David Malinsky
6 * Chargers / Patriots Under 48
Joseph D'Amico
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: New England Patriots +3
The New England Patriots have clawed and scratched to a 4-1 record and just 1 game behind the 5-1 Jets in the AFC East. Trades and injuries were said to have decimated the Pats. No one told them that. New England ranks 1st in the NFL in points with 30.8 PPG. QB Tom Brady has amassed 1203 YP and 10 TDs with only 4 INTs. He has great receivers in Hernandez and Welker who have combined for 571 yards. Welker is 100% back fro injury. The team just reacquired Deion Branch as well. Rounding out the “O” is RBs Green-Ellis and Woodland. They keep defense honest and allow Brady to work his magic. Their defense is holding their own and seems to be getting better with each game. The Patriots rattled off 3 straight wins over Buffalo, Miami, and Baltimore. They face a San Diego Chargers squad that is sitting at 2-4 despite being heavily-touted in the pre-season. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers are notoriously slow starters. However in their 6 contests TY, none were to “top-tier” teams. As a matter of fact, the combined record of their 6 opponents is 17-16 thus far. San Diego has lost outright to Kansas City, Seattle, Oakland, and St. Louis. All teams that they should have beaten with ease. QB Philip Rivers has been yelling in the huddle since Week 1. This is a team that ranks at or near the top in both “O” and “D.” But they just aren’t meshing. Their STs have bee atrocious while their OL has looked stagnant. Rivers was sacked 7 times LW by St. Louis. Yes, St. Louis. Obviously they are missing Cromartie, Jackson, and Merriman more than they thought they would. Pats HC Bill Bellichik will have his team prepped, primed, and ready here. The ‘dog is 5-2 ATS their L7 meetings. The Patriots are 23-11-3 ATS their L37 as a ‘dog, 23-7-2 ATS their L32 games played in October, and 5-1-1 ATS their L7 road games vs. teams with a losing home record. The Chargers are 2-5 ATS their L7 vs. the AFC, 2-6 ATS their L8 games played in October, and 2-7-1 ATS their L10 as a favorite. Take New England.
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket - Seahawks
Chiefs
Packers
Ben Burns
10* Eagles/Titans Under 41
10* Dolphins +3
10* Bears -3
9* Chargers -3
WunderDog
Washington at Chicago
Pick: Chicago -2.5
Pick: OVER 40
Buffalo at Baltimore
Pick: Buffalo +13
Pick: OVER 40
Cincinnati at Atlanta
Pick: OVER 42.5
Cleveland at New Orleans
Pick: Cleveland +13
Pick: OVER 43
Jacksonville at Kansas City
Pick: OVER 37.5
Pittsburgh at Miami
Pick: OVER 41
San Francisco at Carolina
Pick: Carolina +3
Pick: OVER 35.5
Oakland at Denver
Pick: Oakland +9
Pick: OVER 41.5
Gold Medal Club
50* San Diego
25* Denver
25* Cincinnati
Larry Ness
10* Dolphins/Steelers Over
10* Seahawks
8* Panthers
8* Panthers/49ers Over
8* Falcons
8* Chargers
DR BOB
3* Seattle Seahawks -6
Opinions
Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5
Buffalo Bills +13
Bears -2.5
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
DOUBLE DRAGON
PANTHERS +3
EAGLES +3
PATRIOTS +3 (-130)
SEAHAWKS -6.5
VIKINGS +3 (-130)
COWBOYS -3 (-120)
R.A.W. FOOTBALL
5* San Diego
4* Seattle
3* Carolina
3* Tampa Bay
3* Dallas
RED ZONE SPORTS
3* SD Chargers -2
DAVID BANKS
BENGALS
REDSKINS
STEELERS
CHARGERS
BRONCO'S
PACKERS
OVER 44
THE BOSS
500% Untouchable Play Seattle
300% Bookie Buster Parlay Atlanta, New England, Seattle
200% Dog Pound Carolina
100% Silent Asssassins Over Dallas, Under NewOrleans, Over Pittsburgh
BEN BURNS
10* SITUATIONAL ANNIHILATOR - MIAMI DOLPHINS +3
Despite playing without their starting QB, the Steelers managed to get off to a strong start. Last week, Rothlisberger returned and the Steelers won and covered vs. Cleveland. Now with Big Ben back and having successfully played a game, most expect the Steelers to keep on rolling. As a result, they find themselves laying points on the road, against a fairly talented and what figures to be an extremely motivated Miami team. I feel that provides us with very solid value on the home underdog. The Dolphins have managed to go a perfect 3-0 on the road. They're winless at home though and desperately want to earn the home fans a victory. After last week's win at Green Bay, receiver Brandon Marshall was quoted as saying: "It feels good, but we've got to go back home and win in front of our fans." While they did manage a win at Tampa Bay, as a -3 point favorite, the Steelers are still a money-burning 9-19-3 ATS the last 31 times that they were listed as road favorites of three points or less. Off a big win over a divisional opponent, having "survived" the time without their QB, and sitting on top the AFC North, it may be easy for the Steelers to "relax" a little here. That's particularly true given that they've got a date with the defending Super Bowl champion Saints on deck. On the other hand, trailing both the Jets and the Patriots in the AFC East (and having lost to both of them in head-to-head play) the Dolphins have nearly reached "must win" territory. At the very least, they should certainly be fully focused on the task at hand, snapping their winless streak here at home. The Dolphins have fared well at this time of the year. With last week's cover, they're now 8-2 ATS (6-4 SU) in Week 5 to Week 9, the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, the Dolphins have also gone 9-5 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. In a game that could come down to the wire, I'll grab the field goal. However, I look for the Dolphins to be at their best and for them to score the outright upset.
10* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK - CHICAGO BEARS -3
The Redskins have been good to me this year. I've successfully played both on and against them and have yet to lose with them. I feel that this will prove to be another good spot to go against them. The Bears have lost two of three. They're still a solid 4-2 on the season though, outscoring opponents by an average 18.7 to 16.2 margin. The Redskins haven't been quite as good. They're 3-3 and have given up more points than they've scored. On the road, they're getting outscored by an average of 21 to 16.5. A closer look reveals that the Skins may be somewhat fortunate to even have a .500 record. That's because they've been outgained by an average of nearly 100 yards per game and are giving up an average of 432.5 yards per game. That's the worst mark in the entire league. The Bears admittedly have had some issues on the offensive line. Lovie Smith expects improvement in that area this week though. When asked about the offensive line, Smith was quoted as saying: "I'm excited about this week hopefully having the same combination start the game and play together." With McNabb returning to his old stomping grounds, the Redskins did manage a win at Philadelphia. However, they were outgained in that game and they got crushed at St. Louis in their only other road game. They're now an awful 2-11 their last 13 road games. While a lot of people always seem to be down on them, the Bears are still 14-6 SU their last 20 home games, including 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 38.5 to 42 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here, covering the small number along the way.
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE - SD CHARGERS -3
The Patriots are off three straight wins. The Chargers are off two straight losses. No-brainer on Brady and the Pats, right? Not in my opinion. Those results have worked in our favor in a couple of different ways. For starters, they should ensure that we get an extremely motivated effort from the Chargers, as they know they can't afford to lose another one here. Additionally, they've helped to keep this afternoon's line lower than it otherwise could have been. A closer look at San Diego's recent losses shows that they both came on the road. In fact, this is a team which is now 0-4 on the road but 2-0 at home. Those home wins weren't close either. They won those games by scores of 38-13 and 41-10. Dating back to last season, the Chargers are now 7-1 their last eight games here, the lone loss coming in the playoffs vs. the Jets. Going back still further and we find the Chargers at 14-5 their last 19 games here. Note that 13 of those 14 victories came by a field goal or greater. Of course, these teams also have some history against each other. While the Patriots have mostly held the advantage, the Chargers whipped them 30-10 the last time that the teams met here, back in October of 2008. Going back to my point about line value, note that the Chargers were laying -6 points in that game and -4.5 the previous time that they hosted the Pats. The Chargers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS the last five times that they were coming off back to back losses. The last time that they were off two straight reg. season defeats they bounced back was at exactly this time last year. They responded by bouncing back with a 37-7 blowout win. I look for them to bounce back with another victory here, covering the small number along the way. *10
9* O/U BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT - PHILADELPHIA / TENNESSEE UNDER 41
I won with the Titans 'under' the total on Monday and feel that this will be another good spot to do so again. Both teams are off back to back victories. While the Titans have only seen the UNDER go 8-7 their last 15 in that situation, the Eagles have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 9-4, the last 13 times that they were off back to back wins. In the Eagles most recent time in that situation, they combined with Washington for only 29 points. Both teams are very capable defensively. The Titans are now allowing just 16.3 points per game. At home, they're permitting a mere 246.7 yards per game. The Eagles haven't been quite as stingy. They haven't been bad though. They're giving up 20 points per game, incl. 19.7 on the road. It should also be noted that both teams are dealing with injuries to their QBs. Kolb will start again, instead of Vick. That may not be that big a deal, as he was originally supposed to be the starter anyway - and because he's coming off a well-played game. That said, he's also expected to be without receiver DeSean Jackson this week. That's significant as Jackson was averaging greater than 20 yards per reception. That should allow defenders the ability to pay more attention to Maclin and in turn slow down the Eagles' aerial attack, at least a little. As for the Titans, they're QB situation is worse. Vince Young has a banged-up ankle. Kerry Collins has a gimpy finger on his throwing hand. Regardless of which one goes, he may not be 100%. Either way, I expect the Titans to rely heavily on their ground game. I thought the same thing last week and had the following to say, before they faced the Jags: "...The Titans have long been a team that likes to run the ball. They're averaging 34 rushing attempts in their two road games. In their last game against the Jags, the Ran the ball a whopping 49 times. That game stayed below the total, a 30-13 home victory for the Titans last November...." The Titans went on to run the ball 39 times, throwing only 14 times. Including last week's result, the Titans have seen the UNDER go a profitable 14-5 the last 19 times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. It should also be noted that the UNDER is a profitable 9-4 the last 13 times that the Titans were coming off a game on Monday Night, including 2-0 the past couple of seasons. With both defenses playing well and the Titans keeping the clock moving with a heavy dose of the run, I expect those stats to improve here.
MAIN EVENT - GREEN BAY -3
Andy Faneli
For Sunday in the NFL, the Fanelli Kid is making some noise with my 1st Ever 50 Dime NFL Dog Shockcr of the Year, and it is a play on the Washington Redskins plus the polints over the Chicago Bears. This game goes at 1pm eastirn, and as I type my analysis, the 'Skins are getting right around a field goal.
Redskins have been competitcve, and should probably be 4-2 if not for a terrible blown lead against the Texans which included a hail mary from Matt Schaub to send it to overtime.
Despite giving up a ton of yards their defense does seem to bend but not break.
Before facing Indy and Peyton Manning last week they had given up 17-points to Philly, and 16 points to Green Bay respelctively. Two pretty good offenses that the Redskins kept out of the end zone. McNabb and the Redskins seem to have found something that I like in the last 6 quarters.
A tough running back in Ryan Torain, and finally a deep ball threat in Anthony Armstrong. Also remembir that The Redskins are constantly jumping routes and putting themselves in a perfect position for interceptions.
I think they had 4 bounce off their chests against Manning last week. Look for them to actually catch a few as Cutler loves to throw those risky slants and has a tendency to try and be a little too fine. Afterall it's Jay Cutler we are talking about, and not Peyton Manning..Don't expect luck to go his way.
I like the Redskins to win this one outright but getting the points makes me love this release even more.
We are going with an EAR on this one. THATS A WHOPPING 50 DIMES IN FANELLI-LAND. First ever 50 dime play as we start to roll from this point on..
Take the 'Skins, give yer bookies a good smack fa' me, and then have a nice Sunday dinner with your families. I'll see you warriors on the other side.