Tony Weston
30 Dime Colts
10 Dime Bills
Colts at Titans
COLTS - With 4 weeks already in the books and Week 5 about getting there, the Indianapolis Colts are right where everyone figured they’d be, undefeated at 4-0 SU, eyeing win No. 5 in a row.
And the Titans, well, this season hasn’t been kind to them considering where they left off last year.
Tennessee comes into this game against their AFC South rival sitting at 0-4 SU and having gone just 1-3 ATS so far this year, including non-covers in each of its last three games.
The Titans are not just losing, but they’re losing big, losing by more than a touchdown a game (8.2 points). In fact, things have progressively gotten worse as this season’s gone on. The Titans lost each of their first two games of the year, at Pittsburgh and at home against Houston, by 3 points per. But in their last two losses, at the Jets and at the Jaguars, Tennessee has lost by an average of 13.5 points per game.
Including the non-covers that have been racked up this year, the Titans have failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 games overall and have gone just 1-5 ATS their last 6 games against the AFC.
In division, Tennessee has failed to cover in 4 straight against the South.
On the other side, the Colts have covered in 5 of their last 7 games on the road and are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games in October.
Going back to last season Indy has covered in 5 of its last 7 games overall and will cash in again tonight against the lowly Titans. Take the Colts in this one tonight.
Browns at Bills
BILLS - While the Buffalo Bills have had their share of struggles this season, at least they’re not in the position the Cleveland Browns are in.
The Browns are not only one of the worst teams in the NFL, but just this week they traded away their only offensive playmaker in Braylon Edwards, basically because he got in a spat with a friend of LeBron James.
Now, the Browns only have Joshua Cribbs to make plays. Not a promising prospect considering his best work comes on special teams.
Cleveland comes into this game having gone just 1-3 ATS this season to go along with its 0-4 SU record. And going back a little further, Cleveland has covered just once its last 10 games overall and only once its last 8 games against the AFC.
Also, the Browns are riding an 0-5 ATS skid when installed as a road underdog. The team is also 0-5 ATS its last 5 games overall on the road.
The Bills, on the other hand, have covered in 13 of their last 17 games at home against teams with a losing road record and have gone 25-8-1 ATS their last 34 games against teams with a losing record.
Buffalo will continue its winning ways against another losing team as the Bills get over easily today against the hapless Browns.
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10 Units Kansas City +9
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You have a team that is 0-4 and dieing for a win and is 0-4 against the spread. I am basing this bet against the Cowboys more than on the Chiefs. The Cowboys are not good and are in turmoil and will not have wide out Roy Williams. I believe the Chiefs defense will keep them in this game and with a chance to win this game outright. This will be a very tight game I believe scoring in the teens. Take the Chiefs as my game of the week and I continue my dominance.
Lenny Del Genio
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NFL Oddsmaker Mismatch
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Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
Play: Cincinnati +8.5
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Winner here takes sole possession of first place in the AFC North, yet for some reason the oddsmakers are giving the Bengals no respect. Marvin Lewis’ team has won three straight and is actually one freak play (the “Immaculate Deflection” vs. Denver) away from being a perfect 4-0 SU on the year. QB Carson Palmer had beaten the Ravens six of the first eight times he’s faced them, before losing to them in the only meeting last year (injured for second game). Cincinnati, as we talked about in our analysis two weeks ago in the Pittsburgh game (WINNER), has a very good defense with seven starters that were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round. The Ravens are very good too, but this line is inflated. Sure Baltimore has covered two double-digit spreads at home thus far. However, those wins came against Cleveland and Kansas City, neither of whom has a won a game in eight tries this season. The Ravens’ weakness this year is at CB, so expect Palmer to attack. RB Cedric Benson is good enough to prevent all out Baltimore blitzes. Cincy has impressed us with outright wins over Green Bay and Pittsburgh the only other times they’ve been underdogs. Sure they struggled last week vs. Cleveland, but that was an obvious flat spot on the road between two bigger division games. Special teams for the Browns kept that game closer than it should have been. We’ll gladly take the points here. Cincinnati is our NFL Oddsmaker Mismatch.
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Indianapolis vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee +4
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The Titans host the Colts in an AFC South Division battle tonight knowing head coach Jeff Fisher is 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS in his career as a home dog off a double-digit ATS loss. In addition, the Colts are 0-4-1 ATS against opponents off a SU favorite loss. The clincher, though is the fact that NFL winless teams off a loss of 9 or more points in Game Five with revenge are 14-0 ATS when facing an opponent off a win since 1986. With Indy allowing teams 4.0 Yards Per rush and Tennessee averaging a league high 5.5 Yards Per Rush, we'll grab the points with the Titans. We recommend a 4-unit play on Tennessee.
Al DeMarco
15 Dime - Carolina
Note: This line is between 4 and 4 1/2 as I post this play. In either case, buy down the 1/2 point.
I'm a perfect 3-0 with my premium and free picks involving the Panthers this year. I used a 15 dime play on the Eagles against them in Week 1, a free pick against them in Week 2 when they lost at Atlanta, and a 20 dime play on Dallas when they stopped Carolina on Monday night two weeks ago. Today, however, coming off a bye and standing at 0-3, I'm jumping on John Fox's team as they finally break into the win column against Washington.
When the Redskins last hit the road, they lost at Detroit, allowing the Lions to snap a 19-game losing streak. This is a team that's 1-4-1 ATS in its last six on the highway and 8-16-3 in its last 27 games outside of the NFC East. Its two SU wins this season have come at home by margins of two and three points against St. Louis and Tampa Bay, respectively, a pair of teams that are a combined 0-8 on the season.
Last year the Redskins were ranked 24th in the league in red zone efficiency and those issues remain intact this season as an injury-riddled offensive line, already minus starting guard Randy Thomas, is having problems opening holes for Clinton Portis, who is averaging just 70 yards per game running on gimpy ankles. And quarterback Jason Campbell, coming off a three-interception performance against Tampa, continues to struggle for consistency. Thus, it's no surprise to note the Redskins have scored 20 or less points in 11 of their last 12 games.
Jake Delhomme has received his fair share of criticism for being turnover-plagued of late, but the Carolina quarterback should find adequate time to exploit Washington's secondary against a Redskins defense that has only seven sacks through four games. And although the addition of Albert Haynesworth has bolstered the play of the defensive line, the Skins will be challenged to stop a Panther ground game powered by the strong 1-2 punch of DeAngelo Williams and a now-healthy Jonathan Stewart. Washington is allowing opposing backs to average 4.3 yards per carry on the season.
Carolina was ranked third in the league in rushing last season when running plays accounted for 54% of their offensive action. This year, the Panthers are ranked 20th with the ground game accounting for just 38% of the plays called. Expect a reversal of that downturn today with Williams (4.4 ypc) and Stewart (4.3 ypc) getting their numbers called early, thereby opening the passing lanes for Delhomme and Steve Smith.
Carolina's defense has been dreadful since the mid-point of last season, but Washington seemingly does not have the tools to exploit it.
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Seahawks -1 9* POD
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In the beginning of the year I said these two teams were going to bet he two surprise teams in the NFL. The Jaguars are now 2-2 winning two games in a row and looked dominant last weekend while the Seahawks have struggled since they lost Hasselback, but have always dominated at home. Sunday they will be home sending the Jaguars on their longest trip in several years. It's hard to play in Seattle and I think they will struggle as Hasselback will return against the Jaguars tomorrow. I like the under the radar Seahawks team and I will back them here like I did against the Bears when they out gained them in every offensive category but lost mainly because of Olindo Mare's 2 missed field goals. That won't happen on Sunday. Mare won't be kicking 6 field goals with Hasselback at the helm or against the Jaguars defense that ranks 31st against the pass. Look for Hasselback to get it going early with the passing game and their deep WR core that features Branch, whose your mama, and Burelsson. Two trends dating back to the 1985 season that I love working against the Jaguars and for the Seahawks are:Seahawks fall into a 46-21-1 ATS since the 1994 season where a team coming off an ATS loss of 3+ and going over by more than 3 now as a home favorite. Jaguars fall into a 14-43-2 ATS trend since 1985 season where a team is coming off a win and the over as a home dog now playing in an open stadium with artificial turf. Those teams are losing the game by an average margin of 10.3 points. Jaguars are due for a let down and you will see a much better Seahawks defense here on Sunday.
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New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Patriots -2.5 (buy 1/2)
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Snow today in Denver, but clear and 48 degrees tomorrow. Weather won't play a factor in tomorrows game and I like the Patriots for the third week in a row despite going west to play. Broncos are definitely better than many expected, but I still think they are over rated. Even with their win over the Cowboys I think all that proved was just how bad the Cowboys are. The Patriots on the other hand continue to progress and get better which I said last week when I had them as my POD. Brady's going to get better and better each week off his injury that's just the way it goes. Look for him to have a big game against the Broncos as Bellecheck will face his former coach tomorrow and that usually does not bode well for Bill's pupil. Should be an interesting game and if the Broncos can pull off a win I can see them winning 11 games in that division, but a loss will likely set them back to realistic expectations.
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Panthers -4 (3.5-Dime POD) (1-5 scale)
Nelly's LTS
2* Detroit/Pittsburgh Under
2* Atlanta
2* Denver
ANTHONY REDD
15 Dime Browns
15 Dime Chiefs
15 Dime Falcons
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Jacksonville vs. Seattle
Play: Jacksonville +1.5
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Matt Hasselbeck returns at QB for the Seahawks, but he is missing the whole left side of his offensive line. I do not see the timing being there for Hasselbeck as he has not played since week one. The Jags are in mid season form and just have too many weapons for Seattle. Look for the Jags offense to hit full stride today. Take the Jaguars.
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Twins +150 over Yankees
Pavano/Pettitte
Mean Green Profit Machine
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Redskins +5
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Broncos +3
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Steelers - Lions UNDER 44
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Patriots - Broncos UNDER 42
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Buccaneers + 9.5 1ST HLF
EXECUTIVE
500 Wash
Hiesman Trophy
10* Rams
10* KC
10* Tenn
Rocketman
3* St. Louis
3* Kansas City
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Houston vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -5.5
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Ron’s View: The Cardinals went into the Bye week on a down note, as they got smoked on Sunday Night football at home and knowing how competitive Kurt Warner is, I’m sure he’s been preparing mentally for this game. The Texans are 2-2 on the season, but their wins were against the Raiders and Titans, two teams who have stumbled out of the gate. Look for Warner to have a huge day!
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Database Tip: When HOUSTON TEXANS Played as road team as a Underdog - Won Last Game by 23 Points or Less; the Texans are 4-13-0 ATS in this spot.
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Forecast: Arizona 35 Houston 18.
Gamblers Ally
10* TEN
3* BUF