igz1 sports
3* Minnesota +6
DOUBLE DRAGON
COLTS -13.5
PACKERS -9
VIKINGS +7 (-130)
PATRIOTS -14 (-120)
SAINTS -6
COWBOYS -4.5
GIANTS -7
EAGLES -7
Inside Corner
5 Units Chicago +1
2 Units Minnesota +7
2 Units Cleveland +9.5
2 Units Cleveland/GB Over 41
5DimeSports
5 Dime Play Take San Francisco +3.5 (Buy the half if you can't get it) San Francisco coming off a bye and getting Frank Gore back is a situation I like as an underdog. Considering the 49ers were embarrassed at home by the Falcons, you got to think coach Mike Singletary has ingrained the thought of having too much confidence and the importance of tackling your opponent. Houston is coming off a big win against Cincinnati and a let down is in effect this week. Houston is 30th in rushing yards per game and 24th in rushing yards allowed per game. You can expect Schaub to pass the ball and score, but once San Francisco starts hitting him, you can expect him to fold. San Francisco is ranked 5th in covering the spread with a 4-1 record and Houston is ranked 15th in covering the spread with a 3-3 record. Houston is 1-3 ats with a spread of -6.5 or less. San Francisco is 2-0 ats as an underdog this season.
Betting System In Play: Any team - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. (30-7 ATS) Play = SAN FRANCISCO against the spread
Trends I like
* Gary kubiak is 0-8 ats versus good rushing defenses—allowing <=90 rushing yards/game as the coach of Houston. the average score was kubiak 17.9, oPPonent 34
* 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
* 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
* 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* 49ers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
3 DIME BONUS
Take Over 44 I expect this game to be pretty exciting with these two teams battling it out as Houston has power and San Francisco trys to regain their edge. SAN FRANCISCO: 10-0 OVER away after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992....15-3 OVER away versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992....32-14 OVER versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992....13-4 OVER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992....35-19 OVER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
Anythony Redd
50 Dime Texans (Buy down the Texans to -2.5)
10 Dime Colts
10 Dime Falcons
10 Dime Falcons-Cowboys Over
FRANK PATRON
20000 UNIT NFL LOCK
MINNESOTA VIKINGS +6
Triple Threat Sports
MLB PLAYOFFS TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR!!
5* LA Angels/NY Yankees OVER
Things were cold in the Bronx for the first two games, but the weather report indicates low 50's for this game, and those are conditions much better suited to an Over. Looking at the raw numbers, note that the Yankees are scoring 5.4 runs per game in the playoffs while the Angels are getting 4.1 rpg, and that number goes up to around five per game if the two cold weather games of this series are taken away. Starting pitching wise, Saunders comes into this with a 5.55 career ERA against the Yankees while Pettitte has a 5.22 career ERA against the Angels. Also, Pettitte has a 4.59 Home ERA this season while Saunders has a 4.94 Away ERA. In all three stat categories, if thing go towards average (9.5, 10.77, 9.53), this will be an Over game, but there is good reason to think more than the average will be attained, as these two teams have combined for 39 hits in the last two contests, many of those coming against bullpens that have not been incredibly effective for either side. Also, series history indicates a play on the Over, as the series is 21-12 to the Over in the last three seasons. This looks like a 6-5 or 7-5 type game to us, and the OVER gets the call.
James Patrick Sports
5* Grand Slam
Angels vs. Yankees
Play: Angels
The Angels are on a mission this season as they enter these playoffs with better depth in their starting pitching and more offense. Add the fact that they honor fallen teammate Nick Adenhart every game with his jersey in their dugout and they broke a string of 3 straight years of postseason elimination at the hands of the Bosox. This series features the two teams with the best regular season records this season (NY 103-59) and (LAA 97-65) . The Los Angeles Angels seek to become the first team to eliminate both the Yankees and Bosox in the same postseason and we feel they are just the right group of players and coaches to get the job done. These Angels outscored the Yankees this season (61-55) and outhit them (.315 - .272). Mike Scioscia hands the ball to former Virginia Tech Hokie Joe Saunders as he tries to even the ALCS on Saturday and the southpaw will be well rested. Saunders was tied for the team lead in victories with 16 wins and he has allowed 2 or less runs in 7 of 8 outings of late. With better numbers in his road starts, (25-10 with 3.97 ERA), Big Joe has flourished in cold weather with a (12-4 record with 4.31 ERA) in the month of October. Heat is on Andy Pettite at Yankee Stadium and these Angels believe Saunders is the right man for the job to take this series to a game #7.
Tom Freese
La Angels at NY Yankees
Play: Under
The Yankees are in a 48-18 UNDER System that says to PLAY UNDER on all teams when the Total is 9.0 to 9.5 in The League Championship. New York is 25-12 UNDER with Andy Pettitte when playing a team with a winning record. The Angels are 20-6-1 UNDER off a win and they are 15-3 UNDER their last 18 road games. Los Angeles is 6-0 UNDER their last 6 ALCS games. Starting pitcher Joe Saunders has allowed 3 or less runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. 10* PLAY ON UNDER' (Pettitte vs. Saunders)
Bob Balfe
Yankees -1.5 over Angels +110
Pettitte/Saunders
Stephen Nover
15 Dime - COLTS - The gap between these teams is more than two touchdowns. The Colts may be the best team in football right now. The Rams are in the argument for worst team.
The line isn't as high as it should be because the Rams are at home and nearly beat Jacksonville on the road last week losing in overtime.
But this is all more reason to lay the big wood with Indianapolis. The Colts are rested off their bye week. Peyton Manning is having perhaps his finest season throwing for 12 touchdowns in five games, while averaging 329 passing. He can tear apart a bad Rams secondary that has injury problems.
The Colts have won their last 14 regular-season games. The Rams have lost 16 in a row. They are 11-23 against the spread in their last 34 games as an underdog.
The Rams played their guts out against the Jaguars and suffered even more injuries. The Colts, on the other hand, used their bye week to get healthier. Cornerback Kelvin Hayden and safety Bob Sanders are both expected to play.
The Rams are averaging nine points and have yet to run for a touchdown. They won't be able to keep anywhere close to Manning.
15 Dime - PACKERS - This is another mismatch where the offensively-challenged Browns won't be able to trade points with the Packers' high-powered offense.
Green Bay's passing attack and wide receiving depth is too much for the Browns' secondary. Cleveland just lost its best defensive player, linebacker D'Qwell Jackson. Even with Jackson, the Browns ranked last in defense.
Whatever slight talent the Browns had, Eric Mangini got rid of. The Browns have an inaccurate quarterback (Derek Anderson), an over-the-hill lead running back (Jamal Lewis), no tight end after trading Kellen Winslow Jr. and slow receivers who have dropped16 passes in the last two games.
It's not a surprised the Browns rank 30th in points, 30th in turnovers and 31st in yards per game. Anderson has the lowest passer rating in the NFL.
Star special teams returner Joshua Cribbs is the Browns' best player. He's questionable with a knee injury. A number of other Browns, including their best and only pass rusher, Kamerion Wembley, were battling the flu this week which helped push the line up.
It doesn't matter because Green Bay will win by double-digits. The Packers' run defense is underrated. Only six teams have given up less yards per carry and only two have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns.
15 Dime - PATRIOTS - This is a mismatch of epic porportions, enough where I feel comfortable laying more than two touchdowns something I rarely do in the NFL.
Parity has been drummed into everyone's head since the days of Pete Rozelle. The truth of the matter is that this season there is no parity. There are some elite teams, New England included, and there are dreadful non-competitive teams. Tampa Bay is a card-carrying member of this club.
Forget the Buccaneers of past seasons with their solid coaching and well-operated Cover-2 defense. These Bucs don't resemble those clubs.
First year coach Raheem Morris is in over his head and Tampa Bay's defense is terrible ranking second-from-the-bottom against the run. The Bucs also are giving up a league-worst 8.5 yards per play and have allowed the third highest amount of touchdown passes with 13.
Tom Brady cherry-picked a horrible Tennessee secondary last week with six touchdown throws. He'll treat the people of London to a similar performance against this bad secondary, too.
The Buccaneers aren't going to be able to generate anything on offense either. Josh Johnson isn't good enough to be a starting NFL quarterback. He's an easy opponent for defensive guru Bill Belichick to game-plan. The Bucs are a run-first team, but the Patriots have allowed one rushing touchdown all season. They also shut down tight ends, bad news for Kellen Winslow Jr., the Bucs' only real offensive weapon.
15 Dime - DOLPHINS - This is a bad spot and matchup for the undefeated Saints riding high after an impressive home victory against the Giants.
The Saints are traveling and playing on a grass field against a physical, well-coached Miami squad that has extra motivation hearing all week about how great New Orleans is. The Saints have had two weeks to rest and game-plan having been idle last week.
Can you say trap game?
The Saints' defense is improved under Gregg Williams. But they aren't strong enough in this road setting against a Dolphins offense that is the best at running the Wildcat formation and has strong-armed Chad Henne, 2-0 in his NFL career starts, to throw deep if the Saints stack the line.
In their last four games, the Saints have allowed 5.6 yards, 4.9, 4.1 and 6.5 yards rushing to the Giants, Jets, Bills and Eagles respectively.
The Dolphins will be playing ball control, keeping Drew Brees and Co. off the field. Weather could play a part. Rain is in the forecast, which could slow up the Saints' attack being on grass.
15 Dime - STEELERS - The undefeated Vikings are due for a fall and it comes here on a grass field against the defending world champions.
The Vikings blew a 17-point lead with 10 minutes left at home inside their dome stadium against another AFC North Division team, Baltimore, and were lucky to win when the opposing kicker missed a field goal at the gun.
Now the vulnerable Vikings secondary probably will be without its best player, cornerback Antoine Winfield. He has a sprained foot.
Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for the most yards in the NFL this season. He's having a banner year and has the receiving weapons to take advantage with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and tight end Heath Miller.
Rashard Mendenhall is averaging 5.1 yards per rush. The Vikings' run defense is down a notch from previous years yielding 3.9 yards per run.
The Steelers are more versatile on defense with safety Troy Polamalu back in the lineup.
15 Dime - OVER Steelers/Vikings - Now that the weather report is favorable, expect a lot of points in this matchup.
Those teams with a quarterback who is willing to hang in the pocket can put up big numbers on the Vikings like Joe Flacco did last week. The Vikings have surrendered the sixth-most touchdowns and seventh-worst yards per game. Their run defense is down a notch, too, yielding 3.9 yards per carry.
Ben Roethlisberger is having a career year. He's thrown nine touchdowns during the past four games. Rashard Mendenhall has upgraded Pittsburgh's ground attack since being inserted into the starting lineup averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
Roethlisberger probably won't have to worry about Pro Bowl cornerback Antonie Winfield, who isn't expected to play due to a sprained foot. Without Winfield, the Vikings are forced to use a rotation of career liability Karl Paymah, rookie Asher Allen and Benny Sapp, a special teams player.
Pittsburgh's defense is way down from last year. Losing star defensive end Aaron Smith for the season hurts Pittsburgh's rush defense. Brett Favre has been playing as well as he ever has in his 19-year career. He's gotten in sync with Sidney Rice and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. Favre's passer rating of 109.5 would be a career-high if he can maintain it.
The Steelers still have to be concerned with Adrian Peterson, the best running back in the NFL. Two hot quarterbacks, two overrated defenses and a fair over/under price make this a total worth going over.
10 Dime - ANGELS - The Yankees, Angels and Phillies are the three best teams in baseball. Unless there's a dominant ace going, the price should never be this high when these teams match up.
The value is with the Angels and that's the way I'm going trying to push my baseball winning streak to five straight games.
Before we get to the starting pitchers, Joe Saunders and Andy Pettitte, let's discuss some other factors that point toward the Angels.
The Yankees are the ones feeling the pressure after not closing the deal on the West Coast during Game 5. Thoughts of their mammoth choke of 2004 have to be in the back of their mind. That was the last time New York reached the ALCS and it blew a 3-0 series lead to Boston in an epic meltdown.
The Angels come into New York loose and with renewed confidence. They have won 12 of their last 16 games. They are 10-3 the past 13 times they've been in the plus $1.51-to-$2.00 range. The Angels are not a team to lay a big price against.
The weather is expected to be much warmer than it was during Games 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium. Rain and wind are expected, though. Bad weather elements usually are a negative for the favorite since it can add a randomness factor into the equation.
Saunders isn't the type of pitcher bothered by weather conditions, not being a West Coast guy. He pitched superbly in the cold weather in Game 2 holding the Yankees to two runs while pitching into the seventh inning. The Angels are 44-20 in Saunders' last 64 starts.
Pettitte has had trouble pitching this season at the new hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. His home ERA was 4.59 compared to 3.61 on the road. The Angels have defeated Pettitte in six of the last seven times they've faced him.
Tony Weston
5 Dime Angels-Yankees Over
Yankees-Angels Total
OVER - The Total for tonight’s Game 6 of the ALCS is set at around 9 runs up from the last 2 games of this series. It won’t matter because that won’t be enough runs and I’m taking full advantage.
After staying Under the total in the first two games of the American League Championship Series, the teams played to a Push in Game 3, but combined for 9 runs. Then in Game 4 on Tuesday, the teams exploded for 11 runs, going well Over the 8 1/2 run total. In Game 5, the teams, once again, scored in bunches, putting up 13 runs, blowing well past the 8 1/2 run Total.
Including the last two games, these teams have seen the Over go 9-5-1 in their last 15 meetings this season. Going back a little further, the Over has gone 19-9-1 the last 29 meetings between these two and it has come in 5 straight times in which Yankees scheduled starter Andy Pettitte takes the mound at home against the Angels.
Consider, too, the Over has been the smart play when Anaheim scheduled starter Joe Saunders takes the mound.
The Over has come in 16 of Saunders’ last 22 starts and it is 8-3 his last 11 on the road. The Over is also on a 9-3-1 run when Saunders faces the AL East.
These two will score in bunches once again tonight and go well Over the Total.
Tim Trushel
NY Yankees Under 9
Beatyourbookie
100* Yankees
Ben Burns
Annihilator: NY Yankees