WUNDERDOG
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Pick: Over 44
It looks like Michael Vick is going to play. Reports are that he practiced Wednesday and the swelling has gone down. With him in the game and trest of the Eagles playmakers, I expect the Eagles to score points here. They have posted 26 or more points in nine of their last 12 games. The Niners offense has been steadily improving. They come into this one averaging 23.3 points per game themselves, and the Philadelphia defense is not their strong suit. That was evident last game when they got pushed around. They haven't yet figured out how to best utilize Nnamdi Asomugha who hasn't adjusted very well to playing zone. The Eagles stop-unit has allowed 25.7 ppg in their last 13 games. The Eagles often find themselves in shootouts vs. winning teams. Under Andy Reid, they are 51-36 OVER vs. winning teams including 35-16-1 in their last 52 such games. The Niners have played six straight to the OVER vs. NFC teams and this series shows 6-1 to the OVER in the last seven meetings. Play the OVER
Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 14-6 +22.20%
3% DALLAS -2
3% PHILADELPHIA -9
3% MINNESOTA –2 No higher than –3
3% CHICAGO -6
3% MIAMI +7
3% BALTIMORE –3.5
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.5
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.5
DALLAS –2 Detroit 46
Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 496-316-22, including 6-2 this year as well as a 537-392-23 rushing situation, which is 10-4 this year. Numbers favor Dallas by two points and predict about 50 points. Dallas has the much better defense and won here last year against the Lions 35-19 as six point favorites with Jon Kitna as the quarterback. That game marked the last time Dallas has played a game that has been settled by more than three points. This is really the first good offense Detroit has played on the road this year. The last four good offenses they have played on the road, they have allowed at least 24 points, including the 35 to these Cowboys last year. This number was originally around five points before Dallas played on Monday night. While I think Detroit is definitely improved this year, they are being over valued. They were over valued last week in Minnesota and that cost them a cover and the same thing is happening here as they are getting less than three points against a team with a better defense and a better offense. DALLAS 31 DETROIT 21
New Orleans –7 JACKSONVILLE 45
Jacksonville qualifies in a week four negative situation, which is 51-27-2 and plays against them here. That situation basically plays against home teams in week four that were home week one and on the road the last two weeks. Numbers favor NO by 6.5 points and predict about 44 points. I don’t have much of an opinion on this game but Drew Brees versus Blaine Gabbert is not a fair match-up. The Jacksonville defense is improved this year but at home against good offenses, they have allowed at least 24 points in their last four games in that situation. Knowing they have really struggled badly trying to score (averaging just 10 points a game), that doesn’t bode well for them to stay in this game. NEW ORLEANS 27 JACKSONVILLE 17
PHILADEPHIA –9 San Francisco 43.5
Philadelphia qualifies in a contrary situation that plays on bad teams at home (defined by their record), which is 71-20-4. Numbers favor Philly by only 2.5 points and predict about 48.5 points. SF lost at Philly two years ago as seven point dogs, 13-27. The 49ers have struggled on the road recently against good teams (I still consider Philly a good team despite their record) as they lost last year by 21, 2, 18 and 27 points to good teams. The Philly defense should get better and against a very poor SF offense, I’m not sure SF can keep up with a good Philly offense. PHILADELPHIA 31 SAN FRANCISCO 14
Washington –2.5 ST LOUIS 43.5
I don’t have any situation on this game. Numbers favor Washington by a whopping 11 points and predict 44 points. The Rams won here against Washington last year, 30-16 but have struggled at home against teams above .500, losing to Baltimore last week and going just 1-2 last year with their only win over a 2-1 Seattle team that really wasn’t that good. The numbers favor Washington pretty strongly and they would qualify in a good situation if they were an underdog. I will lean their way based on line value. WASHINGTON 27 ST LOUIS 20
CLEVELAND –1.5 Tennessee 38.5
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Tennessee by five points and predict about 41 points. Cleveland has really struggled this year while Tennessee’s numbers look pretty strong so far. Tennessee did lose Kenny Britt for the season and that will hurt their offense but I still believe their offense is better than Cleveland and their defense is better as well. Cleveland was 0-2 last year as a favorite and lost again this year in that role in week one against Cincinnati. TENNESSEE 23 CLEVELAND 14
Buffalo –3 CINCINNATI 43.5
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Buffalo by .1/2 point and predict about 47 points. Buffalo won here last year 49-31 in a wild game that they trailed in big time and then stormed back for the convincing win. The Bills offense is better than Cincinnati’s while the defense is also slightly better. Cincinnati is an average team so far this year, getting points at home. While I think Buffalo is the better team I’m not sure they deserve to be favored by this much. With a weak lean, I will favor Cincinnati. BUFFALO 26 CINCINNATI 24
Minnesota –1.5 KANSAS CITY 39.5
Minnesota qualifies in a road situation, which is 129-58-5 as long as they aren’t favored by more than two points. Kansas City qualifies in a week four negative situation that is 51-27-2 and plays against them here. That situation basically plays against home teams in week four that were home week one and on the road the last two weeks. Numbers favor Minnesota by 6.5 points and predict about 37 points. The Vikings are simply the better team in this game. They have the better chance to establish the run game, which then will give them a chance to throw the ball as well. I don’t see KC doing much in the running department in this game and Matt Cassel has not shown an ability to throw the ball effectively this year. KC did look better last week but that should only serve to aid the Vikings as they plan to defense the KC offense this week. The Chiefs have lost their best offensive player in Jamaal Charles and one of their best defensive players in Eric Berry. They also lost their TE Tony Moeaki. Brandon Flowers may also miss this game, which would be a huge blow for KC as well. The Vikings are still a talented team with some playmakers. When they match up against a bad team like KC, those playmakers will make plays for them. MINNESOTA 23 KANSAS CITY 13
CHICAGO –6 Carolina 42.5
Chicago qualifies in a contrary situation that plays on bad teams at home, which is 71-20-4. Numbers favor Chicago by just two points and predict about 38 points. Carolina has the ability to score some points if Cam Newton can make things happen with his feet and avoid pressure but Newton is coming back down to earth as teams learn how to defense him. He also missed a lot of wide open receivers last week and if his accuracy doesn’t improve, it will be a long day for the Panthers. Chicago, with all their offensive problems, should be able to move the ball against a very poor Carolina defense that has lost some key players this year due to injury. Carolina has been pretty good throwing the ball this year but that will play right into the teeth of this Bears defense, which should make life more difficult for and inaccurate Newton. Carolina will also probably be without CB Chris Gamble. CHICAGO 27 CAROLINA 13
HOUSTON –3.5 Pittsburgh 45
Houston qualifies in a week four negative situation that is 51-27-2 and plays against them here. That situation basically plays against home teams in week four that were home week one and on the road the last two weeks. Numbers favor Houston by seven points and predict about 43 points. Both teams are pretty similar on defense but Pittsburgh has been much better on offense than Houston. Even though my numbers support Houston this is too many points to be laying against a good Steelers defense that is running the ball above average this year against a Houston defense that has been poor against the run. The Steelers are missing a couple of key offensive lineman in Legursky and Scott. HOUSTON 23 PITTSBURGH 20
Atlanta –4.5 SEATTLE 38.5
I don’t have any situation on this game. Numbers favor Seattle by ½ point and predict about 39 points. Seattle lost badly at home to these Falcons last year, 34-18 and they struggled against good teams at home last year. Against teams who were above .500 when they played them last year, they defeated Arizona (who we found out wasn’t that good), were blown out by the Giants, blown out by the Chiefs and blown out by Atlanta. Atlanta is only 1-2 this year but they are still a decent team. With that said, laying this many points on the road with a below average offense against a Seattle team that is playing good defense, is probably asking too much. ATLANTA 21 SEATTLE 18
NY Giants –1 ARIZONA 44.5
Arizona qualifies in a week four negative situation, which is 51-27-2 and plays against them here. That situation basically plays against home teams in week four that were home week one and on the road the last two weeks. Numbers favor Arizona by one point and predict about 46 points. I don’t have much of an opinion on this game. The Giants are still a little banged up but the Arizona defense has not been good this year and I expect the Giants to be able to throw the ball and if that happens they may be able to get their below average running game going as well. The over may be the better play in this game. The Giants could be missing one or two key defensive lineman in Justin Tuck and/or Osi Umenyiora. NY GIANTS 24 ARIZONA 21
SAN DIEGO –7 Miami 44.5
Miami qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 496-316-22 and 537-392-23. SD qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation,which is 129-58-8, and won against SD and Dallas last week. Numbers favor SD by 3.5 points and predict about 39 points. SD is simply overrated and nursing many key injuries as well. Antonio Gates will miss another game just like he did last week. Quentin Jammer is also likely to miss this game. They also lost Bob Sanders for the season earlier this week. Two other key defensive lineman, Castillo and Cesaire are out as well. Miami will probably be without Daniel Thomas at running back in this game but may get back some help in their secondary. The Dolphins have traditionally been good as a road underdog and with the situations, value and an overrated banged up Charger team laying a bunch of points, this looks like a good spot just like KC was for us last week. MIAMI 21 SAN DIEGO 20
GREEN BAY –12 Denver 46
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor GB by 8.5 points and predict about 48 pointsDenver should get back Elvis Dumervil and maybe Champ Bailey this week. D.J. Williams also looks likely to return. The Packers will be without Bryan Bulaga and Ryan Grant this week but should be able to cover for both. Denver expects to be much improved on defense if they get the above players back. The Broncos defense has been decent without them but it will still be difficult to stop GB. You can basically mark the Packers down for at least 27 points a game at home. Can Denver score at least 16 points to get a cover? Given the way the Packers defense has played this year, they may be able to. Not much of an opinion on this game. Lean towards the value and Denver. GREEN BAY 30 DENVER 21
New England –5 OAKLAND 55
Oakland qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 294-201-23 as long as they are getting at least three points. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 64 points. The Patriots are somewhat overrated but there’s no doubt they have a great offense but an equally bad defense that the Raiders should be able to score on. The Raiders defense will also allow points and knowing NE has scored at least 30 points in 11 straight regular season games, that means Oakland will have to score at least 27 points in this game to cover. The over may be the best bet in this game but Oakland’s ability and willingness to run the ball could cause possible problems to get this game over the total if they control the clock with their run game. The situation favors Oakland and NE has a couple of key injuries. I will lean towards Oakland and the over. NEW ENGLAND 33 OAKLAND 30
BALTIMORE –3.5 NY Jets 42
Baltimore qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 496-316-22 and 537-392-23. They also qualify in another rushing situation, which is 159-86-8 as long as they are favored by less than five points. They would also qualify in a home momentum situation if they are favored by three or less, which is 89-43-10. Baltimore also qualifies in a week four negative situation that is 51-27-2 and plays against them here. That situation basically plays against home teams in week four that were home week one and on the road the last two weeks. The negative situation isn’t nearly as strong as the situations in Baltimore’s favor. Numbers favor Baltimore by eight points and predict about 51 points. Baltimore is really playing at a high level right now and facing a Jets teams that has been just slightly above average. The value and situation in this game strongly favor a Ravens team that is much more balanced on offense than the Jets. Baltimore has a slightly better defense overall and is facing a Jets defense that has really struggled against the run. Meanwhile, on offense, it’s not even close. Both teams may throw the ball a decent amount in this game and with such a short number for the Ravens, this is a very solid play. BALTIMORE 30 NY JETS 21
TAMPA BAY –10.5 Indianapolis 40.5
Numbers favor TB by 9.5 points and predict about 40 points. TB, off their two consecutive wins, qualifies in a very strong negative situation, which is 115-40-3. The Colts also qualify in a contrary situation, which is 147-87-5. The situation playing against TB is very strong and there is enough value to play Indy but I just can’t play a team like the Colts with such a bad offense, on the road. If they get down, it may be tough for them to come back. With that said, they are getting a ton of points and there is no way I want any part of TB. TAMPA BAY 23 INDIANAPOLIS 17
Chip Chirimbes
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -1
Yes we are aware that the Lions are a team to be reckoned with this season but this is their second straight on the road and they won't get past the Cowboys who are getting better both physically and on the field.
Wunderdog
San Francisco / Philadelphia Over 44
Atlanta / Seattle Over 38
Denver / Green Bay Over 46
Cincinnati Bengals +3
Denver Broncos +13
Miami Dolphins +7
New York Jets +4
Jim Feist
25-Star Pro Shocker - Denver Broncos
Denver plays hard for new coach John Fox, with games decided by 3, 2 and 3 points. Denver has a decent QB in Kyle Orton (5 TDs, 3 INTs), and the defense is improved from last season, ranked in the middle of the pack. Newcomers cornerback Jonathan Wilhite and rookie linebacker Von Miller are tied for the team lead in sacks with two each. They are getting healthy for this game: Linebacker D.J. Williams and running back Knowshon Moreno took part fully in practice Thursday. Both are expected to play Sunday at Green Bay. It will be Williams' first game action since he suffered a dislocated elbow in the preseason. RB Willis McGahee is expected to start at running back, with Moreno splitting carries if he continues to show he's ready to go. The Broncos are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Green Bay is banged up, with right tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee), running back Ryan Grant (kidney) and cornerback Charles Woodson (foot) battling injuries. Bulaga and Grant are not expected to play. The Packers defense was great last season, but not as sharp so far, ranked 29th in yards allowed and 23rd in points allowed. The Packers are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and the Denver offense has enough to keep this close. Play the Broncos!
20-Star High Roller 'Total' Annihilator - Patriots/Raiders Over
Both defenses have huge weak spots, but both offenses are very good -- and uptempo. This is the second straight road game for New England, a team with an unstoppable offense and a leaky defense (like last year). QB Tom Brady (11 TDs, 5 INTs) has a slew of offensive talent to the highest scoring team in the NFL last season. Newcomer WR Chad Ochocino joins WRs Wes Welker and Deion Branch and the real threat of this offense is outstanding TE Rob Gronkowski. They looked sharp in a 35-21 win over San Diego, with 504 yards (378 passing), though the defense allowed 470 yards (372 passing) while forcing 4 turnovers. The linebacking group struggles in coverage, a contributing factor to San Diego coverting 10-of-12 third downs, including 6-of-6 in the second half. The Pats had a 21-0 lead at Buffalo Sunday but then collapsed in a 34-31 loss allowing 448 yards (369 passing). Brady threw 4 picks Brady and went 30 of 45 for 386 yards, but the banged up defense looked lost in the second half. The Over is 16-2 in the Patriots last 18 games as a favorite and they are 19-4 over the total in the Patriots last 23 games overall. Oakland (2-1 SU/3-0 ATS) is playing with some fire led by a dynamite ground game in RB Darren McFadden and an improving QB Jason Campbell (3 TDs, 1 INT) with new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who is a great addition. The rolled up 234 yards rushing in Sundays 34-24 win over the NY Jets (McFadden had 171). Denarius Moore scored on a 23-yard reverse , too, so they are tricky for this new offensive coordinator. A secondary that lost its best cover man (CB Nnamdi Asomughathis) offseason gets a tougher test this week. The only game they've lost was blowing a 21-3 halftime lead at Buffalo. They had plenty of offense (454 yards) but the defense was awful in a 38-35 loss at Buffalo, allowing 481 yards (217 rushing). The defense gave up 25 second-half first downs, 326 yards, 164 of which were running yards on 14 carries. The weather is perfect, so look for far more offense than defense; Play the Patriots/Raiders Over the total.
DOUBLE DRAGON
LIONS +3 (-130)
TEXANS -3 (-130)
SAINTS -7
REDSKINS -3
RAIDERS +7 (-130)
DOLPHINS +8
RAVENS -3 (-135)
Pointwise Phones
4* Patriots
3* Bears, Saints, Lions/Cowboys Over
2* Colts, Vikings, Patriots/Raiders Over
Platinum Plays
Premier Plays (Top Play)
Detroit
NE
500K Plays
Houston
400K Plays
Balt
NYJ/Balt OVER
Regular Plays
SF
Wash
Cincy
Minn
Atl
Miami
Den/GB OVER
Totals 4 U
Top Plays
Det/Dall OVER
NYJ/Balt UNDER
Regular Plays
Tenn/Clev UNDER
Buff/Cincy UNDER
Car/Chic UNDER
Pitt/Hous OVER
Atl?Seatt UNDER
NYG/Ariz UNDER
Mia/SD UNDER
GB/Den OVER
NE/OAK UNDER
Big Al
4* St Louis +1.5
4* Philadelphia -8.5
4* Cincinnati +3
4* Arizona +1
4* NY Jets +3.5
4* New England/Oakland Under 55
3* New England -4
3* New Orleans/Jacksonville Over 45
3* Tigers / Yankees Under
3* Cardinals / Phillies Under
Dom Chambers
80 Dime Houston Texans
30 Dime Patriots / Raiders Over
Jeff Benton
50 Dime Atlanta Falcons
10 Dime Patriots / Raiders Over
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
4* Chicago Bears
3* N.Y. Jets
2* Minnesota Vikings
2* Philadelphia Eagles
2* Pats/Raiders Over
PSYCHIC
ranks picks 1-5
2 units Denver +12
3 units Miami +7
5 units Pittsburgh +4 (WISEGUY)
THE WIZARD
ranks picks 1-20
3 units Milwaukee -157
3 units St.Louis +164
3 units Buffalo -3
5 units Arizona +1
10 units Chicago -6
10 units Baltimore -3.5
15 units Skins-Rams under 43.5
Great Lakes Sports
4* Pittsburgh Steelers
4* St Louis Rams
3* New England Patriots