I could hear the collective groan coming from the state of Washington when Patrick Willis put his helmet square in Hasselbeck's ribs in Week 2s loss to the Niners. Since then the Seahawks haven't looked the same offensively with Seneca Wallace. That's why I'm as excited as a kid at Christmas that we get Hasselbeck back today. Not only does he help this offense keep their own defense off the field for some much needed rest, but Seattle is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play and you can bet this team is going to do whatever it takes to defend their home field after dropping a tough one there a few weeks ago vs. Chicago. Expect a healthy dose of Julius Jones early, but ultimately it's going to be TJ Houshmandzadeh, John Carlson and Nate Burleson who spread the field and cause all sorts of trouble for Jacksonville's secondary.
Speaking of Jacksonville, the public is starting to jump on their bandwagon after a couple of impressive wins over Houston and Tennessee. What's been so impressive about this team is the fact they're finally able to throw the football with a legitimate WR1... Mike Sims-Walker. This guy has gotten better each week and has finally enabled Torry Holt to take the WR2 role in this offense. However, I'm completely unimpressed with Jacksonville's pass defense and I'm a little worried they have some injury issues at LB as well. We already know they could be without both starting offensive tackles and communication could be a problem in one of the loudest stadiums in the league. Matt Hasselbeck is a winner, and he simply won't let this team lose... not this game. Not to a team who has to travel nearly 3,000 miles to get there. Not against a team who has already dropped a lopsided affair to another NFC West team earlier in the year. Don't get me wrong... Seattle isn't going to shut the Jags out... but they need this game more than Jacksonville because they're chasing San Francisco and a loss here would be devastating. I'm siding with the home team here as they win 27-17.
Tom Stryker
5* Late Phone Play
CAROLINA
Dave Malinsky
4* Cleveland +6
NSA
20* Cincinnati +9(AFC GOY)
20* New England -3
10* Washington +4.5
10* Pittsburgh -10.5
10* Houston +5.5
10* Boston -140