Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, October 25,2009

Doc's Sports

5 Units Pittsburgh -4.5

4 Units Tampa Bay +15

4 Units Miami +6.5

4 Units Washington +7

ROCKDEMANSPORTS

PATRIOTS

STEELERS

CHARGERS

EAGLES

Bob Balfe

Bucs +15 over Patriots
The Patriots are coming off one of the biggest wins in NFL history as they crushed the Titans. How do you get up for a repeat performance like that when you are 1000 miles away from home as this game is being played in London. New England will be without their 3rd wide receiver and I do think the Bucs cornerbacks are good enough to contain Moss and Welker. The Patriots will be without running back Morris and might struggle a little on offense. The NFL goal is to one day get a team in London. These fans want to see a competitive game so expect the Bucs to play the Patriots a lot closer then one would think. Take Tampa.

49ers +3 over Texans
San Francisco was hammered last week by Atlanta, but they did not have Frank Gore in the lineup and Atlanta is a great football team. That loss woke this team up and with the addition to Crabtree to the lineup they should have their way against a inconsistent Houston Defense. The Texans have improved a lot and have great weapons on offense, but the 49ers can stop the run and should force the Texans into turnovers. Look for the 49ers to show up focused and to steal a win on the road.

Steelers -6 over Vikings
The public is eating up the Vikings perfect record along with the great play of Brett Favre, but there is another QB in Ben Roethlisberger who is leading the NFL in passing yards. Pittsburgh is awesome on both offense and defense and they have size on the offensive line to contain both Williams' on the Vikings Defensive Front. The Vikings will be without their best cornerback and punt returner. The Steeler Defense is going to set the tone early. If Pitt plays their best game this should be a blowout. Take the Steelers.

Carolina -7 over Buffalo
The Panthers have won two in a row and are on their way to getting back on track. Carolina cannot afford a let down against the Bills who will be without Edwards at QB. The Bills have a young and injured offensive line which will make it hard for them to move the ball. Carolina should take advantage of both starting safeties out for Buffalo. Look for both the offense and defense on the Panther to bring their "A" game today. Take the Panthers.

Dallas -4.5 over Atlanta
Dallas/Atlanta Over 47.5
This is one of the rare games that I recommend playing both side and total. Dallas is absolutely monstrous up front and has a height advantage, weight advantage and more experience on every matchup on offense. This Dallas team will show how well they really can play today. It would be foolish to think the Cowboys can totally shutdown this Falcons offense. Matt Ryan has great receivers and great running back and the best tight end ever to play the game. Dallas is going to win this game and in the end it will be high scoring. Take Dallas and also take the Over.

The Boss

500% Untouchable Play Indy
300% Bookie Buster Parlay Indy, New England, NY Giants
200% Dog Pound Minnesota
100% Silent Assassins Atlanta, New Orleans, NY Jets

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
***Indianapolis (-13.0) 34 ST. LOUIS 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
NFL road favorites of 10 points or more tend to suffer a letdown against their inferior foes, especially if the superior visitor is coming off a win the previous week. Such was the case last week with Philadelphia being unprepared in Oakland. Double-digit road favorites off a win the previous week are just 34-56-2 ATS, but the Colts likely avoided a letdown by having an off week last week. In fact, road favorites with a .500 or better record (after 5 or more games) are 37-13 ATS following their bye week, including 6-3 ATS as a double-digit road favorite. Without a letdown situation applying I have no reason not to take the Colts in this game against a horrible Rams team that has lost 21 of their 38 games the last 3 seasons by 14 points or more, including 4 out of 6 this season. If the Rams lose over half of their games by 14 points or more then their chances of losing by that margin are even greater against an elite team like the Colts. The Rams, like most bad teams, are only competitive against other bad teams or if they're coming off their bye week. In 26 games the last 3 years in which the Rams are not off a bye week and not facing a losing team they are just 1-25 straight up, 4-21-1 ATS, and have lost 18 of those 26 games by 14 points or more (4 out of 4 this season). The Colts would qualify as one of the better teams that they have faced, as Indy is out-scoring their opponents by an average of 13.2 points this season while fielding a potent offense (6.9 yards per play) and a defense that has allowed just 4.5 yppl for the season while holding all of their opponents to 4.9 yppl or less. Holding the Rams pathetic offense (just 4.7 yppl against teams that allow 5.4 yppl) in check should be no problem and Peyton Manning, who is having his best season ever, is likely to abuse a Rams' defense that has giving up 7.5 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.8 yppl against an average team. The Rams have faced two good quarterbacks this season and they gave up 10.0 yards per pass play to Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and 9.9 yppp to Brett Favre and the Vikings. Imagine what Peyton Manning can do against that defense (hint: my math model projects 410 pass yards at 10.2 yppp).

My math model actually favors the Colts by 19 1/2 points and gives them a 57.6% chance of covering based on the historical performance of my math model. I have another math model that predicts a fair line and the fair line on this game is 17 1/2 points. If the fair line is 17 1/2 points, then the Colts have a 63% chance of covering at -13 points and a 60.5% chance at -14 points (56.9% at -14 1/2). I'll take Indianapolis in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 1/2 points or less and for 2-Stars at -14 points.

2 Star Selection
**NY GIANTS (-7.0) 27 Arizona 13
05:20 PM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Arizona is coming off a couple of impressive pair of wins over Houston and Seattle, but the Cardinals are stepping up in class tonight against a Giants team that will be eager to rebound from last week's blowout loss at New Orleans. Arizona's offense has been barely better than average this season thanks to a non-existent rushing attack (3.1 ypr), as the Cards have averaged a modest 5.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Kurt Warner and company have only been able to move the ball well against bad defensive teams Jacksonville and Houston and they've been held to 4.9 yppl or less in games against solid defensive teams San Francisco, Indy, and Seattle. The Giants defense rates at 0.6 yppl better than average, allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and they're pass rush should be even better than normal knowing they don't have to worry too much about the run.

Arizona's defense has been good, allowing just 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team, but the Giants' attack has averaged 6.2 yppl this season and is 0.7 yppl better than average with quarterback Eli Manning in the game. The Giants not only have an advantage from the line of scrimmage, but they are less likely to turn the ball over and have a edge in special teams too. My math model favors New York by 12 points and Arizona applies to a negative 29-78-3 ATS road letdown situation while the Giants apply to a 67-29-4 ATS statistical profile indicator. New York is also 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games, including 7-1 ATS the week following a loss. I'll take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.

Strong Opinion
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) 31 Minnesota 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Minnesota is 6-0 straight up and has out-scored their easy schedule of teams (2.2 points easier than average) by an average score of 31.5 to 20.2 points. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 4-2 and has out-scored their even easier schedule (3.3 points easier than average) by just 23.3 to 18.7 points. You may look at that and wonder why Pittsburgh is favored by more than the standard home field advantage of 3 points, but I look at these two teams knowing that the Steelers should be favored by even more points. The Steelers have out-gained their opponents 405 yards at 6.4 yards per play to 272 yards at 4.9 yppl this season, but have been kept from dominating on the scoreboard due to bad special teams and a -5 in turnover margin. The special teams problems may continue but Pittsburgh should average a turnover margin of just -0.1 per game going forward based on QB Ben Roethlisberger's history of 1.0 interceptions per game and the randomness of fumbles.

Minnesota has out-gained their weak schedule by just 349 yards at 5.8 yppl to 342 yards at 5.5 yppl and the Vikings have been just 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense after compensating for strength of opponents. The reason Minnesota is unbeaten and out-scoring teams by 11 points per game is because they've been great in special teams and are +8 in turnover margin (+1.3 per game). The Vikings are a random +4 in fumble margin and it's not likely that Brett Favre will continue to throw just 0.3 interceptions per game given his long history of turnovers (312 interceptions in 275 starts, including 22 picks last season with the Jets). Favre was very careful in the first two games, throwing mostly short, safe passes, but he's starting to throw the ball down field with abandon and the interceptions should start to accumulate at his normal rate. Favre's more aggressive passing the last 4 games has also aided the offense, which has been 0.6 yppl better than average the last 4 games with Favre airing it out more (he averaged just 7.2 yards per completed pass the first 2 games and has averaged 12.7 ypc the last 4 games).

With their improved offense the Vikings do have a 0.4 yppl advantage over a Pittsburgh defense that is just 0.2 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.0 yppl against an average team). However, Pittsburgh's offense is one of the best in the league with RB Rashard Mendenhall running for 304 yards the last 3 games and averaging 5.1 ypr for the season. Willie Parker returned from injury last week but Mendenhall remained the main back and will continue in that role. With a better than average ground game the Steelers are tough to stop, as Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 7.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. The Steelers' pass attack has been particularly potent the last 3 weeks agaisnt worse than average pass defenses (9.1 yppp) and the Vikings have the worst pass defense of any team that Pittsburgh has faced this season. Minnesota is still good defending the run (3.9 ypr allowed), but the Vikings have surrendered 6.5 yppp this season to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.6 yppp against an average defense. Minnesota has had the luxury of facing the sub-par pass attacks of Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, and St. Louis, but they gave up a combined 709 passing yards at 7.9 yppp to better than average passing teams Green Bay and Baltimore, who would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average team. That defense figures to be even worse without All-Pro cornerback Antoine Winfield, who is listed as expected to miss after injuring his foot in the middle of the 2nd quarter last week. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco accumulated just 31 yards on 10 pass plays when Winfield was locking down top receiver Derrick Mason, but Flacco racked up 336 yards on 35 pass plays after Winfield left the game. Pittsburgh would average 8.0 yppp against an average pass defense and they should top 9 yards a pass in this game, as the Vikings' other cornerbacks are just not good. Overall, the Steelers offense (1.1 yppl better than average) has a huge advantage over a Vikings' defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season and at least 0.7 yppl worse than average without their star corner.

My math model predicts a huge 454 yards at 7.2 yppl to 307 yards at 5.2 yppl advantage for Pittsburgh in this game and I favor the Steelers by 5 1/2 points even if I give Minnesota the 4.7 points advantage for special teams. The key is turnovers, which my model projects at just a 0.2 advantage for Minnesota rather than the 2.2 turnovers per game difference between these teams so far this season (Minn +1.33 per game and Pitt -0.83 per game). There isn't any line value here, but Minnesota applies to a negative 92-164-9 ATS scheduling situation and a very negative 13-54-3 ATS statistical indicator that is based on the Vikings' extremely positive turnover margin (it's good to play against teams that have been that lucky with turnovers). With the technical analysis added in the Steelers have a solid 55% chance of covering at -5 1/2 points (56% at -5) and I'll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -6 or -5 1/2 and I'd take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Buffalo 16 CAROLINA (-7.0) 17
01:05 PM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Carolina covered the spread for the first time all season last week against a horrible Buccaneers squad and they weren't even impressive doing it, getting out-gained 4.9 yards per play to 5.5 yppl. I keep waiting for the Panthers to start playing as well offensively as they should be playing, as I see no reason why the same 11 players from last season's good offense suddenly are struggling. The rushing attack has actually been pretty good (4.4 ypr), but quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has been 0.5 yards per pass play better than average for his career (and was great last year), has averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Delhomme just isn't getting the ball downfield like he normally does. Last season his two main receivers, All-Pro Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad, combined for 2344 yards on 236 passes intended for them for a very good 9.9 yards per attempt. This season Delhomme has averaged just 5.5 ypa on 85 passes thrown to Smith and Muhammad. Delhomme is completing 59.4% of his passes, which is the same as his career average of 59.6% completions, but he's averaged just 10.7 yards per completion compared to his lifetime average of 12.2 ypc. Also, the same front line that gave up just 20 sacks of Delhomme last season has already given up 13 sacks in 5 games, and that lack of time to throw may be the reason why Delhomme hasn't been able to get the ball down the field as much. As it is the Panthers have averaged just 4.6 yards per play this season and rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average with Delhomme at quarterback. Buffalo has had to deal with plenty of defensive injuries already this season but they continue to play good defense despite those injuries and I see no reason to adjust their good defensive rating (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) until they show some signs that the injuries are affecting their play. Carolina won't produce much offense if they continue to struggle throwing the ball deep, but the Panthers should run the ball very well in this game.

The Panthers' defense has played well, allowing just 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit, and Buffalo's offense is in bad shape with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback in place of the injured Trent Edwards. The Bills have only averaged 5.0 yards per pass play this season but that number is likely to get worse given that Fitzpatrick has averaged just 4.4 yppp in his career. My math model projects just 232 total yards at 3.8 yppl for the Bills in this game, but that would be enough to cover if Delhomme and the offense play at the level they've consistently played at this season. In fact, my math would favor the Panthers by just 3 points even after adjusting for Fitzpatrick at quarterback for the Bills. If Delhomme suddenly plays at his better than average career level then Carolina would still only be favored by 8 points, so the line wouldn't be too unfair for the Bills even in the worst case scenario that the Panthers suddenly start clicking on offense.

That possibility will keep me from playing the Bills as a Best Bet in this game, but Carolina applies to a very negative 28-71-2 ATS home favorite letdown situation and I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion in this game at +6 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Chicago 24 CINCINNATI (-1.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Cincinnati was a team with a mediocre offense and a solid defense that started the season by winning 4 out their 5 close games. The solid defense part of that equation is no more with the season ending injury to pass rushing DE Antwan Odom, who was hurt early in last week's loss to Houston. Odom had 8 sacks and an incredible 18 solo tackles (for a lineman) in just 5 games and he'll be sorely missed. Based on a formula that equates yards per pass play allowed to sack percentage I calculate that Cincinnati's defense will be at least 0.6 yards per pass play worse without Odom (about 2 points per game) if they replace him with a player or players that can register 4 sacks over a full 16 games. That's a big if considering that the other top 7 defensive linemen have combined for just 5 sacks all season and rookie Michael Johnson, who should get the start in place of Odom, has zero sacks. Odom was injured early last week and the Bengals allowed 9.2 yppp to the Texans, so perhaps the Bengals' pass defense will be even worse than expected without Odom.

For the season the Bengals' defense has now allowed 5.4 yards per play to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team and I rate that unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average without Odom, as there will have to be more blitzing to generate a pass rush and that will put pressure on the Bengals' mediocre secondary. Chicago is just average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Bears should move the ball at a pretty efficient rate today with Jay Cutler having more time to throw.

The real advantage in this game is the Bears' stingy defense that has allowed just 4.8 yppl this season and still rates at 0.5 yppl better than average since losing star LB Brian Urlacher in week 1. Cincinnati is just average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl), so the Bengals are at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball in this game. Chicago also has a significant edge in special teams, as the Bears are once again near the top of my special teams ratings (3rd) while Cincinnati ranks 25th in special teams.

My main math model gives Chicago a 59.3% chance of covering in this game, but my other model makes a fair line of Cincinnati by 2 points even after adjusting for Odom's absence. My main model has been good over the years but it's better when the second model, which I've been testing for the last two years, confirms the line value. The combination of the two models results in the Bears having a 54.5% chance of covering, which is certainly good enough to make Chicago a Strong Opinion in this game at pick or as a dog.

Pointwise Phone Service

3* SAN FRAN, GIANTS, G. BAY, PITTS

2* INDY, PHILLY, UNDER IN PHILLY/WASH GAME

Al Demarco

15 Dimer - Cowboys

Steven Budin

25 DIME - PITTSBURGH

Don Wallace Sports

San Francisco +3 over Houston
Chicago +1.5 over Bengals
New York -7 over Arizona
New Orleans -6.5 over Miami
Vikings +6 over Pittsburgh

Docs Sports

5 Unit Play. Take Pittsburgh -4 ½ over Minnesota Top NFL Game of the Week.

The Vikings just continue to win games but this will be their toughest test of the season playing the Steelers at Heinz Field. This is the first tough road game QB Favre and the Vikings will have in 2009 and I do not expect them to have much left in the tank. This will be the second straight physical team they will face in consecutive weeks and they should have lost to Baltimore, but got lucky with a missed field goal as time expired. Pittsburgh got backdoored last week against Cleveland but dominated the game, outgaining them 543-197 in total yardage. The Vikings are a dog for the first time this season and expect them to struggle defending the pass, as the Steelers take this game and control of the AFC North. Pittsburgh 27, Minnesota 17.

4 Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay +15 over New England

This game reminds me a lot of the Philly/Oakland game last Sunday afternoon in the Bay Area. Giving two touchdowns on the road is a recipe for disaster in the NFL and that applies again even though this one takes place in London. The Bucs have trouble stopping the run, but Patriots do not run the ball very effectively and thus most of Tampa’s weakness is neutralized. This game appears to mean more to Tampa then New England since the Glazer family own Manchester United, a powerful soccer team in England. Most of these games outside the 48 states seem to go down to the wire and the dog has covered the last two games in London. Make it three, as the Patriots win, but it is much closer then what the experts think.

4 Unit Play. Take Miami +6 ½ over New Orleans

The Saints have been the most impressive team thus far in 2009 and will enter this game in Miami with a perfect 5-0 record. That being said, this will be their first tough road game of the season since their first two were at Buffalo and at Philadelphia (without QB McNabb). The Fish are coming off of a bye and with a win here they can even up their record at three games apiece on the season. QB Chad Henne looked outstanding in his first action of the season against New York last game and he now gives the Dolphins a deep threat because of his strong arm. This is a perfect compliment to the Wildcat package and expect the Dolphins to own time of possession in this game. Miami wins this game straight-up and getting points in just an added bonus.

4 Unit Play. Take Washington +7 over Philadelphia

The Redskins needs this game or else they may have a new coach after their bye. Jim Zorn has been stripped of his play calling ability and in comes Sherman Lewis, a coach that had success with the Green Bay Packers during the 1990s. It is hard to figure that the Eagles deserve to be this big of a favorite since they just lost to the Oakland Raiders. The dog is usually the strong play on Monday Night and the talent on these teams is much closer to a ‘pick’em’ game then it is a 7-point road favorite. I do believe that Coach Zorn is liked by his players and I believe they will put forth an all-out effort this week to try and save his job. Washington quiets the critics for one week with an impressive victory at Fed Ex Field. Washington 21, Philadelphia 20.

Strike Point Aports

3-Unit Play. 2-Team Teaser:
Take San Francisco +3 -> +9 over Houston
Take Indianapolis -13 -> -7 over St. Louis

Here's a couple of games we like with the original line, but we wanted some leverage and give some more points to the 49ers and knock off a few against the number for the Colts. I think San Fran can will outright, but you never know what Matt Shaub is going to show up, and as for Indy, well, we chose not to chase a large number and cut that nearly in half.

3-Unit Play. Take San Diego -5 over Kansas City

I really think this Chargers defense is a bunch of trash talking paper champions, but they are going to win this game. Last week everyone yelled that against the Broncos it was a must win, but that was for the division. This could be for the playoffs, which is the bigger picture. The Chiefs have looked better in the last couple of weeks, but Kansas City still isn't exactly producing offense, so here's a spot San Diego can come in and get a win. We have our worries about this team, but back the spot and a must win.

3-Unit Play. Take Green Bay -7 over Cleveland

Not only can this Packers offense really go, but right now Green Bay can't afford to drop any more games if they continue to chase the perfect Vikings for the shot at the NFC North crown. I think the Pack can really handle Cleveland here, not just because the Browns are offensively inept, but the flu bug has hit Cleveland hard and potentially half a dozen starters could be out this week. But regardless of that, we back Aaron Rodgers and his weapons on the outside to do the damage and cover this number on the road.

8-Unit Play. NFL Game of the Year. Take Carolina -7 over Buffalo

We had our eye on this game the whole month of October. When the Panthers were 0-3, we called their winning streak and said 3-3 would be where they would sit after this week, and we're holding strong to that statement. And yes, let us say we know who Carolina's quarterback is and understand the consequences if he continues to plays poorly. But right now the rest of the Panthers are playing so well, we love this pick as a whole. And we do think he is capable of turning in a good outing at home against a banged up Buffalo team. Ryan Fitzpatrick likely gets the start after replacing Trent Edwards in a comeback win last Sunday. And this isn't the first time he has looked good as a sub. One of handicapping tools, our memory, recalls in 2005 when with the Rams Fitzpatrick came off the bench in St. Louis to lead a similar comeback while throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs in an OT win. He looked pretty good vs. the Jets this season, but after that win for the Rams, he started the next couple of games and came right back down to reality, throwing seven INT to just one TD in what were three straight losses. He's not a starting quarterback. And we'll see him hit another wall in the form of a very strong Carolina defense that is playing awesome right now. The Panthers have allowed just four offensive touchdowns in the last three games, while the running game had a breakout performance of 267 yards last week and more of the same is coming against a Buffalo defense that cannot stop the run. Listen to this: the Bills have allowed 962 yards rushing over the last four weeks, and now they face arguably the best rushing combination in all the NFL. Last week we saw a blueprint for Carolina success. Pound the ball with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams and keep Jake Delhomme under 20 throws, while the defense continues to dominate at home. All three of those things hold to form and Carolina makes a strong statement with the best game of the season to this point. They get back to 3-3 and back in the hunt for the playoffs.

Sixth Sense

YTD 20-16 +7.20%

3% SAN DIEGO -4.5
3% NY JETS -6
3% DALLAS -4
3% MINNESOTA/PITTSBURGH OVER 45.5
3% NEW ORLEANS/MIAMI OVER 47

San Diego -4.5 KANSAS CITY 43.5

SD lost a tough game at home on Monday night to Denver. They out gained the Broncos 5.3yppl to 5.2yppl but were out passed 7.6yps to 6.3yps, thanks primarily to five Bronco sacks of Phillip Rivers, who was constantly under pressure all night long. The Chiefs came away win their first win of the season at Washington but they were badly out gained in that game, 5.0yppl to 3.7yppl. They were out rushed 5.9ypr to 3.1ypr. For KC, 11 of their 14 points came on drives of 42, 31, 9 yards and a safety. SD averages just 2.9ypr against 3.7ypr but 7.2yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense is allowing 6.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against Tennessee before the bye. The Rams come off a heartbreaking OT loss at Jacksonville. They were out gained in that game, 5.9yppl to 4.9yppl, including being out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.1ypr and out passed 7.1yps to 5.9yps. A +2 in turnovers, including an interception returned for a touchdown helped keep them in the game. The Colts have not run the ball well this year, averaging just 3.3ypr against 3.6ypr but they make up for that in their passing game, averaging 8.9yps against 6.9yps for a total on offense of 6.7yppl against 5.6yppl. Despite all the injuries they have had on defense, they are still playing extremely well, allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.6ypr against 5.7ypr and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. The one bright spot for the Rams this year has been their ability to rush the ball. They average 4.2ypr against 3.8ypr but just 5.0yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense has really struggled against the pass, allowing 7.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. The Rams do qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 127-65-5. Numbers favor Indy by 21 points and predict about 35 points. Indy has scored at least 31 points in each of their last three games. Meanwhile, the Rams have lost by 19 and 28 points at home against GB and Minnesota. They allowed at least 36 points in each of those games. They haven’t topped more than 20 points all year. Indy is probably good for at least 35 points here and that will make it tough for the Rams to cover. INDIANAPOLIS 35 ST LOUIS 17

CINCINNATI -1 Chicago 41.5

Cincinnati was very disappointing in their home loss to Houston last week. They were out passed 9.2yps to 6.9yps and out rushed 6.5yppl to 5.6yppl. They also lost Odom on defense in the game and that will hurt them going forward. Chicago played well enough to win from the line of scrimmage against Atlanta but turnovers and inefficiency in the redzone did them in. They out gained Atlanta 3.6ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed them 6.4yps to 5.6yps and overall 5.5yppl to 4.5yppl. Chicago continues to struggle to rush the ball, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr but they are averaging 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl overall. On defense they are allowing just 5.4yps against 6.4yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. The Bengal’s average just 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl on offense, making them almost identical to the Bears. On defense, they allow 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl so the Bears defense has played a bit better. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Cincy by one point and predict about 45 points. The offenses are equal and the Bears defense is better, especially with Odom now out. I will lean the way of the Bears. CHICAGO 24 CINCINNATI 21

Green Bay -9 CLEVELAND 41.5

The Packers rolled over Detroit last week 26-0 but there are still reasons to be concerned. While they out gained Detroit 7.8yps to 2.4yps and overall 6.0yppl to 3.1yppl, they allowed a Detroit team that was missing three defensive lineman to generate five sacks to make it 25 sacks for Green Bay’s offense this year. The defense played well, generating five sacks of their own and forcing three Lion turnovers but Detroit also played without star Calvin Johnson. Cleveland was inept on offense again as they lost to Pittsburgh 27-14. They were out passed 10.6yps to 3.8yps and out gained overall 7.3yppl to 3.9yppl. One of Cleveland’s scores came on a kick off return so the offense is still struggling plenty. The Packers have been decent on offense, despite the 25 sacks they have allowed. They average 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense they have stuffed the rush, allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr but are allowing 6.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl overall. They did get Atari Bigby back last week and Clay Matthews started at linebacker so the defense may continue to improve over the next few weeks as well. Cleveland has been absolutely horrible throwing the ball this year and with Kellen Winslow traded during the off-season and Braylon Edwards traded before last week, I don’t see how they will improve on their 4.1yps against 5.9yps average and their 4.0yppl against 5.1yppl overall average. On defense they are allowing 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr and 6.7yps against 6.6yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. Cleveland qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 74-34-1 but GB qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 679-539-42. Numbers favor G B by nine points and predict about 38 points. The Packers have plenty of talent and when faced against a poor team like the Browns, they can have their way. It’s against the better teams they struggle. Cleveland has played five good teams this year and lost four of those five games by at least 13 points. They have had their best offensive production in their two home games, scoring 20 in each game. GB has played two bad teams this year and won by 19 and 26 points. Don’t see how this game stays close here. GREEN BAY 27 CLEVELAND 13

PITTSBURGH -5.5 Minnesota 45

Pittsburgh rolled over Cleveland last week 27-14 by out passing the Browns 10.6yps to 3.8yps and out gaining them overall 7.3yppl to 3.9yppl. While they allowed 14 points, only seven were scored by the offense as the other seven came on a Cribbs kick off return. Minnesota escaped with a win over Baltimore but unfortunately for me they blew a big lead and failed to cover the -2.5 points by winning 33-31. They were out gained in the game 7.0yppl to 6.8yppl and allowed 8.0yps while throwing for 8.1yps themselves. They out rushed the Ravens 5.4ypr to 4.6ypr. The Ravens overall numbers are a little skewed because they threw the ball 14 more times to inflate the numbers. Minnesota was doing a decent job of containing the Ravens but Antoine Winfield went down with an injury and Baltimore started to pick on his replacement Karl Paymah. The Vikings are 6-0 but their numbers from the line of scrimmage don’t match that record. They average 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl, making them average on offense. With that said, they have scored at least 27 points in every game this year. On defense they allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but 6.5yps against 5.5yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 4.9yppl making them well below average on defense. That combined with the fact Antoine Winfield likely won’t play this week could spell trouble for the Vikings. Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to run the ball this year, averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but they haven’t had any problems throwing the ball this year, averaging 7.9yps against 6.7yps and 6.2yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense, they allow 4.8yppl against 4.9yppl and while that is above average, it is below the defense the Steelers are used to playing in past years. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by only two points and predict about 49 points. I see both teams being able to move the ball in this game. Pittsburgh has scored at least 27 in each of their last three games. If both teams get to the mid twenties, and they should, this game goes over the total. PITTSBURGH 30 MINNESOTA 27

New England -14 Tampa Bay 45 (London)

Not much to say about NE’s crushing of Tennessee last week other than they simply steamrolled the Titans. They out gained them 8.0yppl to 3.7yppl, including out passing Tennessee 9.1yps to -0.5yps. That’s right. Tennessee gained -7 yards passing for the game and that included no sacks. They out rushed Tennessee 6.4ypr to 5.4ypr. TB lost by seven to Carolina and out gained Carolina 5.3yppl to 4.9yppl. TB allowed Carolina to rush for 267 yards at 5.6ypr. They averaged 5.0ypr themselves as well. For TB, 14 of their 21 points came on a kick return and an interception return. NE averages 6.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. TB struggles on offense, averaging just 4.9yps against 5.4yps and 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl. On defense, they have allowed 4.9ypr against 4.6ypr, 7.5yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. TB qualifies in a winless situation, which is 86-38-6. Numbers favor NE by 17 points and predict about 46 points. TB has played three decent teams this year and lost by 13, 24 and 19 points. They have allowed at least 24 points in each of those games. Going to be tough for them to stay with NE with such a poor defense. NEW ENGLAND 36 TAMPA BAY 17

HOUSTON -3 San Francisco 44

Houston looked really good with their win on the road at Cincinnati 28-17. They out gained the Bengal’s 6.5yppl to 5.6yppl, including 9.2yps to 6.9yps. While they only rushed for 2.8ypr they did hold Cincinnati to just 2.7ypr. SF comes in off their bye week and will get Frank Gore back after their horrible performance against Atlanta the week before the bye week. SF averages 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr but just 5.0yps against 6.5yps and 4.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.3ypr against 3.7ypr, 5.9yps against 6.1yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll need better numbers out of their passing game to stay with a Houston team that averages 7.7yps against 6.6yps, although just 3.0ypr against 3.8ypr for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. SF has a chance to move the ball on offense thanks to a bad Houston defense that is allowing 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 5.6yps and 5.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Both teams qualify in good situations. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 50 points. This is a good match up pitting a good offense against a good defense and a bad offense against a bad defense. I will have to lean towards SF, as this match up is similar to the opening game when Houston faced a tough Jets defense, which runs the ball well but doesn’t throw the ball well. In that game NY won easily 24-7 with the only Houston touchdown coming on a turnover. SAN FRANCISCO 24 HOUSTON 21

NY Jets -6 OAKLAND 34.5

The Jets come in off their upset loss at home to Buffalo in OT. They out rushed Buffalo 8.0ypr to 3.4ypr with 318 yards rushing. They did struggle to throw the ball, getting out passed 5.0yps to 3.0yps, including six interceptions (five by Mark Sanchez). Overall, they out gained Buffalo 5.8yppl to 4.1yppl. Oakland not only upset Philadelphia, it wasn’t a fluke win either. They out gained Philly 5.0yppl to 4.3yppl, including out passing them 7.0yps to 4.2yps. They were out gained on the ground, 4.8ypr to 3.3ypr. They also sacked Philly six times. With all that said, while they did play well on defense, they had an 86 yard touchdown pass to Zach Miller, where Miller alluded defenders for about 70 of those yards. Take away that play and Oakland averaged just 4.2yps and 3.7yppl for the game so their offense wasn’t nearly as good as the numbers show. The defense certainly came to play and there was nothing skewed about those numbers. The Jets are running the ball well, averaging 4.9ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been solid, allowing just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.3yps against 6.3yps and 4.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Despite the win last week Oakland’s numbers are still awful. They average just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.5yps against 6.0yps and 3.9yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense they allow 4.3ypr against 3.8ypr but just 6.4yps against 6.8yps and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. The Jets qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 546-416-30 and 454-299-21. Numbers favor the Jets by nine points and predict about 21 points. Jets have some key injuries in this game. They will miss Cotchery and Kris ******* but Oakland is still a bad team. They can’t move the ball on offense and are struggling defending the run. The Jets can move the ball on the ground and will use their run game to put Mark Sanchez in good situations. Hard to believe Sanchez will play as bad as he did last week. Without that poor play, the Jets would have rolled over Buffalo. NY JETS 23 OAKLAND 10

CAROLINA -7 Buffalo 36.5

Carolina finally got their running game going last week by rushing for 267 yards at 5.6ypr. They allowed TB to rush for 5.0ypr. They were out passed 5.8yps to 3.1yps and out gained overall 5.3yppl to 4.9yppl. While they allowed 21 points to TB, 14 of those points came on a kick off return and an interception return. The fact they got their running game going could be a bad sign for a Buffalo team that escaped NY with an OT win but allowed the Jets to rush for 318 yards at 8.0ypr. They managed just 3.4ypr themselves. Buffalo did out pass the Jets 5.0yps to 3.0yps but were out gained overall 5.8yppl to 4.1yppl. Buffalo struggles to throw the ball, averaging just 5.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow a whopping 5.3ypr against 4.5ypr but just 4.8yps against 5.7yps and 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. Carolina is now average running the ball after their great performance last week, averaging 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr but just 4.9yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.5yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Carolina qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 109-38-3 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Carolina by four points and predict 39 points. The situation playing against Carolina is extremely strong but this is a tough match up for Buffalo. They don’t stop the rush well and Carolina is getting their rushing game going. Carolina hasn’t won a game by more than seven points this year and Buffalo has only lost one game by more than seven points so I will certainly lean their way but don’t trust them enough to make them a Best Bet. CAROLINA 21 BUFFALO 20

New Orleans -6.5 MIAMI 47

The Saints rolled to an easy win over a very good Giants team last week. NO out passed the Giants 11.6yps to 6.3yps and out gained them overall 7.0yppl to 5.7yppl. They were out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.4ypr but actually gained 133 yards to 84 yards for the Giants. Miami comes off their bye week following their Monday night win over the Jets the week before the bye week. The Saints numbers continue to be very impressive. They average 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 8.2yps against 5.5yps and 6.4yppl against 5.0yppl. On defense they allow just 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Miami has averaged 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.2yps against 5.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl. On defense they have stacked the line of scrimmage to limit the rushing game by allowing just 3.4ypr against 3.9ypr but are allowing 7.3yps against 6.7yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Miami qualifies in a very strong fundamental rushing situation, which is 79-31-3. Numbers favor NO by 11 points and predict about 57 points. Hard to believe the Saints offense will slow down in this game. Consider Miami had the ball for 45 minutes against Indy and still allowed 27 points in that game. NO has scored 45 or more points in three of their five games this year. This game will either be a shoot out or NO will get their points but also give some up in garbage time to assist with the over. Miami has scored at least 23 points in each of their home games this year and every game has totaled at least 48 points. Should be plenty of points in this game. Not going to get in the way of the NO machine yet. They have won each of their games by at least 14 points. NEW ORLEANS 33 MIAMI 24

DALLAS -3.5 Atlanta 47.5

Dallas comes off their bye week, which saw them forced into OT to defeat the Chiefs the week before. While they certainly were forced into OT in that game, they dominated the Chiefs from the line of scrimmage. They out gained KC 8.2yppl to 4.1yppl. And, while their game winning score was a 60 yard touchdown pass, they were still averaging 7.3yppl prior to that score. They out rushed KC 5.8ypr to 2.5ypr and out passed them 9.9yps to 5.2yps. Atlanta escaped their Sunday night game with Chicago with a win but they were beaten badly at the line of scrimmage. They were able to force key Chicago turnovers in the redzone along with their efficiency in the redzone, which allowed them to win the game. They were out rushed 3.6ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed 6.4yps to 5.6yps and out gained overall 5.5yppl to 4.5yppl. Atlanta continues to struggle to run the ball, averaging just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr but they are averaging 7.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense, they have struggled, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.9yps against 5.7yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. The Cowboys have the best offense in the league by my numbers, averaging 5.9ypr against 4.5ypr, 7.5yps against 6.1yps and 6.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They are, however, allowing 6.5yps against 5.8yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. Dallas qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 546-416-30, 454-299-21 and 150-77-7. Numbers favor Dallas by three points and predict about 42 points. This is the classic over game with both teams offenses playing extremely well in the passing game and neither team being able to stop the passing game on defense. The total is a little high in case things don’t go right but certainly a manageable number. My numbers, surprisingly, project a low score. Dallas has struggled to score points despite moving the ball, while Atlanta has allowed plenty of yards but kept points off the board. Those numbers should even out if both teams continue to gain and allow the same amount of yards over the course of the season. I’ll respect the numbers to stay away from the over and Dallas could get comfortable with the run game, which could keep the scoring down. Good situation for Dallas coming off their bye week and much healthier for this game against an Atlanta team which has suffered some key injuries on defense. DALLAS 27 ATLANTA 13

NY GIANTS -7 Arizona 46

The Giants were steamrolled at NO last week by a very hot Saints team. They were out passed 11.6yps to 6.3yps and out gained overall 7.0yppl to 5.7yppl. Arizona beat a banged up Seattle team easily in their 27-3 win. They out gained Seattle 4.8yppl to 2.8yppl, including out passing them 6.3yps to 3.3yps and out rushing them 2.4ypr to 1.3ypr. Obviously the 2.4ypr isn’t good and continued a bad sign for Arizona this year but their rush defense has been solid this year although it will get tested this weekend. Arizona continues to really struggle to run the ball, averaging 2.9ypr against 4.1ypr but 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl, making them average on offense so far this year. The defense is allowing just 2.8ypr against 3.7ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The Giants average 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and 7.8yps against 6.4yps for a total of 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr but Arizona hasn’t shown they can take advantage with their rushing game. They allow just 5.2yps against 5.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl, which could make it tough for Arizona to move the ball in this game, especially if Boldin misses this game. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Giants by eight points and predict about 49 points. This doesn’t appear to be a good match up for Arizona. They are not a physical team and there’s a good chance the Giants will put pressure on Kurt Warner most of this game. Meanwhile, the Giants should be able to run the ball despite Arizona’s good numbers against the rush. NY GIANTS 30 ARIZONA 20

Philadelphia -7 WASHINGTON 37.5

Philly lost a game that should have never been close last week on the road at Oakland. They simply over looked a bad Raider team. They were sacked six times and managed just 4.2yps, while averaging 4.8ypr and 4.3yppl overall. While Oakland averaged 5.0yppl and 7.0yps, 86 of those yards came on a Zach Miller touchdown pass, where Miller managed to allude Philly defenders for about 70 of those yards. The play was certainly a fluke and without that play, Oakland would have averaged just 3.7yppl and 4.2yps. They held Oakland to just 3.3ypr. Philly’s numbers have come back to the pack, as they average just 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. They are playing pretty good defense, allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.0yps against 5.4yps and 4.4yppl against 4.7yppl. Washington can’t run the ball as they average just 4.0ypr against 4.6ypr and just 6.0yps against 6.8yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.7yppl. When you consider all the bad teams they have played so far, you can see why they are switching play callers this week. On defense, they have been decent, allowing just 4.6yppl against 4.8yppl. There are situations favoring both teams. Numbers favor Philly by seven points and predict about 32 points. Philly is 3-2 SU their last five here in Washington but those wins were by just 2, 3 and 8 points so it has not been easy. Prior to last weeks debacle, Philly had disposed of the bad teams easily winning by 28, 20 and 19 points, scoring at least 33 points in each of those games. Hard to say what we will get from Washington. They have lost only one game by more than six points and that was by eight points last week but they haven’t exactly faced a good team yet this year other than the Giants. In that game they were down and beaten badly before getting a late score to lose by six points. The most points they scored this year is 17 points but they haven’t allowed more than 23 points in a game either. PHILADELPHIA 23 WASHINGTON 9

BEN BURNS

PERSONAL FAVORITE! (AFTERNOON ROUT!)

I'm laying the points with DALLAS. With a 4-1 SU/ATS record, Matt Ryan and the Falcons have shown that last year was no fluke. That said, this is a tough spot for them. They're off a hard-fought "prime-time" win over the Bears last Sunday Night and they've got a huge divisional showdown with the undefeated and division-leading Saints on deck. While the Falcons are off that tough victory, (they were outgained by a 373-253 margin!) the Cowboys had last week off. The fact that the Cowboys had last week off is significant. For starters, they had several nagging injuries and the week off has providing some important 'healing time.' Also, the Cowboys weren't playing up to their potential, so the time off came at a good time, in that regard. Additionally, the Cowboys have won their two previous games, following byes, under coach Wade Phillips. Last season, the Cowboys entered their bye week off a 35-14 loss at New York and having gone just 1-5 ATS their previous six games. However, the time off seemed to refresh them, as they went 3-0 SU/ATS in their next three games, following the bye. The previous season, the Cowboys won six straight games after their bye, including a convincing 38-17 win at Philadelphia in the week immediately following the bye. Looking back further and we find the Cowboys at a profitable 16-8 ATS (18-6 SU) the last 24 times that they were coming off a bye. As impressive as their 4-1 record sounds, it should be noted that the Falcons were beaten pretty badly (26-10) by the Patriots, so it's not like they're unbeatable. Coincidentally, the Falcons entered that game having won back to back games, as they do for this afternoon's game. Therefore, it's worth noting that, including the loss to the Pats, the Falcons are now 0-7 ATS the last seven times that they were coming off back to back victories. This game has extra significance for linebacker Keith Brooking. Brooking, a Georgia native, played his college football at Georgia Tech. He also spent his first 11 seasons with the Falcons, before signing with Dallas in the offseason. He's been a big plus to Phillips' defense, as he leads the Cowboys with 29 solo tackles. Naturally, Brooking will be "fired up" to face his former team. He was quoted as saying: "I'd be lying to you if I was like, 'Ah, I'm not trying to prove to those guys that I can still do it at a high level...'" Speaking of the Dallas defense, it should be noted that the Cowboys have 10 sacks their last three games - after having none in their first three. As for the offense, the Cowboys' 420 yards per game ranks second in all of football - second to only the Saints - well ahead of Atlanta's 327 per game. In addition to it being a big game for Brooking, this is a big game for the entire Cowboys team. A loss here and they fall to .500. With the Giants and Eagles both playing well, that may be a tough hole to dig themselves out of. As running back Tashard Choice had to say: "It's time to exert ourselves and get an identity for our team. We need a big push for the second quarter of the season. We've got to be ready to make a move, to get ourselves on track." I expect the Cowboys, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS their last five against the NFC South, to do just that, covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

#1 NFL GAME OF THE MONTH!

I'm taking the points with MIAMI. Its true that the Saints have looked good. Ok, really good. I don't think it's a "fluke" either. As I mentioned when I took them vs. the Giants last week, they've always been good offensively and this year, they're also playing better on the defensive side of the ball. That said, I also think the Dolphins are better than a lot of people think. Let's not forget that this team won the AFC East last season. Also, since starting the season with three straight losses, they're now coming off back to back victories. Additionally, everyone else has seen how impressive the Saints have looked and the perception that they're "unbeatable" has driven this line way up. Looking at the Dolphins' losses and we find that two of them came on the road and that the three losses all came vs. top tier teams, the Falcons, Colts and Chargers. The Dolphins are 2-1 at home and the lone loss came by four points vs. the Colts, a game which they dominated statistically. Note that the Colts, a team which currently has an identical 5-0 record as the Saints, were only favored by three points when they played here. Now we're getting a much bigger line. I believe that provides us with plenty of value. Looking back a bit further and we find the Fish with six wins in their last eight games here. In addition to playing at home and getting a large handful of points to work with, I believe that the scheduling situation favors the Dolphins. Yes, they're coming off back to back divisional games and they've got another pair of divisional games on deck. That's not normally an ideal situation. However, they're also coming off a bye week and having seen what the Saints have been doing to the rest of the league, they know they certainly can't afford to get caught 'looking ahead.' Note that the bye week should allow linebacker Jerry Porter to return to the lineup. Additionally, note that the Dolphins were 6.5 point home underdogs (sound familiar?) following their bye last season. They responded by knocking off San Diego outright. They dominated that game, too. Miami had 23 first downs to San Diego's 10 and held the ball for nearly 37 minutes. As for the Saints, they're off a huge "statement win" over the Giants AND they've got another very big game vs. Atlanta, their primary division rival, on deck. That's followed by another division game (Carolina). In other words, in my opinion, they very easily could get caught looking past Miami. After last week's impressive performance, they could also be starting to "pat themselves on the back" a little. Its also worth noting that Drew Brees is 0-3 vs. the Dolphins. The Dolphins can run the ball (1st in NFL) AND they can stop the run, ranking third best in the league in that category. Since Henne became the starter, they're also getting improved QB play while avoiding turning the ball over. They're 7-3 ATS their last 10 games played in October. Playing their third straight at home, I believe they've got what it takes to hand the Saints their first loss. *10 GOM