Larry Ness
10* Min/KC Over
I’ve been in the handicapping business 28 years and have followed the NFL religiously since the mid-1960s and I never remember anything like what the Vikings have done these first three weeks of the 2011 season. The Vikings have led 17-7 (at San Diego), 17-0 (at home to TB) and 20-0 (at home to Det) in the first halves the last three Sundays. However, Minnesota has lost all three games while getting outscored by a combined 67-6 margin after intermission. It’s really hard to fathom. I have played each of Minnesota's first three games over, twice using them as my featured 10* NFL total. I lost in Week 1 at over 41 1/2 (24-17 final) and won in Week 2 over 40 1/2 (24-20 final). My Det/Min Over 44 was part of my Superstar Triple Play in Week 3 and I won that in a 26-23 OT final. I’m back on Minnesota as my “featured” total again this week and here’s why. Very few 0-3 teams have been ahead by double digits in each loss, yet that’s the case with the Vikings in 2011. The Vikings draw another 0-3 team here in KC and the Chiefs look like a mess. McNabb ranks 26th with his 78.1 QB rating but note that the last two weeks he’s averaged 219.5 YPG through the air, after that awful Week 1 performance of 39 passing yards. He’s been intercepted just once in 81 attempts on the season (showing good discipline), although he has been sacked eight times (not a likely problem vs the Chiefs: see below). Peterson is complaining about not getting the ball enough in the second half (with good reason) but he has 296 yards after three games, while averaging 5.1 YPC. The Vikings rank third in the NFL with 159.0 YPG on the ground (5.8 YPC) and have enough balance to score vs the Chiefs. KC’s pass D is allowing 260 YPG, 62.5 percent completions with eight TDs, just four INTs and has made just three sacks (see above). The Vikings have averaged 20.0 PPG though three games and I see absolutely NO reason they won’t easily top that here. After all, KC is allowing an NFL-worst 36.3 PPG. Now to that struggling KC offense. All reports say the team really misses Charlie Weis and Cassel has sure struggled. His QB rating of 65.5 ranks 31st in the NFL and while his completion percentage is good (65.9), he’s averaged only 142.7 YPG with three TDs and five INTs. With Jamal Charles out for the season, the Chiefs ran for only 81 yards on 27 carries (3.0 YPC) and with the Minnesota rush D allowing just 67.3 YPG (3.1 YPC), a figure that ranks 4th in the NFL, running the ball won’t be option No. 1 (note: Minnesota led the NFL in rushing D from 2006-08 and was 2nd in 2009, before struggling some against the run in 2010). Cassel’s numbers are way off to open 2011 but the Minnesota pass D ranks 29th in yards allowed (299 per) and only Seattle (70.0%) allows a higher completion percentage than Minnesota's 69.6%. Let me add that the Vikes have a modest three INTs in 125 pass attempts. Let me remind all that Cassel easily had his best game of 2011 last week, completing 17-of-24 (70.8%) for 176 yards with two TDs and one INT (102.1 QB rating) vs the Chargers. Also, in KC’s first seven home games last year (Week 17’s game vs the Raiders was a ‘throwaway’), Cassel owned a 14-1 TD-to-INT ratio. This game opened with the second-lowest total of Week 4’s 16 games (not surprisingly) but that’s our edge. Both teams have GREATLY underachieved to open the season and I’d be very surprised if we don’t see this game at 28 points by halftime. Minnesota’s second-half ‘droughts’ have to end sometime, don’t they? This is the week. This game tops 50 points!
Al DeMarco
15 Dime Saints -7
5 Dime Vikings -3
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Steelers
3 Units Bengals
Rocketman
3* Carolina
Boston Blackie
5* Kansas City
Dr. Bob
2* Cowboys
2* Bengals
2* Ravens
Tim Trushel
20* Arizona Cardinals
The Duke's Sports
Tennessee (-1) for 3 Units
Titans' strong defense should be the difference here. Tennessee's top ranked defense should be able to control Cleveland's mediocre offense even with the return of Peyton Hillis. Brown's QB McCoy is doing a respectful job but will be tested today and may struggle, especially with the high winds off the lake projected by game time. On the other hand, the Titans' QB Hasselbeck is doing a nice job directing the offense despite the lackluster performance by RB Chris Johnson. Johnson, who started practicing on September 2nd, should have his legs back against a Browns' run stop unit that is 29th in the league against the run. Tennessee is 3-1 ATS at Cleveland and should deliver again.
Brian Gabrielle
Patriots at Raiders
Pick: Raiders+6
This just may be my longest and strongest NFL week ever and I will tell you why.
As the season moves into it's 4th week the intangibles become more important. One of those most intangibles is travel. Teams playing on the ass end of back-to-back road games spend more time in airports and hotels and less time preparing for this weeks opponent in ideal circumstances. This league is tough enough and every single edge matters. This is a big one.
This week there are a record amount of NFL teams playing on the ass end of back-to back road trips including the Steelers, Lions, Redskins, 49ers, Falcons, Patriots, Giants, Broncos, Dolphins and Jets.
Additionally, now 3 weeks into the season we begin to see mounting VALUE betting against winning teams. Simply, put, square bettors like to bet on winning teams, which inflates the value against the opponents of winning teams. This is the type of value sharp bettors look for.
Of the teams in the first scenario who are on the road this week with a winning record are the Steelers, Lions, Redskins, 49ers, Patriots, Giants and Jets.
So we will combine these two strong scenarios with our premium picks in week 4 of the 2011 season, betting AGAINST winning teams who are on the road following a road game.
New England 28, Oakland 27
Millionaires Club
Carolina
Dallas
Larry Ness
8* Las Vegas Insider - Patriots
The Patriots opened a 21-0 lead at Buffalo last Sunday with Brady and Belichick likely thinking, “so what else is new?” After all, the Pats had beaten the Bills 15 consecutive times. However, Brady would wind up getting intercepted FOUR times, matching his entire total from last year, and Ryan Fitzgerald and the Bills made a HUGE comeback. New England’s a ‘scoring machine’ but the team's pass D is a ‘nightmare’ and it came back to ‘bite’ the Pats last Sunday. Buffalo became the first team in the NFL since 1950, to overcome deficits of at least 18 points, in back-to-back weeks, and win. Fitzgerald shredded the Pats for 369 yards, which is actually EIGHT yards less than the Pats are allowing this season (377.0 YPG is the most in the league, while also allowing 66.7% completions). Aside from having their 15-game win streak against the Bills snapped (third-longest in NFL history for one franchise against another), the Pats also had a 10-game regular-season winning streak snapped. As the team travels west to Oakland in Week 4, the Pats suddenly find themselves looking up in the standings at Buffalo. The Raiders will be playing their THIRD consecutive game against an AFC East foe. The Raiders, like the Pats, jumped out to a big lead at Buffalo in Week 2 (21-3), only to see the Bills come back and grab a 38-35. Last Sunday, the Raiders surprised many by dominating the 2-0 Jets 34-24, as McFadden ran all over Rex Ryan’s defense with 171 yards (team had 234 rushing yards on 7.3 YPC) and QB Jason Campbell “kept the ball safe” (18-of-27 for 156 yards with ZERO interceptions). Believe it or not, it’s been 10 years since these two met in the “tuck rule” playoff game (2001 season). The Pats went on to win that playoff game in OT and then captured the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the Belichick/Brady era. Meanwhile, the Raiders would make the Super Bowl the very next year (got pounded by the Bucs), but are still waiting for their first winning season since that 2002 season. Oakland came close last year at 8-8 (including 6-0 in the AFC West) and are 2-1 after beating the Jets to open 2011. However, facing the Pats off last week’s blown opportunity vs the Bills, is not good news. While the New England pass Di s dreadful, I see no way that Campbell can match Brady, who has 1,326 yards passing in his first three games of 2011. It’s the most passing yards-ever, in a three-game stretch in NFL history. The Pats have scored 30 points or more in 11 consecutive regular season games (still three games shy of the NFL record set by the St Louis Rams in 1999-2000) and New England has been awesome in games following SU losses of late. The Pats went 16-0 in 2007 but are 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS off a SU loss since that season. Going back even further, the Pats are 19-6 ATS off their last 25 regular season losses. I’ll take Belichick over Jackson plus Brady over Campbell, any day!
9* Club-80 Play - Falcons
The Falcons won an NFC-best 13 games last year but were totally outclassed by the Packers in their first playoff game. Still, many thought the Falcons had risen to elite status and would once again be among the top teams in the NFC. An 0-4 preseason is never good sign but optimism was still running high as Atlanta opened as a small road favorite at Chicago in Week 1. However, the Falcons lost 30-12 to the Bears. They did bounce back at home in Week 2 with a comeback 35-31 win over the Eagles but last week lost again, 16-13 at Tampa Bay. With another Sunday night home game (like with Philly) up next week against the Packers, just how HUGE is this game for the Falcons? The answer is simple. It’s MONSTROUS! Sure it’s a road game but it’s against the Seahawks. We all know Pete Carroll was able to capture the NFC West in his first year back in the NFL last year with the Seahawks, despite a 7-9 record. Yes, the Seahawks beat the Saints here in Seattle 41-36 in the wild card round but the Seahawks were no match for this Atlanta team here at Qwest Field in Week 15, losing 34-18. Ryan threw for a modest 174 yards (but three TDs) in that game while Turner added 82 yards rushing. The Atlanta D shut down Seattle’s offense, limiting the Seahawks to 234 yards (Atlanta led 34-10 into the fourth quarter when the Seahawks added a meaningless TD). Ryan has been a much better QB at home in his short career but he has thrown for 319 and 330 yards in Atlanta's two road games this year (yes, both were losses). Turner opened the season with 100 and 114-yard efforts but was inconsequential at Tampa last week, running for just 20 yards (11 carries). Seattle’s defense has played well this year but the offense is nightmare. The team was able to beat Arizona last week for its first win but gained only 261 yards with one TD. The OL has gone thru three different combos in its first three games (Gallery will be out for 4-to-6 weeks) and it’s given up 14 while ‘paving the way’ to 3.3 YPC on the ground. Seattle got past Arizona thanks to two INTs and two missed FGs. NINE of Seattle 12 drives ended in a punt or turnover. Jackson is NOT the answer at QB (60.8% but just 175.7 YPG with two TDs and two INTs / 73.7 QB rating). Seattle entered last week averaging 47.5 YPG (2.7 YPC) on the ground and while the team had 122 yards rushing (30 attempts) last week, the Seattle running woes are far from solved. The team is converting only 30.2% of its third-down opportunities, a good indication of its offensive limitations. Let’s just list the team's numbers. Seattle ranks 30th in scoring (10.0 PPG), 31st in total yards (214.7 YPG), 30th in passing (142.3 YPG) and 29th in rushing (72.3 YPG). In comparison, Ryan has excellent receiving targets in White, rookie Jones plus TE Gonzalez. Expect a bounce-back game from Turner and note that Atlanta is 22-1 when he gets 21-plus carries (had 25 in the win at Seattle LY!). Technical stats note that Seattle is just 7-19 (28%) ATS after a division win and that Atlanta is on a 16-4 (80%) ATS run off a division loss. Both back up all the overwhelming fundamental reasons to play the Falcons, plus that multi-year 80% run on the Falcons gives me my first Club-80 Play of the 2011 season.
Mike Lineback
4'* Teaser Saints & Eagles
4* Steelers
4* Jets
Joe D
25* Bears
15* Bengals
15* Chargers
Blazer
3* Saints
3* Falcons
Lenny Stevens
20* Packers
20* Jets
10* Redskins
10* Cowboys
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play Philadelphia (-175) over St. Louis (Top Play of the Day)
Cliff Lee has won 9 of the last 10 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he has also won 8 of the last 10 playoff games. Cliff Lee is 3-1 vs. St. Louis over his career with an ERA of 1.48 and he is 11-3 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.94.
Play Detroit (+135) over New York (Bonus)
Play Milwaukee (-150) over Arizona (Bonus)
Asa 3- no, chi, hou
ben burns 10-cinn, dal, balt under, 9-hou under, sea
big money nyg
blazer 3- no, atl
carolina sports 4-no, 3-det, sd
dr. Bob 2- dall, cinn, balt,
harry bondi 8 4- sd, 3- hou, jets
inside info 3-atl, 2-balt
joe d 25-chi, 15- cinn, sd
lenny stevens 20- gb, jets, 10- wash, dall
neri 3- dall, pitt, ne
northcoast 3 1/2 ne, 3-no, nyg , op: Balt under
pointwise 4-ne, 3-no, chi, buff, det over
preferred picks 4- pitt, 3- cinn
pure lock buff
underdog 1 tenn,
wildcat 10- clev, 7- cinn, 5- mia
million club 2- caro, dall
ness 10- chi, minn over