Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
10* San Diego Chargers
5DimeSports
5 Dime Play Take San Francisco +3.5 (Buy the half if you can't get it) San Francisco coming off a bye and getting Frank Gore back is a situation I like as an underdog. Considering the 49ers were embarrassed at home by the Falcons, you got to think coach Mike Singletary has ingrained the thought of having too much confidence and the importance of tackling your opponent. Houston is coming off a big win against Cincinnati and a let down is in effect this week. Houston is 30th in rushing yards per game and 24th in rushing yards allowed per game. You can expect Schaub to pass the ball and score, but once San Francisco starts hitting him, you can expect him to fold. San Francisco is ranked 5th in covering the spread with a 4-1 record and Houston is ranked 15th in covering the spread with a 3-3 record. Houston is 1-3 ats with a spread of -6.5 or less. San Francisco is 2-0 ats as an underdog this season.
Betting System In Play: Any team - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. (30-7 ATS) Play = SAN FRANCISCO against the spread
Trends I like
* Gary kubiak is 0-8 ats versus good rushing defenses—allowing <=90 rushing yards/game as the coach of Houston. the average score was kubiak 17.9, oPPonent 34
* 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
* 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
* 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* 49ers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
3 DIME BONUS
Take Over 44 I expect this game to be pretty exciting with these two teams battling it out as Houston has power and San Francisco trys to regain their edge. SAN FRANCISCO: 10-0 OVER away after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992....15-3 OVER away versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992....32-14 OVER versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992....13-4 OVER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992....35-19 OVER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
4 DIME PLAY
New Orleans @ Miami
4 Dimes Take New Orleans -6.5 I just can't believe anyone could go against New Orleans with such a low line and trust me their are people who are. Yeah Miami has the #1 ranked rushing offense, but New Orleans has the #5 rushing defense. Miami is 26th in passing offense and NO is 13th in passing defense. NO is 7th in passing offense and #1 in points scored per game, Miami is 19th in passing defense and you saw what they did to the Giants #1 ranked overall defense and #1 ranked passing defense. O yeah Miami is 16th in points scored. NO is 2nd in covering the spread with a 5-0 record behind Denver who has a 6-0 record. Miami is 22nd in covering the spread with a 2-3 record. Considering Miami lost their first three games and won their last two, I see Miami getting a reality check here. Let me just say, if I lose this one at least I knew I had the best starting hand with out a doubt.
Trends I like
NO 11-1 ATS as a favorite over the L2 seasons
NO 15-5 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons
NO 7-0 ATS away after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992
7-0 ATS away after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992
2 Dime Bonus
2 Dime Play Take Over 48 Betting System Play-Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. (26-6 Over) Play = Over the total
4 Dime Play take Minnesota +6
If you look at the overall ranks for these two teams, you would think take Pittsburgh. But if you dig deeper you will see Minnesota is ranked 2nd in points scored and 18th in points allowed. Pittsburgh is ranked 14th in points scored and 11th in points allowed. Farve has 12 TD passes and 2 INTs this season, while Big Ben has 10 TD passes and 6 INTs. With Jared Allen, leagues #3 sacker, pressuring Ben we will see forced throws and bad decissions by Big Ben. Pittsburgh counters with James Harrison, leagues #4 sacker, but Minnesota's offensive line has allowed less sacks this season. Minnesota is ranked 7th in covering the spread with a 4-2 record and have not been an underdog yet this season, but they are undefeated. Pittsburgh is ranked 30th in covering the spread this season with a 1-5 record, 1-3 with the spread of -3 to -7. Line might even move more in our favor by game time, line started at -4. Farve is on fire and we all know what A.P. can do, take the dog with a chance to win outright.
Trends I like
* Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
* Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
* Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
BRANDON LANG
50 DIME - OAKLAND RAIDERS - Wouldn't surprise me if the Raiders knocked off the Jets exactly the way they did the Eagles.
Let's see, off a divisional home loss in OT, to traveling 3 time zones to the west coast, with a rookie QB who confidence is already shaky, facing an improving Oakland team without all pro nose guard Kris *******.
And the linesmaker sees fit to ask the Jets to cover a near touchdown?
Folks, this may sound really simple but if you can beat the Philadelphia Eagles and their offense at home, you can beat the Jets and a rookie QB as well. It really is simple as that.
I like the way this Raiders defense matches up with the Jets offense. Forget about the Raiders offense. That isn't the matchup that will determine this football game. It will be the Jets offense with young Mr. Sanchez at the helm versus the Raiders defense.
Folks, they made Donovan McNabb look very average. Very average. In fact they made the whole Eagles team look average and that was an Eagles team playing arguably their best ball of the year.
Now they get a Jets team playing perhaps their worst ball of the year and the bottom line is this as bad a situation the Jets could be possibly coming into. Simple as that.
For head coach Rex Ryan the honeymoon is over and the reality is setting in that I just don't have that good a football team.
My 50 dimer is the Raiders and I wouldn't be suprised to see the Raiders do exactly to the Jets what they did to the Eagles and that is win the game outright.
50 dime Raiders
15 DIME, 3-TEAM - 10-POINT TEASER - Going to have some fun today taking 10 points away from the Colts, Patriots and Steelers to prevent any crazy backdoor madness that may occur.
Let's start with the Colts coming off their bye week ready to just shred this Rams team much the way everyone else has. The Colts have put up over 30 points in their last 3 games and have beaten the Arizona Cardinals by 21 on the road and the Titans by 22 on the road.
There is nothing that leads me to believe they won't manhandle this Rams team by at least 17 points or more today.
All Colts teased down.
Same goes for the Patriots. They are getting a terrible Bucs team led by their head coach who resembles Gary Coleman from Different Strokes more so than a head coach in the NFL. Only difference is Mr. Drummond is nowhere in sight to help him.
I had New England 59-0 last week as a 15 dime winner, and I was impressed with how well their offense looked in the snow. For my dollar, Tom Brady and the Patriots are back.
Tease the Patriots down.
I don't see Bill Belichick taking this game lightly at all. He will do exactly what he did last week and that is win and win big. He wants his offense in rhythm, and his defense to get it going as well. I can't see how the Patriots don't win this game by 17 or more.
All Patriots teased down.
The Steelers are facing a Vikings team that has faced the Lions, Browns and Rams on the road. They should have lost to the Ravens and Niners at home, and maybe the Packers if not for 2 critical turnovers by Aaron Rodgers inside the Minnesota 20.
I see the Vikings as a 4-2 team or maybe even a 3-3 team, and when the smoke clears today, the Steelers will bring the Vikings down to earth. Simple as that. They are ripe to go down and with Winfield out for the Vikes, Big Ben will take advantage all day long.
All Steelers teased to get points.
10 DIME - CHICAGO BEARS - They are a very small dog here today but as of this writing the line is +1.
Fact of the matter is, I just don't think the this Bengals team is as good as everyone is making them out to be.
They are off 3 very emotional games with the Steelers, Ravens and Texans and now get a hungry Bears team off a tough loss to the Falcons.
Jay Cutler is looking much better running this Bears offense and as each week goes by the Bears offense is getting that much better.
Lastly, the underdog in every single Bengals game this year has covered the number and I have no problem grabbing this small dog to get it done once again.
Bears are 10 dime dog #1 today.
10 DIME - ATLANTA FALCONS -I don't care if the Cowboys are off a bye week, they are just not a good enough football team to be laying more than a field goal versus a team the caliber of the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons just seem to continue to find ways to win football games, and I love the way they match up across the board with this Dallas bunch.
This game will come down to which QB will be able to make plays, consistent plays and my money is on Matt Ryan.
I love the way this kid has been playing but more importantly, like the way they are calling the plays for him.
This is a game that will go down to the wire and getting 4 points is without question the way to go. I will force this Cowboy team to play 60 minutes of perfect football to cover this number.
For the most part they haven't been able to do this with any consistency and that has been their problem under Wade Phillips.
I am going to war with the Falcons plus some really nice points this afternoon in Big D.
10 DIME - MIAMI DOLPHINS - This game reminds me of the Super Bowl between the Giants and the Bills. You remember that one don't you? Norwood miss.
Funny thing is, you remember what the line was for that game? Yup, Bills -6 1/2. Hmmmm.
You remember the head coach for the Giants? Yup, Parcells, now the GM of the Dolphins.
The key to that game was time of possession. The Giants kept Jim Kelly on the sidelines holding the ball for 39 minutes and it was the key to the victory for Bill Parcells and his Giants.
Trust me, with a bye week to help his head coach prepare for this Saints offense and the gameplan will be exactly as it was against Peyton Manning and the Colts. Keep Brees sitting on the sidelines.
Give the Saints credit they are winning impressively but really against who? Nobody who will attack you in the manner in which the Dolphins will.
In my opinion the best team in the NFL is the Colts, and Miami took them to the wire, which is exactly what I feel they will do here.
And the cherry on top of the Sunday is they catch the Saints in the ultimate flat spot off the big win over the Giants.
Wouldn't surprise me if the Dolphins shocked the world and won this game outright.
10 DIME - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - The San Diego Chargers shouldn't be laying points against anybody right now. Simple as that. They are as poorly coached as any team in the NFL.
Their offensive line is in shambles and coming off the home loss to Denver, a game they had 2 weeks to prepare for, well let's just say they are in for a long afternoon versus the Chiefs.
Kansas City just keeps getting better each week under head coach Todd Haley, who I feel will coach circles around Norv Turner today.
I used the Chiefs as a dog over the Cowboys and they didn't let me down, and I feel today they are a very live dog versus a Chargers team that just can't seem to find themselves.
Chiefs played the Chargers very tough last year losing both games by a single point and have actually covered 5 of the last 7 meetings, and 3 of the last 4 at home.
You throw in a 1-4 road chalk run for the Chargers and this adds up to another Chiefs home cover and possible outright upset.
All over Kansas City again today.
FREE SELECTION - ARIZONA CARDINALS
Tim Trushel
20* Miami
Cincinnati Over
Pittsburgh Under
Carolina Over
MR EAST
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs TAMPA BAY BUCS
PLAY: 3 UNITS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -14.5
This game will take place in England, and with an 0-6 team in the Tampa Bay Bucs, I'm sure there is no focus on football right now, as their season is over. The Patriots on the otherhand, just dismantled another winless team 59-0. The Bucs are allowing 28ppg to teams that average just 21ppg, so their defense is far and away in a mismatch vs a Patriot offense that is hitting its stride once again. The offense is scoring about 5ppg less than the defenses they have played allow, so we have a team that is about a TD below average on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady is beginning to get comfortable, as he has thrown 10 TD passes in the last 3 games to 0 INT's, and his yards per attempt are up to 8.6, from the 6.1 in the first 3 games. Tom Brady has faced 5 teams that allow 25+ points a game in his career at New England. The resulting numbers are staggering. Brady is 107-148 72.3% for 1,490 yards 18 TD's and 3 INT, with the Pats averaging 36.8ppg, average winning margin 25ppg! The Pats offense will put on a show in England and the Pats win by 3 TD's or more in this one.
Scott Spreitzer
Road Warrior GOY - San Francisco
Maddux Sports
5 units Dallas -4
4 units Chicago & Cincinnati Over 42.5
3 units San Diego -4.5
3 units NY Giants -7
3 units NY Jets -6
NORTHCOAST
4* Indy
3* Dallas
3* Caro
PHIL STEELE
4* Indy
3* Dallas
3* Houston Over
ANDY ISKOE
Jets at Raiders
Pick: Jets -6
In their OT loss to Buffalo the Jets ran for an outstanding 318 yards. That’s 3 straight losses for the Jets who are now 3-3. Oakland stunned the football world with their 13-9 win over Philadelphia, a win keyed by their defense that harassed Philly QB McNabb all game. The Oakland offense continues to struggle as the Raiders are averaging just 10 points per game. The Jets’ defense has struggled to stop the run in their last 4 games and has now lost key run stopper Jenkins for the season. But Oakland’s offense poses less of a threat to the Jets’ defense than has any other foe this season. Two teams have rushed for over 200 yards against the Raider defense. Last week’s results have kept this line under a TD but the Jets have shown they are a solid football team notwithstanding their 3 straight losses. They are stepping down in class here and with a home rematch with Miami up next they cannot afford to lose a very winnable game to a foe they clearly out-talent. Look for the Jets to wear down the Raiders. N Y Jets win by from 10 to 13 points.
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
ONE AND ONLY NFL BLOWOUT BOMB
Chicago -1
NFL ROAD WARRIOR GAME OF THE YEAR
New Orleans -6
Lenny Stevens
20* PITT
20* CAR
10* TB
10* Mia
10* SD
Dominic Fazzini
30 Dime - GIANTS
10 Dime - Colts
GIANTS
Let me start by saying this: The Cardinals suck playing in the Meadowlands.
Arizona has played at Giants Stadium against both the Giants and Jets 17 times since moving to Phoenix in 1988, and it has won there just twice, and the last time was in 1999.
The Cardinals' running game is horrendous, averaging just 57.6 yards per game, and that doesn't bode well for the health of quarterback Kurt Warner.
The Giants were unable to sack Saints quarterback Drew Brees last week in New Orleans' 48-27 victory last week after getting 15 in starting 5-0. But with Arizona's inability to balance things out on offense, New York is going to pin its ears back in an effort to keep constant pressure on Warner, who has a propensity to fumble the ball on occasion when harrassed.
The Giants' running game, which ranks fifth in the league with 147.7 yards per game, should help keep Arizona's offense off the field, and New York QB Eli Manning should be able to move the ball against the Cards' pass defense. The Giants average nearly 30 points per game, and they might surpass that total tonight.
Arizona went 0-5 on the East Coast last year during the regular season, and the Giants are going to be determined to bounce back with a big victory after getting embarassed by the Saints last week. Take New York to win by double digits tonight.
COLTS
The Rams might be the worst team in football, and now they get to play an undefeated Colts team that is coming off a bye week. That's not a good situation for St. Louis to be in today.
Peyton Manning is having perhaps the best season of his career, as hard as that is to believe, completing 73.5 percent of his passes for 1,645 yards and 12 touchdowns with just four interceptions.
And now he gets to tee off against a St. Louis defense that is allowing 252 yards through the air per game, ranking 27th in the NFL.
The Rams are averaging a league-worst nine points per game, and although they should be slightly better with Marc Bulger back at quarterback, they have nowhere near the firepower to stay close to Indianapolis.
To make things even worse for St. Louis, Colts safety Bob Sanders might return to the lineup today, and cornerback Kelvin Hayden should be back after missing three games with a hamstring injury.
The Rams have lost 16 straight games, and they could get demoralized early facing the quick-strike attack of Manning and Co. And Indianapolis is 4-0 straight up and ATS after a bye.
The Colts also are 4-0 ATS overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-1-1 on the road, 9-2 in October and 12-4 on the road vs. NFC opponents. St. Louis, meanwhile, is 8-17 ATS overall, 3-9 at home and 3-12 as a home underdog. Take Indianapolis to win by more than 20 points today.
Bobby Maxwell
500-Unit NFL Book Buster - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Dolphins have not been able to deal with the Colts’ passing game or the Chargers’ passing game. There’s no way in hell Miami’s defensive backfield is ready for the Saints’ onslaught that is about to hit them.
New Orleans has the NFL’s most prolific offense, averaging 430 yards per game and 38.4 points per contest. Throw in the fact their defense isn’t all that bad and this looks like a perfect matchup for the Saints.
Miami is going to try to control the clock with the rushing game, and while it is the league’s best rushing attack at 177 yards per game, they can’t eat up the entire quarter with each possession. The Wildcat offense will do its normal thing and put up some yards, but the Dolphins aren’t going to be able to keep up with the Saints.
This game is going to resemble the Dolphins-Colts Monday Night Football game that saw Miami dominate the clock, but the Colts come out and score in four or five plays whenever they got it.
New Orleans is on several ATS runs, including 15-5-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 4-0 against teams with losing records, 17-5 as a favorite and 6-1 as a non-division road favorite. Miami is on ATS slides of 15-36-1 at home, 1-4 as an underdog, 2-5 as a home ‘dog and 0-6 against NFC squads.
This game could get ugly for the Dolphins quickly. Lay the chalk and play the Saints.
100-Unit AFC West Wipeout - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The San Diego Chargers have their backs against the wall and have got to shift to must-win mode. This team is too talented offensively to think they aren’t going to walk into Arrowhead Stadium today and light up the Chiefs’ defense.
I know these teams played two thrillers last season, but San Diego has got too much talent on offense to be stifled in this one. Philip Rivers and the passing game is ranked fifth in the NFL, getting 284 yards per game through the air. Rivers has several talented targets in Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd and Chris Chambers. Look for the Chargers’ coaching staff to put the ball in Rivers’ hands and let him go win this game with his arm.
Kansas City got its first win of the season last week in Washington, scoring a 14-6 win as 6 ½-point underdogs. The Chiefs just can’t seem to score enough points to be able to stay in this game. And their defense is giving up 24 points a game, including ugly losses to Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants when they gave up 26 points or more. Offensively, Kansas City is 30th in the NFL, putting up just 259.7 yards per game.
The Chiefs are on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 4-12 at home and 2-5 as an underdog. Meanwhile, San Diego is on several solid ATS runs, including 21-9-4 against AFC West opponents and 6-3 in the last nine as a favorite in AFC West games.
Loving the Chargers today in this must-win situation. Lay the chalk and play San Diego.
Insider Sports Report
4* Indianapolis -13.5 over St. Louis
3* Chicago/Cincinnati OVER 42.5
3* New England -14 over Tampa Bay