Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, October 18,2009

Pointwise Phone Service

3* G Bay, Baltimore, New England, Over G Bay/Detroit, Houston

2* Denver, Philly

Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 17-13 +8.10%

3% CINCINNATI –5
3% MINNESOTA –2.5
3% NEW ORLEANS –3.5
3% CHICAGO +3.5
3% DENVER +3.5
3% BALTIMORE/MINNESOTA OVER 44.5

WASHINGTON -6.5 Kansas City 37.5

KC took Dallas to OT last week but the game wasn’t nearly as close, from the line of scrimmage, as the final score. Dallas dominated KC 5.8ypr to 2.5ypr, 9.9yps to 5.2yps and 8.2yppl to 4.1yppl. A minus two in turnovers for Dallas kept the score closer than it really was. Other than the tying score in the 4th quarter, the other KC scoring drives consisted of -5, 16 and 36 yards. Washington lost at Carolina and for the sixth straight week will take on a team with zero wins on the season. The Redskins out rushed Carolina 3.1ypr to 2.7ypr but were out passed 5.8yps to 4.4yps and out gained overall 4.1yppl to 3.8yppl. The fact they held Carolina to only 4.1yppl is impressive but they also only gained 3.8yppl and that is not good. For Washington, 14 or their 17 points came on scoring drives of 13 and 1 yard. Hardly an impressive day on offense for Washington. KC has been horrible on offense, gaining just 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.7yps against 5.9yps and 4.2yppl against 5.1yppl. They have allowed a whopping 7.5yps against 6.7yps and 6.1yppl against 5.7yppl overall. Washington hasn’t been able to run the ball all year, gaining just 3.7ypr against 4.6ypr. They have been slightly below average throwing the ball and average 5.2yppl against 5.6yppl overall. On defense, Washington is allowing 4.8yppl against 5.0yppl. KC qualifies in a winless situation, which is 84-37-6. Numbers favor Washington by 6.5 points and predict about 31 points. Washington failed to score more than 13 points in six of their last eight games last year. They have failed to score more than 17 points in their first five games this year. So, in 11 of their last 13 games, they have failed to score more than 17 points. Not good when you are laying 6.5 points in a game. Weak lean to KC and the under. WASHINGTON 17 KANSAS CITY 14

CINCINNATI -5 Houston 45.5

Houston lost a tough game last week in Arizona, falling behind by 21 in the first half, only to tie it up late, lose the lead on an interception return and then get stuffed on fourth and goal at the one yard line at the end of the game. They were out rushed in the game 2.8ypr to 2.1ypr. The game featured two teams who can’t rush the ball although Houston’s defense hasn’t been able to stop the rush either and finally did a decent job. Both teams passed the ball well, with Houston averaging 7.4yps and Arizona averaging 7.6yps. Cincinnati got a late score to win at Baltimore but Cincinnati was very impressive in their win over Baltimore. They out passed Baltimore 8.2yps to 5.3yps and overall out gained the Ravens 6.1yppl to 5.0yppl. Houston averages just 3.0ypr against 3.7ypr but 7.3yps against 6.8yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense, it has been trouble again for the Texans. They allow 5.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 5.6yps and 6.0yppl against 5.0yppl. Cincinnati has been average on offense, although they do average 4.4ypr against 3.8ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl. The defense allows just 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. Cincinnati qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 100-51-4. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 543-414-30 and 452-295-21. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 6.5 points and predict about 46 points. Houston went to Tennessee and won by three in an impressive win although Tennessee is winless on the season. Other than a huge win over hapless Oakland, they haven’t come within seven points of any other team this year. Cincinnati hasn’t exactly blown out their competition but they have faced some pretty good teams in Denver, GB, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, along with a bad Cleveland team. Houston also has a history of not performing well on the road against better than .500 competition. They are 5-26 SU on the road against .500 or better teams (excluding week one of the season) with an average loss of -12.6 points. The average score is roughly 27-15 in those games. They were 1-5 SU two years ago and 0-2 SU last year so even though their teams have been better the last few years, they have still struggled for the same reasons as this year, they can’t play defense and struggle to run the ball. CINCINNATI 30 HOUSTON 17

PITTSBURGH -14 Cleveland 38

Cleveland got away with a win at Buffalo last week, no thanks to their passing game, which completed just two passes and 1.2yps. They ran for 171 yards at 4.2ypr. Overall, they averaged just 3.3yppl. They allowed just 4.2yppl against an anemic Bills offense. Pittsburgh controlled their game at Detroit, averaging 7.9yps and 6.4yppl to just 5.1yps and 4.9yppl for Detroit. They did allow Detroit 110 yards rushing at 4.4ypr. Cleveland averages just 4.1yps against 5.8yps and 4.0yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 5.1ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Pittsburgh averages 7.4yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 5.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Pittsburgh qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 108-38-3 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 12.5 points and predict about 34 points. Cleveland struggled badly last year at the end of the year in their effort to score touchdowns. They have played three games this year (60% of their games) where they have scored six or fewer points. They have lost by 21 and 31 points on the road this year. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game by more than 10 points this year (although they did lead SD by 28-0 before winning by 10). Pittsburgh has won four the last five here by at least 11 points. I will lean slightly towards Cleveland simply because of the situation but it’s a weak lean. PITTSBURGH 24 CLEVELAND 13

MINNESOTA -2.5 Baltimore 44.5

Baltimore struggled in their 17-14 loss at home to Cincinnati last week. The Ravens two scores came on an interception return and a screen pass to Ray Rice, who then took it almost 50 yards for the touchdown. Other than that, their offense was not good. They did average 4.6ypr but just 5.3yps and 5.0yppl overall. Cincinnati rushed for 142 yards (first 100 yard rusher on Baltimore in a long time) at 4.2ypr, threw for 8.2yps and averaged 6.1yppl overall. Minnesota blew out the Rams 38-10 but the Rams did turn the ball over four times inside the Minnesota 10 yard line. Vikings were out rushed 4.1ypr to 3.7ypr but out passed St. Louis 9.9yps to 7.0yps and 7.1yppl to 5.7yppl overall. The Vikings defense has given up yards this year but some of that has been in garbage time. They have played pretty well when they have had to. Baltimore averages 4.9ypr against 4.6ypr and 6.5yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. They aren’t bad on offense and considerably better than the last few years. On defense, however, they still stuff the run, allowing just 3.0ypr against 3.7ypr but are allowing a whopping 7.0yps against 5.7yps and 5.3yppl against 4.8yppl overall. Teams have been taking the run away from Minnesota and they average just 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr and just 6.5yps against 6.6yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. Minnesota has thrown the ball extremely well the last two games so they are capable of moving the ball but haven’t had to until these last two games. They allow just 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr but 6.1yps against 5.1yps and 5.2yppl against 4.7yppl. So, much like Baltimore, this defense is giving up plenty of yards, which is very uncommon for both teams. Vikings qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 82-40-7. Numbers favor Minnesota by nine points and predict about 53 points. Minnesota has scored at least 27 points in every game this year and Baltimore has allowed at least 26 points in both road games. Minnesota has totaled at least 51 points in each home game and Baltimore has totaled at least 48 points in each road game. Laying the short price at home, I like the value with Minnesota and the over. If Minnesota gets to 24 points, we can’t lose both wagers. MINNESOTA 30 BALTIMORE 20

JACKSONVILLE -9.5 St Louis 42

Jacksonville got throttled badly last week in Seattle. I missed a best bet opportunity on Seattle last week. Jacksonville gained just 2.5ypr to 3.6ypr for Seattle. They were out passed 7.6yps to 4.4yps and out gained 5.3yppl to 3.8yppl. The Rams gained 400 yards but a lot of that was done in mop up duty. They were out gained 9.9yps to 7.0yps and 7.1yppl to 5.7yppl. They turned the ball over inside the Minnesota 10 yard line three or four times, killing their drives. They rushed the ball for 122 yards at 4.1ypr. They have rushed the ball well this year. The Rams average 4.4ypr against 3.8ypr but just 4.8yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow a whopping 7.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.1yppl. Jacksonville also runs the ball well, averaging 4.6ypr against 4.0ypr but just 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville allows 7.3yps against 6.7yps and 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. The Rams qualify in a general situation, which is 51-22-1 and a winless team situation, which is 84-37-6. Jacksonville qualifies in a negative situation based on their poor play last week, which is 90-43-4 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Jacksonville by 11 points before accounting for the situations and predict about 37 points. The Rams have been shutout twice on the road this year and have failed to score more than seven points in their three road games. Tough to lean towards the Rams here but I will trust the systems and lean that way. JACKSONVILLE 23 ST LOUIS 16

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 NY Giants 48

Should be a very entertaining game between these two. NO comes off their bye week and win over the Jets. Meanwhile, the Giants come off their romping over Oakland. No need to look at the Giants numbers last week but they destroyed a very bad Oakland team. Giants are starting to rush the ball better, averaging 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and continue to throw the ball extremely well, averaging 8.2yps against 7.0yps for an overall total of 6.2yppl against 5.7yppl. Their defense allows 4.8ypr against 4.1ypr but just 3.7yps against 5.5yps for a total of 4.2yppl against 4.9yppl. The Saints continue to throw the ball well, averaging 7.5yps against 5.6yps but they are running the ball remarkably well this year, averaging 166 yards at 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr for a total of 6.2yppl against 5.7yppl. The defense has also been very special this year, allowing just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.2yps against 5.8yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. NO qualifies in home momentum situations, which are 80-39-7 and 82-40-7. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 543-414-30, 148-76-7 and 452-295-21. Numbers favor NO by 6.5 points and predict about 53 points. We know how good the Giants are but this game will go a long way in telling just how good the Saints are. I expect NO to show up and play very well, laying a short number at home. NEW ORLEANS 33 NY GIANTS 20

Carolina -3 TAMPA BAY 40

TB was beaten badly in Philly last week as they were out passed 9.2yps to 4.1yps and out gained overall 6.8yppl to 4.0yppl. Carolina won at home by scoring the games final 18 points to defeat Washington by three but missed on the cover laying 3.5 points (or more if you waited until Sunday to bet). Washington scored 14 of their 17 points on drives of 13 yards or less and also stopped Carolina on a goal line stand as well. TB is below average on offense, averaging just 4.8yps against 5.2yps and 4.6yppl against 4.8yppl. The defense is giving up huge passing yards, allowing 8.lyps against 6.8yps and 6.2yppl against 5.8yppl. Carolina has struggled badly on offense, gaining just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.1yps against 5.7yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. On defense they have done well against the pass, allowing just 5.5yps against 7.1yps but struggled against the rush, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr. Overall, they allow 5.2yppl against 5.9yppl because of their strong pass defense. TB qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 452-295-21. Numbers actually favor TB by 4.5 points and predict about 40 points. TB won here last year but had lost five straight here in this series prior to last year. I’ll lean with TB because of the value and the situation, but don’t quite have enough confidence in them to make them a Best Bet. CAROLINA 21 TAMPA BAY 20

GREEN BAY -13.5 Detroit 48

Packers come off their bye week looking to fix their offensive line problems, which have seen them allow 20 sacks in their first four games. GB signed Mark Tauscher this week although it’s doubtful he will play this week. They also get Chad Clifton back at left tackle. These next two games are important for GB as they come against Detroit and Cleveland and then a rematch against Minnesota. The Vikings, meanwhile, begin a tough stretch against Baltimore, Pittsburgh and then Green Bay. It’s very conceivable GB could be playing Minnesota for first place in three weeks so these games are important (GB would actually still be a half game out of first if Minnesota loses one of their next two games because they have played an extra game). Detroit covered at home against Pittsburgh last week and out rushed Pittsburgh 4.4ypr to 3.9ypr but were out passed 7.9yps to 5.1yps and out gained overall 6.4yppl to 4.9yppl. Unsure who will start at qb for Detroit this week but it probably doesn’t matter much as both qb’s, while different, are about as effective. Calvin Johnson may miss this game at receiver. Detroit averages 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl, which is an improvement over last year but the defense has really struggled allowing 4.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 6.8yps and 6.3yppl against 5.6yppl. GB averages 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl and allow just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr but also allow 6.8yps against 5.8yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. They get Atari Bigby back at the safety position this week, which should help their pass defense. GB qualifies in a negative situation, which is 79-34-2 based on their poor defensive performance two weeks ago and plays against them here. Detroit qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 398-253-22. Numbers favor GB by 10 points and predict about 58 points. Detroit has now scored at least 21 points in each of their last seven road games and those games have totaled at least 49 points or more. GB has totaled 55, 53 and 53 points in each of their last three games. GB has won 17 straight games here and in Milwaukee against Detroit. Weather should be fine for this game. There is value to the over in this game and Detroit has showed they are capable of putting up points on the road. I would look to the over but it looks like Calvin Johnson will probably miss this game and that makes in a big difference in the Detroit offense. GB doesn’t have a good history of laying points so the dog looks live here as well. GREEN BAY 33 DETROIT 27

Philadelphia -14 OAKLAND 41

No problems for Philly last week as they rolled over TB. Philly gained 9.2yps to just 4.1yps for TB and 6.8yppl to 4.0yppl overall. Oakland was destroyed at the Giants last week. They were out rushed 5.4ypr to 2.4ypr, giving up 220 yards rushing to NY, out passed 11.0yps to 3.4yps and out gained 7.4yppl to 2.8yppl. Oakland can’t rush the ball, averaging just 3.3ypr against 4.4ypr, can’t throw the ball, averaging 4.0yps against 5.9yps and 3.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They can’t stop the run, allowing 4.3ypr against 3.8ypr, can’t stop the pass, allowing 7.2yps against 6.9yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Philly averages 7.0yps against 6.6yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow just 4.6yps against 5.4yps and 4.2yppl against 4.8yppl. Oakland does qualify in a couple of bounce back situations, which are 50-19-1 (won with Detroit last week) and 73-34-1. Numbers favor Philly by 13 points and predict about 44 points. Situations point towards Oakland. I can’t lean towards a club as bad as Oakland. PHILADELPHIA 31 OAKLAND 13

SEATTLE -3 Arizona 47

Seattle displayed the dominant defense they have been know to show at home last week. They shutout Jacksonville for their second shutout at home this year. Granted the first shutout was against the lowly Rams. They out rushed Jacksonville 3.6ypr to 2.5ypr, out passed them 7.6yps to 4.4yps and overall 5.3yppl to 3.8yppl. Arizona jumped out to a big lead over Houston and then had to hold on in their 28-21 win. They out rushed Houston 2.8ypr to 2.1ypr. While it’s nice to hold any team to 2.1ypr, Houston isn’t exactly lighting it up this year, averaging 3.0ypr overall. And, they only gained 2.8ypr against a Houston defense allowing 5.1ypr. Passing numbers were close at 7.6yps for Arizona to 7.4yps for Houston. Overall, they out gained Houston 6.2yppl to 5.9yppl. For the season, Arizona averages just 3.1ypr against 4.1ypr and 6.4yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense, they have been tough against the rush, allowing just 2.9ypr against 3.8ypr but allowing 7.3yps against 6.8yps and 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl. Seattle got Hasselbeck back last week and they now average 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.1ypr but those numbers are greatly inflated based on 159 yards of rushing by Frank Gore, which was two rushes. Certainly can’t forget those numbers but they aren’t likely to happen again. They allow just 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl overall. There are situations going both ways in this game. Numbers favor Seattle by nine points and predict about 38 points. Seattle lost here last year but had won five straight years prior to last year against Arizona. Have to lean towards Seattle with the value but with the situations going both ways, I will just lean their way. SEATTLE 21 ARIZONA 17

NY JETS -9.5 Buffalo 37.5

Buffalo out gained Cleveland from the line of scrimmage last week and allowed just two completions for Cleveland. They out gained Cleveland 4.2yppl to 3.3yppl but three costly turnovers did them in for a putrid 6-3 loss to Cleveland. The Jets were out gained at Miami 9.4yps to 6.8yps and 6.5yppl to 5.6yppl. Buffalo averages just 5.2yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. The Jets have struggled to throw the ball this year averaging just 5.8yps against 6.5yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been solid, allowing 5.4yps against 6.3yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Buffalo qualifies in my turnover system, which is 398-253-22. Numbers favor the Jets by 10 and predict about 31 points. The Jets have failed to win here against Buffalo by more than four points over the last five years. Hard to back Buffalo but I’ll weakly lean that way. NY JETS 22 BUFFALO 13

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 Tennessee 43.5

The situations greatly favored Tennessee last week, especially on the rushing side, but I couldn’t pull the trigger after Tennessee’s egg laying game at Jacksonville the week before. They also out rushed Indianapolis last week 4.3ypr to 2.5ypr but were out passed, as expected, 7.0yps to 4.3yps and out gained overall 5.5yppl to 4.3yppl. NE lost an exciting battle at Denver in OT in a game they were out rushed 4.1ypr to 3.6ypr, out passed 6.4yps to 6.1yps and out gained 5.7yppl to 5.0yppl overall. Tennessee’s numbers aren’t bad as they average 5.3ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.4yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense they only allow 2.8ypr against 3.8ypr and 7.1yps against 7.1yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.7yppl. They also have a couple of key injuries in the secondary again this week as well. NE averages 6.2yps against 5.6yps and 5.2yppl against 4.9yppl. NE allows 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Tennessee qualifies in a winless situation, which is 84-37-6 as well as my turnover table, which is 398-253-22. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 543-414-30, 148-76-7 and 452-295-21. Numbers favor NE by eight points and predict about 44 points. NE has won just one game by more than six points this year, while Tennessee has lost just one game by more than seven points. If it weren’t for the injuries in the secondary, I would consider Tennessee but I worry NE’s passing attack could take advantage of that and make them pay. NEW ENGLAND 26 TENNESSEE 20

ATLANTA -3.5 Chicago 45.5

Atlanta came off their bye last week and stuck it to SD in an easy 45-10 victory. That game was never in doubt as Atlanta rushed for 148 yards at 3.7ypr but did allow 100 yards rushing at 5.7ypr. They threw for 10.3yps although 90 came on one play that was broke for a long touchdown. Without that play, they still averaged 7.7yps. They held SF to just 4.4yps, which is less than the 5.0yps they average for the season. This week the Bears come off their bye week following their dismantling of the Lions 48-24. Chicago has struggled to rush the ball this year, averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr and is averaging 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Their pass defense has been very good, allowing just 5.4yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Atlanta has also struggled to rush the ball, averaging just 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr but does average 7.7yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. Their defense has really struggled, allowing 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 5.4yps and 5.4yppl against 4.9yppl overall. Chicago qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 452-295-21. Numbers favor Atlanta by just 2.5 points before the situation and predict about 43 points. Chicago came here last year (I had Atlanta) laying three points and scored with 11 seconds left in the game to go ahead 20-19, only to give up a last second field goal to lose 22-20. Now, the line has moved 6.5 points from last year’s game. These teams haven’t changed that much. Value and a solid situation with the dog carry the better defense. I like the Bears here as long as I can get 3.5 or more points. CHICAGO 23 ATLANTA 20

SAN DIEGO -3.5 Denver 44

I don’t understand the love for the Chargers from the linemaker in this game. SD does come off their bye this week, while Denver travels after two huge home wins over Dallas and New England. The Broncos were very sharp in their win last week, out rushing NE 4.1ypr to 3.6ypr, out passing them 6.4yps to 6.1yps and 5.7yppl to 5.0yppl. The Broncos continue to get no love. They average 4.6ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has been amazing, especially when you consider just how bad they were last year, allowing just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.9yps against 5.6yps and 4.2yppl against 5.0yppl. SD, meanwhile, has averaged just 2.7ypr against 3.7ypr but 7.4yps against 6.7yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The defense has been terrible, allowing 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.6yps against 5.9yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. Denver qualifies in three solid fundamental rushing situations, which are 543-414-30, 148-76-7 and 452-295-21. SD qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 148-51-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Denver by 9.5 points and predict about 41 points. SD has had Denver’s number here the past three years but prior to that they went four straight years of losing or winning by three or less points and six of seven years losing or winning by three or less points. This is a different Denver team now, one that is lead by Josh McDaniels, who was at NE prior. SD struggled mightily over the years trying to defeat NE and McDaniels may just bring more trouble for SD. The offenses are pretty close to even while the defenses are light years apart. Live dog, with the better defense, tremendous value and solid situations in their favor. DENVER 26 SAN DIEGO 16

Steven Budin

25 Dime - Steelers

DB Sports Consultants

5* Denver ML +160

Denver has finally proved they are one of the elite teams in the NFL after beating New England in OT last week. This team is for real thanks to a rookie head coach in Josh McDaniels and the steady play of Kyle Orton. We look for Denver to go 6-0 and 3.5 games up in the AFC West going into their bye week. San Diego has yet to prove they have a defense giving up more points than they have scored YTD. The bye week does the Chargers no good as the Broncos can smell blood in the AFC West. 17-6 Broncos.

5* New England -9 -110

New England looks to rebound from an OT loss to Denver 20-17 at home against an 0-5 Tennessee club. Look for New England to score early and often in this matchup as New England is just too good to be only favored by 9 points at home against a winless team. Look for Tom Brady to catch fire against a team that has given up an average of 28 points per game so far this year. 38-13 Patriots.

4* New Orleans / New York Giants OVER 47

There has been a lot of talk about these two defenses, but neither of these two defenses have faced an offense as dynamic and explosive as both of these offenses. The fact remains that these two clubs can score and can score quickly. We see a close track meet in this one and expect to cash sometime in the third quarter. 35-32 New Orleans.

3* Kansas City ML +230

Kansas City picks up their first win this season as we collect on a nice + number here. The Chiefs have played well despite their 0-5 start and very well could be 2-3 right now if balls bounced their way. Look for Matt Cassel to launch the ball around on this poor Washington defense. 24-13 Chiefs.

2* Detroit +13.5 -110

Green Bay hasn’t showed us enough to cover a 13.5 line against anybody. This Detroit team is playing much better of late and I like them to keep this game close regardless of if Culpepper or Stafford is under center. 24-20 Green Bay.

Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections

NON CONFERENCE NFL CRUSHER PLAY OF THE YEAR

Philadelphia -14

The Boys

NFL Underdog Game of the Week

Denver Broncos +3½ -120

Tim Trushel

20* Houston

Tennessee

Karl Garrett

50 DIMER - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

I know all about the Giants "road warrior" mark, and how tough Big Blue has been on the road over the past few seasons, but this is the spot they get their hats handed to them!

New Orleans wants to show New York, and the NFL that they are for real, and with a perfect 4-0 mark both straight up, and against the spread, this is the game the Saints have circled on their calender.

The timing couldn't be better for the home team, as they played at home on October 4th, had their bye week last week, and come back to the field with another home game today!

Throw into the mix Eli Manning's plantar faciitis is no joking matter, and I think the Giants are ripe for finally for a loss on the road.

Manning's receiving corps is still very wet behind the ears, and the Giants secondary has been nicked up for the past couple of weeks. Couple that with the fact Drew Brees is having an MVP-like start and well, this one shapes up to be a solid New Orleans win, and cover.

New Orleans to improve on their 8-2 home spread mark their last 10 games.

Lay the small home wood with the Saints.

BRYAN LEONARD

Houston at Cincinnati

With just a couple of different occurrences these two teams would be thought of completely different. While Houston has seemed to find ways to lose games they should win the Bengals have been very fortunate to have a 4-1 record. When looking at the stats these two teams are virtually even yet the Linesmaker and the public feel the Bengals are the better squad.

Houston sits at 2-3 off another late game loss last week. They had first and goal from the Arizona one yard line and failed to punch in the tying touchdown. They had a similar game earlier this season against Jacksonville. Now we find the Texans in a desperate state as they simply cannot afford to drop to 2-4 in a division with Indianapolis.

Cincinnati lost a heartbreaker in their opener against Denver, but they have bounced back strong. The Bengals are off three straight divisional rival victories with all the games being decided in the last minute. They beat Pittsburgh and Baltimore on last second drives in the fourth quarter and they defeated Cleveland on the last play in overtime. They are sure to have a letdown here after getting such an emotional jump against those three divisional opponents. Cincinnati has really struggled in the role of favorite as of late dropping 9 of 11 giving points. They haven't posted a winning home favorite spread mark in over eight years! Houston on the other hand is a solid 6-3 ATS as a road underdog.

The spot is terrible for the Bengals and history shows they are not a team you want to back in this role. Houston with the inflated number gets the cash.

PLAY HOUSTON

Kyle Bales

15* Saints -3

10* Vikings -2.5

5* Redskins -6.5

Al DeMarco

20 Dime - Minnesota

Hindsight is 20-20. Baltimore opened the season 3-0, but two wins were at home against cupcakes, 0-4 Kansas City - who the Ravens beat and covered against in a 38-24 victory thanks to a last-minute touchdown - and Cleveland, a team that just snapped a 10-game SU losing streak last weekend. In between, they went to San Diego and needed a tremendous Ray Lewis stop in the waning moments of the game to hold on for a 31-26 win against an injury-riddled, one-dimensional Charger team.

The past two weeks have brought losses, 27-21 on the road versus the Patriots, an average to good team at best, and 17-14 at home versus a Cincinnati squad that needed overtime to beat the woeful Browns one week earlier.

Defensively, this Baltimore team gets more recognition for its past accomplishments than its current play. This is a team that's allowed 24 points to KC, 26 at San Diego, and 27 at New England. Its pass defense was carved up by Phillip Rivers, who threw for 436 yards for the Chargers, despite having no ground game to rely on. And the Raven rush defense couldn't stop Cincinnati's Cedric Benson last Sunday as the Bengal tailback gained 120 of his team's 403 total yards.

If Rivers and Benson could enjoy that type of success against Baltimore, why can't Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson do the same playing at home?

Minnesota, despite a 5-0 record, is clearly getting no respect from the oddsmakers with this price being so short. But again, lines are set to get equal betting action; they're not meant for judging which team is actually better quantitatively. And in this case, the public perception of Baltimore's defense being better than it is, and its overwhelming denial of the possibility of the Ravens losing a third straight game following a 3-0 start, is working in our favor.

Last Sunday the Vikings were facing the ultimate trap game. Coming off a short week and an emotional Monday night victory against Green Bay, they found themselves at 0-4 St. Louis in an obvious letdown game. Yet, Minnesota hammered the winless Rams, 38-10, to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the season.

My side selections involving these teams this season - both premium and free picks - are 4-1 on each. If you have Minnesota at -3 or -3 1/2, go ahead and purchase some insurance by buying down the 1/2 point in either case.

DOUBLE DRAGON

NYGIANTS +3.5
VIKINGS -2.5
PATRIOTS -9
SEAHAWKS -3
FALCONS -3

RON RAYMOND

5* New York Giants +3.5

2* Chiefs / Redskins Over 37