Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, October 17,2010

SIXTH SENSE

BEST BETS

YTD 20-13-1 +16.80% (19-14-1 +10.50%)

3% SAN DIEGO -7.5
3% KANSAS CITY +4.5
3% NEW ORLEANS -4
3% NY JETS -3 -120
3% SAN FRANCISCO -6.5
3% MINNESOTA -1.5
3% NEW ORLEANS/TAMPA BAY OVER 43.5

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.1
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3

San Diego -7.5 ST LOUIS 45

SD lost at Oakland last week, 35-27, and for the third time in three road games, allowed their special teams to fail them. They also turned the ball over three times, including twice in the red zone. With all that, they dominated the line of scrimmage, out passing Oakland 9.2yps to 6.0yps and out gaining the Raiders overall, 7.1yppl to 4.8yppl. They passed the ball 17 times more than Oakland to skew the overall numbers slightly. The Rams were beaten pretty handily at Detroit, 44-6. They did out rush Detroit4.6ypr to 3.4ypr but were out passed 6.7yps to 4.6yps and lost the turnover battle 0-3.

SD averages 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 8.7yps against 6.7yps and 6.8yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.7yps against 5.3yps and 4.3yppl against 4.9yppl. St. Louis averages 3.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.1yps against 6.5yps and 4.5yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.1yps against 5.6yps and 5.4yppl against 5.0yppl.

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SD by 15.5 points and predict about 40 points. The Chargers have lost three road games (0-3) but it’s just about all because of poor special teams plays. They lost week one at KC by giving up a kick return for a td and another return that set up KC in great field position. In Seattle, they allowed two kick off returns for touchdowns. Last week it was two punts blocked that led to scores. In addition to that they have turned the ball over. SD is my top rated team from the line of scrimmage, while the Rams are my worse rated team from the line of scrimmage. When SD doesn’t allow special team favors to the opponent and isn’t turning the ball over in crucial spots, they have dominated their opponents, winning by 25 and 31 points, albeit, both at home. The Rams are certainly better than they were last year but they didn’t fare very well at home against top competition last year, losing by 19, 28, 36, 5 and 8 points. This game is likely to be similar to those games. SAN DIEGO 30 ST LOUIS 16

HOUSTON -4.5 Kansas City 45

KC lost at Indy by 10 points but they played well from the line of scrimmage. As expected, they out rushed Indy, 4.2ypr to 3.1ypr. They were out passed 5.4yps to 4.9yps but holding the Colts to 5.4yps when they average 7.2yps is a strong effort. Overall, they out gained Indy 4.6yppl to 4.5yppl. Houston was badly out played at home by the Giants. They were out rushed 3.7ypr to 1.6ypr, out passed 7.1yps to 4.6yps and out gained overall, 5.6yppl to 3.8yppl.

KC averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.2ypr against 3.8ypr, 5.8yps against 6.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.7yppl. Houston averages 5.1ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.7yps against 6.7yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl.

I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Numbers favor KC by three points and predict about 39 points. The Chiefs are underrated in my book. They are rushing the ball extremely well and the defense has played outstanding, including holding down a still good Colts offense last week. Meanwhile, Houston hasn’t performed as well on offense this year, although they are still good, but their defense continues to be a big issue for them. Since the beginning of 2009, Houston has faced five teams at home that are above average rushing the ball. The results have not been kind to them. They lost 7-24 to the Jets, 24-31 to Jacksonville, 17-20 to Tennessee, 13-27 to Dallas and 10-34 to the Giants. Here comes another solid rushing team that also happens to play great defense. When you get a team who is an underdog and their defense is better than the opponents offense, that usually fares pretty well for the underdog. KANSAS CITY 23 HOUSTON 16

NEW ENGLAND -3 Baltimore 45

Baltimore defeated Denver at home handily, 31-17. They out rushed Denver 5.0ypr to 3.0ypr and rushed the ball for 233 yards on 34 more rushing attempts than Denver. Denver did out pass Baltimore 7.9yps to 7.0yps and tossed 13 more pass attempts. The larger amount of rushing attempts by Baltimore and more passing attempts by Denver gave Denver the overall edge at 6.7yppl to 5.7yppl. When we last saw NE, they were defeating Miami on Monday night, 41-14, thanks to a +4 in turnover margin and a bevy of special team mistakes by Miami. NE was out rushed 4.8ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed 6.5yps to 5.4yps and out gained overall, 6.0yppl to 4.5yppl.

Baltimore averages 3.6ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.3yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. New England averages 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.8yps against 5.7yps and 5.9yppl against 5.1yppl.

NE qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 85-42-9. Baltimore, if you can get +3 or more points would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 286-196-22, including 4-1 this year. Numbers favor NE by four points and predict about 48 points. There is an under situation that applies to this game, which is 42-13-1. As you can see, I have situations and value going in opposite directions making this game a tough call. Baltimore lost here last year in the regular season, 21-27, but had a chance late in the game but dropped a ball in the end zone. They came back and destroyed NE in the playoffs, 33-14. NE can put up points at home, having scored at least 25 points in 10 of their last 12 games. Obviously, they will play their first game without Randy Moss this week. Baltimore has also allowed a decent amount of points on the road to teams with good passing games. They have allowed 26, 27, 33, 27, 23 and 14 points since last year for a median of 26.5 points. They also can score points on the road against bad defenses, which NE has. They have totaled 31, 21, 16, 21 and 33 since last year when facing poor defenses on the road. I think the best play here is the over, although there is the under situation and I will call this a three point game and let the line dictate which way I lean. Tough to lean much further with a NE defense that is not good and when the underdog defense is better than the other teams offense, that’s not a good sign for the favorite. Must still respect the value and situation on NE. NEW ENGLAND 26 BALTIMORE 23

New Orleans -4 TAMPA BAY 43.5

The Saints came up short at Arizona last week but that was mostly due to four Saints turnovers. They out rushed Arizona, 3.9ypr to 1.7ypr, out passed them 7.2yps to 4.6yps and out gained them overall, 6.0yppl to 3.4yppl. Arizona scored 20 of their 30 points on drives of 34 yards or less or turnovers. TB went to Cincinnati and scored 10 points very late in the game to escape with a 24-21 upset win. They out rushed Cincinnati 5.7ypr to 5.3ypr and out passed them 7.0yps to 5.8yps. Overall, they out gained Cincinnati 6.5yppl to 5.6yppl.

NO averages 3.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.3yps against 5.2yps and 5.2yppl against 4.8yppl. TB averages 3.9ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.4yps against 5.5yps and 5.7yppl against 4.8yppl.

The Saints qualify in my turnover table, which is 412-263-18. Numbers favor NO by one point and predict about 47 points. NO badly out played Arizona from the line of scrimmage last week but the turnovers killed them. Meanwhile, TB has played one good team this year and that was Pittsburgh, at home, and they were destroyed. NO isn’t nearly as good as Pittsburgh but they can certainly score points. And, when facing what I rate as the worse defense in the league, the Saints offense should be able to get going a little better than they have up to this point. NO isn’t having any problems throwing the ball this year. They are really struggling running the ball but a TB defense that is giving up huge chunks of yards should be the perfect recipe for NO. The Saints have scored at least 20 points in every game against below average defenses and the 20 against Arizona would have been much more if they could have scored more than one time in four red zone trips. Meanwhile, TB should be able to get to at least 17 points, if not more in this game. At anything 44 or less, this game stands an excellent chance to go over the total. NEW ORLEANS 30 TAMPA BAY 20

PHILADELPHIA -2.5 Atlanta 42.5

Atlanta played well at Cleveland last week and got a break when Seneca Wallace left with an injury, bringing in the less mobile and turnover prone Jake Delhomme. Delhomme was intercepted twice. Atlanta out rushed Cleveland 5.3ypr to 2.4ypr, out passed them 5.8yps to 5.3yps and out gained them overall, 5.5yppl to 4.3yppl. Philly and Kevin Kolb came up big at SF last week. They out rushed SF 4.6ypr to 3.4ypr, were out passed 7.1yps to 6.5yps and out gained 5.8yppl to 5.7yppl. A 5-1 (+4) turnover margin greatly aided Philadelphia.

Atlanta averages 4.1ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.2yps against 5.7yps and 5.5yppl against 5.0yppl. Philadelphia averages 5.4ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.0yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.7yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 6.1yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl.

Philadelphia qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 383-240-18 and 154-79-8. Numbers favor Philly by 8.5 points but those numbers also reflect Vick’s numbers. Kevin Kolb will get this start. I went against Philly last week because Kolb was starting and he actually played a good game. With recent injuries to both lines for Philly, Kolb starting, who I still don’t have a ton of confidence in, I can only lean their way but can’t make them a best bet. PHILADELPHIA 23 ATLANTA 20

NY GIANTS -10 Detroit 44

Detroit came up big in their first victory of the season in romping the Rams 44-6. Detroit was out rushed 4.6ypr to 3.4ypr but out passed the Rams, 6.7yps to 4.6yps. Overall, they out gained the Rams 5.3yppl to 4.6yppl and benefited from a +3 turnover margin. The Giants pulled a big upset at Houston last week 34-10. They dominated the game, out rushing the Texans 3.7ypr to 1.6ypr, out passing them 7.1yps to 4.6yps and out gaining them overall, 5.6yppl to 3.8yppl.

Detroit averages 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 5.5yps and 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.5yps against 5.8yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. NY averages 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.1yppl against 5.2yppl.

The Giants qualify in a letdown situation, which is 113-39-3 and plays against them here. Numbers, however, favor the Giants by 15 points and predict about 50 points. The situation working against the Giants is very strong but Detroit has allowed at least 20 points in 30 of their past 35 games. The Detroit defense hasn’t been good again this year and I rate the Giants as my second best team from the line of scrimmage. I would have to get at least 13 or 14 points to consider Detroit in this game. NY GIANTS 30 DETROIT 23

CHICAGO -6 Seattle 38

Seattle was last seen laying an egg at St. Louis in a 20-3 loss. They were out rushed 3.1ypr to 2.7ypr, out passed 5.8yps to 4.7yps and out gained overall, 4.8yppl to 4.0yppl. Chicago played without Jay Cutler last week and survived. They out rushed Carolina 5.2ypr to 3.4ypr. Both teams were terrible throwing the ball, with Chicago averaging 1.3yps and Carolina 1.7yps. Chicago threw four interceptions while Carolina threw three interceptions. Overall, Chicago out gained Carolina 3.9yppl to 2.4yppl.

Seattle averages 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 2.7ypr against 3.5ypr, 6.5yps against 6.7yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Chicago averages 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 5.6yps and 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.4yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl.

I don’t have any situations in this game. Numbers favor Chicago by six points and predict about 30 points. Seattle has really struggled on the road since the beginning of last year. In games not involving St. Louis, they have allowed at least 23 points in those eight games and at least 31 points in seven of those eight games. And, in those same games on the road against teams other than the Rams, they have failed to top 20 points, including no more than 17 points in seven of those eight games. The Bears haven’t allowed more than 20 points this year and no more than 17 points at home. Knowing Seattle is likely to give up at least 23 points and maybe into the 30’s, that doesn’t give them much of a chance in this game. CHICAGO 24 SEATTLE 13

GREEN BAY -3 Miami 43.5

Miami last played on Monday night two weeks ago and gave the game away to NE with miscues on special teams and four turnovers. They won the game from the line of scrimmage, out rushing NE 4.8ypr to 3.7ypr, out passing them 6.5yps to 5.4yps and out gaining them overall, 6.0yppl to 4.5yppl. GB blew a lead at Washington last week, in large part to several key injuries. GB out rushed Washington 9.2ypr to 2.4ypr, thanks in large part to a 71 yard run but they still averaged over 5 yards per rush without that long run. They were out passed 6.0yps to 5.4yps and out gained Washington overall, 6.4yppl to 5.0yppl.

Miami averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.3yps against 6.3yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.8ypr, 5.5yps against 5.7yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. GB averages 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl.

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor GB by eight points and predict about 35 points. Those numbers are based on a somewhat healthy GB team. Boy oh boy are the Packers banged up. Consider they have lost their top running back (Grant), one of their top receiving threats (Finley – TE), will play without RT Tauscher (although Bulaga is a capable back up). On defense, they are playing without two starting defensive lineman from last year (one from this year Pickett), without their best linebacker (Matthews) and two starting linebackers overall because Nick Barnett is out as well. Brandon Chillar, who is a capable back up and sometimes starter is also out. In the secondary, they are already without Al Harris and Atari Bigby from last year and lost Morgan Burnett who replaced Bigby. Nick Collins is hobbling around as well. While they need to win every game, this game, being a non-conference game is not as important as next weeks game against the Vikings. Miami brings a brutal rushing attack, although they are below average this year, and should look to pound the ball and then go over the top. If they can control the ball and limit the amount of time GB’s offense has on the field, they can walk away with this victory. This game could end up being higher scoring because Miami should be able to put points on the board. GB is usually good for at least 27 at home. MIAMI 30 GREEN BAY 27

PITTSBURGH -13.5 Cleveland 37.5

Cleveland had a chance last week but Seneca Wallace went down and Jake Delhomme couldn’t deliver. Delhomme was intercepted twice. Atlanta out rushed the Browns 5.3ypr to 2.4ypr, out passed Cleveland 5.8yps to 5.3yps and out gained Cleveland, 5.5yppl to 4.3yppl. The Steelers come off their bye week following a home loss to Baltimore 17-14. In that game they out rushed the Ravens 3.1ypr to 2.6ypr but were out passed 6.6yps to 5.5yps. Overall, they were out gained 4.9yppl to 4.2yppl. Ben Roethlisberger gets his first start of the season for Pittsburgh.

Cleveland averages 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.9yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. Pittsburgh averages 4.3ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.0yps against 5.8yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 2.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl.

Cleveland qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 143-85-5. They also qualify in my turnover table, which is 412-263-18. Cleveland also qualifies in another contrary situation, which is 46-18-0 (4-1 this year). Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 14 points and predict about 35 points. Ben Roethlisberger gets his first start of the year after his suspension. Colt McCoy also gets his first start of his career for Cleveland. The Browns have been decent this year but it’s very hard to imagine a rookie quarterback on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. Pittsburgh has won five of the past six here between these two by at least 11 points, four of those six by at least 13 points. I’ll respect the situations and call this a 14 point game and let the line dictate my lean. PITTSBURGH 24 CLEVELAND 10

NY Jets -3 DENVER 41.5

The Jets got away with a victory on Monday night over Minnesota last week. They did enough early on and were able to hold on in the end. NY out rushed Minnesota 4.8ypr to 4.0ypr but were out passed badly, 6.3yps to 3.8yps. Overall, NY was out gained 5.4yppl to 4.2yppl but won the turnover battle, 3-0. Denver was smothered in Baltimore last week, 31-17. They were out rushed again, 5.0ypr to 3.0ypr but out passed the Ravens 7.9yps to 7.0yps. Overall, they out gained Baltimore 6.7yppl to 5.7yppl. Baltimore spent most of the day running the ball, rushing 34 more times than Denver, while Denver threw the ball 13 more times to help skew the overall numbers somewhat.

NY averages 5.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.1yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Denver averages 2.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl.

The Jets qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 453-307-21 and 383-240-18. Numbers favor the Jets by 2.5 points and predict about 44 points. This is a fundamental mismatch in my mind. The Jets should be able to run the ball down Denver’s throat and then pass when they want to. That should only be compounded knowing Denver is playing without Brian Dawkins and Andre’ Goodman in the secondary. Dawkins back up McBath is also out. They also lose their best pass rusher in Robert Ayers and already lost Elmer Dumervil before the season started. They don’t run the ball well and even though they can pass the ball and Revis may miss this game, this should be too much for the Broncos. Denver lost their only other home game to a good team, the Colts, 27-13. While the Jets overall passing numbers are not great, that’s more of a reflection of them not being able to throw against the great defenses. Against NE, Miami and Buffalo, they averaged 6.1yps, 9.1yps and 6.6yps so they haven’t had any problems with the poor defending pass defenses. NY JETS 27 DENVER 17

SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 Oakland 41.5

Oakland came away with a big home win over divisional rival SD last week but they were out played from the line of scrimmage. Special team miscues and two Charger turnovers inside the red zone did in SD. Oakland was out passed 9.2yps to 6.0yps and out gained overall, 7.1yppl to 4.8yppl. SF lost the turnover battle 5-1 and in doing so the game also against Philadelphia last week. They were out rushed 4.6ypr to 3.4ypr but did out pass Philly, 7.1yps to 6.5yps. Overall, SF out gained Philly 5.8yppl to 5.7yppl.

Oakland averages 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. SF averages 3.7ypr against 3.7ypr, 5.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl.

SF qualifies in a solid contrary situation, which is 67-20-4. Numbers favor SF by six points and predict about 48 points. The 49ers have really struggled to put together four solid quarters but they have the better offense and better defense in this match up. The situation is a strong situation and the line is fair. If there was ever a time for SF to win a game this is it. SAN FRANCISCO 30 OAKLAND 17

MINNESOTA -1.5 Dallas 45

Dallas lost a game they couldn’t afford to lose at home last week to Tennessee 34-27. They did out rushed Tennessee 6.1ypr to 5.9ypr and out passed the Titans, 7.1yps to 5.8yps. Overall, because they threw the ball 24 more times than Tennessee, they out passed the Titans, 6.8yppl to 5.8yppl. Minnesota started out terrible against the Jets and then finally turned it on but it was too little too late. They were out rushed 4.8ypr to 4.0ypr but out passed NY 6.3yps to 3.8yps and out gained the Jets overall, 5.4yppl to 4.2yppl. A -3 in turnover margin also helped to do the Vikings in.

Dallas averages 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Minnesota averages 4.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.1yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl.

Minnesota qualifies in my turnover table, which is 412-263-18. They also qualify in a game five situation, which is 32-7-1. That particular situation plays on teams who are desperate and playing at home, which is exactly what Minnesota is doing. Vikings also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 383-240-18 and 479-305-21. Numbers favor Minnesota by 3.5 points and predict about 33 points. Favre is banged up but I can’t imagine him not playing and I have to figure they will be a little bit better offensively with Moss having another week to get acclimated with the offense. The biggest reason for playing Minnesota is the solid situations and value on their side. But, Dallas has struggled on the road against good defenses since last year. They have scored 10, 20, 7, 17, 3 (against Minnesota) and 7 points. That averages about 11 points or a median of 8.5 points. One could argue Minnesota is having problems scoring points but they should be able to score at least 14 points at home, which is probably enough to get the cover. And, while the Vikings offense has certainly been a question mark this year, their defense has played terrific. The under looks pretty strong as well. MINNESOTA 17 DALLAS 7

Indianapolis -3 WASHINGTON 44

Indianapolis got away with a victory last week but it wasn’t easy. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 3.1ypr. They did manage to out pass KC but it was close at 5.4yps to 4.9yps. Overall, KC out gained Indy, 4.6yppl to 4.5yppl. The Redskins were able to come from behind to defeat GB, partly because GB suffered numerous injuries. GB out rushed Washington 9.2ypr to 2.4ypr. The ‘Skins were able to out pass GB 6.0yps to 5.4yps but GB out gained Washington overall, 6.4yppl to 5.0yppl.

Indy averages 3.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 7.2yps against 6.7yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 6.5yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Washington averages 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.6ypr, 6.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl.

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Washington by 3.5 points and predict about 38 points. I had Washington last week and probably got a little lucky with them thanks to numerous GB injuries. But, they have competed well at home this year, defeating Dallas out right, jumping out to a huge lead on Houston, only to give it up in the end and then doing just the opposite last week by coming back from a 10 point deficit to win over GB. They have won two of their three home games with the only loss by three points. Indy has lost two of three on the road but I respect them enough to stay off this game despite the value lying with Washington. Washington does bring the slightly better offense and defense. WASHINGTON 20 INDIANAPOLIS 17