SEABASS
20* LA Angels
Psychic
5 units Cleveland +9 (WISEGUY)
3 units Dallas -4
3 units NY Giants -7
2 units Chicago +1
3 units New Orleans -6.5
THE FALL MIRACLE
ST LOUIS (+14) over INDIANAPOLIS
Even when the Rams are playing halfway decent, they still can't pull it off. Marc Bulger had a respectable game with "only" 1 interception and Stephen Jackson didn't fumble (a miracle), but the Rams still lost in overtime. The Jags controlled the clock and almost doubled up the Rams in yardage, and the Rams got just 1 offensive touchdown. Meanwhile the Colts are coming off a bye and are undefeated at 5-0 while the Rams are 0-5. Don't worry about it. Two weeks ago I went with the Lions +10 at home vs. the Super Bowl champion Steelers and we saw what happened. It was the 2nd time in 4 weeks the Lions were a double digit home dog against a top team. Detroit could not cover the first game as a rare double digit home underdog, but you better believe oddsmakers would not be made a fool of a 2nd time. Two weeks ago I also said to take the Rams vs. the Vikings, as that was one of the highest percentage plays I'd seen in some time in the NFL. I know what you're thinking, how can it be such a great play if the Rams didn't cover. I can't really argue with that so much. Without going into too much detail, the best way to explain it, is that it's the same way a blackjack player can still lose when he stands on a 20 and the dealer has a 5 or 6 as an upcard. I saw that the Rams had Indy on the schedule 2 weeks later but I had a lot of reasons to go with the Rams right off the bat vs. Minnesota. So now I shall go with the Rams again, as oddsmakers have raised their home pay from 6.5 to 10 to 13. I could bypass this game and wait for the outcome and a set up to week 11. Looking ahead, the Rams next home game is with the Saints. Should they fail to cover here, they will once again be a double digit home underdog for that game. That would be a heavy play and a money line play as it will be extremely unlikely the Rams will go 0-3 ATS in 3 consecutive home games as a double digit home underdog. This is basically a free play if you know what I mean, because I can draw even on that game should this one lose. Actually I should say it's a makeup for the Vikings game. By the way, in that Vikings game the Rams fumbled at the Vikes 2 yard line, fumbled again in the red zone and had a Kyle Boller fumble scooped up at midfield and returned the other way. They actually out-gained the Vikings that day and could have easily covered if not for those 3 sloppy fumbles. So, who on Earth thought the Raiders would beat the Eagles last Sunday? I wasn't too surprised because I knew the Raider's defense would play better and it was the Bird's first road trip out west, but I sure didn't call the upset. It really looked like Philly let them win, so take it with a grain of salt. Or maybe Andy Reid didn't set the hotel rules and kerfew strict enough. Point being, after watching that game, if you haven't realized that anything can happen on any given day, then I don't know what else to tell you.
The Rams are bad and the Colts are good, I know, but the Rams shall not fail to cover consecutive home games as a double digit home underdog. Regardless of standings this is a high percentage play and with the numerous dumb degenerates excited for another 2 team teaser with the Colts and Patriots at 1:00, don't be surprised when either the Rams or Bucs come close to notching their first win of the season.
Indianapolis 21, St. Louis 13
Play on: ST LOUIS RAMS
SAN FRANSICSO (+3) over HOUSTON
Last season after the 49er's embarrassing loss at home to Seattle, Mike Singletary stood up on a chair in the locker room, turned around with his back toward the players, bent over, pulled down his pants and said "This is how you guys looked out there!" Now that's motivation. After a bye, they covered 10 at Arizona and went on to win 5 of their last 7 games. The once fierce linebacker on that great Bears team from 1985, Singeltary brings a competitiveness and motivation with him that not all NFL coaches do. And they finally have a QB as Shaun Hill is much better than Alex Smith, who made a career of lighting up weak MWC defenses at Utah. Hill had an off-game vs. the Falcons so look for him to pick it up here as he is capable and accurate. The Niners have excelled in their road games so far by defeating the NFC Champion Cardinals and they would have knocked off the Vikings if not for a heroic long pass play by Farve with 2 seconds on the clock. Take that away, and this game is a pick-em. On the other hand, Houston had a chance to tie Arizona but were stopped on 4th and goal in the final moments after giving up a pick-6 to break a tie. Michael "holdout" Crabtree is finally ready to suit up and will see playing time on Sunday. I doubt he'll be much of a factor but at least it will throw a slight bit of surprise at the Texans' defense. Said Crabtree this week: "I don't think nothing's easy, man. I think you've just got to watch a lot of film and hopefully I get it by game time." Hopefully?
We know how Singletary takes a bad loss, so after the Niners 45-10 loss to the Falcons and a bye week, expect the Niners to come out prepared and ready to go. Houston is improved this season but since their debut in 2002 the Texans still can never seem to get it going when the slate is clean, as they are 3-17 when having a record of .500 or better.
San Francisco 24, Houston 23
Play on: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
John Ryan
New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14.5
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Tampa Bay as they face New England set to start at 1:00 EST in London, England. AiS shows a 75% probability that TB will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 79-45 over the past 10 seasons. Play against any team outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game and after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. NE is again having a strong season and they are doing quite well in the turnover margin category ranking tied for 2nd best in the league and 1st in the AFC at +8. The turnover category tends to ebb and flow throughout the season and the following angle confirms that contrarian fact. Note that TB is a solid 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better since 1992. TB is also in a solid series of situations for this game. They are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1992; 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game since 1992. I strongly believe that you will see greater use of RB Ward in the TB offensive plans. Williams is having a nice season after coming back from his 2nd patella tendon injury, but Ward is a far better receiver and at least as good a runner as Williams. The biggest matchup advantage for TB is with TE Winslow as he will be matched up against S McGowan. Using Ward in high percentage ball control pass plays and then looking for Winslow isolated against McGowan will provide first year starting QB Josh Johnson with solid opportunities to take yet another step forward in his NFL development. Take Tampa Bay.
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Green Bay (-9) over Cleveland
The Packers are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as a road favorite and are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games after allowing 15 points or less the previous game. The Browns are scoring an average of 11.5 points per game on offense while the defense allows 24.7. Green Bay averages 26 points per game. QB Aaron Rodgers has completed over 64% of his passes and has 8 TDs vs. 2 INTs.
100* Play Indianapolis (-14) over St. Louis
The Colts are a perfect 5-0 this season and have won 4 in a row against the spread. They are 4-0 against the spread vs. teams with a losing record and are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games in October. QB Peyton Manning is completing over 73% of his passes and has 14 TDs vs. 4 INTs. The Rams Defense is allowing 37 points per game. The Colts have manufactured 32 points per game over the last 3 games and are averaging 434 yards of total offense.
MLB
50* Play NY Yankees (-175) over LA Angels (MLB)
New York has won 27 of the last 34 games as a home favorite of -175 to -250 and they have also won 5 of the last 6 games vs. Los Angeles at home. Andy Pettitte has won 14 of the last 19 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 4 of the last 5 home games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs.
NHL Hockey
25* Play San Jose (+1.5 goals) over Philadelphia
25* Play Columbus (+1.5 goals) over Los Angeles
ATS Lock Club
6 Units NO
5 Units SD
4 Units Ind
4 Units Atl
BEN BURNS
10* Dallas
10* Miami
BLACK WIDOW
6* Widow Wise guy NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR New York Giants -6.5
Off their first loss of the season, an embarrassing one to say the least, the New York Giants bounce back at home on NBC's Sunday Night Football this weekend. They let New Orleans put up 34 points in the first half and the rest was history in a 48-27 road loss last Sunday. The Giants failed to even show up, but there's no question New York will be extremely pissed off over the loss and come back against the Cardinals playing with an attitude and a chip on their shoulder. Arizona is coming off back-to-back wins, so they are riding high right now. But the Cardinals are about to get knocked off their pedestal by a better, more physical Giants' team Sunday. New York will hit 'em in the mouth early and often with the running game, and Eli Manning will be on top of his game with precision play-action passes. New York beat Arizona 37-29 on the road last year, doing whatever they wanted to offensively against this Cardinals' defense. New York is 2-0 at home this season, winning by 21.5 points/game. The Giants are 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992. The Giants are 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. Arizona is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. The Giants are 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons, covering 88% of the time in this spot. This Giants' defense will force Kurt Warner into a couple interceptions Sunday as they get constant pressure on Arizona's immobile QB, not allowing him to survey the field. New York is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. They have the motivational edge in this one after their brutal loss to the Saints last week, and New York will respond like champions Sunday. Take the Giants and lay the points.
5* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH Falcons/Cowboys UNDER 47.5
The books are way off the mark with this one folks. They are expecting a high-scoring game, but what they fail to realize is that both of these defenses are actually carrying their teams this year, not the offense. Dallas has lost firepower now that T.O. is gone, and Atlanta isn't as spectacular offensively as most thought they'd be entering the season. Both teams are allowing less than 20 points on average this year, with the Falcons giving up 15.4 points/game and the Cowboys 19.6. Atlanta is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Falcons are 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992. The UNDER is 12-2-2 in Cowboys last 16 games following a bye week. The UNDER is 38-16-1 in Falcons last 55 road games overall. Take the UNDER 47.5 points here.
5* AFC "Road Warrior" of the Month Indianapolis Colts -13
The St. Louis Rams had a great chance to end their 15-game losing streak last week against the Jaguars, but they lost in overtime for 16 straight losses. The life has been sucked out of this team, and they won't be able to recover in time to compete with the Indianapolis Colts Sunday. The Rams are 0-6 this season alone, with 4 losses by more than 19 points. They loss to the Packers by 19, Seahawks by 28, 49ers by 35 and Vikings by 28 and the Colts are as good or better than any of those squads. Indy is also coming off a bye, so they are very hungry to get back on the field. Bob Sanders returns this week to the defense, only adding another playmakers to a unit that is allowing just 14.2 points/game. The Colts' offense is getting all the credit with their 27.4 points/game average, but this defense is as good as any in the league right now. St. Louis is losing by an average of 19.2 points/game this season. The Colts should honestly be a 20-plus point favorite in this one. Indy is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a road blowout win by 21points or more since 1992. The Colts are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points since 1992. What's great about this team is that they do not let up when they get on a roll. Take the Colts and lay the points.
4* Oakland Raiders +7
Oakland's Richard Seymour guaranteed his team would make the playoffs following their 13-9 win over the Eagles last week, and he must see something in this team that most people do not see to make a bold statement like that. The Raiders are tired of being the joke of the week in pro football, and they stepped up to the plate last week to do something about it with a huge win over Philly. Oakland is finally getting healthy, and that is the biggest difference because when this offensive line is intact, it is as dominant as about any other team in the league. The New York Jets actually have more problems right now than the Raiders, losers of 3 straight including last week's 13-16 overtime loss to Buffalo. Jets' QB Mark Sanchez threw 5 interceptions in the loss, and he has certainly hit rock bottom right now. He is losing games for his team, which cannot be sitting well with Rex Ryan. He has a lot of pressure on his shoulders heading out West Sunday, and the rookie will fail to step up to the plate. Oakland was 1-4 last year when it upset the Brett Favre-led Jets 16-13 at home. Oakland still ranks last in the NFL in passing offense though at 125.3 YPG, but that weakness triggers an unusual but powerful fade trend on the Jets, as New York is 1-11 ATS in its L12 games vs. teams passing for less than 150 YPG. Oakland is also on a 4-1 SU & 3-0-2 ATS run when hosting NY, and the home team has gone 5-0-2 ATS in the L7 H2h meetings. The Jets are 1-4 SU & ATS in their last 5 road games, including 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games as a road favorite. Also note that Lito Sheppard, WR Jerricho Cotchery and DT Kris ******* will be out for this game due to injury. This is a great spot for the Raiders. Take Oakland and the points.
4* Chargers/Chiefs OVER 44
San Diego has one explosive offense, but their defense is non-existent any more ever since injuries crushed this unit. That's why they have already played in several high-scoring affairs, especially their last two games when they lost to Pittsburgh 28-38 and to Denver 23-34. The Chargers are scoring 26.0 points/game on the road and allowing 29.0 points/game away from home. The Chiefs are giving up 24.0 points/game this season so look for San Diego to put up 30-plus Sunday. Kansas City will put up their best offensive performance of the year against the worst defense they have faced this season. The Chargers are 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. The Chiefs are 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) in home games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Chargers are 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) in road games vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. since 1992. San Diego is giving up 7.1 yards/attempt to opposing quarterbacks, but Phillip Rivers is averaging 7.8 yards/attempt himself so look for both teams to be able to move the ball at will through the air. The OVER is 5-1 in the Chargers' last 6 games overall and the OVER is 4-1 in the Chiefs' last 5 home games. Take the OVER 44 points here.
Kelso
100 Units New England -15
Rated Picks
Chicago Bears: +1 2 units
San Diego Chargers: -5.5 2 units
Pittsburgh Steelers: -6 2 units
Dallas Cowboys: -4.5 2 units
New Orleans Saints: -6.5 2 units
Street Rosenthal
*200 Indianapolis Colts -13.5
I am taking the Colts and the points for the win. I have the winless Rams 0-9 ATS since 10-26-1997 when their previous game was a non conference game and they had 15 or less first downs. I also have the Rams as 1-14 ATS since 11-19-2006 whey they are off an away game and they had 6 days of rest in their previous game. Take the Colts for the win.
*200 Miami Dolphins +6.5
Miami is my Dog of the day play. The Saints are the hottest team right now, but I think they run into a road block with the Dolphins. I have the Dolphins as 14-1 ATS since 1990 after a game where they had more than 145 yards of rushing and their Over/Under margin was more than 8. Take the Points and the Dolphins for the win.
*200 New England Patriots -15
I am taking the Patriots over the sad Buccaneers. The Bucs have not won a game and I dont think they will again against the hot Pats. I have the Buccaneers as 1-14 ATS since 1989 after a game where they had more than 3 fumbles and they passed for less than 225 yards. I also have the Buccaneers as 5-19ATS since 10-01-1989 after a game where they had 4 or less punts and the total was 40.5 or more. Take the Patriots for the win.
*300 Dallas Cowboys -4.5
I am taking the Dallas Cowboys for the win. I have the Cowboys as 11-0 ATS since 1989 after a game that they had more than 3 fumbles and they rushed for more than 98 yards. I also have the Cowboys as 10-0 ATS since 10-03-1993 in a game before their bye and they were favorites of greater than 3 in their previous game. Finally, we have the Falcons as 2-14-1 ATS since 11-22-1998 when their previous total was 44.5 or more and they won their previous game ATS. Take the Cowboys for the win.
FAT JACK
INDY -13.5
BUFFALO +7
DALLAS -4
NY GIANTS -7
SAN FRAN +3
Boston Blackie
5* Clev +9.5 and Under 41
Chris Jordan
400♦ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Talk about teams at the opposite ends of the spectrum, this one shouldn't even be close by the time they head into the locker room at intermission.
Indianapolis is No. 1 in league passing offense (326 yards per game) and completion percentage (73.5), and much of that can be attributed to the protection Peyton Manning is receiving, as the Colts' offensive line have allowed an NFL-low-tying two sacks, just the same as the Falcons.
Now you put that offense into this matchup off a bye week, which was preceded by a trio of blowouts over the Cardinals (31-10), Seahawks (34-17), and Titans (31-9) and you ask one of the worst teams in the league to play keep up? I don't think so.
The Rams, who have now lost 16 straight dating back to last season, and who is 5-33 in its last 38 games dating back to 2007, rank last in NFL scoring offense with just 9.0 points per game and is still just one of three teams in the league without a rushing touchdown, along with the Bills and Chiefs.
And for as anemic as St. Louis has been on offense, I can't imagine what it'll look like off a well-rested defense that has allowed an NFL-low two touchdowns through the air and a league-low-tying six total touchdowns this season. Can you imagine if Indy's stop unit sees the return of star safety Bob Sanders?
It's really not going to be fair, as the Manning is en route to having one of his most successful seasons ever. He's dissected some of the better defenses in the league, not to mention some of the worst, and now he's going up against a defense that ranks 27th in in the league's passing defense category.
I realize we're not too far removed from this being a high-scoring affair, but today it'll be a miracle to see the Rams put any points on the board whatsoever.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Manning take a seat late in this one, once the Colts get up by 28 or more points.
100♦ OVER Cowboys/Falcons - While Dallas is hoping to emerge from its bye week with offensive intensity, it better be concerned with how the Falcons will counter today. They're off to a 4-1 start - the franchise's best record after five games since 2004 - and has one of the more explosive offensive units in the NFL.
Of course it all depends on Michael Turner, whose running antics set up Atlanta's passing game perfectly. Of course, even if he is lethargic, sophomore signal-caller Matt Ryan has been rock solid behind a stellar offensive line that has allowed a sack in four straight games. He is capable of setting up his dink-and-dunk passes for offensive-drive production, or can go vertical with speddy wideout Roddy White.
I do believe the Cowboys will dictate the pace in this one, however, as the Cowboys have won both of their games after a bye in the team's first two seasons under Wade Phillips. And since Dallas has tallied the second-most yards in the NFL this season, I believe we're going to see the Pokes come out swinging today. Felix Jones and Marion Barber are back to provide the 'Boys with full strength attack on the ground, and it appears Tony Romo has found his new favorite target in Miles Austin.
Look for both offensive units to be on blast today, as this total will soar.
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
NFL FOOTBALL LATE STEAM GAME OF THE YEAR
NY Giants -7