Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play St. Louis (+120) over Milwaukee (Top MLB Play)
Shaun Marcum has lost 10 of the last 14 home games when the line posted is between -100 to -150 and he has also lost 11 of the last 17 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Shaun Marcum has lost 2 consecutive playoff games and he is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 12.82.
NHL Hockey Sunday
Play Anaheim (-145) over St. Louis (Top NHL Play)
Jeff Benton
60 Dime Panthers / Falcons Over
Dom Chambers
100 Dime Colts
40 Dime Ravens
Great Lakes Sports
5* Eagles
4* Lions
3* Falcons
4* Brewers
Paul Leiner
100* Ravens -7
50* 49ers/Lions Over 46
Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 22-14 +19.80%
3% PHILADELPHIA -2.5
3% DALLAS +6.5
3% MINNESOTA +2.5
3% MIAMI +7
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 23.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.5
Yard Per Play (YPPL) 5.6
GREEN BAY -14 St Louis 48
St. Louis qualifies in a 26-4-1 situation that plays on winless teams coming off their bye week. Numbers favor GB by 16 and predict about 48 points. Packers lost at home to the Rams back in 2006 by three but were home dogs in that game. Against the recent version of the Rams, they have played twice in St Louis as of late (2007 and 2009) and won 33-14 and 36-17. GB is now 11-3 ATS at home as a favorite of more than seven points in non-division games. In each of those games they covered the spread, they scored at least 30 points. In the games they did not cover the spread, they failed to score more than 24 points. They actually lost all three of those games SU. Rams are now 3-8 ATS the last 11 games as road dogs of more than seven points against teams above .500. They allowed at least 31 points in seven of those eight losses. The Rams also failed to score more than 13 points in seven of those eight losses. Given these two teams history, unless they can keep GB under 30 points, they don't stand much of a chance to cover this game. And, knowing you can almost just write down GB for a bare minimum of 27-30 points at home each game, that makes it difficult to cover this number. Also, the Rams haven't scored more than 16 points in a game this year. GREEN BAY 30 ST LOUIS 13
PITTSBURGH -12 Jacksonville 40.5
Jacksonville qualifies in a contrary situation that is 149-87-5. That situation played on Seattle last week. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by eight and predict about 36 points. These two teams don't play against each other every year and this isn't the same version of Jacksonville from years past but Pittsburgh has always struggled against Jacksonville. You have to go back 10 years to find the last time they defeated Jacksonville by more than five points, when they won by 13 as a 6.5 point favorite back in 2001. That includes four home games and four road games. Jacksonville has lost four straight games and was blown out in their only road game against good competition, when they lost 32-3 at the Jets. The situations favor Jacksonville in this game as does the value. Pittsburgh is still banged up but they have been pretty good the last 1+ years laying seven or more points at home as they are now 5-0 ATS. PITTSBURGH 24 JACKSONVILLE 14
Philadelphia -2.5 WASHINGTON 47
Philadelphia qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 429-279-18. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 538-394-23. Numbers favor Washington by five and predict about 46 points. Philly has won four of the last five, and eight of the last ten games played here between these two, including winning 59-28 last year. Philadelphia has now allowed 24 or more points in 11 of their last 13 road games, including 31 or more in eight of those thirteen road games. Ironically, they are 8-5 SU in those same 13 road games because they have scored a ton of points. In all but one of those 13 road games (week one this year at the Rams), they have totaled at least 48 points. Washington has been very competitive at home over their last ten games. In nine of those ten games, they have won or lost by four or less points. Their one loss by more than four points was to these Eagles last year 59-28 on Monday night. Eagles simply need to stop turning the ball over. If they can do that, they have more than enough offense to win and cover this game. The Redskins offense is not that explosive so Philly has an excellent chance to cover this game if they can avoid the mistakes. PHILADELPHIA 34 WASHINGTON 24
DETROIT -4 San Francisco 46.5
SF qualifies in a negative situation, which is 81-42-7 and plays against them here. SF qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 538-394-23 and 296-204-23. Numbers favor Detroit by four and predict about 46 points. Detroit lost by 14 and 18 in 2009 and 2008 but those games were in SF. Detroit has now scored 20 or more points in eight straight home games and haven't allowed more than 13 points in their last four home games. With the situations going both ways in this game and the no value on either side I will call for a four point Detroit win. DETROIT 24 SAN FRANCISCO 20
ATLANTA -4 Carolina 50.5
Atlanta qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 538-394-23. Numbers actually favor Carolina by one point and predict about 48 points. After losing at home to Carolina three years in a row, they have defeated Carolina at home, under Mike Smith, by 17, 8 and 21 points the last three years. Carolina has now allowed the following in their last seven road games: 28, 34, 31, 27, 31, 24 and 31 points. However, Atlanta has allowed 31 and 25 points at home this year to above average offenses. Value favors Carolina and until Atlanta proves otherwise, I will lean against them. Although the numbers suggest a slightly lower scoring game than the total, based on what both these teams are allowing on defense, I will shade to the over slightly. Atlanta will be without Julio Jones in this game. ATLANTA 28 CAROLINA 27
CINCINNATI -7 Indianapolis 41
Indianapolis qualifies in a winless situation, which is 104-50-7. Cincinnati qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 116-40-3 and plays against them here. That same situation played against TB a few weeks ago when they played Indy as well. Cincinnati qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 538-394-23. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 11.5 points and predict about 42 points. Indy has been somewhat competitive this year, especially after their initial road game at Houston to begin the season. They have lost by eight, three, seven and four points. The Bengal's have never been good favorites as they are now just 6-16 ATS as home favorites of four or more points the last ten years. Once again the situations favor Indy but they are still banged up, especially in the secondary making it impossible for me to take them, not to mention the value lies squarely with Cincinnati. CINCINNATI 26 INDIANAPOLIS 16
NY GIANTS -3.5 Buffalo 50
Buffalo qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 296-204-23 as long as they are getting at least three points. Numbers make this game a pick 'em and predict about 53 points. The value and situation favor Buffalo. Buffalo took advantage of five Philadelphia turnovers last week, despite being out gained. Meanwhile, the Giants turned the ball over five times themselves. That usually means good things for teams like the Giants, especially when a team like Buffalo with a below average defense goes on the road. I'll call for a three point game and let the line determine which way I lean. NY GIANTS 30 BUFFALO 27
BALTIMORE -8.5 Houston 44.5
Houston qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 429-279-18. Numbers favor Baltimore by about eight points and predict about 44 points. These teams haven't met much of late. Baltimore jumped out to a huge lead last year in Houston on a Monday night, only to see Houston come back to tie the game and force OT. Baltimore won 34-28 on an interception return for a touchdown in OT. Houston's defense is improved this year but is now without Mario Williams for the season. They have allowed 13, 40, 24, 31, 34, 30, 31, 30, 24 and 27 points in their last 10 road games. Baltimore has put up points at home in non-divisional games, logging 34, 30, 17, 26, 37, 31, 31 and 48 points in their last eight home games against non-divisional teams. Houston figures to give up some points and the Ravens are scoring their share of points at home. With some of their secondary still hurting, Baltimore could give up a few points as well. I'll call for a seven point victory and let the line decide which way I lean. BALTIMORE 27 HOUSTON 20
OAKLAND -6.5 Cleveland 44.5
I don't have any situations in this game. Numbers favor Oakland by about six points and predict about 47 points. These two played three years in a row here from 2005 to 2007 with Oakland winning two of the three but no game decided by more than three points. For Cleveland this is only their second road game of the season. Joe Haden and Alex Mack are questionable for this game. Haden is a big deal and if he doesn't play I would probably lean Oakland's way. I don't have much of an opinion on this game. OAKLAND 27 CLEVELAND 20
NEW ENGLAND -6.5 Dallas 55.5
I don't have any situations in this game. Numbers favor NE by just three points and predict about 60 points. These two last met in 2007 during NE's undefeated season when NE won 48-27 as a 5.5 point away favorite in Dallas. Dallas has now played in 10 straight games that have been decided by four points or less. They are also now 3-0 ATS on the road as a dog under Jason Garrett winning two of those three with the only loss the meltdown loss at the Jets to begin this season. The other two games were SU wins at the Colts and the Giants. NE has now scored 30 or more points in 13 straight regular season games. They haven't played a ton of good offenses at home the past few years but when they have they allowed 28 points to Indy last year and 27 to GB last year (without Rodgers). This year they allowed 21 to SD but SD turned the ball over multiple times deep in NE territory and once on downs as well. NE will be tested this week. Unlike last week Dallas has an offense that can match NE and has a defense that is just as good as the Jets, for all practical purposes. They also get numerous players back healthy this week including Miles Austin at WR, Felix Jones at RB, Orlando Scandrick at CB and Gerald Sensabaugh at S. Don't be afraid to look at the Cowboys on the money line in this game. DALLAS 31 NEW ENGLAND 28
New Orleans -4.5 TAMPA BAY 49.5
I don't have any situations in this game. Numbers favor NO by six points and predict about 52 points. NO has won here easily the last two years as road favorites. They won 38-7 as 10.5 point favorites in 2009 and 31-6 last year as five point road favorites. NO has now scored 30, 23, 34, 36, 17, 24, 34, 30, 34, 31, 20 and 25 points in their last 12 road games. TB, when playing at home against good offenses, has not faired very well. They have allowed at least 27 points in seven of their last 10 home games against good offenses. The Saints are too good offensively so unless TB can score their share of points I don't see them covering this spread. They are missing DT Gerald McCoy and RB LeGarrette Blount. NEW ORLEANS 30 TAMPA BAY 20
CHICAGO -2.5 Minnesota 41.5
Minnesota qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 499-319-22, 538-394-23, 294-204-23 and 161- 86-8 (if they are getting more than three points). Chicago qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 130-59-8 and plays against them here. Numbers make this game a pick 'em and predict about 40 points. The Vikings have struggled here as of late, losing nine of the last ten games played here. Minnesota is simply the better team in this game. With a better offensive line, defensive line and secondary along with value and strong situations in their favor, they are the right side in this game. MINNESOTA 24 CHICAGO 17
NY JETS -7 Miami 42.5
Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 538-394-23. They also qualify in my turnover table situation, which is 429-279-18. Miami also qualifies in a general situation, which is 56-25-1. They also qualify in winless situations, which are 104-50-7 and 26-4-1. Miami also qualifies in a couple of road situations for poor teams, which are 126-56-5 and 149-81-4. Numbers favor the Jets by 7.5 points and predict about 41 points. The Jets have traditionally been bad home favorites and that has been true in this series as well. Miami has won the last three meetings here SU and four and five years ago they lost by just three points each year. Miami's defense has been not good, especially in the secondary, but they have enough play makers on offense, especially if they can get Daniel Thomas back at running back to cover the number against a Jets team who struggles on offense. NY JETS 21 MIAMI 20
Tom Stryker
100% Blowout - Falcons
Brandon Lang
100 Dime Baltimore -7
20 Dime Carolina +3.5
20 Dime Dallas +6.5
Rob Vinciletti
St Louis Cardinals
On Sunday the LCS Pitcher Power Play side is on the Cardinals. Game 903 at 4:05 eastern. Game 6 teams in the LCS in this exact scenario are even so there's no real home advantage here in game 6. The edge is in the pitching. The Brewers have Marcum going and he is 1-5 in his last 6 and has a 12.82 era over his last 3 starts. He is 6-12 at home with a 5.05 era and has allowed 5 runs in 9 innings over his last 2 starts here vs the Cardinals. Jackson goes for the Cardinals and he has won 8 of his last 9 and has allowed 5 earned runs in 17+ innings vs the Brewers. He has a decent 3.12 era over his last 3 starts. Much has been made over the Cardinals 4 game losing streak in game sixes. Look for that to end tonight as they have a date with Texas. Take the Cardinals.
Kelso
50 Units Green Bay Packers -14
RICHIE CARRERA
25 Dimes Philadelphia -3
Popular pick: Yes, it is. But that is no reason to stay away from this one. I don't buy into the motivation factor, because while Philly will be fighting for their season, when is the last time the Skins were at home against a bitter rival touting a 3-1 record. Now, what I do buy into (to some degree) is statistics. The team with the better statistics USUALLY wins games. If not for a slew of Mike Vick mistakes this year and your typical serving of Andy Reid at head coach, the Eagles should have only 1 or 2 losses. They have dominated teams statistically this year and it is only a matter of time until they start compiling some wins for their efforts. I DO NOT think this Philly team is "great" or a "dream team". As I pointed out in my power rankings; Philly possesses talent at the skill positions. They are weak at both lines and bad at stopping the run and that usually doesn't bode well... Fortunately for them, they have an offense that SHOULD be able to compensate for their short-comings IF they can limit their mistakes. I guess this just goes to show that you can have all of the All Pro corners that you want, but if you can't stop the run, you have a problem.. Also, I know that I am late to this party, but employing an O-line coach as your Defensive Coordinator even though he has zero experience coaching defense is like hiring a community organizer to be the .... Never mind. At the root of this play is a very exploitable Redskins defense; one that Vick and McCoy should have no problem finding paydirt against. I actually think that this is a line that the Eagles can block and corners that Philly's receivers can beat one-on-one with ease. Washington has put together great Defensive numbers against the likes of Arizona, St. Louis, NYG and a battered Dallas team... I don't think that this trend continues as I am expecting a bit of a blowout. I think that this is a rare example of when the sharps move the same directions as the public, resulting in a 3 point line movement. Jump on the right side and let's bank a 25 dimer.
10 Dimes Jacksonville +13
The Jags always play the Steelers close. More importantly, MJD gets to go up against a Pittsburgh defense that has had trouble stopping the run. Also, look for Jones-Drew to gash the Pittsburgh defense by hauling in passes out of the backfield. While I don't fully trust rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to solve the Steeler zone blitz, I do think that he is competent enough to limit his mistakes and get the ball out quickly. With a big game from MJD, I expect the Jags to (I hate saying this phrase) keep it close. This one breaks a few of my rules (Rookie QB on the road in hostile environment to name one example), but I think it is a one possession game in Pittsburgh today.
10 Dimes Indianapolis +7
While the Bengals are admittedly a much better team than I expected this season, they haven't faced pash-rushers like Mathis and Freeney. Indy has lost their last 4 games by 1 possession and this may be their chance to steal one on the road. I expect this to be a closer matchup than many expect with the Colts in position to win late. (Buy the hook if you must)
JACK HOWARD
10 Dimes Detroit -4
Calvin Johnson hauled in five catches for 130 yards last week. Look for big numbers again for Megatron as he goes up against the 23rd ranked passing defense. Both teams are off to great starts but I still question the talent level for the 49ers. Matthew Stafford, Ndamukong Suh, and Calvin Johnson are proving they are a legitimate contender for the NFC North. Prediction: 27-17 Detroit
10 Dimes Atlanta -3.5
Evan Altemus
2* Tampa Bay +4.5
New Orleans is notorious for barely beating weaker divisional opponents on the road or losing to them, and I expect this game to be no different. Tampa Bay is coming off of an embarrassing road loss last week against San Francisco, so they will be focused on this game. Look for Tampa to cover in a loss or win the game outright.
Pat Hawkins
Vikings at Bears
Pick: Under 42
The Donavan McNabb offense doesn't really scare too many defenses, Peterson will get plenty of carries since he is the real threat to score, look for the Vikes to pound the ball all day since they don't want McNabb turning the ball over. The Bears have been decent on offense, look for them to run the ball as well since the Vikes defense has been tough against the pass the last few weeks. These teams are very familiar with one another so look for this game to be hard fought and low scoring.
Chase Diamond
100 Dime NY Giants -3
50 Dime St. Louis Rams +14.5
40 Dime San Francisco 49ers +4.5
30 Dime Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
30 Dime Jacksonville Jaguars +13