BRANDON LANG
100 DIME - NY GIANTS
15 DIME - BALTIMORE RAVENS
15 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
15 DIME - ATLANTA FALCONS
100 DIME - NY GIANTS - (If 3, buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2, never get beat by the hook) - They didn't fail me in the Super Bowl, and I am quite confident they won't fail me today.
This team thrives on the road. They love it, and today will be another chance for them to show just how good on the road they are.
The numbers only tell have the story.
They are 18-3 ATS their last 21 on the road overall, and on a 31-10 ATS run their last 41 overall.
This team has been a cash machine for over 2 1/2 years, and I see nothing the Saints bring to the table that leads me to believe they will slow them down.
Let's start with the coaching matchup. Sean Payton, 0-4 SU and ATS out of the bye week for New Orleans versus Tom Coughlin, Super Bowl winner, and 10-1 ATS last 11 as a dog.
Advantage Giants.
I know the Saints have put together a nice run here to open the season, but I guess anybody would have done that with any talent they have faced at the QB position so far this year.
Let's see, rookie Matthew Stafford of the Lions in week one, Kevin Kolb of the Eagles in week two, who by the way threw for 378 yards against them! Trent Edwards in week 3, and rookie Mark Sanchez in week 4.
Do you see anybody of the caliber of Eli Manning? Exactly.
I also don't see a team above with the offensive line and run game of the Giants either.
The Giants have become more dominant each week they have played but as I said at the top, it's one thing to be 8 and 10 point favorites on the road and another thing entirely to flat out be an underdog.
This is a live dog today that as you can see from past experience, loves to bark and bark loudly. Just ask Dallas.
New York doesn't beat itself. They make the plays that need to be made and the biggest thing of all when they are on the road, they pressure the QB.
Although I came big with a 50 dimer on the Saints over the Jets, figuring rookie Mark Sanchez would implode and he did, I walked away from that game lucky to have won it.
The Saints offense really couldn't do much against Rex Ryans Jet's defense as 17 of the Saints 24 points were set up by Jet turnovers.
That is not going to happen today.
Look for Brees to be pressured all day long and come the 2nd half of this game when the Giants offensive and defensive lines have been pounding you all day, that is when New York is at their best.
I believe the Giants will win the time of possession battle and from top to bottom are the more physical team and the more experienced team to handle a big game like this one today.
I went to war with the Giants in the Super Bowl as a 100 dime winner, and I will gladly back them here +3 1/2 points as my 100 dimer today.
All Giants.
15 DIME - BALTIMORE RAVENS - (if 2 1/2 you buy to 3, and if 3 you buy to 3 1/2) - Let's see, other than the San Francisco game that the Vikings should have lost, the other 4 opponents they have played are a combined 4-15.
When the Bengals, from the same division of the Ravens, went into Green Bay and hung up over 30 on the Packers, I have waited for this matchup here.
Same AFC division for Ravens, and same NFC division for Minnesota, and I have no problem rolling the dice with the Ravens today.
The difference in this game will be the pressure the Ravens defense gets on Favre and believe me, they will get pressure.
Although the Ravens have dropped their last 2 ATS, they are still 9-4 ATS last 13 under Harbaugh while the Vikings are on a complete opposite run ATS of 4-9 at home.
Minnesota has been living on borrowed time playing the likes of the Browns, Lions, Rams and even the Packers who would have taken them down if not for the stupidity and ignorance of Aaron Rodgers.
The bottom line is this is the most physical team the Vikings would have faced all year long and just as the Niners stood toe to toe with them the Ravens will do the same.
Ravens are the play.
15 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Tom Brady breaks out today.
If David Garrard can throw for close to 300 yards on the Titans defense, and Peyton Manning did throw for over 300 yards on this Titans defense, what do you think Brady is going to do today?
Seriously, the Titans have no secondary. 3 starters out. 2 rookies starting. Ranked dead last in the NFL.
If ever the Patriots needed a feel good game to break out offensively this is the team you want to face on this day.
They were done at 0-2. Even more so at 0-3. They went into Jacksonville needing a win to really save their season and allowed the Jags, a team that just lost 41-0 at Seattle, to destroy them 37-17.
If the Jags, with David Garrard and an average receiving corp at best can light you up by 20 points and the next week Peyton Manning lights you up by 22, I can't imagine how quickly Tom Brady wants to get after this Titans defense off the loss to Denver.
The Patriots handled Matt Ryan and the Falcons at home 26-10 and trust me folks, I think we all know just how much better the Falcons are than the Titans.
Tennessee is so far gone in this season, so in shock of the events the first 5 games they have had this year that if you think they are going to be able to match the Patriots intensity, well guess again.
Forced to play from behind yet another week, Kerry Collins will implode again and the Patriots should roll by 21 points or more in a nice New England blowout.
Lay the wood with the Patriots.
15 DIME - ATLANTA FALCONS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2, and lay 3) -
So the Bears are feeling good about themselves are they? Not for long.
It's easy to feel good when you beat the Steelers at home without their best defensive player. Win at Seattle who was playing without their best offensive player, Matt Hasselbeck, and beat the Lions.
Trust me folks, the Falcons are not the Lions.
This is another big step up game for the Bears and in my opinion, they will fail miserably.
Atlanta showed me something last week and coming back home where they have handled their business to the tune of 2-0 SU and ATS with wins and covers over the Dolphins and the Panthers.
This is great value with the Falcons as home laying this small a number and it's only because of the hype of the Bears 4 game winning streak but as I pointed out above, not a really impressive considering 3 of the 4 teams they faced.
Atlanta has covered 7 of their last 10 at home while the Bears under Lovie Smith just 1-4 ATS last 5 as a road dog.
Coaching, QB play, running game and home field will all be the difference as the Falcons pull away and win by double digits courtesy of a late Cutler INT.
Falcons go to 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year.
I am not sold on the Bears with Jay Cutler as their QB. Not at all.
FREE SELECTION - ARIZONA CARDINALS
Carlo Campanella
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots
The Tennessee Titans owned the best record in the NFL last season at 13-3, but were just 3-7 SU the past few years when All-Pro DE Albert Haynesworth wasn't in the line-up. They traded Haynesworth to Washington and their defensive unit can no longer pressure the opposing QB. In fact, they opened the season at 0-5 without Haynesworth and are now 3-12 without him! Bad news for the Titans as they play in New England this Sunday against QB Tom Brady, who dismantles teams when he has time to throw the football. Pats coming off a 17-20 OT loss in Denver, but we find QB Brady 19-7 ATS after losing his previous game, including 1-0 ATS this season, beating Atlanta 26-10 after losing to the NY Jets. Titans troubles continue for another week.
10* Play On New England
Guaranteed Pick: Carlo Campanella
Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots Oct 18 2009 4:15PM
Prediction: New England Patriots
Reason: The Tennessee Titans owned the best record in the NFL last season at 13-3, but were just 3-7 SU the past few years when All-Pro DE Albert Haynesworth wasn't in the line-up. They traded Haynesworth to Washington and their defensive unit can no longer pressure the opposing QB. In fact, they opened the season at 0-5 without Haynesworth and are now 3-12 without him! Bad news for the Titans as they play in New England this Sunday against QB Tom Brady, who dismantles teams when he has time to throw the football. Pats coming off a 17-20 OT loss in Denver, but we find QB Brady 19-7 ATS after losing his previous game, including 1-0 ATS this season, beating Atlanta 26-10 after losing to the NY Jets. Titans troubles continue for another week.
10* Play On New England
Paid and confirmed,teaser.
Nite Owl Sports
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
5 units Over 48 (Game of the Month)
Green Bay has been a “cash cow" L2Y as a home over, with a 12-6 over record at home last two seasons, despite the fact that 7 of those 18 home games were in the months of December and January, when the field at Lambeau is aptly called the "frozen tundra." And despite the QB change LY from Favre to Rodgers, the Pack retained their home over tendencies, going 5-3 to the over in their 8 regular season HGs (they did not make the playoffs) and averaging 48.5 total ppg in those 8 games. Moreover, the Pack was 9-3 to the over L2Y in division games (of which this one is), both home and away. And TY the pack is 3-1 to the over, averaging 54 total ppg in their last three, after “shaking the rust” off of their offense in their opener, an ugly 21-15 win over Chicago in GB. So adding that Chicago snorefest and GB’s 55 point home over against Cincy to their recent home totals record (with Rodgers at QB), we have 6-4 to the Over , with an average of 48 total ppg in those ten recent relevant HGs.
GB’s QB Aaron Rodgers has compiled some pretty amazing #s so far TY (1100 YP on 60% completions, with a 6/1 TD/INT ratio), especially considering the pressure he has been under, having already been sacked 20 times TY. And when he is not under a lot of pressure from a heavy pass rush, he is at his best, as he showed in a nearly flawless performance (270 YP on 60% completions, for two TDPs and no INTs) in Pack’s 36-17 win over the SL Lambs, a game in which he was sacked a season low two times. And not only is Lions’ secondary is a mess (with opposing quarterbacks having put up a passer rating of 119.7 with a 73.3 percent completion percentage against the Lions, both ranking worst in the NFL), but there are no real pass rushers (Hunter is one of three players with two of the Lions’ ten total sacks in five games) to help the problems in pass coverage. And while lions’ new HC Jim Schwartz prefers to play man-to-man coverage behind the blitzing of the 4-3 scheme he brought from the Tennessee Titans, he quite simply doesn’t have the personnel to pull it off with the Lions’ limited defensive personnel -- cornerbacks Anthony Henry and Phillip Buchanon have been benched at least once because of poor performance, and nickel back Eric King (shoulder) was lost for the season this past week. As summed up by one NFL scout, “They don’t have any blue-chip players, they just don’t have it. Sims, he’s OK, he’s one of the better guys. Delmas does some good things, the rookie. Peterson isn’t what he was. The defensive line is very average. It’s not a very impressive group to say the least.” That’s the most likely reason that Detroit is already 2-0 TY to the over on the road, not only with 72 points scored in both roadies (at NO and Chicago), but also having been torched on defense for 45 points by Saints and 48 by Bears. So we’re confident that both Aaron Rodgers and GB should have a big day on offense.
But it takes sufficient offensive input by both teams to push the total # of points over the total, so we need to explore the likelihood that the Detroit offense will generate enough points for that to happen. The big news for Detroit, especially on offense, as the week goes on, is whether the No. 1 pick of this year’s NFL draft, quarterback Matthew Stafford, will play after missing last week against Pittsburgh because of a dislocated knee cap. Lions head coach Jim Schwartz left open the possibility that Stafford could practice sometime this week (Wed and Thurs) and play Sunday, but that also could be gamesmanship to force the Packers to prepare for both Stafford and his back-up, the veteran Daunte Culpepper. And the Lions have a bye next week, so if there’s much doubt about Stafford’s physical condition they might be inclined to sit him at GB and then get him get an extra week of R&R (rest and recovery) with the bye. If he plays, Stafford has shown some big-league talent, particularly in Lions’ streak-busting home win over Wash, but mixed in with his three touchdowns are six interceptions, and whether his injured knee will prevent him from being the same confident young QB who beat Washington two weeks ago is a major question. But even if it’s Culpepper, he had some decent passing #s (completing 23-37 for 282 YP, with one TDP and one INT) in LW’s 28-20 loss to Pitt, but was also sacked a whopping seven times for 57 yards in losses, due to both his limited mobility on surgically repaired knees and poor pass protection by an OL that has already allowed 17 QB sacks TY (almost as bad as league leading GB). But with GB having one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL TY (just five sacks in four games), Culpepper will have enough time to check most if not all of his receivers before being flushed out of the “pocket” or being forced to throw, so we expect that even he would have a good day passing against GB. And whoever is at QB for Detroit will have one big-time weapon in WR Calvin Johnson (6-feet-5, 236 pounds), a rising star who has already 22 receptions TY despite being the focus of coverage. He injured his knee last week against Pittsburgh but appears to have a decent shot at playing this week. “Tremendous talent,” an assistant coach said. “Height-weight-speed guy who can go get the football. You have to be conscious of where he is because he can go make plays, he can go get the ball out of the air, and run past you. He’s a bigger, more physical looking Randy Moss; the same kind of speed though.” Unfortunately, all we know at this point about Johnson’s playing status for this game is that he is officially listed as “questionable,” and we won’t likely know any more until official injury updates are released Friday afternoon. But since we are afraid of the totals line moving up past this key totals # of 48 as the week wears on, we don’t have the luxury of waiting until then (Friday PM) to release this Over pick.
And while the Lions may not yet be any offensive powerhouse, their defense has been bad enough to help” them to a 20-6 Over record in their last 26 roadies over L3+Y, a 13-6 Over record L3+Y in division games, and a 7-3 Over record in road division games L3+Y.
Finally, a check with the “weather man,” always an important step for Over plays, especially in cold weather venues like green bay as we move deeper into the season, reveals a forecast of mostly clear skies, with game time temps in the mid 50s, which is where we also expect the scoring to be by midway through the fourth quarter.
So there it is -- our 5 unit NFC Totals Game of the Month on Over 48, our biggest totals pick so far this season.
Underground Sports Connection
100* New England Patriots -9.5
ATS
7 Units Atlanta
6 Units Arizona
5 Units Green Bay
5 Units Giants
Evan Altemus
Kansas City vs. Washington
Washington should be laying this many points to a Kansas City team that has shown improvement through every game this season. The Redskins are a complete mess right now. Usually in the NFL, teams will have rebound games after poor performances, however Washington simply doesn’t have the players and coaching capable of producing dominant wins. Kansas City’s Matt Cassel is playing better, and the offense is beginning to click. Last week they took Dallas to overtime and were in position to win outright before Dallas got some late scores. Washington’s offense has scored a high of only 17 points this season, despite playing all winless teams. Their offensive line is a complete mess right now, and they will be without their starting left tackle Chris Samuels. Look for Kansas City to keep this game extremely close or win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION KANSAS CITY
Tony George
Giants vs. New Orleans
Yes the Saints are for real, but not better than the Giants who are by far the NFLs best road team. Look at who New Orleans has played. Jets at home with a rookie QB, the hapless Bills (no TD passes for Brees in either game), Detroit and Philly without McNabb and Kolb had 3 interceptions in that game. Hardly a resume of a powerhouse team, NY played Oakland last week, which is like a bye week, and they have a power running game, a balanced and physical offensive attack and the best front 4 in the NFL on both sides of the ball and also have a great QB. I am grabbing the points. NY 17-4 ATS last 21 in the NFL against teams with a winning record.
Play 1 Unit on NY
Marc Lawrence
Baltimore vs. Minnesota
The Ravens travel to Minnesota of back-to-back losses looking to get back on the win track today. Aside from enjoying good success in this series (5-1 ATS last six), Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in October when playing off back-to-back SU and ATS losses. On the other side, the Vikings are 0-5 ATS against opponents off a SU favorite loss. With Minnesota off an 'inside-out' win over the Rams in which they were outgained, 400-377, and just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in games off a double-digit ATS win against AFC opponents off a SU favorite loss, look for the Ravens to pull of the upset.
Rob Homyak
Buffalo vs. Jets
Bills scored just 20 points in last three games.
Bills are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
NY Jets are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Buffalo
NY Jets are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
NY Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
NY Jets are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
5 Units on N.Y. Jets
Lenny Del Genio
Baltimore vs. Minnesota
We're not nearly as impressed with the Vikings 5-0 start as the rest of America seems to be as the victories have come against the likes of the Browns, Lions, 49ers, Packers and Rams. Only San Francisco has a winning record out of that group (and they needed a last second miracle to beat them) while the other four have combined to go 4-15 SU. Baltimore, meanwhile, is going to be highly motivated for this matchup off BB losses to New England and Cincinnati. A physical AFC team, the Ravens are well balanced on offense with the passing of QB Flacco and running of RB Rice. This is almost "must win" territory after a 3-0 start and the defense is going to be highly motivated after allowing its first 100+ yard rusher in 39 games last week to the Bengals' Cedric Benson. Look for them to key even more than they would have on Adrian Peterson. By the way, in the last three games, Minnesota has tallied just 94, 63 and 89 yards rushing as a team. They are just 5-11 ATS off a SU win, so their 3-1 ATS mark in that role this year is something of an anomoly. Under HC Childress, they are just 11-16 ATS at home. They are also just 2-9 ATS vs. teams that outscore opponents by an average of 6pts or more per game. The Ravens have covered their last four pre-bye week games. Baltimore is our NFL Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Mark Franco
Arizona at Seattle
Pick: Seattle -2.5
The Seahawks now have QB Matt Hasselbeck back healthy after his four touchdown game last week. This Hawks defense has two home shut-outs on the young season. The Cardinals offensive is not in gear and I feel the will struggle here on the road again. I think there is a big Home edge again here for the Seahawks.
Kirkwins
4* Carolina -3
4* Raiders Under 40.5
3* Dodgers +161
Oskeim Sports
5 Star Club
Baltimore Ravens (+3) (-115) over Minnesota Vikings*
*The Ravens are a 5* investment at +3 or more (at -130 odds or better).
Baltimore takes the field with a vastly underrated offense that is averaging 27.6 points per game this season, including 4.9 yards per rush attempt, 6.0 yards per play and 13.8 yards per point against teams that combine to allow just 22.7 points per game, 4.6 yards per rush play, 5.8 yards per play and 15.8 yards per point to mediocre offensive squads. Moreover, the Ravens' offense has remained explosive on the road this season where they have averaged 26 points per game, including 5.0 yards per rush play and 13 yards per point. Meanwhile, the Vikings' stop unit has performed below-average at home where they have allowed 24 points per game, including 265 passing yards (8.5 yards per pass play; 66.1% completion rate) and 6.4 yards per play to teams that combine to average just 5.7 yards per pass attempt and 5.0 yards per play. And, despite last week's misleading 38-10 win over the hapless Rams, the Vikings allowed over 400 total yards and were the beneficiaries of four St. Louis turnovers inside the red zone. Let's also note that Baltimore is a profitable 5-1 ATS off consecutive losses versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win and 8-2 ATS as underdogs off a straight-up favorite loss versus a non-conference opponent.
Invest on - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Baltimore) - off an extremely close home loss by three points or less, after the first month of the season.
(74-39 since 1983; 65.5%)
This system is 9-2 ATS since 2004, 17-7 ATS since 2000 and 74-39 ATS since 1983.
Invest on - Underdogs or pick (Baltimore) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(38-14 since 1983; 73.1%)
This system is 5-0 ATS since 2004, 12-3 ATS since 1997 and 38-14 ATS since 1983.
From a technical standpoint, Minnesota applies to a terrible 21-78-3 ATS letdown system of mine that invests against certain home favorites off two or more consecutive SU and ATS wins, provided they are matched up against a non-conference opponent off two or more consecutive SU and ATS losses. In contrast, the Ravens fall into a terrific 45-7-1 ATS bounce-back situation that invests on certain NFL underdogs of three or less points, provided they are off back-to-back losses and are matched up against an undefeated opponent. I should also note that Minnesota is a money-burning 1-7 ATS after allowing ten or less points and 0-5 ATS versus an opponent off a loss as a favorite, whereas the Ravens are a solid 8-1 ATS on the road off SU and ATS losses in the month of October.
Finally, my math model actually favors Baltimore by one point in this game, which is significant in that my model does not take into account the above-referenced technical situations that strongly favor the Ravens. When taking into account the technical situations, the Ravens should be favored by nearly three points so we are getting excellent line value on the underdog this afternoon. With the public siding with an overrated Minnesota team that has played a much easier schedule, take Baltimore and invest with confidence.
Rating: 5*
New Orleans Saints (-3) (-120) over New York Giants*
*The Saints are a 5* investment at -3 or less (at -130 odds or better).
New Orleans is a profitable 14-5 ATS over the last two seasons, including 10-1 ATS as a favorite and 9-2 ATS when playing on artificial turf. Moreover, the Saints are a terrific 9-1 ATS at home versus .666 or greater non-division conference opponents, 3-1 ATS off back-to-back blowout wins, 5-2 ATS after consecutive wins and 4-0 ATS when installed as favorites this season. Aside from the technical situations, the Saints take the field with a vastly underrated defense that is allowing just 16.5 points per game, including 85 rushing yards (3.8 yards per carry), 5.5 yards per pass play and 4.9 yards per play to teams that combine to average 22 points per game, 4.2 yards per rush attempt, 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 5.3 yards per play. In addition, the Saints' defense has excelled at home this season where they have limited opponents to a mere 3.5 yards per rush play, 4.8 yards per pass play and 237 total yards (4.3 yards per play). While New Orleans' offense tends to receive all of the accolades from the talking heads on television, the Saints' defense remains one of the best stop units in the entire league.
The Saints also possess the superior offense that is averaging an impressive 36 points per game this season, including 5.0 yards per rush play, 7.7 yards per pass play and 6.3 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 23.7 points per game, 4.4 yards per rush play, 5.9 yards per pass play and 5.2 yards per play to mediocre offensive squads. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees takes excellent care of the ball (only 2 interceptions this season), and the Saints' offense is capable of striking at any time as they are averaging a remarkable 11.5 yards per point in 2009. While the Giants are certainly one of the best teams in football this season, they have struggled to stop the run, particularly on the road. In fact, New York is allowing 4.8 yards per rush play to teams that combine to average only 4.1 yards per rush play, including yielding 6.0 yards per rush attempt on the road.
According to my database, undefeated home teams playing with a week of rest are an incredible 28-8-1 ATS during the regular season. Let's also note that New Orleans applies to a solid 122-36-3 ATS statistical profile indicator of mine that is premised upon the Saints' powerful ground attack, whereas the Giants fall into a negative 27-84-2 ATS road situation that is 1-7 ATS in 2009. Take the Saints and invest with confidence
Coach Ron Meyer
20* Texans (+5½) over Bengals